Nobody had ever looked inside the wreck. They didn't have the means to do it, so we created technology to do it.

在此之前，没有人看过残骸的内部。他们没有所需要的技术， 所以我们就创造出相应的技术。


So, you know, here I am now, on the deck of Titanic, sitting in a submersible, and looking out at planks that look much like this, where I knew that the band had played.

要知道，我当时就在泰坦尼克的甲板上， 坐在一个潜水器内， 看着就如同这个的木质甲板， 心想着曾在这里表演的乐队。


And I'm flying a little robotic vehicle through the corridor of the ship.

我操控着一个小型的机器人探索器 飞过船内的走廊。


When I say, "I'm operating it," but my mind is in the vehicle.

虽然我在操控着它， 我的思想却是在这个探索器内，


I felt like I was physically present inside the shipwreck of Titanic.

我感觉我确确实实地 置身在泰坦尼克的残骸中。


And it was the most surreal kind of deja vu experience I've ever had, because I would know before I turned a corner what was going to be there before the lights of the vehicle actually revealed it, because I had walked the set for months when we were making the movie. And the set was based as an exact replica on the blueprints of the ship.

那是我所经历过的最难以置信的 此曾相识的感觉， 因为在机器人的探测灯照亮周围之前， 我就已经知道每个转角背后 所隐藏的一切， 原因就在于电影制作的过程中， 我花费了很多个月的时间在这个场景中走来走去。 而摄影棚中的道具就是依照这个船的设计图 所制造出来的一个真实模型。


So, it was this absolutely remarkable experience.

所以那一次的经历是非比寻常的，


And it really made me realize that the telepresence experience -- that you actually can have these robotic avatars, then your consciousness is injected into the vehicle, into this other form of existence.

它使我感受到了一种 远程监控的经历── 我们甚至上拥有这些机器人形态的阿凡达， 我们将我们的思想意识注入其中， 注入另外一种存在形式中。


And it may be a little bit of a glimpse as to what might be happening some decades out as we start to have cyborg bodies for exploration or for other means in many sort of post-human futures that I can imagine, So, having done these expeditions, and really beginning to appreciate what was down there, such as at the deep ocean vents where we had these amazing, amazing animals --

也许这一切可以让我们大致猜想几十年后的世界 会是怎样。 作为一名科学小说迷 我可以想象各种 后人类社会的未来， 利用半机械人 来进行探险 以及其他活动。 所以通过这些探险 我开始真正地欣赏海底的美妙， 比如那些生活在深海裂口处的 奇妙的动物们。


they're basically aliens right here on Earth.

它们算得上就是地球上的外星生物。


They live in an environment of chemosynthesis.

它们住在一个化学合成的环境中，


They don't survive on sunlight-based system the way we do.

完全不需要我们赖以生存的 太阳光照。 所以当你看到那些


And so, you're seeing animals that are living next to water plumes.

生活在500度高温的海底地柱周边的 动物的时候，


你觉得它们完全不可能存活。


At the same time I was getting very interested in space science as well -- again, it's the science fiction influence, as a kid.

与此同时， 我也开始对太空科技感兴趣。 这自然也是受到了年少时候科学小说的影响。


And I wound up getting involved with the space community, really involved with NASA, sitting on the NASA advisory board, planning actual space missions, going to Russia, going through the pre-cosmonaut biomedical protocols, and all these sorts of things, to actually go and fly to the international space station with our 3D camera systems.

结果我和太空社区建立了 很紧密的联系， 和美国航天局合作， 成为了他们咨询委员会的一员， 策划真正的太空任务， 前往俄罗斯，参观宇航员之前的 生物科学协议 等等一系列的事情 以便于我们带着我们的3D摄影器材 前往国际空间站。


But what I wound up doing was bringing space scientists with us into the deep.

但我到头来所做的，却是说服太空科学家们 跟随我们前往海洋深处，


And taking them down so that they had access -- astrobiologists, planetary scientists, people who were interested in these extreme environments -- taking them down to the vents, and letting them see, and take samples and test instruments, and so on.

让他们可以切身体验。 太空生物学家、天体科学家 等等对极端环境感兴趣的人们 都被我们带到深海裂口处，让他们能亲眼观看、 采取样品、探测仪器等等。


So, here we were making documentary films, but actually doing science, and actually doing space science.

所以我们在制作记录片的同时 却是在研究科学 研究太空科学。


I'd completely closed the loop between being the science fiction fan, and doing this stuff for real.

我把小时候 身为科学小说迷的经历 和真实从事这一行业的经历


And you know, along the way in this journey of discovery, I learned a lot.

联系到了一起。 在这个探索之旅中， 我也是 学到了很多东西。


I learned a lot about science. But I also learned a lot about leadership.

我学到了很多关于科学的东西。但我也学会了很多 关于领袖才能的东西。


Now you think director has got to be a leader, leader of, captain of the ship, and all that sort of thing.

你觉得导演必须得是一名领袖人才， 是领导、是掌舵者之类的。 但在这些探险之前，


I didn't really learn about leadership until I did these expeditions.

我对领袖才能却是一无所知。


Because I had to, at a certain point, say, "What am I doing out here?

因为我终究要问自己： “我到底在做些什么呢？


Why am I doing this? What do I get out of it?"

我为什么要做这些事情？我从中得到什么呢？”


We don't make money at these damn shows.

这些该死的纪录片根本不赚钱。


We barely break even. There is no fame in it.

我们想回本都不容易。没名没份的。


People sort of think I went away between "Titanic" and "Avatar" and was buffing my nails someplace, sitting at the beach.

很多人都认为我在《泰坦尼克》和《阿凡达》两部电影之间 退居幕后，坐在沙滩上面 修指甲罢了。


Made all these films, made all these documentary films for a very limited audience.

但事实上我制作了这些电影，这些纪录片， 只有很少数的观众看过。


No fame, no glory, no money. What are you doing?

没名、没份、没钱。你到底在做什么呢？


You're doing it for the task itself, for the challenge -- and the ocean is the most challenging environment there is -- for the thrill of discovery, and for that strange bond that happens when a small group of people form a tightly knit team.

我做这一切是为了这个经历本身的价值 为了这个挑战── 而大海就是最富挑战的环境， 我做这一切也是为了探索发现的惊奇感， 为了那种一小群人组成一个紧密的团队时 所撞击出的奇妙的凝聚力。


Because we would do these things with 10, 12 people, working for years at a time, sometimes at sea for two, three months at a time.

因为每一次我们都会和10到12个人 一起工作上几个年头。 有时要在海上呆上个2-3个月。


And in that bond, you realize that the most important thing is the respect that you have for them and that they have for you, that you've done a task that you can't explain to someone else.

而在那种凝聚力下，你意识到 最重要的事情 就是你与他们 彼此之间的尊敬，你们共同完成了一个 无法向他人解释的任务。


When you come back to the shore and you say, "We had to do this, and the fiber optic, and the attentuation, and the this and the that, all the technology of it, and the difficulty, the human-performance aspects of working at sea," you can't explain it to people. It's that thing that maybe cops have, or people in combat that have gone through something together and they know they can never explain it.

当你回到海岸上，你会说： “我们需要做这个，这个光学纤维，这个电律衰减， 还有这个、那个。” 各项技术、其中的难度、 海上作业的工作效率── 这些都是你无法向他人解释的。这就好像那些 同甘共苦过的警察、战士一样，他们知道 他们是无法向其他人解释其中的经历的。


Creates a bond, creates a bond of respect.

创造一个凝聚力，创造一个充满尊重之情的凝聚力。


So, when I came back to make my next movie, which was "Avatar," I tried to apply that same principle of leadership, which is that you respect your team, and you earn their respect in return.

所以当我回来制作我的下一部电影 《阿凡达》的时候， 我试着应用同样的领导信条── 尊敬你的团队， 他们才会回过头来尊敬你。


而这一信条的确是改变了团队的活力。


So, here I was again with a small team, in uncharted territory, doing "Avatar," coming up with new technology that didn't exist before.

我再次和一个小团队走到了一起 共同前往未知的领域 制作《阿凡达》，创造不曾存在过的 新科技。


And we became a family, over a four-and-half year period.

在四年半的时间里，我们变成了一个大家庭。


And it completely changed how I do movies.

这个经历彻底改变了我制作电影的方式。


So, people have commented on how, "Well, you know, you brought back the ocean organisms and put them on the planet of Pandora."

人们评论说：你把海底生物 带回到人们视野中来 放到了潘朵拉这个星球上。


To me, it was more of a fundamental way of doing business, the process itself, that changed as a result of that.

对于我而言，更侧重于做事的基本法则 和这个过程本身，从而改变了事情的结果。


So, what can we synthesize out of all this?

所以我们从这一切中得到了什么呢？


我觉得第一点就是 好奇心。


这是你所拥有的最有力的东西。


Imagination is a force that can actually manifest a reality.

想象力是一种力量 一种可以反映现实的力量。


And the respect of your team is more important than all the laurels in the world.

而你团队对你的尊敬 要比这个世界上所有其他的桂冠 都要重要。


I have young filmmakers come up to me and say, "Give me some advice for doing this."

有时年轻电影导演 会问我：“给我一些电影方面的建议。”


And I say, "Don't put limitations on yourself.

我的回答是：“不要局限你自己。


Other people will do that for you -- don't do it to yourself, don't bet against yourself, and take risks."

别人会来局限你，会为你去划边界，但你不要自己局限自己。 不要赌自己会输。 要敢于冒险。”


NASA has this phrase that they like: "Failure is not an option."

美国航空局有一则他们很喜欢的名言： “失败不是一个选项。”


But failure has to be an option in art and in exploration, because it's a leap of faith.

但在艺术和探险中， 失败必定是个选项，因为这些都需要敢于挑战的信心。


And no important endeavor that required innovation was done without risk.

没有哪个需要创新的 重要奋斗 是在没有风险的条件下完成的。


You have to be willing to take those risks.

你必须愿意承担这些风险。


So, that's the thought I would leave you with, is that in whatever you're doing, failure is an option, but fear is not. Thank you.

而这就是我所想要留给你们的启迪： 无论你做什么， 失败都是其中一个选项， 但畏惧却不是。谢谢你们。


If I can leave you with one big idea today, it's that the whole of the data in which we consume is greater that the sum of the parts, and instead of thinking about information overload, what I'd like you to think about is how we can use information so that patterns pop and we can see trends that would otherwise be invisible.

如果今天我可以留给你们一个理念 那就是我们消费的所有的数据所富含的信息大于各部分相加的总和， 那就是我们消费的所有的数据所富含的信息大于各部分相加的总和， 那就是我们消费的所有的数据所富含的信息大于各部分相加的总和， 并且，与其思考信息爆炸 我希望你想一想怎样使用 这些信息，显示其中的规律 使得我们能看见本来不可见的趋势，


So what we're looking at right here is a typical mortality chart organized by age.

那么我们在这里看到的是一个典型的死亡率图表 按照年龄分组


This tool that I'm using here is a little experiment.

我在这里使用的工具是一个小实验


It's called Pivot, and with Pivot what I can do is I can choose to filter in one particular cause of deaths -- say, accidents.

它称为Pivot，我能用Pivot 选择过滤特殊死亡原因，譬如事故


And, right away, I see there's a different pattern that emerges.

立刻，我看到一个不同的模式展现出来


This is because, in the mid-area here, people are at their most active, and over here they're at their most frail.

这是因为，在中间这里 人们在他们最活跃的年龄 而在这里他们也是最体弱多病的时候


We can step back out again and then reorganize the data by cause of death, seeing that circulatory diseases and cancer are the usual suspects, but not for everyone.

我们可以退回来 根据死亡原因重组数据 我们看到循环系统疾病和癌症 是致死的主要病症，但这个规律并非适用于每个人


If we go ahead and we filter by age -- say 40 years or less -- we see that accidents are actually the greatest cause that people have to be worried about.

如果我们按照年龄过滤， 譬如40岁以下 我们可以看到 意外事故变成了人们需要格外小心的杀手


And if you drill into that, it's especially the case for men.

如果你进一步挖掘，会发现这一条尤其针对男性适用


So you get the idea that viewing information, viewing data in this way, is a lot like swimming in a living information info-graphic.

好了，你大概明白这个工具的作用了 通过这种方式查看信息，数据 很像在 鲜活的信息资料图片中遨游。


And if we can do this for raw data, why not do it for content as well?

如果我们能够对原始数据这样做 为什么不也在内容上做呢？


So what we have right here is the cover of every single Sports Illustrated It's all here; it's all on the web.

因此我们在这里展示 有史以来的 每一期体育画报的封面 全部在这里，全部在网络上。


You can go back to your rooms and try this after my talk.

你可以在我演讲结束后回到你的房间试试看。


With Pivot, you can drill into a decade.

使用Pivot，你能够以十年为单位查看。


你能够深入指定的某一年。


You can jump right into a specific issue.


So I'm looking at this; I see the athletes that have appeared in this issue, the sports.

比如我看到这个；我看见曾经出现在这期中的 运动员，体育。


I'm a Lance Armstrong fan, so I'll go ahead and I'll click on that, which reveals, for me, all the issues in which Lance Armstrong's been a part of.

我是兰斯·阿姆斯特朗的粉丝，所以我继续点击 它就给我展示了所有 这只是兰斯·阿姆斯特朗所有问题中的一部分


Now, if I want to just kind of take a peek at these, I might think, "Well, what about taking a look at all of cycling?"

