Daily Papers

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Autoregressive point cloud generation has long lagged behind diffusion-based approaches in quality. The performance gap stems from the fact that autoregressive models impose an artificial ordering on inherently unordered point sets, forcing shape generation to proceed as a sequence of local predictions. This sequential bias emphasizes short-range continuity but undermines the model's capacity to capture long-range dependencies, hindering its ability to enforce global structural properties such as symmetry, consistent topology, and large-scale geometric regularities. Inspired by the level-of-detail (LOD) principle in shape modeling, we propose PointNSP, a coarse-to-fine generative framework that preserves global shape structure at low resolutions and progressively refines fine-grained geometry at higher scales through a next-scale prediction paradigm. This multi-scale factorization aligns the autoregressive objective with the permutation-invariant nature of point sets, enabling rich intra-scale interactions while avoiding brittle fixed orderings. Experiments on ShapeNet show that PointNSP establishes state-of-the-art (SOTA) generation quality for the first time within the autoregressive paradigm. In addition, it surpasses strong diffusion-based baselines in parameter, training, and inference efficiency. Finally, in dense generation with 8,192 points, PointNSP's advantages become even more pronounced, underscoring its scalability potential.

Most recent real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR) methods employ pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models to synthesize the high-quality image either from random Gaussian noise, which yields realistic results but is slow due to iterative denoising, or directly from the input low-quality image, which is efficient but at the price of lower output quality. These approaches train ControlNet or LoRA modules while keeping the pre-trained model fixed, which often introduces over-enhanced artifacts and hallucinations, suffering from the robustness to inputs of varying degradations. Recent visual autoregressive (AR) models, such as pre-trained Infinity, can provide strong T2I generation capabilities while offering superior efficiency by using the bitwise next-scale prediction strategy. Building upon next-scale prediction, we introduce a robust Real-ISR framework, namely Next-Scale Autoregressive Modeling (NSARM). Specifically, we train NSARM in two stages: a transformation network is first trained to map the input low-quality image to preliminary scales, followed by an end-to-end full-model fine-tuning. Such a comprehensive fine-tuning enhances the robustness of NSARM in Real-ISR tasks without compromising its generative capability. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that as a pure AR model, NSARM achieves superior visual results over existing Real-ISR methods while maintaining a fast inference speed. Most importantly, it demonstrates much higher robustness to the quality of input images, showing stronger generalization performance. Project page: https://github.com/Xiangtaokong/NSARM

This work presents Switti, a scale-wise transformer for text-to-image generation. Starting from existing next-scale prediction AR models, we first explore them for T2I generation and propose architectural modifications to improve their convergence and overall performance. We then observe that self-attention maps of our pretrained scale-wise AR model exhibit weak dependence on preceding scales. Based on this insight, we propose a non-AR counterpart facilitating {sim}11% faster sampling and lower memory usage while also achieving slightly better generation quality.Furthermore, we reveal that classifier-free guidance at high-resolution scales is often unnecessary and can even degrade performance. %may be not only unnecessary but potentially detrimental. By disabling guidance at these scales, we achieve an additional sampling acceleration of {sim}20% and improve the generation of fine-grained details. Extensive human preference studies and automated evaluations show that Switti outperforms existing T2I AR models and competes with state-of-the-art T2I diffusion models while being up to 7{times} faster.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

Autoregressive (AR) transformers have emerged as a powerful paradigm for visual generation, largely due to their scalability, computational efficiency and unified architecture with language and vision. Among them, next scale prediction Visual Autoregressive Generation (VAR) has recently demonstrated remarkable performance, even surpassing diffusion-based models. In this work, we revisit VAR and uncover a theoretical insight: when equipped with a Markovian attention mask, VAR is mathematically equivalent to a discrete diffusion. We term this reinterpretation as Scalable Visual Refinement with Discrete Diffusion (SRDD), establishing a principled bridge between AR transformers and diffusion models. Leveraging this new perspective, we show how one can directly import the advantages of diffusion such as iterative refinement and reduce architectural inefficiencies into VAR, yielding faster convergence, lower inference cost, and improved zero-shot reconstruction. Across multiple datasets, we show that the diffusion based perspective of VAR leads to consistent gains in efficiency and generation.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) generative models have produced increasingly powerful systems for media synthesis. Among them, next-scale prediction has emerged as a popular paradigm, where models generate images in a coarse-to-fine manner. However, scale-wise AR models suffer from exposure bias, which undermines generation quality. We identify two primary causes of this issue: (1) train-test mismatch, where the model must rely on its own imperfect predictions during inference, and (2) imbalance in scale-wise learning difficulty, where certain scales exhibit disproportionately higher optimization complexity. Through a comprehensive analysis of training dynamics, we propose Self-Autoregressive Refinement (SAR) to address these limitations. SAR introduces a Stagger-Scale Rollout (SSR) mechanism that performs lightweight autoregressive rollouts to expose the model to its own intermediate predictions, thereby aligning train-test patterns, and a complementary Contrastive Student-Forcing Loss (CSFL) that provides adequate supervision for self-generated contexts to ensure stable training. Experimental results show that applying SAR to pretrained AR models consistently improves generation quality with minimal computational overhead. For instance, SAR yields a 5.2% FID reduction on FlexVAR-d16 trained on ImageNet 256 within 10 epochs (5 hours on 32xA100 GPUs). Given its efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness, we expect SAR to serve as a reliable post-training method for visual autoregressive generation.

Essential to visual generation is efficient modeling of visual data priors. Conventional next-token prediction methods define the process as learning the conditional probability distribution of successive tokens. Recently, next-scale prediction methods redefine the process to learn the distribution over multi-scale representations, significantly reducing generation latency. However, these methods condition each scale on all previous scales and require each token to consider all preceding tokens, exhibiting scale and spatial redundancy. To better model the distribution by mitigating redundancy, we propose Markovian Visual AutoRegressive modeling (MVAR), a novel autoregressive framework that introduces scale and spatial Markov assumptions to reduce the complexity of conditional probability modeling. Specifically, we introduce a scale-Markov trajectory that only takes as input the features of adjacent preceding scale for next-scale prediction, enabling the adoption of a parallel training strategy that significantly reduces GPU memory consumption. Furthermore, we propose spatial-Markov attention, which restricts the attention of each token to a localized neighborhood of size k at corresponding positions on adjacent scales, rather than attending to every token across these scales, for the pursuit of reduced modeling complexity. Building on these improvements, we reduce the computational complexity of attention calculation from O(N^2) to O(Nk), enabling training with just eight NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPUs and eliminating the need for KV cache during inference. Extensive experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that MVAR achieves comparable or superior performance with both small model trained from scratch and large fine-tuned models, while reducing the average GPU memory footprint by 3.0x.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling has garnered significant attention for its innovative next-scale prediction approach, which yields substantial improvements in efficiency, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. Nevertheless, the coarse-to-fine methodology inherent in VAR results in exponential growth of the KV cache during inference, causing considerable memory consumption and computational redundancy. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce ScaleKV, a novel KV cache compression framework tailored for VAR architectures. ScaleKV leverages two critical observations: varying cache demands across transformer layers and distinct attention patterns at different scales. Based on these insights, ScaleKV categorizes transformer layers into two functional groups: drafters and refiners. Drafters exhibit dispersed attention across multiple scales, thereby requiring greater cache capacity. Conversely, refiners focus attention on the current token map to process local details, consequently necessitating substantially reduced cache capacity. ScaleKV optimizes the multi-scale inference pipeline by identifying scale-specific drafters and refiners, facilitating differentiated cache management tailored to each scale. Evaluation on the state-of-the-art text-to-image VAR model family, Infinity, demonstrates that our approach effectively reduces the required KV cache memory to 10% while preserving pixel-level fidelity.

We present SwD, a scale-wise distillation framework for diffusion models (DMs), which effectively employs next-scale prediction ideas for diffusion-based few-step generators. In more detail, SwD is inspired by the recent insights relating diffusion processes to the implicit spectral autoregression. We suppose that DMs can initiate generation at lower data resolutions and gradually upscale the samples at each denoising step without loss in performance while significantly reducing computational costs. SwD naturally integrates this idea into existing diffusion distillation methods based on distribution matching. Also, we enrich the family of distribution matching approaches by introducing a novel patch loss enforcing finer-grained similarity to the target distribution. When applied to state-of-the-art text-to-image diffusion models, SwD approaches the inference times of two full resolution steps and significantly outperforms the counterparts under the same computation budget, as evidenced by automated metrics and human preference studies.

