Daily Papers

The rapid advancement of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has extended CLIP-based frameworks to produce powerful, universal embeddings for retrieval tasks. However, existing methods primarily focus on natural images, offering limited support for other crucial visual modalities such as videos and visual documents. To bridge this gap, we introduce RzenEmbed, a unified framework to learn embeddings across a diverse set of modalities, including text, images, videos, and visual documents. We employ a novel two-stage training strategy to learn discriminative representations. The first stage focuses on foundational text and multimodal retrieval. In the second stage, we introduce an improved InfoNCE loss, incorporating two key enhancements. Firstly, a hardness-weighted mechanism guides the model to prioritize challenging samples by assigning them higher weights within each batch. Secondly, we implement an approach to mitigate the impact of false negatives and alleviate data noise. This strategy not only enhances the model's discriminative power but also improves its instruction-following capabilities. We further boost performance with learnable temperature parameter and model souping. RzenEmbed sets a new state-of-the-art on the MMEB benchmark. It not only achieves the best overall score but also outperforms all prior work on the challenging video and visual document retrieval tasks. Our models are available in https://huggingface.co/qihoo360/RzenEmbed.

Neural network calibration is an essential task in deep learning to ensure consistency between the confidence of model prediction and the true correctness likelihood. In this paper, we propose a new post-processing calibration method called Neural Clamping, which employs a simple joint input-output transformation on a pre-trained classifier via a learnable universal input perturbation and an output temperature scaling parameter. Moreover, we provide theoretical explanations on why Neural Clamping is provably better than temperature scaling. Evaluated on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet image recognition datasets and a variety of deep neural network models, our empirical results show that Neural Clamping significantly outperforms state-of-the-art post-processing calibration methods.

The temperature parameter plays a profound role during training and/or inference with large foundation models (LFMs) such as large language models (LLMs) and CLIP models. Particularly, it adjusts the logits in the softmax function in LLMs, which is crucial for next token generation, and it scales the similarities in the contrastive loss for training CLIP models. A significant question remains: Is it viable to learn a neural network to predict a personalized temperature of any input data for enhancing LFMs"? In this paper, we present a principled framework for learning a small yet generalizable temperature prediction network (TempNet) to improve LFMs. Our solution is composed of a novel learning framework with a robust loss underpinned by constrained distributionally robust optimization (DRO), and a properly designed TempNet with theoretical inspiration. TempNet can be trained together with a large foundation model from scratch or learned separately given a pretrained foundation model. It is not only useful for predicting personalized temperature to promote the training of LFMs but also generalizable and transferable to new tasks. Our experiments on LLMs and CLIP models demonstrate that TempNet greatly improves the performance of existing solutions or models, e.g. Table 1. The code to reproduce the experimental results in this paper can be found at https://github.com/zhqiu/TempNet.

During language model decoding, it is known that using higher temperature sampling gives more creative responses, while lower temperatures are more factually accurate. However, such models are commonly applied to general instruction following, which involves both creative and fact seeking tasks, using a single fixed temperature across all examples and tokens. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Decoding, a layer added to the model to select the sampling temperature dynamically at inference time, at either the token or example level, in order to optimize performance. To learn its parameters we introduce Latent Preference Optimization (LPO) a general approach to train discrete latent variables such as choices of temperature. Our method outperforms all fixed decoding temperatures across a range of tasks that require different temperatures, including UltraFeedback, Creative Story Writing, and GSM8K.

In this paper, we aim to optimize a contrastive loss with individualized temperatures in a principled and systematic manner for self-supervised learning. The common practice of using a global temperature parameter tau ignores the fact that ``not all semantics are created equal", meaning that different anchor data may have different numbers of samples with similar semantics, especially when data exhibits long-tails. First, we propose a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO), providing us an intuition about the effect of tau and a mechanism for automatic temperature individualization. Then, we propose an efficient stochastic algorithm for optimizing the robust contrastive loss with a provable convergence guarantee without using large mini-batch sizes. Theoretical and experimental results show that our algorithm automatically learns a suitable tau for each sample. Specifically, samples with frequent semantics use large temperatures to keep local semantic structures, while samples with rare semantics use small temperatures to induce more separable features. Our method not only outperforms prior strong baselines (e.g., SimCLR, CLIP) on unimodal and bimodal datasets with larger improvements on imbalanced data but also is less sensitive to hyper-parameters. To our best knowledge, this is the first methodical approach to optimizing a contrastive loss with individualized temperatures.

We consider the issue of calibration in large language models (LLM). Recent studies have found that common interventions such as instruction tuning often result in poorly calibrated LLMs. Although calibration is well-explored in traditional applications, calibrating LLMs is uniquely challenging. These challenges stem as much from the severe computational requirements of LLMs as from their versatility, which allows them to be applied to diverse tasks. Addressing these challenges, we propose THERMOMETER, a calibration approach tailored to LLMs. THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model, given data from multiple tasks, for calibrating a LLM. It is computationally efficient, preserves the accuracy of the LLM, and produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks. Extensive empirical evaluations across various benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Machine learning methods can be a valuable aid in the scientific process, but they need to face challenging settings where data come from inhomogeneous experimental conditions. Recent meta-learning methods have made significant progress in multi-task learning, but they rely on black-box neural networks, resulting in high computational costs and limited interpretability. Leveraging the structure of the learning problem, we argue that multi-environment generalization can be achieved using a simpler learning model, with an affine structure with respect to the learning task. Crucially, we prove that this architecture can identify the physical parameters of the system, enabling interpreable learning. We demonstrate the competitive generalization performance and the low computational cost of our method by comparing it to state-of-the-art algorithms on physical systems, ranging from toy models to complex, non-analytical systems. The interpretability of our method is illustrated with original applications to physical-parameter-induced adaptation and to adaptive control.

Large language models (LLMs) can improve reasoning at inference time through test-time scaling (TTS), where multiple reasoning traces are generated and the best one is selected. Prior work shows that increasing the number of samples K steadily improves accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that this trend does not hold indefinitely: at large K, further scaling yields no gains, and certain hard questions remain unsolved regardless of the number of traces. Interestingly, we find that different sampling temperatures solve different subsets of problems, implying that single-temperature scaling explores only part of a model's potential. We therefore propose scaling along the temperature dimension, which enlarges the reasoning boundary of LLMs. Averaged over Qwen3 (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B, 8B) and five representative reasoning benchmarks (AIME 2024/2025, MATH500, LiveCodeBench, Hi-ToM), temperature scaling yields an additional 7.3 points over single-temperature TTS. Temperature scaling also enables base models to reach performance comparable to reinforcement learning (RL)-trained counterparts, without additional post-training. We further provide a comprehensive analysis of this phenomenon and design a multi-temperature voting method that reduces the overhead of temperature scaling. Overall, our findings suggest that TTS is more powerful than previously thought, and that temperature scaling offers a simple and effective way to unlock the latent potential of base models.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) trains a smaller student model using a large, pre-trained teacher model, with temperature as a key hyperparameter controlling the softness of output probabilities. Traditional methods use a fixed temperature throughout training, which is suboptimal. Moreover, architectural differences between teacher and student often result in mismatched logit magnitudes. We demonstrate that students benefit from softer probabilities early in training but require sharper probabilities in later stages. We introduce Dynamic Temperature Scheduler (DTS), which adjusts temperature dynamically based on the cross-entropy loss gap between teacher and student. To our knowledge, this is the first temperature scheduling method that adapts based on the divergence between teacher and student distributions. Our method integrates seamlessly with existing KD frameworks. We validate DTS across multiple KD strategies on vision (CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet) and NLP tasks (GLUE, Dolly, SelfIns, UnNI, S-NI), consistently outperforming static-temperature baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/Sibgat-Ul/DTS.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding performance across a wide range of downstream language tasks. Temperature sampling is a commonly used decoding strategy for LLMs' generation process. However, a fixed temperature parameter is used in most cases, which may not always be an optimal choice for balancing generation quality and diversity. In this paper, we propose an effective Entropy-based Dynamic Temperature (EDT) Sampling method, to achieve a more balanced performance in terms of both generation quality and diversity by dynamically selecting the temperature parameter. Additionally, we also show model performance and comprehensive analyses for 4 different generation benchmarks. Our experiments show that EDT significantly outperforms the existing strategies across different tasks.

This paper presents a practical investigation into fine-tuning model parameters for mathematical reasoning tasks through experimenting with various configurations including randomness control, reasoning depth, and sampling strategies, careful tuning demonstrates substantial improvements in efficiency as well as performance. A holistically optimized framework is introduced for five state-of-the-art models on mathematical reasoning tasks, exhibiting significant performance boosts while maintaining solution correctness. Through systematic parameter optimization across Qwen2.5-72B, Llama-3.1-70B, DeepSeek-V3, Mixtral-8x22B, and Yi-Lightning, consistent efficiency gains are demonstrated with 100% optimization success rate. The methodology achieves an average 29.4% reduction in computational cost and 23.9% improvement in inference speed across all tested models. This framework systematically searches parameter spaces including temperature (0.1-0.5), reasoning steps (4-12), planning periods (1-4), and nucleus sampling (0.85-0.98), determining optimal configurations through testing on mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Critical findings show that lower temperature regimes (0.1-0.4) and reduced reasoning steps (4-6) consistently enhance efficiency without compromising accuracy. DeepSeek-V3 achieves the highest accuracy at 98%, while Mixtral-8x22B delivers the most cost-effective performance at 361.5 tokens per accurate response. Key contributions include: (1) the first comprehensive optimization study for five diverse SOTA models in mathematical reasoning, (2) a standardized production-oriented parameter optimization framework, (3) discovery of universal optimization trends applicable across model architectures, and (4) production-ready configurations with extensive performance characterization.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Dense-to-sparse gating mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become an effective alternative to a well-known sparse MoE. Rather than fixing the number of activated experts as in the latter model, which could limit the investigation of potential experts, the former model utilizes the temperature to control the softmax weight distribution and the sparsity of the MoE during training in order to stabilize the expert specialization. Nevertheless, while there are previous attempts to theoretically comprehend the sparse MoE, a comprehensive analysis of the dense-to-sparse gating MoE has remained elusive. Therefore, we aim to explore the impacts of the dense-to-sparse gate on the maximum likelihood estimation under the Gaussian MoE in this paper. We demonstrate that due to interactions between the temperature and other model parameters via some partial differential equations, the convergence rates of parameter estimations are slower than any polynomial rates, and could be as slow as O(1/log(n)), where n denotes the sample size. To address this issue, we propose using a novel activation dense-to-sparse gate, which routes the output of a linear layer to an activation function before delivering them to the softmax function. By imposing linearly independence conditions on the activation function and its derivatives, we show that the parameter estimation rates are significantly improved to polynomial rates.

As deep neural networks become adopted in high-stakes domains, it is crucial to be able to identify when inference inputs are Out-of-Distribution (OOD) so that users can be alerted of likely drops in performance and calibration despite high confidence. Among many others, existing methods use the following two scores to do so without training on any apriori OOD examples: a learned temperature and an energy score. In this paper we introduce Ablated Learned Temperature Energy (or "AbeT" for short), a method which combines these prior methods in novel ways with effective modifications. Due to these contributions, AbeT lowers the False Positive Rate at 95% True Positive Rate (FPR@95) by 35.39% in classification (averaged across all ID and OOD datasets measured) compared to state of the art without training networks in multiple stages or requiring hyperparameters or test-time backward passes. We additionally provide empirical insights as to how our model learns to distinguish between In-Distribution (ID) and OOD samples while only being explicitly trained on ID samples via exposure to misclassified ID examples at training time. Lastly, we show the efficacy of our method in identifying predicted bounding boxes and pixels corresponding to OOD objects in object detection and semantic segmentation, respectively - with an AUROC increase of 5.15% in object detection and both a decrease in FPR@95 of 41.48% and an increase in AUPRC of 34.20% on average in semantic segmentation compared to previous state of the art.

Knowledge distillation (KD) has been widely used for model compression and knowledge transfer. Typically, a big teacher model trained on sufficient data transfers knowledge to a small student model. However, despite the success of KD, little effort has been made to study whether KD leaks the training data of the teacher model. In this paper, we experimentally reveal that KD suffers from the risk of privacy leakage. To alleviate this issue, we propose a novel knowledge distillation method, swing distillation, which can effectively protect the private information of the teacher model from flowing to the student model. In our framework, the temperature coefficient is dynamically and adaptively adjusted according to the degree of private information contained in the data, rather than a predefined constant hyperparameter. It assigns different temperatures to tokens according to the likelihood that a token in a position contains private information. In addition, we inject noise into soft targets provided to the student model, in order to avoid unshielded knowledge transfer. Experiments on multiple datasets and tasks demonstrate that the proposed swing distillation can significantly reduce (by over 80% in terms of canary exposure) the risk of privacy leakage in comparison to KD with competitive or better performance. Furthermore, swing distillation is robust against the increasing privacy budget.

Precise determination of thermodynamic parameters in ultracold Bose gases remains challenging due to the destructive nature of conventional measurement techniques and inherent experimental uncertainties. We demonstrate an artificial intelligence approach for rapid, non-destructive estimation of the chemical potential and temperature from single-shot, in situ imaged density profiles of finite-temperature Bose gases. Our convolutional neural network is trained exclusively on quasi-2D `pancake' condensates in harmonic trap configurations. It achieves parameter extraction within fractions of a second. The model also demonstrates zero-shot generalisation across both trap geometry and thermalisation dynamics, successfully estimating thermodynamic parameters for toroidally trapped condensates with errors of only a few nanokelvin despite no prior exposure to such geometries during training, and maintaining predictive accuracy during dynamic thermalisation processes after a relatively brief evolution without explicit training on non-equilibrium states. These results suggest that supervised learning can overcome traditional limitations in ultracold atom thermometry, with extension to broader geometric configurations, temperature ranges, and additional parameters potentially enabling comprehensive real-time analysis of quantum gas experiments. Such capabilities could significantly streamline experimental workflows whilst improving measurement precision across a range of quantum fluid systems.

Previous literature offers limited clues on how to learn a periodic function using modern neural networks. We start with a study of the extrapolation properties of neural networks; we prove and demonstrate experimentally that the standard activations functions, such as ReLU, tanh, sigmoid, along with their variants, all fail to learn to extrapolate simple periodic functions. We hypothesize that this is due to their lack of a "periodic" inductive bias. As a fix of this problem, we propose a new activation, namely, x + sin^2(x), which achieves the desired periodic inductive bias to learn a periodic function while maintaining a favorable optimization property of the ReLU-based activations. Experimentally, we apply the proposed method to temperature and financial data prediction.

A key property of reasoning systems is the ability to make sharp decisions on their input data. For contemporary AI systems, a key carrier of sharp behaviour is the softmax function, with its capability to perform differentiable query-key lookups. It is a common belief that the predictive power of networks leveraging softmax arises from "circuits" which sharply perform certain kinds of computations consistently across many diverse inputs. However, for these circuits to be robust, they would need to generalise well to arbitrary valid inputs. In this paper, we dispel this myth: even for tasks as simple as finding the maximum key, any learned circuitry must disperse as the number of items grows at test time. We attribute this to a fundamental limitation of the softmax function to robustly approximate sharp functions, prove this phenomenon theoretically, and propose adaptive temperature as an ad-hoc technique for improving the sharpness of softmax at inference time.

In this work, we investigate the synergy between supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) in developing strong reasoning models. We begin by curating the SFT training data through two scaling strategies: increasing the number of collected prompts and the number of generated responses per prompt. Both approaches yield notable improvements in reasoning performance, with scaling the number of prompts resulting in more substantial gains. We then explore the following questions regarding the synergy between SFT and RL: (i) Does a stronger SFT model consistently lead to better final performance after large-scale RL training? (ii) How can we determine an appropriate sampling temperature during RL training to effectively balance exploration and exploitation for a given SFT initialization? Our findings suggest that (i) holds true, provided effective RL training is conducted, particularly when the sampling temperature is carefully chosen to maintain the temperature-adjusted entropy around 0.3, a setting that strikes a good balance between exploration and exploitation. Notably, the performance gap between initial SFT models narrows significantly throughout the RL process. Leveraging a strong SFT foundation and insights into the synergistic interplay between SFT and RL, our AceReason-Nemotron-1.1 7B model significantly outperforms AceReason-Nemotron-1.0 and achieves new state-of-the-art performance among Qwen2.5-7B-based reasoning models on challenging math and code benchmarks, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness of our post-training recipe. We release the model and data at: https://huggingface.co/nvidia/AceReason-Nemotron-1.1-7B

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We present a neural network emulator to constrain the thermal parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at 5.4z6.0 using the Lyman-displaystylealpha (Lydisplaystylealpha) forest flux auto-correlation function. Our auto-differentiable JAX-based framework accelerates the surrogate model generation process using approximately 100 sparsely sampled Nyx hydrodynamical simulations with varying combinations of thermal parameters, i.e., the temperature at mean density T_{{0}}, the slope of the temperaturedisplaystyle-density relation displaystylegamma, and the mean transmission flux langle{F}{rangle}. We show that this emulator has a typical accuracy of 1.0% across the specified redshift range. Bayesian inference of the IGM thermal parameters, incorporating emulator uncertainty propagation, is further expedited using NumPyro Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We compare both the inference results and computational cost of our framework with the traditional nearest-neighbor interpolation approach applied to the same set of mock Lyalpha flux. By examining the credibility contours of the marginalized posteriors for T_{{0}},gamma,and{langle}{F}{rangle} obtained using the emulator, the statistical reliability of measurements is established through inference on 100 realistic mock data sets of the auto-correlation function.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

As a technique to bridge logit matching and probability distribution matching, temperature scaling plays a pivotal role in knowledge distillation (KD). Conventionally, temperature scaling is applied to both teacher's logits and student's logits in KD. Motivated by some recent works, in this paper, we drop instead temperature scaling on the student side, and systematically study the resulting variant of KD, dubbed transformed teacher matching (TTM). By reinterpreting temperature scaling as a power transform of probability distribution, we show that in comparison with the original KD, TTM has an inherent R\'enyi entropy term in its objective function, which serves as an extra regularization term. Extensive experiment results demonstrate that thanks to this inherent regularization, TTM leads to trained students with better generalization than the original KD. To further enhance student's capability to match teacher's power transformed probability distribution, we introduce a sample-adaptive weighting coefficient into TTM, yielding a novel distillation approach dubbed weighted TTM (WTTM). It is shown, by comprehensive experiments, that although WTTM is simple, it is effective, improves upon TTM, and achieves state-of-the-art accuracy performance. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zkxufo/TTM.