（掌声欢呼） 现在，如果我仅仅是想取样这些数据的高峰 我会想， 好吧，看看所有自行车运动员如何？


因此，我可以退一步，并扩大这一点


我现在看见了格雷格·莱蒙德


And so you get the idea that when you navigate over information this way -- going narrower, broader, backing in, backing out -- you're not searching, you're not browsing.

因此你要明白 当你用这种方式浏览信息时 狭窄的，宽阔的， 后退，反向， 你不是在搜寻，不是在浏览。


You're doing something that's actually a little bit different.

你做的事实际上有点不同。


It's in between, and we think it changes the way information can be used.

介于两者之间，并且我们认为 这改变了信息的使用方式


So I want to extrapolate on this idea a bit with something that's a little bit crazy.

因此，我推断在这个想法上 有些东西是有点疯狂。


What we're done here is we've taken every single Wikipedia page and we reduced it down to a little summary.

我们在这儿做的是摘取每个维基百科的页面 然后压缩为一个小小的摘要


So the summary consists of just a little synopsis and an icon to indicate the topical area that it comes from.

摘要包含了简介 一个图标显示它来自专业领域。


I'm only showing the top 500 most popular Wikipedia pages right here.

我仅仅在这里展示前500个 最受欢迎的维基百科页面


But even in this limited view, we can do a lot of things.

但即使在这些有限的浏览中， 我们依然可以做很多事情。


Right away, we get a sense of what are the topical domains that are most popular on Wikipedia.

立刻，我们得知 维基百科上最流行的是什么。


I'm going to go ahead and select government.


Now, having selected government, I can now see that the Wikipedia categories that most frequently correspond to that are Time magazine People of the Year.

现在，通过选定后的政府， 我可以看到在维基百科类别中 最常对应的 是时代周刊年度风云人物


So this is really important because this is an insight that was not contained within any one Wikipedia page.

这是很重要的 因为这是一项 不属于任何一个维基网页所载述的内容。


It's only possible to see that insight when you step back and look at all of them.

只有你退后几步俯瞰全局 才有可能看的透彻


Looking at one of these particular summaries, I can then drill into the concept of Time magazine Person of the Year, bringing up all of them.

看看这些特殊摘要中的一种， 随后我能深入 时代杂志年度风云人物 深入他们。


So looking at these people, I can see that the majority come from government; some have come from natural sciences; some, fewer still, have come from business -- there's my boss -- and one has come from music.

所以，看看这些人 我可以看到大多数来自政府。 有一部分来自自然科学界。 更少的部分来自商界。 其中有我的老板。 一个来自音乐界。


And interestingly enough, Bono is also a TED Prize winner.

而有趣的是， 波诺也是TED大奖得主。


So we can go, jump, and take a look at all the TED Prize winners.

因此我们能够继续，跳转，看看所有的TED大奖得主。


So you see, we're navigating the web for the first time as if it's actually a web, not from page-to-page, but at a higher level of abstraction.

所以你看，这是我们第一次在网络上遨游 仿佛的确是一张网，不仅一页一页的。 而且是在更高的抽象层次上的网。


And so I want to show you one other thing that may catch you a little bit by surprise.

所以我想告诉你另一件事 可能会让你吃惊。


I'm just showing the New York Times website here.

我只是在这展示纽约时报网站。


So Pivot, this application -- I don't want to call it a browser; it's really not a browser, but you can view web pages with it -- and we bring that zoomable technology to every single web page like this.

Pivot，这个应用程序—— 我不想称之为浏览器，它确实不仅是一个浏览器， 你能用它浏览网页—— 并且我们给每个像这样的网页引入了可缩放技术。 并且我们给每个像这样的网页引入了可缩放技术。


So I can step back, pop right back into a specific section.

因此我可以退后， 退后到特定的地方


Now the reason why this is important is because, by virtue of just viewing web pages in this way, I can look at my entire browsing history in the exact same way.

为什么这个是重要的是因为， 由于通过这种方式浏览网页的好处， 我能用完全相同的方式 看到我的全部浏览历史。


So I can drill into what I've done over specific time frames.

因此我能深入 具体时间段的具体事件。


Here, in fact, is the state of all the demo that I just gave.

这里，事实上， 是我刚才所有演示的情况。


And I can sort of replay some stuff that I was looking at earlier today.

我可以在某种程度上重放我今天早些时候看到的东西。


And, if I want to step back and look at everything, I can slice and dice my history, perhaps by my search history -- here, I was doing some nepotistic searching, looking for Bing, over here for Live Labs Pivot.

如果我想退后一步看所一切东西， 我可以切割我的历史 也许是我的搜索历史。 这里，我做了一些相关搜索， 搜寻Bing，在这里有关微软Live Labs的Pivot。


And from these, I can drill into the web page and just launch them again.

从这些，我可以深入网页 仅仅重启他们。


It's one metaphor repurposed multiple times, and in each case it makes the whole greater than the sum of the parts with the data.

这是同样的信息，因不同目的被多次组合使用， 每次重新组合，使得它比组合起来的整体所含信息更多。 每次重新组合，使得它比组合起来的整体所含信息更多。


So right now, in this world, we think about data as being this curse.

现在，在这个世界上， 我们谈到数据常常提到这个诅咒。


We talk about the curse of information overload.


我们谈论淹没在信息海洋中。


What if we can actually turn that upside down and turn the web upside down, so that instead of navigating from one thing to the next, we get used to the habit of being able to go from many things to many things, and then being able to see the patterns that were otherwise hidden?

假设我们能把这种观念颠覆 把网络上下颠覆， 相对于单线信息相互链接的情况， 让我们开始习惯多样信息链接多样信息， 然后看到除此方式外无法看到的，隐藏规律？ 然后看到除此方式外无法看到的，隐藏规律？


If we can do that, then instead of being trapped in data, we might actually extract information.

如果我们能做到这一点，而不是被困在数据中， 我们才能真正的获取信息。


And, instead of dealing just with information, we can tease out knowledge.

并且，不仅仅是处理信息， 我们还可以梳理知识。


And if we get the knowledge, then maybe even there's wisdom to be found.

如果我们获得知识，之后甚至可以发现智慧。


Everybody talks about happiness these days.

最近大家都在谈论着快乐。


I had somebody count the number of books with "happiness" in the title published in the last five years and they gave up after about 40, and there were many more.

在过去的五年里，我请人数了近年来有多本书的 书名中提到“快乐”， 他们数到大约有40本，而且还有更多没数到的。


There is a huge wave of interest in happiness, among researchers.

现今越来越多研究者都开始对快乐 这个议题产生兴趣。


而且还有很多的“快乐教练”授课。


Everybody would like to make people happier.

让其他人更快乐是他们的宗旨。


But in spite of all this flood of work, there are several cognitive traps that sort of make it almost impossible to think straight about happiness.

虽然此类工作多如牛毛， 但现仍存在几个认知上的陷阱， 这些陷阱将会增加使人领悟 快乐本质的难度。


And my talk today will be mostly about these cognitive traps.

我今天将主要谈论这些认知陷阱。


This applies to laypeople thinking about their own happiness, and it applies to scholars thinking about happiness, because it turns out we're just as messed up as anybody else is.

这些陷阱既会影响到一般人对自身快乐的观感， 而且也会影响到学者对快乐的判断， 因为人无完人，我们皆会出错。


The first of these traps is a reluctance to admit complexity.

第一个陷阱是 不愿意去承认快乐的复杂性。


It turns out that the word "happiness" is just not a useful word anymore, because we apply it to too many different things.

事实证明快乐这个词 已不再是常用词汇了， 因为我们已用其来诠释太多的事物了。


I think there is one particular meaning to which we might restrict it, but by and large, this is something that we'll have to give up and we'll have to adopt the more complicated view of what well-being is.

我想我们应该限定它的意思， 不过，一般而言， 我们得放弃这个想法 并用更复杂的观点来看 何谓快乐生活。


The second trap is a confusion between experience and memory; basically, it's between being happy in your life, and being happy about your life or happy with your life.

第二个陷阱是经验和记忆间的混淆： 基本上这是在生活中体会快乐 和觉得生活很快乐 以及对于你的生活满意之间的差别。


And those are two very different concepts, and they're both lumped in the notion of happiness.

这两者的意义相距甚远， 且在论及快乐时会混为一谈。


And the third is the focusing illusion, and it's the unfortunate fact that we can't think about any circumstance that affects well-being without distorting its importance.

第三个陷阱则是聚焦错觉， 令人遗憾的是，任何情况下，当我们想到一些 关于快乐生活的情景时， 我们势必会觉得它特别重要。


我的意思是，这是一个真正的认知陷阱。


There's just no way of getting it right.


Now, I'd like to start with an example of somebody who had a question-and-answer session after one of my lectures reported a story, and that was a story -- He said he'd been listening to a symphony, and it was absolutely glorious music and at the very end of the recording, there was a dreadful screeching sound.

现在，我想以一个例子来开头， 有个人上过我的课后 于答问之时向我讲述了一则故事。 [不清...] 他说他有次在听交响乐时 觉得音乐真是动听极了， 但在演奏快结束之时， 却冒出了尖锐刺耳的声音。


And then he added, really quite emotionally, it ruined the whole experience.

接着他激动地表示 这就是一只老鼠坏了一锅粥。


What it had ruined were the memories of the experience.

所发生的糟糕印象仅仅是对这段经验的记忆。


He had had 20 minutes of glorious music.

他也经历了20分钟的听觉盛会。


They counted for nothing because he was left with a memory; the memory was ruined, and the memory was all that he had gotten to keep.

但现在都已无足轻重了， 因为他仅留下一段记忆； 就是那段糟糕的记忆， 而其它20分钟的盛会则被完全遗忘了。


What this is telling us, really, is that we might be thinking of ourselves and of other people in terms of two selves.

这告诉我们， 我们在思考自己和别人时， 用了两种自我。


There is an experiencing self, who lives in the present and knows the present, is capable of re-living the past, but basically it has only the present.

第一种则为经验自我， 这种自我活在当下， 洞察当下， 同时也能回味过往， 但基本上他只属于当下。


It's the experiencing self that the doctor approaches -- you know, when the doctor asks, "Does it hurt now when I touch you here?"

一般医生接触的皆是经验自我-- 正如，当医生问你， “我碰你这里时会疼么？”


And then there is a remembering self, and the remembering self is the one that keeps score, and maintains the story of our life, and it's the one that the doctor approaches in asking the question, "How have you been feeling lately?"

另一个自我则是记忆自我， 他负责记录生活， 抒写生活故事， 医生要找他时 会这么问， “最近感觉如何？”


or "How was your trip to Albania?" or something like that.

或“去阿尔巴尼亚好玩么？”等类似的问题。


Those are two very different entities, the experiencing self and the remembering self, and getting confused between them is part of the mess about the notion of happiness.

经验自我和记忆自我 是截然不同的， 两者的混淆是导致我们不懂快乐的 部分原因。


Now, the remembering self is a storyteller.

记忆自我 负责讲述故事。


And that really starts with a basic response of our memories -- it starts immediately.

故事从记忆中直接撷取-- 即时上传。


We don't only tell stories when we set out to tell stories.

并不是我们在讲我们要讲的故事。


Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.

是我们的记忆在讲故事， 它是我们从经验中储存下来的 故事。


Those are actual patients undergoing a painful procedure.

一些真正的病人将会接受一种痛苦的治疗方法。


I won't go into detail. It's no longer painful these days, but it was painful when this study was run in the 1990s.

细节不再详述。现今的疗法已不再如此难受， 但在研究进行的九十年代时，这种方法令人痛不欲生。


They were asked to report on their pain every 60 seconds.

病人每隔六十秒则必须报告他们的痛苦指数。


Here are two patients, those are their recordings.

这边有两位病患。 这是他们的记录。


And you are asked, "Who of them suffered more?"

我问你：“在他们之中谁最痛苦？”


Clearly, Patient B suffered more -- his colonoscopy was longer, and every minute of pain that Patient A had, Patient B had, and more.

显然，是病人B。 他的结肠镜检查时间较长， 病人A每分钟感觉的痛疼 病人B也感觉到了，而且持续更久。


But now there is another question: "How much did these patients think they suffered?"

但现在还有另一个问题： 这些患者认为他们受罪了吗？


The surprise is that Patient A had a much worse memory of the colonoscopy than Patient B.

令人惊讶的是病人A 对结肠镜检查的记忆比病人B 还糟糕。


The stories of the colonoscopies were different, and because a very critical part of the story is how it ends.

两段结肠镜检查的故事不同， 这关键在于故事的结尾--


And neither of these stories is very inspiring or great -- but one of them is this distinct ... but one of them is distinctly worse than the other.

两个故事都不怎么启迪智慧-- 但两者显然是不同的... 显然其中之一的感受比另一个还差。


And the one that is worse is the one where pain was at its peak at the very end; it's a bad story.

感觉较糟的这一个 是在最后的时期里知晓什么是痛绝人寰。 这不是个好故事。


Because we asked these people after their colonoscopy, and much later, too, "How bad was the whole thing, in total?"

因为我们在检查结束后问他们， 以及在很久之后再问一次他们， “你们对结肠镜检查的整体印象如何？”


And it was much worse for A than for B, in memory.

结果是A的记忆感觉明显要比B更糟糕。


Now this is a direct conflict between the experiencing self and the remembering self.

