Daily Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs) hold great promise to revolutionize current clinical systems for their superior capacities on medical text processing tasks and medical licensing exams. Meanwhile, traditional ML models such as SVM and XGBoost have still been mainly adopted in clinical prediction tasks. An emerging question is Can LLMs beat traditional ML models in clinical prediction? Thus, we build a new benchmark ClinicalBench to comprehensively study the clinical predictive modeling capacities of both general-purpose and medical LLMs, and compare them with traditional ML models. ClinicalBench embraces three common clinical prediction tasks, two databases, 14 general-purpose LLMs, 8 medical LLMs, and 11 traditional ML models. Through extensive empirical investigation, we discover that both general-purpose and medical LLMs, even with different model scales, diverse prompting or fine-tuning strategies, still cannot beat traditional ML models in clinical prediction yet, shedding light on their potential deficiency in clinical reasoning and decision-making. We call for caution when practitioners adopt LLMs in clinical applications. ClinicalBench can be utilized to bridge the gap between LLMs' development for healthcare and real-world clinical practice.

Foundation Models (FMs) trained on Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on numerous clinical prediction tasks. However, most existing EHR FMs have context windows of <1k tokens. This prevents them from modeling full patient EHRs which can exceed 10k's of events. Recent advancements in subquadratic long-context architectures (e.g., Mamba) offer a promising solution. However, their application to EHR data has not been well-studied. We address this gap by presenting the first systematic evaluation of the effect of context length on modeling EHR data. We find that longer context models improve predictive performance -- our Mamba-based model surpasses the prior state-of-the-art on 9/14 tasks on the EHRSHOT prediction benchmark. For clinical applications, however, model performance alone is insufficient -- robustness to the unique properties of EHR is crucial. Thus, we also evaluate models across three previously underexplored properties of EHR data: (1) the prevalence of "copy-forwarded" diagnoses which creates artificial repetition of tokens within EHR sequences; (2) the irregular time intervals between EHR events which can lead to a wide range of timespans within a context window; and (3) the natural increase in disease complexity over time which makes later tokens in the EHR harder to predict than earlier ones. Stratifying our EHRSHOT results, we find that higher levels of each property correlate negatively with model performance, but that longer context models are more robust to more extreme levels of these properties. Our work highlights the potential for using long-context architectures to model EHR data, and offers a case study for identifying new challenges in modeling sequential data motivated by domains outside of natural language. We release our models and code at: https://github.com/som-shahlab/long_context_clues

The absence of transparency and explainability hinders the clinical adoption of Machine learning (ML) algorithms. Although various methods of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) have been suggested, there is a lack of literature that delves into their practicality and assesses them based on criteria that could foster trust in clinical environments. To address this gap this study evaluates two popular XAI methods used for explaining predictive models in the healthcare context in terms of whether they (i) generate domain-appropriate representation, i.e. coherent with respect to the application task, (ii) impact clinical workflow and (iii) are consistent. To that end, explanations generated at the cohort and patient levels were analysed. The paper reports the first benchmarking of the XAI methods applied to risk prediction models obtained by evaluating the concordance between generated explanations and the trigger of a future clinical deterioration episode recorded by the data collection system. We carried out an analysis using two Electronic Medical Records (EMR) datasets sourced from Australian major hospitals. The findings underscore the limitations of state-of-the-art XAI methods in the clinical context and their potential benefits. We discuss these limitations and contribute to the theoretical development of trustworthy XAI solutions where clinical decision support guides the choice of intervention by suggesting the pattern or drivers for clinical deterioration in the future.

Objective gait assessment in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is limited by the absence of large, diverse, and clinically annotated motion datasets. We introduce CARE-PD, the largest publicly available archive of 3D mesh gait data for PD, and the first multi-site collection spanning 9 cohorts from 8 clinical centers. All recordings (RGB video or motion capture) are converted into anonymized SMPL meshes via a harmonized preprocessing pipeline. CARE-PD supports two key benchmarks: supervised clinical score prediction (estimating Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale, UPDRS, gait scores) and unsupervised motion pretext tasks (2D-to-3D keypoint lifting and full-body 3D reconstruction). Clinical prediction is evaluated under four generalization protocols: within-dataset, cross-dataset, leave-one-dataset-out, and multi-dataset in-domain adaptation. To assess clinical relevance, we compare state-of-the-art motion encoders with a traditional gait-feature baseline, finding that encoders consistently outperform handcrafted features. Pretraining on CARE-PD reduces MPJPE (from 60.8mm to 7.5mm) and boosts PD severity macro-F1 by 17 percentage points, underscoring the value of clinically curated, diverse training data. CARE-PD and all benchmark code are released for non-commercial research at https://neurips2025.care-pd.ca/.

Developing clinical prediction models (e.g., mortality prediction) based on electronic health records (EHRs) typically relies on expert opinion for feature selection and adjusting observation window size. This burdens experts and creates a bottleneck in the development process. We propose Retrieval-Enhanced Medical prediction model (REMed) to address such challenges. REMed can essentially evaluate an unlimited number of clinical events, select the relevant ones, and make predictions. This approach effectively eliminates the need for manual feature selection and enables an unrestricted observation window. We verified these properties through experiments on 27 clinical tasks and two independent cohorts from publicly available EHR datasets, where REMed outperformed other contemporary architectures that aim to handle as many events as possible. Notably, we found that the preferences of REMed align closely with those of medical experts. We expect our approach to significantly expedite the development of EHR prediction models by minimizing clinicians' need for manual involvement.

Despite the outstanding performance of deep learning models in clinical prediction tasks, explainability remains a significant challenge. Inspired by transformer architectures, we introduce the Temporal-Feature Cross Attention Mechanism (TFCAM), a novel deep learning framework designed to capture dynamic interactions among clinical features across time, enhancing both predictive accuracy and interpretability. In an experiment with 1,422 patients with Chronic Kidney Disease, predicting progression to End-Stage Renal Disease, TFCAM outperformed LSTM and RETAIN baselines, achieving an AUROC of 0.95 and an F1-score of 0.69. Beyond performance gains, TFCAM provides multi-level explainability by identifying critical temporal periods, ranking feature importance, and quantifying how features influence each other across time before affecting predictions. Our approach addresses the "black box" limitations of deep learning in healthcare, offering clinicians transparent insights into disease progression mechanisms while maintaining state-of-the-art predictive performance.

Machine learning models are often personalized with categorical attributes that are protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. In this work, we show models that are personalized with group attributes can reduce performance at a group level. We propose formal conditions to ensure the "fair use" of group attributes in prediction tasks by training one additional model -- i.e., collective preference guarantees to ensure that each group who provides personal data will receive a tailored gain in performance in return. We present sufficient conditions to ensure fair use in empirical risk minimization and characterize failure modes that lead to fair use violations due to standard practices in model development and deployment. We present a comprehensive empirical study of fair use in clinical prediction tasks. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of fair use violations in practice and illustrate simple interventions to mitigate their harm.

Machine learning models in health care are often deployed in settings where it is important to protect patient privacy. In such settings, methods for differentially private (DP) learning provide a general-purpose approach to learn models with privacy guarantees. Modern methods for DP learning ensure privacy through mechanisms that censor information judged as too unique. The resulting privacy-preserving models, therefore, neglect information from the tails of a data distribution, resulting in a loss of accuracy that can disproportionately affect small groups. In this paper, we study the effects of DP learning in health care. We use state-of-the-art methods for DP learning to train privacy-preserving models in clinical prediction tasks, including x-ray classification of images and mortality prediction in time series data. We use these models to perform a comprehensive empirical investigation of the tradeoffs between privacy, utility, robustness to dataset shift, and fairness. Our results highlight lesser-known limitations of methods for DP learning in health care, models that exhibit steep tradeoffs between privacy and utility, and models whose predictions are disproportionately influenced by large demographic groups in the training data. We discuss the costs and benefits of differentially private learning in health care.

We introduce a novel contextual embedding model med-gte-hybrid that was derived from the gte-large sentence transformer to extract information from unstructured clinical narratives. Our model tuning strategy for med-gte-hybrid combines contrastive learning and a denoising autoencoder. To evaluate the performance of med-gte-hybrid, we investigate several clinical prediction tasks in large patient cohorts extracted from the MIMIC-IV dataset, including Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) patient prognosis, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) prediction, and patient mortality prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the med-gte-hybrid model improves patient stratification, clustering, and text retrieval, thus outperforms current state-of-the-art models on the Massive Text Embedding Benchmark (MTEB). While some of our evaluations focus on CKD, our hybrid tuning of sentence transformers could be transferred to other medical domains and has the potential to improve clinical decision-making and personalised treatment pathways in various healthcare applications.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

Machine learning models are often personalized with information that is protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. These models use information about people but do not facilitate nor inform their consent. Individuals cannot opt out of reporting personal information to a model, nor tell if they benefit from personalization in the first place. We introduce a family of classification models, called participatory systems, that let individuals opt into personalization at prediction time. We present a model-agnostic algorithm to learn participatory systems for personalization with categorical group attributes. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study of participatory systems in clinical prediction tasks, benchmarking them with common approaches for personalization and imputation. Our results demonstrate that participatory systems can facilitate and inform consent while improving performance and data use across all groups who report personal data.

While the general machine learning (ML) community has benefited from public datasets, tasks, and models, the progress of ML in healthcare has been hampered by a lack of such shared assets. The success of foundation models creates new challenges for healthcare ML by requiring access to shared pretrained models to validate performance benefits. We help address these challenges through three contributions. First, we publish a new dataset, EHRSHOT, which contains deidentified structured data from the electronic health records (EHRs) of 6,739 patients from Stanford Medicine. Unlike MIMIC-III/IV and other popular EHR datasets, EHRSHOT is longitudinal and not restricted to ICU/ED patients. Second, we publish the weights of CLMBR-T-base, a 141M parameter clinical foundation model pretrained on the structured EHR data of 2.57M patients. We are one of the first to fully release such a model for coded EHR data; in contrast, most prior models released for clinical data (e.g. GatorTron, ClinicalBERT) only work with unstructured text and cannot process the rich, structured data within an EHR. We provide an end-to-end pipeline for the community to validate and build upon its performance. Third, we define 15 few-shot clinical prediction tasks, enabling evaluation of foundation models on benefits such as sample efficiency and task adaptation. Our model and dataset are available via a research data use agreement from the Stanford AIMI Center. Code to reproduce our results are available at our Github repo: https://github.com/som-shahlab/ehrshot-benchmark

Transformers have significantly advanced the modeling of Electronic Health Records (EHR), yet their deployment in real-world healthcare is limited by several key challenges. Firstly, the quadratic computational cost and insufficient context length of these models pose significant obstacles for hospitals in processing the extensive medical histories typical in EHR data. Additionally, existing models employ separate finetuning for each clinical task, complicating maintenance in healthcare environments. Moreover, these models focus exclusively on either clinical prediction or EHR forecasting, lacking the flexibility to perform well across both. To overcome these limitations, we introduce EHRMamba, a robust foundation model built on the Mamba architecture. EHRMamba can process sequences up to four times longer than previous models due to its linear computational cost. We also introduce a novel approach to Multitask Prompted Finetuning (MTF) for EHR data, which enables EHRMamba to simultaneously learn multiple clinical tasks in a single finetuning phase, significantly enhancing deployment and cross-task generalization. Furthermore, our model leverages the HL7 FHIR data standard to simplify integration into existing hospital systems. Alongside EHRMamba, we open-source Odyssey, a toolkit designed to support the development and deployment of EHR foundation models, with an emphasis on data standardization and interpretability. Our evaluations on the MIMIC-IV dataset demonstrate that EHRMamba advances state-of-the-art performance across 6 major clinical tasks and excels in EHR forecasting, marking a significant leap forward in the field.

Improving large language models (LLMs) for electronic health record (EHR) reasoning is essential for enabling accurate and generalizable clinical predictions. While LLMs excel at medical text understanding, they underperform on EHR-based prediction tasks due to challenges in modeling temporally structured, high-dimensional data. Existing approaches often rely on hybrid paradigms, where LLMs serve merely as frozen prior retrievers while downstream deep learning (DL) models handle prediction, failing to improve the LLM's intrinsic reasoning capacity and inheriting the generalization limitations of DL models. To this end, we propose EAG-RL, a novel two-stage training framework designed to intrinsically enhance LLMs' EHR reasoning ability through expert attention guidance, where expert EHR models refer to task-specific DL models trained on EHR data. Concretely, EAG-RL first constructs high-quality, stepwise reasoning trajectories using expert-guided Monte Carlo Tree Search to effectively initialize the LLM's policy. Then, EAG-RL further optimizes the policy via reinforcement learning by aligning the LLM's attention with clinically salient features identified by expert EHR models. Extensive experiments on two real-world EHR datasets show that EAG-RL improves the intrinsic EHR reasoning ability of LLMs by an average of 14.62%, while also enhancing robustness to feature perturbations and generalization to unseen clinical domains. These results demonstrate the practical potential of EAG-RL for real-world deployment in clinical prediction tasks. Our code have been available at https://github.com/devilran6/EAG-RL.

