Daily Papers

Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous research into forecasting demand this domain has mostly used a collection of statistical techniques, with machine learning approaches only now beginning to emerge in recent literature. The forecasting problem for this domain is difficult and has also been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has introduced an additional complexity to this estimation due to typical demand patterns being disrupted. This study explores the ability of machine learning methods to generate accurate patient presentations at two large urgent care clinics located in Auckland, New Zealand. A number of machine learning algorithms were explored in order to determine the most effective technique for this problem domain, with the task of making forecasts of daily patient demand three months in advance. The study also performed an in-depth analysis into the model behaviour in respect to the exploration of which features are most effective at predicting demand and which features are capable of adaptation to the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The results showed that ensemble-based methods delivered the most accurate and consistent solutions on average, generating improvements in the range of 23%-27% over the existing in-house methods for estimating the daily demand.

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on the system, which is key for enabling adaptiveness to non-stationarities such as weather changes, market forces, or adversaries. We formalize this generalization of CBO as Adversarial Causal Bayesian Optimization (ACBO) and introduce the first algorithm for ACBO with bounded regret: Causal Bayesian Optimization with Multiplicative Weights (CBO-MW). Our approach combines a classical online learning strategy with causal modeling of the rewards. To achieve this, it computes optimistic counterfactual reward estimates by propagating uncertainty through the causal graph. We derive regret bounds for CBO-MW that naturally depend on graph-related quantities. We further propose a scalable implementation for the case of combinatorial interventions and submodular rewards. Empirically, CBO-MW outperforms non-causal and non-adversarial Bayesian optimization methods on synthetic environments and environments based on real-word data. Our experiments include a realistic demonstration of how CBO-MW can be used to learn users' demand patterns in a shared mobility system and reposition vehicles in strategic areas.

Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) promise to reduce congestion in future urban networks, potentially by optimizing their routing decisions. Unlike for human drivers, these decisions can be made with collective, data-driven policies, developed by machine learning algorithms. Reinforcement learning (RL) can facilitate the development of such collective routing strategies, yet standardized and realistic benchmarks are missing. To that end, we present : Urban Routing Benchmark for RL-equipped Connected Autonomous Vehicles. is a comprehensive benchmarking environment that unifies evaluation across 29 real-world traffic networks paired with realistic demand patterns. comes with a catalog of predefined tasks, four state-of-the-art multi-agent RL (MARL) algorithm implementations, three baseline methods, domain-specific performance metrics, and a modular configuration scheme. Our results suggest that, despite the lengthy and costly training, state-of-the-art MARL algorithms rarely outperformed humans. Experimental results reported in this paper initiate the first leaderboard for MARL in large-scale urban routing optimization and reveal that current approaches struggle to scale, emphasizing the urgent need for advancements in this domain.

Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model electricity prices without explicit causal interpretation or counterfactual reasoning capabilities. We introduce Augmented Time Series Causal Models (ATSCM) for energy markets, extending counterfactual reasoning frameworks to multivariate temporal data with learned causal structure. Our approach models energy systems through interpretable factors (weather, generation mix, demand patterns), rich grid dynamics, and observable market variables. We integrate neural causal discovery to learn time-varying causal graphs without requiring ground truth DAGs. Applied to real-world electricity price data, ATSCM enables novel counterfactual queries such as "What would prices be under different renewable generation scenarios?".

Privacy restrictions hinder the sharing of real-world Water Distribution Network (WDN) models, limiting the application of emerging data-driven machine learning, which typically requires extensive observations. To address this challenge, we propose the dataset DiTEC-WDN that comprises 36,000 unique scenarios simulated over either short-term (24 hours) or long-term (1 year) periods. We constructed this dataset using an automated pipeline that optimizes crucial parameters (e.g., pressure, flow rate, and demand patterns), facilitates large-scale simulations, and records discrete, synthetic but hydraulically realistic states under standard conditions via rule validation and post-hoc analysis. With a total of 228 million generated graph-based states, DiTEC-WDN can support a variety of machine-learning tasks, including graph-level, node-level, and link-level regression, as well as time-series forecasting. This contribution, released under a public license, encourages open scientific research in the critical water sector, eliminates the risk of exposing sensitive data, and fulfills the need for a large-scale water distribution network benchmark for study comparisons and scenario analysis.