现在这是经验自我和记忆自我


From the point of view of the experiencing self, clearly, B had a worse time.

之间的直接冲突。 从经验自我的角度来看， 病人B显然是比较难受的。


Now, what you could do with Patient A, and we actually ran clinical experiments, and it has been done, and it does work -- you could actually extend the colonoscopy of Patient A by just keeping the tube in without jiggling it too much.

那么病人A的情况该如何解释， 我们实际做了一个临床试验， 当实验完成时，我们也得到了预期的结果， 事实上我们可以延长病人A的检查时间 从而减缓导管的震动程度。


That will cause the patient to suffer, but just a little and much less than before.

虽然病人还是会疼， 但已减轻 许多了。


And if you do that for a couple of minutes, you have made the experiencing self of Patient A worse off, and you have the remembering self of Patient A a lot better off, because now you have endowed Patient A with a better story about his experience.

假如继续这样下去， 你将会使病人A的经验自我的 感觉更糟， 但病人A的记忆自我 则会感觉好多了， 因为你给了病人A 一个好一点的故事， 一个好一点记忆他病痛经历的故事。


And that is true of the stories that memory delivers for us, and it's also true of the stories that we make up.

并且记忆告诉我们的故事 是真实的， 我们讲述的故事也是真的。


What defines a story are changes, significant moments and endings.

故事的好坏取决于高潮时分 及结尾时刻。


Endings are very, very important and, in this case, the ending dominated.

结尾是非常重要的， 上面的这个故事就是由结尾所主导的。


Now, the experiencing self lives its life continuously.

现在，经验自我 延续这个生活经验。


It has moments of experience, one after the other.

他也拥有片刻的经验，一个接一个。


And you can ask: What happens to these moments?

你会问：“这些片刻怎么了？”


And the answer is really straightforward: They are lost forever.

答案很简单。 他们永远消失了。


I mean, most of the moments of our life -- and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long; that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them; in a month, there are about 600,000 -- most of them don't leave a trace.

我们生活中的大多片刻-- 我算了算--从心理学角度来说 仅仅只是三秒长。 这意味着 人一生中大约有六亿个片刻。 一个月里则大约有六十万个片刻。 它们大多不留痕迹。


Most of them are completely ignored by the remembering self.

大多数皆被记忆自我 全然忽视了。


And yet, somehow you get the sense that they should count, that what happens during these moments of experience is our life.

然而，你现在亦应发现 一些感觉被储存， 因为我们经验中的每分每秒合在一起 就构成了我们的人生。


It's the finite resource that we're spending And how to spend it would seem to be relevant, but that is not the story that the remembering self keeps for us.

只要我们活着， 我们就会消耗这些有限的资源。 该如何使用它们， 似乎是很重要的， 但这不是记忆自我 所留给我们的故事。


So we have the remembering self and the experiencing self, and they're really quite distinct.

因此记忆自我 和经验自我 是很好区别的。


The biggest difference between them is in the handling of time.

他们之间的最大不同 是在于处理时间的方式。


From the point of view of the experiencing self, if you have a vacation, and the second week is just as good as the first, then the two-week vacation is twice as good as the one-week vacation.

就经验自我而言， 如果你有一个假期， 第二周和第一周同等快乐， 那么两周下来 快乐的分量是一周假期的两倍多。


That's not the way it works at all for the remembering self.

然而记忆自我则不是这样算的。


For the remembering self, a two-week vacation is barely better than the one-week vacation because there are no new memories added.

对记忆自我来说，两周假期 并不比一周假期多多少， 因为期间没有任何新记忆的加入。


And in this way, time is actually the critical variable that distinguishes a remembering self from an experiencing self; time has very little impact on the story.

因此 时间是区分 记忆自我和经验自我的 关键因素。 时间对这个故事的影响不大。


Now, the remembering self does more than remember and tell stories.

记忆自我所做的 不仅是记忆和讲述故事。


It is actually the one that makes decisions because, if you have a patient who has had, say, two colonoscopies with two different surgeons and is deciding which of them to choose, then the one that chooses is the one that has the memory that is less bad, and that's the surgeon that will be chosen.

它也是真正做决定的因素， 因为，假若你的病人已经历 过两位不同的外科医生来做胃肠镜检查， 而现在决定从他们中选一位来再做检查时， 病人选的将会是 记忆中感觉比较好的那位， 这就是如何选定医生的。


The experiencing self has no voice in this choice.

经验自我 在做选择是则无从置喙。


We actually don't choose between experiences, we choose between memories of experiences.

事实上，我们不会在两段经验中做选择。 我们是在两种不同经验的记忆中做出选择。


And even when we think about the future, we don't think of our future normally as experiences.

而且当我们设想未来时， 一般我们不会以经验的形式去思考。


We think of our future as anticipated memories.

我们把未来 以预想的记忆形式呈现。


And basically you can look at this, you know, as a tyranny of the remembering self, and you can think of the remembering self sort of dragging the experiencing self through experiences that the experiencing self doesn't need.

大体上你可以看到， 记忆自我是专制的， 你可以想象记忆自我 在拽着经验自我， 他是通过经验自我不要的经验 来拽着经验自我的。


I have that sense that when we go on vacations this is very frequently the case; that is, we go on vacations, to a very large extent, in the service of our remembering self.

我有个想法， 当我们放假时 往往 之所以放假， 有很大一部分 是为了记忆自我。


And this is a bit hard to justify I think.


I mean, how much do we consume our memories?


That is one of the explanations that is given for the dominance of the remembering self.

这可以解释 记忆自我 为何能成为主导的自我。


And when I think about that, I think about a vacation we had in Antarctica a few years ago, which was clearly the best vacation I've ever had, and I think of it relatively often, relative to how much I think of other vacations.

这让我想起一次假期， 几年前在南极度过的假期， 这可以说是我最棒的一个假期， 与其它假期相比， 我常常会想起这个假期。


And I probably have consumed my memories of that three-week trip, I would say, for about 25 minutes in the last four years.

这趟旅程大概让我用掉了 三周的记忆量， 大概仅在过去四年中占了约25分钟。


Now, if I had ever opened the folder with the 600 pictures in it, I would have spent another hour.

现在，如我打开资料夹 里面大概有600张相片， 我可能要花一个小时来回忆。


Now, that is three weeks, and that is at most an hour and a half.

三周的旅程 最多只用一个半小时来回忆。


Now, I may be a bit extreme, you know, in how little appetite I have for consuming memories, but even if you do more of this, there is a genuine question: Why do we put so much weight on memory relative to the weight that we put on experiences?

这让我有点不满， 因为我记得真是太少了， 不过就算你记得再多 这里也会有个实际的问题。 为什么我们用来记忆 比依赖经验还多？


So I want you to think about a thought experiment.

所以我希望你能思考 一个有关思考的实验。


Imagine that for your next vacation, you know that at the end of the vacation all your pictures will be destroyed, and you'll get an amnesic drug so that you won't remember anything.

假使你的下一个假期， 当你知道假期结束后 假期中所有的相片将被销毁时， 而你也会吞下一颗遗忘药 以使你遗忘一切。


Now, would you choose the same vacation? And if you would choose a different vacation, there is a conflict between your two selves, and you need to think about how to adjudicate that conflict, and it's actually not at all obvious, because if you think in terms of time, then you get one answer, and if you think in terms of memories, you might get another answer.

这样，你还会想过同样的假期么？ 如果你选了个不同的假期， 你的两个自我之间将会产生冲突， 你得想法来裁决这场冲突， 这并不怎么容易， 因为假若你仅考虑时间 你会得到一个答案。 但若仅考虑记忆 你会得到另外一个答案。


Why do we pick the vacations we do is a problem that confronts us with a choice between the two selves.

我们为什么要选此而非彼， 这个困扰我们的问题 是需要在两个自我之间作出选择。


Now, the two selves bring up two notions of happiness.

现在，两个自我 带来对快乐的两种不同见解。


There are really two concepts of happiness that we can apply, one per self.

这两种对快乐的见解 分别对应了两个自我。


So you can ask: How happy is the experiencing self?

因此你会问：“经验自我是有多快乐？”


And then you would ask: How happy are the moments in the experiencing self's life?

接着你会问：“经验自我的每一刻 有多快乐？”


And they're all -- happiness for moments is a fairly complicated process.

这些快乐时刻的组成过程 是异常复杂的。


What are the emotions that can be measured?


And, by the way, now we are capable of the happiness of the experiencing self over time.

顺带一提，我们现在 对于经验自我会随着时间而感受快乐 已经有了一个粗浅的概念了。


If you ask for the happiness of the remembering self, it's a completely different thing.

而记忆自我所指的快乐 则是完全两码事。


This is not about how happily a person lives.

这并不是一个人生活多快乐的问题。


It is about how satisfied or pleased the person is when that person thinks about her life.

而是它对自己的人生 有多满意和多喜欢的问题。


Anyone who doesn't distinguish those notions is going to mess up the study of happiness, and I belong to a crowd of students of well-being, who've been messing up the study of happiness for a long time in precisely this way.

若不能分辨这两种见解 就无法参透快乐这门学问， 我和其他活得好的学生一样， 一直以来都研究不透快乐， 就是因为这个原因。


The distinction between the happiness of the experiencing self and the satisfaction of the remembering self has been recognized in recent years, and there are now efforts to measure the two separately.

近年来， 经验自我的快乐 和记忆自我的满足的 差异性已能分清， 目前正努力来分别测度两者，


The Gallup Organization has a world poll where more than half a million people have been asked questions about what they think of their life and about their experiences, and there have been other efforts along those lines.

盖洛普公司最近在全世界举行了一场民意调查， 其中逾五十万人 都被问及一个类似的问题， 那就是他们如何看待他们的生活 和如何看待他们的经验。 除了这个问题，这个公司还做了其它的调查。


So in recent years, we have begun to learn about the happiness of the two selves.

近年来，我们逐渐得知 关于两种快乐见解的信息。


And the main lesson I think that we have learned is they are really different.

我认为我们主要学到的便是 两者是天壤之别的。


You can know how satisfied somebody is with their life, and that really doesn't teach you much about how happily they're living their life, and vice versa.

虽然你可以得知一个人对生活是否满意， 但却无法告诉你 他们平常活的有多快乐， 而反之亦然。


Just to give you a sense of the correlation, the correlation is about .5.

只是为了让你对其中的关联性有个基本概念， 它们之间大概只有50%关联。


What that means is if you met somebody, and you were told, "Oh his father is six feet tall," how much would you know about his height?

意思是当你见到某个人时， 你被告知他的爸爸有六尺高， 你能知道这个人有多高么？


Well, you would know something about his height, but there's a lot of uncertainty.

好吧，你可能有个基本概念， 但非常不确定。


If I tell you that somebody ranked their life eight on a scale of ten, you have a lot of uncertainty about how happy they are with their experiencing self.

若我说有人给自己的生活质量打分，他打8/10分， 你也不能把握 他们的经验自我 有多么快乐。


We know something about what controls satisfaction of the happiness self.

我们知道什么能够 让人的快乐得到满足。


We know that money is very important, goals are very important.

我们知道钱是很重要的， 目标也非常重要。


We know that happiness is mainly being satisfied with people that we like, spending time with people that we like.

我们知道要快乐是需要通过 我们所喜爱的人来满足， 是需要花时间和他们待在一起来满足。


There are other pleasures, but this is dominant.

虽然还有其它因素，但这是主要因素。


So if you want to maximize the happiness of the two selves, you are going to end up doing very different things.

所以假若你想让两个自我都快乐， 你必须抛弃旧习 且要做些与众不同的事。


The bottom line of what I've said here is that we really should not think of happiness as a substitute for well-being.

我说的是，我们至少 不应把快乐当成活得好的 代名词。


Now, very quickly, another reason we cannot think straight about happiness is that we do not attend to the same things when we think about life, and we actually live.

现在，很快地讨论下 另一个我们不能理解快乐本质的原因， 那就是我们怎么看生活 和我们怎么过生活是不一样的。


So, if you ask the simple question of how happy people are in California, you are not going to get to the correct answer.

所以，当你问加州的人有多快乐时， 你将无法得到正确答案。


When you ask that question, you think people must be happier in California if, say, you live in Ohio.

因为当你这样问时， 你认为加州人一定过得比较快乐， 而你则住在俄亥俄州。


And what happens is when you think about living in California, you are thinking of the contrast between California and other places, and that contrast, say, is in climate.

当你在想 住在加州有多快乐时， 你会想到加州和其他州域 之间的差异性， 譬如，气候。


Well, it turns out that climate is not very important to the experiencing self and it's not even very important to the reflective self that decides how happy people are.

事实证明气候条件 对于经验自我并非很重要 而且对于思考自我 衡量自己有多快乐也不太重要。


But now, because the reflective self is in charge, you may end up -- some people may end up moving to California.

不过，既然现实由思考自我主导， 一些人可能会得到这样一种结论， 那就是搬到加州。


And it's sort of interesting to trace what is going to happen to people who move to California in the hope of getting happier.

他们搬去加州是为了过上更快乐的生活， 是而追踪观看他们的后续发展，将会是一件相当有趣的事。


Well, their experiencing self is not going to get happier.

他们的经验自我 是不会变得更快乐。


But one thing will happen: They will think they are happier, because, when they think about it, they'll be reminded of how horrible the weather was in Ohio, and they will feel they made the right decision.