Machine learning models are routinely used to support decisions that affect individuals -- be it to screen a patient for a serious illness or to gauge their response to treatment. In these tasks, we are limited to learning models from datasets with noisy labels. In this paper, we study the instance-level impact of learning under label noise. We introduce a notion of regret for this regime, which measures the number of unforeseen mistakes due to noisy labels. We show that standard approaches to learning under label noise can return models that perform well at a population-level while subjecting individuals to a lottery of mistakes. We present a versatile approach to estimate the likelihood of mistakes at the individual-level from a noisy dataset by training models over plausible realizations of datasets without label noise. This is supported by a comprehensive empirical study of label noise in clinical prediction tasks. Our results reveal how failure to anticipate mistakes can compromise model reliability and adoption -- we demonstrate how we can address these challenges by anticipating and avoiding regretful decisions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a heavy burden to the healthcare system worldwide and caused huge social disruption and economic loss. Many deep learning models have been proposed to conduct clinical predictive tasks such as mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Despite their initial success in certain clinical applications, there is currently a lack of benchmarking results to achieve a fair comparison so that we can select the optimal model for clinical use. Furthermore, there is a discrepancy between the formulation of traditional prediction tasks and real-world clinical practice in intensive care. To fill these gaps, we propose two clinical prediction tasks, Outcome-specific length-of-stay prediction and Early mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units. The two tasks are adapted from the naive length-of-stay and mortality prediction tasks to accommodate the clinical practice for COVID-19 patients. We propose fair, detailed, open-source data-preprocessing pipelines and evaluate 17 state-of-the-art predictive models on two tasks, including 5 machine learning models, 6 basic deep learning models and 6 deep learning predictive models specifically designed for EHR data. We provide benchmarking results using data from two real-world COVID-19 EHR datasets. One dataset is publicly available without needing any inquiry and another dataset can be accessed on request. We provide fair, reproducible benchmarking results for two tasks. We deploy all experiment results and models on an online platform. We also allow clinicians and researchers to upload their data to the platform and get quick prediction results using our trained models. We hope our efforts can further facilitate deep learning and machine learning research for COVID-19 predictive modeling.

Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.

Despite being self-supervised, protein language models have shown remarkable performance in fundamental biological tasks such as predicting impact of genetic variation on protein structure and function. The effectiveness of these models on diverse set of tasks suggests that they learn meaningful representations of fitness landscape that can be useful for downstream clinical applications. Here, we interrogate the use of these language models in characterizing known pathogenic mutations in curated, medically actionable genes through an exhaustive search of putative compensatory mutations on each variant's genetic background. Systematic analysis of the predicted effects of these compensatory mutations reveal unappreciated structural features of proteins that are missed by other structure predictors like AlphaFold. While deep mutational scan experiments provide an unbiased estimate of the mutational landscape, we encourage the community to generate and curate rescue mutation experiments to inform the design of more sophisticated co-masking strategies and leverage large language models more effectively for downstream clinical prediction tasks.

Clinical diagnosis prediction models, when provided with a patient's medical history, aim to detect potential diseases early, facilitating timely intervention and improving prognostic outcomes. However, the inherent scarcity of patient data and large disease candidate space often pose challenges in developing satisfactory models for this intricate task. The exploration of leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for encapsulating clinical decision processes has been limited. We introduce MERA, a clinical diagnosis prediction model that bridges pertaining natural language knowledge with medical practice. We apply hierarchical contrastive learning on a disease candidate ranking list to alleviate the large decision space issue. With concept memorization through fine-tuning, we bridge the natural language clinical knowledge with medical codes. Experimental results on MIMIC-III and IV datasets show that MERA achieves the state-of-the-art diagnosis prediction performance and dramatically elevates the diagnosis prediction capabilities of generative LMs.

The approval success rate of drug candidates is very low with the majority of failure due to safety and efficacy. Increasingly available high dimensional information on targets, drug molecules and indications provides an opportunity for ML methods to integrate multiple data modalities and better predict clinically promising drug targets. Notably, drug targets with human genetics evidence are shown to have better odds to succeed. However, a recent tensor factorization-based approach found that additional information on targets and indications might not necessarily improve the predictive accuracy. Here we revisit this approach by integrating different types of human genetics evidence collated from publicly available sources to support each target-indication pair. We use Bayesian tensor factorization to show that models incorporating all available human genetics evidence (rare disease, gene burden, common disease) modestly improves the clinical outcome prediction over models using single line of genetics evidence. We provide additional insight into the relative predictive power of different types of human genetics evidence for predicting the success of clinical outcomes.

Adapting pretrained language models to novel domains, such as clinical applications, traditionally involves retraining their entire set of parameters. Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques for fine-tuning language models significantly reduce computational requirements by selectively fine-tuning small subsets of parameters. In this study, we propose a two-step PEFT framework and evaluate it in the clinical domain. Our approach combines a specialised PEFT adapter layer designed for clinical domain adaptation with another adapter specialised for downstream tasks. We evaluate the framework on multiple clinical outcome prediction datasets, comparing it to clinically trained language models. Our framework achieves a better AUROC score averaged across all clinical downstream tasks compared to clinical language models. In particular, we observe large improvements of 4-5% AUROC in large-scale multilabel classification tasks, such as diagnoses and procedures classification. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide an extensive empirical analysis of the interplay between PEFT techniques and domain adaptation in an important real-world domain of clinical applications.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to clinical decision-making. However, their potential to exhibit bias poses significant risks to clinical equity. Currently, there is a lack of benchmarks that systematically evaluate such clinical bias in LLMs. While in downstream tasks, some biases of LLMs can be avoided such as by instructing the model to answer "I'm not sure...", the internal bias hidden within the model still lacks deep studies. We introduce CLIMB (shorthand for A Benchmark of Clinical Bias in Large Language Models), a pioneering comprehensive benchmark to evaluate both intrinsic (within LLMs) and extrinsic (on downstream tasks) bias in LLMs for clinical decision tasks. Notably, for intrinsic bias, we introduce a novel metric, AssocMAD, to assess the disparities of LLMs across multiple demographic groups. Additionally, we leverage counterfactual intervention to evaluate extrinsic bias in a task of clinical diagnosis prediction. Our experiments across popular and medically adapted LLMs, particularly from the Mistral and LLaMA families, unveil prevalent behaviors with both intrinsic and extrinsic bias. This work underscores the critical need to mitigate clinical bias and sets a new standard for future evaluations of LLMs' clinical bias.

The long-term effects of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2, known as PASC, pose a significant challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Accurate identification of progression events, such as hospitalization and reinfection, is essential for effective patient management and resource allocation. However, traditional models trained on structured data struggle to capture the nuanced progression of PASC. In this study, we introduce the first publicly available cohort of 18 PASC patients, with text time series features based on Large Language Model Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct and clinical risk annotated by clinical expert. We propose an Active Attention Network to predict the clinical risk and identify progression events related to the risk. By integrating human expertise with active learning, we aim to enhance clinical risk prediction accuracy and enable progression events identification with fewer number of annotation. The ultimate goal is to improves patient care and decision-making for SARS-CoV-2 patient.

Cardiac biosignals, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), are of paramount importance for the diagnosis, prevention, and management of cardiovascular diseases, and have been extensively used in a variety of clinical tasks. Conventional deep learning approaches for analyzing these signals typically rely on homogeneous datasets and static bespoke models, limiting their robustness and generalizability across diverse clinical settings and acquisition protocols. In this study, we present a cardiac sensing foundation model (CSFM) that leverages advanced transformer architectures and a generative, masked pretraining strategy to learn unified representations from vast, heterogeneous health records. Our model is pretrained on an innovative multi-modal integration of data from multiple large-scale datasets (including MIMIC-III-WDB, MIMIC-IV-ECG, and CODE), comprising cardiac signals and the corresponding clinical or machine-generated text reports from approximately 1.7 million individuals. We demonstrate that the embeddings derived from our CSFM not only serve as effective feature extractors across diverse cardiac sensing scenarios, but also enable seamless transfer learning across varying input configurations and sensor modalities. Extensive evaluations across diagnostic tasks, demographic information recognition, vital sign measurement, clinical outcome prediction, and ECG question answering reveal that CSFM consistently outperforms traditional one-modal-one-task approaches. Notably, CSFM exhibits robust performance across multiple ECG lead configurations from standard 12-lead systems to single-lead setups, and in scenarios where only ECG, only PPG, or a combination thereof is available. These findings highlight the potential of CSFM as a versatile and scalable solution, for comprehensive cardiac monitoring.

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

Predicting disease trajectories from electronic health records (EHRs) is a complex task due to major challenges such as data non-stationarity, high granularity of medical codes, and integration of multimodal data. EHRs contain both structured data, such as diagnostic codes, and unstructured data, such as clinical notes, which hold essential information often overlooked. Current models, primarily based on structured data, struggle to capture the complete medical context of patients, resulting in a loss of valuable information. To address this issue, we propose an approach that integrates unstructured clinical notes into transformer-based deep learning models for sequential disease prediction. This integration enriches the representation of patients' medical histories, thereby improving the accuracy of diagnosis predictions. Experiments on MIMIC-IV datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms traditional models relying solely on structured data.

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

The use of deep neural models for diagnosis prediction from clinical text has shown promising results. However, in clinical practice such models must not only be accurate, but provide doctors with interpretable and helpful results. We introduce ProtoPatient, a novel method based on prototypical networks and label-wise attention with both of these abilities. ProtoPatient makes predictions based on parts of the text that are similar to prototypical patients - providing justifications that doctors understand. We evaluate the model on two publicly available clinical datasets and show that it outperforms existing baselines. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations with medical doctors further demonstrate that the model provides valuable explanations for clinical decision support.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and multi-agent systems have shown impressive capabilities in natural language tasks but face challenges in clinical trial applications, primarily due to limited access to external knowledge. Recognizing the potential of advanced clinical trial tools that aggregate and predict based on the latest medical data, we propose an integrated solution to enhance their accessibility and utility. We introduce Clinical Agent System (ClinicalAgent), a clinical multi-agent system designed for clinical trial tasks, leveraging GPT-4, multi-agent architectures, LEAST-TO-MOST, and ReAct reasoning technology. This integration not only boosts LLM performance in clinical contexts but also introduces novel functionalities. The proposed method achieves competitive predictive performance in clinical trial outcome prediction (0.7908 PR-AUC), obtaining a 0.3326 improvement over the standard prompt Method. Publicly available code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ClinicalAgent-6671.

Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4\% on PR-AUC.

International Classification of Disease (ICD) coding procedure which refers to tagging medical notes with diagnosis codes has been shown to be effective and crucial to the billing system in medical sector. Currently, ICD codes are assigned to a clinical note manually which is likely to cause many errors. Moreover, training skilled coders also requires time and human resources. Therefore, automating the ICD code determination process is an important task. With the advancement of artificial intelligence theory and computational hardware, machine learning approach has emerged as a suitable solution to automate this process. In this project, we apply a transformer-based architecture to capture the interdependence among the tokens of a document and then use a code-wise attention mechanism to learn code-specific representations of the entire document. Finally, they are fed to separate dense layers for corresponding code prediction. Furthermore, to handle the imbalance in the code frequency of clinical datasets, we employ a label distribution aware margin (LDAM) loss function. The experimental results on the MIMIC-III dataset show that our proposed model outperforms other baselines by a significant margin. In particular, our best setting achieves a micro-AUC score of 0.923 compared to 0.868 of bidirectional recurrent neural networks. We also show that by using the code-wise attention mechanism, the model can provide more insights about its prediction, and thus it can support clinicians to make reliable decisions. Our code is available online (https://github.com/biplob1ly/TransICD)

The use of large pretrained neural networks to create contextualized word embeddings has drastically improved performance on several natural language processing (NLP) tasks. These computationally expensive models have begun to be applied to domain-specific NLP tasks such as re-hospitalization prediction from clinical notes. This paper demonstrates that using large pretrained models produces excellent results on common learning analytics tasks. Pre-training deep language models using student forum data from a wide array of online courses improves performance beyond the state of the art on three text classification tasks. We also show that a smaller, distilled version of our model produces the best results on two of the three tasks while limiting computational cost. We make both models available to the research community at large.

Depression is a common mental disorder. Automatic depression detection tools using speech, enabled by machine learning, help early screening of depression. This paper addresses two limitations that may hinder the clinical implementations of such tools: noise resulting from segment-level labelling and a lack of model interpretability. We propose a bi-modal speech-level transformer to avoid segment-level labelling and introduce a hierarchical interpretation approach to provide both speech-level and sentence-level interpretations, based on gradient-weighted attention maps derived from all attention layers to track interactions between input features. We show that the proposed model outperforms a model that learns at a segment level (p=0.854, r=0.947, F1=0.947 compared to p=0.732, r=0.808, F1=0.768). For model interpretation, using one true positive sample, we show which sentences within a given speech are most relevant to depression detection; and which text tokens and Mel-spectrogram regions within these sentences are most relevant to depression detection. These interpretations allow clinicians to verify the validity of predictions made by depression detection tools, promoting their clinical implementations.

Clinical calculators play a vital role in healthcare by offering accurate evidence-based predictions for various purposes such as prognosis. Nevertheless, their widespread utilization is frequently hindered by usability challenges, poor dissemination, and restricted functionality. Augmenting large language models with extensive collections of clinical calculators presents an opportunity to overcome these obstacles and improve workflow efficiency, but the scalability of the manual curation process poses a significant challenge. In response, we introduce AgentMD, a novel language agent capable of curating and applying clinical calculators across various clinical contexts. Using the published literature, AgentMD has automatically curated a collection of 2,164 diverse clinical calculators with executable functions and structured documentation, collectively named RiskCalcs. Manual evaluations show that RiskCalcs tools achieve an accuracy of over 80% on three quality metrics. At inference time, AgentMD can automatically select and apply the relevant RiskCalcs tools given any patient description. On the newly established RiskQA benchmark, AgentMD significantly outperforms chain-of-thought prompting with GPT-4 (87.7% vs. 40.9% in accuracy). Additionally, we also applied AgentMD to real-world clinical notes for analyzing both population-level and risk-level patient characteristics. In summary, our study illustrates the utility of language agents augmented with clinical calculators for healthcare analytics and patient care.

In this work, we introduce Multiple Embedding Model for EHR (MEME), an approach that views Electronic Health Records (EHR) as multimodal data. This approach incorporates "pseudo-notes", textual representations of tabular EHR concepts such as diagnoses and medications, and allows us to effectively employ Large Language Models (LLMs) for EHR representation. This framework also adopts a multimodal approach, embedding each EHR modality separately. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MEME by applying it to several tasks within the Emergency Department across multiple hospital systems. Our findings show that MEME surpasses the performance of both single modality embedding methods and traditional machine learning approaches. However, we also observe notable limitations in generalizability across hospital institutions for all tested models.