Unsupervised contrastive learning has achieved outstanding success, while the mechanism of contrastive loss has been less studied. In this paper, we concentrate on the understanding of the behaviours of unsupervised contrastive loss. We will show that the contrastive loss is a hardness-aware loss function, and the temperature {\tau} controls the strength of penalties on hard negative samples. The previous study has shown that uniformity is a key property of contrastive learning. We build relations between the uniformity and the temperature {\tau} . We will show that uniformity helps the contrastive learning to learn separable features, however excessive pursuit to the uniformity makes the contrastive loss not tolerant to semantically similar samples, which may break the underlying semantic structure and be harmful to the formation of features useful for downstream tasks. This is caused by the inherent defect of the instance discrimination objective. Specifically, instance discrimination objective tries to push all different instances apart, ignoring the underlying relations between samples. Pushing semantically consistent samples apart has no positive effect for acquiring a prior informative to general downstream tasks. A well-designed contrastive loss should have some extents of tolerance to the closeness of semantically similar samples. Therefore, we find that the contrastive loss meets a uniformity-tolerance dilemma, and a good choice of temperature can compromise these two properties properly to both learn separable features and tolerant to semantically similar samples, improving the feature qualities and the downstream performances.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted data science workflows, giving rise to specialized data science agents designed to automate analytical tasks. Despite rapid adoption, systematic benchmarks evaluating the efficacy and limitations of these agents remain scarce. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark specifically crafted to reflect real-world user interactions with data science agents by observing usage of our commercial applications. We evaluate three LLMs: Claude-4.0-Sonnet, Gemini-2.5-Flash, and OpenAI-o4-Mini across three approaches: zero-shot with context engineering, multi-step with context engineering, and with SmolAgent. Our benchmark assesses performance across a diverse set of eight data science task categories, additionally exploring the sensitivity of models to common prompting issues, such as data leakage and slightly ambiguous instructions. We further investigate the influence of temperature parameters on overall and task-specific outcomes for each model and approach. Our findings reveal distinct performance disparities among the evaluated models and methodologies, highlighting critical factors that affect practical deployment. The benchmark dataset and evaluation framework introduced herein aim to provide a foundation for future research of more robust and effective data science agents.

The equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability is a fundamental phenomenon in learning theory. With variants ranging from classical settings like PAC learning and regression to recent trends such as adversarially robust learning, it's surprising that we still lack a unified theory; traditional proofs of the equivalence tend to be disparate, and rely on strong model-specific assumptions like uniform convergence and sample compression. In this work, we give the first model-independent framework explaining the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability: a three-line blackbox reduction that simplifies, unifies, and extends our understanding across a wide variety of settings. This includes models with no known characterization of learnability such as learning with arbitrary distributional assumptions and more general loss functions, as well as a host of other popular settings such as robust learning, partial learning, fair learning, and the statistical query model. More generally, we argue that the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learning is actually a special case of a broader phenomenon we call property generalization: any desirable property of a learning algorithm (e.g. noise tolerance, privacy, stability) that can be satisfied over finite hypothesis classes extends (possibly in some variation) to any learnable hypothesis class.

Large language models (LLMs) are applied to all sorts of creative tasks, and their outputs vary from beautiful, to peculiar, to pastiche, into plain plagiarism. The temperature parameter of an LLM regulates the amount of randomness, leading to more diverse outputs; therefore, it is often claimed to be the creativity parameter. Here, we investigate this claim using a narrative generation task with a predetermined fixed context, model and prompt. Specifically, we present an empirical analysis of the LLM output for different temperature values using four necessary conditions for creativity in narrative generation: novelty, typicality, cohesion, and coherence. We find that temperature is weakly correlated with novelty, and unsurprisingly, moderately correlated with incoherence, but there is no relationship with either cohesion or typicality. However, the influence of temperature on creativity is far more nuanced and weak than suggested by the "creativity parameter" claim; overall results suggest that the LLM generates slightly more novel outputs as temperatures get higher. Finally, we discuss ideas to allow more controlled LLM creativity, rather than relying on chance via changing the temperature parameter.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly considered as tutoring aids in science education. Yet their readiness for unsupervised use in undergraduate instruction remains uncertain, as reliable teaching requires more than fluent recall: it demands consistent, principle-grounded reasoning. Thermodynamics, with its compact laws and subtle distinctions between state and path functions, reversibility, and entropy, provides an ideal testbed for evaluating such capabilities. Here we present UTQA, a 50-item undergraduate thermodynamics question answering benchmark, covering ideal-gas processes, reversibility, and diagram interpretation. No leading 2025-era model exceeded our 95\% competence threshold: the best LLMs achieved 82\% accuracy, with text-only items performing better than image reasoning tasks, which often fell to chance levels. Prompt phrasing and syntactic complexity showed modest to little correlation with performance. The gap concentrates in finite-rate/irreversible scenarios and in binding visual features to thermodynamic meaning, indicating that current LLMs are not yet suitable for unsupervised tutoring in this domain.

Reliably reconstructing physical fields from sparse sensor data is a challenge that frequently arises in many scientific domains. In practice, the process generating the data often is not understood to sufficient accuracy. Therefore, there is a growing interest in using the deep neural network route to address the problem. This work presents a novel approach that learns a continuous representation of the physical field using implicit neural representations (INRs). Specifically, after factorizing spatiotemporal variability into spatial and temporal components using the separation of variables technique, the method learns relevant basis functions from sparsely sampled irregular data points to develop a continuous representation of the data. In experimental evaluations, the proposed model outperforms recent INR methods, offering superior reconstruction quality on simulation data from a state-of-the-art climate model and a second dataset that comprises ultra-high resolution satellite-based sea surface temperature fields.

Thermal comfort inside buildings is a well-studied field where human judgment for thermal comfort is collected and may be used for automatic thermal comfort estimation. However, indoor scenarios are rather static in terms of thermal state changes and, thus, cannot be applied to dynamic conditions, e.g., inside a vehicle. In this work, we present our findings of a gap between building and in-vehicle scenarios regarding thermal comfort estimation. We provide evidence by comparing deep neural classifiers for thermal comfort estimation for indoor and in-vehicle conditions. Further, we introduce a temporal dataset for indoor predictions incorporating 31 input signals and self-labeled user ratings by 18 subjects in a self-built climatic chamber. For in-vehicle scenarios, we acquired a second dataset featuring human judgments from 20 subjects in a BMW 3 Series. Our experimental results indicate superior performance for estimations from time series data over single vector input. Leveraging modern machine learning architectures enables us to recognize human thermal comfort states and estimate future states automatically. We provide details on training a recurrent network-based classifier and perform an initial performance benchmark of the proposed dataset. Ultimately, we compare our collected dataset to publicly available thermal comfort datasets.

Temperature sampling is a conventional approach to diversify large language model predictions. As temperature increases, the prediction becomes diverse but also vulnerable to hallucinations -- generating tokens that are sensible but not factual. One common approach to mitigate hallucinations is to provide source/grounding documents and the model is trained to produce predictions that bind to and are attributable to the provided source. It appears that there is a trade-off between diversity and attribution. To mitigate any such trade-off, we propose to relax the constraint of having a fixed temperature over decoding steps, and a mechanism to guide the dynamic temperature according to its relevance to the source through KL-divergence. Our experiments justifies the trade-off, and shows that our sampling algorithm outperforms the conventional top-k and top-p algorithms in conversational question-answering and summarization tasks.

State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) serves as a crucial phase in aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) to specific task prerequisites. The selection of fine-tuning data profoundly influences the model's performance, whose principle is traditionally grounded in data quality and distribution. In this paper, we introduce a new dimension in SFT data selection: learnability. This new dimension is motivated by the intuition that SFT unlocks capabilities acquired by a LLM during the pretraining phase. Given that different pretrained models have disparate capabilities, the SFT data appropriate for one may not suit another. Thus, we introduce the term learnability to define the suitability of data for effective learning by the model. We present the Loss Based SFT Data Selection (LoBaSS) method, utilizing data learnability as the principal criterion for the selection SFT data. This method provides a nuanced approach, allowing the alignment of data selection with inherent model capabilities, ensuring optimal compatibility and learning efficiency. In experimental comparisons involving 7B and 13B models, our LoBaSS method is able to surpass full-data fine-tuning at merely 6% of the total training data. When employing 16.7% of the data, LoBaSS harmonizes the model's capabilities across conversational and mathematical domains, proving its efficacy and adaptability.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Contrastive learning (CL) continuously achieves significant breakthroughs across multiple domains. However, the most common InfoNCE-based methods suffer from some dilemmas, such as uniformity-tolerance dilemma (UTD) and gradient reduction, both of which are related to a P_{ij} term. It has been identified that UTD can lead to unexpected performance degradation. We argue that the fixity of temperature is to blame for UTD. To tackle this challenge, we enrich the CL loss family by presenting a Model-Aware Contrastive Learning (MACL) strategy, whose temperature is adaptive to the magnitude of alignment that reflects the basic confidence of the instance discrimination task, then enables CL loss to adjust the penalty strength for hard negatives adaptively. Regarding another dilemma, the gradient reduction issue, we derive the limits of an involved gradient scaling factor, which allows us to explain from a unified perspective why some recent approaches are effective with fewer negative samples, and summarily present a gradient reweighting to escape this dilemma. Extensive remarkable empirical results in vision, sentence, and graph modality validate our approach's general improvement for representation learning and downstream tasks.

In order to make accurate predictions of material properties, current machine-learning approaches generally require large amounts of data, which are often not available in practice. In this work, an all-round framework is presented which relies on a feedforward neural network, the selection of physically-meaningful features and, when applicable, joint-learning. Next to being faster in terms of training time, this approach is shown to outperform current graph-network models on small datasets. In particular, the vibrational entropy at 305 K of crystals is predicted with a mean absolute test error of 0.009 meV/K/atom (four times lower than previous studies). Furthermore, joint-learning reduces the test error compared to single-target learning and enables the prediction of multiple properties at once, such as temperature functions. Finally, the selection algorithm highlights the most important features and thus helps understanding the underlying physics.

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended beta-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly increasing in size, with the number of parameters becoming a key factor in the success of many commercial models, such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Bard. Even the recently released publicly accessible models for commercial usage, such as Falcon and Llama2, come equipped with billions of parameters. This significant increase in the number of parameters makes deployment and operation very costly. The remarkable progress in the field of quantization for large neural networks in general and LLMs in particular, has made these models more accessible by enabling them to be deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Quantized models generally demonstrate comparable performance levels to their unquantized base counterparts. Nonetheless, there exists a notable gap in our comprehensive understanding of how these quantized models respond to hyperparameters, such as temperature, max new tokens, and topk, particularly for next word prediction. The present analysis reveals that nf4 and fp4 are equally proficient 4-bit quantization techniques, characterized by similar attributes such as inference speed, memory consumption, and the quality of generated content. the study identifies nf4 as displaying greater resilience to temperature variations in the case of the llama2 series of models at lower temperature, while fp4 and fp4-dq proves to be a more suitable choice for falcon series of models. It is noteworthy that, in general, 4-bit quantized models of varying sizes exhibit higher sensitivity to temperature in the range of 0.5 to 0.8, unlike their unquantized counterparts. Additionally, int8 quantization is associated with significantly slower inference speeds, whereas unquantized bfloat16 models consistently yield the fastest inference speeds across models of all sizes.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

We explore a data-driven approach for learning to optimize neural networks. We construct a dataset of neural network checkpoints and train a generative model on the parameters. In particular, our model is a conditional diffusion transformer that, given an initial input parameter vector and a prompted loss, error, or return, predicts the distribution over parameter updates that achieve the desired metric. At test time, it can optimize neural networks with unseen parameters for downstream tasks in just one update. We find that our approach successfully generates parameters for a wide range of loss prompts. Moreover, it can sample multimodal parameter solutions and has favorable scaling properties. We apply our method to different neural network architectures and tasks in supervised and reinforcement learning.

Deep learning has been successful in automating the design of features in machine learning pipelines. However, the algorithms optimizing neural network parameters remain largely hand-designed and computationally inefficient. We study if we can use deep learning to directly predict these parameters by exploiting the past knowledge of training other networks. We introduce a large-scale dataset of diverse computational graphs of neural architectures - DeepNets-1M - and use it to explore parameter prediction on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. By leveraging advances in graph neural networks, we propose a hypernetwork that can predict performant parameters in a single forward pass taking a fraction of a second, even on a CPU. The proposed model achieves surprisingly good performance on unseen and diverse networks. For example, it is able to predict all 24 million parameters of a ResNet-50 achieving a 60% accuracy on CIFAR-10. On ImageNet, top-5 accuracy of some of our networks approaches 50%. Our task along with the model and results can potentially lead to a new, more computationally efficient paradigm of training networks. Our model also learns a strong representation of neural architectures enabling their analysis.

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

The o1-Like LLMs are transforming AI by simulating human cognitive processes, but their performance in multilingual machine translation (MMT) remains underexplored. This study examines: (1) how o1-Like LLMs perform in MMT tasks and (2) what factors influence their translation quality. We evaluate multiple o1-Like LLMs and compare them with traditional models like ChatGPT and GPT-4o. Results show that o1-Like LLMs establish new multilingual translation benchmarks, with DeepSeek-R1 surpassing GPT-4o in contextless tasks. They demonstrate strengths in historical and cultural translation but exhibit a tendency for rambling issues in Chinese-centric outputs. Further analysis reveals three key insights: (1) High inference costs and slower processing speeds make complex translation tasks more resource-intensive. (2) Translation quality improves with model size, enhancing commonsense reasoning and cultural translation. (3) The temperature parameter significantly impacts output quality-lower temperatures yield more stable and accurate translations, while higher temperatures reduce coherence and precision.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

Weather forecasting is one of the cornerstones of meteorological work. In this paper, we present a new benchmark dataset named Weather2K, which aims to make up for the deficiencies of existing weather forecasting datasets in terms of real-time, reliability, and diversity, as well as the key bottleneck of data quality. To be specific, our Weather2K is featured from the following aspects: 1) Reliable and real-time data. The data is hourly collected from 2,130 ground weather stations covering an area of 6 million square kilometers. 2) Multivariate meteorological variables. 20 meteorological factors and 3 constants for position information are provided with a length of 40,896 time steps. 3) Applicable to diverse tasks. We conduct a set of baseline tests on time series forecasting and spatio-temporal forecasting. To the best of our knowledge, our Weather2K is the first attempt to tackle weather forecasting task by taking full advantage of the strengths of observation data from ground weather stations. Based on Weather2K, we further propose Meteorological Factors based Multi-Graph Convolution Network (MFMGCN), which can effectively construct the intrinsic correlation among geographic locations based on meteorological factors. Sufficient experiments show that MFMGCN improves both the forecasting performance and temporal robustness. We hope our Weather2K can significantly motivate researchers to develop efficient and accurate algorithms to advance the task of weather forecasting. The dataset can be available at https://github.com/bycnfz/weather2k/.

We present Quasar-1, a novel architecture that introduces temperature-guided reasoning to large language models through the Token Temperature Mechanism (TTM) and Guided Sequence of Thought (GSoT). Our approach leverages the concept of hot and cold tokens, where hot tokens are prioritized for their contextual relevance, while cold tokens provide supplementary information. This dynamic modulation of token importance enables the model to achieve superior logical reasoning capabilities compared to traditional chain-of-thought approaches. Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we prove that our temperature-guided attention mechanism converges to optimal reasoning paths with exponential guarantees. Empirical results show significant improvements in reasoning accuracy and computational efficiency across a wide range of tasks, making advanced AI reasoning accessible to a broader range of applications.

Modern machine learning algorithms, especially deep learning based techniques, typically involve careful hyperparameter tuning to achieve the best performance. Despite the surge of intense interest in practical techniques like Bayesian optimization and random search based approaches to automating this laborious and compute intensive task, the fundamental learning theoretic complexity of tuning hyperparameters for deep neural networks is poorly understood. Inspired by this glaring gap, we initiate the formal study of hyperparameter tuning complexity in deep learning through a recently introduced data driven setting. We assume that we have a series of deep learning tasks, and we have to tune hyperparameters to do well on average over the distribution of tasks. A major difficulty is that the utility function as a function of the hyperparameter is very volatile and furthermore, it is given implicitly by an optimization problem over the model parameters. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new technique to characterize the discontinuities and oscillations of the utility function on any fixed problem instance as we vary the hyperparameter; our analysis relies on subtle concepts including tools from differential/algebraic geometry and constrained optimization. This can be used to show that the learning theoretic complexity of the corresponding family of utility functions is bounded. We instantiate our results and provide sample complexity bounds for concrete applications tuning a hyperparameter that interpolates neural activation functions and setting the kernel parameter in graph neural networks.