不过当一件事发生后，他们会觉得自己快乐多了。 因为在他们思考时， 他们会回想起俄亥俄州的坏天气。 他们也因此觉得他们做出了正确的决定。


to think straight about well-being, and I hope I have given you a sense of how difficult it is.

要理解快乐生活 实在很难， 我希望我已经让你们对此有个基本概念， 并且明白这个过程到底有多难。


Chris Anderson: Thank you. I've got a question for you.

克里斯·安德森：谢谢您的演讲。我有个问题想请教您。


Now, when we were on the phone a few weeks ago, you mentioned to me that there was quite an interesting result came out of that Gallup survey.

几星期前，我们有过一次电话通讯， 当时您提到您从盖洛普的调查中 发现了一个有趣的现象。


Is that something you can share since you do have a few moments left now?

请问您可以跟我们分享一下吗？ 我们还有几分钟的时间。


丹尼尔·卡纳曼：没问题。


I think the most interesting result that we found in the Gallup survey is a number, which we absolutely did not expect to find.

我从盖洛普调查中发现了一个极有趣的数字， 能发现它实属意外。


We found that with respect to the happiness of the experiencing self.

我们发现一个关于 经验自我的快乐的现象。


When we looked at how feelings, vary with income.

那就是人的感觉 会随收入的多少而变化。


And it turns out that, below an income of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans -- and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000, so it's a large representative sample -- below an income of 600,000 dollars a year...

结果表明，对于年收入低于六万美元的 美国人而言， 这占了样本中的很大一部分， 将近有六十万人，这些人是相当具有指标性的， 这些年收入低于六十万美元......


60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy, and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get.

年收入六万美元的人是不快乐的， 而且收入越低，他们则逾不快乐。


Above that, we get an absolutely flat line.

而当收入逾六万时，我们则得到一条标准水平线。


Clearly, what is happening is money does not buy you experiential happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery, and we can measure that misery very, very clearly.

显然 金钱是无法买到经验自我的快乐， 但没钱却的确能给你带来悲郁的境况， 而且我们清楚地测到痛苦的程度， 非常清楚。


In terms of the other self, the remembering self, you get a different story.

对于另一个自我，记忆自我而言。 你则有了一个大相迳庭的故事。


The more money you earn, the more satisfied you are.

你赚的越多，你就越满意。


CA: But Danny, the whole American endeavor is about life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness.

安德森：可是丹尼，生命、自由和追求快乐 是所有美国人奋斗的目标。


If people took seriously that finding, I mean, it seems to turn upside down everything we believe about, like for example, taxation policy and so forth.

假若大家都认真对待这一发现， 那么，这将颠覆我们 固有的观念，例如， 课税政策等。


Is there any chance that politicians, that the country generally, would take a finding like that seriously and run public policy based on it?

这个国家的政治人物有没有可能 会正视这样的发现 并且依次施政？


DK: You know I think that there is recognition of the role of happiness research in public policy.

卡纳曼：我认为已有人认知到研究快乐 于谋划政策中的地位。


The recognition is going to be slow in the United States, no question about that, but in the U.K., it is happening, and in other countries it is happening.

但这项认知于美国的传播速度颇慢， 这是毋庸置疑的， 但在英国，它正持续发酵， 其他国家亦然。


People are recognizing that they ought to be thinking of happiness when they think of public policy.

一般人也开始认知到 在谋划政策时 亦应将快乐纳入考量指标。


It's going to take a while, and people are going to debate whether they want to study experience happiness, or whether they want to study life evaluation, so we need to have that debate fairly soon.

虽然这将花些时间， 但人们也将开始思考。 他们要的是经验的快乐 抑或是为生活打分， 因此很快，我们将要理解这个问题。


How to enhance happiness goes very different ways depending on how you think, and whether you think of the remembering self or you think of the experiencing self.

如何增进快乐， 有好几种方式，但事关你是怎么想的， 你想的是记忆自我 还是在想经验自我。


This is going to influence policy, I think, in years to come.

我想于几年之内，这将影响政策的实施。


In the United States, efforts are being made to measure the experience happiness of the population.

美国已经付出巨大的努力来衡量 大众的经验的快乐。


This is going to be, I think, within the next decade or two, part of national statistics.

我想在十年或二十年内， 这将会成为国家统计数据的一部分。


CA: Well, it seems to me that this issue will -- or at least should be -- the most interesting policy discussion to track over the next few years.

安德森：这个议题对于我来说 将会是未来几年里 最有的一个政策讨论议题。


Thank you so much for inventing behavioral economics.

非常感谢您所创造的行为经济学。


非常感谢丹尼尔·卡纳曼。


I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.

我今天要谈的是能源与气候，这可能有点出人意料


And that might seem a bit surprising because my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds, about the things that we need to invent and deliver to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

我今天要谈的是能源与气候，这可能有点出人意料 毕竟我在基金会的全职工作主要是关于疾病疫苗和农业种苗的 那些的确是需要我们发明传播，以改善世上最贫穷的二十亿人的生活的东西 那些的确是需要我们发明传播，以改善世上最贫穷的二十亿人的生活的东西


But energy and climate are extremely important to these people -- in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

但事实上，能源和气候对这些人极为重要，事实上，比对地球上其他人更加重要 但事实上，能源和气候对这些人极为重要，事实上，比对地球上其他人更加重要


The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow: There will be too much rain, not enough rain, things will change in ways that their fragile environment simply can't support.

气候的持续恶化意味着他们的庄稼将多年无法生长，意味着洪涝或干旱 气候的持续恶化意味着他们的庄稼将多年无法生长，意味着洪涝或干旱 这些变化将令他们脆弱的环境无法承受 这些变化将令他们脆弱的环境无法承受


And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

这将导致饥荒，导致动荡，导致社会骚乱


So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

所以，气候变化将给他们带来严重后果，同时，能源价格也对他们至关重要


Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

所以，气候变化将给他们带来严重后果，同时，能源价格也对他们至关重要


In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of, to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.

事实上，如果只能降低一样东西的价格以减少贫困，你一定会首选能源价格 事实上，如果只能降低一样东西的价格以减少贫困，你一定会首选能源价格


Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

能源价格随着人类历史进程逐渐下降，先进文明是建立在先进能源的基础上的


Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

能源价格随着人类历史进程逐渐下降，先进文明是建立在先进能源的基础上的


The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution, and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity, and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning, we can make modern materials and do so many things.

当年的煤炭革命推进了工业革命 早在二十世纪初,我们就迎来了电价的快速下跌,这就是我们能够享受冰箱空调的原因 早在二十世纪初,我们就迎来了电价的快速下跌,这就是我们能够享受冰箱空调的原因 我们由此可以拥有各种现代化的事物，能够做各种事情


And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

得益于电力，我们能在一个富裕的世界里过着美妙的生活


But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap -- we need to meet a new constraint, and that constraint has to do with CO2.

但是，当我们进一步降低电价的时候，比如再使其便宜两倍 我们就有了一个新的限制，这个限制与二氧化碳有关 我们就有了一个新的限制，这个限制与二氧化碳有关


CO2 is warming the planet, and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

二氧化碳正在使全球变暖，而计算二氧化碳排放的公式其实非常简单明了 二氧化碳正在使全球变暖，而计算二氧化碳排放的公式其实非常简单明了


If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted, that leads to a temperature increase, and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects: the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects, in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes, and so you get ecosystem collapses.

当前二氧化碳巨大的排放量将导致温度上升 当前二氧化碳巨大的排放量将导致温度上升 温度的升高将引起一系列非常严重的后果 比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃 比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃 比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃


Now, the exact amount of how you map from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be and where the positive feedbacks are, there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？ 二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？ 二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？ 这中间有一些不确定因素，但不多


And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be, but they will be extremely bad.

至于全球变暖的具体负面影响有多严重，这无法完全确定，但肯定极其严重 至于全球变暖的具体负面影响有多严重，这无法完全确定，但肯定极其严重


I asked the top scientists on this several times: Do we really have to get down to near zero?

我为此多次请教过顶尖的科学家们：我们真的一定要将二氧化碳排放降到零吗？ 我为此多次请教过顶尖的科学家们：我们真的一定要将二氧化碳排放降到零吗？


Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

减少到一半或四分之一不行吗？


And the answer is that until we get near to zero, the temperature will continue to rise.

他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战 他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战


他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战


It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge, and we can just sort of squeeze under."

这不同于让一辆12英尺高的卡车通过限高10英尺的桥，只要想办法挤过去即可 这不同于让一辆12英尺高的卡车通过限高10英尺的桥，只要想办法挤过去即可


This is something that has to get to zero.

二氧化碳的排放是要彻底降到零为止


Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year, over 26 billion tons.

当前我们每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，总量超过260亿吨 当前我们每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，总量超过260亿吨


For each American, it's about 20 tons; for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨 美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨


It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨


And, somehow, we have to make changes that will bring that down to zero.

无论如何，我们都要做出改变，直至把这个数字降到零 无论如何，我们都要做出改变，直至把这个数字降到零


这个数字现在还在继续上升中，只有经济波动才稍稍抑制其上升的势头


It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all, so we have to go from rapidly rising to falling, and falling all the way to zero.

这个数字现在还在继续上升中，只有经济波动才稍稍抑制其上升的势头 我们不但要扭转其迅速上升的势头，还要让它下降，并且一路降到零 我们不但要扭转其迅速上升的势头，还要让它下降，并且一路降到零


This equation has four factors, a little bit of multiplication: So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero, and that's going to be based on the number of people, the services each person's using on average, the energy on average for each service, and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

这个二氧化碳的公式有四个因素，四者相乘 这个二氧化碳的公式有四个因素，四者相乘 等式左面是二氧化碳排放量，我们的目标是让它降到零 二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放 二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放 二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放 二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放


So, let's look at each one of these and see how we can get this down to zero.

下面让我们逐个来看各个因子，看看怎样才能将等式最终降为零 下面让我们逐个来看各个因子，看看怎样才能将等式最终降为零


Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

显然，我们需要至少一个因子非常接近于零，这是简单的高中代数


Now that's back from high school algebra, but let's take a look.

显然，我们需要至少一个因子非常接近于零，这是简单的高中代数 ♫ 我们来看一下，首先是人口


我们来看一下，首先是人口


目前世界上有68亿人，这将继续增长到约90亿人


Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent, but there we see an increase of about 1.3.

如果我们在新疫苗开发、医疗服务、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的话 如果我们在新疫苗开发、医疗服务、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的话 这个数字可能可以减少10％到15％，这样的话综合增长率约为1.3 这个数字可能可以减少10％到15％，这样的话综合增长率约为1.3


The second factor is the services we use.

第二个因子是我们使用的服务


This encompasses everything: the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物 这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物


These are very good things: getting rid of poverty means providing these services to almost everyone on the planet.

这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物 摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事 摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事


And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事


In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion, we probably could cut back and use less, but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up, and so, over all, that will more than double the services delivered per person.

在发达国家里，最富裕的十亿人，或许可以控制消费，减少一些服务享受 在发达国家里，最富裕的十亿人，或许可以控制消费，减少一些服务享受 但总体而言，这个数字将会逐年上升，最终人均享受的服务，将翻一番还不止 但总体而言，这个数字将会逐年上升，最终人均享受的服务，将翻一番还不止 但总体而言，这个数字将会逐年上升，最终人均享受的服务，将翻一番还不止


Here we have a very basic service: Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?

在这一地区，我们享有的服务非常基础：你家里有没有写作业的照明灯光？ 在这一地区，我们享有的服务非常基础：你家里有没有写作业的照明灯光？


And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out and reading their school work under the street lamps.

这些孩子就没有，所以他们要到外面去，坐在路灯下面写作业 这些孩子就没有，所以他们要到外面去，坐在路灯下面写作业


Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service, here finally we have some good news.

下面一个因素是效率，也就是每项服务所消耗的能源 在这一项上我们总算有了些好消息：这一因子不会持续上升


在这一项上我们总算有了些好消息：这一因子不会持续上升


Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting, through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings -- there are a lot of services where you can bring the energy for that service down quite substantially.

通过各种发明和新的照明方法，通过新技术的汽车，新的建筑方式 通过各种发明和新的照明方法，通过新技术的汽车，新的建筑方式 我们可以将很多服务所消耗的能源大大降低，个别服务，甚至可以降低百分之九十 我们可以将很多服务所消耗的能源大大降低，个别服务，甚至可以降低百分之九十


Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.

我们可以将很多服务所消耗的能源大大降低，个别服务，甚至可以降低百分之九十


There are other services like how we make fertilizer, or how we do air transport, where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

但另外一些服务，比如化肥生产，航空运输等，可以提升的空间较为有限 但另外一些服务，比如化肥生产，航空运输等，可以提升的空间较为有限 但另外一些服务，比如化肥生产，航空运输等，可以提升的空间较为有限


And so, overall here, if we're optimistic, we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

所以，综合来看，对这一项的乐观估计为：我们可能能实现三到六倍的下降 所以，综合来看，对这一项的乐观估计为：我们可能能实现三到六倍的下降


But for these first three factors now, we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons, and that just won't cut it.

就已讨论三个因素来说，我们最多将排放量从260吨降到130亿吨，这还远远不够 就已讨论三个因素来说，我们最多将排放量从260吨降到130亿吨，这还远远不够 就已讨论三个因素来说，我们最多将排放量从260吨降到130亿吨，这还远远不够


So let's look at this fourth factor -- this is going to be a key one -- and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

最后，我们来看第四个因素，也是最关键的一个 最后，我们来看第四个因素，也是最关键的一个 也就是每单位能源所排放的二氧化碳


And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?