Controllable image synthesis, which enables fine-grained control over generated outputs, has emerged as a key focus in visual generative modeling. However, controllable generation remains challenging for Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models due to their hierarchical, next-scale prediction style. Existing VAR-based methods often suffer from inefficient control encoding and disruptive injection mechanisms that compromise both fidelity and efficiency. In this work, we present SCALAR, a controllable generation method based on VAR, incorporating a novel Scale-wise Conditional Decoding mechanism. SCALAR leverages a pretrained image encoder to extract semantic control signal encodings, which are projected into scale-specific representations and injected into the corresponding layers of the VAR backbone. This design provides persistent and structurally aligned guidance throughout the generation process. Building on SCALAR, we develop SCALAR-Uni, a unified extension that aligns multiple control modalities into a shared latent space, supporting flexible multi-conditional guidance in a single model. Extensive experiments show that SCALAR achieves superior generation quality and control precision across various tasks.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

We present VARGPT, a novel multimodal large language model (MLLM) that unifies visual understanding and generation within a single autoregressive framework. VARGPT employs a next-token prediction paradigm for visual understanding and a next-scale prediction paradigm for visual autoregressive generation. VARGPT innovatively extends the LLaVA architecture, achieving efficient scale-wise autoregressive visual generation within MLLMs while seamlessly accommodating mixed-modal input and output within a single model framework. Our VARGPT undergoes a three-stage unified training process on specially curated datasets, comprising a pre-training phase and two mixed visual instruction-tuning phases. The unified training strategy are designed to achieve alignment between visual and textual features, enhance instruction following for both understanding and generation, and improve visual generation quality, respectively. Despite its LLAVA-based architecture for multimodel understanding, VARGPT significantly outperforms LLaVA-1.5 across various vision-centric benchmarks, such as visual question-answering and reasoning tasks. Notably, VARGPT naturally supports capabilities in autoregressive visual generation and instruction-to-image synthesis, showcasing its versatility in both visual understanding and generation tasks. Project page is at: https://vargpt-1.github.io/

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling departs from the next-token prediction paradigm of traditional Autoregressive (AR) models through next-scale prediction, enabling high-quality image generation. However, the VAR paradigm suffers from sharply increased computational complexity and running time at large-scale steps. Although existing acceleration methods reduce runtime for large-scale steps, but rely on manual step selection and overlook the varying importance of different stages in the generation process. To address this challenge, we present StageVAR, a systematic study and stage-aware acceleration framework for VAR models. Our analysis shows that early steps are critical for preserving semantic and structural consistency and should remain intact, while later steps mainly refine details and can be pruned or approximated for acceleration. Building on these insights, StageVAR introduces a plug-and-play acceleration strategy that exploits semantic irrelevance and low-rank properties in late-stage computations, without requiring additional training. Our proposed StageVAR achieves up to 3.4x speedup with only a 0.01 drop on GenEval and a 0.26 decrease on DPG, consistently outperforming existing acceleration baselines. These results highlight stage-aware design as a powerful principle for efficient visual autoregressive image generation.

Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models significantly reduce inference steps through the "next-scale" prediction paradigm. However, progressive multi-scale generation incurs substantial memory overhead due to cumulative KV caching, limiting practical deployment. We observe a scale-depth asymmetric dependency in VAR: early scales exhibit extreme sensitivity to network depth, while later scales remain robust to depth reduction. Inspired by this, we propose VARiant: by equidistant sampling, we select multiple subnets ranging from 16 to 2 layers from the original 30-layer VAR-d30 network. Early scales are processed by the full network, while later scales utilize subnet. Subnet and the full network share weights, enabling flexible depth adjustment within a single model. However, weight sharing between subnet and the entire network can lead to optimization conflicts. To address this, we propose a progressive training strategy that breaks through the Pareto frontier of generation quality for both subnets and the full network under fixed-ratio training, achieving joint optimality. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that, compared to the pretrained VAR-d30 (FID 1.95), VARiant-d16 and VARiant-d8 achieve nearly equivalent quality (FID 2.05/2.12) while reducing memory consumption by 40-65%. VARiant-d2 achieves 3.5 times speedup and 80% memory reduction at moderate quality cost (FID 2.97). In terms of deployment, VARiant's single-model architecture supports zero-cost runtime depth switching and provides flexible deployment options from high quality to extreme efficiency, catering to diverse application scenarios.

VAR is a new generation paradigm that employs 'next-scale prediction' as opposed to 'next-token prediction'. This innovative transformation enables auto-regressive (AR) transformers to rapidly learn visual distributions and achieve robust generalization. However, the original VAR model is constrained to class-conditioned synthesis, relying solely on textual captions for guidance. In this paper, we introduce VAR-CLIP, a novel text-to-image model that integrates Visual Auto-Regressive techniques with the capabilities of CLIP. The VAR-CLIP framework encodes captions into text embeddings, which are then utilized as textual conditions for image generation. To facilitate training on extensive datasets, such as ImageNet, we have constructed a substantial image-text dataset leveraging BLIP2. Furthermore, we delve into the significance of word positioning within CLIP for the purpose of caption guidance. Extensive experiments confirm VAR-CLIP's proficiency in generating fantasy images with high fidelity, textual congruence, and aesthetic excellence. Our project page are https://github.com/daixiangzi/VAR-CLIP

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling has gained popularity for its shift towards next-scale prediction. However, existing VAR paradigms process the entire token map at each scale step, leading to the complexity and runtime scaling dramatically with image resolution. To address this challenge, we propose FastVAR, a post-training acceleration method for efficient resolution scaling with VARs. Our key finding is that the majority of latency arises from the large-scale step where most tokens have already converged. Leveraging this observation, we develop the cached token pruning strategy that only forwards pivotal tokens for scale-specific modeling while using cached tokens from previous scale steps to restore the pruned slots. This significantly reduces the number of forwarded tokens and improves the efficiency at larger resolutions. Experiments show the proposed FastVAR can further speedup FlashAttention-accelerated VAR by 2.7times with negligible performance drop of <1%. We further extend FastVAR to zero-shot generation of higher resolution images. In particular, FastVAR can generate one 2K image with 15GB memory footprints in 1.5s on a single NVIDIA 3090 GPU. Code is available at https://github.com/csguoh/FastVAR.

In recent years, image synthesis has achieved remarkable advancements, enabling diverse applications in content creation, virtual reality, and beyond. We introduce a novel approach to image generation using Auto-Regressive (AR) modeling, which leverages a next-detail prediction strategy for enhanced fidelity and scalability. While AR models have achieved transformative success in language modeling, replicating this success in vision tasks has presented unique challenges due to the inherent spatial dependencies in images. Our proposed method addresses these challenges by iteratively adding finer details to an image compositionally, constructing it as a hierarchical combination of base and detail image factors. This strategy is shown to be more effective than the conventional next-token prediction and even surpasses the state-of-the-art next-scale prediction approaches. A key advantage of this method is its scalability to higher resolutions without requiring full model retraining, making it a versatile solution for high-resolution image generation.

Executing language-conditioned tasks in dynamic visual environments remains a central challenge in embodied AI. Existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models predominantly adopt reactive state-to-action mappings, often leading to short-sighted behaviors and poor robustness in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we introduce F1, a pretrained VLA framework which integrates the visual foresight generation into decision-making pipeline. F1 adopts a Mixture-of-Transformer architecture with dedicated modules for perception, foresight generation, and control, thereby bridging understanding, generation, and actions. At its core, F1 employs a next-scale prediction mechanism to synthesize goal-conditioned visual foresight as explicit planning targets. By forecasting plausible future visual states, F1 reformulates action generation as a foresight-guided inverse dynamics problem, enabling actions that implicitly achieve visual goals. To endow F1 with robust and generalizable capabilities, we propose a three-stage training recipe on an extensive dataset comprising over 330k trajectories across 136 diverse tasks. This training scheme enhances modular reasoning and equips the model with transferable visual foresight, which is critical for complex and dynamic environments. Extensive evaluations on real-world tasks and simulation benchmarks demonstrate F1 consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving substantial gains in both task success rate and generalization ability.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional multi-step autoregressive (AR) and diffusion models. However, despite their efficiency, VAR models often suffer from the diversity collapse i.e., a reduction in output variability, analogous to that observed in few-step distilled diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce DiverseVAR, a simple yet effective approach that restores the generative diversity of VAR models without requiring any additional training. Our analysis reveals the pivotal component of the feature map as a key factor governing diversity formation at early scales. By suppressing the pivotal component in the model input and amplifying it in the model output, DiverseVAR effectively unlocks the inherent generative potential of VAR models while preserving high-fidelity synthesis. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances generative diversity with only neglectable performance influences. Our code will be publicly released at https://github.com/wangtong627/DiverseVAR.

