And it creates this kind of social network around a collection of digital photographs that you've actually taken.

它创造出这样的一个社交网络， 围绕着这样一个 实际上是你照的数码相片的收集


In the possibilities of linking together magic, the earth and technology, there are multiple possibilities.

有了这些魔法 地球和科技都联系起来的可能性 这里就会有更多种多样的可能性


In the next book, we plan on having an interaction where you take your iPad out with the video on and through augmented reality, you see this layer of animated pixies appear on a houseplant that's outside your house.

在下本书中，我们计划一种互动 你用iPad的视频 通过增强现实， 你看这层是活泼乱动的精灵 出现在你房子外面的盆栽上


At one point, your screen is filled up with leaves.

在某一点上，你的屏幕上布满了树叶


And so you need to make the sound of wind and blow them away and read the rest of the book.

所以你需要弄出风的声音将它们吹走 然后读书下面的部分


We're moving, we're all moving here, to a world where the forces of nature come closer together to technology, and magic and technology can come closer together.

我们在移动，移动到这里 到一个自然的力量和科技变得越来越近 的一个世界， 魔法和科技可以走得更近


We're bringing our children and ourselves closer to the natural world and childhood love that we had through the simple medium of a story.

我们把我们的孩子和我们自己 和自然世界拉得更近 和我们 通过一个简单的传媒故事 带来魔法和愉快，以及孩童时候的爱


I would like to talk to you about why many e-health projects fail.

我想和大家谈谈 众多电子医疗保健项目失败的原因


And I really think that the most important thing of it is that we stopped listening to patients.

我想最重要的一点 是我们没有倾听病人的心声


And one of the things we did at Radboud University is we appointed a chief listening officer.

我们在荷兰内梅亨大学做的一件事 就是委任了一名首席倾听官


Not in a very scientific way -- she puts up a little cup of coffee or cup of tea and asks patients, family, relatives, "What's up?

不是以一种很科学的方式－ 她倒杯咖啡或者茶 问问病人，家庭，亲戚 “近来好啊？


有什么需要我们帮助的？”


And we think, we like to think, that this is one of the major problems but most of the e-health projects fail, since we stopped listening.

我想，我们愿意认为 这就是导致 几乎所有电子医疗保健项目失败的 主要原因之一 即我们没有倾听


This is my WiFi scale. It's a very simple thing.

这是我的WiFi体重测量仪 是个很简单的玩意


And yes, I've got a challenge, as you might see.

哈不错，我给自己定了个目标值 你可以看到的


我把体重目标值定为95kg


But the thing is that it's made this simple that whenever I hop on, it sends my data through Google Health as well.

事实上整个操作非常简单 我一坐上去 它就把我的数据发送到谷歌健康


And it's collected by my general practitioner as well, so he can see what's my problem in weight, not on the very moment that I need cardiologic support or something like it, but also looking backward.

同时我的全科医生也可以收到 然后他就能看看我的体重有什么问题 不是等到像心脏病发作 这样十万火急的时候才想到看体重 而是一路走来都会关注


As some of you might know, I've got more than 4,000 followers on Twitter.

你们有些人可能知道 我在推特上有四千多粉丝


So every morning I hop on my WiFi scale and before I'm in my car, people start talking to me, "I think you need a light lunch today, Lucien."

所以每天早上 我用WiFi体重测量仪称重 在我上车之前 人们就开始跟我说话了 “我想你今天午饭还是就简吧，吕西安”


But that's the nicest thing that could happen, since this is peer pressure, peer pressure used to help patients -- since this could be used for obesity, it could be used to stop smoking in patients.

但其实那再好不过了 因为这是同伴压力 同伴压力能帮助病人－ 它可以帮助治疗肥胖 可以帮助 戒烟


But on the other hand, it also could be used to get people from out of their chairs and try to work together in some kind of gaming activity to get more control of their health.

但是另外一方面，它也可以 把人们聚集到一起 参加一些类似游戏的活动 来更好地维护健康


As of next week, it will soon be available.

下一周这个功能就要上马了


There will be this little blood pressure meter connected to an iPhone or something or other.

届时会有一个像这样的小血压计 连接到智能手机或者其他设备上


And people will be able, from their homes, to take their blood pressure, send it into their doctor and eventually share it with others, for instance, for over a hundred dollars.

然后人们便可在家中 测量血压 之后把数据发给他们的医生 同时也可同其他人分享 只要一百美元


And this is the point where patients get into position and can collect, not only their own control again, be captain of their own ship, but also can help us in health care due to the challenges that we face, like health care cost explosion, doubled demand and things like that.

这就是关键之处，当患者各就各位 收集数据时，他们不仅能自我控制 亲自掌舵 还能帮助我们应付 医疗保健中面临的挑战 比如医疗费用剧增 或者需求成倍增加等等


Make techniques that are easy to use and start with this to embrace patients in the team.

我们要让技术便于掌控 以鼓励已步入轨道的病人


And you can do this with techniques like this, but also by crowd-sourcing.

你可以通过这样的技术来实现 也可以将任务分派给普通大众


And one of the things we did I would like to share with you introduced by a little video.

今天我将通过 一个短片来向各位展示我们做的一个项目


We've all got navigation controls in our car.


We maybe even [have] it in our cellphone.


We know perfectly where all the ATMs are about the city of Maastricht.

我们知道马斯特里赫特市 所有ATM的位置


The other thing is we know where all the gas stations are.


And sure, we could find fast food chains.


But where would be the nearest AED to help this patient?

但是最近的能拯救患者的 自动体外除颤器在哪儿？


Nobody knew where the nearest life-saving AED was to be obtained right now.

没人知道的能救命的自动体外除颤器 现在能找到了


So what we did, we crowdsourced The Netherlands.

我们将属于整个荷兰的任务派发给群众


We set up a website and asked the crowd, "If you see an AED, please submit it, tell us where it is, tell us when it's open," since sometimes in office hours sometimes it's closed, of course.

我们建了一个网站 告诉人们，“如果你看到一个自动体外除颤器 就请在网上标出它的位置 并备注开放时间” 备注是因为它不一定24小时都开放


And over 10,000 AEDs already in The Netherlands already have been submitted.

在荷兰已经有一万多个AED 被标注上了


The next step we took was to find the applications for it.

下一步就是开发相应的应用程序


我们开发了一个iPad应用


We made an application for Layar, augmented reality, to find these AEDs.

一个Layar的应用，扩增实境 来寻找AED


And whenever you are in a city like Maastricht and somebody collapses, you can use your iPhone, and within the next weeks also run your Microsoft cellphone, to find the nearest AED which can save lives.

如果你在马斯特里赫特市 看到有人倒下了 你可以用iPhone 几周之内微软手机也可以了 找到最近的AED 来拯救生命


And as of today, we would like to introduce this, not only as AED4EU, which is what the product is called, but also AED4US.

今天 我想介绍的，不仅仅是AED4U 这是那个产品的名字 还有aed4.us


And we would like to start this on a worldwide level.

我们打算将这项目推广到全世界


And [we're] asking all of our colleagues in the rest of the world, colleague universities, to help us to find and work and act like a hub to crowd-source all these AEDs all around the world.

在这里我们也呼吁世界各地的同事 和大学来帮我们 让我们万众一心 一起将世界各地的AED标识出来


That whenever you're on holiday and somebody collapses, might it be your own relative or someone just in front of you, you can find this.

这样当你假日外出看见有人昏倒了 也许是你的亲人或者只是路人 你就能找到AED


The other thing we would like to ask is of companies also all over the world that will be able to help us validate these AEDs.

在这里我们还想呼吁 世界上的各个公司 能帮我们验证这些AED


These might be courier services or cable guys for instance, just to see whether the AED that's submitted still is in place.

譬如，或许让快递员 或者电报员 去看看被标识的AED 是不是还在那个位置


So please help us on this one and try to make not only health a little bit better, but take control of it.

所以请在这一项目上帮助我们 让我们不仅更健康，并且能将其掌握，胸有成竹


今天我想在此跟大家分享一下我的摄影作品


或者说，这张也是摄影作品么？


Because, of course, this is a photograph that you can't take with your camera.

因为，这显然是一张照片 但却是你用相机拍不出来的


Yet, my interest in photography started as I got my first digital camera at the age of 15.

然而，我对摄影的兴趣 始于我拿到第一个数码相机后 那时候我15岁


It mixed with my earlier passion for drawing, but it was a bit different, because using the camera, the process was in the planning instead.

这里面夹杂了我之前对绘画的热爱 但是有一点不一样 因为使用照相机的时候 整个过程已经提前计划好了


And when you take a photograph with a camera, the process ends when you press the trigger.

当你拿起相机拍照 当你摁下快门的时候整个过程也就结束了


So to me it felt like photography was more about being at the right place and the right time.

所以在我看来摄影更注重 适当的拍摄地点和时间


我觉得任何人都可以做这件事


So I wanted to create something different, something where the process starts when you press the trigger.

所以我想做点特别的 特别之处就在于当你摁下快门时 整个过程才刚刚开始


Photos like this: construction going on along a busy road.

比如这张照片： 一条繁忙的公路旁边正在进行施工


（题材平凡，）但手法出人意料


And despite that, it retains a level of realism.

尽管如此 它仍然保留了一份现实主义感


Or photos like these -- both dark and colorful, but all with a common goal of retaining the level of realism.

或者像这样的照片 既有暗色也有彩色 但是其目的都是 为了保留一份现实主义感


When I say realism, I mean photo-realism.

我说的现实主义 指的是照片的现实主义


Because, of course, it's not something you can capture really, but I always want it to look like it could have been captured somehow as a photograph.

因为这的确 不是你可以真正抓住的东西 但是我总想让它看起来像是可以用某种方式 被抓拍下来一样


Photos where you will need a brief moment to think to figure out the trick.

这些照片需要你能够快速 找出它们背后的技巧


So it's more about capturing an idea than about capturing a moment really.

所以更注重的是捕捉一个灵感 而不是捕捉一个真实存在的瞬间


But what's the trick that makes it look realistic?

但是使这些照片看起来 很写实的技巧是什么呢？


Is it something about the details or the colors?

是关于细节？ 还是关于色彩？


Sometimes the perspective is the illusion.

有时候不同的视角造成不同的幻觉


But in the end, it comes down to how we interpret the world and how it can be realized on a two-dimensional surface.

但最终，还是要归结于我们如何理解这个世界 以及这种理解如何在一个二维空间得以体现


It's not really what is realistic, it's what we think looks realistic really.

这并不是关于什么是真的 而是关于我们认为什么看起来像是真的


所以我认为这些基本原理 其实很简单


I just see it as a puzzle of reality where you can take different pieces of reality and put it together to create alternate reality.

我把它看做是现实世界的一个拼图 在这里你可以把现实世界的不同片段拼凑起来 创造另一种真实


Here we have three perfectly imaginable physical objects, something we all can relate to living in a three-dimensional world.

这里有三个完全可想象到并真实存在的物体 我们可以在现实的三维世界里找到它们


But combined in a certain way, they can create something that still looks three-dimensional, like it could exist.

但若将这些物体用某种方式组合起来 就可以创造出视觉上依然是三维的物体 就好像它是会存在的


但是同时我们很清楚它不可能存在


So we trick our brains, because our brain simply doesn't accept the fact that it doesn't really make sense.

就这样我们骗了自己的大脑 因为大脑就是不肯接受 这个物体其实并不存在这一事实


It's just really about combining different realities.

也是如此 确实只是把不同的现实画面组合起来


So the things that make a photograph look realistic, I think it's the things that we don't even think about, the things all around us in our daily lives.

所以使一张照片看起来逼真的事物 是那些我们平时甚至不会去想 但在日常生活中随处可见的东西


But when combining photographs, this is really important to consider, because otherwise it just looks wrong somehow.

但是当我们组合照片的时候 这点就值得我们着重思考了 否则它看起来就会别扭


So I would like to say that there are three simple rules to follow to achieve a realistic result.

我想说的是我们要遵守三个简单的原则 为了达到一个逼真的效果


As you can see, these images aren't really special.

你们看，这些图像并不特别


But combined, they can create something like this.

但是组合起来，它们就可以创造出这样的画面


So the first rule is that photos combined should have the same perspective.

所以第一原则就是所有被组合的照片 都展现同样的视角


Secondly, photos combined should have the same type of light.

第二，被组合的照片 还要有相同的光线


And these two images both fulfill these two requirements -- shot at the same height and in the same type of light.

