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Nov 19

Towards Characterizing Domain Counterfactuals For Invertible Latent Causal Models

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 20, 2023

Discovering Hierarchical Latent Capabilities of Language Models via Causal Representation Learning

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 12 2

Think-at-Hard: Selective Latent Iterations to Improve Reasoning Language Models

Improving reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), especially under parameter constraints, is crucial for real-world applications. Prior work proposes recurrent transformers, which allocate a fixed number of extra iterations per token to improve generation quality. After the first, standard forward pass, instead of verbalization, last-layer hidden states are fed back as inputs for additional iterations to refine token predictions. Yet we identify a latent overthinking phenomenon: easy token predictions that are already correct after the first pass are sometimes revised into errors in additional iterations. To address this, we propose Think-at-Hard (TaH), a dynamic latent thinking method that iterates deeper only at hard tokens. It employs a lightweight neural decider to trigger latent iterations only at tokens that are likely incorrect after the standard forward pass. During latent iterations, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) modules shift the LLM objective from general next-token prediction to focused hard-token refinement. We further introduce a duo-causal attention mechanism that extends attention from the token sequence dimension to an additional iteration depth dimension. This enables cross-iteration information flow while maintaining full sequential parallelism. Experiments show that TaH boosts LLM reasoning performance across five challenging benchmarks while maintaining the same parameter count. Compared with baselines that iterate twice for all output tokens, TaH delivers 8.1-11.3% accuracy gains while exempting 94% of tokens from the second iteration. Against strong single-iteration Qwen3 models finetuned with the same data, it also delivers 4.0-5.0% accuracy gains. When allowing less than 3% additional parameters from LoRA and the iteration decider, the gains increase to 8.5-12.6% and 5.3-5.4%, respectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/thu-nics/TaH.

Causal Diffusion Autoencoders: Toward Counterfactual Generation via Diffusion Probabilistic Models

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 26, 2024

Approaching an unknown communication system by latent space exploration and causal inference

This paper proposes a methodology for discovering meaningful properties in data by exploring the latent space of unsupervised deep generative models. We combine manipulation of individual latent variables to extreme values with methods inspired by causal inference into an approach we call causal disentanglement with extreme values (CDEV) and show that this method yields insights for model interpretability. With this, we can test for what properties of unknown data the model encodes as meaningful, using it to glean insight into the communication system of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), one of the most intriguing and understudied animal communication systems. The network architecture used has been shown to learn meaningful representations of speech; here, it is used as a learning mechanism to decipher the properties of another vocal communication system in which case we have no ground truth. The proposed methodology suggests that sperm whales encode information using the number of clicks in a sequence, the regularity of their timing, and audio properties such as the spectral mean and the acoustic regularity of the sequences. Some of these findings are consistent with existing hypotheses, while others are proposed for the first time. We also argue that our models uncover rules that govern the structure of units in the communication system and apply them while generating innovative data not shown during training. This paper suggests that an interpretation of the outputs of deep neural networks with causal inference methodology can be a viable strategy for approaching data about which little is known and presents another case of how deep learning can limit the hypothesis space. Finally, the proposed approach can be extended to other architectures and datasets.

Ego-centric Predictive Model Conditioned on Hand Trajectories

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 27

VideoCanvas: Unified Video Completion from Arbitrary Spatiotemporal Patches via In-Context Conditioning

We introduce the task of arbitrary spatio-temporal video completion, where a video is generated from arbitrary, user-specified patches placed at any spatial location and timestamp, akin to painting on a video canvas. This flexible formulation naturally unifies many existing controllable video generation tasks--including first-frame image-to-video, inpainting, extension, and interpolation--under a single, cohesive paradigm. Realizing this vision, however, faces a fundamental obstacle in modern latent video diffusion models: the temporal ambiguity introduced by causal VAEs, where multiple pixel frames are compressed into a single latent representation, making precise frame-level conditioning structurally difficult. We address this challenge with VideoCanvas, a novel framework that adapts the In-Context Conditioning (ICC) paradigm to this fine-grained control task with zero new parameters. We propose a hybrid conditioning strategy that decouples spatial and temporal control: spatial placement is handled via zero-padding, while temporal alignment is achieved through Temporal RoPE Interpolation, which assigns each condition a continuous fractional position within the latent sequence. This resolves the VAE's temporal ambiguity and enables pixel-frame-aware control on a frozen backbone. To evaluate this new capability, we develop VideoCanvasBench, the first benchmark for arbitrary spatio-temporal video completion, covering both intra-scene fidelity and inter-scene creativity. Experiments demonstrate that VideoCanvas significantly outperforms existing conditioning paradigms, establishing a new state of the art in flexible and unified video generation.

KlingTeam Kling Team
·
Oct 9 2

Causal Disentanglement for Robust Long-tail Medical Image Generation

Counterfactual medical image generation effectively addresses data scarcity and enhances the interpretability of medical images. However, due to the complex and diverse pathological features of medical images and the imbalanced class distribution in medical data, generating high-quality and diverse medical images from limited data is significantly challenging. Additionally, to fully leverage the information in limited data, such as anatomical structure information and generate more structurally stable medical images while avoiding distortion or inconsistency. In this paper, in order to enhance the clinical relevance of generated data and improve the interpretability of the model, we propose a novel medical image generation framework, which generates independent pathological and structural features based on causal disentanglement and utilizes text-guided modeling of pathological features to regulate the generation of counterfactual images. First, we achieve feature separation through causal disentanglement and analyze the interactions between features. Here, we introduce group supervision to ensure the independence of pathological and identity features. Second, we leverage a diffusion model guided by pathological findings to model pathological features, enabling the generation of diverse counterfactual images. Meanwhile, we enhance accuracy by leveraging a large language model to extract lesion severity and location from medical reports. Additionally, we improve the performance of the latent diffusion model on long-tailed categories through initial noise optimization.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 19