We propose a novel AutoRegressive Generation-based paradigm for image Segmentation (ARGenSeg), achieving multimodal understanding and pixel-level perception within a unified framework. Prior works integrating image segmentation into multimodal large language models (MLLMs) typically employ either boundary points representation or dedicated segmentation heads. These methods rely on discrete representations or semantic prompts fed into task-specific decoders, which limits the ability of the MLLM to capture fine-grained visual details. To address these challenges, we introduce a segmentation framework for MLLM based on image generation, which naturally produces dense masks for target objects. We leverage MLLM to output visual tokens and detokenize them into images using an universal VQ-VAE, making the segmentation fully dependent on the pixel-level understanding of the MLLM. To reduce inference latency, we employ a next-scale-prediction strategy to generate required visual tokens in parallel. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method surpasses prior state-of-the-art approaches on multiple segmentation datasets with a remarkable boost in inference speed, while maintaining strong understanding capabilities.

Disentangling content and style from a single image, known as content-style decomposition (CSD), enables recontextualization of extracted content and stylization of extracted styles, offering greater creative flexibility in visual synthesis. While recent personalization methods have explored the decomposition of explicit content style, they remain tailored for diffusion models. Meanwhile, Visual Autoregressive Modeling (VAR) has emerged as a promising alternative with a next-scale prediction paradigm, achieving performance comparable to that of diffusion models. In this paper, we explore VAR as a generative framework for CSD, leveraging its scale-wise generation process for improved disentanglement. To this end, we propose CSD-VAR, a novel method that introduces three key innovations: (1) a scale-aware alternating optimization strategy that aligns content and style representation with their respective scales to enhance separation, (2) an SVD-based rectification method to mitigate content leakage into style representations, and (3) an Augmented Key-Value (K-V) memory enhancing content identity preservation. To benchmark this task, we introduce CSD-100, a dataset specifically designed for content-style decomposition, featuring diverse subjects rendered in various artistic styles. Experiments demonstrate that CSD-VAR outperforms prior approaches, achieving superior content preservation and stylization fidelity.

We present NextFlow, a unified decoder-only autoregressive transformer trained on 6 trillion interleaved text-image discrete tokens. By leveraging a unified vision representation within a unified autoregressive architecture, NextFlow natively activates multimodal understanding and generation capabilities, unlocking abilities of image editing, interleaved content and video generation. Motivated by the distinct nature of modalities - where text is strictly sequential and images are inherently hierarchical - we retain next-token prediction for text but adopt next-scale prediction for visual generation. This departs from traditional raster-scan methods, enabling the generation of 1024x1024 images in just 5 seconds - orders of magnitude faster than comparable AR models. We address the instabilities of multi-scale generation through a robust training recipe. Furthermore, we introduce a prefix-tuning strategy for reinforcement learning. Experiments demonstrate that NextFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance among unified models and rivals specialized diffusion baselines in visual quality.

We present protein autoregressive modeling (PAR), the first multi-scale autoregressive framework for protein backbone generation via coarse-to-fine next-scale prediction. Using the hierarchical nature of proteins, PAR generates structures that mimic sculpting a statue, forming a coarse topology and refining structural details over scales. To achieve this, PAR consists of three key components: (i) multi-scale downsampling operations that represent protein structures across multiple scales during training; (ii) an autoregressive transformer that encodes multi-scale information and produces conditional embeddings to guide structure generation; (iii) a flow-based backbone decoder that generates backbone atoms conditioned on these embeddings. Moreover, autoregressive models suffer from exposure bias, caused by the training and the generation procedure mismatch, and substantially degrades structure generation quality. We effectively alleviate this issue by adopting noisy context learning and scheduled sampling, enabling robust backbone generation. Notably, PAR exhibits strong zero-shot generalization, supporting flexible human-prompted conditional generation and motif scaffolding without requiring fine-tuning. On the unconditional generation benchmark, PAR effectively learns protein distributions and produces backbones of high design quality, and exhibits favorable scaling behavior. Together, these properties establish PAR as a promising framework for protein structure generation.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

In the rapidly advancing field of image generation, Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) modeling has garnered considerable attention for its innovative next-scale prediction approach. This paradigm offers substantial improvements in efficiency, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. Yet, the inherently coarse-to-fine nature of VAR introduces a prolonged token sequence, leading to prohibitive memory consumption and computational redundancies. To address these bottlenecks, we propose Collaborative Decoding (CoDe), a novel efficient decoding strategy tailored for the VAR framework. CoDe capitalizes on two critical observations: the substantially reduced parameter demands at larger scales and the exclusive generation patterns across different scales. Based on these insights, we partition the multi-scale inference process into a seamless collaboration between a large model and a small model. The large model serves as the 'drafter', specializing in generating low-frequency content at smaller scales, while the smaller model serves as the 'refiner', solely focusing on predicting high-frequency details at larger scales. This collaboration yields remarkable efficiency with minimal impact on quality: CoDe achieves a 1.7x speedup, slashes memory usage by around 50%, and preserves image quality with only a negligible FID increase from 1.95 to 1.98. When drafting steps are further decreased, CoDe can achieve an impressive 2.9x acceleration ratio, reaching 41 images/s at 256x256 resolution on a single NVIDIA 4090 GPU, while preserving a commendable FID of 2.27. The code is available at https://github.com/czg1225/CoDe

Recent advances in diffusion models have brought remarkable visual fidelity to instruction-guided image editing. However, their global denoising process inherently entangles the edited region with the entire image context, leading to unintended spurious modifications and compromised adherence to editing instructions. In contrast, autoregressive models offer a distinct paradigm by formulating image synthesis as a sequential process over discrete visual tokens. Their causal and compositional mechanism naturally circumvents the adherence challenges of diffusion-based methods. In this paper, we present VAREdit, a visual autoregressive (VAR) framework that reframes image editing as a next-scale prediction problem. Conditioned on source image features and text instructions, VAREdit generates multi-scale target features to achieve precise edits. A core challenge in this paradigm is how to effectively condition the source image tokens. We observe that finest-scale source features cannot effectively guide the prediction of coarser target features. To bridge this gap, we introduce a Scale-Aligned Reference (SAR) module, which injects scale-matched conditioning information into the first self-attention layer. VAREdit demonstrates significant advancements in both editing adherence and efficiency. On standard benchmarks, it outperforms leading diffusion-based methods by 30\%+ higher GPT-Balance score. Moreover, it completes a 512times512 editing in 1.2 seconds, making it 2.2times faster than the similarly sized UltraEdit. The models are available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/VAREdit.

Generative models trained on extensive high-quality datasets effectively capture the structural and statistical properties of clean images, rendering them powerful priors for transforming degraded features into clean ones in image restoration. VAR, a novel image generative paradigm, surpasses diffusion models in generation quality by applying a next-scale prediction approach. It progressively captures both global structures and fine-grained details through the autoregressive process, consistent with the multi-scale restoration principle widely acknowledged in the restoration community. Furthermore, we observe that during the image reconstruction process utilizing VAR, scale predictions automatically modulate the input, facilitating the alignment of representations at subsequent scales with the distribution of clean images. To harness VAR's adaptive distribution alignment capability in image restoration tasks, we formulate the multi-scale latent representations within VAR as the restoration prior, thus advancing our delicately designed VarFormer framework. The strategic application of these priors enables our VarFormer to achieve remarkable generalization on unseen tasks while also reducing training computational costs. Extensive experiments underscores that our VarFormer outperforms existing multi-task image restoration methods across various restoration tasks.

Recent advances in video generation have been dominated by diffusion and flow-matching models, which produce high-quality results but remain computationally intensive and difficult to scale. In this work, we introduce VideoAR, the first large-scale Visual Autoregressive (VAR) framework for video generation that combines multi-scale next-frame prediction with autoregressive modeling. VideoAR disentangles spatial and temporal dependencies by integrating intra-frame VAR modeling with causal next-frame prediction, supported by a 3D multi-scale tokenizer that efficiently encodes spatio-temporal dynamics. To improve long-term consistency, we propose Multi-scale Temporal RoPE, Cross-Frame Error Correction, and Random Frame Mask, which collectively mitigate error propagation and stabilize temporal coherence. Our multi-stage pretraining pipeline progressively aligns spatial and temporal learning across increasing resolutions and durations. Empirically, VideoAR achieves new state-of-the-art results among autoregressive models, improving FVD on UCF-101 from 99.5 to 88.6 while reducing inference steps by over 10x, and reaching a VBench score of 81.74-competitive with diffusion-based models an order of magnitude larger. These results demonstrate that VideoAR narrows the performance gap between autoregressive and diffusion paradigms, offering a scalable, efficient, and temporally consistent foundation for future video generation research.