The approximation of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) using neural networks has seen significant advancements through Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Despite their straightforward optimization framework and flexibility in implementing various PDEs, PINNs often suffer from limited accuracy due to the spectral bias of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), which struggle to effectively learn high-frequency and non-linear components. Recently, parametric mesh representations in combination with neural networks have been investigated as a promising approach to eliminate the inductive biases of neural networks. However, they usually require very high-resolution grids and a large number of collocation points to achieve high accuracy while avoiding overfitting issues. In addition, the fixed positions of the mesh parameters restrict their flexibility, making it challenging to accurately approximate complex PDEs. To overcome these limitations, we propose Physics-Informed Gaussians (PIGs), which combine feature embeddings using Gaussian functions with a lightweight neural network. Our approach uses trainable parameters for the mean and variance of each Gaussian, allowing for dynamic adjustment of their positions and shapes during training. This adaptability enables our model to optimally approximate PDE solutions, unlike models with fixed parameter positions. Furthermore, the proposed approach maintains the same optimization framework used in PINNs, allowing us to benefit from their excellent properties. Experimental results show the competitive performance of our model across various PDEs, demonstrating its potential as a robust tool for solving complex PDEs. Our project page is available at https://namgyukang.github.io/Physics-Informed-Gaussians/

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the essential steps to guarantee the convergence of machine learning models. We argue that intuition about the optimal choice of hyperparameters for stochastic gradient descent can be obtained by studying a neural network's phase diagram, in which each phase is characterised by distinctive dynamics of the singular values of weight matrices. Taking inspiration from disordered systems, we start from the observation that the loss landscape of a multilayer neural network with mean squared error can be interpreted as a disordered system in feature space, where the learnt features are mapped to soft spin degrees of freedom, the initial variance of the weight matrices is interpreted as the strength of the disorder, and temperature is given by the ratio of the learning rate and the batch size. As the model is trained, three phases can be identified, in which the dynamics of weight matrices is qualitatively different. Employing a Langevin equation for stochastic gradient descent, previously derived using Dyson Brownian motion, we demonstrate that the three dynamical regimes can be classified effectively, providing practical guidance for the choice of hyperparameters of the optimiser.

Adversarial training has been widely used to enhance the robustness of neural network models against adversarial attacks. Despite the popularity of neural network models, a significant gap exists between the natural and robust accuracy of these models. In this paper, we identify one of the primary reasons for this gap is the common use of one-hot vectors as labels, which hinders the learning process for image recognition. Representing ambiguous images with one-hot vectors is imprecise and may lead the model to suboptimal solutions. To overcome this issue, we propose a novel method called Low Temperature Distillation (LTD) that generates soft labels using the modified knowledge distillation framework. Unlike previous approaches, LTD uses a relatively low temperature in the teacher model and fixed, but different temperatures for the teacher and student models. This modification boosts the model's robustness without encountering the gradient masking problem that has been addressed in defensive distillation. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed LTD method combined with previous techniques, achieving robust accuracy rates of 58.19%, 31.13%, and 42.08% on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet data sets, respectively, without additional unlabeled data.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet its success hinges on effective exploration. An ideal exploration strategy must navigate two fundamental challenges: it must preserve sample quality while also ensuring training stability. While standard fixed-temperature sampling is simple, it struggles to balance these competing demands, as high temperatures degrade sample quality and low temperatures limit discovery. In this work, we propose a simpler and more effective strategy, Exploratory Annealed Decoding (EAD), grounded in the insight that exploration is most impactful on early tokens which define a sequence's semantic direction. EAD implements an intuitive **explore-at-the-beginning, exploit-at-the-end** strategy by annealing the sampling temperature from high to low during generation. This dynamic schedule encourages meaningful, high-level diversity at the start, then gradually lowers the temperature to preserve sample quality and keep the sampling distribution close to the target policy, which is essential for stable training. We demonstrate that EAD is a lightweight, plug-and-play method that significantly improves sample efficiency, consistently outperforming fixed-temperature sampling across various RLVR algorithms and model sizes. Our work suggests that aligning exploration with the natural dynamics of sequential generation offers a robust path to improving LLM reasoning.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Urbanization, climate change, and agricultural stress are increasing the demand for precise and timely environmental monitoring. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable in this context and is retrieved from remote sensing satellites. However, these systems face a trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution. While spatio-temporal fusion methods offer promising solutions, few have addressed the estimation of daily LST at 10 m resolution. In this study, we present WGAST, a Weakly-Supervised Generative Network for Daily 10 m LST Estimation via Spatio-Temporal Fusion of Terra MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2. WGAST is the first end-to-end deep learning framework designed for this task. It adopts a conditional generative adversarial architecture, with a generator composed of four stages: feature extraction, fusion, LST reconstruction, and noise suppression. The first stage employs a set of encoders to extract multi-level latent representations from the inputs, which are then fused in the second stage using cosine similarity, normalization, and temporal attention mechanisms. The third stage decodes the fused features into high-resolution LST, followed by a Gaussian filter to suppress high-frequency noise. Training follows a weakly supervised strategy based on physical averaging principles and reinforced by a PatchGAN discriminator. Experiments demonstrate that WGAST outperforms existing methods in both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Compared to the best-performing baseline, on average, WGAST reduces RMSE by 17.18% and improves SSIM by 11.00%. Furthermore, WGAST is robust to cloud-induced LST and effectively captures fine-scale thermal patterns, as validated against 33 ground-based sensors. The code is available at https://github.com/Sofianebouaziz1/WGAST.git.

We show that deep neural networks (DNNs) can efficiently learn any composition of functions with bounded F_{1}-norm, which allows DNNs to break the curse of dimensionality in ways that shallow networks cannot. More specifically, we derive a generalization bound that combines a covering number argument for compositionality, and the F_{1}-norm (or the related Barron norm) for large width adaptivity. We show that the global minimizer of the regularized loss of DNNs can fit for example the composition of two functions f^{*}=hcirc g from a small number of observations, assuming g is smooth/regular and reduces the dimensionality (e.g. g could be the modulo map of the symmetries of f^{*}), so that h can be learned in spite of its low regularity. The measures of regularity we consider is the Sobolev norm with different levels of differentiability, which is well adapted to the F_{1} norm. We compute scaling laws empirically and observe phase transitions depending on whether g or h is harder to learn, as predicted by our theory.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Robust and effective scaling of models from small to large width typically requires the precise adjustment of many algorithmic and architectural details, such as parameterization and optimizer choices. In this work, we propose a new perspective on parameterization by investigating a key assumption in prior work about the alignment between parameters and data and derive new theoretical results under weaker assumptions and a broader set of optimizers. Our extensive empirical investigation includes tens of thousands of models trained with all combinations of three optimizers, four parameterizations, several alignment assumptions, more than a dozen learning rates, and fourteen model sizes up to 26.8B parameters. We find that the best learning rate scaling prescription would often have been excluded by the assumptions in prior work. Our results show that all parameterizations, not just maximal update parameterization (muP), can achieve hyperparameter transfer; moreover, our novel per-layer learning rate prescription for standard parameterization outperforms muP. Finally, we demonstrate that an overlooked aspect of parameterization, the epsilon parameter in Adam, must be scaled correctly to avoid gradient underflow and propose Adam-atan2, a new numerically stable, scale-invariant version of Adam that eliminates the epsilon hyperparameter entirely.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck for many prediction tasks in agriculture, epidemiology, and climate science. WeatherFormer was pretrained on a large pretraining dataset comprised of 39 years of satellite measurements across the Americas. With a novel pretraining task and fine-tuning, WeatherFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting. Technical innovations include a unique spatiotemporal encoding that captures geographical, annual, and seasonal variations, adapting the transformer architecture to continuous weather data, and a pretraining strategy to learn representations that are robust to missing weather features. This paper for the first time demonstrates the effectiveness of pretraining large transformer encoder models for weather-dependent applications across multiple domains.

Data availability across domains often follows a long-tail distribution: a few domains have abundant data, while most face dat . a scarcity. This imbalance poses challenges in training language models uniformly across all domains. In our study, we focus on multilingual settings, where data sizes vary significantly between high- and low-resource languages. Common strategies to address this include upsampling low-resource languages (Temperature Sampling) or upweighting their loss (Scalarization). Although often considered equivalent, this assumption has not been proven, which motivates our study. Through both theoretical and empirical analysis, we identify the conditions under which these approaches are equivalent and when they diverge. Specifically, we demonstrate that these two methods are equivalent under full gradient descent, but this equivalence breaks down with stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, we observe that Temperature Sampling converges more quickly but is prone to overfitting. We argue that this faster convergence is likely due to the lower variance in gradient estimations, as shown theoretically. Based on these insights, we propose Cooldown, a strategy that reduces sampling temperature during training, accelerating convergence without overfitting to low-resource languages. Our method is competitive with existing data re-weighting and offers computational efficiency.

Active preference learning offers an efficient approach to modeling preferences, but it is hindered by the cold-start problem, which leads to a marked decline in performance when no initial labeled data are available. While cold-start solutions have been proposed for domains such as vision and text, the cold-start problem in active preference learning remains largely unexplored, underscoring the need for practical, effective methods. Drawing inspiration from established practices in social and economic research, the proposed method initiates learning with a self-supervised phase that employs Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to generate initial pseudo-labels. This process produces a warmed-up model based solely on the data's intrinsic structure, without requiring expert input. The model is then refined through an active learning loop that strategically queries a simulated noisy oracle for labels. Experiments conducted on various socio-economic datasets, including those related to financial credibility, career success rate, and socio-economic status, consistently show that the PCA-driven approach outperforms standard active learning strategies that start without prior information. This work thus provides a computationally efficient and straightforward solution that effectively addresses the cold-start problem.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful approach for optimizing complex and expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Its importance is underscored in many applications, notably including hyperparameter tuning, but its efficacy depends on efficiently balancing exploration and exploitation. While there has been substantial progress in BO methods, striking this balance remains a delicate process. In this light, we present LLAMBO, a novel approach that integrates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLM) within BO. At a high level, we frame the BO problem in natural language, enabling LLMs to iteratively propose and evaluate promising solutions conditioned on historical evaluations. More specifically, we explore how combining contextual understanding, few-shot learning proficiency, and domain knowledge of LLMs can improve model-based BO. Our findings illustrate that LLAMBO is effective at zero-shot warmstarting, and enhances surrogate modeling and candidate sampling, especially in the early stages of search when observations are sparse. Our approach is performed in context and does not require LLM finetuning. Additionally, it is modular by design, allowing individual components to be integrated into existing BO frameworks, or function cohesively as an end-to-end method. We empirically validate LLAMBO's efficacy on the problem of hyperparameter tuning, highlighting strong empirical performance across a range of diverse benchmarks, proprietary, and synthetic tasks.

We show that training a single d-dimensional steering vector per layer with reinforcement learning, while freezing all base weights, matches the accuracy of fully RL-tuned reasoning models on mathematical-reasoning tasks. On an 8 billion-parameter model this adds only approx 0.0016% additional parameters and reproduces performance across a range of base models and mathematical-reasoning benchmarks. These results tighten the upper bound on the parameter budget required for high-level chain-of-thought reasoning, indicating that millions of adapter weights are unnecessary. The minimal trainable footprint reduces optimizer memory and inter-GPU communication, lowering the overall cost of fine-tuning. Moreover, a logit-lens analysis shows that the learned vectors amplify coherent token directions, providing clearer insight into the model's internal computations.

Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) is concerned with the development of learned emulators of physical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDE). In application domains such as weather forecasting, molecular dynamics, and inverse design, ML-based surrogate models are increasingly used to augment or replace inefficient and often non-differentiable numerical simulation algorithms. While a number of ML-based methods for approximating the solutions of PDEs have been proposed in recent years, they typically do not adapt to the parameters of the PDEs, making it difficult to generalize to PDE parameters not seen during training. We propose a Channel Attention mechanism guided by PDE Parameter Embeddings (CAPE) component for neural surrogate models and a simple yet effective curriculum learning strategy. The CAPE module can be combined with neural PDE solvers allowing them to adapt to unseen PDE parameters. The curriculum learning strategy provides a seamless transition between teacher-forcing and fully auto-regressive training. We compare CAPE in conjunction with the curriculum learning strategy using a popular PDE benchmark and obtain consistent and significant improvements over the baseline models. The experiments also show several advantages of CAPE, such as its increased ability to generalize to unseen PDE parameters without large increases inference time and parameter count.

Creating programs to correctly manipulate data is a difficult task, as the underlying programming languages and APIs can be challenging to learn for many users who are not skilled programmers. Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable potential for generating code from natural language, but in the data manipulation domain, apart from the natural language (NL) description of the intended task, we also have the dataset on which the task is to be performed, or the "data context". Existing approaches have utilized data context in a limited way by simply adding relevant information from the input data into the prompts sent to the LLM. In this work, we utilize the available input data to execute the candidate programs generated by the LLMs and gather their outputs. We introduce semantic reranking, a technique to rerank the programs generated by LLMs based on three signals coming the program outputs: (a) semantic filtering and well-formedness based score tuning: do programs even generate well-formed outputs, (b) semantic interleaving: how do the outputs from different candidates compare to each other, and (c) output-based score tuning: how do the outputs compare to outputs predicted for the same task. We provide theoretical justification for semantic interleaving. We also introduce temperature mixing, where we combine samples generated by LLMs using both high and low temperatures. We extensively evaluate our approach in three domains, namely databases (SQL), data science (Pandas) and business intelligence (Excel's Power Query M) on a variety of new and existing benchmarks. We observe substantial gains across domains, with improvements of up to 45% in top-1 accuracy and 34% in top-3 accuracy.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Although deep learning has produced dazzling successes for applications of image, speech, and video processing in the past few years, most trainings are with suboptimal hyper-parameters, requiring unnecessarily long training times. Setting the hyper-parameters remains a black art that requires years of experience to acquire. This report proposes several efficient ways to set the hyper-parameters that significantly reduce training time and improves performance. Specifically, this report shows how to examine the training validation/test loss function for subtle clues of underfitting and overfitting and suggests guidelines for moving toward the optimal balance point. Then it discusses how to increase/decrease the learning rate/momentum to speed up training. Our experiments show that it is crucial to balance every manner of regularization for each dataset and architecture. Weight decay is used as a sample regularizer to show how its optimal value is tightly coupled with the learning rates and momentums. Files to help replicate the results reported here are available.

Limited labeled data makes it hard to train models from scratch in medical domain, and an important paradigm is pre-training and then fine-tuning. Large pre-trained models contain rich representations, which can be adapted to downstream medical tasks. However, existing methods either tune all the parameters or the task-specific layers of the pre-trained models, ignoring the input variations of medical images, and thus they are not efficient or effective. In this work, we aim to study parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) for medical image analysis, and propose a dynamic visual prompt tuning method, named DVPT. It can extract knowledge beneficial to downstream tasks from large models with a few trainable parameters. Firstly, the frozen features are transformed by an lightweight bottleneck layer to learn the domain-specific distribution of downstream medical tasks, and then a few learnable visual prompts are used as dynamic queries and then conduct cross-attention with the transformed features, attempting to acquire sample-specific knowledge that are suitable for each sample. Finally, the features are projected to original feature dimension and aggregated with the frozen features. This DVPT module can be shared between different Transformer layers, further reducing the trainable parameters. To validate DVPT, we conduct extensive experiments with different pre-trained models on medical classification and segmentation tasks. We find such PEFT method can not only efficiently adapt the pre-trained models to the medical domain, but also brings data efficiency with partial labeled data. For example, with 0.5\% extra trainable parameters, our method not only outperforms state-of-the-art PEFT methods, even surpasses the full fine-tuning by more than 2.20\% Kappa score on medical classification task. It can saves up to 60\% labeled data and 99\% storage cost of ViT-B/16.

The automatic extraction of materials and related properties from the scientific literature is gaining attention in data-driven materials science (Materials Informatics). In this paper, we discuss Grobid-superconductors, our solution for automatically extracting superconductor material names and respective properties from text. Built as a Grobid module, it combines machine learning and heuristic approaches in a multi-step architecture that supports input data as raw text or PDF documents. Using Grobid-superconductors, we built SuperCon2, a database of 40324 materials and properties records from 37700 papers. The material (or sample) information is represented by name, chemical formula, and material class, and is characterized by shape, doping, substitution variables for components, and substrate as adjoined information. The properties include the Tc superconducting critical temperature and, when available, applied pressure with the Tc measurement method.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

Hyperthermia (HT) in combination with radio- and/or chemotherapy has become an accepted cancer treatment for distinct solid tumour entities. In HT, tumour tissue is exogenously heated to temperatures between 39 and 43 ^circC for 60 minutes. Temperature monitoring can be performed non-invasively using dynamic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, the slow nature of MRI leads to motion artefacts in the images due to the movements of patients during image acquisition. By discarding parts of the data, the speed of the acquisition can be increased - known as undersampling. However, due to the invalidation of the Nyquist criterion, the acquired images might be blurry and can also produce aliasing artefacts. The aim of this work was, therefore, to reconstruct highly undersampled MR thermometry acquisitions with better resolution and with fewer artefacts compared to conventional methods. The use of deep learning in the medical field has emerged in recent times, and various studies have shown that deep learning has the potential to solve inverse problems such as MR image reconstruction. However, most of the published work only focuses on the magnitude images, while the phase images are ignored, which are fundamental requirements for MR thermometry. This work, for the first time, presents deep learning-based solutions for reconstructing undersampled MR thermometry data. Two different deep learning models have been employed here, the Fourier Primal-Dual network and the Fourier Primal-Dual UNet, to reconstruct highly undersampled complex images of MR thermometry. The method reduced the temperature difference between the undersampled MRIs and the fully sampled MRIs from 1.3 ^circC to 0.6 ^circC in full volume and 0.49 ^circC to 0.06 ^circC in the tumour region for an acceleration factor of 10.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

Climate change is expected to intensify and increase extreme events in the weather cycle. Since this has a significant impact on various sectors of our life, recent works are concerned with identifying and predicting such extreme events from Earth observations. With respect to wildfire danger forecasting, previous deep learning approaches duplicate static variables along the time dimension and neglect the intrinsic differences between static and dynamic variables. Furthermore, most existing multi-branch architectures lose the interconnections between the branches during the feature learning stage. To address these issues, this paper proposes a 2D/3D two-branch convolutional neural network (CNN) with a Location-aware Adaptive Normalization layer (LOAN). Using LOAN as a building block, we can modulate the dynamic features conditional on their geographical locations. Thus, our approach considers feature properties as a unified yet compound 2D/3D model. Besides, we propose using the sinusoidal-based encoding of the day of the year to provide the model with explicit temporal information about the target day within the year. Our experimental results show a better performance of our approach than other baselines on the challenging FireCube dataset. The results show that location-aware adaptive feature normalization is a promising technique to learn the relation between dynamic variables and their geographic locations, which is highly relevant for areas where remote sensing data builds the basis for analysis. The source code is available at https://github.com/HakamShams/LOAN.