Predicting cancer treatment outcomes requires models that are both accurate and interpretable, particularly in the presence of heterogeneous clinical data. While large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in biomedical NLP, they often lack structured reasoning capabilities critical for high-stakes decision support. We present a unified, multi-task learning framework that aligns autoregressive LLMs with clinical reasoning for outcome prediction on the MSK-CHORD dataset. Our models are trained to jointly perform binary survival classification, continuous survival time regression, and natural language rationale generation. We evaluate three alignment strategies: (1) standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT), (2) SFT with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting to elicit step-by-step reasoning, and (3) Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a reinforcement learning method that aligns model outputs to expert-derived reasoning trajectories. Experiments with LLaMa3-8B and Med42-8B backbones demonstrate that CoT prompting improves F1 by +6.0 and reduces MAE by 12%, while GRPO achieves state-of-the-art interpretability and predictive performance across BLEU, ROUGE, and BERTScore. We further show that existing biomedical LLMs often fail to produce valid reasoning traces due to architectural constraints. Our findings underscore the importance of reasoning-aware alignment in multi-task clinical modeling and set a new benchmark for interpretable, trustworthy LLMs in precision oncology.

The demand for emergency department (ED) services is increasing across the globe, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical triage and risk assessment have become increasingly challenging due to the shortage of medical resources and the strain on hospital infrastructure caused by the pandemic. As a result of the widespread use of electronic health records (EHRs), we now have access to a vast amount of clinical data, which allows us to develop predictive models and decision support systems to address these challenges. To date, however, there are no widely accepted benchmark ED triage prediction models based on large-scale public EHR data. An open-source benchmarking platform would streamline research workflows by eliminating cumbersome data preprocessing, and facilitate comparisons among different studies and methodologies. In this paper, based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV Emergency Department (MIMIC-IV-ED) database, we developed a publicly available benchmark suite for ED triage predictive models and created a benchmark dataset that contains over 400,000 ED visits from 2011 to 2019. We introduced three ED-based outcomes (hospitalization, critical outcomes, and 72-hour ED reattendance) and implemented a variety of popular methodologies, ranging from machine learning methods to clinical scoring systems. We evaluated and compared the performance of these methods against benchmark tasks. Our codes are open-source, allowing anyone with MIMIC-IV-ED data access to perform the same steps in data processing, benchmark model building, and experiments. This study provides future researchers with insights, suggestions, and protocols for managing raw data and developing risk triaging tools for emergency care.

Clinical predictive models often rely on patients' electronic health records (EHR), but integrating medical knowledge to enhance predictions and decision-making is challenging. This is because personalized predictions require personalized knowledge graphs (KGs), which are difficult to generate from patient EHR data. To address this, we propose GraphCare, an open-world framework that uses external KGs to improve EHR-based predictions. Our method extracts knowledge from large language models (LLMs) and external biomedical KGs to build patient-specific KGs, which are then used to train our proposed Bi-attention AugmenTed (BAT) graph neural network (GNN) for healthcare predictions. On two public datasets, MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, GraphCare surpasses baselines in four vital healthcare prediction tasks: mortality, readmission, length of stay (LOS), and drug recommendation. On MIMIC-III, it boosts AUROC by 17.6\% and 6.6\% for mortality and readmission, and F1-score by 7.9\% and 10.8\% for LOS and drug recommendation, respectively. Notably, GraphCare demonstrates a substantial edge in scenarios with limited data availability. Our findings highlight the potential of using external KGs in healthcare prediction tasks and demonstrate the promise of GraphCare in generating personalized KGs for promoting personalized medicine.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Clinical notes contain rich data, which is unexploited in predictive modeling compared to structured data. In this work, we developed a new text representation Clinical XLNet for clinical notes which also leverages the temporal information of the sequence of the notes. We evaluated our models on prolonged mechanical ventilation prediction problem and our experiments demonstrated that Clinical XLNet outperforms the best baselines consistently.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

Clinical notes contain information about patients that goes beyond structured data like lab values and medications. However, clinical notes have been underused relative to structured data, because notes are high-dimensional and sparse. This work develops and evaluates representations of clinical notes using bidirectional transformers (ClinicalBERT). ClinicalBERT uncovers high-quality relationships between medical concepts as judged by humans. ClinicalBert outperforms baselines on 30-day hospital readmission prediction using both discharge summaries and the first few days of notes in the intensive care unit. Code and model parameters are available.

PURPOSE: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) entails high morbidity and mortality rates. Convolutional neural networks (CNN), a form of deep learning, are capable of generating highly accurate predictions from imaging data. Our objective was to predict mortality in SAH patients by processing the initial CT scan on a CNN based algorithm. METHODS: Retrospective multicentric study of a consecutive cohort of patients with SAH between 2011-2022. Demographic, clinical and radiological variables were analyzed. Pre-processed baseline CT scan images were used as the input for training a CNN using AUCMEDI Framework. Our model's architecture leverages the DenseNet-121 structure, employing transfer learning principles. The output variable was mortality in the first three months. Performance of the model was evaluated by statistical parameters conventionally used in studies involving artificial intelligence methods. RESULTS: Images from 219 patients were processed, 175 for training and validation of the CNN and 44 for its evaluation. 52%(115/219) of patients were female, and the median age was 58(SD=13.06) years. 18.5%(39/219) were idiopathic SAH. Mortality rate was 28.5%(63/219). The model showed good accuracy at predicting mortality in SAH patients exclusively using the images of the initial CT scan (Accuracy=74%, F1=75% and AUC=82%). CONCLUSION: Modern image processing techniques based on AI and CNN make possible to predict mortality in SAH patients with high accuracy using CT scan images as the only input. These models might be optimized by including more data and patients resulting in better training, development and performance on tasks which are beyond the skills of conventional clinical knowledge.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in natural language understanding and generation, but the quality bar for medical and clinical applications is high. Today, attempts to assess models' clinical knowledge typically rely on automated evaluations on limited benchmarks. There is no standard to evaluate model predictions and reasoning across a breadth of tasks. To address this, we present MultiMedQA, a benchmark combining six existing open question answering datasets spanning professional medical exams, research, and consumer queries; and HealthSearchQA, a new free-response dataset of medical questions searched online. We propose a framework for human evaluation of model answers along multiple axes including factuality, precision, possible harm, and bias. In addition, we evaluate PaLM (a 540-billion parameter LLM) and its instruction-tuned variant, Flan-PaLM, on MultiMedQA. Using a combination of prompting strategies, Flan-PaLM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on every MultiMedQA multiple-choice dataset (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, MMLU clinical topics), including 67.6% accuracy on MedQA (US Medical License Exam questions), surpassing prior state-of-the-art by over 17%. However, human evaluation reveals key gaps in Flan-PaLM responses. To resolve this we introduce instruction prompt tuning, a parameter-efficient approach for aligning LLMs to new domains using a few exemplars. The resulting model, Med-PaLM, performs encouragingly, but remains inferior to clinicians. We show that comprehension, recall of knowledge, and medical reasoning improve with model scale and instruction prompt tuning, suggesting the potential utility of LLMs in medicine. Our human evaluations reveal important limitations of today's models, reinforcing the importance of both evaluation frameworks and method development in creating safe, helpful LLM models for clinical applications.

Multimodal pathology-genomic analysis is critical for cancer survival prediction. However, existing approaches predominantly integrate formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) slides with genomic data, while neglecting the availability of other preservation slides, such as Fresh Froze (FF) slides. Moreover, as the high-resolution spatial nature of pathology data tends to dominate the cross-modality fusion process, it hinders effective multimodal fusion and leads to modality imbalance challenges between pathology and genomics. These methods also typically require complete data modalities, limiting their clinical applicability with incomplete modalities, such as missing either pathology or genomic data. In this paper, we propose a multimodal survival prediction framework that leverages hypergraph learning to effectively integrate multi-WSI information and cross-modality interactions between pathology slides and genomics data while addressing modality imbalance. In addition, we introduce a memory mechanism that stores previously learned paired pathology-genomic features and dynamically compensates for incomplete modalities. Experiments on five TCGA datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms advanced methods by over 2.3% in C-Index. Under incomplete modality scenarios, our approach surpasses pathology-only (3.3%) and gene-only models (7.9%). Code: https://github.com/MCPathology/M2Surv

Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising pre-screening tool, improving early disease detection and providing enhanced healthcare access for underprivileged communities. The early diagnosis of various diseases continues to be a significant challenge in healthcare, primarily due to the nonspecific nature of early symptoms, the shortage of expert medical practitioners, and the need for prolonged clinical evaluations, all of which can delay treatment and adversely affect patient outcomes. With impressive accuracy in prediction across a range of diseases, LLMs have the potential to revolutionize clinical pre-screening and decision-making for various medical conditions. In this work, we study the diagnostic capability of LLMs for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) with real world patients data. Patient data was collected alongside diagnoses from medical experts, and the performance of LLMs was evaluated in comparison to expert diagnoses for RA disease prediction. We notice an interesting pattern in disease diagnosis and find an unexpected misalignment between prediction and explanation. We conduct a series of multi-round analyses using different LLM agents. The best-performing model accurately predicts rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diseases approximately 95\% of the time. However, when medical experts evaluated the reasoning generated by the model, they found that nearly 68\% of the reasoning was incorrect. This study highlights a clear misalignment between LLMs high prediction accuracy and its flawed reasoning, raising important questions about relying on LLM explanations in clinical settings. LLMs provide incorrect reasoning to arrive at the correct answer for RA disease diagnosis.

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

Predicting in-hospital mortality for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is key to final clinical outcomes. AI has shown advantaged accuracy but suffers from the lack of explainability. To address this issue, this paper proposes an eXplainable Multimodal Mortality Predictor (X-MMP) approaching an efficient, explainable AI solution for predicting in-hospital mortality via multimodal ICU data. We employ multimodal learning in our framework, which can receive heterogeneous inputs from clinical data and make decisions. Furthermore, we introduce an explainable method, namely Layer-Wise Propagation to Transformer, as a proper extension of the LRP method to Transformers, producing explanations over multimodal inputs and revealing the salient features attributed to prediction. Moreover, the contribution of each modality to clinical outcomes can be visualized, assisting clinicians in understanding the reasoning behind decision-making. We construct a multimodal dataset based on MIMIC-III and MIMIC-III Waveform Database Matched Subset. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework can achieve reasonable interpretation with competitive prediction accuracy. In particular, our framework can be easily transferred to other clinical tasks, which facilitates the discovery of crucial factors in healthcare research.

Disease risk prediction has attracted increasing attention in the field of modern healthcare, especially with the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Electronic health records (EHRs), which contain heterogeneous patient information, are widely used in disease risk prediction tasks. One challenge of applying AI models for risk prediction lies in generating interpretable evidence to support the prediction results while retaining the prediction ability. In order to address this problem, we propose the method of jointly embedding words and labels whereby attention modules learn the weights of words from medical notes according to their relevance to the names of risk prediction labels. This approach boosts interpretability by employing an attention mechanism and including the names of prediction tasks in the model. However, its application is only limited to the handling of textual inputs such as medical notes. In this paper, we propose a label dependent attention model LDAM to 1) improve the interpretability by exploiting Clinical-BERT (a biomedical language model pre-trained on a large clinical corpus) to encode biomedically meaningful features and labels jointly; 2) extend the idea of joint embedding to the processing of time-series data, and develop a multi-modal learning framework for integrating heterogeneous information from medical notes and time-series health status indicators. To demonstrate our method, we apply LDAM to the MIMIC-III dataset to predict different disease risks. We evaluate our method both quantitatively and qualitatively. Specifically, the predictive power of LDAM will be shown, and case studies will be carried out to illustrate its interpretability.

Current medical language models, adapted from large language models (LLMs), typically predict ICD code-based diagnosis from electronic health records (EHRs) because these labels are readily available. However, ICD codes do not capture the nuanced, context-rich reasoning clinicians use for diagnosis. Clinicians synthesize diverse patient data and reference clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) to make evidence-based decisions. This misalignment limits the clinical utility of existing models. We introduce GARMLE-G, a Generation-Augmented Retrieval framework that grounds medical language model outputs in authoritative CPGs. Unlike conventional Retrieval-Augmented Generation based approaches, GARMLE-G enables hallucination-free outputs by directly retrieving authoritative guideline content without relying on model-generated text. It (1) integrates LLM predictions with EHR data to create semantically rich queries, (2) retrieves relevant CPG knowledge snippets via embedding similarity, and (3) fuses guideline content with model output to generate clinically aligned recommendations. A prototype system for hypertension diagnosis was developed and evaluated on multiple metrics, demonstrating superior retrieval precision, semantic relevance, and clinical guideline adherence compared to RAG-based baselines, while maintaining a lightweight architecture suitable for localized healthcare deployment. This work provides a scalable, low-cost, and hallucination-free method for grounding medical language models in evidence-based clinical practice, with strong potential for broader clinical deployment.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities in healthcare for improved patient care, clinical decision-making, and enhancement of physician and administrator workflows. However, the potential of these models importantly depends on their ability to generalize effectively across clinical environments and populations, a challenge often underestimated in early development. To better understand reasons for these challenges and inform mitigation approaches, we evaluated ClinicLLM, an LLM trained on [HOSPITAL]'s clinical notes, analyzing its performance on 30-day all-cause readmission prediction focusing on variability across hospitals and patient characteristics. We found poorer generalization particularly in hospitals with fewer samples, among patients with government and unspecified insurance, the elderly, and those with high comorbidities. To understand reasons for lack of generalization, we investigated sample sizes for fine-tuning, note content (number of words per note), patient characteristics (comorbidity level, age, insurance type, borough), and health system aspects (hospital, all-cause 30-day readmission, and mortality rates). We used descriptive statistics and supervised classification to identify features. We found that, along with sample size, patient age, number of comorbidities, and the number of words in notes are all important factors related to generalization. Finally, we compared local fine-tuning (hospital specific), instance-based augmented fine-tuning and cluster-based fine-tuning for improving generalization. Among these, local fine-tuning proved most effective, increasing AUC by 0.25% to 11.74% (most helpful in settings with limited data). Overall, this study provides new insights for enhancing the deployment of large language models in the societally important domain of healthcare, and improving their performance for broader populations.