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference latency, and difficulties of integration with large language models (LLMs) have necessitated exploring alternatives to DMs. This paper introduces ControlVAR, a novel framework that explores pixel-level controls in visual autoregressive (VAR) modeling for flexible and efficient conditional generation. In contrast to traditional conditional models that learn the conditional distribution, ControlVAR jointly models the distribution of image and pixel-level conditions during training and imposes conditional controls during testing. To enhance the joint modeling, we adopt the next-scale AR prediction paradigm and unify control and image representations. A teacher-forcing guidance strategy is proposed to further facilitate controllable generation with joint modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior efficacy and flexibility of ControlVAR across various conditional generation tasks against popular conditional DMs, \eg, ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ControlVAR.

In robotic visuomotor policy learning, diffusion-based models have achieved significant success in improving the accuracy of action trajectory generation compared to traditional autoregressive models. However, they suffer from inefficiency due to multiple denoising steps and limited flexibility from complex constraints. In this paper, we introduce Coarse-to-Fine AutoRegressive Policy (CARP), a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that redefines the autoregressive action generation process as a coarse-to-fine, next-scale approach. CARP decouples action generation into two stages: first, an action autoencoder learns multi-scale representations of the entire action sequence; then, a GPT-style transformer refines the sequence prediction through a coarse-to-fine autoregressive process. This straightforward and intuitive approach produces highly accurate and smooth actions, matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion-based policies while maintaining efficiency on par with autoregressive policies. We conduct extensive evaluations across diverse settings, including single-task and multi-task scenarios on state-based and image-based simulation benchmarks, as well as real-world tasks. CARP achieves competitive success rates, with up to a 10% improvement, and delivers 10x faster inference compared to state-of-the-art policies, establishing a high-performance, efficient, and flexible paradigm for action generation in robotic tasks.

In this work, we present VARGPT-v1.1, an advanced unified visual autoregressive model that builds upon our previous framework VARGPT. The model preserves the dual paradigm of next-token prediction for visual understanding and next-scale generation for image synthesis. Specifically, VARGPT-v1.1 integrates: (1) a novel training strategy combining iterative visual instruction tuning with reinforcement learning through Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), (2) an expanded training corpus containing 8.3M visual-generative instruction pairs, (3) an upgraded language model backbone using Qwen2, (4) enhanced image generation resolution, and (5) emergent image editing capabilities without architectural modifications. These advancements enable VARGPT-v1.1 to achieve state-of-the-art performance in multimodal understanding and text-to-image instruction-following tasks, demonstrating significant improvements in both comprehension and generation metrics. Notably, through visual instruction tuning, the model acquires image editing functionality while maintaining architectural consistency with its predecessor, revealing the potential for unified visual understanding, generation, and editing. Our findings suggest that well-designed unified visual autoregressive models can effectively adopt flexible training strategies from large language models (LLMs), exhibiting promising scalability. The codebase and model weights are publicly available at https://github.com/VARGPT-family/VARGPT-v1.1.

We present Connection-Aware Motif Sequencing (CamS), a graph-to-sequence representation that enables decoder-only Transformers to learn molecular graphs via standard next-token prediction (NTP). For molecular property prediction, SMILES-based NTP scales well but lacks explicit topology, whereas graph-native masked modeling captures connectivity but risks disrupting the pivotal chemical details (e.g., activity cliffs). CamS bridges this gap by serializing molecular graphs into structure-rich causal sequences. CamS first mines data-driven connection-aware motifs. It then serializes motifs via scaffold-rooted breadth-first search (BFS) to establish a stable core-to-periphery order. Crucially, CamS enables hierarchical modeling by concatenating sequences from fine to coarse motif scales, allowing the model to condition global scaffolds on dense, uncorrupted local structural evidence. We instantiate CamS-LLaMA by pre-training a vanilla LLaMA backbone on CamS sequences. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on MoleculeNet and the activity-cliff benchmark MoleculeACE, outperforming both SMILES-based language models and strong graph baselines. Interpretability analysis confirms that our multi-scale causal serialization effectively drives attention toward cliff-determining differences.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

Recent advances in pretraining general foundation models have significantly improved performance across diverse downstream tasks. While autoregressive (AR) generative models like GPT have revolutionized NLP, most visual generative pretraining methods still rely on BERT-style masked modeling, which often disregards the temporal information essential for video analysis. The few existing autoregressive visual pretraining methods suffer from issues such as inaccurate semantic localization and poor generation quality, leading to poor semantics. In this work, we propose NExT-Vid, a novel autoregressive visual generative pretraining framework that utilizes masked next-frame prediction to jointly model images and videos. NExT-Vid introduces a context-isolated autoregressive predictor to decouple semantic representation from target decoding, and a conditioned flow-matching decoder to enhance generation quality and diversity. Through context-isolated flow-matching pretraining, our approach achieves strong representations. Extensive experiments on large-scale pretrained models demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms previous generative pretraining methods for visual representation learning via attentive probing in downstream classification.

We introduce SessionRec, a novel next-session prediction paradigm (NSPP) for generative sequential recommendation, addressing the fundamental misalignment between conventional next-item prediction paradigm (NIPP) and real-world recommendation scenarios. Unlike NIPP's item-level autoregressive generation that contradicts actual session-based user interactions, our framework introduces a session-aware representation learning through hierarchical sequence aggregation (intra/inter-session), reducing attention computation complexity while enabling implicit modeling of massive negative interactions, and a session-based prediction objective that better captures users' diverse interests through multi-item recommendation in next sessions. Moreover, we found that incorporating a rank loss for items within the session under the next session prediction paradigm can significantly improve the ranking effectiveness of generative sequence recommendation models. We also verified that SessionRec exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs. Extensive experiments conducted on public datasets and online A/B test in Meituan App demonstrate the effectiveness of SessionRec. The proposed paradigm establishes new foundations for developing industrial-scale generative recommendation systems through its model-agnostic architecture and computational efficiency.

Object detection has long been dominated by traditional coordinate regression-based models, such as YOLO, DETR, and Grounding DINO. Although recent efforts have attempted to leverage MLLMs to tackle this task, they face challenges like low recall rate, duplicate predictions, coordinate misalignment, etc. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose Rex-Omni, a 3B-scale MLLM that achieves state-of-the-art object perception performance. On benchmarks like COCO and LVIS, Rex-Omni attains performance comparable to or exceeding regression-based models (e.g., DINO, Grounding DINO) in a zero-shot setting. This is enabled by three key designs: 1) Task Formulation: we use special tokens to represent quantized coordinates from 0 to 999, reducing the model's learning difficulty and improving token efficiency for coordinate prediction; 2) Data Engines: we construct multiple data engines to generate high-quality grounding, referring, and pointing data, providing semantically rich supervision for training; \3) Training Pipelines: we employ a two-stage training process, combining supervised fine-tuning on 22 million data with GRPO-based reinforcement post-training. This RL post-training leverages geometry-aware rewards to effectively bridge the discrete-to-continuous coordinate prediction gap, improve box accuracy, and mitigate undesirable behaviors like duplicate predictions that stem from the teacher-guided nature of the initial SFT stage. Beyond conventional detection, Rex-Omni's inherent language understanding enables versatile capabilities such as object referring, pointing, visual prompting, GUI grounding, spatial referring, OCR and key-pointing, all systematically evaluated on dedicated benchmarks. We believe that Rex-Omni paves the way for more versatile and language-aware visual perception systems.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Recent unified models for joint understanding and generation have significantly advanced visual generation capabilities. However, their focus on conventional tasks like text-to-video generation has left the temporal reasoning potential of unified models largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Next Scene Prediction (NSP), a new task that pushes unified video models toward temporal and causal reasoning. Unlike text-to-video generation, NSP requires predicting plausible futures from preceding context, demanding deeper understanding and reasoning. To tackle this task, we propose a unified framework combining Qwen-VL for comprehension and LTX for synthesis, bridged by a latent query embedding and a connector module. This model is trained in three stages on our newly curated, large-scale NSP dataset: text-to-video pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning (via GRPO) with our proposed causal consistency reward. Experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on our benchmark, advancing the capability of generalist multimodal systems to anticipate what happens next.