When training large flexible models, practitioners often rely on grid search to select hyperparameters that control over-fitting. This grid search has several disadvantages: the search is computationally expensive, requires carving out a validation set that reduces the available data for training, and requires users to specify candidate values. In this paper, we propose an alternative: directly learning regularization hyperparameters on the full training set via the evidence lower bound ("ELBo") objective from variational methods. For deep neural networks with millions of parameters, we recommend a modified ELBo that upweights the influence of the data likelihood relative to the prior. Our proposed technique overcomes all three disadvantages of grid search. In a case study on transfer learning of image classifiers, we show how our method reduces the 88+ hour grid search of past work to under 3 hours while delivering comparable accuracy. We further demonstrate how our approach enables efficient yet accurate approximations of Gaussian processes with learnable length-scale kernels.

Detecting and attributing temperature increases due to climate change is crucial for understanding global warming and guiding adaptation strategies. The complexity of distinguishing human-induced climate signals from natural variability has challenged traditional detection and attribution (D&A) approaches, which seek to identify specific "fingerprints" in climate response variables. Deep learning offers potential for discerning these complex patterns in expansive spatial datasets. However, lack of standard protocols has hindered consistent comparisons across studies. We introduce ClimDetect, a standardized dataset of over 816k daily climate snapshots, designed to enhance model accuracy in identifying climate change signals. ClimDetect integrates various input and target variables used in past research, ensuring comparability and consistency. We also explore the application of vision transformers (ViT) to climate data, a novel and modernizing approach in this context. Our open-access data and code serve as a benchmark for advancing climate science through improved model evaluations. ClimDetect is publicly accessible via Huggingface dataet respository at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ClimDetect/ClimDetect.

Hyperparameter optimization can be formulated as a bilevel optimization problem, where the optimal parameters on the training set depend on the hyperparameters. We aim to adapt regularization hyperparameters for neural networks by fitting compact approximations to the best-response function, which maps hyperparameters to optimal weights and biases. We show how to construct scalable best-response approximations for neural networks by modeling the best-response as a single network whose hidden units are gated conditionally on the regularizer. We justify this approximation by showing the exact best-response for a shallow linear network with L2-regularized Jacobian can be represented by a similar gating mechanism. We fit this model using a gradient-based hyperparameter optimization algorithm which alternates between approximating the best-response around the current hyperparameters and optimizing the hyperparameters using the approximate best-response function. Unlike other gradient-based approaches, we do not require differentiating the training loss with respect to the hyperparameters, allowing us to tune discrete hyperparameters, data augmentation hyperparameters, and dropout probabilities. Because the hyperparameters are adapted online, our approach discovers hyperparameter schedules that can outperform fixed hyperparameter values. Empirically, our approach outperforms competing hyperparameter optimization methods on large-scale deep learning problems. We call our networks, which update their own hyperparameters online during training, Self-Tuning Networks (STNs).

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

This manuscript considers the problem of learning a random Gaussian network function using a fully connected network with frozen intermediate layers and trainable readout layer. This problem can be seen as a natural generalization of the widely studied random features model to deeper architectures. First, we prove Gaussian universality of the test error in a ridge regression setting where the learner and target networks share the same intermediate layers, and provide a sharp asymptotic formula for it. Establishing this result requires proving a deterministic equivalent for traces of the deep random features sample covariance matrices which can be of independent interest. Second, we conjecture the asymptotic Gaussian universality of the test error in the more general setting of arbitrary convex losses and generic learner/target architectures. We provide extensive numerical evidence for this conjecture, which requires the derivation of closed-form expressions for the layer-wise post-activation population covariances. In light of our results, we investigate the interplay between architecture design and implicit regularization.

Rapid detection and well-timed intervention are essential to mitigate the impacts of wildfires. Leveraging remote sensed data from satellite networks and advanced AI models to automatically detect hotspots (i.e., thermal anomalies caused by active fires) is an effective way to build wildfire monitoring systems. In this work, we propose a novel dataset containing time series of remotely sensed data related to European fire events and a Self-Supervised Learning (SSL)-based model able to analyse multi-temporal data and identify hotspots in potentially near real time. We train and evaluate the performance of our model using our dataset and Thraws, a dataset of thermal anomalies including several fire events, obtaining an F1 score of 63.58.

The performance of an algorithm often critically depends on its parameter configuration. While a variety of automated algorithm configuration methods have been proposed to relieve users from the tedious and error-prone task of manually tuning parameters, there is still a lot of untapped potential as the learned configuration is static, i.e., parameter settings remain fixed throughout the run. However, it has been shown that some algorithm parameters are best adjusted dynamically during execution, e.g., to adapt to the current part of the optimization landscape. Thus far, this is most commonly achieved through hand-crafted heuristics. A promising recent alternative is to automatically learn such dynamic parameter adaptation policies from data. In this article, we give the first comprehensive account of this new field of automated dynamic algorithm configuration (DAC), present a series of recent advances, and provide a solid foundation for future research in this field. Specifically, we (i) situate DAC in the broader historical context of AI research; (ii) formalize DAC as a computational problem; (iii) identify the methods used in prior-art to tackle this problem; (iv) conduct empirical case studies for using DAC in evolutionary optimization, AI planning, and machine learning.

A number of different architectures and loss functions have been applied to the problem of self-supervised learning (SSL), with the goal of developing embeddings that provide the best possible pre-training for as-yet-unknown, lightly supervised downstream tasks. One of these SSL criteria is to maximize the entropy of a set of embeddings in some compact space. But the goal of maximizing the embedding entropy often depends--whether explicitly or implicitly--upon high dimensional entropy estimates, which typically perform poorly in more than a few dimensions. In this paper, we motivate an effective entropy maximization criterion (E2MC), defined in terms of easy-to-estimate, low-dimensional constraints. We demonstrate that using it to continue training an already-trained SSL model for only a handful of epochs leads to a consistent and, in some cases, significant improvement in downstream performance. We perform careful ablation studies to show that the improved performance is due to the proposed add-on criterion. We also show that continued pre-training with alternative criteria does not lead to notable improvements, and in some cases, even degrades performance.

Reasoning large language models (LLMs) excel in complex tasks, which has drawn significant attention to reinforcement learning (RL) for LLMs. However, existing approaches allocate an equal number of rollouts to all questions during the RL process, which is inefficient. This inefficiency stems from the fact that training on simple questions yields limited gains, whereas more rollouts are needed for challenging questions to sample correct answers. Furthermore, while RL improves response precision, it limits the model's exploration ability, potentially resulting in a performance cap below that of the base model prior to RL. To address these issues, we propose a mechanism for dynamically allocating rollout budgets based on the difficulty of the problems, enabling more efficient RL training. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive dynamic temperature adjustment strategy to maintain the entropy at a stable level, thereby encouraging sufficient exploration. This enables LLMs to improve response precision while preserving their exploratory ability to uncover potential correct pathways. The code and data is available on: https://github.com/LiaoMengqi/E3-RL4LLMs

Training neural networks requires increasing amounts of memory. Parameter sharing can reduce memory and communication costs, but existing methods assume networks have many identical layers and utilize hand-crafted sharing strategies that fail to generalize. We introduce Neural Parameter Allocation Search (NPAS), a novel task where the goal is to train a neural network given an arbitrary, fixed parameter budget. NPAS covers both low-budget regimes, which produce compact networks, as well as a novel high-budget regime, where additional capacity can be added to boost performance without increasing inference FLOPs. To address NPAS, we introduce Shapeshifter Networks (SSNs), which automatically learn where and how to share parameters in a network to support any parameter budget without requiring any changes to the architecture or loss function. NPAS and SSNs provide a complete framework for addressing generalized parameter sharing, and can also be combined with prior work for additional performance gains. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using nine network architectures across four diverse tasks, including ImageNet classification and transformers.

We present a differentiable approach to learn the probabilistic factors used for inference by a nonparametric belief propagation algorithm. Existing nonparametric belief propagation methods rely on domain-specific features encoded in the probabilistic factors of a graphical model. In this work, we replace each crafted factor with a differentiable neural network enabling the factors to be learned using an efficient optimization routine from labeled data. By combining differentiable neural networks with an efficient belief propagation algorithm, our method learns to maintain a set of marginal posterior samples using end-to-end training. We evaluate our differentiable nonparametric belief propagation (DNBP) method on a set of articulated pose tracking tasks and compare performance with learned baselines. Results from these experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of using learned factors for tracking and suggest the practical advantage over hand-crafted approaches. The project webpage is available at: https://progress.eecs.umich.edu/projects/dnbp/ .

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a robust framework for extracting theoretical insights from observational data. However, its computational demands can be substantial, primarily due to the need for numerous likelihood function evaluations. Our proposed method utilizes the power of deep learning, employing feedforward neural networks to approximate the likelihood function dynamically during the Bayesian inference process. Unlike traditional approaches, our method trains neural networks on-the-fly using the current set of live points as training data, without the need for pre-training. This flexibility enables adaptation to various theoretical models and datasets. We perform simple hyperparameter optimization using genetic algorithms to suggest initial neural network architectures for learning each likelihood function. Once sufficient accuracy is achieved, the neural network replaces the original likelihood function. The implementation integrates with nested sampling algorithms and has been thoroughly evaluated using both simple cosmological dark energy models and diverse observational datasets. Additionally, we explore the potential of genetic algorithms for generating initial live points within nested sampling inference, opening up new avenues for enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of Bayesian inference methods.

We provide the first proof of learning rate transfer with width in a linear multi-layer perceptron (MLP) parametrized with muP, a neural network parameterization designed to ``maximize'' feature learning in the infinite-width limit. We show that under mu P, the optimal learning rate converges to a non-zero constant as width goes to infinity, providing a theoretical explanation to learning rate transfer. In contrast, we show that this property fails to hold under alternative parametrizations such as Standard Parametrization (SP) and Neural Tangent Parametrization (NTP). We provide intuitive proofs and support the theoretical findings with extensive empirical results.

With the increasing computational costs associated with deep learning, automated hyperparameter optimization methods, strongly relying on black-box Bayesian optimization (BO), face limitations. Freeze-thaw BO offers a promising grey-box alternative, strategically allocating scarce resources incrementally to different configurations. However, the frequent surrogate model updates inherent to this approach pose challenges for existing methods, requiring retraining or fine-tuning their neural network surrogates online, introducing overhead, instability, and hyper-hyperparameters. In this work, we propose FT-PFN, a novel surrogate for Freeze-thaw style BO. FT-PFN is a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that leverages the transformers' in-context learning ability to efficiently and reliably do Bayesian learning curve extrapolation in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis across three benchmark suites shows that the predictions made by FT-PFN are more accurate and 10-100 times faster than those of the deep Gaussian process and deep ensemble surrogates used in previous work. Furthermore, we show that, when combined with our novel acquisition mechanism (MFPI-random), the resulting in-context freeze-thaw BO method (ifBO), yields new state-of-the-art performance in the same three families of deep learning HPO benchmarks considered in prior work.

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be ena BHbled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirical-risk-based method for incorporating the labeling mechanism. Additionally, we investigate under which assumptions learning is possible when the labeling mechanism is not fully understood and propose a practical method to enable this. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical results and shows that taking into account the possibility of a selection bias, even when the labeling mechanism is unknown, improves the trained classifiers.

This research utilized three types of artificial neural network (ANN) methodologies, namely Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) with varied training, transfer, divide, and learning functions; Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN); and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), to forecast the severity of stem rust. It considered parameters such as mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, mean rainfall, mean average temperature, mean relative humidity, and different wheat varieties. The statistical analysis revealed that GRNN demonstrated effective predictive capability and required less training time compared to the other models. Additionally, the results indicated that total seasonal rainfall positively influenced the development of wheat stem rust. Keywords: Wheat stem rust, Back propagation neural network, Radial Basis Function Neural Network, General Regression Neural Network.

Hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models can lead to order-of-magnitude performance gains for the same amount of compute. Despite this, systematic tuning is uncommon, particularly for large models, which are expensive to evaluate and tend to have many hyperparameters, necessitating difficult judgment calls about tradeoffs, budgets, and search bounds. To address these issues and propose a practical method for robustly tuning large models, we present Cost-Aware Pareto Region Bayesian Search (CARBS), a Bayesian optimization algorithm that performs local search around the performance-cost Pareto frontier. CARBS does well even in unbounded search spaces with many hyperparameters, learns scaling relationships so that it can tune models even as they are scaled up, and automates much of the "black magic" of tuning. Among our results, we effectively solve the entire ProcGen benchmark just by tuning a simple baseline (PPO, as provided in the original ProcGen paper). We also reproduce the model size vs. training tokens scaling result from the Chinchilla project (Hoffmann et al. 2022), while simultaneously discovering scaling laws for every other hyperparameter, via an easy automated process that uses significantly less compute and is applicable to any deep learning problem (not just language models).

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

Model overconfidence and poor calibration are common in machine learning and difficult to account for when applying standard empirical risk minimization. In this work, we propose a novel method to alleviate these problems that we call odd-k-out learning (OKO), which minimizes the cross-entropy error for sets rather than for single examples. This naturally allows the model to capture correlations across data examples and achieves both better accuracy and calibration, especially in limited training data and class-imbalanced regimes. Perhaps surprisingly, OKO often yields better calibration even when training with hard labels and dropping any additional calibration parameter tuning, such as temperature scaling. We demonstrate this in extensive experimental analyses and provide a mathematical theory to interpret our findings. We emphasize that OKO is a general framework that can be easily adapted to many settings and a trained model can be applied to single examples at inference time, without significant run-time overhead or architecture changes.

We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no physics-based (re)analysis inputs or feedbacks. GraphDOP learns the correlations between observed quantities - such as brightness temperatures from polar orbiters and geostationary satellites - and geophysical quantities of interest (that are measured by conventional observations), to form a coherent latent representation of Earth System state dynamics and physical processes, and is capable of producing skilful predictions of relevant weather parameters up to five days into the future.

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function piproptoe^{-U} is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.

Neural network training can be accelerated when a learnable update rule is used in lieu of classic adaptive optimizers (e.g. Adam). However, learnable update rules can be costly and unstable to train and use. A simpler recently proposed approach to accelerate training is to use Adam for most of the optimization steps and periodically, only every few steps, nowcast (predict future) parameters. We improve this approach by Neuron interaction and Nowcasting (NiNo) networks. NiNo leverages neuron connectivity and graph neural networks to more accurately nowcast parameters by learning in a supervised way from a set of training trajectories over multiple tasks. We show that in some networks, such as Transformers, neuron connectivity is non-trivial. By accurately modeling neuron connectivity, we allow NiNo to accelerate Adam training by up to 50\% in vision and language tasks.

We introduce Adam, an algorithm for first-order gradient-based optimization of stochastic objective functions, based on adaptive estimates of lower-order moments. The method is straightforward to implement, is computationally efficient, has little memory requirements, is invariant to diagonal rescaling of the gradients, and is well suited for problems that are large in terms of data and/or parameters. The method is also appropriate for non-stationary objectives and problems with very noisy and/or sparse gradients. The hyper-parameters have intuitive interpretations and typically require little tuning. Some connections to related algorithms, on which Adam was inspired, are discussed. We also analyze the theoretical convergence properties of the algorithm and provide a regret bound on the convergence rate that is comparable to the best known results under the online convex optimization framework. Empirical results demonstrate that Adam works well in practice and compares favorably to other stochastic optimization methods. Finally, we discuss AdaMax, a variant of Adam based on the infinity norm.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

The recent success of machine learning models, especially large-scale classifiers and language models, relies heavily on training with massive data. These data are often collected from online sources. This raises serious concerns about the protection of user data, as individuals may not have given consent for their data to be used in training. To address this concern, recent studies introduce the concept of unlearnable examples, i.e., data instances that appear natural but are intentionally altered to prevent models from effectively learning from them. While existing methods demonstrate empirical effectiveness, they typically rely on heuristic trials and lack formal guarantees. Besides, when unlearnable examples are mixed with clean data, as is often the case in practice, their unlearnability disappears. In this work, we propose a novel approach to constructing unlearnable examples by systematically maximising the Bayes error, a measurement of irreducible classification error. We develop an optimisation-based approach and provide an efficient solution using projected gradient ascent. Our method provably increases the Bayes error and remains effective when the unlearning examples are mixed with clean samples. Experimental results across multiple datasets and model architectures are consistent with our theoretical analysis and show that our approach can restrict data learnability, effectively in practice.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

Empirical scaling laws prescribe how to allocate parameters, data, and compute, while maximal-update parameterization (muP) enables learning-rate transfer across widths by equalizing early-time update magnitudes. However, in modern scale-invariant architectures, training quickly enters an optimizer-governed steady state where normalization layers create backward scale sensitivity and the effective learning rate becomes width dependent, degrading muP transfer. We address this by introducing a weight-decay scaling rule for AdamW that preserves sublayer gain across widths. Empirically, the singular-value spectrum of each matrix parameter scales in norm as eta/lambda with an approximately invariant shape; under width scaling d, we observe that the top singular value scales approximately as eta/lambdacdot d^{0.75}. Combining this observation with the muP learning-rate rule eta_2propto d^{-1} for matrix-like parameters implies an empirical weight-decay scaling rule lambda_2propto d that approximately keeps sublayer gains width invariant. Together with vector-like parameters trained at eta_1=Theta_d(1) and lambda_1=0, this yields zero-shot transfer of both learning rate and weight decay from proxy to target widths, removing per-width sweeps. We validate the rule on LLaMA-style Transformers and in a minimal synthetic setting, and we provide a simple diagnostic, matching top singular values, to check sublayer-gain invariance. Our results extend muP beyond the near-init regime by explicitly controlling steady-state scales set by the optimizer, offering a practical recipe for width-robust hyperparameter transfer under AdamW.