这两张照片都符合这两样要求 它们都摄于相同的拍摄高度和相同的光线下


The third one is about making it impossible to distinguish where the different images begin and end by making it seamless.

第三个原则是要让人难以分辨 这些不同照片的衔接点 使衔接看起来天衣无缝


Make it impossible to say how the image actually was composed.

使任何人都道不出 这图片是如何创作而成的


So by matching color, contrast and brightness in the borders between the different images, adding photographic defects like depth of field, desaturated colors and noise, we erase the borders between the different images and make it look like one single image, despite the fact that one image can contain hundreds of layers basically.

通过匹配不同照片边缘的 色彩，对比度以及亮度 再加入一下摄影瑕疵 比如视野的深度 去饱和的色彩和噪音 我们可以除去不同照片之间的边界 使其看起来就像是一张单一的照片 即使一张照片 可包含上百个图层


One might think that this is just an image of a landscape and the lower part is what's manipulated.

有人可能认为这只是一张风景图 下面的部分是处理过的


But this image is actually entirely composed of photographs from different locations.

但是这张照片其实整个都是 由不同地方拍摄的很多照片组合起来的


I personally think that it's easier to actually create a place than to find a place, because then you don't need to compromise with the ideas in your head.

我个人认为创造一个地方比找到一个地方 要容易一些 因为你不用 与自己大脑的想法妥协


And getting this idea during winter, I knew that I had several months to plan it, to find the different locations for the pieces of the puzzle basically.

去年冬天产生这个想法时 我知道我有几个月的时间去规划这件事 基本上要到不同的地点 找这一拼图所需的图片


So for example, the fish was captured on a fishing trip.

比如 这条鱼摄于一次垂钓航行


The shores are from a different location.


The underwater part was captured in a stone pit.

水下的部分摄于一个采石场


And yeah, I even turned the house on top of the island red to make it look more Swedish.

对了，我还把岛上的房子调成红色的了 使它看起来更具瑞典风


So to achieve a realistic result, I think it comes down to planning.

为了达到一个逼真的效果 我认为最重要的就是规划


It always starts with a sketch, an idea.

总是会先出现一个大概的构思和想法


Then it's about combining the different photographs.


And here every piece is very well planned.

这里每一个图片都是经过仔细规划的


And if you do a good job capturing the photos, the result can be quite beautiful and also quite realistic.

如果你能抓拍到很好的照片， 效果会很美。 而且也很逼真


So all the tools are out there, and the only thing that limits us is our imagination.

所以其实所有的工具都在那 唯一限制我们的 是我们的想象力


Because I usually take the role of trying to explain to people how wonderful the new technologies that are coming along are going to be, and I thought that, since I was among friends here, I would tell you what I really think and try to look back and try to understand what is really going on here with these amazing jumps in technology that seem so fast that we can barely keep on top of it.

由于我经常 向人们解释 即将到来的新科技 将会多么的美妙 我想既然我跟各位朋友们一起在这 就让我来说说我真正的想法 并试着回顾和理解 这到底是如何发生的 有了这些科技上的惊人进步。 科技的进步似乎快到我们根本无法赶上它的脚步。


So I'm going to start out by showing just one very boring technology slide.

让我先从这开始 一页很无趣的科技幻灯片。


And then, so if you can just turn on the slide that's on.

然后可以开始放幻灯片了。


This is just a random slide that I picked out of my file.

这只是我从我的文件中 随机挑选出的一张。


What I want to show you is not so much the details of the slide, but the general form of it.

我想要你们看的并不是它的细节， 而是它的总体形式。


This happens to be a slide of some analysis that we were doing about the power of RISC microprocessors versus the power of local area networks.

这个是我们做的 关于RISC精简指令集微处理器功率 与本地网路功率分析的幻灯片。


And the interesting thing about it is that this slide, like so many technology slides that we're used to, is a sort of a straight line on a semi-log curve.

有趣的是 这页幻灯片 就像很多我们所熟悉的幻灯片一样， 是半对数曲线图 上的一条直线。


In other words, every step here represents an order of magnitude in performance scale.

也就是这里的每一层， 代表了性能程度 大小的一级。


And this is a new thing that we talk about technology on semi-log curves.

在半对数曲线图上 讨论科技， 这很新鲜。


Something really weird is going on here.


And that's basically what I'm going to be talking about.

这基本上是我接下来要说的。


If you could bring up the lights higher, because I'm just going to use a piece of paper here.

请把灯开亮点， 因为我要用张纸。


Now why do we draw technology curves in semi-log curves?

为什么我们要用对数曲线 描绘科技曲线呢？


Well the answer is, if I drew it on a normal curve where, let's say, this is years, this is time of some sort, and this is whatever measure of the technology that I'm trying to graph, the graphs look sort of silly.

嗯，答案是，如果我用普通曲线画， 我们说，这是年份， 这是某个时间， 这是我准备画的 科技的某种测量值， 这图看起来有点傻。


而且并没有提供什么资讯。


Now if I graph, for instance, some other technology, say transportation technology, on a semi-log curve, it would look very stupid, it would look like a flat line.

现在，如果我画，比如说， 另一种技术，像是交通运输， 在半对数曲线上， 它看起来很蠢，会像条很平的线。


But when something like this happens, things are qualitatively changing.

但是如果出现像这种 质变的情况。


So if transportation technology was moving along as fast as microprocessor technology, then the day after tomorrow, I would be able to get in a taxi cab and be in Tokyo in 30 seconds.

如果交通运输技术 进步地像微处理器技术一样快的话， 那，后天 我就能搭一辆出租车 然后在30秒内到东京。


It's not moving like that. And there's nothing precedented in the history of technology development of this kind of self-feeding growth where you go by orders of magnitude every few years.

但它并没有进步得那么快。 在科技发展历史中 也没有任何 这种自给自足， 每几年程度翻倍增长的先例。


Now the question that I'd like to ask is, if you look at these exponential curves, they don't go on forever.

现在我想要问的是， 如果你观察这些指数曲线， 它们并非永远的持续下去。


Things just can't possibly keep changing as fast as they are.

事物不可能一直 改变得那么快。


Either it's going to turn into a sort of classical S-curve like this, until something totally different comes along, or maybe it's going to do this.

要么它会变成像这样典型的S曲线 直到完全不同的情况出现。 或是会变成这样。


Now I'm an optimist, so I sort of think it's probably going to do something like that.

现在我是个乐观主义者， 所以我觉得它很有可能就会变成这样。


If so, that means that what we're in the middle of right now is a transition.

如果是这样，意味着我们目前所在的 是过渡阶段。


We're sort of on this line in a transition from the way the world used to be to some new way that the world is.

我们似乎在这条线上， 在世界从过去 到将来的转变中。


And so what I'm trying to ask, what I've been asking myself, is what's this new way that the world is?

所有我要问的，我一直在问自己的， 就是这世界未来道路在哪？


What's that new state that the world is heading toward?

它趋向的新时代是什么样的？


Because the transition seems very, very confusing when we're right in the middle of it.

由于这个变化似乎非常，非常迷惑人， 当我们正处于其中时。


Now when I was a kid growing up, the future was kind of the year 2000, and people used to talk about what would happen in the year 2000.

我小时候，在长大过程中 未来就像是2000年， 人们都在讨论2000年将会发生什么。


Now here's a conference in which people talk about the future, and you notice that the future is still at about the year 2000.

现在这个会议上， 大家在讨论未来， 而且你能发现这未来指的还是那个“2000年”。


这就是我们能达到的程度。


So in other words, the future has kind of been shrinking one year per year for my whole lifetime.

换句话说，在我一生中 未来正在 逐年缩短。


Now I think that the reason is because we all feel that something's happening there.

我想原因是 我们都感觉到 正在发生些什么。


That transition is happening. We can all sense it.

变化正在发生。我们都能察觉到。


And we know that it just doesn't make too much sense to think out 30, 50 years because everything's going to be so different that a simple extrapolation of what we're doing just doesn't make any sense at all.

我们知道去考虑那未来的三、五十年 已经没什么意义了， 因为每件事都将如此不同 以至于推测将来 不再有意义。


So what I would like to talk about is what that could be, what that transition could be that we're going through.

所以我要聊聊 那会是怎样， 我们正在经历的转变会是怎样。


Now in order to do that I'm going to have to talk about a bunch of stuff that really has nothing to do with technology and computers.

为达到这个目的， 我得介绍一堆东西 它们与 科技和电脑完全无关。


Because I think the only way to understand this is to really step back and take a long time scale look at things.

因为我决定理解这个的唯一方法 就是回顾过去 拉长时间轴去看。


So the time scale that I would like to look at this on is the time scale of life on Earth.

而我所要看的时间轴 是以地球上生命的时间跨度来看。


So I think this picture makes sense if you look at it a few billion years at a time.

我想这幅图合理了 如果你每次从几十亿年跨度来看。


So if you go back about two and a half billion years, the Earth was this big, sterile hunk of rock with a lot of chemicals floating around on it.

所以如果你回溯个 大概25亿年， 地球这么大，贫瘠的大块石头 上面浮着些化学物质。


And if you look at the way that the chemicals got organized, we begin to get a pretty good idea of how they do it.

要是观察 这些化学物质怎样组合的， 我们开始弄明白它们怎么形成的。


And I think that there's theories that are beginning to understand about how it started with RNA, but I'm going to tell a sort of simple story of it, which is that, at that time, there were little drops of oil floating around with all kinds of different recipes of chemicals in them.

我想有些理论是从理解 生命怎样从核糖核酸演变开始， 但是我想讲一个生命的简单故事， 就是，在那个时候， 有一滴滴的油四处浮动， 里面有各种不同化学成分组合。


And some of those drops of oil had a particular combination of chemicals in them which caused them to incorporate chemicals from the outside and grow the drops of oil.

有些油滴 里面含有特殊的化学构成 这导致它们可以从外界聚集化学物质 并慢慢变大。


And those that were like that started to split and divide.

像这样的油滴 又开始分化，分离。


And those were the most primitive forms of cells in a sense, those little drops of oil.

最原始的那些在某种程度上形成了细胞， 这些小小的油滴。


But now those drops of oil weren't really alive, as we say it now, because every one of them was a little random recipe of chemicals.

但目前为止这些油滴不是真正活着的，在我们现在看来， 因为每一个 都是化学物质的随机合成。


And every time it divided, they got sort of unequal division of the chemicals within them.

每分裂一次， 都不是平均分布 内部的化学物。


And so every drop was a little bit different.

所以每个油滴都有点不同。


In fact, the drops that were different in a way that caused them to be better at incorporating chemicals around them, grew more and incorporated more chemicals and divided more.

实际上，油滴不同的方式 是让它们能更好地 集成周围的化合物， 长得更大，吸收更多，分裂更多。


So those tended to live longer, get expressed more.

所以它们会活得更长， 表现得更多。


Now that's sort of just a very simple chemical form of life, but when things got interesting was when these drops learned a trick about abstraction.

这就有点像个很简单的 生命的化学形式， 但过程变得有趣 是当这些油滴 学会了一个提供资讯的技巧时。


Somehow by ways that we don't quite understand, these little drops learned to write down information.

不知怎么用我们不能完全理解的方式， 这些小油滴学会了记录资讯。


They learned to record the information that was the recipe of the cell onto a particular kind of chemical called DNA.

它们学会把 细胞形成的秘诀 记录到一种特殊物质上， 叫做去氧核糖核酸。


So in other words, they worked out, in this mindless sort of evolutionary way, a form of writing that let them write down what they were, so that that way of writing it down could get copied.

也就是说，它们想出了， 以这种随性的进化方式， 可以写下它们基因信息的记录方式， 以便这种记录方式能被复制。


The amazing thing is that that way of writing seems to have stayed steady since it evolved two and a half billion years ago.

惊奇的是这种记录方式 似乎可以保持稳定 由于它25亿年前演化出来的。


In fact the recipe for us, our genes, is exactly that same code and that same way of writing.

实际上我们，我们基因的组成 就是完全一样的代码，一样的记录方式。


In fact, every living creature is written in exactly the same set of letters and the same code.

实际上，任何生物都是 用完全一样的字母和代码记录下来的。


In fact, one of the things that I did just for amusement purposes is we can now write things in this code.

实际上，我所做的 仅是为了娱乐效果的一件事 就是我们能用这个代码记录事件。


And I've got here a little 100 micrograms of white powder, which I try not to let the security people see at airports.