Any optimization algorithm programming interface can be seen as a black-box function with additional free parameters. In this spirit, simulated annealing (SA) can be implemented in pseudo-code within the dimensions of a single slide with free parameters relating to the annealing schedule. Such an implementation, however, necessarily neglects much of the structure necessary to take advantage of advances in computing resources and algorithmic breakthroughs. Simulated annealing is often introduced in myriad disciplines, from discrete examples like the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) to molecular cluster potential energy exploration or even explorations of a protein's configurational space. Theoretical guarantees also demand a stricter structure in terms of statistical quantities, which cannot simply be left to the user. We will introduce several standard paradigms and demonstrate how these can be "lifted" into a unified framework using object-oriented programming in Python. We demonstrate how clean, interoperable, reproducible programming libraries can be used to access and rapidly iterate on variants of Simulated Annealing in a manner which can be extended to serve as a best practices blueprint or design pattern for a data-driven optimization library.

With the rapidly increasing demand for oriented object detection (OOD), recent research involving weakly-supervised detectors for learning rotated box (RBox) from the horizontal box (HBox) has attracted more and more attention. In this paper, we explore a more challenging yet label-efficient setting, namely single point-supervised OOD, and present our approach called Point2RBox. Specifically, we propose to leverage two principles: 1) Synthetic pattern knowledge combination: By sampling around each labeled point on the image, we spread the object feature to synthetic visual patterns with known boxes to provide the knowledge for box regression. 2) Transform self-supervision: With a transformed input image (e.g. scaled/rotated), the output RBoxes are trained to follow the same transformation so that the network can perceive the relative size/rotation between objects. The detector is further enhanced by a few devised techniques to cope with peripheral issues, e.g. the anchor/layer assignment as the size of the object is not available in our point supervision setting. To our best knowledge, Point2RBox is the first end-to-end solution for point-supervised OOD. In particular, our method uses a lightweight paradigm, yet it achieves a competitive performance among point-supervised alternatives, 41.05%/27.62%/80.01% on DOTA/DIOR/HRSC datasets.

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

As the globalization of semiconductor design and manufacturing processes continues, the demand for defect detection during integrated circuit fabrication stages is becoming increasingly critical, playing a significant role in enhancing the yield of semiconductor products. Traditional wafer map defect pattern detection methods involve manual inspection using electron microscopes to collect sample images, which are then assessed by experts for defects. This approach is labor-intensive and inefficient. Consequently, there is a pressing need to develop a model capable of automatically detecting defects as an alternative to manual operations. In this paper, we propose a method that initially employs a pre-trained VAE model to obtain the fault distribution information of the wafer map. This information serves as guidance, combined with the original image set for semi-supervised model training. During the semi-supervised training, we utilize a teacher-student network for iterative learning. The model presented in this paper is validated on the benchmark dataset WM-811K wafer dataset. The experimental results demonstrate superior classification accuracy and detection performance compared to state-of-the-art models, fulfilling the requirements for industrial applications. Compared to the original architecture, we have achieved significant performance improvement.

Cognitive textual and visual reasoning tasks, such as puzzles, series, and analogies, demand the ability to quickly reason, decipher, and evaluate patterns both textually and spatially. While LLMs and VLMs, through extensive training on large amounts of human-curated data, have attained a high level of pseudo-human intelligence in some common sense reasoning tasks, they still struggle with more complex reasoning tasks that require cognitive understanding. In this work, we introduce a new dataset, NTSEBench, designed to evaluate the cognitive multi-modal reasoning and problem-solving skills of large models. The dataset comprises 2,728 multiple-choice questions comprising of a total of 4,642 images across 26 categories sampled from the NTSE examination conducted nationwide in India, featuring both visual and textual general aptitude questions that do not rely on rote learning. We establish baselines on the dataset using state-of-the-art LLMs and VLMs. To facilitate a comparison between open source and propriety models, we propose four distinct modeling strategies to handle different modalities (text and images) in the dataset instances.

Toxicity in digital media poses significant challenges, yet little attention has been given to its dynamics within the rapidly growing medium of podcasts. This paper addresses this gap by analyzing political podcast data to study the emergence and propagation of toxicity, focusing on conversation chains-structured reply patterns within podcast transcripts. Leveraging state-of-the-art transcription models and advanced conversational analysis techniques, we systematically examine toxic discourse in over 30 popular political podcasts in the United States. Our key contributions include: (1) creating a comprehensive dataset of transcribed and diarized political podcasts, identifying thousands of toxic instances using Google's Perspective API, (2) uncovering concerning trends where a majority of episodes contain at least one toxic instance, (3) introducing toxic conversation chains and analyzing their structural and linguistic properties, revealing characteristics such as longer durations, repetitive patterns, figurative language, and emotional cues tied to anger and annoyance, (4) identifying demand-related words like 'want', 'like', and 'know' as precursors to toxicity, and (5) developing predictive models to anticipate toxicity shifts based on annotated change points. Our findings provide critical insights into podcast toxicity and establish a foundation for future research on real-time monitoring and intervention mechanisms to foster healthier discourse in this influential medium.