我们的问题是，这一因素真的能降到零吗？


烧煤肯定不行，烧气也不行


Almost every way we make electricity today, except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

我们现有的所有发电方式都会产生二氧化碳，除了发展中的的可再生能源与核能 我们现有的所有发电方式都会产生二氧化碳，除了发展中的的可再生能源与核能


And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale, is create a new system.

所以，我们需要在全球范围内建立一个新系统，我们需要能源奇迹 所以，我们需要在全球范围内建立一个新系统，我们需要能源奇迹


所以，我们需要在全球范围内建立一个新系统，我们需要能源奇迹


Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.

虽然我用了“奇迹”一词，但这并不是说这件事是不可能的


The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.

微处理器是奇迹，个人电脑是奇迹，互联网及其应用也是奇迹


The Internet and its services are a miracle.

微处理器是奇迹，个人电脑是奇迹，互联网及其应用也是奇迹


So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

也就是说，在座的各位已经目睹甚至参与了很多奇迹的发生


Usually, we don't have a deadline, where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

一般来说，我们不会对奇迹的发生设置最后期限 一般来说，我们不会对奇迹的发生设置最后期限


Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

通常，你只是袖手旁观，有些奇迹就发生了，有些则没有


This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.

但在低碳减排这件事上，我们必须全力以赴去推动，从而在最终期限前实现这一奇迹 但在低碳减排这件事上，我们必须全力以赴去推动，从而在最终期限前实现这一奇迹


Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?

我想，我怎样才能更好地呈现这一问题呢？有没有一种自然生动的表达？


Is there some kind of natural illustration, some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"

我想，我怎样才能更好地呈现这一问题呢？有没有一种自然生动的表达？ 有没有某种演示能激发人们的想象力？


I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos, and somehow people enjoyed that.

我回想起一年前我带了些蚊子到这里来，大家好像还蛮喜欢的 我回想起一年前我带了些蚊子到这里来，大家好像还蛮喜欢的


It really got them involved in the idea of, you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.

蚊子让那次的与会者真正地意识到：世界上有些人是与蚊子一起生活的 蚊子让那次的与会者真正地意识到：世界上有些人是与蚊子一起生活的


So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.

所以，今天既然在谈能源，我想到带来这个：萤火虫


I decided that releasing fireflies would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

我决定，放飞萤火虫将是我今年对这里环境做出的贡献 我决定，放飞萤火虫将是我今年对这里环境做出的贡献


这是几只天然的萤火虫，据说不咬人，说不定它们都懒得出那个罐子 这是几只天然的萤火虫，据说不咬人，说不定它们都懒得出那个罐子


I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

这是几只天然的萤火虫，据说不咬人，说不定它们都懒得出那个罐子 像萤火虫这样的解决能源问题有奇思妙想有很多，但实际作用相当有限


Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one, but they don't really add up to much.

我们需要的是解决方案，一个或很多个都行，极具规模性和可靠性的解决方案 我们需要的是解决方案，一个或很多个都行，极具规模性和可靠性的解决方案


We need solutions -- either one or several -- that have unbelievable scale and unbelievable reliability, and, although there's many directions people are seeking, I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

我们需要的是解决方案，一个或很多个都行，极具规模性和可靠性的解决方案 尽管人们在多方探索，我觉得目前只有五个方向可以有大作为 尽管人们在多方探索，我觉得目前只有五个方向可以有大作为


I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

我没有包括潮汐、地热、聚变和生物燃料等，那些都将有所贡献


Those may make some contribution, and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better, but my key point here is that we're going to have to work on each of these five, and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting, because they all have significant challenges.

我没有包括潮汐、地热、聚变和生物燃料等，那些都将有所贡献 如果它们的表现能超过我的预期，当然更好 但关键的是，我们在这五种方式上必须全部大力投入 但关键的是，我们在这五种方式上必须全部大力投入 不能因为他们看似艰巨而放弃，因为它们都包含着严峻的挑战 不能因为他们看似艰巨而放弃，因为它们都包含着严峻的挑战


Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels, either burning coal or burning natural gas.

首先来看一下化石燃料，烧煤或者烧气 首先来看一下化石燃料，烧煤或者烧气


What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not, and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue, pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere, and hope it stays there.

我们需要做的，说来简单，其实不然 需要采取的措施是把所有燃烧产生的二氧化碳，通过烟囱收集，然后加压、液化,储存 需要采取的措施是把所有燃烧产生的二氧化碳，通过烟囱收集，然后加压、液化、储存，并保证不泄漏 需要采取的措施是把所有燃烧产生的二氧化碳，通过烟囱收集，然后加压、液化、储存，并保证不泄漏


Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level, but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky, and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard, but the toughest one here is this long-term issue.

当前的试验已经能做到60％至80%的水平，但要做到百分之百会十分的困难 当前的试验已经能做到60％至80%的水平，但要做到百分之百会十分的困难 并且在哪里储存那么大量的二氧化碳也容易引起争议 最困难的是这是个长期问题


Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?

这些废料体积十亿倍于其它核废料等废品，谁能保证长期安全？ 这些废料体积十亿倍于其它核废料等废品，谁能保证长期安全？


这个二氧化碳的量非常大，所以会十分困难


下一个，核能，同样有三个大问题


It also has three big problems: Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high; the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong, that, even though you have these human operators, that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

下一个，核能，同样有三个大问题 它的成本，尤其是在高度管控的国家，非常高 安全问题，保证一切有条不紊 即使有人工操作 即使核燃料不会被用作武器


还有核废弃物要怎么处理的问题


And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.

虽然量并不大，但有很多令人顾虑的地方


好的解决方式必须让人们感到安心


So three very tough problems that might be solvable, and so, should be worked on.

这是三个困难但可能可以解决的问题 所以需要继续努力


The last three of the five, I've grouped together.

五种能源的最后三个，我会放在一起来讲


These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.

这是人们通常称为可再生能源的三种能源


And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel -- they have some disadvantages.

事实上，它们虽然不需要燃料 但也有不足之处


One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies is dramatically less than a power plant.

首先是这些技术所收集到的能源的密度，要远远小于电厂 首先是这些技术所收集到的能源的密度，要远远小于电厂


This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles, thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.

这是能源农业，其规模都是平方公里级的 比常规的发电厂要大几千倍


还有，这些能源是间歇性的


The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day, and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.

太阳不是一整天都有，也不是每天都有 同样，风也不是一直在吹


And so, if you depend on these sources, you have to have some way of getting the energy during those time periods that it's not available.

如果完全依赖这些来源 你还得有其它渠道来获取能源，以度过间歇期 你还得有其它渠道来获取能源，以度过间歇期


So, we've got big cost challenges here, we have transmission challenges: for example, say this energy source is outside your country; you not only need the technology, but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.

因此，我们面临巨大的成本问题 还有传输方面的挑战 比如说，某个能源来源在国外 你不仅需要能源技术 还要应对能源不在国内的相关风险


And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at all the types of batteries that get made -- for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything -- and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses, and what I found is that all the batteries we make now could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.

为了让这个问题具体化，我仔细研究了所有现有的电池 为了让这个问题具体化，我仔细研究了所有现有的电池 车用的，电脑用的，手机的，手电筒的，所有的东西上用的电池 把其存储电量与世界每日消耗电能比较 我发现我们现在制造的所有电池 只能储存不到10分钟的所有能源


And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here, something that's going to be a factor of 100 better than the approaches we have now.

所以，实际上，我们需要一个重大的突破 需要一个比现在的技术好一百倍的解决方案 需要一个比现在的技术好一百倍的解决方案


It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.

这并不是不可能的，但也不会很容易


Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.

这样，我们可以用间歇性能源 提供20%-30%所需的能量


If you're counting on it for 100 percent, you need an incredible miracle battery.

但如果你希望100%地依赖它 你需要一个非常高效的奇迹电池


Now, how we're going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?

那么，我们怎么进行下去呢？正确的方法在哪里？


Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?

这会是一个曼哈顿计划吗？我们怎么才能到达彼岸？


Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds.

我们需要很多公司来共同努力，几百家公司


In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.

对五种方法中的每一种，我们都需要至少100人的团队


And a lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good.

里面的很多人，你会觉得他们很疯狂，这就对了。


And, I think, here in the TED group, we have many people who are already pursuing this.

我认为，在TED团队里 已经有很多人开始致力于此


Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar that has some great solar thermal technologies.

比尔格罗斯有好几家公司，其中一个叫eSolar，拥有非常棒的太阳能发热技术 比尔格罗斯有好几家公司，其中一个叫eSolar，拥有非常棒的太阳能发热技术


Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities, and I'm trying to help back that.

维诺德科斯拉投资了几十家公司 他们的工作非常棒，并提出很有趣的可能性 我也计划支持他们的项目


Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.

其实纳珊米赫沃尔德和我已经在支持一家公司 也许有点让人吃惊，但这个公司是核能方向的


There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.

在核能方面虽然近年有些小创新， 像模具化，液体使用等等


And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago, so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.

但其实创新在这个行业已经停止有一段时间了 所以现在出现一些好点子不是什么太奇怪的事情


The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium -- the one percent, which is the U235 -- we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."

Terrapower的想法是：不去烧常规的铀U235 Terrapower的想法是：不去烧常规的铀U235 而是烧剩下的99%，即U238


这是个有些疯狂的想法，但其实，人们已经讨论了很长时间


In fact, people had talked about it for a long time, but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not, and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers that now you can simulate and see that, yes, with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work.

这是个有些疯狂的想法，但其实，人们已经讨论了很长时间 但一直无法很好地模拟出这是否可行 有了现代超级计算机的不断升级 我们现在能做这个模拟，而且可以预见， 只要用对材料，这方案是可行的


And, because you're burning that 99 percent, you have greatly improved cost profile.

而且，因为我们烧的是以前丢弃的99%核废料 成本可以极大地降低


You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel all the leftover waste from today's reactors.

你实际上是把废料变作燃料 再也不用担心该怎样处理现有所有核反应堆的废料，这是个很好的消息


So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that. It's a great thing.

再也不用担心该怎样处理现有所有核反应堆的废料，这是个很好的消息


It breathes this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.

这种技术就像蜡烛一样,逐渐烧尽铀废料


You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.

过程就如这根柱子所示,通常被称为浪潮反应堆


In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.


I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.

这是肯塔基州的一个废料场


This is the leftover, the 99 percent, where they've taken out the part they burn now, so it's called depleted uranium.

这就是那些废料,那99% 这就是U235已耗尽的燃料 被称作耗尽的铀


That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years.

这些可以为全美国供电数百年


And, simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process, you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.

另外，仅仅是通过低成本的海水过滤程序 得到的燃料就足以供应地球下半辈子使用


So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead, but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas that we need to move forward.

你看, 前面还会有很多挑战 但这只是数百种方法中的一个例子 需要我们继续推进


So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?

想一想，我们要如何衡量我们的成就


我们的成绩单应该打多少分？


Well, let's go out to where we really need to get, and then look at the intermediate.

先来看一下我们的最终目标，再倒推来看我们的中期目标 先来看一下我们的最终目标，再倒推来看我们的中期目标


For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.

已经有很多人在谈到2050年前减碳80%


That really is very important, that we get there.

这真的非常重要，我们必须完成这个目标


And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries, still some agriculture, hopefully we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.

而剩下那20%应是贫穷国家的份额 比如一些农业国家 但愿，我们到时已经清理了伐木业和水泥业


So, to get to that 80 percent, the developed countries, including countries like China, will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.

所以，要达到这80% 发达国家，以及中国这些国家 需要共同改变它们的发电方式


So, the other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology, have we deployed it in all the developed countries and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere?

另外一级是，我们是否部署了零排放技术 我们是否在所有发达国家里都采用了该项技术 并且在向其他地区推广的过程中


That's a key element of making that report card.

这是交出优秀答卷的关键因素


So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?

从2050年往回推，我们2020年的成绩应该是怎样呢？


Well, again, it should have the two elements.


We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions: The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2, and, therefore, the less the temperature.

我们应该仔细审查那些衡量效率的标准以开始减少排放 我们排放的越少，二氧化碳总量就越少 温度也就越低


But in some ways, the grade we get there, doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions, is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other, which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.

但从某个角度来说，我们在2020年取得的成绩 做一些有所减排但并非大量减排的事 仅仅等同于,或低轻于另一件事情的重要性 那就是带来关键突破的那些创新


These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed, and we can measure that in terms of companies, pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.

我们需要全速达成这些技术突破 我们可以用参与的公司的数目, 试验项目，或是调控政策的变化 来衡量


There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.

关于这个话题有许多很好的书


The Al Gore book, "Our Choice" and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."

比如，戈尔的《我们的选择》 大卫麦基的《不再炽热的可持续能源》


They really go through it and create a framework that this can be discussed broadly, because we need broad backing for this.

他们用心研究, 并且构建了一个框架 便于对该问题的广泛讨论 因为我们需要对这一问题的广泛支持


There's a lot that has to come together.


It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.

我们发明这项技术是个非常具体非常现实的愿望


If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years -- I could pick who's president, I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love, or I could pick that this thing that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented -- this is the wish I would pick.

如果我能为下个50年许一个愿望 我可以选择谁来当总统 或者选择一个疫苗，那是我热爱的事业 或者选择能源这件事 发明出能将能源价格减半并且零排放的技术 我肯定会选择能源


This is the one with the greatest impact.