我这有100微克的白粉， 我尽力不让机场安检人员发现它们。


But this has in it -- what I did is I took this code -- the code has standard letters that we use for symbolizing it -- and I wrote my business card onto a piece of DNA and amplified it 10 to the 22 times.

不过这里面有代码 我所做的是我拿着这代码 它里面有我们用来标记它的标准字母， 然后我把我的名片写到一条去氧核糖核酸上 再放大10到22倍。


So if anyone would like a hundred million copies of my business card, I have plenty for everyone in the room, and, in fact, everyone in the world, and it's right here.

所以如果有人需要数百万份我的名片， 我有足够多份给在座每个人， 甚至是全世界每个人， 就在这。


If I had really been a egotist, I would have put it into a virus and released it in the room.

要是我是个自大的人， 我就会把它放到病毒里散布到屋子中。


Writing down the DNA was an interesting step.

记录去氧核糖核酸是有趣的一步。


And that caused these cells -- that kept them happy for another billion years.

它导致了细胞的形成—— 让它们又高兴了几十亿年。


But then there was another really interesting step where things became completely different, which is these cells started exchanging and communicating information, so that they began to get communities of cells.

不过还有个很有趣的环节 事情开始变得完全不同， 那就是这些细胞开始交换和交流资讯， 从而形成细胞团体。


I don't know if you know this, but bacteria can actually exchange DNA.

我不知道你们是否知道这个， 细菌实际上就可以交换去氧核糖核酸。


Now that's why, for instance, antibiotic resistance has evolved.

这就是为什么，比如， 演变出抗菌免疫。


Some bacteria figured out how to stay away from penicillin, and it went around sort of creating its little DNA information with other bacteria, and now we have a lot of bacteria that are resistant to penicillin, because bacteria communicate.

有些细菌知道怎么远离青霉素， 然后它创造它这点去氧核糖核酸资讯， 并在别的细菌中到处游走， 现在我们有很多对青霉素免疫的细菌了， 因为细菌会交流资讯。


Now what this communication allowed was communities to form that, in some sense, were in the same boat together; they were synergistic.

这样，这些交流致使 群落的形成， 在某种意义上，它们在同一条船上了； 它们是协作的。


So they survived or they failed together, which means that if a community was very successful, all the individuals in that community were repeated more and they were favored by evolution.

因此它们一起幸存下来 或者一起死去， 也就是说如果一个群落成功了， 所有群落里的个体 都能复制更多， 进化得更有利。


Now the transition point happened when these communities got so close that, in fact, they got together and decided to write down the whole recipe for the community together on one string of DNA.

于是，转换点到了， 当这些族群很亲近时， 事实上，它们聚集到一起 并决定在一条去氧核糖核酸上 写下整个族群的成分谱。


And so the next stage that's interesting in life took about another billion years.

生命中下一个有趣的阶段 又要几十亿年。


And at that stage, we have multi-cellular communities, communities of lots of different types of cells, working together as a single organism.

在这个时期， 有多细胞族群， 就是有很多种不同细胞的群落， 作为有机体一起合作。


And in fact, we're such a multi-cellular community.

实际上，我们就是这样的多细胞族群。


We have lots of cells that are not out for themselves anymore.

我们有很多细胞， 它们不再是只为自己存活。


Your skin cell is really useless without a heart cell, muscle cell, a brain cell and so on.

皮肤细胞根本没用， 要是没有心脏细胞，肌肉细胞， 脑细胞等等。


So these communities began to evolve so that the interesting level on which evolution was taking place was no longer a cell, but a community which we call an organism.

所以这些族群开始进化 这样发生有趣的进化的 不再仅仅是单一细胞。 而是我们称为有机体的族群。


Now the next step that happened is within these communities.

接下来发生 就是在这些族群中。


These communities of cells, again, began to abstract information.

这些细胞群落， 再次，开始提取资讯。


And they began building very special structures that did nothing but process information within the community.

它们开始构建非常特别的 专门处理群落内资讯的结构。


So neurons are the information processing apparatus that those communities of cells built up.

所以神经元是 这些细胞群建立的资讯处理仪器。


And in fact, they began to get specialists in the community and special structures that were responsible for recording, understanding, learning information.

实际上，群落里开始出现专家 以及特殊结构 负责记录， 理解，学习资讯。


And that was the brains and the nervous system And that gave them an evolutionary advantage.

这就是这些细胞群的 大脑和神经系统。 这给了它们进化的有利条件。


Because at that point, an individual -- learning could happen within the time span of a single organism, instead of over this evolutionary time span.

因为这样的话， 对每个个体—— 学习可以发生 在单个有机体的时间跨度内， 而不是整个进化时间跨度。


So an organism could, for instance, learn not to eat a certain kind of fruit because it tasted bad and it got sick last time it ate it.

所以一个有机体能够，比如说， 学会不吃某种水果 因为它不好吃而且上次吃的觉得恶心。


That could happen within the lifetime of a single organism, whereas before they'd built these special information processing structures, that would have had to be learned evolutionarily over hundreds of thousands of years by the individuals dying off that ate that kind of fruit.

这可以发生在一个单个有机体的一生中， 然后在这种特殊信息处理结构建成前， 这得要进化学习 千万年， 通过吃了这种水果前仆后继死去的个体。


So that nervous system, the fact that they built these special information structures, tremendously sped up the whole process of evolution.

所以神经系统， 生物组建这种特殊结构的事实， 极大地加速了进化的进程。


Because evolution could now happen within an individual.

因为至此进化可以在个体中发生了。


It could happen in learning time scales.

它能发生在学习的时间跨度内。


But then what happened was the individuals worked out, of course, tricks of communicating.

但是接下来发生的 是每个个体发现了， 当然，交流的秘诀。


And for example, the most sophisticated version that we're aware of is human language.

比如说， 我们所知道的最精密的版本就是人类语言。


It's really a pretty amazing invention if you think about it.

想想看，这真是个奇妙的发明。


Here I have a very complicated, messy, confused idea in my head.

我脑子里有个很复杂，混乱， 疑惑的想法。


I'm sitting here making grunting sounds basically, and hopefully constructing a similar messy, confused idea in your head that bears some analogy to it.

我坐在这，基本上就是吐字发声， 希望在你们头脑里建立一个类似的混乱 跟它有点类似的想法。


But we're taking something very complicated, turning it into sound, sequences of sounds, and producing something very complicated in your brain.

但是我们正在把很复杂的东西 转化成声音，一连串的声音， 并在你们大脑产生很复杂的东西。


So this allows us now to begin to start functioning as a single organism.

所以现在这推动我们 开始运作 作为单个有机体。


And so, in fact, what we've done is we, humanity, have started abstracting out.

所以，实际上，我们已经完成的 就是我们，人类， 开始抽离出来。


We're going through the same levels that multi-cellular organisms have gone through -- abstracting out our methods of recording, presenting, processing information.

我们正在经历多细胞有机体经历的 相同的阶段—— 提取我们记录， 展示，处理资讯的方式。


So for example, the invention of language was a tiny step in that direction.

比如说，语言的发明 就是这个方向上很小一步。


Telephony, computers, videotapes, CD-ROMs and so on are all our specialized mechanisms that we've now built within our society for handling that information.

电话，电脑， 影碟，光碟等等 都是我们的特殊机制， 我们正在社会里构建 用来处理资讯的机制。


And it all connects us together into something that is much bigger and much faster and able to evolve So now, evolution can take place on a scale of microseconds.

这些都是把我们联系在一起， 变的 比我们之前 更大， 更快， 更有能力进化。 所以，现在进化可以发生在 微妙的时间跨度级上。


And you saw Ty's little evolutionary example where he sort of did a little bit of evolution on the Convolution program right before your eyes.

你们看过泰伊的那个进化的小例子 它好像就在你们眼前的卷积程式上 展现了一点进化了。


So now we've speeded up the time scales once again.

所以现在我们再次加快时间跨度。


So the first steps of the story that I told you about took a billion years a piece.

我讲的故事的第一步 每一步花费了几十亿年。


And the next steps, like nervous systems and brains, took a few hundred million years.

下一步， 像神经系统和大脑， 消耗几百万年。


Then the next steps, like language and so on, took less than a million years.

再接下来，像语言等等， 需要不到一百万年。


And these next steps, like electronics, seem to be taking only a few decades.

再下一步，像电子器件， 仿佛只要几十年。


The process is feeding on itself and becoming, I guess, autocatalytic is the word for it -- when something reinforces its rate of change.

这个过程是自给自足， 并且变成，我猜，应该自我催化描述更合适—— 当事物加快改变的速度。


The more it changes, the faster it changes.


And I think that that's what we're seeing here in this explosion of curve.

我想这就是我们在这看到的激增曲线。


We're seeing this process feeding back on itself.

我们看到这个过程回馈到自己。


Now I design computers for a living, and I know that the mechanisms that I use to design computers would be impossible without recent advances in computers.

我现在工作就是自己设计电脑， 我知道用来设计电脑的 这些机制 不可能存在， 要是没有近期电脑的进步。


So right now, what I do is I design objects at such complexity that it's really impossible for me to design them in the traditional sense.

现在，我做的 是设计复杂到 不可能从传统意义上设计的物体。


I don't know what every transistor in the connection machine does.

我不知道连接机器上每个电晶体的作用。


Instead, what I do and what the designers at Thinking Machines do is we think at some level of abstraction and then we hand it to the machine and the machine takes it beyond what we could ever do, much farther and faster than we could ever do.

实际上，我所做的 思考机器的设计师们做的， 我们认为是为某种程度的资讯抽取， 然后把它传给机器 而机器把它运用到超出我们所能做的范围， 而且比我们从前所做的更深远更快。


And in fact, sometimes it takes it by methods that we don't quite even understand.

实际上，有时候它采用的方法 我们并不很懂。


One method that's particularly interesting that I've been using a lot lately is evolution itself.

有个尤其有趣 我最近一直在用的 就是进化本身。


So what we do is we put inside the machine a process of evolution that takes place on the microsecond time scale.

我们做的就是 在机器里 放入一个进化进程， 这个进程在微妙时间跨度上就能发生。


So for example, in the most extreme cases, we can actually evolve a program by starting out with random sequences of instructions.

比如， 大部分极端情况下， 我们实际上能 通过从随机的指令序列开始进化一个程式。


Say, "Computer, would you please make a hundred million random sequences of instructions.

说“电脑，请你产生 一亿随机指令序列。


Now would you please run all of those random sequences of instructions, run all of those programs, and pick out the ones that came closest to doing what I wanted."

现在请你运行所有这些随机指令列， 运行所有程式， 并选出最接近我想要的。”


So in other words, I define what I wanted.

也就是说，我定义我要什么。


Let's say I want to sort numbers, as a simple example I've done it with.

假设我需要分类资料， 这是个我用它试验过的简单例子。


So find the programs that come closest to sorting numbers.

找到最接近资料分类的程式。


So of course, random sequences of instructions are very unlikely to sort numbers, so none of them will really do it.

当然，随机的指令序列 非常不可能分类资料， 所以它们中没有一个能完成。


But one of them, by luck, may put two numbers in the right order.

但是中间有一个，运气很好， 可能会把两个数按顺序排列。


And I say, "Computer, would you please now take the 10 percent of those random sequences that did the best job.

我说，“电脑， 请你现在选出序列中百分之十 完成得最好的。


And now let's reproduce the ones that sorted numbers the best.

现在来复制 资料分类得最好的这些。


And let's reproduce them by a process of recombination analogous to sex."

以类似交配的重组过程 来复制它们。


Take two programs and they produce children by exchanging their subroutines, and the children inherit the traits of the subroutines of the two programs.

取两个程式 交换它们的副程式让它们产生子女， 这些子女继承了两个程式副程式的特征。


So I've got now a new generation of programs that are produced by combinations of the programs that did a little bit better job.

所以我得到新一代的 由组合做的比较好的程式 而产生的程式。


说，“请重复这个过程。”


And try that again and do that for another generation.

再试一次并用在新的一代上。


Well every one of those generations just takes a few milliseconds.

这一代上每个程式只需要几毫秒。


So I can do the equivalent of millions of years of evolution on that or in the complicated cases, in a few hours.

所以我在电脑上用几分钟 能做等同于 几百万年的进化过程， 或者，情况复杂时，在几小时内完成。


At the end of that, I end up with programs that are absolutely perfect at sorting numbers.