Accurately predicting immunotherapy response in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) remains a critical unmet need. Existing radiomics and deep learning-based predictive models rely primarily on pre-treatment imaging to predict categorical response outcomes, limiting their ability to capture the complex morphological and textural transformations induced by immunotherapy. This study introduces ImmunoDiff, an anatomy-aware diffusion model designed to synthesize post-treatment CT scans from baseline imaging while incorporating clinically relevant constraints. The proposed framework integrates anatomical priors, specifically lobar and vascular structures, to enhance fidelity in CT synthesis. Additionally, we introduce a novel cbi-Adapter, a conditioning module that ensures pairwise-consistent multimodal integration of imaging and clinical data embeddings, to refine the generative process. Additionally, a clinical variable conditioning mechanism is introduced, leveraging demographic data, blood-based biomarkers, and PD-L1 expression to refine the generative process. Evaluations on an in-house NSCLC cohort treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors demonstrate a 21.24% improvement in balanced accuracy for response prediction and a 0.03 increase in c-index for survival prediction. Code will be released soon.

Clinical texts, represented in electronic medical records (EMRs), contain rich medical information and are essential for disease prediction, personalised information recommendation, clinical decision support, and medication pattern mining and measurement. Relation extractions between medication mentions and temporal information can further help clinicians better understand the patients' treatment history. To evaluate the performances of deep learning (DL) and large language models (LLMs) in medication extraction and temporal relations classification, we carry out an empirical investigation of MedTem project using several advanced learning structures including BiLSTM-CRF and CNN-BiLSTM for a clinical domain named entity recognition (NER), and BERT-CNN for temporal relation extraction (RE), in addition to the exploration of different word embedding techniques. Furthermore, we also designed a set of post-processing roles to generate structured output on medications and the temporal relation. Our experiments show that CNN-BiLSTM slightly wins the BiLSTM-CRF model on the i2b2-2009 clinical NER task yielding 75.67, 77.83, and 78.17 for precision, recall, and F1 scores using Macro Average. BERT-CNN model also produced reasonable evaluation scores 64.48, 67.17, and 65.03 for P/R/F1 using Macro Avg on the temporal relation extraction test set from i2b2-2012 challenges. Code and Tools from MedTem will be hosted at https://github.com/HECTA-UoM/MedTem

Medical applications of machine learning (ML) have experienced a surge in popularity in recent years. The intensive care unit (ICU) is a natural habitat for ML given the abundance of available data from electronic health records. Models have been proposed to address numerous ICU prediction tasks like the early detection of complications. While authors frequently report state-of-the-art performance, it is challenging to verify claims of superiority. Datasets and code are not always published, and cohort definitions, preprocessing pipelines, and training setups are difficult to reproduce. This work introduces Yet Another ICU Benchmark (YAIB), a modular framework that allows researchers to define reproducible and comparable clinical ML experiments; we offer an end-to-end solution from cohort definition to model evaluation. The framework natively supports most open-access ICU datasets (MIMIC III/IV, eICU, HiRID, AUMCdb) and is easily adaptable to future ICU datasets. Combined with a transparent preprocessing pipeline and extensible training code for multiple ML and deep learning models, YAIB enables unified model development. Our benchmark comes with five predefined established prediction tasks (mortality, acute kidney injury, sepsis, kidney function, and length of stay) developed in collaboration with clinicians. Adding further tasks is straightforward by design. Using YAIB, we demonstrate that the choice of dataset, cohort definition, and preprocessing have a major impact on the prediction performance - often more so than model class - indicating an urgent need for YAIB as a holistic benchmarking tool. We provide our work to the clinical ML community to accelerate method development and enable real-world clinical implementations. Software Repository: https://github.com/rvandewater/YAIB.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

Objective: To transform heterogeneous clinical data from electronic health records into clinically meaningful constructed features using data driven method that rely, in part, on temporal relations among data. Materials and Methods: The clinically meaningful representations of medical concepts and patients are the key for health analytic applications. Most of existing approaches directly construct features mapped to raw data (e.g., ICD or CPT codes), or utilize some ontology mapping such as SNOMED codes. However, none of the existing approaches leverage EHR data directly for learning such concept representation. We propose a new way to represent heterogeneous medical concepts (e.g., diagnoses, medications and procedures) based on co-occurrence patterns in longitudinal electronic health records. The intuition behind the method is to map medical concepts that are co-occuring closely in time to similar concept vectors so that their distance will be small. We also derive a simple method to construct patient vectors from the related medical concept vectors. Results: For qualitative evaluation, we study similar medical concepts across diagnosis, medication and procedure. In quantitative evaluation, our proposed representation significantly improves the predictive modeling performance for onset of heart failure (HF), where classification methods (e.g. logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine and K-nearest neighbors) achieve up to 23% improvement in area under the ROC curve (AUC) using this proposed representation. Conclusion: We proposed an effective method for patient and medical concept representation learning. The resulting representation can map relevant concepts together and also improves predictive modeling performance.

Patient recruitment is challenging for clinical trials. We introduce TrialGPT, an end-to-end framework for zero-shot patient-to-trial matching with large language models. TrialGPT comprises three modules: it first performs large-scale filtering to retrieve candidate trials (TrialGPT-Retrieval); then predicts criterion-level patient eligibility (TrialGPT-Matching); and finally generates trial-level scores (TrialGPT-Ranking). We evaluate TrialGPT on three cohorts of 183 synthetic patients with over 75,000 trial annotations. TrialGPT-Retrieval can recall over 90% of relevant trials using less than 6% of the initial collection. Manual evaluations on 1,015 patient-criterion pairs show that TrialGPT-Matching achieves an accuracy of 87.3% with faithful explanations, close to the expert performance. The TrialGPT-Ranking scores are highly correlated with human judgments and outperform the best-competing models by 43.8% in ranking and excluding trials. Furthermore, our user study reveals that TrialGPT can reduce the screening time by 42.6% in patient recruitment. Overall, these results have demonstrated promising opportunities for patient-to-trial matching with TrialGPT.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

The global cost of drug discovery and development exceeds $200 billion annually. The main results of drug discovery and development are the outcomes of clinical trials, which directly influence the regulatory approval of new drug candidates and ultimately affect patient outcomes. Despite their significance, large-scale, high-quality clinical trial outcome data are not readily available to the public. Suppose a large clinical trial outcome dataset is provided; machine learning researchers can potentially develop accurate prediction models using past trials and outcome labels, which could help prioritize and optimize therapeutic programs, ultimately benefiting patients. This paper introduces Clinical Trial Outcome (CTO) dataset, the largest trial outcome dataset with around 479K clinical trials, aggregating outcomes from multiple sources of weakly supervised labels, minimizing the noise from individual sources, and eliminating the need for human annotation. These sources include large language model (LLM) decisions on trial-related documents, news headline sentiments, stock prices of trial sponsors, trial linkages across phases, and other signals such as patient dropout rates and adverse events. CTO's labels show unprecedented agreement with supervised clinical trial outcome labels from test split of the supervised TOP dataset, with a 91 F1.

Lung cancer is responsible for 21% of cancer deaths in the UK and five-year survival rates are heavily influenced by the stage the cancer was identified at. Recent studies have demonstrated the capability of AI methods for accurate and early diagnosis of lung cancer from routine scans. However, this evidence has not translated into clinical practice with one barrier being a lack of interpretable models. This study investigates the application Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), a type of generative AI model, to lung cancer lesions. Proposed models were trained on lesions extracted from 3D CT scans in the LIDC-IDRI public dataset. Latent vector representations of 2D slices produced by the VAEs were explored through clustering to justify their quality and used in an MLP classifier model for lung cancer diagnosis, the best model achieved state-of-the-art metrics of AUC 0.98 and 93.1% accuracy. Cluster analysis shows the VAE latent space separates the dataset of malignant and benign lesions based on meaningful feature components including tumour size, shape, patient and malignancy class. We also include a comparative analysis of the standard Gaussian VAE (GVAE) and the more recent Dirichlet VAE (DirVAE), which replaces the prior with a Dirichlet distribution to encourage a more explainable latent space with disentangled feature representation. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for latent space traversals corresponding to clinically meaningful feature changes.

With an estimated 160,000 deaths in 2018, lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Lung cancer CT screening has been shown to reduce mortality by up to 40% and is now included in US screening guidelines. Reducing the high error rates in lung cancer screening is imperative because of the high clinical and financial costs caused by diagnosis mistakes. Despite the use of standards for radiological diagnosis, persistent inter-grader variability and incomplete characterization of comprehensive imaging findings remain as limitations of current methods. These limitations suggest opportunities for more sophisticated systems to improve performance and inter-reader consistency. In this report, we reproduce a state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm for lung cancer risk prediction. Our model predicts malignancy probability and risk bucket classification from lung CT studies. This allows for risk categorization of patients being screened and suggests the most appropriate surveillance and management. Combining our solution high accuracy, consistency and fully automated nature, our approach may enable highly efficient screening procedures and accelerate the adoption of lung cancer screening.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease impairing a person's ability to perform day to day activities. The clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease are characterized by heterogeneity in age, disease span, progression rate, impairment of memory and cognitive abilities. Due to these variabilities, personalized care and treatment planning, as well as patient counseling about their individual progression is limited. Recent developments in machine learning to detect hidden patterns in complex, multi-dimensional datasets provides significant opportunities to address this critical need. In this work, we use unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches for subtype identification and prediction. We apply machine learning methods to the extensive clinical observations available at the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set to identify patient subtypes and to predict disease progression. Our analysis depicts the progression space for the Alzheimer's disease into low, moderate and high disease progression zones. The proposed work will enable early detection and characterization of distinct disease subtypes based on clinical heterogeneity. We anticipate that our models will enable patient counseling, clinical trial design, and ultimately individualized clinical care.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

This paper is dedicated to the design and evaluation of the first AMR parser tailored for clinical notes. Our objective was to facilitate the precise transformation of the clinical notes into structured AMR expressions, thereby enhancing the interpretability and usability of clinical text data at scale. Leveraging the colon cancer dataset from the Temporal Histories of Your Medical Events (THYME) corpus, we adapted a state-of-the-art AMR parser utilizing continuous training. Our approach incorporates data augmentation techniques to enhance the accuracy of AMR structure predictions. Notably, through this learning strategy, our parser achieved an impressive F1 score of 88% on the THYME corpus's colon cancer dataset. Moreover, our research delved into the efficacy of data required for domain adaptation within the realm of clinical notes, presenting domain adaptation data requirements for AMR parsing. This exploration not only underscores the parser's robust performance but also highlights its potential in facilitating a deeper understanding of clinical narratives through structured semantic representations.

Health conditions among patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are monitored via electronic health records (EHRs), composed of numerical time series and lengthy clinical note sequences, both taken at irregular time intervals. Dealing with such irregularity in every modality, and integrating irregularity into multimodal representations to improve medical predictions, is a challenging problem. Our method first addresses irregularity in each single modality by (1) modeling irregular time series by dynamically incorporating hand-crafted imputation embeddings into learned interpolation embeddings via a gating mechanism, and (2) casting a series of clinical note representations as multivariate irregular time series and tackling irregularity via a time attention mechanism. We further integrate irregularity in multimodal fusion with an interleaved attention mechanism across temporal steps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to thoroughly model irregularity in multimodalities for improving medical predictions. Our proposed methods for two medical prediction tasks consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines in each single modality and multimodal fusion scenarios. Specifically, we observe relative improvements of 6.5\%, 3.6\%, and 4.3\% in F1 for time series, clinical notes, and multimodal fusion, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods and the importance of considering irregularity in multimodal EHRs.

Histopathological analysis is a cornerstone of cancer diagnosis, with Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) staining routinely acquired for every patient to visualize cell morphology and tissue architecture. On the other hand, multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) enables more precise cell type identification via proteomic markers, but has yet to achieve widespread clinical adoption due to cost and logistical constraints. To bridge this gap, we introduce MIPHEI (Multiplex Immunofluorescence Prediction from H&E), a U-Net-inspired architecture that integrates state-of-the-art ViT foundation models as encoders to predict mIF signals from H&E images. MIPHEI targets a comprehensive panel of markers spanning nuclear content, immune lineages (T cells, B cells, myeloid), epithelium, stroma, vasculature, and proliferation. We train our model using the publicly available ORION dataset of restained H&E and mIF images from colorectal cancer tissue, and validate it on two independent datasets. MIPHEI achieves accurate cell-type classification from H&E alone, with F1 scores of 0.88 for Pan-CK, 0.57 for CD3e, 0.56 for SMA, 0.36 for CD68, and 0.30 for CD20, substantially outperforming both a state-of-the-art baseline and a random classifier for most markers. Our results indicate that our model effectively captures the complex relationships between nuclear morphologies in their tissue context, as visible in H&E images and molecular markers defining specific cell types. MIPHEI offers a promising step toward enabling cell-type-aware analysis of large-scale H&E datasets, in view of uncovering relationships between spatial cellular organization and patient outcomes.