If we don't get this wish, the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible, between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich, and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse.

如果我们没法实现这个愿望 考虑短期目标和长期目标的人们之间会有巨大分歧 美国与中国，穷国和富国之间, 会有巨大分歧 而二十亿人最穷的人中大多数的生活会极大恶化


What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?

我恳求你们参与推动的到底是什么？


We need to go for more research funding.


When countries get together in places like Copenhagen, they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.

在像哥本哈根这样的会议上 各国不应该只讨论二氧化碳减排日程表


They should discuss this innovation agenda, and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending on these innovative approaches.

也应该讨论创新的日程表 对这些创新方法的投入之低 绝对会让你震惊


We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade -- something that gets that price signal out there.

我们确实需要一些市场激励，二氧化碳税费，限额和交易 用这些东西来发出价格信号


We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue, including the steps that the government takes.

我们应该让这一对话更加理性，更加易于理解 包括政府所采取的措施


This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.

这是一个重要的愿望，并且我觉得这是一个可以实现的愿望


Thank you. So to understand more about TerraPower, right -- I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?

谢谢 谢谢，我对Terrapower更了解了 首先，你能大概说下这个投资会是多大规模吗？


Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer, hire all the great scientists, which we've done, that's only tens of millions, and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor to make sure that our materials work properly, then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.

比尔盖茨：如果只是买超级计算机, 做出软件 雇佣优秀的科学家，这些我们已经做到了 大概只用几千万 我们甚至去一个俄罗斯的反应堆测试了我们的材料 看看它是否能够正常工作 加起来也不过花费几个亿


The tough thing is building the pilot reactor; finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location that will actually build the first one of these.

最难的是建造试验反应堆 筹措几十亿，找到管理者，选定地点 这样才能建起第一座这样的核电站


Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised, then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density, are so different than nuclear as we know it.

当你建起第一座后，如果它确实像说的那样有用， 那一切就都简单了，因为它的经济性、能源密度 与我们所熟悉的核能完全不同


CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel, of this sort of spent uranium, and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?

主持人：那么，是不是说，这需要往地下建造 一个用这种废弃铀建成的垂直核燃料柱 一个用这种废弃铀建成的垂直核燃料柱 然后反应从上往下渐进？


BG: That's right. Today, you're always refueling the reactor, so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong: that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out, that's not good.

盖茨：没错。现在的核反应堆, 你得不停的重新加燃料 所以有很多人为因素和控制可能出错 你需要打开反应堆, 把核燃料搬进搬出，这些都可能出错，一点儿不保险 你需要打开反应堆, 把核燃料搬进搬出，这些都可能出错，一点儿不保险


So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in -- just think of it as a log -- put it down and not have those same complexities.

所以，如果有非常便宜的燃料，一根木柱的大小，就够使用60年 所以，如果有非常便宜的燃料，一根木柱的大小，就够使用60年 把它放下，没有那些复杂的后果


And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.

放那儿烧个六十年，然后没了


CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.

主持人：那样的核电站本身就是自身废弃物的处理站


BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste, you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach -- then you can actually take that, and put it into another one and burn that.

盖茨：没错。这个过程产生的垃圾 你可以放在那儿，用这种办法只产生很少的废料 你也可以把它放到另外一个核电站里烧掉 你也可以把它放到另外一个核电站里烧掉


And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today, that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactors -- that's our fuel to begin with.

我们可以从处理现有核电站产生的垃圾开始 那些现在在冷却池或者反应堆旁的干罐里的废物 这是我们开始时的燃料


So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors is actually what gets fed into ours, and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically as you're going through this process.

这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物 这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物 这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物 这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物


CA: I mean, you're talking to different people around the world about the possibilities here.

主持人：你和其他地方的人的谈话中 谈到这些可能性的时候


Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?

哪些人对实施这件事兴趣最大？


BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place, and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called "nuclear," so we've got a lot of interest, that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China -- I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here, talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.

盖茨：我们还没有选定一个特定的地方 由于到处都有关于核问题的保密规定 很多人表示了兴趣 俄罗斯，印度，中国的公司都表现了浓厚的兴趣 我也曾经在这里找过能源部长 谈论如何将这件事融入能源日程表


So I'm optimistic. You know, the French and Japanese have done some work.

总地来说我很乐观，同时，法国和日本已经做了一些工作


This is a variant on something that has been done.


It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor, and a lot of countries have built them, so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate to be where the first one gets built.

这是一个重要的进步，但像一个快速反应堆 很多国家已经修建了这样的反应堆 只要你已经有了快速反应堆，就可能成为第一个核垃圾重利用站的建设者


CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood of actually taking something like this live?

主持人：就你看来，实现这一计划的时间跨度和可能性如何？ 主持人：就你看来，实现这一计划的时间跨度和可能性如何？


BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things that's very cheap, we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.

盖茨：建一个这种大规模的电站，并且成本要非常低 盖茨：建一个这种大规模的电站，并且成本要非常低 我们有20年时间来发明，再有20年时间来执行


That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models have shown us that we have to meet.

这大致也是我们的环境模型所计算出的最终期限 这大致也是我们的环境模型所计算出的最终期限


And, you know, TerraPower, if things go well -- which is wishing for a lot -- could easily meet that.

如果Terrapower一切顺利的话，当然那样会很不容易，可以很容易地满足这一要求 如果Terrapower一切顺利的话，当然那样会很不容易，可以很容易地满足这一要求


And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies -- we need it to be hundreds -- who, likewise, if their science goes well, if the funding for their pilot plants goes well, that they can compete for this.

目前还有数十家公司在从事这一事业 我们需要几百家 如果它们科研进展顺利 如果他们的试验电站的筹资顺利 他们都可以竞争这项任务


And it's best if multiple succeed, because then you could use a mix of these things.

如果能够多方成功那是最好 因为这样就可以同时利用多种方式


但我们至少需要一种能够成功


CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes, is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?

主持人：如果说到可能的大规模的创新 这个是不是你知道的最大的一个


BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.

盖茨：能源的突破是最重要的事


It would have been, even without the environmental constraint, but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.

即使没有环境的限制，它还会是最重要的问题 环境的限制使它变得更为突出，更为紧迫


In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.

在核领域，还有其它的创新者


You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one, but the modular people, that's a different approach.

但我对他们的工作,我们没有像对这个项目一样清楚 有些人在模块方面的创新,是另外一种方式


There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard, but maybe they say that about us.

还有一种液态反应堆，实现起来有点困难 但也许他们看我们的方式也觉得困难


And so, there are different ones, but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal, and so -- if you can deal with the negatives, which are essentially the radiation -- the footprint and cost, the potential, in terms of effect on land and various things, is almost in a class of its own.

所以，有很多不同的办法 但核能的美妙之处在于, 一个铀分子所含的能量是其它能源的一百万倍 但核能的美妙之处在于, 一个铀分子所含的能量是其它能源的一百万倍 如果能够处理好负面因素，主要是辐射 如果能够处理好负面因素，主要是辐射 其碳排放、成本以及潜能潜能，就其各种因素而言，将是无与伦比的 其碳排放、成本以及潜能潜能，就其各种因素而言，将是无与伦比的 其碳排放、成本以及潜能潜能，就其各种因素而言，将是无与伦比的


主持人；如果我们没能成功怎么办？


Do we have to start taking emergency measures to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?

我们得采取什么紧急措施 来保证地球温度的稳定？


BG: If you get into that situation, it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart attack: Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something.

盖茨：如果事情发展到那一步 就像吃的太多，可能会得心脏病一样 怎么办？你可能需要心脏手术之类的


There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering, which are various techniques that would delay the heating to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.

有一种研究叫做地球工程学 通过各种技术来延缓全球变暖 可以为我们争取20-30年的时间来共同行动


不过,那就像是一个保险政策


Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy because it might make you lazy, that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.

有些人说根本不应该研究保险措施 因为这会使人懈怠 你会持续进食，反正你知道心脏手术可以挽救你


I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem, but there's now the geoengineering discussion about -- should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster, or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?

考虑到问题的重要性，我不知道这样是否明智 现在关于地球工程的讨论 应该作为一个后备选择, 以防形势恶化得更快 或者技术创新迟于我们的预期


CA: Climate skeptics: If you had a sentence or two to say to them, how might you persuade them that they're wrong?

主持人：对气候变化论的怀疑者, 如果让你对他们说一两句话 你会怎么说服他们？


BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.

盖茨：很不幸，怀疑论者来自不同阵营


The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.


Are they saying that there's negative feedback effects that have to do with clouds that offset things?

他们说那些负反馈的结果是由于云的关系 他们说那些负反馈的结果是由于云的关系


There are very, very few things that they can even say there's a chance in a million of those things.

他们极少能举出令人信服的证据 即使是百万分之一的概率


The main problem we have here, it's kind of like AIDS.

这里的主要问题就像艾滋病


You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.

现在犯错，将来得加倍的承受痛苦


And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems, the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later, and a somewhat uncertain pain thing -- in fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case, and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC and say, "OK, that isn't that big of a deal."

因此，当你遇到各种紧要问题时 现在承受痛苦关系到将来的收益 而且还是个不确定的痛苦 实际上，IPCC报告，那还不是最坏的情况 而且，发达国家也有人看了报告后，说这没什么大不了的 而且，发达国家也有人看了报告后，说这没什么大不了的


The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.

事实上, 不确定的方面应该促进我们向这方面努力


But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic, and meet the CO2 constraints, then the skeptics say, "OK, I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2, I kind of wish it did put out CO2, but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before."

但是我的愿望是, 如果你把能源生产变得经济了，同时也符合二氧化碳排放限制 但是我的愿望是, 如果你把能源生产变得经济了，同时也符合二氧化碳排放限制 那么怀疑论者会说：好的，虽然我不关心二氧化碳排放的事情 那么怀疑论者会说：好的，虽然我不关心二氧化碳排放的事情 我甚至还有点希望它会排放二氧化碳 但我会采纳这一新方法,因为能源比以前更便宜了 但我会采纳这一新方法,因为能源比以前更便宜了


CA: And so, that would be your response to the Bjorn Lomborg argument, that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem, it's going to take away all your other goals of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth, it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that when there are better things we can do.

主持人: 是否可以说，这就是你对比约恩隆伯格的回应 也就是说，如果你花所有精力来解决二氧化碳的问题，那就会取代其他目标 也就是说，如果你花所有精力来解决二氧化碳的问题，那就会取代其他目标 比如解决世界贫困, 或者疟疾等等的目标 把钱投到那些领域是对资本的浪费，我们有更重要的事情要做 把钱投到那些领域是对资本的浪费，我们有更重要的事情要做


BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece -- say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now -- it's not that dramatic.

盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情 盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情 盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情


It shouldn't take away from other things.

盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情


The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree, is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that -- that, to me, mostly is a waste.

对于需要投巨资的事业, 如果不经济没有回报，对我而言基本是浪费，这点有些人可能持不同意见 对于需要投巨资的事业, 如果不经济没有回报，对我而言基本是浪费，这点有些人可能持不同意见 对于需要投巨资的事业, 如果不经济没有回报，对我而言基本是浪费，这点有些人可能持不同意见


Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve and it's going to get very cheap, I believe we should try more things that have a potential to be far less expensive.

除非你已经很接近成功, 而且你在投资学习曲线，并且它将会变得很便宜 除非你已经很接近成功, 而且你在投资学习曲线，并且它将会变得很便宜 否则，我认为我们应该多方尝试具有低成本潜力的方案 否则，我认为我们应该多方尝试具有低成本潜力的方案


If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive," then the rich can afford that.

如果为了解决气候问题，最后让能源变的异常昂贵，贵到只有富人用得起 如果为了解决气候问题，最后让能源变的异常昂贵，贵到只有富人用得起


I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy and not change our lifestyle.

对在坐各位来说，如果能源价格提高五倍，还不至于影响我们的生活方式 对在坐各位来说，如果能源价格提高五倍，还不至于影响我们的生活方式


但对地球上那二十亿穷人来说就是个灾难了


而且隆伯格的观点已经变了，他的论点现在是，为什么研究没有得到更多的关注


His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?"

而且隆伯格的观点已经变了，他的论点现在是，为什么研究没有得到更多的关注


He's still, because of his earlier stuff, still associated with the skeptic camp, but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp, and so, he's making the R&D point.

基于历史的原因, 他还是属于怀疑论阵营，但是他已经意识到那是个相当孤独的阵营 基于历史的原因, 他还是属于怀疑论阵营，但是他已经意识到那是个相当孤独的阵营 基于历史的原因, 他还是属于怀疑论阵营，但是他已经意识到那是个相当孤独的阵营 所以,他开始摆出关于研发方面的观点


And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.

我觉得那是一个非常值得探讨的话题，因为对科研的投入之少实在是不可理喻


The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded.

我觉得那是一个非常值得探讨的话题，因为对科研的投入之少实在是不可理喻


CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here to say I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much.

主持人：比尔, 我想这里的大多数人都跟我一样，真心希望你的梦想成真，非常感谢！ 主持人：比尔, 我想这里的大多数人都跟我一样，真心希望你的梦想成真，非常感谢！


I'd like to share with you a discovery that I made a few months ago while writing an article for Italian Wired.