Autoregressive next-token prediction is a standard pretraining method for large-scale language models, but its application to vision tasks is hindered by the non-sequential nature of image data, leading to cumulative errors. Most vision models employ masked autoencoder (MAE) based pretraining, which faces scalability issues. To address these challenges, we introduce TokenUnify, a novel pretraining method that integrates random token prediction, next-token prediction, and next-all token prediction. We provide theoretical evidence demonstrating that TokenUnify mitigates cumulative errors in visual autoregression. Cooperated with TokenUnify, we have assembled a large-scale electron microscopy (EM) image dataset with ultra-high resolution, ideal for creating spatially correlated long sequences. This dataset includes over 120 million annotated voxels, making it the largest neuron segmentation dataset to date and providing a unified benchmark for experimental validation. Leveraging the Mamba network inherently suited for long-sequence modeling on this dataset, TokenUnify not only reduces the computational complexity but also leads to a significant 45\% improvement in segmentation performance on downstream EM neuron segmentation tasks compared to existing methods. Furthermore, TokenUnify demonstrates superior scalability over MAE and traditional autoregressive methods, effectively bridging the gap between pretraining strategies for language and vision models. Code is available at https://github.com/ydchen0806/TokenUnify.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

Nonverbal communication is integral to human interaction, with gestures, facial expressions, and body language conveying critical aspects of intent and emotion. However, existing large language models (LLMs) fail to effectively incorporate these nonverbal elements, limiting their capacity to create fully immersive conversational experiences. We introduce MARS, a multimodal language model designed to understand and generate nonverbal cues alongside text, bridging this gap in conversational AI. Our key innovation is VENUS, a large-scale dataset comprising annotated videos with time-aligned text, facial expressions, and body language. Leveraging VENUS, we train MARS with a next-token prediction objective, combining text with vector-quantized nonverbal representations to achieve multimodal understanding and generation within a unified framework. Based on various analyses of the VENUS datasets, we validate its substantial scale and high effectiveness. Our quantitative and qualitative results demonstrate that MARS successfully generates text and nonverbal languages, corresponding to conversational input.

In-context learning (ICL) -- the capacity of a model to infer and apply abstract patterns from examples provided within its input -- has been extensively studied in large language models trained for next-token prediction on human text. In fact, prior work often attributes this emergent behavior to distinctive statistical properties in human language. This raises a fundamental question: can ICL arise organically in other sequence domains purely through large-scale predictive training? To explore this, we turn to genomic sequences, an alternative symbolic domain rich in statistical structure. Specifically, we study the Evo2 genomic model, trained predominantly on next-nucleotide (A/T/C/G) prediction, at a scale comparable to mid-sized LLMs. We develop a controlled experimental framework comprising symbolic reasoning tasks instantiated in both linguistic and genomic forms, enabling direct comparison of ICL across genomic and linguistic models. Our results show that genomic models, like their linguistic counterparts, exhibit log-linear gains in pattern induction as the number of in-context demonstrations increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evidence of organically emergent ICL in genomic sequences, supporting the hypothesis that ICL arises as a consequence of large-scale predictive modeling over rich data. These findings extend emergent meta-learning beyond language, pointing toward a unified, modality-agnostic view of in-context learning.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

In recent years, foundational models have revolutionized the fields of language and vision, demonstrating remarkable abilities in understanding and generating complex data; however, similar advances in user behavior modeling have been limited, largely due to the complexity of behavioral data and the challenges involved in capturing intricate temporal and contextual relationships in user activities. To address this, we propose BehaveGPT, a foundational model designed specifically for large-scale user behavior prediction. Leveraging transformer-based architecture and a novel pretraining paradigm, BehaveGPT is trained on vast user behavior datasets, allowing it to learn complex behavior patterns and support a range of downstream tasks, including next behavior prediction, long-term generation, and cross-domain adaptation. Our approach introduces the DRO-based pretraining paradigm tailored for user behavior data, which improves model generalization and transferability by equitably modeling both head and tail behaviors. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that BehaveGPT outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving more than a 10% improvement in macro and weighted recall, showcasing its ability to effectively capture and predict user behavior. Furthermore, we measure the scaling law in the user behavior domain for the first time on the Honor dataset, providing insights into how model performance scales with increased data and parameter sizes.

We present GrasMolmo, a generalizable open-vocabulary task-oriented grasping (TOG) model. GraspMolmo predicts semantically appropriate, stable grasps conditioned on a natural language instruction and a single RGB-D frame. For instance, given "pour me some tea", GraspMolmo selects a grasp on a teapot handle rather than its body. Unlike prior TOG methods, which are limited by small datasets, simplistic language, and uncluttered scenes, GraspMolmo learns from PRISM, a novel large-scale synthetic dataset of 379k samples featuring cluttered environments and diverse, realistic task descriptions. We fine-tune the Molmo visual-language model on this data, enabling GraspMolmo to generalize to novel open-vocabulary instructions and objects. In challenging real-world evaluations, GraspMolmo achieves state-of-the-art results, with a 70% prediction success on complex tasks, compared to the 35% achieved by the next best alternative. GraspMolmo also successfully demonstrates the ability to predict semantically correct bimanual grasps zero-shot. We release our synthetic dataset, code, model, and benchmarks to accelerate research in task-semantic robotic manipulation, which, along with videos, are available at https://abhaybd.github.io/GraspMolmo/.

Prevailing autoregressive (AR) models for text-to-image generation either rely on heavy, computationally-intensive diffusion models to process continuous image tokens, or employ vector quantization (VQ) to obtain discrete tokens with quantization loss. In this paper, we push the autoregressive paradigm forward with NextStep-1, a 14B autoregressive model paired with a 157M flow matching head, training on discrete text tokens and continuous image tokens with next-token prediction objectives. NextStep-1 achieves state-of-the-art performance for autoregressive models in text-to-image generation tasks, exhibiting strong capabilities in high-fidelity image synthesis. Furthermore, our method shows strong performance in image editing, highlighting the power and versatility of our unified approach. To facilitate open research, we will release our code and models to the community.

Autoregressive transformers have revolutionized generative models in language processing and shown substantial promise in image and video generation. However, these models face significant challenges when extended to 3D generation tasks due to their reliance on next-token prediction to learn token sequences, which is incompatible with the unordered nature of 3D data. Instead of imposing an artificial order on 3D data, in this paper, we introduce G3PT, a scalable coarse-to-fine 3D generative model utilizing a cross-scale querying transformer. The key is to map point-based 3D data into discrete tokens with different levels of detail, naturally establishing a sequential relationship between different levels suitable for autoregressive modeling. Additionally, the cross-scale querying transformer connects tokens globally across different levels of detail without requiring an ordered sequence. Benefiting from this approach, G3PT features a versatile 3D generation pipeline that effortlessly supports diverse conditional structures, enabling the generation of 3D shapes from various types of conditions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that G3PT achieves superior generation quality and generalization ability compared to previous 3D generation methods. Most importantly, for the first time in 3D generation, scaling up G3PT reveals distinct power-law scaling behaviors.

Large-scale autoregressive models pretrained on next-token prediction and finetuned with reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved unprecedented success on many problem domains. During RL, these models explore by generating new outputs, one token at a time. However, sampling actions token-by-token can result in highly inefficient learning, particularly when rewards are sparse. Here, we show that it is possible to overcome this problem by acting and exploring within the internal representations of an autoregressive model. Specifically, to discover temporally-abstract actions, we introduce a higher-order, non-causal sequence model whose outputs control the residual stream activations of a base autoregressive model. On grid world and MuJoCo-based tasks with hierarchical structure, we find that the higher-order model learns to compress long activation sequence chunks onto internal controllers. Critically, each controller executes a sequence of behaviorally meaningful actions that unfold over long timescales and are accompanied with a learned termination condition, such that composing multiple controllers over time leads to efficient exploration on novel tasks. We show that direct internal controller reinforcement, a process we term "internal RL", enables learning from sparse rewards in cases where standard RL finetuning fails. Our results demonstrate the benefits of latent action generation and reinforcement in autoregressive models, suggesting internal RL as a promising avenue for realizing hierarchical RL within foundation models.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

The remarkable success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has extended to the multimodal domain, achieving outstanding performance in image understanding and generation. Recent efforts to develop unified Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) that integrate these capabilities have shown promising results. However, existing approaches often involve complex designs in model architecture or training pipeline, increasing the difficulty of model training and scaling. In this paper, we propose SynerGen-VL, a simple yet powerful encoder-free MLLM capable of both image understanding and generation. To address challenges identified in existing encoder-free unified MLLMs, we introduce the token folding mechanism and the vision-expert-based progressive alignment pretraining strategy, which effectively support high-resolution image understanding while reducing training complexity. After being trained on large-scale mixed image-text data with a unified next-token prediction objective, SynerGen-VL achieves or surpasses the performance of existing encoder-free unified MLLMs with comparable or smaller parameter sizes, and narrows the gap with task-specific state-of-the-art models, highlighting a promising path toward future unified MLLMs. Our code and models shall be released.