Accurate and contrast-free Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) prediction from Cine MRI sequences remains a critical challenge. Existing methods typically necessitate supervised learning based on human-refined masks in the ventricular myocardium, which become impractical without contrast agents. We introduce a self-supervised framework, namely Codebook-based Temporal-Spatial Learning (CTSL), that learns dynamic, spatiotemporal representations from raw Cine data without requiring segmentation masks. CTSL decouples temporal and spatial features through a multi-view distillation strategy, where the teacher model processes multiple Cine views, and the student model learns from reduced-dimensional Cine-SA sequences. By leveraging codebook-based feature representations and dynamic lesion self-detection through motion cues, CTSL captures intricate temporal dependencies and motion patterns. High-confidence MACE risk predictions are achieved through our model, providing a rapid, non-invasive solution for cardiac risk assessment that outperforms traditional contrast-dependent methods, thereby enabling timely and accessible heart disease diagnosis in clinical settings.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) are economic, social and personal circumstances that affect or influence an individual's health status. SDoHs have shown to be correlated to wellness outcomes, and therefore, are useful to physicians in diagnosing diseases and in decision-making. In this work, we automatically extract SDoHs from clinical text using traditional deep learning and Large Language Models (LLMs) to find the advantages and disadvantages of each on an existing publicly available dataset. Our models outperform a previous reference point on a multilabel SDoH classification by 10 points, and we present a method and model to drastically speed up classification (12X execution time) by eliminating expensive LLM processing. The method we present combines a more nimble and efficient solution that leverages the power of the LLM for precision and traditional deep learning methods for efficiency. We also show highly performant results on a dataset supplemented with synthetic data and several traditional deep learning models that outperform LLMs. Our models and methods offer the next iteration of automatic prediction of SDoHs that impact at-risk patients.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a highly prevalent chronic musculoskeletal condition with no currently available treatment. The manifestation of KOA is heterogeneous and prediction of its progression is challenging. Current literature suggests that the use of multi-modal data and advanced modeling methods, such as the ones based on Deep Learning, has promise in tackling this challenge. To date, however, the evidence on the efficacy of this approach is limited. In this study, we leveraged recent advances in Deep Learning and, using a Transformer approach, developed a unified framework for the multi-modal fusion of knee imaging data. Subsequently, we analyzed its performance across a range of scenarios by investigating multiple progression horizons -- from short-term to long-term. We report our findings using a large cohort (n=2421-3967) derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. We show that structural knee MRI allows identifying radiographic KOA progressors on par with multi-modal fusion approaches, achieving an area under the ROC curve (ROC AUC) of 0.70-0.76 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.15-0.54 in 2-8 year horizons. Progression within 1 year was better predicted with a multi-modal method using X-ray, structural, and compositional MR images -- ROC AUC of 0.76(0.04), AP of 0.13(0.04) -- or via clinical data. Our follow-up analysis generally shows that prediction from the imaging data is more accurate for post-traumatic subjects, and we further investigate which subject subgroups may benefit the most. The present study provides novel insights into multi-modal imaging of KOA and brings a unified data-driven framework for studying its progression in an end-to-end manner, providing new tools for the design of more efficient clinical trials. The source code of our framework and the pre-trained models are made publicly available.

Over the past several years, across the globe, there has been an increase in people seeking care in emergency departments (EDs). ED resources, including nurse staffing, are strained by such increases in patient volume. Accurate forecasting of incoming patient volume in emergency departments (ED) is crucial for efficient utilization and allocation of ED resources. Working with a suburban ED in the Pacific Northwest, we developed a tool powered by machine learning models, to forecast ED arrivals and ED patient volume to assist end-users, such as ED nurses, in resource allocation. In this paper, we discuss the results from our predictive models, the challenges, and the learnings from users' experiences with the tool in active clinical deployment in a real world setting.

Predicting clinical outcomes from preclinical data is essential for identifying safe and effective drug combinations. Current models rely on structural or target-based features to identify high-efficacy, low-toxicity drug combinations. However, these approaches fail to incorporate the multimodal data necessary for accurate, clinically-relevant predictions. Here, we introduce MADRIGAL, a multimodal AI model that learns from structural, pathway, cell viability, and transcriptomic data to predict drug combination effects across 953 clinical outcomes and 21842 compounds, including combinations of approved drugs and novel compounds in development. MADRIGAL uses a transformer bottleneck module to unify preclinical drug data modalities while handling missing data during training and inference--a major challenge in multimodal learning. It outperforms single-modality methods and state-of-the-art models in predicting adverse drug interactions. MADRIGAL performs virtual screening of anticancer drug combinations and supports polypharmacy management for type II diabetes and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). It identifies transporter-mediated drug interactions. MADRIGAL predicts resmetirom, the first and only FDA-approved drug for MASH, among therapies with the most favorable safety profile. It supports personalized cancer therapy by integrating genomic profiles from cancer patients. Using primary acute myeloid leukemia samples and patient-derived xenograft models, it predicts the efficacy of personalized drug combinations. Integrating MADRIGAL with a large language model allows users to describe clinical outcomes in natural language, improving safety assessment by identifying potential adverse interactions and toxicity risks. MADRIGAL provides a multimodal approach for designing combination therapies with improved predictive accuracy and clinical relevance.

Deep Learning has revolutionized various fields, including Computer Vision, Natural Language Processing, as well as Biomedical research. Within the field of neuroscience, specifically in electrophysiological neuroimaging, researchers are starting to explore leveraging deep learning to make predictions on their data without extensive feature engineering. The availability of large-scale datasets is a crucial aspect of allowing the experimentation of Deep Learning models. We are publishing the first large-scale clinical EEG dataset that simplifies data access and management for Deep Learning. This dataset contains eyes-closed EEG data prepared from a collection of 1,574 juvenile participants from the Healthy Brain Network. We demonstrate a use case integrating this framework, and discuss why providing such neuroinformatics infrastructure to the community is critical for future scientific discoveries.

Hospitals and healthcare systems rely on operational decisions that determine patient flow, cost, and quality of care. Despite strong performance on medical knowledge and conversational benchmarks, foundation models trained on general text may lack the specialized knowledge required for these operational decisions. We introduce Lang1, a family of models (100M-7B parameters) pretrained on a specialized corpus blending 80B clinical tokens from NYU Langone Health's EHRs and 627B tokens from the internet. To rigorously evaluate Lang1 in real-world settings, we developed the REalistic Medical Evaluation (ReMedE), a benchmark derived from 668,331 EHR notes that evaluates five critical tasks: 30-day readmission prediction, 30-day mortality prediction, length of stay, comorbidity coding, and predicting insurance claims denial. In zero-shot settings, both general-purpose and specialized models underperform on four of five tasks (36.6%-71.7% AUROC), with mortality prediction being an exception. After finetuning, Lang1-1B outperforms finetuned generalist models up to 70x larger and zero-shot models up to 671x larger, improving AUROC by 3.64%-6.75% and 1.66%-23.66% respectively. We also observed cross-task scaling with joint finetuning on multiple tasks leading to improvement on other tasks. Lang1-1B effectively transfers to out-of-distribution settings, including other clinical tasks and an external health system. Our findings suggest that predictive capabilities for hospital operations require explicit supervised finetuning, and that this finetuning process is made more efficient by in-domain pretraining on EHR. Our findings support the emerging view that specialized LLMs can compete with generalist models in specialized tasks, and show that effective healthcare systems AI requires the combination of in-domain pretraining, supervised finetuning, and real-world evaluation beyond proxy benchmarks.

Diagnosing and treating skin diseases require advanced visual skills across domains and the ability to synthesize information from multiple imaging modalities. While current deep learning models excel at specific tasks like skin cancer diagnosis from dermoscopic images, they struggle to meet the complex, multimodal requirements of clinical practice. Here, we introduce PanDerm, a multimodal dermatology foundation model pretrained through self-supervised learning on over 2 million real-world skin disease images from 11 clinical institutions across 4 imaging modalities. We evaluated PanDerm on 28 diverse benchmarks, including skin cancer screening, risk stratification, differential diagnosis of common and rare skin conditions, lesion segmentation, longitudinal monitoring, and metastasis prediction and prognosis. PanDerm achieved state-of-the-art performance across all evaluated tasks, often outperforming existing models when using only 10% of labeled data. We conducted three reader studies to assess PanDerm's potential clinical utility. PanDerm outperformed clinicians by 10.2% in early-stage melanoma detection through longitudinal analysis, improved clinicians' skin cancer diagnostic accuracy by 11% on dermoscopy images, and enhanced non-dermatologist healthcare providers' differential diagnosis by 16.5% across 128 skin conditions on clinical photographs. These results demonstrate PanDerm's potential to improve patient care across diverse clinical scenarios and serve as a model for developing multimodal foundation models in other medical specialties, potentially accelerating the integration of AI support in healthcare. The code can be found at https://github.com/SiyuanYan1/PanDerm.

Gathering histopathology slides from over 100 publicly available cohorts, we compile a diverse dataset of 460 million pathology tiles covering more than 30 cancer sites. Using this dataset, we train a large self-supervised vision transformer using DINOv2 and publicly release one iteration of this model for further experimentation, coined Phikon-v2. While trained on publicly available histology slides, Phikon-v2 surpasses our previously released model (Phikon) and performs on par with other histopathology foundation models (FM) trained on proprietary data. Our benchmarks include eight slide-level tasks with results reported on external validation cohorts avoiding any data contamination between pre-training and evaluation datasets. Our downstream training procedure follows a simple yet robust ensembling strategy yielding a +1.75 AUC increase across tasks and models compared to one-shot retraining (p<0.001). We compare Phikon (ViT-B) and Phikon-v2 (ViT-L) against 14 different histology feature extractors, making our evaluation the most comprehensive to date. Our result support evidences that DINOv2 handles joint model and data scaling better than iBOT. Also, we show that recent scaling efforts are overall beneficial to downstream performance in the context of biomarker prediction with GigaPath and H-Optimus-0 (two ViT-g with 1.1B parameters each) standing out. However, the statistical margins between the latest top-performing FMs remain mostly non-significant; some even underperform on specific indications or tasks such as MSI prediction - deposed by a 13x smaller model developed internally. While latest foundation models may exhibit limitations for clinical deployment, they nonetheless offer excellent grounds for the development of more specialized and cost-efficient histology encoders fueling AI-guided diagnostic tools.

The integration of multimodal data including pathology images and gene profiles is widely applied in precise survival prediction. Despite recent advances in multimodal survival models, collecting complete modalities for multimodal fusion still poses a significant challenge, hindering their application in clinical settings. Current approaches tackling incomplete modalities often fall short, as they typically compensate for only a limited part of the knowledge of missing modalities. To address this issue, we propose a Distilled Prompt Learning framework (DisPro) to utilize the strong robustness of Large Language Models (LLMs) to missing modalities, which employs two-stage prompting for compensation of comprehensive information for missing modalities. In the first stage, Unimodal Prompting (UniPro) distills the knowledge distribution of each modality, preparing for supplementing modality-specific knowledge of the missing modality in the subsequent stage. In the second stage, Multimodal Prompting (MultiPro) leverages available modalities as prompts for LLMs to infer the missing modality, which provides modality-common information. Simultaneously, the unimodal knowledge acquired in the first stage is injected into multimodal inference to compensate for the modality-specific knowledge of the missing modality. Extensive experiments covering various missing scenarios demonstrated the superiority of the proposed method. The code is available at https://github.com/Innse/DisPro.

Understanding how deep learning models predict oncology patient risk can provide critical insights into disease progression, support clinical decision-making, and pave the way for trustworthy and data-driven precision medicine. Building on recent advances in the spatial modeling of the tumor microenvironment using graph neural networks, we present an explainable cell graph (xCG) approach for survival prediction. We validate our model on a public cohort of imaging mass cytometry (IMC) data for 416 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. We explain survival predictions in terms of known phenotypes on the cell level by computing risk attributions over cell graphs, for which we propose an efficient grid-based layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) method. Our ablation studies highlight the importance of incorporating the cancer stage and model ensembling to improve the quality of risk estimates. Our xCG method, together with the IMC data, is made publicly available to support further research.

Protein Language Models (PLMs) have emerged as performant and scalable tools for predicting the functional impact and clinical significance of protein-coding variants, but they still lag experimental accuracy. Here, we present a novel fine-tuning approach to improve the performance of PLMs with experimental maps of variant effects from Deep Mutational Scanning (DMS) assays using a Normalised Log-odds Ratio (NLR) head. We find consistent improvements in a held-out protein test set, and on independent DMS and clinical variant annotation benchmarks from ProteinGym and ClinVar. These findings demonstrate that DMS is a promising source of sequence diversity and supervised training data for improving the performance of PLMs for variant effect prediction.

Artificial intelligence (AI) that can effectively learn ultrasound representations by integrating multi-source data holds significant promise for advancing clinical care. However, the scarcity of large labeled datasets in real-world clinical environments and the limited generalizability of task-specific models have hindered the development of generalizable clinical AI models for ultrasound applications. In this study, we present EchoCare, a novel ultrasound foundation model for generalist clinical use, developed via self-supervised learning on our curated, publicly available, large-scale dataset EchoCareData. EchoCareData comprises 4.5 million ultrasound images, sourced from over 23 countries across 5 continents and acquired via a diverse range of distinct imaging devices, thus encompassing global cohorts that are multi-center, multi-device, and multi-ethnic. Unlike prior studies that adopt off-the-shelf vision foundation model architectures, we introduce a hierarchical classifier into EchoCare to enable joint learning of pixel-level and representation-level features, capturing both global anatomical contexts and local ultrasound characteristics. With minimal training, EchoCare outperforms state-of-the-art comparison models across 10 representative ultrasound benchmarks of varying diagnostic difficulties, spanning disease diagnosis, lesion segmentation, organ detection, landmark prediction, quantitative regression, imaging enhancement and report generation. The code and pretrained model are publicly released, rendering EchoCare accessible for fine-tuning and local adaptation, supporting extensibility to additional applications. EchoCare provides a fully open and generalizable foundation model to boost the development of AI technologies for diverse clinical ultrasound applications.