我想把我几个月之前的一个大发现与大家分享一下 我当时正在为一家意大利杂志"Wired"写一篇文章


I always keep my thesaurus handy whenever I'm writing anything, but I'd already finished editing the piece, and I realized that I had never once in my life looked up the word "disabled" to see what I'd find.

我在写作的时候总是把同义词词典放在手边 我当时已经把文章编辑完了 才意识到我一生中还从来没有 在字典中查找“残疾的”的具体意思


让我把这个词条念给大家听


"Disabled, adjective: crippled, helpless, useless, wrecked, stalled, maimed, wounded, mangled, lame, mutilated, run-down, worn-out, weakened, impotent, castrated, paralyzed, handicapped, senile, decrepit, laid-up, done-up, done-for, done-in cracked-up, counted-out; see also hurt, useless and weak.

“残疾的”，形容词，意为：“残废的，无助的，无用的，残破的 停滞的，被破坏的，受伤的，被损毁的，跛脚的，被肢解的 破损的，累坏了的，虚弱的，无力的，丧失力量的，瘫痪的，身体功能存在障碍的 衰老的，破旧的，被闲置的，精疲力尽的，没用的，疲劳的 破烂的，不被考虑的” 另见：“受伤的，无用的，虚弱的”


反义词：“健康的，强壮的，有能力的”


I was reading this list out loud to a friend and at first was laughing, it was so ludicrous, but I'd just gotten past "mangled," and my voice broke, and I had to stop and collect myself from the emotional shock and impact that the assault from these words unleashed.

我当时把以上内容出声地读给我一个朋友听，一开始我笑了 这太荒唐了 当我念到“被损毁了”的时候，我哽咽了 我不得不停下来 让自己被这些词汇打击与侮辱后恢复情绪


You know, of course, this is my raggedy old thesaurus so I'm thinking this must be an ancient print date, right?

是的，我的这本老同义词词典也很破旧了 我想，这本词典也一定是很老的版本了


But, in fact, the print date was the early 1980s, when I would have been starting primary school and forming an understanding of myself outside the family unit and as related to the other kids and the world around me.

但实际上，它的出版日期却是上世纪80年代 当时我应该刚上小学 在家庭之外的大环境下形成对自己的认知 并且与我身边的孩子们和世界建立联系


And, needless to say, thank God I wasn't using a thesaurus back then.

谢天谢地，我当年没用过同义词词典 我的意思是，通过同义词词典上对“残疾的”这一词的解释


I mean, from this entry, it would seem that I was born into a world that perceived someone like me to have nothing positive whatsoever going for them, when in fact, today I'm celebrated for the opportunities and adventures my life has procured.

就能看出，我所生活的世界并不认可像我这样的残疾人 这个世界认为我们残疾人身上毫无积极向上的因素 然而今天，我却在为我人生为我带来的一切历险与机会 庆幸不已


So, I immediately went to look up the 2009 online edition, expecting to find a revision worth noting.

所以，我立刻上网查“残疾的”这一词在2009年版本同义词词典中的解释 我当时期待着看到一些重要的修订


Here's the updated version of this entry.

下面我给大家读“残疾的”这一词新版本的解释


很不幸，词条的解释没比当年强多少


I find the last two words under "Near Antonyms," particularly unsettling: "whole" and "wholesome."

这个词条中"接近反义词"中的两个词尤其让我很不好受 它们是：“完整的，健全的”


实际上，这不仅仅是几个单词的事


It's what we believe about people when we name them with these words.

当人们用那种消极的词汇形容残疾人的时候，实际上反映出来的是人们对残疾人的看法


It's about the values behind the words, and how we construct those values.

值得注意的是描述残疾人的那些词汇的背后所体现的人们内心的价值观，以及这种价值观形成的过程


Our language affects our thinking and how we view the world and how we view other people.

我们的语言影响着我们的思维 以及我们看待这个世界的方式、看待他人的方式


In fact, many ancient societies, including the Greeks and the Romans, believed that to utter a curse verbally was so powerful, because to say the thing out loud brought it into existence.

实际上，包括古希腊、古罗马等许多古代社会 都相信言语诅咒的巨大威力 因为话一旦被说了出来，便是真实地存在了


So, what reality do we want to call into existence: a person who is limited, or a person who's empowered?

那么，我们究竟想让什么样的事物存在呢 是一个没有能力的人，还是一个有能力的人呢


By casually doing something as simple as naming a person, a child, we might be putting lids and casting shadows on their power.

有时候，我们只是随便地给一个成人或孩子命名 却有可能限制住了他们的发展，给他们蒙上阴影，让他们对自己的能力质疑


Wouldn't we want to open doors for them instead?

难道我们不想为他们开启心灵之门么


One such person who opened doors for me was my childhood doctor at the A.I. duPont Institute in Wilmington, Delaware.

我的生命中就有这样一个人，为我开启了心灵之门，他是在我小时候照顾我的一位医生 他在德拉华州威尔明顿的A.I. Dupont研究院工作


His name was Dr. Pizzutillo, an Italian American, whose name, apparently, was too difficult for most Americans to pronounce, so he went by Dr. P.

他的名字叫Pizzutillo 是一位意大利裔美国人 很显然，他的名字很多美国人念出来都很困难 下面不妨就叫他P医生好了


And Dr. P always wore really colorful bow ties and had the very perfect disposition to work with children. I loved almost everything about my time spent at this hospital, with the exception of my physical therapy sessions.

P医生总是打着色彩鲜艳的领结 他为人的修养、气质使得他和孩子们相处得很好 除了身体训练课程之外


I had to do what seemed like innumerable repetitions of exercises with these thick, elastic bands -- different colors, you know -- to help build up my leg muscles, and I hated these bands more than anything -- I hated them, had names for them. I hated them.

我在他的医院里面度过的时光都是很快乐的 我要用那种很粗的、五颜六色的、富有弹性的带子 一遍又一遍地做着体能训练 锻炼腿部肌肉 我简直恨透那些带子了 恨透了，我甚至还给它们都起了名字


And, you know, I was already bargaining, as a five year-old child, with Dr. P to try to get out of doing these exercises, unsuccessfully, of course.

当时我还是个五岁的孩子，便和P医生讨价还价 求他别再让我那些体能训练了 当然，我没有得逞


And, one day, he came in to my session -- exhaustive and unforgiving, these sessions -- and he said to me, "Wow. Aimee, you are such a strong and powerful little girl, I think you're going to break one of those bands.

然而有一天，P医生在我做体能训练的时候来看我了 嗯，那些无情的、令人精疲力尽的体能训练 然后他对我说：“艾米，你真是个强壮的小姑娘啊 我感觉有一天你能把这些带子弄断


When you do break it, I'm going to give you a hundred bucks."

你弄断的时候，我就奖励你100美元“


Now, of course, this was a simple ploy on Dr. P's part to get me to do the exercises I didn't want to do before the prospect of being the richest five-year-old in the second floor ward, but what he effectively did for me was reshape an awful daily occurrence into a new and promising experience for me.

很显然，这是P医生的一个小把戏罢了 他只不过是想让我做这些我根本不爱做的体能训练 用“有一天变成所有二楼病房五岁病人中最富有的”来诱惑我 但是P医生确实成功做到了一件事情 那便是将一个我所痛恨的日程转化为一个全新的、充满了前景的经历


And I have to wonder today to what extent his vision and his declaration of me as a strong and powerful little girl shaped my own view of myself as an inherently strong, powerful and athletic person well into the future.

今天，我常常在思考，P医生当年的视野 以及他给我的“强壮的小姑娘”这一称谓 对我自我认知的影响有多么大 现如今，我已经能认识到我的内在是强壮有力的，我的未来一片光明


This is an example of how adults in positions of power can ignite the power of a child.

P医生的这个例子就很好的说明了 一位拥有力量的成年人能够点燃一个孩子的潜能


But, in the previous instances of those thesaurus entries, our language isn't allowing us to evolve into the reality that we would all want, the possibility of an individual to see themselves as capable.

但是，在更前面提到的那个同义词词典的例子中 我们的语言并没能让我们把我们所希望看到的事物变成现实 并没能让残疾人意识到他们自己实际上是有能力的


Our language hasn't caught up with the changes in our society, Certainly, from a medical standpoint, my legs, laser surgery for vision impairment, titanium knees and hip replacements for aging bodies that are allowing people to more fully engage with their abilities, and move beyond the limits that nature has imposed on them -- not to mention social networking platforms allow people to self-identify, to claim their own descriptions of themselves,

科技的发展带动社会的发展 而我们的语言并没有随着社会与时俱进 当然，从医学的角度来讲 我的假腿，修复我视力的激光手术 人工钛金膝盖，为老年人提供的股骨头替换手术 种种这些技术都能使得人们更充分地运用他们的能力 并且超越自然环境施加给他们的种种限制 并且为我们这些残疾人搭建社交平台 让我们这些人能自我认同


so they can go align with global groups of their own choosing.

从而允许我们在全球范围内选择结交的对象


So, perhaps technology is revealing more clearly to us now what has always been a truth: that everyone has something rare and powerful to offer our society, and that the human ability to adapt is our greatest asset.

所以说，科技正更清楚地向我们展示着 一个永恒的真理 那就是，我们每一个人都是非常强大的，都是能为社会做贡献的 以及适应环境的能力是人类最伟大的资本


The human ability to adapt, it's an interesting thing, because people have continually wanted to talk to me about overcoming adversity, and I'm going to make an admission: This phrase never sat right with me, and I always felt uneasy trying to answer people's questions about it, and I think I'm starting to figure out why.

谈起人类适应环境这一本领，我感觉很有意思 因为人们经常想让我就“克服逆境”这一话题讲一讲 今天我想做一点声明 “克服逆境”这一说对我来说根本不成立 别人让我就这一话题说几句的时候，我很不自在 我开始思考为什么会这样


Implicit in this phrase of "overcoming adversity" is the idea that success, or happiness, is about emerging on the other side of a challenging experience unscathed or unmarked by the experience, as if my successes in life have come about from an ability to sidestep or circumnavigate the presumed pitfalls of a life with prosthetics, or what other people perceive as my disability.

“克服逆境”这个词有一个隐含的意思 那就是成功，或者快乐 都在一段艰难的经历的另一端 而这段经历本身却与成功和快乐无关 就好像是说，我这一生之所以能成功 是因为我绕过了作为一个截肢人所要面临的一系列挑战 绕过在别人看来制约我的一些因素


But, in fact, we are changed. We are marked, of course, by a challenge, whether physically, emotionally or both.

但实际上，这些挑战实实在在地改变了我们，在我们的人生旅程中烙下了印记 这种改变可能是身体上的，可能是精神上的，也可能两者兼具


And I'm going to suggest that this is a good thing.

我想说的是，面临挑战不失为一件好事


Adversity isn't an obstacle that we need to get around in order to resume living our life.

面对逆境，我们不应把它当成障碍绕过它 从而继续我们的生活


其实，逆境是我们生活的一部分


And I tend to think of it like my shadow.

我把逆境想象成我自己的影子


Sometimes I see a lot of it, sometimes there's very little, but it's always with me.

有的时候它看起来很大，有的时候很小 但是它始终在我身边


And, certainly, I'm not trying to diminish the impact, the weight, of a person's struggle.

当然，我不是试图贬低人们与逆境作斗争的价值和意义


There is adversity and challenge in life, and it's all very real and relative to every single person, but the question isn't whether or not you're going to meet adversity, but how you're going to meet it.

我们在一生中注定要经历逆境与挑战 我们每个人都是 但是我们所关注的问题并不是你是否要去面对逆境 而是如何去面对它


So, our responsibility is not simply shielding those we care for from adversity, but preparing them to meet it well.

所以，我们的责任不是简简单单地让我们关心的人生活在温床里 而是让他们能够形成从容应对逆境的能力


And we do a disservice to our kids when we make them feel that they're not equipped to adapt.

当我们让孩子们觉得自己没有适应环境的能力时


There's an important difference and distinction between the objective medical fact of my being an amputee and the subjective societal opinion of whether or not I'm disabled.

我们实际上伤害了他们 从医学的角度客观地判断我是否是一个残疾人 从社会的角度主观地去考虑我是否是一个“残疾人” 此两者间有很大的差别


And, truthfully, the only real and consistent disability I've had to confront is the world ever thinking that I could be described by those definitions.

实际上，我自始至终所要面对的唯一的一个问题 是这个世界对我的种种不公的看法和描述


In our desire to protect those we care about by giving them the cold, hard truth about their medical prognosis, or, indeed, a prognosis on the expected quality of their life, we have to make sure that we don't put the first brick in a wall that will actually disable someone.

我们希望能够保护那些我们在意的人们 我们把冷冰冰的医师诊断报告告诉他们 或者有时候，为他们未来的生活状态做预测 但是我们一定要注意我们的所做所为 是否会摧毁这些人们 也许，人们习惯了只专注于自己的种种缺陷 并想着如何修复这些缺陷


Perhaps the existing model of only looking at what is broken in you and how do we fix it, serves to be more disabling to the individual than the pathology itself.

这种思维定式对残疾人的伤害比残疾人本身的生理缺陷更严重


By not treating the wholeness of a person, by not acknowledging their potency, we are creating another ill on top of whatever natural struggle they might have.

我们不从一个整体的角度看待残疾人 不去承认他们的能力 这对他们本身就很艰难的处境无疑是雪上加霜


We are effectively grading someone's worth to our community.