Recently, efficient fine-tuning of large-scale pre-trained models has attracted increasing research interests, where linear probing (LP) as a fundamental module is involved in exploiting the final representations for task-dependent classification. However, most of the existing methods focus on how to effectively introduce a few of learnable parameters, and little work pays attention to the commonly used LP module. In this paper, we propose a novel Moment Probing (MP) method to further explore the potential of LP. Distinguished from LP which builds a linear classification head based on the mean of final features (e.g., word tokens for ViT) or classification tokens, our MP performs a linear classifier on feature distribution, which provides the stronger representation ability by exploiting richer statistical information inherent in features. Specifically, we represent feature distribution by its characteristic function, which is efficiently approximated by using first- and second-order moments of features. Furthermore, we propose a multi-head convolutional cross-covariance (MHC^3) to compute second-order moments in an efficient and effective manner. By considering that MP could affect feature learning, we introduce a partially shared module to learn two recalibrating parameters (PSRP) for backbones based on MP, namely MP_{+}. Extensive experiments on ten benchmarks using various models show that our MP significantly outperforms LP and is competitive with counterparts at less training cost, while our MP_{+} achieves state-of-the-art performance.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) uses unlabeled data to improve the performance of machine learning models when labeled data is scarce. However, its real-world applications often face the label distribution mismatch problem, in which the unlabeled dataset includes instances whose ground-truth labels are absent from the labeled training dataset. Recent studies, referred to as safe SSL, have addressed this issue by using both classification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. However, the existing methods may suffer from overconfidence in deep neural networks, leading to increased SSL errors because of high confidence in incorrect pseudo-labels or OOD detection. To address this, we propose a novel method, CaliMatch, which calibrates both the classifier and the OOD detector to foster safe SSL. CaliMatch presents adaptive label smoothing and temperature scaling, which eliminates the need to manually tune the smoothing degree for effective calibration. We give a theoretical justification for why improving the calibration of both the classifier and the OOD detector is crucial in safe SSL. Extensive evaluations on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, SVHN, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet demonstrate that CaliMatch outperforms the existing methods in safe SSL tasks.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

Symbolic equations are at the core of scientific discovery. The task of discovering the underlying equation from a set of input-output pairs is called symbolic regression. Traditionally, symbolic regression methods use hand-designed strategies that do not improve with experience. In this paper, we introduce the first symbolic regression method that leverages large scale pre-training. We procedurally generate an unbounded set of equations, and simultaneously pre-train a Transformer to predict the symbolic equation from a corresponding set of input-output-pairs. At test time, we query the model on a new set of points and use its output to guide the search for the equation. We show empirically that this approach can re-discover a set of well-known physical equations, and that it improves over time with more data and compute.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

We show that learning-rate schedules for large model training behave surprisingly similar to a performance bound from non-smooth convex optimization theory. We provide a bound for the constant schedule with linear cooldown; in particular, the practical benefit of cooldown is reflected in the bound due to the absence of logarithmic terms. Further, we show that this surprisingly close match between optimization theory and practice can be exploited for learning-rate tuning: we achieve noticeable improvements for training 124M and 210M Llama-type models by (i) extending the schedule for continued training with optimal learning-rate, and (ii) transferring the optimal learning-rate across schedules.

We consider the problem of how a teacher algorithm can enable an unknown Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) student to become good at a skill over a wide range of diverse environments. To do so, we study how a teacher algorithm can learn to generate a learning curriculum, whereby it sequentially samples parameters controlling a stochastic procedural generation of environments. Because it does not initially know the capacities of its student, a key challenge for the teacher is to discover which environments are easy, difficult or unlearnable, and in what order to propose them to maximize the efficiency of learning over the learnable ones. To achieve this, this problem is transformed into a surrogate continuous bandit problem where the teacher samples environments in order to maximize absolute learning progress of its student. We present a new algorithm modeling absolute learning progress with Gaussian mixture models (ALP-GMM). We also adapt existing algorithms and provide a complete study in the context of DRL. Using parameterized variants of the BipedalWalker environment, we study their efficiency to personalize a learning curriculum for different learners (embodiments), their robustness to the ratio of learnable/unlearnable environments, and their scalability to non-linear and high-dimensional parameter spaces. Videos and code are available at https://github.com/flowersteam/teachDeepRL.

Inference-time computation is a powerful paradigm to enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs), with Best-of-N sampling being a widely used technique. However, this method is computationally expensive, requiring both (1) an external reward model and (2) the generation of multiple samples. In this work, we introduce a new generative self-evaluation scheme designed to adaptively reduce the number of generated samples while maintaining or even improving performance. We use a generative reward model formulation, allowing the LLM to predict mid-generation the probability that restarting the generation will yield a better response. These predictions are obtained without an external reward model and can be used to decide whether or not to generate more samples, prune unpromising samples early on, or to pick the best sample. This capability is very inexpensive as it involves generating a single predefined token. Trained using a dataset constructed with real unfiltered LMSYS user prompts, Llama 3.1 8B's win rate against GPT-4 on AlpacaEval increases from 21% to 34% with 16 samples and math performance on GSM8K improves from 84% to 91%. By sampling only when the LLM determines that it is beneficial to do so and adaptively adjusting temperature annealing, we demonstrate that 74% of the improvement from using 16 samples can be achieved with only 1.2 samples on average. We further demonstrate that 50-75% of samples can be pruned early in generation with minimal degradation in performance. Overall, our methods enable more efficient and scalable compute utilization during inference for LLMs.

Accurate prediction of atomistic, thermodynamic, and kinetic properties from molecular structures underpins materials innovation. Existing computational and experimental approaches lack the scalability required to efficiently navigate chemical space. Scientific foundation models trained on large unlabeled datasets offer a path toward exploring chemical space across diverse application domains. Here we develop MIST, a family of molecular foundation models with up to an order of magnitude more parameters and data than prior works. Trained using a novel tokenization scheme that comprehensively captures nuclear, electronic, and geometric information, MIST learns from a diverse range of molecules. MIST models have been fine-tuned to predict more than 400 structure -- property relationships and match or exceed state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks spanning physiology, electrochemistry, and quantum chemistry. We demonstrate the ability of these models to solve real-world problems across chemical space, including multiobjective electrolyte solvent screening, olfactory perception mapping, isotope half-life prediction, stereochemical reasoning for chiral organometallic compounds, and binary and multi-component mixture property prediction. Probing MIST models using mechanistic interpretability methods reveals identifiable patterns and trends not explicitly present in the training data, suggesting that the models learn generalizable scientific concepts. We formulate hyperparameter-penalized Bayesian neural scaling laws and use them to reduce the computational cost of model development by an order of magnitude. The methods and findings presented here represent a significant step toward accelerating materials discovery, design, and optimization using foundation models and provide valuable guidance for training compute-optimal scientific foundation models.

A wide body of evidence shows that human language processing difficulty is predicted by the information-theoretic measure surprisal, a word's negative log probability in context. However, it is still unclear how to best estimate these probabilities needed for predicting human processing difficulty -- while a long-standing belief held that models with lower perplexity would provide more accurate estimates of word predictability, and therefore lead to better reading time predictions, recent work has shown that for very large models, psycholinguistic predictive power decreases. One reason could be that language models might be more confident of their predictions than humans, because they have had exposure to several magnitudes more data. In this paper, we test what effect temperature-scaling of large language model (LLM) predictions has on surprisal estimates and their predictive power of reading times of English texts. Firstly, we show that calibration of large language models typically improves with model size, i.e. poorer calibration cannot account for poorer fit to reading times. Secondly, we find that temperature-scaling probabilities lead to a systematically better fit to reading times (up to 89% improvement in delta log likelihood), across several reading time corpora. Finally, we show that this improvement in fit is chiefly driven by words that are composed of multiple subword tokens.

Recent advances in foundation models have emphasized the need to align pre-trained models with specialized domains using small, curated datasets. Studies on these foundation models underscore the importance of low-data training and fine-tuning. This topic, well-known in natural language processing (NLP), has also gained increasing attention in the emerging field of scientific machine learning (SciML). To address the limitations of low-data training and fine-tuning, we draw inspiration from Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HT-SR) theory, analyzing the shape of empirical spectral densities (ESDs) and revealing an imbalance in training quality across different model layers. To mitigate this issue, we adapt a recently proposed layer-wise learning rate scheduler, TempBalance, which effectively balances training quality across layers and enhances low-data training and fine-tuning for both NLP and SciML tasks. Notably, TempBalance demonstrates increasing performance gains as the amount of available tuning data decreases. Comparative analyses further highlight the effectiveness of TempBalance and its adaptability as an "add-on" method for improving model performance.

Our world is full of asymmetries. Gravity and wind can make reaching a place easier than coming back. Social artifacts such as genealogy charts and citation graphs are inherently directed. In reinforcement learning and control, optimal goal-reaching strategies are rarely reversible (symmetrical). Distance functions supported on these asymmetrical structures are called quasimetrics. Despite their common appearance, little research has been done on the learning of quasimetrics. Our theoretical analysis reveals that a common class of learning algorithms, including unconstrained multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), provably fails to learn a quasimetric consistent with training data. In contrast, our proposed Poisson Quasimetric Embedding (PQE) is the first quasimetric learning formulation that both is learnable with gradient-based optimization and enjoys strong performance guarantees. Experiments on random graphs, social graphs, and offline Q-learning demonstrate its effectiveness over many common baselines.

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 100 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 90% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources. Without fine-tuning, ACE can stably generalize to a previously unseen historical sea surface temperature dataset.

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

Continual learning with an increasing number of classes is a challenging task. The difficulty rises when each example is presented exactly once, which requires the model to learn online. Recent methods with classic parameter optimization procedures have been shown to struggle in such setups or have limitations like non-differentiable components or memory buffers. For this reason, we present the fully differentiable ensemble method that allows us to efficiently train an ensemble of neural networks in the end-to-end regime. The proposed technique achieves SOTA results without a memory buffer and clearly outperforms the reference methods. The conducted experiments have also shown a significant increase in the performance for small ensembles, which demonstrates the capability of obtaining relatively high classification accuracy with a reduced number of classifiers.

Learning to Optimize (L2O), a technique that utilizes machine learning to learn an optimization algorithm automatically from data, has gained arising attention in recent years. A generic L2O approach parameterizes the iterative update rule and learns the update direction as a black-box network. While the generic approach is widely applicable, the learned model can overfit and may not generalize well to out-of-distribution test sets. In this paper, we derive the basic mathematical conditions that successful update rules commonly satisfy. Consequently, we propose a novel L2O model with a mathematics-inspired structure that is broadly applicable and generalized well to out-of-distribution problems. Numerical simulations validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the superior empirical performance of the proposed L2O model.

The rapid discovery of materials is constrained by the lack of large, machine-readable datasets that couple performance metrics with structural context. Existing databases are either small, manually curated, or biased toward first principles results, leaving experimental literature underexploited. We present an agentic, large language model (LLM)-driven workflow that autonomously extracts thermoelectric and structural-properties from about 10,000 full-text scientific articles. The pipeline integrates dynamic token allocation, zeroshot multi-agent extraction, and conditional table parsing to balance accuracy against computational cost. Benchmarking on 50 curated papers shows that GPT-4.1 achieves the highest accuracy (F1 = 0.91 for thermoelectric properties and 0.82 for structural fields), while GPT-4.1 Mini delivers nearly comparable performance (F1 = 0.89 and 0.81) at a fraction of the cost, enabling practical large scale deployment. Applying this workflow, we curated 27,822 temperature resolved property records with normalized units, spanning figure of merit (ZT), Seebeck coefficient, conductivity, resistivity, power factor, and thermal conductivity, together with structural attributes such as crystal class, space group, and doping strategy. Dataset analysis reproduces known thermoelectric trends, such as the superior performance of alloys over oxides and the advantage of p-type doping, while also surfacing broader structure-property correlations. To facilitate community access, we release an interactive web explorer with semantic filters, numeric queries, and CSV export. This study delivers the largest LLM-curated thermoelectric dataset to date, provides a reproducible and cost-profiled extraction pipeline, and establishes a foundation for scalable, data-driven materials discovery beyond thermoelectrics.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

In this work, we present a novel physics-based data-driven framework for reduced-order modeling of laser ignition in a model rocket combustor based on parameterized neural ordinary differential equations (PNODE). Deep neural networks are embedded as functions of high-dimensional parameters of laser ignition to predict various terms in a 0D flow model including the heat source function, pre-exponential factors, and activation energy. Using the governing equations of a 0D flow model, our PNODE needs only a limited number of training samples and predicts trajectories of various quantities such as temperature, pressure, and mass fractions of species while satisfying physical constraints. We validate our physics-based PNODE on solution snapshots of high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of laser-induced ignition in a prototype rocket combustor. We compare the performance of our physics-based PNODE with that of kernel ridge regression and fully connected neural networks. Our results show that our physics-based PNODE provides solutions with lower mean absolute errors of average temperature over time, thus improving the prediction of successful laser ignition with high-dimensional parameters.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

Post-training has emerged as a crucial paradigm for adapting large-scale pre-trained models to various tasks, whose effects are fully reflected by delta parameters (i.e., the disparity between post-trained and pre-trained parameters). While numerous studies have explored delta parameter properties via operations like pruning, quantization, low-rank approximation, and extrapolation, a unified framework for systematically examining these characteristics has been lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective based on Riemann sum approximation of the loss function to elucidate delta parameter editing operations. Our analysis categorizes existing methods into three classes based on their post-editing performance: competitive, decreased, and improved, explaining how they are expressed by the Riemann sum approximation term and how they alter the model performance. Extensive experiments on both visual and language models, including ViT, LLaMA 3, Qwen 2, and Mistral, corroborate our theoretical findings. Furthermore, we introduce extensions to existing techniques like DARE and BitDelta, highlighting their limitations in leveraging the properties of delta parameters and reorganizing them into general expressions to enhance the applicability and effectiveness of delta parameter editing in post-trained models.

Selecting hyperparameters in deep learning greatly impacts its effectiveness but requires manual effort and expertise. Recent works show that Bayesian model selection with Laplace approximations can allow to optimize such hyperparameters just like standard neural network parameters using gradients and on the training data. However, estimating a single hyperparameter gradient requires a pass through the entire dataset, limiting the scalability of such algorithms. In this work, we overcome this issue by introducing lower bounds to the linearized Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood. In contrast to previous estimators, these bounds are amenable to stochastic-gradient-based optimization and allow to trade off estimation accuracy against computational complexity. We derive them using the function-space form of the linearized Laplace, which can be estimated using the neural tangent kernel. Experimentally, we show that the estimators can significantly accelerate gradient-based hyperparameter optimization.

Long-context reasoning requires accurately identifying relevant information in extensive, noisy input contexts. Previous research shows that using test-time learning to encode context directly into model parameters can effectively enable reasoning over noisy information. However, meta-learning methods for enabling test-time learning are prohibitively memory-intensive, preventing their application to long context settings. In this work, we propose PERK (Parameter Efficient Reasoning over Knowledge), a scalable approach for learning to encode long input contexts using gradient updates to a lightweight model adapter at test time. Specifically, PERK employs two nested optimization loops in a meta-training phase. The inner loop rapidly encodes contexts into a low-rank adapter (LoRA) that serves as a parameter-efficient memory module for the base model. Concurrently, the outer loop learns to use the updated adapter to accurately recall and reason over relevant information from the encoded long context. Our evaluations on several long-context reasoning tasks show that PERK significantly outperforms the standard prompt-based long-context baseline, achieving average absolute performance gains of up to 90% for smaller models (GPT-2) and up to 27% for our largest evaluated model, Qwen-2.5-0.5B. In general, PERK is more robust to reasoning complexity, length extrapolation, and the locations of relevant information in contexts. Finally, we show that while PERK is memory-intensive during training, it scales more efficiently at inference time than prompt-based long-context inference.

Neural networks trained on distilled data often produce over-confident output and require correction by calibration methods. Existing calibration methods such as temperature scaling and mixup work well for networks trained on original large-scale data. However, we find that these methods fail to calibrate networks trained on data distilled from large source datasets. In this paper, we show that distilled data lead to networks that are not calibratable due to (i) a more concentrated distribution of the maximum logits and (ii) the loss of information that is semantically meaningful but unrelated to classification tasks. To address this problem, we propose Masked Temperature Scaling (MTS) and Masked Distillation Training (MDT) which mitigate the limitations of distilled data and achieve better calibration results while maintaining the efficiency of dataset distillation.