Medical triage is the task of allocating medical resources and prioritizing patients based on medical need. This paper introduces the first large-scale public dataset for studying medical triage in the context of asynchronous outpatient portal messages. Our novel task formulation views patient message triage as a pairwise inference problem, where we train LLMs to choose `"which message is more medically urgent" in a head-to-head tournament-style re-sort of a physician's inbox. Our novel benchmark PMR-Bench contains 1569 unique messages and 2,000+ high-quality test pairs for pairwise medical urgency assessment alongside a scalable training data generation pipeline. PMR-Bench includes samples that contain both unstructured patient-written messages alongside real electronic health record (EHR) data, emulating a real-world medical triage scenario. We develop a novel automated data annotation strategy to provide LLMs with in-domain guidance on this task. The resulting data is used to train two model classes, UrgentReward and UrgentSFT, leveraging Bradley-Terry and next token prediction objective, respectively to perform pairwise urgency classification. We find that UrgentSFT achieves top performance on PMR-Bench, with UrgentReward showing distinct advantages in low-resource settings. For example, UrgentSFT-8B and UrgentReward-8B provide a 15- and 16-point boost, respectively, on inbox sorting metrics over off-the-shelf 8B models. Paper resources can be found at https://tinyurl.com/Patient-Message-Triage

Large language models (LLMs) have progressed rapidly; however, most state-of-the-art models are trained and evaluated primarily in high-resource languages such as English and Chinese, and are often developed by a small number of organizations with access to large-scale compute and data. This gatekeeping creates a practical barrier for sovereign settings in which a regional- or national-scale institution or domain owner must retain control and understanding of model weights, training data, and deployment while operating under limited resources and strict transparency constraints. To this end, we identify two core requirements: (1) adoptability, the ability to transform a base model into a general-purpose assistant, and (2) sovereign capability, the ability to perform high-stakes, region-specific tasks (e.g., legal reasoning in local languages and cultural knowledge). We investigate whether these requirements can be achieved without scaling massive instruction corpora or relying on complex preference tuning pipelines and large-scale reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT). We present Typhoon S, a minimal and open post-training recipe that combines supervised fine-tuning, on-policy distillation, and small-scale RFT. Using Thai as a representative case study, we demonstrate that our approach transforms both sovereign-adapted and general-purpose base models into instruction-tuned models with strong general performance. We further show that small-scale RFT with InK-GRPO -- an extension of GRPO that augments the GRPO loss with a next-word prediction loss -- improves Thai legal reasoning and Thai-specific knowledge while preserving general capabilities. Our results suggest that a carefully designed post-training strategy can reduce the required scale of instruction data and computation, providing a practical path toward high-quality sovereign LLMs under academic-scale resources.

We introduce Virtual Width Networks (VWN), a framework that delivers the benefits of wider representations without incurring the quadratic cost of increasing the hidden size. VWN decouples representational width from backbone width, expanding the embedding space while keeping backbone compute nearly constant. In our large-scale experiment, an 8-times expansion accelerates optimization by over 2 times for next-token and 3 times for next-2-token prediction. The advantage amplifies over training as both the loss gap grows and the convergence-speedup ratio increases, showing that VWN is not only token-efficient but also increasingly effective with scale. Moreover, we identify an approximately log-linear scaling relation between virtual width and loss reduction, offering an initial empirical basis and motivation for exploring virtual-width scaling as a new dimension of large-model efficiency.

Both text and video data are abundant on the internet and support large-scale self-supervised learning through next token or frame prediction. However, they have not been equally leveraged: language models have had significant real-world impact, whereas video generation has remained largely limited to media entertainment. Yet video data captures important information about the physical world that is difficult to express in language. To address this gap, we discuss an under-appreciated opportunity to extend video generation to solve tasks in the real world. We observe how, akin to language, video can serve as a unified interface that can absorb internet knowledge and represent diverse tasks. Moreover, we demonstrate how, like language models, video generation can serve as planners, agents, compute engines, and environment simulators through techniques such as in-context learning, planning and reinforcement learning. We identify major impact opportunities in domains such as robotics, self-driving, and science, supported by recent work that demonstrates how such advanced capabilities in video generation are plausibly within reach. Lastly, we identify key challenges in video generation that mitigate progress. Addressing these challenges will enable video generation models to demonstrate unique value alongside language models in a wider array of AI applications.

In this work, we introduce Vision-Language Generative Pre-trained Transformer (VL-GPT), a transformer model proficient at concurrently perceiving and generating visual and linguistic data. VL-GPT achieves a unified pre-training approach for both image and text modalities by employing a straightforward auto-regressive objective, thereby enabling the model to process image and text as seamlessly as a language model processes text. To accomplish this, we initially propose a novel image tokenizer-detokenizer framework for visual data, specifically designed to transform raw images into a sequence of continuous embeddings and reconstruct them accordingly. In combination with the existing text tokenizer and detokenizer, this framework allows for the encoding of interleaved image-text data into a multimodal sequence, which can subsequently be fed into the transformer model. Consequently, VL-GPT can perform large-scale pre-training on multimodal corpora utilizing a unified auto-regressive objective (i.e., next-token prediction). Upon completion of pre-training, VL-GPT exhibits remarkable zero-shot and few-shot performance across a diverse range of vision and language understanding and generation tasks, including image captioning, visual question answering, text-to-image generation, and more. Additionally, the pre-trained model retrains in-context learning capabilities when provided with multimodal prompts. We further conduct instruction tuning on our VL-GPT, highlighting its exceptional potential for multimodal assistance. The source code and model weights shall be released.

We introduce LegoGPT, the first approach for generating physically stable LEGO brick models from text prompts. To achieve this, we construct a large-scale, physically stable dataset of LEGO designs, along with their associated captions, and train an autoregressive large language model to predict the next brick to add via next-token prediction. To improve the stability of the resulting designs, we employ an efficient validity check and physics-aware rollback during autoregressive inference, which prunes infeasible token predictions using physics laws and assembly constraints. Our experiments show that LegoGPT produces stable, diverse, and aesthetically pleasing LEGO designs that align closely with the input text prompts. We also develop a text-based LEGO texturing method to generate colored and textured designs. We show that our designs can be assembled manually by humans and automatically by robotic arms. We also release our new dataset, StableText2Lego, containing over 47,000 LEGO structures of over 28,000 unique 3D objects accompanied by detailed captions, along with our code and models at the project website: https://avalovelace1.github.io/LegoGPT/.

Language models (LMs) have demonstrated the capability to handle a variety of generative tasks. This paper presents the UniAudio system, which, unlike prior task-specific approaches, leverages LMs techniques to generate multiple types of audio (including speech, sounds, music, and singing) with given input conditions. UniAudio 1) first tokenizes all types of target audio along with other condition modalities, 2) concatenates source-target pair as a single sequence, and 3) performs next-token prediction using LMs. Also, a multi-scale Transformer model is proposed to handle the overly long sequences caused by the residual vector quantization based neural codec in tokenization. Training of UniAudio is scaled up to 165K hours of audio and 1B parameters, based on all generative tasks, aiming to obtain sufficient prior knowledge not only in the intrinsic properties of audio but also the inter-relationship between audio and other modalities. Therefore, the trained UniAudio model has the potential to become a foundation model for universal audio generation: it shows strong capability in all trained tasks and can seamlessly support new audio generation tasks after simple fine-tuning. Experiments demonstrate that UniAudio achieves state-of-the-art or at least competitive results on most of the 11 tasks. Demo and code are released at https://github.com/yangdongchao/UniAudio

Humans interact with the environment using a combination of perception - transforming sensory inputs from their environment into symbols, and cognition - mapping symbols to knowledge about the environment for supporting abstraction, reasoning by analogy, and long-term planning. Human perception-inspired machine perception, in the context of AI, refers to large-scale pattern recognition from raw data using neural networks trained using self-supervised learning objectives such as next-word prediction or object recognition. On the other hand, machine cognition encompasses more complex computations, such as using knowledge of the environment to guide reasoning, analogy, and long-term planning. Humans can also control and explain their cognitive functions. This seems to require the retention of symbolic mappings from perception outputs to knowledge about their environment. For example, humans can follow and explain the guidelines and safety constraints driving their decision-making in safety-critical applications such as healthcare, criminal justice, and autonomous driving. This article introduces the rapidly emerging paradigm of Neurosymbolic AI combines neural networks and knowledge-guided symbolic approaches to create more capable and flexible AI systems. These systems have immense potential to advance both algorithm-level (e.g., abstraction, analogy, reasoning) and application-level (e.g., explainable and safety-constrained decision-making) capabilities of AI systems.