结束时，我得到 绝对完美的分类资料的程式。


In fact, they are programs that are much more efficient than programs I could have ever written by hand.

实际上，这些程式比我手写的 任何程式都要有效率。


Now if I look at those programs, I can't tell you how they work.

现在，如果我读这些程式， 我说不出它们怎么工作的。


I've tried looking at them and telling you how they work.

我尝试过阅读并且解释它们如何工作的。


And in fact, I know, I'm very confident that they do the job because they come from a line of hundreds of thousands of programs that did the job.

实际上，我知道，我很有信心，它们能完成任务 因为它们来自于一行 上千万能完成认为的程式。


In fact, their life depended on doing the job.

事实上，它们的生命就是靠着这工作。


I was riding in a 747 with Marvin Minsky once, and he pulls out this card and says, "Oh look. Look at this.

我曾经有一次 和马文·明斯基一起坐747， 他拿出一张卡，说，“看，看这。


It says, 'This plane has hundreds of thousands of tiny parts working together to make you a safe flight.' Doesn't that make you feel confident?"

这上面说，‘本飞机有很多精密部件 协作，保障你飞行安全。’ 这是不是让你很有信心？”


In fact, we know that the engineering process doesn't work very well when it gets complicated.

事实上，我们知道工程过程复杂化 并不能很好工作。


So we're beginning to depend on computers to do a process that's very different than engineering.

所以我们开始依赖电脑 来做与工程有很大不同的一个过程。


And it lets us produce things of much more complexity than normal engineering lets us produce.

它能让我们生产出 比普通工程能生产的更复杂的东西。


And yet, we don't quite understand the options of it.

然而，我们还不明白它的选择。


So in a sense, it's getting ahead of us.

从某种意义上说，电脑比我们超前。


We're now using those programs to make much faster computers so that we'll be able to run this process much faster.

我们现在正用这些程式 创造更快的电脑 以便能更快地运行这个进程。


The thing is becoming faster and that's why I think it seems so confusing.

这正变得更快， 这也是为什么我觉得电脑似乎很让人摸不清。


Because all of these technologies are feeding back on themselves.

由于所有这些技术都回馈给自己。


And what we are is we're at a point in time which is analogous to when single-celled organisms were turning into multi-celled organisms.

我们正是在时间的某一点， 这一点类似于单细胞有机体 正转变成多细胞机体的时刻。


So we're the amoebas and we can't quite figure out what the hell this thing is we're creating.

我们就像变形虫。 搞不清自己正在创造的是什么东西。


We're right at that point of transition.


But I think that there really is something coming along after us.

不过我认为一定有跟随着我们的东西。


I think it's very haughty of us to think that we're the end product of evolution.

我想它是很崇拜我们的， 认为我们是进化的终极产物。


And I think all of us here are a part of producing whatever that next thing is.

我认为我们这所有人 都是繁衍的一部分， 无论下一步是什么。


So lunch is coming along, and I think I will stop at that point, before I get selected out.

午饭时间快到了， 趁我还没被选走， 我想我就在这里结束。


I think we have to do something about a piece of the culture of medicine that has to change.

我觉得在当今的医学文化中， 有一部份文化必须要开始改变。


And I think it starts with one physician, and that's me.

而这个改变可以从一个医生开始，那就是我。


And maybe I've been around long enough that I can afford to give away some of my false prestige to be able to do that.

或许是因为我已经行医多年， 我可以承受放弃一些虚无的名利 来开始这样的改变。


Before I actually begin the meat of my talk, let's begin with a bit of baseball.

在进入主题之前， 让我们先谈谈棒球吧。


We're near the end, we're getting close to the World Series.

常规赛季就快结束，世界职业棒球大赛即将开始。


我们都喜爱棒球，不是吗？


Baseball is filled with some amazing statistics.

棒球的世界中充斥着成千上百种


"Moneyball" is about to come out, and it's all about statistics and using statistics to build a great baseball team.

即将上映的电影 “点球成金”，便是完全关于统计数据， 以及如何在这些数据的基础上建造一个伟大的球队。


I'm going to focus on one stat that I hope a lot of you have heard of.

我想讲一个 我希望大家都听说过的数据，


So we talk about a 300, a batter who bats 300.

当我们说一名挥棒球员的击球率为三成的时候，


That means that ballplayer batted safely, hit safely three times out of 10 at bats.

我们是指这位球员的打击非常稳定， 每十次种就会有三次安打。


That means hit the ball into the outfield, it dropped, it didn't get caught, and whoever tried to throw it to first base didn't get there in time and the runner was safe.

安打意味着球会被击中并被打入外野， 而且并不会被立刻接杀， 球也不会在跑者成功上到一垒之前 被及时的传回。


Do you know what they call a 300 hitter in Major League Baseball?

各位知道棒球大联盟如何评论 这些击球率上了三成的球员吗？


很棒，非常棒， 明星球员一般的棒。


Do you know what they call a 400 baseball hitter?

各位知道他们又是如何称呼一位 击球率有着四成，


That's somebody who hit, by the way, four times safely out of every 10.

也就是每十次打击 就会打出四个安打的球员吗。


Legendary -- as in Ted Williams legendary -- the last Major League Baseball player to hit over 400 during a regular season.

是传奇 -- 像泰德. 威廉斯那样的传奇-- 他是棒球大联盟里最后一个在常规赛中 拥有超过四成击球率的球员。


Now let's take this back into my world of medicine where I'm a lot more comfortable, or perhaps a bit less comfortable after what I'm going to talk to you about.

现在让我们回到我的世界 - 医疗领域。 这个领域我比较熟悉， 但我接下来要说的 却让我有些困扰。


Suppose you have appendicitis and you're referred to a surgeon who's batting 400 on appendectomies.

假设你得了阑尾炎， 然后你被推荐给了一位 在阑尾移除手术中有着四成“击球率”的外科医生。


Now suppose you live in a certain part of a certain remote place and you have a loved one who has blockages in two coronary arteries and your family doctor refers that loved one to a cardiologist who's batting 200 on angioplasties.

又假设你住在 某一个较为偏远的地区， 而你所爱的人的 两条冠状动脉都被堵塞。 你的家庭医生将她推荐给了一位在血管成形手术上 有着两成“击球率”的心脏科医师。


She's doing a lot better this year. She's on the comeback trail.

她今年的表现有着很大的提高，她的水准也在恢复。


她的“击球率”达到了两成五。


但是这样还是不能被接受。


而我现在想问各位一个问题。


What do you think a batting average for a cardiac surgeon or a nurse practitioner or an orthopedic surgeon, an OBGYN, a paramedic is supposed to be?

你们认为， 一位心脏外科医生，或一位职业护理师， 一位骨科外科医生 妇产科医生或急救人员的 “击球率” 应该是多少？


Now truth of the matter is, nobody knows in all of medicine what a good surgeon or physician or paramedic is supposed to bat.

事实上， 医学界中没有人知道 一个好的外科医生， 医师或急救人员 应该有多少的 “击球率”。


What we do though is we send each one of them, including myself, out into the world with the admonition, be perfect.

我们将他们每个人，包括我自己， 送上职业岗位后 便告诫他们以完美来要求自己 --


Never ever, ever make a mistake, but you worry about the details, about how that's going to happen.

绝对，绝对不能作出错误的诊断 -- 但我们让他们自己考虑细节，考虑如何达到这样的标准。


And that was the message that I absorbed when I was in med school.

这就是我在医学院时 得到的信息。


我是一个有着强迫症倾向的学生。


In high school, a classmate once said that Brian Goldman would study for a blood test.

在中学时，有个同学曾经说 布莱恩.高德曼会为了血液测验复习。


And I studied in my little garret at the nurses' residence at Toronto General Hospital, not far from here.

我在离这不远处的多伦多总医院里 护士住宅里的一个小阁楼中， 完成了我的学业。


I memorized in my anatomy class the origins and exertions of every muscle, every branch of every artery that came off the aorta, differential diagnoses obscure and common.

我背下了解剖课中 提到的每一块肌肉的起端和伸展方式， 每一条从主动脉延伸出来的动脉的分支系统， 以及一切鲜为人知的或者常见的鉴别诊断。


I even knew the differential diagnosis in how to classify renal tubular acidosis.

我甚至知道如何鉴别诊断 不同的肾小管性酸中毒症。


And all the while, I was amassing more and more knowledge.

在这段时间中， 我积累了越来越多的知识。


And I did well, I graduated with honors, And I came out of medical school with the impression that if I memorized everything and knew everything, or as much as possible, as close to everything as possible, that it would immunize me against making mistakes.

我的表现很好， 并以优等的成绩毕业。 当我从医学院出来时， 我觉得 我只要记下和明白了所有的东西 – 或者稍退一步 – 将近所有的东西， 那我犯医疗错误的几率就会微乎其微。


而我在一段时间之内 的确没有犯错。 直到我遇到了 Drucker 女士。


I was a resident at a teaching hospital here in Toronto when Mrs. Drucker was brought to the emergency department of the hospital where I was working.

Drucker 女士被带入多伦多的 一家教学医院的急诊室时， 我正作为一个实习医生在那里工作。


At the time I was assigned to the cardiology service on a cardiology rotation.

当时我正因心脏科轮调 而被指派在心血管诊所。


And it was my job, when the emergency staff called for a cardiology consult, to see that patient in emerg.

我的工作是， 当紧急救护人员需要有关于心脏的专业会诊时， 在急症室诊断病人，


并在之后向负责我的主治医生汇报。


And I saw Mrs. Drucker, and she was breathless.

当我见到Drucker女士的时候，她的气息已经很微弱。


And when I listened to her, she was making a wheezy sound.

在我与她交谈时，我听到她的呼吸有喘息的声音。


And when I listened to her chest with a stethoscope, I could hear crackly sounds on both sides that told me that she was in congestive heart failure.

当我用听诊器聆听她的胸腔时， 两边都传来的爆裂的声音告诉我， 这是郁血性心脏衰竭。


This is a condition in which the heart fails, and instead of being able to pump all the blood forward, some of the blood backs up into the lung, the lungs fill up with blood, and that's why you have shortness of breath.

这是由于心脏在衰竭后， 无法将所有的血液完全的输送出去， 而导致部分血液回流入肺脏。肺脏里充满了血液， 而造成呼吸短促。


And that wasn't a difficult diagnosis to make.


I made it and I set to work treating her.

作出诊断后我开始着手帮她治疗。


I gave her aspirin. I gave her medications to relieve the strain on her heart.

我开给了她阿司匹林，并给了她一些可以减轻她心脏负担的药物。


I gave her medications that we call diuretics, water pills, to get her to pee out the access fluid.

我还给了她一些利尿剂，俗称水丸， 帮助她将体内多余的水分排出。


And over the course of the next hour and a half or two, she started to feel better.

在接下来的一两个小时里， 她开始觉得好转，


And that's when I made my first mistake; I sent her home.

而就在此时我犯了第一个错误： 我让她回了家。


正确的来说，我还犯了两个错误。


I sent her home without speaking to my attending.

我在和我的主治汇报之前 便让她回了家。


I didn't pick up the phone and do what I was supposed to do, which was call my attending and run the story by him so he would have a chance to see her for himself.

我没有做我照着我应该做的， 拿起电话打给我的主治并让他看一下这个案例， 给他一个亲自见见这名病患的机会。


And he knew her, he would have been able to furnish additional information about her.

我的主治认识她， 因此可以提供更详细的病历资料。


Maybe I didn't want to be a high-maintenance resident.

或许我并不想做一个需要经常地指导的实习医生。


Maybe I wanted to be so successful and so able to take responsibility that I would do so and I would be able to take care of my attending's patients without even having to contact him.

也许我太想 可以独当一面， 可以不需要 和我的主治沟通 便照顾好他的病患。


The second mistake that I made was worse.

而我犯的第二个错误更加严重。


In sending her home, I disregarded a little voice deep down inside that was trying to tell me, "Goldman, not a good idea. Don't do this."

在让她回家时， 我忽视了我内心一个微小的声音。 这个声音试图告诉我： “高德曼，这样不好，不要这么做。”


In fact, so lacking in confidence was I that I actually asked the nurse who was looking after Mrs. Drucker, "Do you think it's okay if she goes home?"

其实，当时的我是如此的没有自信， 以至于我甚至向照顾Drucker女士 的护士寻求了意见： “你觉得让她回家好么？”


And the nurse thought about it and said very matter-of-factly, "Yeah, I think she'll do okay."