我们能有效地对一个人对其所在社会的的价值进行评估


So we need to see through the pathology and into the range of human capability.

因此，我们的目光不应该局限在残疾人生理上的缺陷 而是应该注意到他们作为人的价值


And, most importantly, there's a partnership between those perceived deficiencies and our greatest creative ability.

另外，最重要的一点 残疾人的一些缺陷和人类的创造力之间 是存在着联系的


So it's not about devaluing, or negating, these more trying times as something we want to avoid or sweep under the rug, but instead to find those opportunities wrapped in the adversity.

所以，艰辛的奋斗岁月是不该被贬低、否定的 这不是什么我们要避免或者掩盖的事 恰恰相反，我们应该在逆境中寻找机遇


So maybe the idea I want to put out there is not so much overcoming adversity as it is opening ourselves up to it, embracing it, grappling with it, to use a wrestling term, maybe even dancing with it.

其实，我想说明的道理就是 逆境，不是用来"克服"的 我们应该坦然面对它 拥抱它 与它摔打 我刚才用了一个摔角的术语（摔打） 甚至，与它舞蹈


And, perhaps, if we see adversity as natural, consistent and useful, we're less burdened by the presence of it.

也许，如果我们能把逆境看成是自然的、不间断的、对人有用的东西 它的存在对我们来说也不再是负担了


This year we celebrate the 200th birthday of Charles Darwin, and it was 150 years ago, when writing about evolution, that Darwin illustrated, I think, a truth about the human character.

今年我们庆祝了达尔文的200周年诞辰 当达尔文在150年前写物种进化论的时候 他阐明了一个关于人类特征的真理


To paraphrase: It's not the strongest of the species that survives, nor is it the most intelligent that survives; it is the one that is most adaptable to change.

他说的那句话大概意思就是，能生存下来的物种 往往不是最强壮的，也不是最聪明的 而是最能适应外部环境变化的


From Darwin's work, amongst others, we can recognize that the human ability to survive and flourish is driven by the struggle of the human spirit through conflict into transformation.

达尔文等诸位大师的著作都揭示了这一点 人类生存繁衍的能力 源自人类灵魂经历激烈斗争后的转变 就是这样


So, again, transformation, adaptation, is our greatest human skill.

我再重申一遍，人类最伟大的能力，是转变和适应


And, perhaps, until we're tested, we don't know what we're made of.

也许，在我们接受考验之前，我们不知道自己会是什么样子


Maybe that's what adversity gives us: a sense of self, a sense of our own power.

可能这就是逆境所能起到的作用 一种对自我以及个人能力的认识


所以，我们可以给自己一份礼物


We can re-imagine adversity as something more than just tough times.

我们可以把逆境想成一次改变的机遇


Adversity is just change that we haven't adapted ourselves to yet.

逆境是一种改变，而我们只不过还没来得及对其适应


I think the greatest adversity that we've created for ourselves is this idea of normalcy.

我认为，我们给自己创造的最大的困境 是"正统"这一概念


好吧，究竟什么又是“正统”呢


There's common, there's typical. There's no normal, and would you want to meet that poor, beige person if they existed?

我知道什么是“普通的”，什么是“典型的”，但我不知道什么是“正统的” 如果真的有那种贫困的、面黄肌瘦的所谓的“正统人”，你会对他们感兴趣么


If we can change this paradigm from one of achieving normalcy to one of possibility -- or potency, to be even a little bit more dangerous -- we can release the power of so many more children, and invite them to engage their rare and valuable abilities with the community.

如果我们不把精力投入到追求“正统”当中 而是投入到发现各种各样的可能性，发掘各种各样的能力，冒险一下 很多孩子的潜能都会被更好的激发 他们将会充分运用他们独一无二的宝贵的能力，为他们的社区做贡献


Anthropologists tell us that the one thing we as humans have always required of our community members is to be of use, to be able to contribute.

人类学家告诉我们 我们作为人类总是希望我们所在群体中的人们是有用的 是有能力做贡献的


There's evidence that Neanderthals, 60,000 years ago, carried their elderly and those with serious physical injury, and perhaps it's because the life experience of survival of these people proved of value to the community.

六万年前的尼安德特社会就是一个很好的证据 尼安德特人抚养他们社会中的老弱病残 因为他们坚信 老人们丰富的人生阅历是对他们整个社会是很有价值的


They didn't view these people as broken and useless; they were seen as rare and valuable.

老人们从来不会被视作无用的 相反，他们被视为非常珍贵的


A few years ago, I was in a food market in the town where I grew up in that red zone in northeastern Pennsylvania, and I was standing over a bushel of tomatoes.

几年前的一天，我正在故乡的菜市场 就是宾州东北部的那片红区 我当时正站在一筐西红柿旁边


因为正值夏天，我穿的是短裤


I hear this guy, his voice behind me say, "Well, if it isn't Aimee Mullins."

在我的身后传来了一个男子的声音“唉？这不是艾米•慕林斯么”


And I turn around, and it's this older man. I have no idea who he is.

我转过身来，发现是一位我不认识的老者


And I said, "I'm sorry, sir, have we met? I don't remember meeting you."

然后我说，“先生不好意思，我们见过面么？我记不得你了”


He said, "Well, you wouldn't remember meeting me.

他说，“嗯，你是不会记得咱们之间的那次见面的


I mean, when we met I was delivering you from your mother's womb."

因为当时，我正把你从你母亲的子宫里接生出来“


呵呵，我遇到的就是这么一个人


And, but of course, actually, it did click.


This man was Dr. Kean, a man that I had only known about through my mother's stories of that day, because, of course, typical fashion, I arrived late for my birthday by two weeks.

这个人就是基恩大夫 我只是通过母亲当年给我讲的故事才知道这么一个人 我是一个晚产儿，晚产了两周


And so my mother's prenatal physician had gone on vacation, so the man who delivered me was a complete stranger to my parents.

当时负责在我母亲临产期照顾她的医生度假去了 所以最后就由基恩大夫这个我父母之前都不认识的人给我接生了


And, because I was born without the fibula bones, and had feet turned in, and a few toes in this foot and a few toes in that, he had to be the bearer -- this stranger had to be the bearer of bad news.

我出生的时候就没有腓骨 我的脚、脚趾都错位了 基恩大夫不得不传达两个坏消息


He said to me, "I had to give this prognosis to your parents that you would never walk, and you would never have the kind of mobility that other kids have or any kind of life of independence, and you've been making liar out of me ever since."

他对我说,"我当年把诊断报告告诉了你父母 我说，你将永远不会行走 你也永远不会像其他孩子那样跑跑跳跳 你将永远无法独立的生活 可从那以后，你却通过你的努力把我变成了一个大骗子”


The extraordinary thing is that he said he had saved newspaper clippings throughout my whole childhood, whether winning a second grade spelling bee, marching with the Girl Scouts, you know, the Halloween parade, winning my college scholarship, or any of my sports victories, and he was using it, and integrating it into teaching resident students, med students from Hahnemann Medical School and Hershey Medical School.

（鼓掌） 基恩先生做了一件伟大的事情 他从我童年开始就把报纸上所有关于我的报道都剪下来收集了 其中包括我二年级的时候在一次拼字比赛中获胜 和女童子军在万圣节的时候参加游行 大学的时候获得奖学金，以及我种种在体育比赛中的成绩 基恩大夫在用我的故事教育当地的学生们 他用我的故事教育哈奈曼医学院和赫尔希医学院的学生


And he called this part of the course the X Factor, the potential of the human will.

他把我的这些故事叫做他课程中的X因素 叫做人类意志所激发的无穷潜力


No prognosis can account for how powerful this could be as a determinant in the quality of someone's life.

没有任何医疗诊断能够解释这种意志的威力有多么巨大 意志能影响一个人的生活质量


And Dr. Kean went on to tell me, he said, "In my experience, unless repeatedly told otherwise, and even if given a modicum of support, if left to their own devices, a child will achieve."

基恩大夫继续对我说 “尽管有很多次别人都反驳我的观点，根据我的经历 对于孩子们，即使给予他们的支持很少 他们自己也能有所成就”


See, Dr. Kean made that shift in thinking.

看吧，基恩大夫的想法改变了


He understood that there's a difference between the medical condition and what someone might do with it.

他认识到了医疗诊断的结果以及一个人处理这种结果的方式之间 是存在差异的


And there's been a shift in my thinking over time, in that, if you had asked me at 15 years old, if I would have traded prosthetics for flesh-and-bone legs, I wouldn't have hesitated for a second.

几年来，我的想法也有了一定的转变 比如，如果你在我15岁的时候问我 愿不愿意用我现在的假肢换一双真腿 我会毫不犹豫地答应


I aspired to that kind of normalcy back then.

因为我渴望得到那种“正统”


But if you ask me today, I'm not so sure.

但是如果你今天问我同样的问题，我就要三思了


And it's because of the experiences I've had with them, not in spite of the experiences I've had with them.

这是因为我使用假肢的这段经历 对我的影响很大 也许，我已经由内而外地脱胎换骨了


And perhaps this shift in me has happened because I've been exposed to more people who have opened doors for me than those who have put lids and cast shadows on me.

因为，在我所遇到的人里面 为我开启通向新世界的门的人远远多于给我心灵蒙上阴影的人


See, all you really need is one person to show you the epiphany of your own power, and you're off.

看吧，你们所需要的就是这样一个人 他能向你展示你自己的力量 人类的灵魂是包容的


If you can hand somebody the key to their own power -- the human spirit is so receptive -- if you can do that and open a door for someone at a crucial moment, you are educating them in the best sense.

如果你能够给他人一把钥匙，让他自己用这把钥匙开启自己的力量 并且在关键时刻，你能用这把钥匙为别人开启一扇门 你就是在用最好的方式对他们进行教育


You're teaching them to open doors for themselves.

因为你在教他们自己为自己开启通向新世界之门


In fact, the exact meaning of the word "educate" comes from the root word "educe."

实际上，“教育”这个词的意义 来源于“唤出”这个词


It means "to bring forth what is within, to bring out potential."

“唤出”，即把深藏在里面的东西引出来 发掘潜能


So again, which potential do we want to bring out?

那么，我们究竟希望发掘出什么样的潜能呢


There was a case study done in 1960s Britain, when they were moving from grammar schools to comprehensive schools.

这里有个上世纪60年代英国的案例 英国的孩子从小学升到初中这一过程


It's called the streaming trials. We call it "tracking" here in the States.

在英国叫做“统考”，在美国我们管它叫“追踪考试”


It's separating students from A, B, C, D and so on.

考试把学生们按照成绩从高到低分成A、B、C、D四等


And the "A students" get the tougher curriculum, the best teachers, etc.

A等的学生学更难的课程，有更好的老师，等等


Well, they took, over a three-month period, D-level students, gave them A's, told them they were "A's," told them they were bright, and at the end of this three-month period, they were performing at A-level.

这个实验为期三个月 按照成绩应该被归为D等学生被告知他们是A等的学生 他们被告知自己是非常聪明的 三个月的实验结束的时候 这群学生的表现已经相当于A等生了


And, of course, the heartbreaking, flip side of this study, is that they took the "A students" and told them they were "D's."

当然，这个案例研究也有其令人心寒的另一面 那就是，那些本应该被归为A等的学生被告知他们是D等学生


And that's what happened at the end of that three-month period.


Those who were still around in school, besides the people who had dropped out.

他们中的很多人已经辍学了


A crucial part of this case study was that the teachers were duped too.

这个实验的一个要点就是，参与实验的老师们也是不知情的


The teachers didn't know a switch had been made.

老师们不知道学生被调包了


They were simply told, "These are the 'A-students,' these are the 'D-students.'" And that's how they went about teaching them and treating them.

老师们只是被告知哪些是A等生，哪些是D等生 老师也随即"因材施教"了


So, I think that the only true disability is a crushed spirit, a spirit that's been crushed doesn't have hope, it doesn't see beauty, it no longer has our natural, childlike curiosity and our innate ability to imagine.

所以，我认为真正的“残疾”是一个被击败的灵魂 一个对未来没有希望的灵魂 一个无法感知美好的灵魂 一个丧失了孩子般天真的好奇心的灵魂 一个丧失了人类与生俱来的想象力的灵魂


If instead, we can bolster a human spirit to keep hope, to see beauty in themselves and others, to be curious and imaginative, then we are truly using our power well.

假如，我们能够让人类的灵魂始终保持希望 让这灵魂能看到自己以及他人的美 赋予这灵魂好奇心以及想象力 那么我们就算是在很好地运用自己的力量了


When a spirit has those qualities, we are able to create new realities and new ways of being.

只要一个灵魂仍然具备上述的那些品质，那么它就能创造无限可能 以及新的生活方式


I'd like to leave you with a poem by a fourteenth-century Persian poet named Hafiz that my friend, Jacques Dembois told me about, and the poem is called "The God Who Only Knows Four Words": "Every child has known God, not the God of names, not the God of don'ts, but the God who only knows four words and keeps repeating them, saying, 'Come dance with me.

我想在最后送给大家一首诗 诗的作者是十四世纪的波斯诗人哈菲斯 这首诗是我的一个朋友，雅克•邓波讲给我的 诗的名字叫《一个只知道四个字的神》 "每个孩子都知道神的存在 不是有名字的神 不是给你施加种种金规玉律的神 而是一个只会说四个字，并且一遍又一遍重复着它们的神 祂在说，与我共舞


Come, dance with me. Come, dance with me.'" Thank you.