We present a large autoregressive model for source-space MEG that scales next-token prediction to long context across datasets and scanners: handling a corpus of over 500 hours and thousands of sessions across the three largest MEG datasets. A modified SEANet-style vector-quantizer reduces multichannel MEG into a flattened token stream on which we train a Qwen2.5-VL backbone from scratch to predict the next brain token and to recursively generate minutes of MEG from up to a minute of context. To evaluate long-horizon generation, we introduce three task-matched tests: (i) on-manifold stability via generated-only drift compared to the time-resolved distribution of real sliding windows, and (ii) conditional specificity via correct context versus prompt-swap controls using a neurophysiologically grounded metric set. We train on CamCAN and Omega and run all analyses on held-out MOUS, establishing cross-dataset generalization. Across metrics, generations remain relatively stable over long rollouts and are closer to the correct continuation than swapped controls. Code available at: https://github.com/ricsinaruto/brain-gen.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success across various fields, from large language models (LLMs) to large multimodal models (LMMs) and 2D content generation, moving closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI). Despite these advances, applying autoregressive approaches to 3D object generation and understanding remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces Scale AutoRegressive 3D (SAR3D), a novel framework that leverages a multi-scale 3D vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE) to tokenize 3D objects for efficient autoregressive generation and detailed understanding. By predicting the next scale in a multi-scale latent representation instead of the next single token, SAR3D reduces generation time significantly, achieving fast 3D object generation in just 0.82 seconds on an A6000 GPU. Additionally, given the tokens enriched with hierarchical 3D-aware information, we finetune a pretrained LLM on them, enabling multimodal comprehension of 3D content. Our experiments show that SAR3D surpasses current 3D generation methods in both speed and quality and allows LLMs to interpret and caption 3D models comprehensively.

The time complexity of the standard attention mechanism in a transformer scales quadratically with the length of the sequence. We introduce a method to reduce this to linear scaling with time, based on defining attention via latent vectors. The method is readily usable as a drop-in replacement for the standard attention mechanism. Our "Latte Transformer" model can be implemented for both bidirectional and unidirectional tasks, with the causal version allowing a recurrent implementation which is memory and time-efficient during inference of language generation tasks. Whilst next token prediction scales linearly with the sequence length for a standard transformer, a Latte Transformer requires constant time to compute the next token. The empirical performance of our method is comparable to standard attention, yet allows scaling to context windows much larger than practical in standard attention.

Large language models (LLMs) trained with next-word-prediction have achieved success as clinical foundation models. Representations from these language backbones yield strong linear probe performance across biomedical tasks, suggesting that patient semantics emerge from next-token prediction at scale. However, this paradigm treats patients as a document to be summarized rather than a dynamical system to be simulated; a patient's trajectory emerges from their state evolving under interventions and time, requiring models that simulate dynamics rather than predict tokens. To address this, we introduce SMB-Structure, a world model for structured EHR that grounds a joint-embedding prediction architecture (JEPA) with next-token prediction (SFT). SFT grounds our model to reconstruct future patient states in token space, while JEPA predicts those futures in latent space from the initial patient representation alone, forcing trajectory dynamics to be encoded before the next state is observed. We validate across two large-scale cohorts: Memorial Sloan Kettering (23,319 oncology patients; 323,000+ patient-years) and INSPECT (19,402 pulmonary embolism patients). Using a linear probe evaluated at multiple points along the disease trajectory, we demonstrate that our training paradigm learns embeddings that capture disease dynamics not recoverable by autoregressive baselines, enabling SMB-Structure to achieve competitive performance on complex tasks characterized by high patient heterogeneity. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/standardmodelbio/SMB-v1-1.7B-Structure.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) is prohibitively expensive, creating a critical scaling gap where insights from small-scale experiments often fail to transfer to resource-intensive production systems, thereby hindering efficient innovation. To bridge this, we introduce Farseer, a novel and refined scaling law offering enhanced predictive accuracy across scales. By systematically constructing a model loss surface L(N,D), Farseer achieves a significantly better fit to empirical data than prior laws (e.g., Chinchilla's law). Our methodology yields accurate, robust, and highly generalizable predictions, demonstrating excellent extrapolation capabilities, improving upon Chinchilla's law by reducing extrapolation error by 433\%. This allows for the reliable evaluation of competing training strategies across all (N,D) settings, enabling conclusions from small-scale ablation studies to be confidently extrapolated to predict large-scale performance. Furthermore, Farseer provides new insights into optimal compute allocation, better reflecting the nuanced demands of modern LLM training. To validate our approach, we trained an extensive suite of approximately 1,000 LLMs across diverse scales and configurations, consuming roughly 3 million NVIDIA H100 GPU hours. We are comprehensively open-sourcing all models, data, results, and logs at https://github.com/Farseer-Scaling-Law/Farseer to foster further research.

Next-Token Prediction (NTP) is a de facto approach for autoregressive (AR) video generation, but it suffers from suboptimal unidirectional dependencies and slow inference speed. In this work, we propose a semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) framework, called Next-Block Prediction (NBP), for video generation. By uniformly decomposing video content into equal-sized blocks (e.g., rows or frames), we shift the generation unit from individual tokens to blocks, allowing each token in the current block to simultaneously predict the corresponding token in the next block. Unlike traditional AR modeling, our framework employs bidirectional attention within each block, enabling tokens to capture more robust spatial dependencies. By predicting multiple tokens in parallel, NBP models significantly reduce the number of generation steps, leading to faster and more efficient inference. Our model achieves FVD scores of 103.3 on UCF101 and 25.5 on K600, outperforming the vanilla NTP model by an average of 4.4. Furthermore, thanks to the reduced number of inference steps, the NBP model generates 8.89 frames (128x128 resolution) per second, achieving an 11x speedup. We also explored model scales ranging from 700M to 3B parameters, observing significant improvements in generation quality, with FVD scores dropping from 103.3 to 55.3 on UCF101 and from 25.5 to 19.5 on K600, demonstrating the scalability of our approach.

Verifiers or reward models are often used to enhance the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). A common approach is the Best-of-N method, where N candidate solutions generated by the LLM are ranked by a verifier, and the best one is selected. While LLM-based verifiers are typically trained as discriminative classifiers to score solutions, they do not utilize the text generation capabilities of pretrained LLMs. To overcome this limitation, we instead propose training verifiers using the ubiquitous next-token prediction objective, jointly on verification and solution generation. Compared to standard verifiers, such generative verifiers (GenRM) can benefit from several advantages of LLMs: they integrate seamlessly with instruction tuning, enable chain-of-thought reasoning, and can utilize additional inference-time compute via majority voting for better verification. We demonstrate that when using Gemma-based verifiers on algorithmic and grade-school math reasoning tasks, GenRM outperforms discriminative verifiers and LLM-as-a-Judge, showing a 16-64% improvement in the percentage of problems solved with Best-of-N. Furthermore, we show that GenRM scales favorably across dataset size, model capacity, and inference-time compute.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Self-supervised pre-training based on next-token prediction has enabled large language models to capture the underlying structure of text, and has led to unprecedented performance on a large array of tasks when applied at scale. Similarly, autonomous driving generates vast amounts of spatiotemporal data, alluding to the possibility of harnessing scale to learn the underlying geometric and semantic structure of the environment and its evolution over time. In this direction, we propose a geometric and semantic self-supervised pre-training method, GASP, that learns a unified representation by predicting, at any queried future point in spacetime, (1) general occupancy, capturing the evolving structure of the 3D scene; (2) ego occupancy, modeling the ego vehicle path through the environment; and (3) distilled high-level features from a vision foundation model. By modeling geometric and semantic 4D occupancy fields instead of raw sensor measurements, the model learns a structured, generalizable representation of the environment and its evolution through time. We validate GASP on multiple autonomous driving benchmarks, demonstrating significant improvements in semantic occupancy forecasting, online mapping, and ego trajectory prediction. Our results demonstrate that continuous 4D geometric and semantic occupancy prediction provides a scalable and effective pre-training paradigm for autonomous driving. For code and additional visualizations, see \href{https://research.zenseact.com/publications/gasp/.

Foundation models have achieved remarkable success across video, image, and language domains. By scaling up the number of parameters and training datasets, these models acquire generalizable world knowledge and often surpass task-specific approaches. However, such progress has yet to extend to the domain of physics simulation. A primary bottleneck is data scarcity: while millions of images, videos, and textual resources are readily available on the internet, the largest physics simulation datasets contain only tens of thousands of samples. This data limitation hinders the use of large models, as overfitting becomes a major concern. As a result, physics applications typically rely on small models, which struggle with long-range prediction due to limited context understanding. Additionally, unlike images, videos, or text-which typically exhibit fixed granularity-physics datasets often vary drastically in scale, amplifying the challenges of scaling up multitask training. We introduce PhysiX, the first large-scale foundation model for physics simulation. PhysiX is a 4.5B parameter autoregressive generative model. It uses a discrete tokenizer to encode physical processes at different scales into a sequence of discrete tokens, and employs an autoregressive next-token prediction objective to model such processes in the token space. To mitigate the rounding error in the discretization process, PhysiX incorporates a specialized refinement module. Through extensive experiments, we show that PhysiX effectively addresses the data bottleneck, outperforming task-specific baselines under comparable settings as well as the previous absolute state-of-the-art approaches on The Well benchmark. Our results indicate that knowledge learned from natural videos can be successfully transferred to physics simulation, and that joint training across diverse simulation tasks enables synergistic learning.