那位护士想了想， 然后就事论事的说：“嗯，我觉得没有问题。”


I can remember that like it was yesterday.

这一切对我来说，都还像是发生在了昨天。


So I signed the discharge papers, and an ambulance came, paramedics came to take her home.

我在出院单上签了名， 一辆救护车来后急救人员将她送回了家。


And I went back to my work on the wards.

之后我回到了我在诊所的工作。


All the rest of that day, that afternoon, I had this kind of gnawing feeling inside my stomach.

在接下来的一天中， 那天下午， 我的肠胃有着一种翻滚的感觉。


但我还是照常的继续工作。


And at the end of the day, I packed up to leave the hospital and walked to the parking lot to take my car and drive home when I did something that I don't usually do.

在工作结束后，我整理了下便离开了医院。 在我走向停车场 去取我的车的路程中， 我做了一件我平常不会做的事情。


I walked through the emergency department on my way home.


And it was there that another nurse, not the nurse who was looking after Mrs. Drucker before, but another nurse, said three words to me that are the three words that most emergency physicians I know dread.

而就在那里，另外一位护士， 不是之前照顾Drucker女士的那位， 对我说了 绝大部分急诊医生 都害怕听到的三个字。


Others in medicine dread them as well, but there's something particular about emergency medicine because we see patients so fleetingly.

其他科系的医生也害怕这三个字， 但因为急诊医生看的病人都来去匆匆， 这三个字对我们有着特别的意义。


"Do you remember that patient you sent home?"

“记得吗？你送回家的那个患者？”


那位护士就事论事的问道。


"Well she's back," in just that tone of voice.

“她又回来了。” 她就用了这样平常的语调。


About an hour after she had arrived home, after I'd sent her home, she collapsed and her family called 911 and the paramedics brought her back to the emergency department where she had a blood pressure of 50, which is in severe shock.

在我让她回家后 大约一个小时后， 她昏倒在了地上，她的家人打了911， 急救人员将她重新带回了急诊室。 此时的她已严重休克， 血压只有 50。


And she was barely breathing and she was blue.

她的呼吸极其微弱，面色发青。


And the emerg. staff pulled out all the stops.

急救人员们使出了浑身解数。


They gave her medications to raise her blood pressure.

他们给了她提升血压的药物，


并将她连接上了人工呼吸器。


And I was shocked and shaken to the core.

我震惊不已， 吓得不得了。


And I went through this roller coaster, because after they stabilized her, she went to the intensive care unit, and I hoped against hope that she would recover.

之后我的心情便像是做着云霄飞车一般， 因为当他们将她的情况稳定下来后， 便将她送进了加护病房， 我在绝望中希望她能够醒过来。


And over the next two or three days, it was clear that she was never going to wake up.

但在接下来的两三天中， 她再也不会醒来的可能性越来越大。


她的脑部已经受到了无法逆转的损伤。


And over the course of the next eight or nine days, they resigned themselves to what was happening.

在接下来的八到九天里， 他们慢慢的接受了这件事实。


And at about the nine day mark, they let her go -- Mrs. Drucker, a wife, a mother and a grandmother.

在第九天，他们选择让她离开人间 -- Drucker女士， 一个家庭的妻子，母亲， 和祖母。


They say you never forget the names of those who die.

有人说你永远不会忘记那些 (因你的疏忽而过世的）人的名字，


And that was my first time to be acquainted with that.

而那是我第一次意识到这句话的现实。


Over the next few weeks, I beat myself up and I experienced for the first time the unhealthy shame that exists in our culture of medicine -- where I felt alone, isolated, not feeling the healthy kind of shame that you feel, because you can't talk about it with your colleagues.

在接下来的几个星期内， 我无比的沮丧， 并第一次经历了 那种在医学文化中存在的 危险的羞愧感 -- 我觉得孤单无助。 这不是那种健康的羞愧感， 因为你不能和你的同事提起讨论它。


You know that healthy kind, when you betray a secret that a best friend made you promise never to reveal and then you get busted and then your best friend confronts you and you have terrible discussions, but at the end of it all that sick feeling guides you and you say, I'll never make that mistake again.

– 就是那种， 当你背叛了对挚友的承诺而说出了答应要保守的秘密， 并被他知道了以后， 你的挚友找你算账时， 虽然你们会争执不休， 但最后那层罪恶感仍然会主导你， 你告诉自己，我绝对不会再犯同样的错误。


And you make amends and you never make that mistake again.

如是，你做了修正的承诺，然后你永不会再犯那样的错。


That's the kind of shame that is a teacher.

这种羞愧有着教导的作用。


The unhealthy shame I'm talking about is the one that makes you so sick inside.

而我所说的那种非良性的羞愧 会让你愧对于心。


It's the one that says, not that what you did was bad, but that you are bad.

它会对你说， 并非你做的是错的， 而是你根本就是坏人。


And it wasn't because of my attending; he was a doll.

而这也不是因为我的主治；他人非常好。


He talked to the family, and I'm quite sure that he smoothed things over and made sure that I didn't get sued.

他和那家人好好的谈过。我确定他为了确保 我没有被控告而替我打了圆场。


And I kept asking myself these questions.

但我仍然不断问我自己这些问题：


Why didn't I ask my attending? Why did I send her home?

为什么当时我没有联系我的主治？为什么我当时会让她回家？


And then at my worst moments: Why did I make such a stupid mistake?

更加沮丧时，我会问： 我为什么会犯下如此愚蠢的错误？


为什么我会选择进入医学界？


慢慢的但稳定地， 那糟糕的感觉开始淡化了。


And on a cloudy day, there was a crack in the clouds and the sun started to come out and I wondered, maybe I could feel better again.

然后在一个阴云密布的日子里， 当我看到一束阳光从云隙中探出， 我觉得， 或许我能再次感觉好起来。


And I made myself a bargain that if only I redouble my efforts to be perfect and never make another mistake again, please make the voices stop.

然后我和自己做了一个约定： 如果我加倍努力做到完美， 不再犯错， 请就此让那自责的声音消去。


Two years later I was an attending in the emergency department at a community hospital just north of Toronto, and I saw a 25 year-old man with a sore throat.

两年后，当我在一家多伦多北部一间社区医院的 急症室做主治医生时， 我看了一位喉咙酸痛的25岁的男人。


当时诊所很忙，所以我也有些急。


I looked at his throat, it was a little bit pink.

我看了看，他的喉咙有些红肿。


And I gave him a prescription for penicillin and sent him on his way.

我给他开了盘尼西林的处方后 便让他离开了。


And even as he was walking out the door, he was still sort of pointing to his throat.

即便当他走出诊所的大门的时候， 他似乎还在指着他的喉咙。


And two days later I came to do my next emergency shift, and that's when my chief asked to speak to me quietly in her office.

两天后，又轮到我在急诊室值班。 那时我的主任要我去她的办公室里私下谈谈。


And she said the three words: Do you remember?

她说了那三个字： 记得吗？


"Do you remember that patient you saw with the sore throat?"

“记得吗？那位你看过的喉咙酸痛的患者？”


Well it turns out, he didn't have a strep throat.

原来，他并没有得链球菌性咽喉炎。


He had a potentially life-threatening condition called epiglottitis.

得的是一种有可能威胁到生命的病症， 叫会厌炎。


You can Google it, but it's an infection, not of the throat, but of the upper airway, and it can actually cause the airway to close.

各位可以在谷歌上查询， 但它不是喉咙，而是上呼吸道的感染， 并有可能造成呼吸道阻塞。


He was placed on intravenous antibiotics and he recovered after a few days.

在被安排做抗生素静脉注射的几天之后， 他便痊愈了。


And I went through the same period of shame and recriminations and felt cleansed and went back to work, until it happened again and again and again.

而我又回到了那个愧疚和自责的时光中， 然后等情绪平复后，又回到了工作岗位， 直到这些错误再度重复的发生。


Twice in one emergency shift, I missed appendicitis.

在同一个急诊的值班中，我两次没有发现病患得了盲肠炎。


Now that takes some doing, especially when you work in a hospital that at the time saw but 14 people a night.

这是很难想象会发生的事情， 尤其是当你在一间一个晚上 只见十四名病患的医院工作。


Now in both cases, I didn't send them home and I don't think there was any gap in their care.

虽然对这两个病例，我都没有让他们回家， 而我也不觉得在治疗照顾过程中有任何空隙和差错。


其中一位我诊断他有肾结石，


I ordered a kidney X-ray. When it turned out to be normal, my colleague who was doing a reassessment of the patient noticed some tenderness in the right lower quadrant and called the surgeons.

并安排了肾脏X光，但结果正常。 我的同事当时正在对病人的病情做重新的诊断。 在他留意到病人右下腹的地方有些柔软时，便联系了外科医生。


另一位病患有严重的腹泻。


I ordered some fluids to rehydrate him and asked my colleague to reassess him.

我给了他一些液体帮助他补充水分， 并让我的同事重新看了看。


And he did and when he noticed some tenderness in the right lower quadrant, called the surgeons.

他照做了。 当他注意到病人右下腹有些柔软时，也联系了外科医生。


In both cases, they had their operations and they did okay.

这两名病患 都做了手术并康复了。


But each time, they were gnawing at me, eating at me.

但每当我想到这两起病例， 那种感觉都会折磨啃噬我。


And I'd like to be able to say to you that my worst mistakes only happened in the first five years of practice as many of my colleagues say, which is total B.S.

而我也希望我可以告诉你 我造成的最严重的错误只发生在了我开始行医的前五年， 像我众多的同事所称一般。但这完全是扯淡。


Some of my doozies have been in the last five years.

在最近的五年中，我也犯了一些错误。


我依然觉得孤独，羞愧，无助。


Here's the problem: If I can't come clean and talk about my mistakes, if I can't find the still-small voice that tells me what really happened, how can I share it with my colleagues?

但问题的症结是： 如果我不能理清 和谈论我所犯过的错误， 如果我无法找到那可以告诉我错误的源头的 那仍然微小的声音， 我又如何能和我的同事分享我的经验？


How can I teach them about what I did so that they don't do the same thing?

我又如何教导他们， 让他们不再重蹈我的覆辙？


If I were to walk into a room -- like right now, I have no idea what you think of me.

当我走入一个场合时 -- 就像现在，我完全不知道各位如何看待我。


When was the last time you heard somebody talk about failure after failure after failure?

你们上一次听到别人谈论自己 一次又一次的失败是什么时候的事情？


Oh yeah, you go to a cocktail party and you might hear about some other doctor, but you're not going to hear somebody talking about their own mistakes.

是的，如果你们去参加一场聚会， 你或许会听到某些关于其他医生的错误的闲聊， 但你不会听到有人 谈论自己所犯的错误。


If I were to walk into a room filled with my colleages and ask for their support right now and start to tell what I've just told you right now, I probably wouldn't get through two of those stories before they would start to get really uncomfortable, somebody would crack a joke, they'd change the subject and we would move on.

如果我现在走入一间坐满我的同事的房间， 向他们寻求帮助 并开始和他们说我刚才告诉各位的事情， 或许在我还没讲超过两个故事之前， 他们就会开始感到非常的不自在。 有人就会讲个笑话， 然后他们会改变话题。


And in fact, if I knew and my colleagues knew that one of my orthopedic colleagues took off the wrong leg in my hospital, believe me, I'd have trouble making eye contact with that person.

事实上，如果我，或者我的同事， 知道医院中一位骨科的同事帮病人截错了腿， 相信我，当我遇到他时， 我也无法与他有正常眼神的交汇。


这就是我们所拥有的体系 --


一个完完全全的否定错误的体系。


It's a system in which there are two kinds of physicians -- those who make mistakes and those who don't, those who can't handle sleep deprivation and those who can, those who have lousy outcomes and those who have great outcomes.

在这个制度当中 只有两种人 -- 犯错的 不犯错的， 可以调适睡眠不足的和不可以忍受的， 以及那些有着糟糕的结果 和有着优秀的结果的。


And it's almost like an ideological reaction, like the antibodies begin to attack that person.

这几乎就像免疫系统的自我反应， 像抗体一般开始攻击那个不一样的人。


And we have this idea that if we drive the people who make mistakes out of medicine, what will we be left with, but a safe system.

我们有着一种想法： 当我们将所有的会犯错的人 赶出医学界后， 我们便会得到一个安全的系统。


但这种想法会衍生出两个问题。


In my 20 years or so of medical broadcasting and journalism, I've made a personal study of medical malpractice and medical errors to learn everything I can, from one of the first articles I wrote for the Toronto Star to my show "White Coat, Black Art."