The Quantum-Inspired Stacked Integrated Concept Graph Model (QISICGM) is an innovative machine learning framework that harnesses quantum-inspired techniques to predict diabetes risk with exceptional accuracy and efficiency. Utilizing the PIMA Indians Diabetes dataset augmented with 2,000 synthetic samples to mitigate class imbalance (total: 2,768 samples, 1,949 positives), QISICGM integrates a self-improving concept graph with a stacked ensemble comprising Random Forests (RF), Extra Trees (ET), transformers, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs). This approach achieves an out-of-fold (OOF) F1 score of 0.8933 and an AUC of 0.8699, outperforming traditional methods. Quantum inspired elements, such as phase feature mapping and neighborhood sequence modeling, enrich feature representations, enabling CPU-efficient inference at 8.5 rows per second. This paper presents a detailed architecture, theoretical foundations, code insights, and performance evaluations, including visualizations from the outputs subfolder. The open-source implementation (v1.0.0) is available at https://github.com/keninayoung/QISICGM, positioning QISICGM as a potential benchmark for AI-assisted clinical triage in diabetes and beyond. Ultimately, this work emphasizes trustworthy AI through calibration, interpretability, and open-source reproducibility.

Bone density prediction via CT scans to estimate T-scores is crucial, providing a more precise assessment of bone health compared to traditional methods like X-ray bone density tests, which lack spatial resolution and the ability to detect localized changes. However, CT-based prediction faces two major challenges: the high computational complexity of transformer-based architectures, which limits their deployment in portable and clinical settings, and the imbalanced, long-tailed distribution of real-world hospital data that skews predictions. To address these issues, we introduce MedConv, a convolutional model for bone density prediction that outperforms transformer models with lower computational demands. We also adapt Bal-CE loss and post-hoc logit adjustment to improve class balance. Extensive experiments on our AustinSpine dataset shows that our approach achieves up to 21% improvement in accuracy and 20% in ROC AUC over previous state-of-the-art methods.

Alongside neuroimaging such as MRI scans and PET, Alzheimer's disease (AD) datasets contain valuable tabular data including AD biomarkers and clinical assessments. Existing computer vision approaches struggle to utilize this additional information. To address these needs, we propose a generalizable framework for multimodal contrastive learning of image data and tabular data, a novel tabular attention module for amplifying and ranking salient features in tables, and the application of these techniques onto Alzheimer's disease prediction. Experimental evaulations demonstrate the strength of our framework by detecting Alzheimer's disease (AD) from over 882 MR image slices from the ADNI database. We take advantage of the high interpretability of tabular data and our novel tabular attention approach and through attribution of the attention scores for each row of the table, we note and rank the most predominant features. Results show that the model is capable of an accuracy of over 83.8%, almost a 10% increase from previous state of the art.

An important limitation to the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based solutions for In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) is the absence of a public reference benchmark to train and evaluate deep learning (DL) models. In this work, we describe a fully annotated dataset of 704 videos of developing embryos, for a total of 337k images. We applied ResNet, LSTM, and ResNet-3D architectures to our dataset and demonstrate that they overperform algorithmic approaches to automatically annotate stage development phases. Altogether, we propose the first public benchmark that will allow the community to evaluate morphokinetic models. This is the first step towards deep learning-powered IVF. Of note, we propose highly detailed annotations with 16 different development phases, including early cell division phases, but also late cell divisions, phases after morulation, and very early phases, which have never been used before. We postulate that this original approach will help improve the overall performance of deep learning approaches on time-lapse videos of embryo development, ultimately benefiting infertile patients with improved clinical success rates (Code and data are available at https://gitlab.univ-nantes.fr/E144069X/bench_mk_pred.git).

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive disease that irreversibly transforms lung tissue into rigid fibrotic structures, leading to debilitating symptoms such as shortness of breath and chronic fatigue. The heterogeneity and complexity of this disease, particularly regarding its severity and progression rate, have made predicting its future course a complex and challenging task. Besides, traditional diagnostic methods based on clinical evaluations and imaging have limitations in capturing the disease's complexity. Using the Kaggle Pulmonary Fibrosis Progression dataset, which includes computed tomography images, and clinical information, the model predicts changes in forced vital capacity (FVC), a key progression indicator. Our method uses a proposed context-aware sequential-parallel hybrid transformer model and clinical information enrichment for its prediction. The proposed method achieved a Laplace Log-Likelihood score of -6.508, outperforming prior methods and demonstrating superior predictive capabilities. These results highlight the potential of advanced deep learning techniques to provide more accurate and timely predictions, offering a transformative approach to the diagnosis and management of IPF, with implications for improved patient outcomes and therapeutic advancements.

The complexity and variability inherent in high-resolution pathological images present significant challenges in computational pathology. While pathology foundation models leveraging AI have catalyzed transformative advancements, their development demands large-scale datasets, considerable storage capacity, and substantial computational resources. Furthermore, ensuring their clinical applicability and generalizability requires rigorous validation across a broad spectrum of clinical tasks. Here, we present PathOrchestra, a versatile pathology foundation model trained via self-supervised learning on a dataset comprising 300K pathological slides from 20 tissue and organ types across multiple centers. The model was rigorously evaluated on 112 clinical tasks using a combination of 61 private and 51 public datasets. These tasks encompass digital slide preprocessing, pan-cancer classification, lesion identification, multi-cancer subtype classification, biomarker assessment, gene expression prediction, and the generation of structured reports. PathOrchestra demonstrated exceptional performance across 27,755 WSIs and 9,415,729 ROIs, achieving over 0.950 accuracy in 47 tasks, including pan-cancer classification across various organs, lymphoma subtype diagnosis, and bladder cancer screening. Notably, it is the first model to generate structured reports for high-incidence colorectal cancer and diagnostically complex lymphoma-areas that are infrequently addressed by foundational models but hold immense clinical potential. Overall, PathOrchestra exemplifies the feasibility and efficacy of a large-scale, self-supervised pathology foundation model, validated across a broad range of clinical-grade tasks. Its high accuracy and reduced reliance on extensive data annotation underline its potential for clinical integration, offering a pathway toward more efficient and high-quality medical services.

Breast cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, making early detection and accurate treatment response monitoring critical priorities. We present BreastDCEDL, a curated, deep learning-ready dataset comprising pre-treatment 3D Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) scans from 2,070 breast cancer patients drawn from the I-SPY1, I-SPY2, and Duke cohorts, all sourced from The Cancer Imaging Archive. The raw DICOM imaging data were rigorously converted into standardized 3D NIfTI volumes with preserved signal integrity, accompanied by unified tumor annotations and harmonized clinical metadata including pathologic complete response (pCR), hormone receptor (HR), and HER2 status. Although DCE-MRI provides essential diagnostic information and deep learning offers tremendous potential for analyzing such complex data, progress has been limited by lack of accessible, public, multicenter datasets. BreastDCEDL addresses this gap by enabling development of advanced models, including state-of-the-art transformer architectures that require substantial training data. To demonstrate its capacity for robust modeling, we developed the first transformer-based model for breast DCE-MRI, leveraging Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture trained on RGB-fused images from three contrast phases (pre-contrast, early post-contrast, and late post-contrast). Our ViT model achieved state-of-the-art pCR prediction performance in HR+/HER2- patients (AUC 0.94, accuracy 0.93). BreastDCEDL includes predefined benchmark splits, offering a framework for reproducible research and enabling clinically meaningful modeling in breast cancer imaging.

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events recurrence risk in acute myocardial infarction patients based on postoperative cardiac MRI and associated clinical notes is crucial for precision treatment and personalized intervention. Existing methods primarily focus on risk stratification capability while overlooking the need for intermediate robust reasoning and model interpretability in clinical practice. Moreover, end-to-end risk prediction using LLM/VLM faces significant challenges due to data limitations and modeling complexity. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioCoT, a novel two-stage hierarchical reasoning-enhanced survival analysis framework designed to enhance both model interpretability and predictive performance. In the first stage, we employ an evidence-augmented self-refinement mechanism to guide LLM/VLMs in generating robust hierarchical reasoning trajectories based on associated radiological findings. In the second stage, we integrate the reasoning trajectories with imaging data for risk model training and prediction. CardioCoT demonstrates superior performance in MACE recurrence risk prediction while providing interpretable reasoning processes, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

Automated diagnosis prediction from medical images is a valuable resource to support clinical decision-making. However, such systems usually need to be trained on large amounts of annotated data, which often is scarce in the medical domain. Zero-shot methods address this challenge by allowing a flexible adaption to new settings with different clinical findings without relying on labeled data. Further, to integrate automated diagnosis in the clinical workflow, methods should be transparent and explainable, increasing medical professionals' trust and facilitating correctness verification. In this work, we introduce Xplainer, a novel framework for explainable zero-shot diagnosis in the clinical setting. Xplainer adapts the classification-by-description approach of contrastive vision-language models to the multi-label medical diagnosis task. Specifically, instead of directly predicting a diagnosis, we prompt the model to classify the existence of descriptive observations, which a radiologist would look for on an X-Ray scan, and use the descriptor probabilities to estimate the likelihood of a diagnosis. Our model is explainable by design, as the final diagnosis prediction is directly based on the prediction of the underlying descriptors. We evaluate Xplainer on two chest X-ray datasets, CheXpert and ChestX-ray14, and demonstrate its effectiveness in improving the performance and explainability of zero-shot diagnosis. Our results suggest that Xplainer provides a more detailed understanding of the decision-making process and can be a valuable tool for clinical diagnosis.

Accurate prediction of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression from structural MRI has a potential to enhance disease understanding and support clinical trials. Prior art focused on manually designed imaging biomarkers, which may not fully exploit all disease-related information present in MRI scan. In contrast, our method learns relevant representations from raw data end-to-end using Deep Learning, and uses them for progression prediction. The method employs a 2D CNN to process the data slice-wise and aggregate the extracted features using a Transformer. Evaluated on a large cohort (n=4,866), the proposed method outperforms conventional 2D and 3D CNN-based models and achieves average precision of 0.58pm0.03 and ROC AUC of 0.78pm0.01. This paper sets a baseline on end-to-end KOA progression prediction from structural MRI. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/OAProgressionMR.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease, which has no cure. Knee OA (KOA) is one of the highest causes of disability worldwide, and it costs billions of United States dollars to the global community. Prediction of KOA progression has been of high interest to the community for years, as it can advance treatment development through more efficient clinical trials and improve patient outcomes through more efficient healthcare utilization. Existing approaches for predicting KOA, however, are predominantly static, i.e. consider data from a single time point to predict progression many years into the future, and knee level, i.e. consider progression in a single joint only. Due to these and related reasons, these methods fail to deliver the level of predictive performance, which is sufficient to result in cost savings and better patient outcomes. Collecting extensive data from all patients on a regular basis could address the issue, but it is limited by the high cost at a population level. In this work, we propose to go beyond static prediction models in OA, and bring a novel Active Sensing (AS) approach, designed to dynamically follow up patients with the objective of maximizing the number of informative data acquisitions, while minimizing their total cost over a period of time. Our approach is based on Reinforcement Learning (RL), and it leverages a novel reward function designed specifically for AS of disease progression in more than one part of a human body. Our method is end-to-end, relies on multi-modal Deep Learning, and requires no human input at inference time. Throughout an exhaustive experimental evaluation, we show that using RL can provide a higher monetary benefit when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Once deployed, medical image analysis methods are often faced with unexpected image corruptions and noise perturbations. These unknown covariate shifts present significant challenges to deep learning based methods trained on "clean" images. This often results in unreliable predictions and poorly calibrated confidence, hence hindering clinical applicability. While recent methods have been developed to address specific issues such as confidence calibration or adversarial robustness, no single framework effectively tackles all these challenges simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we propose LaDiNE, a novel ensemble learning method combining the robustness of Vision Transformers with diffusion-based generative models for improved reliability in medical image classification. Specifically, transformer encoder blocks are used as hierarchical feature extractors that learn invariant features from images for each ensemble member, resulting in features that are robust to input perturbations. In addition, diffusion models are used as flexible density estimators to estimate member densities conditioned on the invariant features, leading to improved modeling of complex data distributions while retaining properly calibrated confidence. Extensive experiments on tuberculosis chest X-rays and melanoma skin cancer datasets demonstrate that LaDiNE achieves superior performance compared to a wide range of state-of-the-art methods by simultaneously improving prediction accuracy and confidence calibration under unseen noise, adversarial perturbations, and resolution degradation.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Therapeutic development is a costly and high-risk endeavor that is often plagued by high failure rates. To address this, we introduce TxGemma, a suite of efficient, generalist large language models (LLMs) capable of therapeutic property prediction as well as interactive reasoning and explainability. Unlike task-specific models, TxGemma synthesizes information from diverse sources, enabling broad application across the therapeutic development pipeline. The suite includes 2B, 9B, and 27B parameter models, fine-tuned from Gemma-2 on a comprehensive dataset of small molecules, proteins, nucleic acids, diseases, and cell lines. Across 66 therapeutic development tasks, TxGemma achieved superior or comparable performance to the state-of-the-art generalist model on 64 (superior on 45), and against state-of-the-art specialist models on 50 (superior on 26). Fine-tuning TxGemma models on therapeutic downstream tasks, such as clinical trial adverse event prediction, requires less training data than fine-tuning base LLMs, making TxGemma suitable for data-limited applications. Beyond these predictive capabilities, TxGemma features conversational models that bridge the gap between general LLMs and specialized property predictors. These allow scientists to interact in natural language, provide mechanistic reasoning for predictions based on molecular structure, and engage in scientific discussions. Building on this, we further introduce Agentic-Tx, a generalist therapeutic agentic system powered by Gemini 2.5 that reasons, acts, manages diverse workflows, and acquires external domain knowledge. Agentic-Tx surpasses prior leading models on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark (Chemistry & Biology) with 52.3% relative improvement over o3-mini (high) and 26.7% over o3-mini (high) on GPQA (Chemistry) and excels with improvements of 6.3% (ChemBench-Preference) and 2.4% (ChemBench-Mini) over o3-mini (high).