Approximating nonlinear differential equations using a neural network provides a robust and efficient tool for various scientific computing tasks, including real-time predictions, inverse problems, optimal controls, and surrogate modeling. Previous works have focused on embedding dynamical systems into networks through two approaches: learning a single solution operator (i.e., the mapping from input parametrized functions to solutions) or learning the governing system of equations (i.e., the constitutive model relative to the state variables). Both of these approaches yield different representations for the same underlying data or function. Additionally, observing that families of differential equations often share key characteristics, we seek one network representation across a wide range of equations. Our method, called Predicting Operators and Symbolic Expressions (PROSE), learns maps from multimodal inputs to multimodal outputs, capable of generating both numerical predictions and mathematical equations. By using a transformer structure and a feature fusion approach, our network can simultaneously embed sets of solution operators for various parametric differential equations using a single trained network. Detailed experiments demonstrate that the network benefits from its multimodal nature, resulting in improved prediction accuracy and better generalization. The network is shown to be able to handle noise in the data and errors in the symbolic representation, including noisy numerical values, model misspecification, and erroneous addition or deletion of terms. PROSE provides a new neural network framework for differential equations which allows for more flexibility and generality in learning operators and governing equations from data.

Mathematical equations have been unreasonably effective in describing complex natural phenomena across various scientific disciplines. However, discovering such insightful equations from data presents significant challenges due to the necessity of navigating extremely high-dimensional combinatorial and nonlinear hypothesis spaces. Traditional methods of equation discovery largely focus on extracting equations from data alone, often neglecting the rich domain-specific prior knowledge that scientists typically depend on. To bridge this gap, we introduce LLM-SR, a novel approach that leverages the extensive scientific knowledge and robust code generation capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover scientific equations from data in an efficient manner. Specifically, LLM-SR treats equations as programs with mathematical operators and combines LLMs' scientific priors with evolutionary search over equation programs. The LLM iteratively proposes new equation skeletons, drawing from its physical understanding, which are then optimized against data to estimate skeleton parameters. We demonstrate LLM-SR's effectiveness across three diverse scientific domains, where it discovers physically accurate equations that provide significantly better fits to in-domain and out-of-domain data compared to the well-established equation discovery baselines

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

Pruning generates sparse networks by setting parameters to zero. In this work we improve one-shot pruning methods, applied before training, without adding any additional storage costs while preserving the sparse gradient computations. The main difference to pruning is that we do not sparsify the network's weights but learn just a few key parameters and keep the other ones fixed at their random initialized value. This mechanism is called freezing the parameters. Those frozen weights can be stored efficiently with a single 32bit random seed number. The parameters to be frozen are determined one-shot by a single for- and backward pass applied before training starts. We call the introduced method FreezeNet. In our experiments we show that FreezeNets achieve good results, especially for extreme freezing rates. Freezing weights preserves the gradient flow throughout the network and consequently, FreezeNets train better and have an increased capacity compared to their pruned counterparts. On the classification tasks MNIST and CIFAR-10/100 we outperform SNIP, in this setting the best reported one-shot pruning method, applied before training. On MNIST, FreezeNet achieves 99.2% performance of the baseline LeNet-5-Caffe architecture, while compressing the number of trained and stored parameters by a factor of x 157.

Large pre-trained models achieve remarkable performance in vision tasks but are impractical for fine-tuning due to high computational and storage costs. Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods mitigate this issue by updating only a subset of parameters; however, most existing approaches are task-agnostic, failing to fully exploit task-specific adaptations, which leads to suboptimal efficiency and performance. To address this limitation, we propose Task-Relevant Parameter and Token Selection (TR-PTS), a task-driven framework that enhances both computational efficiency and accuracy. Specifically, we introduce Task-Relevant Parameter Selection, which utilizes the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to identify and fine-tune only the most informative parameters in a layer-wise manner, while keeping the remaining parameters frozen. Simultaneously, Task-Relevant Token Selection dynamically preserves the most informative tokens and merges redundant ones, reducing computational overhead. By jointly optimizing parameters and tokens, TR-PTS enables the model to concentrate on task-discriminative information. We evaluate TR-PTS on benchmark, including FGVC and VTAB-1k, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing full fine-tuning by 3.40% and 10.35%, respectively. The code are available at https://github.com/synbol/TR-PTS.

Various tasks in data science are modeled utilizing the variational regularization approach, where manually selecting regularization parameters presents a challenge. The difficulty gets exacerbated when employing regularizers involving a large number of hyperparameters. To overcome this challenge, bilevel learning can be employed to learn such parameters from data. However, neither exact function values nor exact gradients with respect to the hyperparameters are attainable, necessitating methods that only rely on inexact evaluation of such quantities. State-of-the-art inexact gradient-based methods a priori select a sequence of the required accuracies and cannot identify an appropriate step size since the Lipschitz constant of the hypergradient is unknown. In this work, we propose an algorithm with backtracking line search that only relies on inexact function evaluations and hypergradients and show convergence to a stationary point. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm determines the required accuracy dynamically rather than manually selected before running it. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency and feasibility of our approach for hyperparameter estimation on a range of relevant problems in imaging and data science such as total variation and field of experts denoising and multinomial logistic regression. Particularly, the results show that the algorithm is robust to its own hyperparameters such as the initial accuracies and step size.

Leveraging new data sources is a key step in accelerating the pace of materials design and discovery. To complement the strides in synthesis planning driven by historical, experimental, and computed data, we present an automated method for connecting scientific literature to synthesis insights. Starting from natural language text, we apply word embeddings from language models, which are fed into a named entity recognition model, upon which a conditional variational autoencoder is trained to generate syntheses for arbitrary materials. We show the potential of this technique by predicting precursors for two perovskite materials, using only training data published over a decade prior to their first reported syntheses. We demonstrate that the model learns representations of materials corresponding to synthesis-related properties, and that the model's behavior complements existing thermodynamic knowledge. Finally, we apply the model to perform synthesizability screening for proposed novel perovskite compounds.

Second-order training methods have better convergence properties than gradient descent but are rarely used in practice for large-scale training due to their computational overhead. This can be viewed as a hardware limitation (imposed by digital computers). Here we show that natural gradient descent (NGD), a second-order method, can have a similar computational complexity per iteration to a first-order method, when employing appropriate hardware. We present a new hybrid digital-analog algorithm for training neural networks that is equivalent to NGD in a certain parameter regime but avoids prohibitively costly linear system solves. Our algorithm exploits the thermodynamic properties of an analog system at equilibrium, and hence requires an analog thermodynamic computer. The training occurs in a hybrid digital-analog loop, where the gradient and Fisher information matrix (or any other positive semi-definite curvature matrix) are calculated at given time intervals while the analog dynamics take place. We numerically demonstrate the superiority of this approach over state-of-the-art digital first- and second-order training methods on classification tasks and language model fine-tuning tasks.

We introduce a differentiable estimator of range-partition entropy, a recent concept from computational geometry that enables algorithms to adapt to the "sortedness" of their input. While range-partition entropy provides strong guarantees in algorithm design, it has not yet been made accessible to deep learning. In this work, we (i) propose the first differentiable approximation of range-partition entropy, enabling its use as a trainable loss or regularizer; (ii) design EntropyNet, a neural module that restructures data into low-entropy forms to accelerate downstream instance-optimal algorithms; and (iii) extend this principle beyond geometry by applying entropy regularization directly to Transformer attention. Across tasks, we demonstrate that differentiable entropy improves efficiency without degrading correctness: in geometry, our method achieves up to 4.1times runtime speedups with negligible error (<0.2%); in deep learning, it induces structured attention patterns that yield 6% higher accuracy at 80% sparsity compared to L1 baselines. Our theoretical analysis provides approximation bounds for the estimator, and extensive ablations validate design choices. These results suggest that entropy-bounded computation is not only theoretically elegant but also a practical mechanism for adaptive learning, efficiency, and structured representation.

Performance of machine learning algorithms depends critically on identifying a good set of hyperparameters. While recent approaches use Bayesian optimization to adaptively select configurations, we focus on speeding up random search through adaptive resource allocation and early-stopping. We formulate hyperparameter optimization as a pure-exploration non-stochastic infinite-armed bandit problem where a predefined resource like iterations, data samples, or features is allocated to randomly sampled configurations. We introduce a novel algorithm, Hyperband, for this framework and analyze its theoretical properties, providing several desirable guarantees. Furthermore, we compare Hyperband with popular Bayesian optimization methods on a suite of hyperparameter optimization problems. We observe that Hyperband can provide over an order-of-magnitude speedup over our competitor set on a variety of deep-learning and kernel-based learning problems.

We investigate the expressive power of depth-2 bandlimited random neural networks. A random net is a neural network where the hidden layer parameters are frozen with random assignment, and only the output layer parameters are trained by loss minimization. Using random weights for a hidden layer is an effective method to avoid non-convex optimization in standard gradient descent learning. It has also been adopted in recent deep learning theories. Despite the well-known fact that a neural network is a universal approximator, in this study, we mathematically show that when hidden parameters are distributed in a bounded domain, the network may not achieve zero approximation error. In particular, we derive a new nontrivial approximation error lower bound. The proof utilizes the technique of ridgelet analysis, a harmonic analysis method designed for neural networks. This method is inspired by fundamental principles in classical signal processing, specifically the idea that signals with limited bandwidth may not always be able to perfectly recreate the original signal. We corroborate our theoretical results with various simulation studies, and generally, two main take-home messages are offered: (i) Not any distribution for selecting random weights is feasible to build a universal approximator; (ii) A suitable assignment of random weights exists but to some degree is associated with the complexity of the target function.

Current deep learning models for dynamics forecasting struggle with generalization. They can only forecast in a specific domain and fail when applied to systems with different parameters, external forces, or boundary conditions. We propose a model-based meta-learning method called DyAd which can generalize across heterogeneous domains by partitioning them into different tasks. DyAd has two parts: an encoder which infers the time-invariant hidden features of the task with weak supervision, and a forecaster which learns the shared dynamics of the entire domain. The encoder adapts and controls the forecaster during inference using adaptive instance normalization and adaptive padding. Theoretically, we prove that the generalization error of such procedure is related to the task relatedness in the source domain, as well as the domain differences between source and target. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on both turbulent flow and real-world ocean data forecasting tasks.

Conventional supervised learning typically assumes that the learning task can be solved by learning a single function since the data is sampled from a fixed distribution. However, this assumption is invalid in open-ended environments where no task-level data partitioning is available. In this paper, we present a novel supervised learning framework of learning from open-ended data, which is modeled as data implicitly sampled from multiple domains with the data in each domain obeying a domain-specific target function. Since different domains may possess distinct target functions, open-ended data inherently requires multiple functions to capture all its input-output relations, rendering training a single global model problematic. To address this issue, we devise an Open-ended Supervised Learning (OSL) framework, of which the key component is a subjective function that allocates the data among multiple candidate models to resolve the "conflict" between the data from different domains, exhibiting a natural hierarchy. We theoretically analyze the learnability and the generalization error of OSL, and empirically validate its efficacy in both open-ended regression and classification tasks.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Dynamic model pruning is a recent direction that allows for the inference of a different sub-network for each input sample during deployment. However, current dynamic methods rely on learning a continuous channel gating through regularization by inducing sparsity loss. This formulation introduces complexity in balancing different losses (e.g task loss, regularization loss). In addition, regularization based methods lack transparent tradeoff hyperparameter selection to realize a computational budget. Our contribution is two-fold: 1) decoupled task and pruning losses. 2) Simple hyperparameter selection that enables FLOPs reduction estimation before training. Inspired by the Hebbian theory in Neuroscience: "neurons that fire together wire together", we propose to predict a mask to process k filters in a layer based on the activation of its previous layer. We pose the problem as a self-supervised binary classification problem. Each mask predictor module is trained to predict if the log-likelihood for each filter in the current layer belongs to the top-k activated filters. The value k is dynamically estimated for each input based on a novel criterion using the mass of heatmaps. We show experiments on several neural architectures, such as VGG, ResNet and MobileNet on CIFAR and ImageNet datasets. On CIFAR, we reach similar accuracy to SOTA methods with 15% and 24% higher FLOPs reduction. Similarly in ImageNet, we achieve lower drop in accuracy with up to 13% improvement in FLOPs reduction.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

The intrinsic difficulty in adapting deep learning models to non-stationary environments limits the applicability of neural networks to real-world tasks. This issue is critical in practical supervised learning settings, such as the ones in which a pre-trained model computes projections toward a latent space where different task predictors are sequentially learned over time. As a matter of fact, incrementally fine-tuning the whole model to better adapt to new tasks usually results in catastrophic forgetting, with decreasing performance over the past experiences and losing valuable knowledge from the pre-training stage. In this paper, we propose a novel strategy to make the fine-tuning procedure more effective, by avoiding to update the pre-trained part of the network and learning not only the usual classification head, but also a set of newly-introduced learnable parameters that are responsible for transforming the input data. This process allows the network to effectively leverage the pre-training knowledge and find a good trade-off between plasticity and stability with modest computational efforts, thus especially suitable for on-the-edge settings. Our experiments on four image classification problems in a continual learning setting confirm the quality of the proposed approach when compared to several fine-tuning procedures and to popular continual learning methods.

Coordinate-based neural representations have shown significant promise as an alternative to discrete, array-based representations for complex low dimensional signals. However, optimizing a coordinate-based network from randomly initialized weights for each new signal is inefficient. We propose applying standard meta-learning algorithms to learn the initial weight parameters for these fully-connected networks based on the underlying class of signals being represented (e.g., images of faces or 3D models of chairs). Despite requiring only a minor change in implementation, using these learned initial weights enables faster convergence during optimization and can serve as a strong prior over the signal class being modeled, resulting in better generalization when only partial observations of a given signal are available. We explore these benefits across a variety of tasks, including representing 2D images, reconstructing CT scans, and recovering 3D shapes and scenes from 2D image observations.

The Maximal Update Parametrization (muP) aims to make the optimal hyperparameters (HPs) of a model independent of its size, allowing them to be swept using a cheap proxy model rather than the full-size target model. We present a new scheme, u-muP, which improves upon muP by combining it with Unit Scaling, a method for designing models that makes them easy to train in low-precision. The two techniques have a natural affinity: muP ensures that the scale of activations is independent of model size, and Unit Scaling ensures that activations, weights and gradients begin training with a scale of one. This synthesis opens the door to a simpler scheme, whose default values are near-optimal. This in turn facilitates a more efficient sweeping strategy, with u-muP models reaching a lower loss than comparable muP models and working out-of-the-box in FP8.

In the language domain, as in other domains, neural explainability takes an ever more important role, with feature attribution methods on the forefront. Many such methods require considerable computational resources and expert knowledge about implementation details and parameter choices. To facilitate research, we present Thermostat which consists of a large collection of model explanations and accompanying analysis tools. Thermostat allows easy access to over 200k explanations for the decisions of prominent state-of-the-art models spanning across different NLP tasks, generated with multiple explainers. The dataset took over 10k GPU hours (> one year) to compile; compute time that the community now saves. The accompanying software tools allow to analyse explanations instance-wise but also accumulatively on corpus level. Users can investigate and compare models, datasets and explainers without the need to orchestrate implementation details. Thermostat is fully open source, democratizes explainability research in the language domain, circumvents redundant computations and increases comparability and replicability.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

Parameter regularization or allocation methods are effective in overcoming catastrophic forgetting in lifelong learning. However, they solve all tasks in a sequence uniformly and ignore the differences in the learning difficulty of different tasks. So parameter regularization methods face significant forgetting when learning a new task very different from learned tasks, and parameter allocation methods face unnecessary parameter overhead when learning simple tasks. In this paper, we propose the Parameter Allocation & Regularization (PAR), which adaptively select an appropriate strategy for each task from parameter allocation and regularization based on its learning difficulty. A task is easy for a model that has learned tasks related to it and vice versa. We propose a divergence estimation method based on the Nearest-Prototype distance to measure the task relatedness using only features of the new task. Moreover, we propose a time-efficient relatedness-aware sampling-based architecture search strategy to reduce the parameter overhead for allocation. Experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that, compared with SOTAs, our method is scalable and significantly reduces the model's redundancy while improving the model's performance. Further qualitative analysis indicates that PAR obtains reasonable task-relatedness.

In this work, we propose a concise neural operator architecture for operator learning. Drawing an analogy with a conventional fully connected neural network, we define the neural operator as follows: the output of the i-th neuron in a nonlinear operator layer is defined by mathcal O_i(u) = sigmaleft( sum_j mathcal W_{ij} u + mathcal B_{ij}right). Here, mathcal W_{ij} denotes the bounded linear operator connecting j-th input neuron to i-th output neuron, and the bias mathcal B_{ij} takes the form of a function rather than a scalar. Given its new universal approximation property, the efficient parameterization of the bounded linear operators between two neurons (Banach spaces) plays a critical role. As a result, we introduce MgNO, utilizing multigrid structures to parameterize these linear operators between neurons. This approach offers both mathematical rigor and practical expressivity. Additionally, MgNO obviates the need for conventional lifting and projecting operators typically required in previous neural operators. Moreover, it seamlessly accommodates diverse boundary conditions. Our empirical observations reveal that MgNO exhibits superior ease of training compared to other CNN-based models, while also displaying a reduced susceptibility to overfitting when contrasted with spectral-type neural operators. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of our method with consistently state-of-the-art performance on different types of partial differential equations (PDEs).