在我二十余年的 医疗广播和新闻工作中， 从我为多伦多星报所写的第一篇文章 到我的节目《白袍魔艺》， 我自行研究了我可以接触到的 一切医疗疏失和医疗错误。


And what I've learned is that errors are absolutely ubiquitous.

而我所学到的， 便是错误绝对是无处不在。


We work in a system where errors happen every day, where one in 10 medications are either the wrong medication given in hospital or at the wrong dosage, where hospital-acquired infections are getting more and more numerous, causing havoc and death.

我们工作在一个 每天都会发生错误的制度中。 医院有十分之一的几率 会给错药 或者给了错误的剂量， 而在医院内被传染的病例正在日渐增多， 造成不必要的伤害和死亡。


In this country, as many as 24,000 Canadians die of preventable medical errors.

在这个国家中， 有将近2万4千多加拿大人死于 可以避免的医疗错误。


In the United States, the Institute of Medicine pegged it at 100,000.

在美国，据医学学院统计，这个人数达到了10万之多。


In both cases, these are gross underestimates, because we really aren't ferreting out the problem as we should.

即使如此，这两项数据也还是过于低估了现实， 因为我们从未像我们该做的那般 深入地探究这个问题。


In a hospital system where medical knowledge is doubling every two or three years, we can't keep up with it.

在一个医疗知识 以两到三年为单位成倍增长的 医院体系中，我们无法紧跟着这些知识的增长。


Sleep deprivation is absolutely pervasive.

睡眠不足的情形绝对是非常普遍的，


而我们也无法摆脱这个问题。


We have our cognitive biases, so that I can take a perfect history on a patient with chest pain.

我们自己的直觉偏差也会直接影响到我们的结论。 比如说，我可以为一位胸痛的病人记录下完美的病历。


Now take the same patient with chest pain, make them moist and garrulous and put a little bit of alcohol on their breath, and suddenly my history is laced with contempt.

但如果这位同样的胸痛的病人 当时胡言乱语 再加上呼吸带着些许的酒精味的话， 我写下的病历便会挟带着些许的轻蔑。


而这份病历便会截然不同。


I'm not a robot; I don't do things the same way each time.

我不是机器人， 不会每次都做同样的事情。


And my patients aren't cars; they don't tell me their symptoms in the same way each time.

我的病患也不是车子， 他们不会每次都用相同的方式去描述他们的症状。


Given all of that, mistakes are inevitable.


So if you take the system, as I was taught, and weed out all the error-prone health professionals, well there won't be anybody left.

如果真像我被教导的体系那般 赶出所有易出错的医护专业人员， 那么这个领域便不会有人留下。


And you know that business about people not wanting to talk about their worst cases?

还有就是关于 人们不愿 谈论他们所犯的最糟糕的错误一事。


On my show, on "White Coat, Black Art," I made it a habit of saying, "Here's my worst mistake," I would say to everybody from paramedics to the chief of cardiac surgery, "Here's my worst mistake," blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, "What about yours?" and I would point the microphone towards them.

在我的节目《白袍魔艺》中， 我已经会习惯性地说：“这是我最糟糕的错误”。 我会对从急救医士 到心脏外科首席医师的每个人这么说： “这是我最糟糕的错误，如是，如是。” 然后我会把麦克风递给他们，问：“你呢？”


And their pupils would dilate, they would recoil, then they would look down and swallow hard and start to tell me their stories.

此时他们的瞳孔会放大， 他们会退却。 然后他们会看着地上，猛吞着口水 并开始向我倾诉他们的故事。


They want to tell their stories. They want to share their stories.

他们想说他们的故事，他们也想分享他们的故事。


They want to be able to say, "Look, don't make the same mistake I did."

他们想能够说： “听着，别犯和我一样的错。”


What they need is an environment to be able to do that.

他们只是需要一个场合来吐露心声。


What they need is a redefined medical culture.

他们需要的是一个重新定义的医学文化，


And it starts with one physician at a time.

从一位又一位个别的医生开始。


The redefined physician is human, knows she's human, accepts it, isn't proud of making mistakes, but strives to learn one thing from what happened that she can teach to somebody else.

重新定义过的医生也是人类， 明白她自己是人， 并接受这个事实。她并不觉得犯错误是光荣的， 却可以 从其中学习 并教于他人。


她会与他人分享她的经验，


She's supportive when other people talk about their mistakes.

并在别人谈论自己过错的时候给于支持。


And she points out other people's mistakes, not in a gotcha way, but in a loving, supportive way so that everybody can benefit.

她不会有一种落井下石的心态， 而会以一种 可以让每个人都从中受惠的关怀，了解的方式 来指出他人的错误。


And she works in a culture of medicine that acknowledges that human beings run the system, and when human beings run the system, they will make mistakes from time to time.

而她所工作的医学文化 承认 整个体系是由人在运作， 而当人在运作一个体系的时候，时不时地错误在所难免。


So the system is evolving to create backups that make it easier to detect those mistakes that humans inevitably make and also fosters in a loving, supportive way places where everybody who is observing in the health care system can actually point out things that could be potential mistakes and is rewarded for doing so, and especially people like me, when we do make mistakes, we're rewarded for coming clean.

这样系统才可以不断地进化改革， 产生可以让人更加容易察觉 这些无法避免的错误的 补救方案。 与此同时，我们可以培养一个热心关怀的工作环境， 鼓励每一位 在观察我们的 医疗系统的人 随时指出一些潜在的错误。 尤其是鼓励像我一样的人，当我们犯错后， 我们可以去正面面对并加以改正。


我是一位重新定义后的医生。


我是一个人类，我也会犯错。


I'm sorry about that, but I strive to learn one thing that I can pass on to other people.

我为此感到抱歉， 但我会尽力从中学习 并教于他人。


I still don't know what you think of me, but I can live with that.

我仍然不知各位如何看待我， 但我想我对此可以接受。


And let me close with three words of my own: I do remember.

最后让我以我自己的三个字做为结语： 我记得。


Do you know how many choices you make in a typical day?

你知道在日常生活中你平均 每天做多少选择？


Do you know how many choices you make in typical week?

你知道你平均每周 做多少选择？


I recently did a survey with over 2,000 Americans, and the average number of choices that the typical American reports making is about 70 in a typical day.

我最近在超过2000美国人中 做了一个调查， 结果显示，一个典型的美国人 平均每天 做70个选择。


There was also recently a study done with CEOs in which they followed CEOs around for a whole week.

另外最近还有一个对于CEO们的研究 科学家们在一星期中跟着CEO们


And these scientists simply documented all the various tasks that these CEOs engaged in and how much time they spent engaging in making decisions related to these tasks.

然后记录下他们所参与和完成的 各种不同的活动与任务 和他们做的所有与这些任务有关的 决定所用的时间。


And they found that the average CEO engaged in about 139 tasks in a week.

科学家们由此发现，每一个CEO平均 每周参与完成大概139个任务。


Each task was made up of many, many, many sub-choices of course.

当然了，每个任务又都是由许多小的选择构成的。


50 percent of their decisions were made in nine minutes or less.

这其中50%的决定 都是他们在九分钟甚至更短的时间内做出的。


Only about 12 percent of the decisions did they make an hour or more of their time.

只有其中百分之十二的决定， 用了他们一小时或更长的时间。


Do you know how many choices make it into your nine minute category versus your one hour category? How well do you think you're doing at managing those choices?

你知道它们中多少 是“九分钟抉择” 又有多少是一小时的选择？ 在管理这些选择上， 你做的如何？


Today I want to talk about one of the biggest modern day choosing problems that we have, which is the choice overload problem.

今天我要讲一讲 现在社会中我们所面对的最严重的选择问题： 选择过多。


I want to talk about the problem and some potential solutions.

我想要讲一讲这些问题 与一些可行的解决办法。


Now as I talk about this problem, I'm going to have some questions for you and I'm going to want to know your answers.

我现在先将这个问题， 我要问你们一些问题 然后我希望得到你们的答案。


So when I ask you a question, since I'm blind, only raise your hand if you want to burn off some calories.

所以当我问你们一个问题 由于我看不见， 不要举手除非你只是想消耗一下卡路里。


Otherwise, when I ask you a question, and if your answer is yes, I'd like you to clap your hands.

（笑声) 否则，当我问你们一个问题， 如果你的答案是：是， 我希望你们可以鼓掌。


So for my first question for you today: Are you guys ready to hear about the choice overload problem?

所以，我今天给你们的第一个问题是： 对于选择过多这个问题你们准备好听了么？


So when I was a graduate student at Stanford University, I used to go to this very, very upscale grocery store; at least at that time it was truly upscale.

当我还是斯坦福大学的一名本科学生时， 我经常去一个非常高级的杂货店； 至少在当时看来那家店是十分高级的。


Now this store, it was almost like going to an amusement park.

去那家店，就像是去游乐园一样。


They had 250 different kinds of mustards and vinegars and over 500 different kinds of fruits and vegetables and more than two dozen different kinds of bottled water -- and this was during a time when we actually used to drink tap water.

他们有250种不同的黄芥末和醋 还有超过500中不同种类的 蔬菜和水果 还有超过24中不同的瓶装水 而那是我们还在喝水龙头里的水的年代。


I used to love going to this store, but on one occasion I asked myself, well how come you never buy anything?

我过去十分喜欢去这家店， 但是有一次我问自己， 为什么你从来都不买东西呢？


They had over 75 different kinds of olive oil, including those that were in a locked case that came from thousand-year-old olive trees.

他们有75种以上不同的橄榄油， 包括那些被锁在盒子里 从4000年的橄榄树上取来的油。


So I one day decided to pay a visit to the manager, and I asked the manager, "Is this model of offering people all this choice really working?"

于是有一天我决定去拜访一下这家店的经理， 我问他， “这个给人们所有选择的模型真的有用么？”


And he pointed to the busloads of tourists that would show up everyday, with cameras ready usually.

然后他向我示意了那些每天都会来的 一车一车的 举着相机的游客。


We decided to do a little experiment, and we picked jam for our experiment.

我们决定做一个小实验， 然后选择了果酱作为试验品。


他们有148种不同的果酱。


We set up a little tasting booth right near the entrance of the store.

在店门口的地方 我们摆设了一个小的品尝台。


We there put out six different flavors of jam or 24 different flavors of jam, and we looked at two things: First, in which case were people more likely to stop, sample some jam?

我们在那儿摆6种 或24种不同味道的果酱， 然后我们观察了两件事： 第一，人们在哪种情况下 更愿意停下脚步品尝一些果酱？


More people stopped when there were 24, about 60 percent, than when there were six, about 40 percent.

相比较下，大部分，约60%的人，在有24种果酱走廊停了脚步， 而当有6种果酱时 只有40%的人。


The next thing we looked at is in which case were people more likely to buy a jar of jam.

我们观察的另一件事是： 在人们在哪种情况下更愿意 买一罐果酱


这时，我们观察到了相反的结果。


Of the people who stopped when there were 24, only three percent of them actually bought a jar of jam.

在那些在有24种果酱时停下的人们中， 只有3%的人真正买了果酱。


Of the people who stopped when there were six, well now we saw that 30 percent of them actually bought a jar of jam.

而此时，在那些在有6种果酱时停下的人们中， 我们发现有30%的人 买了果酱。


Now if you do the math, people were at least six times more likely to buy a jar of jam Now choosing not to buy a jar of jam is probably good for us -- at least it's good for our waistlines -- but it turns out that this choice overload problem affects us even in very consequential decisions. We choose not to choose, even when it goes against our best self-interests.

现在如果你算一下的话， 当人们只有六种选择时， 比有24种时 买果酱的倾向上升了至少六倍 选择不买果酱 也许对我们来说是一件好事儿 至少对我们的水桶腰来说， 但是结果证明过度选择甚至在 非常重要的决定上影响我们。 我们甚至在有悖个人利益的情况下， 宁愿放弃选择。


So now for the topic of today: financial savings.

所以现在来介绍我们今天的话题：金融理财。


Now I'm going to describe to you a study I did with Gur Huberman, Emir Kamenica, Wei Jang where we looked at the retirement savings decisions of nearly a million Americans from about 650 plans all in the U.S.