Trustworthy interpretation of deep learning models is critical for neuroimaging applications, yet commonly used Explainable AI (XAI) methods lack rigorous validation, risking misinterpretation. We performed the first large-scale, systematic comparison of XAI methods on ~45,000 structural brain MRIs using a novel XAI validation framework. This framework establishes verifiable ground truth by constructing prediction tasks with known signal sources - from localized anatomical features to subject-specific clinical lesions - without artificially altering input images. Our analysis reveals systematic failures in two of the most widely used methods: GradCAM consistently failed to localize predictive features, while Layer-wise Relevance Propagation generated extensive, artifactual explanations that suggest incompatibility with neuroimaging data characteristics. Our results indicate that these failures stem from a domain mismatch, where methods with design principles tailored to natural images require substantial adaptation for neuroimaging data. In contrast, the simpler, gradient-based method SmoothGrad, which makes fewer assumptions about data structure, proved consistently accurate, suggesting its conceptual simplicity makes it more robust to this domain shift. These findings highlight the need for domain-specific adaptation and validation of XAI methods, suggest that interpretations from prior neuroimaging studies using standard XAI methodology warrant re-evaluation, and provide urgent guidance for practical application of XAI in neuroimaging.

Codification of free-text clinical narratives have long been recognised to be beneficial for secondary uses such as funding, insurance claim processing and research. The current scenario of assigning codes is a manual process which is very expensive, time-consuming and error prone. In recent years, many researchers have studied the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP), related Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) methods and techniques to resolve the problem of manual coding of clinical narratives and to assist human coders to assign clinical codes more accurately and efficiently. This systematic literature review provides a comprehensive overview of automated clinical coding systems that utilises appropriate NLP, ML and DL methods and techniques to assign ICD codes to discharge summaries. We have followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses(PRISMA) guidelines and conducted a comprehensive search of publications from January, 2010 to December 2020 in four academic databases- PubMed, ScienceDirect, Association for Computing Machinery(ACM) Digital Library, and the Association for Computational Linguistics(ACL) Anthology. We reviewed 7,556 publications; 38 met the inclusion criteria. This review identified: datasets having discharge summaries; NLP techniques along with some other data extraction processes, different feature extraction and embedding techniques. To measure the performance of classification methods, different evaluation metrics are used. Lastly, future research directions are provided to scholars who are interested in automated ICD code assignment. Efforts are still required to improve ICD code prediction accuracy, availability of large-scale de-identified clinical corpora with the latest version of the classification system. This can be a platform to guide and share knowledge with the less experienced coders and researchers.

Reliable medical image classification requires accurate predictions and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, especially in high-stakes clinical settings. This work presents MedSymmFlow, a generative-discriminative hybrid model built on Symmetrical Flow Matching, designed to unify classification, generation, and uncertainty quantification in medical imaging. MedSymmFlow leverages a latent-space formulation that scales to high-resolution inputs and introduces a semantic mask conditioning mechanism to enhance diagnostic relevance. Unlike standard discriminative models, it naturally estimates uncertainty through its generative sampling process. The model is evaluated on four MedMNIST datasets, covering a range of modalities and pathologies. The results show that MedSymmFlow matches or exceeds the performance of established baselines in classification accuracy and AUC, while also delivering reliable uncertainty estimates validated by performance improvements under selective prediction.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has showcased impressive proficiency in numerous Arabic natural language processing (NLP) applications. Nevertheless, their effectiveness in Arabic medical NLP domains has received limited investigation. This research examines the degree to which state-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate and articulate healthcare knowledge in Arabic, assessing their capabilities across a varied array of Arabic medical tasks. We benchmark several LLMs using a medical dataset proposed in the Arabic NLP AraHealthQA challenge in MedArabiQ2025 track. Various base LLMs were assessed on their ability to accurately provide correct answers from existing choices in multiple-choice questions (MCQs) and fill-in-the-blank scenarios. Additionally, we evaluated the capacity of LLMs in answering open-ended questions aligned with expert answers. Our results reveal significant variations in correct answer prediction accuracy and low variations in semantic alignment of generated answers, highlighting both the potential and limitations of current LLMs in Arabic clinical contexts. Our analysis shows that for MCQs task, the proposed majority voting solution, leveraging three base models (Gemini Flash 2.5, Gemini Pro 2.5, and GPT o3), outperforms others, achieving up to 77% accuracy and securing first place overall in the Arahealthqa 2025 shared task-track 2 (sub-task 1) challenge. Moreover, for the open-ended questions task, several LLMs were able to demonstrate excellent performance in terms of semantic alignment and achieve a maximum BERTScore of 86.44%.

Deep Learning (DL) in neuroimaging has become increasingly relevant for detecting neurological conditions and neurodegenerative disorders. One of the most predominant biomarkers in neuroimaging is represented by brain age, which has been shown to be a good indicator for different conditions, such as Alzheimer's Disease. Using brain age for weakly supervised pre-training of DL models in transfer learning settings has also recently shown promising results, especially when dealing with data scarcity of different conditions. On the other hand, anatomical information of brain MRIs (e.g. cortical thickness) can provide important information for learning good representations that can be transferred to many downstream tasks. In this work, we propose AnatCL, an anatomical foundation model for brain MRIs that i.) leverages anatomical information in a weakly contrastive learning approach, and ii.) achieves state-of-the-art performances across many different downstream tasks. To validate our approach we consider 12 different downstream tasks for the diagnosis of different conditions such as Alzheimer's Disease, autism spectrum disorder, and schizophrenia. Furthermore, we also target the prediction of 10 different clinical assessment scores using structural MRI data. Our findings show that incorporating anatomical information during pre-training leads to more robust and generalizable representations. Pre-trained models can be found at: https://github.com/EIDOSLAB/AnatCL.

Prototype-based neural networks offer interpretable predictions by comparing inputs to learned, representative signal patterns anchored in training data. While such models have shown promise in the classification of physiological data, it remains unclear whether their prototypes capture an underlying structure that aligns with broader clinical phenotypes. We use a prototype-based deep learning model trained for multi-label ECG classification using the PTB-XL dataset. Then without modification we performed inference on the MIMIC-IV clinical database. We assess whether individual prototypes, trained solely for classification, are associated with hospital discharge diagnoses in the form of phecodes in this external population. Individual prototypes demonstrate significantly stronger and more specific associations with clinical outcomes compared to the classifier's class predictions, NLP-extracted concepts, or broader prototype classes across all phecode categories. Prototype classes with mixed significance patterns exhibit significantly greater intra-class distances (p < 0.0001), indicating the model learned to differentiate clinically meaningful variations within diagnostic categories. The prototypes achieve strong predictive performance across diverse conditions, with AUCs ranging from 0.89 for atrial fibrillation to 0.91 for heart failure, while also showing substantial signal for non-cardiac conditions such as sepsis and renal disease. These findings suggest that prototype-based models can support interpretable digital phenotyping from physiologic time-series data, providing transferable intermediate phenotypes that capture clinically meaningful physiologic signatures beyond their original training objectives.

Electronic health records (EHR) contain narrative notes that provide extensive details on the medical condition and management of patients. Natural language processing (NLP) of clinical notes can use observed frequencies of clinical terms as predictive features for downstream applications such as clinical decision making and patient trajectory prediction. However, due to the vast number of highly similar and related clinical concepts, a more effective modeling strategy is to represent clinical terms as semantic embeddings via representation learning and use the low dimensional embeddings as feature vectors for predictive modeling. To achieve efficient representation, fine-tuning pretrained language models with biomedical knowledge graphs may generate better embeddings for biomedical terms than those from standard language models alone. These embeddings can effectively discriminate synonymous pairs of from those that are unrelated. However, they often fail to capture different degrees of similarity or relatedness for concepts that are hierarchical in nature. To overcome this limitation, we propose HiPrBERT, a novel biomedical term representation model trained on additionally complied data that contains hierarchical structures for various biomedical terms. We modify an existing contrastive loss function to extract information from these hierarchies. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that HiPrBERT effectively learns the pair-wise distance from hierarchical information, resulting in a substantially more informative embeddings for further biomedical applications

Despite decades of clinical research, sepsis remains a global public health crisis with high mortality, and morbidity. Currently, when sepsis is detected and the underlying pathogen is identified, organ damage may have already progressed to irreversible stages. Effective sepsis management is therefore highly time-sensitive. By systematically analysing trends in the plethora of clinical data available in the intensive care unit (ICU), an early prediction of sepsis could lead to earlier pathogen identification, resistance testing, and effective antibiotic and supportive treatment, and thereby become a life-saving measure. Here, we developed and validated a machine learning (ML) system for the prediction of sepsis in the ICU. Our analysis represents the largest multi-national, multi-centre in-ICU study for sepsis prediction using ML to date. Our dataset contains 156,309 unique ICU admissions, which represent a refined and harmonised subset of five large ICU databases originating from three countries. Using the international consensus definition Sepsis-3, we derived hourly-resolved sepsis label annotations, amounting to 26,734 (17.1%) septic stays. We compared our approach, a deep self-attention model, to several clinical baselines as well as ML baselines and performed an extensive internal and external validation within and across databases. On average, our model was able to predict sepsis with an AUROC of 0.847 pm 0.050 (internal out-of sample validation) and 0.761 pm 0.052 (external validation). For a harmonised prevalence of 17%, at 80% recall our model detects septic patients with 39% precision 3.7 hours in advance.

This paper presents a Patherea, a framework for point-based cell detection and classification that provides a complete solution for developing and evaluating state-of-the-art approaches. We introduce a large-scale dataset collected to directly replicate a clinical workflow for Ki-67 proliferation index estimation and use it to develop an efficient point-based approach that directly predicts point-based predictions, without the need for intermediate representations. The proposed approach effectively utilizes point proposal candidates with the hybrid Hungarian matching strategy and a flexible architecture that enables the usage of various backbones and (pre)training strategies. We report state-of-the-art results on existing public datasets - Lizard, BRCA-M2C, BCData, and the newly proposed Patherea dataset. We show that the performance on existing public datasets is saturated and that the newly proposed Patherea dataset represents a significantly harder challenge for the recently proposed approaches. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of recently proposed pathology foundational models that our proposed approach can natively utilize and benefit from. We also revisit the evaluation protocol that is used in the broader field of cell detection and classification and identify the erroneous calculation of performance metrics. Patherea provides a benchmarking utility that addresses the identified issues and enables a fair comparison of different approaches. The dataset and the code will be publicly released upon acceptance.

The non-invasive assessment of increasingly incidentally discovered renal masses is a critical challenge in urologic oncology, where diagnostic uncertainty frequently leads to the overtreatment of benign or indolent tumors. In this study, we developed and validated RenalCLIP using a dataset of 27,866 CT scans from 8,809 patients across nine Chinese medical centers and the public TCIA cohort, a visual-language foundation model for characterization, diagnosis and prognosis of renal mass. The model was developed via a two-stage pre-training strategy that first enhances the image and text encoders with domain-specific knowledge before aligning them through a contrastive learning objective, to create robust representations for superior generalization and diagnostic precision. RenalCLIP achieved better performance and superior generalizability across 10 core tasks spanning the full clinical workflow of kidney cancer, including anatomical assessment, diagnostic classification, and survival prediction, compared with other state-of-the-art general-purpose CT foundation models. Especially, for complicated task like recurrence-free survival prediction in the TCIA cohort, RenalCLIP achieved a C-index of 0.726, representing a substantial improvement of approximately 20% over the leading baselines. Furthermore, RenalCLIP's pre-training imparted remarkable data efficiency; in the diagnostic classification task, it only needs 20% training data to achieve the peak performance of all baseline models even after they were fully fine-tuned on 100% of the data. Additionally, it achieved superior performance in report generation, image-text retrieval and zero-shot diagnosis tasks. Our findings establish that RenalCLIP provides a robust tool with the potential to enhance diagnostic accuracy, refine prognostic stratification, and personalize the management of patients with kidney cancer.

Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable potential in medical domain. However, their application to complex cardiovascular diagnostics remains underexplored. In this paper, we present Cardiac-CLIP, a multi-modal foundation model designed for 3D cardiac CT images. Cardiac-CLIP is developed through a two-stage pre-training strategy. The first stage employs a 3D masked autoencoder (MAE) to perform self-supervised representation learning from large-scale unlabeled volumetric data, enabling the visual encoder to capture rich anatomical and contextual features. In the second stage, contrastive learning is introduced to align visual and textual representations, facilitating cross-modal understanding. To support the pre-training, we collect 16641 real clinical CT scans, supplemented by 114k publicly available data. Meanwhile, we standardize free-text radiology reports into unified templates and construct the pathology vectors according to diagnostic attributes, based on which the soft-label matrix is generated to supervise the contrastive learning process. On the other hand, to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of Cardiac-CLIP, we collect 6,722 real-clinical data from 12 independent institutions, along with the open-source data to construct the evaluation dataset. Specifically, Cardiac-CLIP is comprehensively evaluated across multiple tasks, including cardiovascular abnormality classification, information retrieval and clinical analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that Cardiac-CLIP achieves state-of-the-art performance across various downstream tasks in both internal and external data. Particularly, Cardiac-CLIP exhibits great effectiveness in supporting complex clinical tasks such as the prospective prediction of acute coronary syndrome, which is notoriously difficult in real-world scenarios.

Foundation models are reshaping computational pathology by enabling transfer learning, where models pre-trained on vast datasets can be adapted for downstream diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic response tasks. Despite these advances, foundation models are still limited in their ability to encode the entire gigapixel whole-slide images without additional training and often lack complementary multimodal data. Here, we introduce Threads, a slide-level foundation model capable of generating universal representations of whole-slide images of any size. Threads was pre-trained using a multimodal learning approach on a diverse cohort of 47,171 hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained tissue sections, paired with corresponding genomic and transcriptomic profiles - the largest such paired dataset to be used for foundation model development to date. This unique training paradigm enables Threads to capture the tissue's underlying molecular composition, yielding powerful representations applicable to a wide array of downstream tasks. In extensive benchmarking across 54 oncology tasks, including clinical subtyping, grading, mutation prediction, immunohistochemistry status determination, treatment response prediction, and survival prediction, Threads outperformed all baselines while demonstrating remarkable generalizability and label efficiency. It is particularly well suited for predicting rare events, further emphasizing its clinical utility. We intend to make the model publicly available for the broader community.