We introduce a framework based on bilevel programming that unifies gradient-based hyperparameter optimization and meta-learning. We show that an approximate version of the bilevel problem can be solved by taking into explicit account the optimization dynamics for the inner objective. Depending on the specific setting, the outer variables take either the meaning of hyperparameters in a supervised learning problem or parameters of a meta-learner. We provide sufficient conditions under which solutions of the approximate problem converge to those of the exact problem. We instantiate our approach for meta-learning in the case of deep learning where representation layers are treated as hyperparameters shared across a set of training episodes. In experiments, we confirm our theoretical findings, present encouraging results for few-shot learning and contrast the bilevel approach against classical approaches for learning-to-learn.

Parameter generation has struggled to scale up for a long time, significantly limiting its range of applications. In this study, we introduce Recurrent diffusion for large-scale Parameter Generation, called RPG. We first divide the trained parameters into non-overlapping parts, after which a recurrent model is proposed to learn their relationships. The recurrent model's outputs, as conditions, are then fed into a diffusion model to generate the neural network parameters. Using only a single GPU, recurrent diffusion enables us to generate popular vision and language models such as ConvNeXt-L and LoRA parameters of LLaMA-7B. Meanwhile, across various architectures and tasks, the generated parameters consistently perform comparable results over trained networks. Notably, our approach also shows the potential to generate models for handling unseen tasks, which largely increases the practicality of parameter generation. Our code is available https://github.com/NUS-HPC-AI-Lab/Recurrent-Parameter-Generation{here}.

We study the problem of using low computational cost to automate the choices of learners and hyperparameters for an ad-hoc training dataset and error metric, by conducting trials of different configurations on the given training data. We investigate the joint impact of multiple factors on both trial cost and model error, and propose several design guidelines. Following them, we build a fast and lightweight library FLAML which optimizes for low computational resource in finding accurate models. FLAML integrates several simple but effective search strategies into an adaptive system. It significantly outperforms top-ranked AutoML libraries on a large open source AutoML benchmark under equal, or sometimes orders of magnitude smaller budget constraints.

Current parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods build adapters without considering the context of downstream task to learn, or the context of important knowledge to maintain. As a result, there is often a performance gap compared to full-parameter finetuning, and meanwhile the finetuned model suffers from catastrophic forgetting of the pre-trained world knowledge. In this paper, we propose CorDA, a Context-oriented Decomposition Adaptation method that builds learnable adapters from weight decomposition oriented by the context of downstream task or world knowledge. Concretely, we collect a few data samples, and perform singular value decomposition for each linear layer of a pre-trained LLM multiplied by the covariance matrix of the input activation using these samples. By doing so, the context of the representative samples is captured through deciding the factorizing orientation. Our method enables two options, the knowledge-preserved adaptation and the instruction-previewed adaptation. For the former, we use question-answering samples to obtain the covariance matrices, and use the decomposed components with the smallest r singular values to initialize a learnable adapter, with the others frozen such that the world knowledge is better preserved. For the latter, we use the instruction data from the finetuning task, such as math or coding, to orientate the decomposition and train the largest r components that capture the main characteristics of the task to learn. We conduct extensive experiments on Math, Code, and Instruction Following tasks. Our knowledge-preserved adaptation not only achieves better performance than LoRA on finetuning tasks, but also mitigates the forgetting of world knowledge. Our instruction-previewed adaptation is able to further enhance the finetuning performance, surpassing full-parameter finetuning and the state-of-the-art PEFT methods.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Machine learning models are often tuned by nesting optimization of model weights inside the optimization of hyperparameters. We give a method to collapse this nested optimization into joint stochastic optimization of weights and hyperparameters. Our process trains a neural network to output approximately optimal weights as a function of hyperparameters. We show that our technique converges to locally optimal weights and hyperparameters for sufficiently large hypernetworks. We compare this method to standard hyperparameter optimization strategies and demonstrate its effectiveness for tuning thousands of hyperparameters.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Machine learning models will often fail when deployed in an environment with a data distribution that is different than the training distribution. When multiple environments are available during training, many methods exist that learn representations which are invariant across the different distributions, with the hope that these representations will be transportable to unseen domains. In this work, we present a nonparametric strategy for learning invariant representations based on the recently-proposed Nadaraya-Watson (NW) head. The NW head makes a prediction by comparing the learned representations of the query to the elements of a support set that consists of labeled data. We demonstrate that by manipulating the support set, one can encode different causal assumptions. In particular, restricting the support set to a single environment encourages the model to learn invariant features that do not depend on the environment. We present a causally-motivated setup for our modeling and training strategy and validate on three challenging real-world domain generalization tasks in computer vision.

This paper introduces TempSamp-R1, a new reinforcement fine-tuning framework designed to improve the effectiveness of adapting multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to video temporal grounding tasks. We reveal that existing reinforcement learning methods, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), rely on on-policy sampling for policy updates. However, in tasks with large temporal search spaces, this strategy becomes both inefficient and limited in performance, as it often fails to identify temporally accurate solutions. To address this limitation, TempSamp-R1 leverages ground-truth annotations as off-policy supervision to provide temporally precise guidance, effectively compensating for the sparsity and misalignment in on-policy solutions. To further stabilize training and reduce variance in reward-based updates, TempSamp-R1 provides a non-linear soft advantage computation method that dynamically reshapes the reward feedback via an asymmetric transformation. By employing a hybrid Chain-of-Thought (CoT) training paradigm, TempSamp-R1 optimizes a single unified model to support both CoT and non-CoT inference modes, enabling efficient handling of queries with varying reasoning complexity. Experimental results demonstrate that TempSamp-R1 outperforms GRPO-based baselines, establishing new state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets: Charades-STA ([email protected]: 52.9%, +2.7%), ActivityNet Captions ([email protected]: 56.0%, +5.3%), and QVHighlights (mAP: 30.0%, +3.0%). Moreover, TempSamp-R1 shows robust few-shot generalization capabilities under limited data. Code: https://github.com/HVision-NKU/TempSamp-R1

Large language models show great potential in generating and optimizing code. Widely used sampling methods such as Nucleus Sampling increase the diversity of generation but often produce repeated samples for low temperatures and incoherent samples for high temperatures. Furthermore, the temperature coefficient has to be tuned for each task, limiting its usability. We present Priority Sampling, a simple and deterministic sampling technique that produces unique samples ordered by the model's confidence. Each new sample expands the unexpanded token with the highest probability in the augmented search tree. Additionally, Priority Sampling supports generation based on regular expression that provides a controllable and structured exploration process. Priority Sampling outperforms Nucleus Sampling for any number of samples, boosting the performance of the original model from 2.87% to 5% improvement over -Oz. Moreover, it outperforms the autotuner used for the generation of labels for the training of the original model in just 30 samples.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

When two different parties use the same learning rule on their own data, how can we test whether the distributions of the two outcomes are similar? In this paper, we study the similarity of outcomes of learning rules through the lens of the Total Variation (TV) distance of distributions. We say that a learning rule is TV indistinguishable if the expected TV distance between the posterior distributions of its outputs, executed on two training data sets drawn independently from the same distribution, is small. We first investigate the learnability of hypothesis classes using TV indistinguishable learners. Our main results are information-theoretic equivalences between TV indistinguishability and existing algorithmic stability notions such as replicability and approximate differential privacy. Then, we provide statistical amplification and boosting algorithms for TV indistinguishable learners.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

From crop mapping to flood detection, machine learning in remote sensing has a wide range of societally beneficial applications. The commonalities between remote sensing data in these applications present an opportunity for pretrained machine learning models tailored to remote sensing to reduce the labeled data and effort required to solve individual tasks. However, such models must be: (i) flexible enough to ingest input data of varying sensor modalities and shapes (i.e., of varying spatial and temporal dimensions), and (ii) able to model Earth surface phenomena of varying scales and types. To solve this gap, we present Galileo, a family of pretrained remote sensing models designed to flexibly process multimodal remote sensing data. We also introduce a novel and highly effective self-supervised learning approach to learn both large- and small-scale features, a challenge not addressed by previous models. Our Galileo models obtain state-of-the-art results across diverse remote sensing tasks.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

Understanding Transformer-based models has attracted significant attention, as they lie at the heart of recent technological advances across machine learning. While most interpretability methods rely on running models over inputs, recent work has shown that a zero-pass approach, where parameters are interpreted directly without a forward/backward pass is feasible for some Transformer parameters, and for two-layer attention networks. In this work, we present a theoretical analysis where all parameters of a trained Transformer are interpreted by projecting them into the embedding space, that is, the space of vocabulary items they operate on. We derive a simple theoretical framework to support our arguments and provide ample evidence for its validity. First, an empirical analysis showing that parameters of both pretrained and fine-tuned models can be interpreted in embedding space. Second, we present two applications of our framework: (a) aligning the parameters of different models that share a vocabulary, and (b) constructing a classifier without training by ``translating'' the parameters of a fine-tuned classifier to parameters of a different model that was only pretrained. Overall, our findings open the door to interpretation methods that, at least in part, abstract away from model specifics and operate in the embedding space only.

Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VITA is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pretraining and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the U.S. Corn Belt, VITA achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VITA outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and bigger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use--especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

Chaotic systems are intrinsically sensitive to small errors, challenging efforts to construct predictive data-driven models of real-world dynamical systems such as fluid flows or neuronal activity. Prior efforts comprise either specialized models trained separately on individual time series, or foundation models trained on vast time series databases with little underlying dynamical structure. Motivated by dynamical systems theory, we present Panda, Patched Attention for Nonlinear DynAmics. We train Panda on a novel synthetic, extensible dataset of 2 times 10^4 chaotic dynamical systems that we discover using an evolutionary algorithm. Trained purely on simulated data, Panda exhibits emergent properties: zero-shot forecasting of unseen real world chaotic systems, and nonlinear resonance patterns in cross-channel attention heads. Despite having been trained only on low-dimensional ordinary differential equations, Panda spontaneously develops the ability to predict partial differential equations without retraining. We demonstrate a neural scaling law for differential equations, underscoring the potential of pretrained models for probing abstract mathematical domains like nonlinear dynamics.

Despite major advances in methodology, hyperparameter tuning remains a crucial (and expensive) part of the development of machine learning systems. Even ignoring architectural choices, deep neural networks have a large number of optimization and regularization hyperparameters that need to be tuned carefully per workload in order to obtain the best results. In a perfect world, training algorithms would not require workload-specific hyperparameter tuning, but would instead have default settings that performed well across many workloads. Recently, there has been a growing literature on optimization methods which attempt to reduce the number of hyperparameters -- particularly the learning rate and its accompanying schedule. Given these developments, how far away is the dream of neural network training algorithms that completely obviate the need for painful tuning? In this paper, we evaluate the potential of learning-rate-free methods as components of hyperparameter-free methods. We freeze their (non-learning rate) hyperparameters to default values, and score their performance using the recently-proposed AlgoPerf: Training Algorithms benchmark. We found that literature-supplied default settings performed poorly on the benchmark, so we performed a search for hyperparameter configurations that performed well across all workloads simultaneously. The best AlgoPerf-calibrated learning-rate-free methods had much improved performance but still lagged slightly behind a similarly calibrated NadamW baseline in overall benchmark score. Our results suggest that there is still much room for improvement for learning-rate-free methods, and that testing against a strong, workload-agnostic baseline is important to improve hyperparameter reduction techniques.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

We carry out an information-theoretical analysis of a two-layer neural network trained from input-output pairs generated by a teacher network with matching architecture, in overparametrized regimes. Our results come in the form of bounds relating i) the mutual information between training data and network weights, or ii) the Bayes-optimal generalization error, to the same quantities but for a simpler (generalized) linear model for which explicit expressions are rigorously known. Our bounds, which are expressed in terms of the number of training samples, input dimension and number of hidden units, thus yield fundamental performance limits for any neural network (and actually any learning procedure) trained from limited data generated according to our two-layer teacher neural network model. The proof relies on rigorous tools from spin glasses and is guided by ``Gaussian equivalence principles'' lying at the core of numerous recent analyses of neural networks. With respect to the existing literature, which is either non-rigorous or restricted to the case of the learning of the readout weights only, our results are information-theoretic (i.e. are not specific to any learning algorithm) and, importantly, cover a setting where all the network parameters are trained.

Existing neural active learning algorithms have aimed to optimize the predictive performance of neural networks (NNs) by selecting data for labelling. However, other than a good predictive performance, being robust against random parameter initializations is also a crucial requirement in safety-critical applications. To this end, we introduce our expected variance with Gaussian processes (EV-GP) criterion for neural active learning, which is theoretically guaranteed to select data points which lead to trained NNs with both (a) good predictive performances and (b) initialization robustness. Importantly, our EV-GP criterion is training-free, i.e., it does not require any training of the NN during data selection, which makes it computationally efficient. We empirically demonstrate that our EV-GP criterion is highly correlated with both initialization robustness and generalization performance, and show that it consistently outperforms baseline methods in terms of both desiderata, especially in situations with limited initial data or large batch sizes.

The approximation capability of ANNs and their RNN instantiations, is strongly correlated with the number of parameters packed into these networks. However, the complexity barrier for human understanding, is arguably related to the number of neurons and synapses in the networks, and to the associated nonlinear transformations. In this paper we show that the use of biophysical synapses, as found in LTCs, have two main benefits. First, they allow to pack more parameters for a given number of neurons and synapses. Second, they allow to formulate the nonlinear-network transformation, as a linear system with state-dependent coefficients. Both increase interpretability, as for a given task, they allow to learn a system linear in its input features, that is smaller in size compared to the state of the art. We substantiate the above claims on various time-series prediction tasks, but we believe that our results are applicable to any feedforward or recurrent ANN.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches for weather forecasting based on deep learning have shown great promise, achieving accuracies that are competitive with operational systems. However, those methods often employ complex, customized architectures without sufficient ablation analysis, making it difficult to understand what truly contributes to their success. Here we introduce Stormer, a simple transformer model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on weather forecasting with minimal changes to the standard transformer backbone. We identify the key components of Stormer through careful empirical analyses, including weather-specific embedding, randomized dynamics forecast, and pressure-weighted loss. At the core of Stormer is a randomized forecasting objective that trains the model to forecast the weather dynamics over varying time intervals. During inference, this allows us to produce multiple forecasts for a target lead time and combine them to obtain better forecast accuracy. On WeatherBench 2, Stormer performs competitively at short to medium-range forecasts and outperforms current methods beyond 7 days, while requiring orders-of-magnitude less training data and compute. Additionally, we demonstrate Stormer's favorable scaling properties, showing consistent improvements in forecast accuracy with increases in model size and training tokens. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/stormer.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

As hyperparameter tuning becomes increasingly costly at scale, efficient tuning methods are essential. Yet principles for guiding hyperparameter tuning remain limited. In this work, we seek to establish such principles by considering a broad range of hyperparameters, including batch size, learning rate, and weight decay. We identify a phenomenon we call trajectory invariance, where pre-training loss curves, gradient noise, and gradient norm exhibit invariance--closely overlapping--with respect to a quantity that combines learning rate and weight decay. This phenomenon effectively reduces the original two-dimensional hyperparameter space to one dimension, yielding an efficient tuning rule: follow the salient direction revealed by trajectory invariance. Furthermore, we refine previous scaling laws and challenge several existing viewpoints. Overall, our work proposes new principles for efficient tuning and inspires future research on scaling laws.

With few exceptions, neural networks have been relying on backpropagation and gradient descent as the inference engine in order to learn the model parameters, because the closed-form Bayesian inference for neural networks has been considered to be intractable. In this paper, we show how we can leverage the tractable approximate Gaussian inference's (TAGI) capabilities to infer hidden states, rather than only using it for inferring the network's parameters. One novel aspect it allows is to infer hidden states through the imposition of constraints designed to achieve specific objectives, as illustrated through three examples: (1) the generation of adversarial-attack examples, (2) the usage of a neural network as a black-box optimization method, and (3) the application of inference on continuous-action reinforcement learning. These applications showcase how tasks that were previously reserved to gradient-based optimization approaches can now be approached with analytically tractable inference

Many data have an underlying dependence on spatial location; it may be weather on the Earth, a simulation on a mesh, or a registered image. Yet this feature is rarely taken advantage of, and violates common assumptions made by many neural network layers, such as translation equivariance. Further, many works that do incorporate locality fail to capture fine-grained structure. To address this, we introduce the Spatial Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer, a sparsely-gated layer that learns spatial structure in the input domain and routes experts at a fine-grained level to utilize it. We also develop new techniques to train SMoEs, including a self-supervised routing loss and damping expert errors. Finally, we show strong results for SMoEs on numerous tasks, and set new state-of-the-art results for medium-range weather prediction and post-processing ensemble weather forecasts.

We study the memorization power of feedforward ReLU neural networks. We show that such networks can memorize any N points that satisfy a mild separability assumption using Oleft(Nright) parameters. Known VC-dimension upper bounds imply that memorizing N samples requires Omega(N) parameters, and hence our construction is optimal up to logarithmic factors. We also give a generalized construction for networks with depth bounded by 1 leq L leq N, for memorizing N samples using O(N/L) parameters. This bound is also optimal up to logarithmic factors. Our construction uses weights with large bit complexity. We prove that having such a large bit complexity is both necessary and sufficient for memorization with a sub-linear number of parameters.

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and, therefore, often generate coarse-resolution predictions. Statistical downscaling, including super-resolution methods from deep learning, can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. However, despite achieving visually compelling results in some cases, such models frequently violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve physical quantities, here we introduce methods that guarantee statistical constraints are satisfied by a deep learning downscaling model, while also improving their performance according to traditional metrics. We compare different constraining approaches and demonstrate their applicability across different neural architectures as well as a variety of climate and weather data sets. Besides enabling faster and more accurate climate predictions through downscaling, we also show that our novel methodologies can improve super-resolution for satellite data and natural images data sets.