现在我要向你们介绍我与Gur Huberman, Emir Kamerica, Wei Jang 一起做的一个关于 近百万美国人在全美650多种 养老金计划中 选择的


And what we looked at was whether the number of fund offerings available in a retirement savings plan, the 401 plan, does that affect people's likelihood to save more for tomorrow.

研究。 我们研究了 养老金计划， 也就是401（k)雇员福利中 所提供的基金选择数量， 是否影响人们 为未来存款的几率。


And what we found was that indeed there was a correlation.

我们发现， 这之前却是有联系。


So in these plans, we had about 657 plans that ranged from offering people anywhere from two to 59 different fund offerings.

于是在这些计划中，我们选择了657个 从提供2到59种基金 的不同计划。


And what we found was that, the more funds offered, indeed, there was less participation rate.

我们发现， 事实上，提供的基金越多， 参购率就越低。


So if you look at the extremes, those plans that offered you two funds, participation rates were around in the mid-70s -- still not as high as we want it to be.

所以如果观察一下极端的情况的话， 会发现那些提供给客户两种基金的计划 的参购率在70左右， 仍然没有我们期待中的那么高。


In those plans that offered nearly 60 funds, participation rates have now dropped to about the 60th percentile.

那些提供接近60种基金的计划， 参购率降低到了 60多的参购率。


Now it turns out that even if you do choose to participate when there are more choices present, even then, it has negative consequences.

由此看来， 即使是你真的选择参与一个计划， 当那么多计划摆在你面前时， 还是会造成负面的影响。


So for those people who did choose to participate, the more choices available, the more likely people were to completely avoid stocks or equity funds.

所以对于那些选择参与计划的人来说， 选择越多， 他们越容易选择 完全避开股票或类似的基金。


The more choices available, the more likely they were to put all their money in pure money market accounts.

选择越多， 越容易造成人们 把钱存进单纯的存钱账户中。


Now neither of these extreme decisions are the kinds of decisions that any of us would recommend for people when you're considering their future financial well-being.

现在，这两种极端选择 没有一种是当考虑到朋友未来的生活时， 我们会推荐给朋友的 好的选择。


Well, over the past decade, we have observed three main negative consequences to offering people more and more choices.

在过去十年中， 我们观察到了提供人们越来越多的选择


They're more likely to delay choosing -- procrastinate even when it goes against their best self-interest.

所造成的负面影响 他们越来越容易推迟选择的过程， 即使这样做会损害到自身的利益。


They're more likely to make worse choices -- worse financial choices, medical choices.

人们更容易做出更差的选择- 更差的理财选择，医疗选择。


They're more likely to choose things that make them less satisfied, even when they do objectively better.

人们更容易选择那些令自己不满意的选项， 即使那些选择也许客观来讲并没有那么差。


The main reason for this is because, we might enjoy gazing at those giant walls of mayonnaises, mustards, vinegars, jams, but we can't actually do the math of comparing and contrasting and actually picking from that stunning display.

这是因为， 虽然我们很享受看一排一排 由美乃滋，黄芥末，醋和果酱建成的的高墙， 却不愿意亲自比较 然后在如此庞大的陈列中做出选择。


So what I want to propose to you today are four simple techniques -- techniques that we have tested in one way or another in different research venues -- that you can easily apply in your businesses.

所以今天我想向你们介绍 四种简单的技巧- 它们都是你可以轻松地 运用在生意上， 并且被测试过许多次的 可靠技巧。


You've heard it said before, but it's never been more true than today, that less is more.

你们以前也许听过， 但这个说法在从前的社会从未像现今一样的适用- “少即是多”


People are always upset when I say, "Cut."

每一次我说“精减"的时候，人们总是会很生气。


They're always worried they're going to lose shelf space.

他们担心这样做会导致他们丢失自我空间。


But in fact, what we're seeing more and more is that if you are willing to cut, get rid of those extraneous redundant options, well there's an increase in sales, there's a lowering of costs, there is an improvement of the choosing experience.

但事实上，根据我们所观察到的是 当一个人越是愿意 放弃多余的选择， 使得营业额上升， 价格降低， 越是会改善原则的经历。


When Proctor & Gamble went from 26 different kinds of Head & Shoulders to 15, they saw an increase in sales by 10 percent.

当保洁公司 将26种不同的海飞丝减至15种时， 销售额上升了百分之十。


When the Golden Cat Corporation got rid of their 10 worst-selling cat litter products, they saw an increase in profits by 87 percent -- a function of both increase in sales and lowering of costs.

当金猫公司 停止了他们的十种销售量最差的猫粮的销售， 盈利上升了 百分之八十七- 是又能增加销售额 还降低了成本两全其美的好方法。


You know, the average grocery store today offers you 45,000 products.

正如你们所知道的，现在一个普通的杂货店 提供45000种商品给你选择。


The typical Walmart today offers you 100,000 products.

一个典型的沃尔玛为你提供100000种商品。


But the ninth largest retailer, the ninth biggest retailer in the world today is Aldi, and it offers you only 1,400 products -- one kind of canned tomato sauce.

但是，第九大的零售商 今天世界上第九大的零售商， 是阿尔迪， 而他们只提供给顾客1400种商品- 一种罐装番茄酱。


Now in the financial savings world, I think one of the best examples that has recently come out on how to best manage the choice offerings has actually been something that David Laibson was heavily involved in designing, which was the program that they have at Harvard.

在这个理财的世界中， 我认为在关于如何最有效地管理选择中 最好的例子是 David Laibson十分投入的 一个哈佛的项目。


Every single Harvard employee is now automatically enrolled in a lifecycle fund.

哈佛的每一个教职工 都自动被登记加入 一个生活周期基金中。


For those people who actually want to choose, they're given 20 funds, not 300 or more funds.

那些愿意自己选择的人， 有20种不同的基金选择， 而不是300种甚至更多。


You know, often, people say, "I don't know how to cut.

你知道，人们很喜欢说， ”我不知道怎么消减


这些都是非常重要的选择。”


And the first thing I do is I ask the employees, "Tell me how these choices are different from one another.

所以我做的第一件事是问这些教职工， “告诉我这些选择与其他那些有何不同，


And if your employees can't tell them apart, neither can your consumers."

如果你的员工们不能分辨它们的不同， 你的顾客肯定也不能。“


Now before we started our session this afternoon, I had a chat with Gary.

今天下午在这个活动开始之前， 我跟Gary聊了一会儿。


And Gary said that he would be willing to offer people in this audience an all-expenses-paid free vacation to the most beautiful road in the world.

Gary跟我说他愿意 为今天在场的所有观众提供 一次到这个世界上最美的路的旅行，


我希望你们读一下 对这条路的描写。


And now I'll give you a few seconds to read it if you're ready to take Gary up on his offer.

现在我给你们几秒钟自己读一下， 如果你愿意接受Gary的提议的话，


Okay. Anybody who's ready to take him up on his offer.

就请鼓掌。 好，有人愿意接受他的提议么？


All right, let me show you some more about this.

好吧，我多给你们看一些有关此事的。


You guys knew there was a trick, didn't you.

你们早就知道这是个诡计了，是吧？


现在，有谁愿意去这次旅行？


I think I might have actually heard more hands.

（观众鼓掌） 我以为我会听到更多掌声呢。


Now in fact, you had objectively more information the first time around than the second time around, but I would venture to guess that you felt that it was more real the second time around.

事实上， 客观地来讲， 你们第一次的时候比第二次得到的信息要多， 但是我冒昧地猜 你们觉得第二次更真实一些。


Because the pictures made it feel more real to you.

因为那些照片让你们 感觉更真实。


Which brings me to the second technique for handling the choice overload problem, which is concretization.

而这个例子就是我们今天要讲的第二个 处理选择过多的技巧， 具体化。


That in order for people to understand the differences between the choices, they have to be able to understand the consequences associated with each choice, and that the consequences need to be felt in a vivid sort of way, in a very concrete way.

为了令人们更好地理解 众多选择之间的区别， 他们必须理解， 每一个选择所将带来的后果， 而这些后果必须是可以 十分清晰、具体地感受到的。


Why do people spend an average of 15 to 30 percent more when they use an ATM card or a credit card as opposed to cash?

为什么人们平均每天花 比用现今多15%到30%的时间 在自动提款机或信用卡上呢？


Because it doesn't feel like real money.

因为那样感觉不像是真正的钱。


And it turns out that making it feel more concrete can actually be a very positive tool to use in getting people to save more.

所以 原来使感觉更具体化 可以成为令人们节约的 好方法。


So a study that I did with Shlomo Benartzi and Alessandro Previtero, we did a study with people at ING -- employees that are all working at ING -- and now these people were all in a session where they're doing enrollment for their 401 plan.

所以在一个我与Shlomo Benartzi 和Alessandro Precitero做的研究中， 我们和所有ING的 员工一起做了一个研究， 所有人都参加了一个 一起注册401雇员福利的会议。


And during that session, we kept the session exactly the way it used to be, but we added one little thing.

在这个过程中 我们在保持每个会议完全相同的情况下， 加了一个小东西。


The one little thing we added was we asked people to just think about all the positive things that would happen in your life By doing that simple thing, there was an increase in enrollment by 20 percent and there was an increase in the amount of people willing to save or the amount that they were willing to put down into their savings account by four percent.

我们加的是， 让他们 每个人都想象如果多存一些 生命中可能会发生的那些美好的事情。 仅仅是这样做后， 参与率上升了百分之二十， 人们愿意存钱的数额或者说是 愿意放进自己储蓄账户的金额增长了 百分之四。


We can handle more categories than we can handle choices.

相比处理选择来说， 我们可以轻松处理更多类别。


So for example, here's a study we did in a magazine aisle.

比如说， 我们做了一个有关买杂志类过道的研究，


It turns out that in Wegmans grocery stores up and down the northeast corridor, the magazine aisles range anywhere from 331 different kinds of magazines all the way up to 664.

发现在Wegmans百货商店中， 在东北走廊的地方， 买杂志的那一栏 有331到 甚至664种杂志。


If I show you 600 magazines and I divide them up into 10 categories, versus I show you 400 magazines and divide them up into 20 categories, you believe that I have given you more choice and a better choosing experience if I gave you the 400 than if I gave you the 600.

如果我先给你们看600本杂志， 然后把它们分成10类， 然后再给你们看400本杂志， 但是分成20类， 你们会相信， 当我给你们看 400本杂志时 比给你们600本时的选择更多，选择体验更好。


Because the categories tell me how to tell them apart.

因为类别可以帮我分辨它们的区别。


Here are two different jewelry displays.

这里有两个不同的珠宝展示，


One is called "Jazz" and the other one is called "Swing."

一个叫“爵士”，另一个叫“摇摆”


If you think the display on the left is Swing and the display on the right is Jazz, clap your hands.

如果你觉得左边的是“摇摆” 右边的是“爵士” 就请鼓掌。


If you think the one on the left is Jazz and the one on the right is Swing, clap your hands.

如果你觉得左边的是“爵士”， 右边的是“摇摆” 请鼓掌。


The one on the left is Jazz and the one on the right is Swing, but you know what?

左边的的确是“爵士”，而右边的正是“摇摆”， 但是你知道么？


This is a highly useless categorization scheme.

这是一个十分无用的分类阴谋。


The categories need to say something to the chooser, not the choice-maker.

类别必须可以告诉 选择者一些事情，而不是创造选择的人。


And you often see that problem when it comes down to those long lists of all these funds.

你们也许可以在 那些冗长的基金名单中看到这个问题。


Who are they actually supposed to be informing?

到底谁才是应该得到信息的人呢？


My fourth technique: Condition for complexity.

我的第四个技巧是：从简入繁


It turns out we can actually handle a lot more information than we think we can, we've just got to take it a little easier.

事实上，我们所能 承受的信息量比我们想象的要高， 我们需要做的就是用轻松地面度对待。


We have to gradually increase the complexity.

我们必须逐渐加大复杂程度。


I'm going to show you one example of what I'm talking about.

现在我给你们举一个有关的例子。


Let's take a very, very complicated decision: buying a car.

我们来一起做一个非常非常复杂的决定： 买车。


Here's a German car manufacturer that gives you the opportunity to completely custom make your car.

现在有一个德国制造商， 愿意让你定制一辆完全个性化的车。


You've got to make 60 different decisions, completely make up your car.

你必须要做60个不同的决定 才能做好这辆车。


Now these decisions vary in the number of choices that they offer per decision.

这些决定包括 每一个决定所提供的选择。


Car colors, exterior car colors -- I've got 56 choices.