Objective: We develop a deep learning framework based on the pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model using unstructured clinical notes from electronic health records (EHRs) to predict the risk of disease progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Materials and Methods: We identified 3657 patients diagnosed with MCI together with their progress notes from Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse (NMEDW) between 2000-2020. The progress notes no later than the first MCI diagnosis were used for the prediction. We first preprocessed the notes by deidentification, cleaning and splitting, and then pretrained a BERT model for AD (AD-BERT) based on the publicly available Bio+Clinical BERT on the preprocessed notes. The embeddings of all the sections of a patient's notes processed by AD-BERT were combined by MaxPooling to compute the probability of MCI-to-AD progression. For replication, we conducted a similar set of experiments on 2563 MCI patients identified at Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM) during the same timeframe. Results: Compared with the 7 baseline models, the AD-BERT model achieved the best performance on both datasets, with Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.8170 and F1 score of 0.4178 on NMEDW dataset and AUC of 0.8830 and F1 score of 0.6836 on WCM dataset. Conclusion: We developed a deep learning framework using BERT models which provide an effective solution for prediction of MCI-to-AD progression using clinical note analysis.

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the art results in predicting blood glucose trajectories, with a wide range of architectures being proposed. However, the adaptation of such models in clinical practice is slow, largely due to the lack of uncertainty quantification of provided predictions. In this work, we propose to model the future glucose trajectory conditioned on the past as an infinite mixture of basis distributions (i.e., Gaussian, Laplace, etc.). This change allows us to learn the uncertainty and predict more accurately in the cases when the trajectory has a heterogeneous or multi-modal distribution. To estimate the parameters of the predictive distribution, we utilize the Transformer architecture. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing state-of-the-art techniques both in terms of accuracy and uncertainty on the synthetic and benchmark glucose data sets.

Despite the rapid development of natural language processing (NLP) implementation in electronic medical records (EMRs), Chinese EMRs processing remains challenging due to the limited corpus and specific grammatical characteristics, especially for radiology reports. In this study, we designed an NLP pipeline for the direct extraction of clinically relevant features from Chinese radiology reports, which is the first key step in computer-aided radiologic diagnosis. The pipeline was comprised of named entity recognition, synonyms normalization, and relationship extraction to finally derive the radiological features composed of one or more terms. In named entity recognition, we incorporated lexicon into deep learning model bidirectional long short-term memory-conditional random field (BiLSTM-CRF), and the model finally achieved an F1 score of 93.00%. With the extracted radiological features, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and machine learning methods (support vector machine, random forest, decision tree, and logistic regression) were used to build the classifiers for liver cancer prediction. For liver cancer diagnosis, random forest had the highest predictive performance in liver cancer diagnosis (F1 score 86.97%, precision 87.71%, and recall 86.25%). This work was a comprehensive NLP study focusing on Chinese radiology reports and the application of NLP in cancer risk prediction. The proposed NLP pipeline for the radiological feature extraction could be easily implemented in other kinds of Chinese clinical texts and other disease predictive tasks.

Longitudinal multimodal data, including electronic health records (EHR) and sequential chest X-rays (CXRs), is critical for modeling disease progression, yet remains underutilized due to two key challenges: (1) redundancy in consecutive CXR sequences, where static anatomical regions dominate over clinically-meaningful dynamics, and (2) temporal misalignment between sparse, irregular imaging and continuous EHR data. We introduce DiPro, a novel framework that addresses these challenges through region-aware disentanglement and multi-timescale alignment. First, we disentangle static (anatomy) and dynamic (pathology progression) features in sequential CXRs, prioritizing disease-relevant changes. Second, we hierarchically align these static and dynamic CXR features with asynchronous EHR data via local (pairwise interval-level) and global (full-sequence) synchronization to model coherent progression pathways. Extensive experiments on the MIMIC dataset demonstrate that DiPro could effectively extract temporal clinical dynamics and achieve state-of-the-art performance on both disease progression identification and general ICU prediction tasks.

Clinical monitoring of metastatic disease to the brain can be a laborious and time-consuming process, especially in cases involving multiple metastases when the assessment is performed manually. The Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology Brain Metastases (RANO-BM) guideline, which utilizes the unidimensional longest diameter, is commonly used in clinical and research settings to evaluate response to therapy in patients with brain metastases. However, accurate volumetric assessment of the lesion and surrounding peri-lesional edema holds significant importance in clinical decision-making and can greatly enhance outcome prediction. The unique challenge in performing segmentations of brain metastases lies in their common occurrence as small lesions. Detection and segmentation of lesions that are smaller than 10 mm in size has not demonstrated high accuracy in prior publications. The brain metastases challenge sets itself apart from previously conducted MICCAI challenges on glioma segmentation due to the significant variability in lesion size. Unlike gliomas, which tend to be larger on presentation scans, brain metastases exhibit a wide range of sizes and tend to include small lesions. We hope that the BraTS-METS dataset and challenge will advance the field of automated brain metastasis detection and segmentation.

Combining pre-trained expert models offers substantial potential for scalable multimodal reasoning, but building a unified framework remains challenging due to the increasing diversity of input modalities and task complexity. For instance, medical diagnosis requires precise reasoning over structured clinical tables, while financial forecasting depends on interpreting plot-based data to make informed predictions. To tackle this challenge, we introduce MEXA, a training-free framework that performs modality- and task-aware aggregation of multiple expert models to enable effective multimodal reasoning across diverse and distinct domains. MEXA dynamically selects expert models based on the input modality and the task-specific reasoning demands (i.e., skills). Each expert model, specialized in a modality task pair, generates interpretable textual reasoning outputs. MEXA then aggregates and reasons over these outputs using a Large Reasoning Model (LRM) to produce the final answer. This modular design allows flexible and transparent multimodal reasoning across diverse domains without additional training overhead. We extensively evaluate our approach on diverse multimodal benchmarks, including Video Reasoning, Audio Reasoning, 3D Understanding, and Medical QA. MEXA consistently delivers performance improvements over strong multimodal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness and broad applicability of our expert-driven selection and aggregation in diverse multimodal reasoning tasks.

Medical Visual Language Models have shown great potential in various healthcare applications, including medical image captioning and diagnostic assistance. However, most existing models rely on text-based instructions, limiting their usability in real-world clinical environments especially in scenarios such as surgery, text-based interaction is often impractical for physicians. In addition, current medical image analysis models typically lack comprehensive reasoning behind their predictions, which reduces their reliability for clinical decision-making. Given that medical diagnosis errors can have life-changing consequences, there is a critical need for interpretable and rational medical assistance. To address these challenges, we introduce an end-to-end speech-driven medical VLM, SilVar-Med, a multimodal medical image assistant that integrates speech interaction with VLMs, pioneering the task of voice-based communication for medical image analysis. In addition, we focus on the interpretation of the reasoning behind each prediction of medical abnormalities with a proposed reasoning dataset. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study for reasoning-driven medical image interpretation with end-to-end speech interaction. We believe this work will advance the field of medical AI by fostering more transparent, interactive, and clinically viable diagnostic support systems. Our code and dataset are publicly available at SiVar-Med.

Foundation models in computational pathology promise to unlock the development of new clinical decision support systems and models for precision medicine. However, there is a mismatch between most clinical analysis, which is defined at the level of one or more whole slide images, and foundation models to date, which process the thousands of image tiles contained in a whole slide image separately. The requirement to train a network to aggregate information across a large number of tiles in multiple whole slide images limits these models' impact. In this work, we present a slide-level foundation model for H&E-stained histopathology, PRISM, that builds on Virchow tile embeddings and leverages clinical report text for pre-training. Using the tile embeddings, PRISM produces slide-level embeddings with the ability to generate clinical reports, resulting in several modes of use. Using text prompts, PRISM achieves zero-shot cancer detection and sub-typing performance approaching and surpassing that of a supervised aggregator model. Using the slide embeddings with linear classifiers, PRISM surpasses supervised aggregator models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that fine-tuning of the PRISM slide encoder yields label-efficient training for biomarker prediction, a task that typically suffers from low availability of training data; an aggregator initialized with PRISM and trained on as little as 10% of the training data can outperform a supervised baseline that uses all of the data.

Providing high quality explanations for AI predictions based on machine learning is a challenging and complex task. To work well it requires, among other factors: selecting a proper level of generality/specificity of the explanation; considering assumptions about the familiarity of the explanation beneficiary with the AI task under consideration; referring to specific elements that have contributed to the decision; making use of additional knowledge (e.g. expert evidence) which might not be part of the prediction process; and providing evidence supporting negative hypothesis. Finally, the system needs to formulate the explanation in a clearly interpretable, and possibly convincing, way. Given these considerations, ANTIDOTE fosters an integrated vision of explainable AI, where low-level characteristics of the deep learning process are combined with higher level schemes proper of the human argumentation capacity. ANTIDOTE will exploit cross-disciplinary competences in deep learning and argumentation to support a broader and innovative view of explainable AI, where the need for high-quality explanations for clinical cases deliberation is critical. As a first result of the project, we publish the Antidote CasiMedicos dataset to facilitate research on explainable AI in general, and argumentation in the medical domain in particular.

Collective insights from a group of experts have always proven to outperform an individual's best diagnostic for clinical tasks. For the task of medical image segmentation, existing research on AI-based alternatives focuses more on developing models that can imitate the best individual rather than harnessing the power of expert groups. In this paper, we introduce a single diffusion model-based approach that produces multiple plausible outputs by learning a distribution over group insights. Our proposed model generates a distribution of segmentation masks by leveraging the inherent stochastic sampling process of diffusion using only minimal additional learning. We demonstrate on three different medical image modalities- CT, ultrasound, and MRI that our model is capable of producing several possible variants while capturing the frequencies of their occurrences. Comprehensive results show that our proposed approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art ambiguous segmentation networks in terms of accuracy while preserving naturally occurring variation. We also propose a new metric to evaluate the diversity as well as the accuracy of segmentation predictions that aligns with the interest of clinical practice of collective insights.

Accurate medical classification requires a large number of multi-modal data, and in many cases, different feature types. Previous studies have shown promising results when using multi-modal data, outperforming single-modality models when classifying diseases such as Alzheimer's Disease (AD). However, those models are usually not flexible enough to handle missing modalities. Currently, the most common workaround is discarding samples with missing modalities which leads to considerable data under-utilization. Adding to the fact that labeled medical images are already scarce, the performance of data-driven methods like deep learning can be severely hampered. Therefore, a multi-modal method that can handle missing data in various clinical settings is highly desirable. In this paper, we present Multi-Modal Mixing Transformer (3MAT), a disease classification transformer that not only leverages multi-modal data but also handles missing data scenarios. In this work, we test 3MT for AD and Cognitively normal (CN) classification and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) conversion prediction to progressive MCI (pMCI) or stable MCI (sMCI) using clinical and neuroimaging data. The model uses a novel Cascaded Modality Transformer architecture with cross-attention to incorporate multi-modal information for more informed predictions. We propose a novel modality dropout mechanism to ensure an unprecedented level of modality independence and robustness to handle missing data scenarios. The result is a versatile network that enables the mixing of arbitrary numbers of modalities with different feature types and also ensures full data utilization missing data scenarios. The model is trained and evaluated on the ADNI dataset with the SOTRA performance and further evaluated with the AIBL dataset with missing data.

In the pharmaceutical industry, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) has seen consistent growth over the past decade. This rise is attributed to major advancements in statistical machine learning methodologies, computational capabilities and the increased availability of large datasets. AI techniques are applied throughout different stages of drug development, ranging from drug discovery to post-marketing benefit-risk assessment. Kolluri et al. provided a review of several case studies that span these stages, featuring key applications such as protein structure prediction, success probability estimation, subgroup identification, and AI-assisted clinical trial monitoring. From a regulatory standpoint, there was a notable uptick in submissions incorporating AI components in 2021. The most prevalent therapeutic areas leveraging AI were oncology (27%), psychiatry (15%), gastroenterology (12%), and neurology (11%). The paradigm of personalized or precision medicine has gained significant traction in recent research, partly due to advancements in AI techniques hamburg2010path. This shift has had a transformative impact on the pharmaceutical industry. Departing from the traditional "one-size-fits-all" model, personalized medicine incorporates various individual factors, such as environmental conditions, lifestyle choices, and health histories, to formulate customized treatment plans. By utilizing sophisticated machine learning algorithms, clinicians and researchers are better equipped to make informed decisions in areas such as disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment selection, thereby optimizing health outcomes for each individual.

While data are the primary fuel for machine learning models, they often suffer from missing values, especially when collected in real-world scenarios. However, many off-the-shelf machine learning models, including artificial neural network models, are unable to handle these missing values directly. Therefore, extra data preprocessing and curation steps, such as data imputation, are inevitable before learning and prediction processes. In this study, we propose a simple and intuitive yet effective method for pruning missing values (PROMISSING) during learning and inference steps in neural networks. In this method, there is no need to remove or impute the missing values; instead, the missing values are treated as a new source of information (representing what we do not know). Our experiments on simulated data, several classification and regression benchmarks, and a multi-modal clinical dataset show that PROMISSING results in similar prediction performance compared to various imputation techniques. In addition, our experiments show models trained using PROMISSING techniques are becoming less decisive in their predictions when facing incomplete samples with many unknowns. This finding hopefully advances machine learning models from being pure predicting machines to more realistic thinkers that can also say "I do not know" when facing incomplete sources of information.