As its width tends to infinity, a deep neural network's behavior under gradient descent can become simplified and predictable (e.g. given by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK)), if it is parametrized appropriately (e.g. the NTK parametrization). However, we show that the standard and NTK parametrizations of a neural network do not admit infinite-width limits that can learn features, which is crucial for pretraining and transfer learning such as with BERT. We propose simple modifications to the standard parametrization to allow for feature learning in the limit. Using the *Tensor Programs* technique, we derive explicit formulas for such limits. On Word2Vec and few-shot learning on Omniglot via MAML, two canonical tasks that rely crucially on feature learning, we compute these limits exactly. We find that they outperform both NTK baselines and finite-width networks, with the latter approaching the infinite-width feature learning performance as width increases. More generally, we classify a natural space of neural network parametrizations that generalizes standard, NTK, and Mean Field parametrizations. We show 1) any parametrization in this space either admits feature learning or has an infinite-width training dynamics given by kernel gradient descent, but not both; 2) any such infinite-width limit can be computed using the Tensor Programs technique. Code for our experiments can be found at github.com/edwardjhu/TP4.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

A key challenge for computationally intensive state-of-the-art Earth System models is to distinguish global warming signals from interannual variability. Here we introduce DLESyM, a parsimonious deep learning model that accurately simulates the Earth's current climate over 1000-year periods with no smoothing or drift. DLESyM simulations equal or exceed key metrics of seasonal and interannual variability--such as tropical cyclogenesis over the range of observed intensities, the cycle of the Indian Summer monsoon, and the climatology of mid-latitude blocking events--when compared to historical simulations from four leading models from the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project. DLESyM, trained on both historical reanalysis data and satellite observations, is an accurate, highly efficient model of the coupled Earth system, empowering long-range sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts while using a fraction of the energy and computational time required by traditional models.

Representing a manifold of very high-dimensional data with generative models has been shown to be computationally efficient in practice. However, this requires that the data manifold admits a global parameterization. In order to represent manifolds of arbitrary topology, we propose to learn a mixture model of variational autoencoders. Here, every encoder-decoder pair represents one chart of a manifold. We propose a loss function for maximum likelihood estimation of the model weights and choose an architecture that provides us the analytical expression of the charts and of their inverses. Once the manifold is learned, we use it for solving inverse problems by minimizing a data fidelity term restricted to the learned manifold. To solve the arising minimization problem we propose a Riemannian gradient descent algorithm on the learned manifold. We demonstrate the performance of our method for low-dimensional toy examples as well as for deblurring and electrical impedance tomography on certain image manifolds.

With the growing size of pre-trained models, full fine-tuning and storing all the parameters for various downstream tasks is costly and infeasible. In this paper, we propose a new parameter-efficient fine-tuning method, Gradient-based Parameter Selection (GPS), demonstrating that only tuning a few selected parameters from the pre-trained model while keeping the remainder of the model frozen can generate similar or better performance compared with the full model fine-tuning method. Different from the existing popular and state-of-the-art parameter-efficient fine-tuning approaches, our method does not introduce any additional parameters and computational costs during both the training and inference stages. Another advantage is the model-agnostic and non-destructive property, which eliminates the need for any other design specific to a particular model. Compared with the full fine-tuning, GPS achieves 3.33% (91.78% vs. 88.45%, FGVC) and 9.61% (73.1% vs. 65.57%, VTAB) improvement of the accuracy with tuning only 0.36% parameters of the pre-trained model on average over 24 image classification tasks; it also demonstrates a significant improvement of 17% and 16.8% in mDice and mIoU, respectively, on medical image segmentation task. Moreover, GPS achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with existing PEFT methods.

Deep learning on climatic data holds potential for macroecological applications. However, its adoption remains limited among scientists outside the deep learning community due to storage, compute, and technical expertise barriers. To address this, we introduce Climplicit, a spatio-temporal geolocation encoder pretrained to generate implicit climatic representations anywhere on Earth. By bypassing the need to download raw climatic rasters and train feature extractors, our model uses x3500 less disk space and significantly reduces computational needs for downstream tasks. We evaluate our Climplicit embeddings on biomes classification, species distribution modeling, and plant trait regression. We find that single-layer probing our Climplicit embeddings consistently performs better or on par with training a model from scratch on downstream tasks and overall better than alternative geolocation encoding models.

TabPFN [Hollmann et al., 2023], a Transformer model pretrained to perform in-context learning on fresh tabular classification problems, was presented at the last ICLR conference. To better understand its behavior, we treat it as a black-box function approximator generator and observe its generated function approximations on a varied selection of training datasets. Exploring its learned inductive biases in this manner, we observe behavior that is at turns either brilliant or baffling. We conclude this post with thoughts on how these results might inform the development, evaluation, and application of prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) in the future.

Large language models (LLMs) typically employ greedy decoding or low-temperature sampling for reasoning tasks, reflecting a perceived trade-off between diversity and accuracy. We challenge this convention by introducing top-nsigma, a novel sampling method that operates directly on pre-softmax logits by leveraging a statistical threshold. Our key insight is that logits naturally separate into a Gaussian-distributed noisy region and a distinct informative region, enabling efficient token filtering without complex probability manipulations. Unlike existing methods (e.g., top-p, min-p) that inadvertently include more noise tokens at higher temperatures, top-nsigma maintains a stable sampling space regardless of temperature scaling. We also provide a theoretical analysis of top-nsigma to better understand its behavior. The extensive experimental results across four reasoning-focused datasets demonstrate that our method not only outperforms existing sampling approaches but also surpasses greedy decoding, while maintaining consistent performance even at high temperatures.

Recent years have seen a growing interest and adoption of LLMs, with muTransfer becoming a key technique for tuning hyperparameters in large-scale training. Meanwhile, Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has emerged as a leading architecture in extremely large models. However, the intersection of these two advancements has remained unexplored. In this work, we derive a mu-Parameterization (muP) for MoE, providing theoretical guarantees for feature learning across model widths in both the router and experts. We empirically validate our parameterization and further investigate how scaling the number of experts and granularity affects the optimal learning rate.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

State-of-the-art parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods rely on introducing adapter modules between the layers of a pretrained language model. However, such modules are trained separately for each task and thus do not enable sharing information across tasks. In this paper, we show that we can learn adapter parameters for all layers and tasks by generating them using shared hypernetworks, which condition on task, adapter position, and layer id in a transformer model. This parameter-efficient multi-task learning framework allows us to achieve the best of both worlds by sharing knowledge across tasks via hypernetworks while enabling the model to adapt to each individual task through task-specific adapters. Experiments on the well-known GLUE benchmark show improved performance in multi-task learning while adding only 0.29% parameters per task. We additionally demonstrate substantial performance improvements in few-shot domain generalization across a variety of tasks. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/rabeehk/hyperformer.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

We study the gradients of a maxout network with respect to inputs and parameters and obtain bounds for the moments depending on the architecture and the parameter distribution. We observe that the distribution of the input-output Jacobian depends on the input, which complicates a stable parameter initialization. Based on the moments of the gradients, we formulate parameter initialization strategies that avoid vanishing and exploding gradients in wide networks. Experiments with deep fully-connected and convolutional networks show that this strategy improves SGD and Adam training of deep maxout networks. In addition, we obtain refined bounds on the expected number of linear regions, results on the expected curve length distortion, and results on the NTK.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

We present SmolTulu-1.7b-Instruct, referenced in this report as SmolTulu-DPO-1130, an instruction-tuned language model that adapts AllenAI's Tulu 3 post-training pipeline to enhance Huggingface's SmolLM2-1.7B base model. Through comprehensive empirical analysis using a 135M parameter model, we demonstrate that the relationship between learning rate and batch size significantly impacts model performance in a task-dependent manner. Our findings reveal a clear split: reasoning tasks like ARC and GSM8K benefit from higher learning rate to batch size ratios, while pattern recognition tasks such as HellaSwag and IFEval show optimal performance with lower ratios. These insights informed the development of SmolTulu, which achieves state-of-the-art performance among sub-2B parameter models on instruction following, scoring 67.7% on IFEval (Delta11%), and mathematical reasoning with 51.6% on GSM8K (Delta3.4%), with an alternate version achieving scoring 57.1% on ARC (Delta5.4%). We release our model, training recipes, and ablation studies to facilitate further research in efficient model alignment, demonstrating that careful adaptation of optimization dynamics can help bridge the capability gap between small and large language models.

Similar to conventional video generation, current deep learning-based weather prediction frameworks often lack explicit physical constraints, leading to unphysical outputs that limit their reliability for operational forecasting. Among various physical processes requiring proper representation, radiation plays a fundamental role as it drives Earth's weather and climate systems. However, accurate simulation of radiative transfer processes remains challenging for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to their inherent complexity and high computational costs. Here, we propose FuXi-RTM, a hybrid physics-guided deep learning framework designed to enhance weather forecast accuracy while enforcing physical consistency. FuXi-RTM integrates a primary forecasting model (FuXi) with a fixed deep learning-based radiative transfer model (DLRTM) surrogate that efficiently replaces conventional radiation parameterization schemes. This represents the first deep learning-based weather forecasting framework to explicitly incorporate physical process modeling. Evaluated over a comprehensive 5-year dataset, FuXi-RTM outperforms its unconstrained counterpart in 88.51% of 3320 variable and lead time combinations, with improvements in radiative flux predictions. By incorporating additional physical processes, FuXi-RTM paves the way for next-generation weather forecasting systems that are both accurate and physically consistent.

Architecture optimization, which is a technique for finding an efficient neural network that meets certain requirements, generally reduces to a set of multiple-choice selection problems among alternative sub-structures or parameters. The discrete nature of the selection problem, however, makes this optimization difficult. To tackle this problem we introduce a novel concept of a trainable gate function. The trainable gate function, which confers a differentiable property to discretevalued variables, allows us to directly optimize loss functions that include non-differentiable discrete values such as 0-1 selection. The proposed trainable gate can be applied to pruning. Pruning can be carried out simply by appending the proposed trainable gate functions to each intermediate output tensor followed by fine-tuning the overall model, using any gradient-based training methods. So the proposed method can jointly optimize the selection of the pruned channels while fine-tuning the weights of the pruned model at the same time. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method efficiently optimizes arbitrary neural networks in various tasks such as image classification, style transfer, optical flow estimation, and neural machine translation.

We present the Power Law Graph Transformer, a transformer model with well defined deductive and inductive tasks for prediction and representation learning. The deductive task learns the dataset level (global) and instance level (local) graph structures in terms of learnable power law distribution parameters. The inductive task outputs the prediction probabilities using the deductive task output, similar to a transductive model. We trained our model with Turkish-English and Portuguese-English datasets from TED talk transcripts for machine translation and compared the model performance and characteristics to a transformer model with scaled dot product attention trained on the same experimental setup. We report BLEU scores of 17.79 and 28.33 on the Turkish-English and Portuguese-English translation tasks with our model, respectively. We also show how a duality between a quantization set and N-dimensional manifold representation can be leveraged to transform between local and global deductive-inductive outputs using successive application of linear and non-linear transformations end-to-end.

Physics-informed deep learning often faces optimization challenges due to the complexity of solving partial differential equations (PDEs), which involve exploring large solution spaces, require numerous iterations, and can lead to unstable training. These challenges arise particularly from the ill-conditioning of the optimization problem caused by the differential terms in the loss function. To address these issues, we propose learning a solver, i.e., solving PDEs using a physics-informed iterative algorithm trained on data. Our method learns to condition a gradient descent algorithm that automatically adapts to each PDE instance, significantly accelerating and stabilizing the optimization process and enabling faster convergence of physics-aware models. Furthermore, while traditional physics-informed methods solve for a single PDE instance, our approach extends to parametric PDEs. Specifically, we integrate the physical loss gradient with PDE parameters, allowing our method to solve over a distribution of PDE parameters, including coefficients, initial conditions, and boundary conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through empirical experiments on multiple datasets, comparing both training and test-time optimization performance. The code is available at https://github.com/2ailesB/neural-parametric-solver.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

We propose an algorithm for inexpensive gradient-based hyperparameter optimization that combines the implicit function theorem (IFT) with efficient inverse Hessian approximations. We present results about the relationship between the IFT and differentiating through optimization, motivating our algorithm. We use the proposed approach to train modern network architectures with millions of weights and millions of hyper-parameters. For example, we learn a data-augmentation network - where every weight is a hyperparameter tuned for validation performance - outputting augmented training examples. Jointly tuning weights and hyperparameters with our approach is only a few times more costly in memory and compute than standard training.

Pre-training (PT) followed by fine-tuning (FT) is an effective method for training neural networks, and has led to significant performance improvements in many domains. PT can incorporate various design choices such as task and data reweighting strategies, augmentation policies, and noise models, all of which can significantly impact the quality of representations learned. The hyperparameters introduced by these strategies therefore must be tuned appropriately. However, setting the values of these hyperparameters is challenging. Most existing methods either struggle to scale to high dimensions, are too slow and memory-intensive, or cannot be directly applied to the two-stage PT and FT learning process. In this work, we propose an efficient, gradient-based algorithm to meta-learn PT hyperparameters. We formalize the PT hyperparameter optimization problem and propose a novel method to obtain PT hyperparameter gradients by combining implicit differentiation and backpropagation through unrolled optimization. We demonstrate that our method improves predictive performance on two real-world domains. First, we optimize high-dimensional task weighting hyperparameters for multitask pre-training on protein-protein interaction graphs and improve AUROC by up to 3.9%. Second, we optimize a data augmentation neural network for self-supervised PT with SimCLR on electrocardiography data and improve AUROC by up to 1.9%.

This paper presents a modeling effort to explore the underlying physics of temperature evolution during additive friction stir deposition (AFSD) by a human-AI teaming approach. AFSD is an emerging solid-state additive manufacturing technology that deposits materials without melting. However, both process modeling and modeling of the AFSD tool are at an early stage. In this paper, a human-AI teaming approach is proposed to combine models based on first principles with AI. The resulting human-informed machine learning method, denoted as AFSD-Physics, can effectively learn the governing equations of temperature evolution at the tool and the build from in-process measurements. Experiments are designed and conducted to collect in-process measurements for the deposition of aluminum 7075 with a total of 30 layers. The acquired governing equations are physically interpretable models with low computational cost and high accuracy. Model predictions show good agreement with the measurements. Experimental validation with new process parameters demonstrates the model's generalizability and potential for use in tool temperature control and process optimization.

Meta learning have achieved promising performance in low-resource text classification which aims to identify target classes with knowledge transferred from source classes with sets of small tasks named episodes. However, due to the limited training data in the meta-learning scenario and the inherent properties of parameterized neural networks, poor generalization performance has become a pressing problem that needs to be addressed. To deal with this issue, we propose a meta-learning based method called Retrieval-Augmented Meta Learning(RAML). It not only uses parameterization for inference but also retrieves non-parametric knowledge from an external corpus to make inferences, which greatly alleviates the problem of poor generalization performance caused by the lack of diverse training data in meta-learning. This method differs from previous models that solely rely on parameters, as it explicitly emphasizes the importance of non-parametric knowledge, aiming to strike a balance between parameterized neural networks and non-parametric knowledge. The model is required to determine which knowledge to access and utilize during inference. Additionally, our multi-view passages fusion network module can effectively and efficiently integrate the retrieved information into low-resource classification task. The extensive experiments demonstrate that RAML significantly outperforms current SOTA low-resource text classification models.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

Important classes of active matter systems can be modeled using kinetic theories. However, kinetic theories can be high dimensional and challenging to simulate. Reduced-order representations based on tracking only low-order moments of the kinetic model serve as an efficient alternative, but typically require closure assumptions to model unrepresented higher-order moments. In this study, we present a learning framework based on neural networks that exploit rotational symmetries in the closure terms to learn accurate closure models directly from kinetic simulations. The data-driven closures demonstrate excellent a-priori predictions comparable to the state-of-the-art Bingham closure. We provide a systematic comparison between different neural network architectures and demonstrate that nonlocal effects can be safely ignored to model the closure terms. We develop an active learning strategy that enables accurate prediction of the closure terms across the entire parameter space using a single neural network without the need for retraining. We also propose a data-efficient training procedure based on time-stepping constraints and a differentiable pseudo-spectral solver, which enables the learning of stable closures suitable for a-posteriori inference. The coarse-grained simulations equipped with data-driven closure models faithfully reproduce the mean velocity statistics, scalar order parameters, and velocity power spectra observed in simulations of the kinetic theory. Our differentiable framework also facilitates the estimation of parameters in coarse-grained descriptions conditioned on data.

Investigating NLP through a philosophical lens has recently caught researcher's eyes as it connects computational methods with classical schools of philosophy. This paper introduces a philosophical approach inspired by the Hegelian Dialectic for LLMs' self-reflection, utilizing a self-dialectical approach to emulate internal critiques and then synthesize new ideas by resolving the contradicting points. Moreover, this paper investigates the effect of LLMs' temperature for generation by establishing a dynamic annealing approach, which promotes the creativity in the early stages and gradually refines it by focusing on the nuances, as well as a fixed temperature strategy for generation. Our proposed approach is examined to determine its ability to generate novel ideas from an initial proposition. Additionally, a Multi Agent Majority Voting (MAMV) strategy is leveraged to assess the validity and novelty of the generated ideas, which proves beneficial in the absence of domain experts. Our experiments show promise in generating new ideas and provide a stepping stone for future research.