光车的颜色，内置的颜色 就有56种选择。


有四种发动机，变速排档选择。


So now what I'm going to do is I'm going to vary the order in which these decisions appear.

现在我要做的是 改变这些要做的决定出线的顺序。


So half of the customers are going to go from high choice, 56 car colors, to low choice, four gearshifts.

所以，一般的观众 要从选择多的决定开始-56种颜色 开始到选择少的决定-四种变速排档。


The other half of the customers are going to go from low choice, four gearshifts, to 56 car colors, high choice.

另外一半的观众 要从选择少的决定，四种变档开始 到56种车颜色，选择多的决定


If you keep hitting the default button per decision, that means you're getting overwhelmed, that means I'm losing you.

如果你不停地按默认选项的话 就说明你已经被选择淹没了， 也就是说我正在失去你的参与。


What you find is the people who go from high choice to low choice, they're hitting that default button over and over and over again.

你会发现， 从选择多的开始到选择少的人 会不停地选择默认选项。


They go from low choice to high choice, they're hanging in there.

那些从选择少开始到选择多的人， 还在坚持着。


It's the same information. It's the same number of choices.

可是他们所得到的信息是完全一样的。所要做的选择也是一样的。


The only thing that I have done is I have varied the order in which that information is presented.

我所做的唯一一件事就是 改变了 信息所出现的顺序。


If I start you off easy, I learn how to choose.

如果我给你一个轻松的开始， 教你如何选择。


Even though choosing gearshift doesn't tell me anything about my preferences for interior decor, it still prepares me for how to choose.

即使选择变速排档 不能说明我对车内颜色的偏好 却仍能教会我如何去选择。


It also gets me excited about this big product that I'm putting together, so I'm more willing to be motivated to be engaged.

另一件令我兴奋的事实是我所要组成的是如此一个庞然大物， 所以我变得更有动力 去参与。


I have talked about four techniques for mitigating the problem of choice overload -- cut -- get rid of the extraneous alternatives; concretize -- make it real; categorize -- we can handle more categories, less choices; condition for complexity.

我讲了四种可以减缓过多选择的 技巧- 精简-放弃没有用的选择； 具体化-让选择变得更真实一些； 分类-我们能承受的类别比选择多； 从简入繁。


All of these techniques that I'm describing to you today are designed to help you manage your choices -- better for you, you can use them on yourself, better for the people that you are serving.

今天我所讲的所有技巧， 都是为了帮助你更好地管理选择而设计的- 使用这些技巧对你更好， 也对你所服务的那些人更好。


Because I believe that the key to getting the most from choice is to be choosy about choosing.

所以我相信 从选择中获益最多的关键是 对选择挑剔一些。


And the more we're able to be choosy about choosing the better we will be able to practice the art of choosing.

我们对选择越是挑剔 就越能 掌握选择的艺术。


In the 1980s in the communist Eastern Germany, if you owned a typewriter, you had to register it with the government.

20世纪80年代 在共产主义的东德， 如果你有一台打字机， 你就得去跟政府登记。


You had to register a sample sheet of text out of the typewriter.

你必须登记 出自那台打字机的 一份文本的样本。


And this was done so the government could track where text was coming from.

这样做后， 政府就能跟踪文本出自何方。


If they found a paper which had the wrong kind of thought, they could track down who created that thought.

如果他们发现一张纸上 写着错误的观点， 他们就能跟踪 是谁产生这样的观点。


And we in the West couldn't understand how anybody could do this, how much this would restrict freedom of speech.

而在西方 我们不能理解有人怎么能做这种事， 这将会多么限制言论自由啊。


We would never do that in our own countries.

我们永远不会在我们自己的国家 里这样做。


But today in 2011, if you go and buy a color laser printer from any major laser printer manufacturer and print a page, that page will end up having slight yellow dots printed on every single page in a pattern which makes the page unique to you and to your printer.

可是，2011年的今天， 如果你从任何一家大型的激光打印机厂商 买一台彩色激光打印机 打印出一页， 这页纸最后 会有一些小黄点 印在每一页上 图案让这页纸是独特 对你和你的打印机都是。


这就是今天 发生在我们身上的。


And nobody seems to be making a fuss about it.

似乎没有人为此大惊小怪。


And this is an example of the ways that our own governments are using technology against us, the citizens. And this is one of the main three sources of online problems today.

这是个 展示 我们的政府 使用科技 来对付我们这些公民们的例子。 这是今天网络问题的


If we take a look at what's really happening in the online world, we can group the attacks based on the attackers.

三大来源之一。 如果我们看一下在线世界到底发生了什么， 我们根据攻击者来分组。


Like here, we have Mr. Dimitry Golubov from the city of Kiev in Ukraine.

这里，我们有位德米特里 戈卢博夫先生 来自乌克兰的基辅市。


And the motives of online criminals are very easy to understand.

在线罪犯的动机 非常容易理解。


They use online attacks to make lots of money, and lots and lots of it.

他们通过在线攻击 赚很多钱， 很多很多钱。


We actually have several cases of millionaires online, multimillionaires, who made money with their attacks.

我们实际上有好几个案子 都是在线百万富翁，千万富翁， 都是通过在线攻击赚的。


Here's Vladimir Tsastsin form Tartu in Estonia.

这里还有来自爱沙尼亚的塔尔图的弗拉基米尔·莎斯森。


这位是阿尔弗雷德·冈萨雷斯。


This is Matthew Anderson, Tariq Al-Daour and so on and so on.

这是马修·安德森，塔利克·阿尔杜 等等等等。


These guys make their fortunes online, but they make it through the illegal means of using things like banking trojans to steal money from our bank accounts while we do online banking, or with keyloggers to collect our credit card information while we are doing online shopping from an infected computer.

这些人 在线挣了很多钱， 但他们挣的钱是非法的 通过使用类似银行木马 从我们账户偷钱 当我们在网上进行银行业务， 或者使用键盘记录 来收集我们的信用卡信息 当我们通过被感染的电脑来在线购物的时候。


The U.S. Secret Service, two months ago, froze the Swiss bank account of Mr. Sam Jain right here, and that bank account had 14.9 million U.S. dollars on it Mr. Jain himself is on the loose; nobody knows where he is.

美国情报局， 两个月前， 冻结了萨姆 杰恩先生 在瑞士的银行账户， 那个账户冻结的时候 帐上有一千四百九十万美金。 杰恩先生本人仍逍遥法外； 没人知道他在哪。


And I claim it's already today that it's more likely for any of us to become the victim of a crime online than here in the real world.

今天我断言 我们当中的任何一位都有可能 成为在线犯罪的受害者 甚至超越现实世界。


And it's very obvious that this is only going to get worse.

而且很显然 这种情况越来越糟。


In the future, the majority of crime will be happening online.

将来，大多数的犯罪 会发生在线上。


The second major group of attackers that we are watching today are not motivated by money.

第二类主要的攻击集团 我们今天观察的 不是出于金钱。


They're motivated by something else -- motivated by protests, motivated by an opinion, motivated by the laughs.

他们的动机源于别处 -- 出于抗议， 出于发表意见， 出于被嘲笑过。


Groups like Anonymous have risen up over the last 12 months and have become a major player in the field of online attacks.

这些匿名集团 在过去的12个月中很活跃 并且变成了在线攻击领域的 主要的参与者


So those are the three main attackers: criminals who do it for the money, hacktivists like Anonymous doing it for the protest, but then the last group are nation states, governments doing the attacks.

这些就是三组主要的攻击者： 为了钱的罪犯， 匿名的攻击活跃者 为了抗议而作的， 而最后一组是民族国家， 政府在攻击。


And then we look at cases like what happened in DigiNotar.

我们看一下例子 就像DigiNotar公司发生的。


This is a prime example of what happens when governments attack against their own citizens.

这是政府攻击的 典型例子 来反对自己的民众。


DigiNotar is a Certificate Authority from The Netherlands -- or actually, it was.

DigiNotar是荷兰的 一个权威证书 或者说它曾经是。


It was running into bankruptcy last fall because they were hacked into.

它去年秋天遭遇 破产 因为他们遭到入侵。


Somebody broke in and they hacked it thoroughly.

有人闯进去 彻底毁了它。


And I asked last week in a meeting with Dutch government representatives, I asked one of the leaders of the team whether he found plausible that people died because of the DigiNotar hack.

我上周 在与荷兰政府代表开会时问过， 我问一位领导 是否他发现有可能 有人会 因为Diginotar攻击而死亡。


So how do people die as the result of a hack like this?

那么，究竟如何人们的死亡 归咎于这样一个攻击呢？


Well you need a certificate if you have a website that has https, SSL encrypted services, services like Gmail.

你需要证书的情况会是 你有一个有https的网站， SSL加密服务， 类似Gmail的服务。


Now we all, or a big part of us, use Gmail or one of their competitors, but these services are especially popular in totalitarian states like Iran, where dissidents use foreign services like Gmail because they know they are more trustworthy than the local services and they are encrypted over SSL connections, so the local government can't snoop on their discussions.

当今我们所有人或大部分人， 使用Gmail或它对手们中的任何一家， 这些服务在极权主义国家 尤其流行 比如伊朗， 持异议者 使用诸如Gmail的国外服务 因为他们知道这些比当地的服务更可靠 他们通过SSL的连接加密， 所以当地政府窥探不到 他们的讨论。


Except they can if they hack into a foreign C.A.

他们也能，如果他们攻击了一个国外权威证书，


And this is exactly what happened with the case of DigiNotar.

这恰恰就是发生在 DigiNotar的案子中。


What about Arab Spring and things that have been happening, for example, in Egypt?

阿拉伯跳是怎么回事？ 比如说在埃及发生的那些事？


Well in Egypt, the rioters looted the headquarters of the Egyptian secret police in April 2011, and when they were looting the building they found lots of papers.

在埃及， 暴徒们洗劫了 埃及秘密警察的总部 那是2011年4月， 他们洗劫时找到很多文件。


Among those papers, was this binder entitled "FINFISHER."

在这些文件中， 有一个名叫FINFISHER的夹子。


And within that binder were notes from a company based in Germany which had sold the Egyptian government a set of tools for intercepting -- and in very large scale -- all the communication of the citizens of the country.

夹子中有些笔记 是来自一家德国公司 这家公司卖给埃及政府 一套工具 用来截取-- 很大比例是 国家公众的所有通信。


They had sold this tool for 280,000 Euros to the Egyptian government.

他们把这套工具 以28万欧元卖给埃及政府。


The company headquarters are right here.


So Western governments are providing totalitarian governments with tools to do this against their own citizens.

所以，西方政府 给极权政府提供工具 来反对他们自己的民众。


But Western governments are doing it to themselves as well.

但西方政府也同样对他们自己这样做。


For example, in Germany, just a couple of weeks ago the so-called State Trojan was found, which was a trojan used by German government officials to investigate their own citizens.

比如，在德国， 就是几周前 发现一个叫Scuinst Trojan 的 木马病毒 被德国政府官方用来 调查他们自己的民众。


If you are a suspect in a criminal case, well it's pretty obvious, your phone will be tapped.

如果你是一宗刑事案件的嫌疑， 很显然，你的电话会被监听。


可是今天，事情已经超越了。


他们会监视你的网络连接。


They will even use tools like State Trojan to infect your computer with a trojan, which enables them to watch all your communication, to listen to your online discussions, to collect your passwords.

他们会用类似Scuinst Trojan的工具 用一个木马来感染你的电脑， 这样就让他们 监视你所有的通信， 监听你的在线讨论， 收集你的密码。


Now when we think deeper about things like these, the obvious response from people should be that, "Okay, that sounds bad, but that doesn't really affect me because I'm a legal citizen.

当我们更深的想一下 这些事情， 人们的反应显然应是 “对啊，听起来很糟糕， 但因为我是合法公民，也不会真正影响我啦。


And this is an argument, which doesn't make sense.

这就是争论所在， 没什么道理。


This is not a question between privacy against security.

这不是个 隐私 反对安全的问题。


It's a question of freedom against control.

而是一个 自由反对管制的问题。


And while we might trust our governments any right we give away will be given away for good.

我们2011年的当下 会信任我们的政府， 我们放弃的任何权力会永远失去。


And do we trust, do we blindly trust, any future government, a government we might have 50 years from now?

我们会不会信任未来的政府， 盲目地信任， 一个50年后的 政府呢？


And these are the questions that we have to worry about for the next 50 years.

这些就是我们要为下一个50年 而担忧的问题。