In this work we introduce RITA: a suite of autoregressive generative models for protein sequences, with up to 1.2 billion parameters, trained on over 280 million protein sequences belonging to the UniRef-100 database. Such generative models hold the promise of greatly accelerating protein design. We conduct the first systematic study of how capabilities evolve with model size for autoregressive transformers in the protein domain: we evaluate RITA models in next amino acid prediction, zero-shot fitness, and enzyme function prediction, showing benefits from increased scale. We release the RITA models openly, to the benefit of the research community.

This paper investigates the scaling properties of autoregressive next-pixel prediction, a simple, end-to-end yet under-explored framework for unified vision models. Starting with images at resolutions of 32x32, we train a family of Transformers using IsoFlops profiles across compute budgets up to 7e19 FLOPs and evaluate three distinct target metrics: next-pixel prediction objective, ImageNet classification accuracy, and generation quality measured by Fr'echet Distance. First, optimal scaling strategy is critically task-dependent. At a fixed 32x32 resolution alone, the optimal scaling properties for image classification and image generation diverge, where generation optimal setup requires the data size grow three to five times faster than for the classification optimal setup. Second, as image resolution increases, the optimal scaling strategy indicates that the model size must grow much faster than data size. Surprisingly, by projecting our findings, we discover that the primary bottleneck is compute rather than the amount of training data. As compute continues to grow four to five times annually, we forecast the feasibility of pixel-by-pixel modeling of images within the next five years.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Given the variety of the visual world there is not one true scale for recognition: objects may appear at drastically different sizes across the visual field. Rather than enumerate variations across filter channels or pyramid levels, dynamic models locally predict scale and adapt receptive fields accordingly. The degree of variation and diversity of inputs makes this a difficult task. Existing methods either learn a feedforward predictor, which is not itself totally immune to the scale variation it is meant to counter, or select scales by a fixed algorithm, which cannot learn from the given task and data. We extend dynamic scale inference from feedforward prediction to iterative optimization for further adaptivity. We propose a novel entropy minimization objective for inference and optimize over task and structure parameters to tune the model to each input. Optimization during inference improves semantic segmentation accuracy and generalizes better to extreme scale variations that cause feedforward dynamic inference to falter.

The performance of time series forecasting has recently been greatly improved by the introduction of transformers. In this paper, we propose a general multi-scale framework that can be applied to the state-of-the-art transformer-based time series forecasting models (FEDformer, Autoformer, etc.). By iteratively refining a forecasted time series at multiple scales with shared weights, introducing architecture adaptations, and a specially-designed normalization scheme, we are able to achieve significant performance improvements, from 5.5% to 38.5% across datasets and transformer architectures, with minimal additional computational overhead. Via detailed ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of each of our contributions across the architecture and methodology. Furthermore, our experiments on various public datasets demonstrate that the proposed improvements outperform their corresponding baseline counterparts. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/scaleformer.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Ever since their conception, Transformers have taken over traditional sequence models in many tasks, such as NLP, image classification, and video/audio processing, for their fast training and superior performance. Much of the merit is attributable to positional encoding and multi-head attention. However, Transformers fall short in learning long-range dependencies mainly due to the quadratic complexity scaled with context length, in terms of both time and space. Consequently, over the past five years, a myriad of methods has been proposed to make Transformers more efficient. In this work, we first take a step back, study and compare existing solutions to long-sequence modeling in terms of their pure mathematical formulation. Specifically, we summarize them using a unified template, given their shared nature of token mixing. Through benchmarks, we then demonstrate that long context length does yield better performance, albeit application-dependent, and traditional Transformer models fall short in taking advantage of long-range dependencies. Next, inspired by emerging sparse models of huge capacity, we propose a machine learning system for handling million-scale dependencies. As a proof of concept, we evaluate the performance of one essential component of this system, namely, the distributed multi-head attention. We show that our algorithm can scale up attention computation by almost 40times using four GeForce RTX 4090 GPUs, compared to vanilla multi-head attention mechanism. We believe this study is an instrumental step towards modeling million-scale dependencies.

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

Over the past few years, the size of language models has grown exponentially, as has the computational cost to train these large models. This rapid growth has motivated researchers to develop new techniques aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the training process. Despite these advancements, optimally predicting the model size or allocating optimal resources remains a challenge. Several efforts have addressed the challenge by proposing different scaling laws, but almost all of them are architecture-specific (dense or sparse). In this work we revisit existing scaling laws and propose a generalized scaling law to provide a unified framework that is applicable to both dense and sparse large language models. We evaluate and compare our proposed scaling law with existing scaling laws to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Efficiently capturing the long-range patterns in sequential data sources salient to a given task -- such as classification and generative modeling -- poses a fundamental challenge. Popular approaches in the space tradeoff between the memory burden of brute-force enumeration and comparison, as in transformers, the computational burden of complicated sequential dependencies, as in recurrent neural networks, or the parameter burden of convolutional networks with many or large filters. We instead take inspiration from wavelet-based multiresolution analysis to define a new building block for sequence modeling, which we call a MultiresLayer. The key component of our model is the multiresolution convolution, capturing multiscale trends in the input sequence. Our MultiresConv can be implemented with shared filters across a dilated causal convolution tree. Thus it garners the computational advantages of convolutional networks and the principled theoretical motivation of wavelet decompositions. Our MultiresLayer is straightforward to implement, requires significantly fewer parameters, and maintains at most a O(Nlog N) memory footprint for a length N sequence. Yet, by stacking such layers, our model yields state-of-the-art performance on a number of sequence classification and autoregressive density estimation tasks using CIFAR-10, ListOps, and PTB-XL datasets.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have strong theoretical efficiency but are limited by fixed-length decoding and incompatibility with key-value (KV) caches. Block diffusion mitigates these issues, yet still enforces a fixed block size and requires expensive training. We introduce Next Sequence Prediction (NSP), which unifies next-token and next-block prediction, enabling the model to adaptively determine the generation length at each step. When the length is fixed to 1, NSP reduces to standard next-token prediction. Building on NSP, we propose Sequential Diffusion Language Model (SDLM), which can retrofit pre-trained autoregressive language models (ALMs) at minimal cost. Specifically, SDLM performs diffusion inference within fixed-size mask blocks, but dynamically decodes consecutive subsequences based on model confidence, thereby preserving KV-cache compatibility and improving robustness to varying uncertainty and semantics across the sequence. Experiments show that SDLM matches or surpasses strong autoregressive baselines using only 3.5M training samples, while achieving 2.1 higher throughput than Qwen-2.5. Notably, the SDLM-32B model delivers even more pronounced efficiency gains, demonstrating the strong scalability potential of our modeling paradigm. Project page and codes: https://github.com/OpenGVLab/SDLM

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Large-scale models pre-trained on large-scale datasets have profoundly advanced the development of deep learning. However, the state-of-the-art models for medical image segmentation are still small-scale, with their parameters only in the tens of millions. Further scaling them up to higher orders of magnitude is rarely explored. An overarching goal of exploring large-scale models is to train them on large-scale medical segmentation datasets for better transfer capacities. In this work, we design a series of Scalable and Transferable U-Net (STU-Net) models, with parameter sizes ranging from 14 million to 1.4 billion. Notably, the 1.4B STU-Net is the largest medical image segmentation model to date. Our STU-Net is based on nnU-Net framework due to its popularity and impressive performance. We first refine the default convolutional blocks in nnU-Net to make them scalable. Then, we empirically evaluate different scaling combinations of network depth and width, discovering that it is optimal to scale model depth and width together. We train our scalable STU-Net models on a large-scale TotalSegmentator dataset and find that increasing model size brings a stronger performance gain. This observation reveals that a large model is promising in medical image segmentation. Furthermore, we evaluate the transferability of our model on 14 downstream datasets for direct inference and 3 datasets for further fine-tuning, covering various modalities and segmentation targets. We observe good performance of our pre-trained model in both direct inference and fine-tuning. The code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/Ziyan-Huang/STU-Net.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Large language models have demonstrated predictable scaling behaviors with respect to model parameters and training data. This study investigates whether a similar scaling relationship exist for vision-language models with respect to the number of vision tokens. A mathematical framework is developed to characterize a relationship between vision token number and the expected divergence of distance between vision-referencing sequences. The theoretical analysis reveals two distinct scaling regimes: sublinear scaling for less vision tokens and linear scaling for more vision tokens. This aligns with model performance relationships of the form \(S(n) \approx c / n^{α(n)}\), where the scaling exponent relates to the correlation structure between vision token representations. Empirical validations across multiple vision-language benchmarks show that model performance matches the prediction from scaling relationship. The findings contribute to understanding vision token scaling in transformers through a theoretical framework that complements empirical observations.

Scaling up the size of vision models has been the de facto standard to obtain more powerful visual representations. In this work, we discuss the point beyond which larger vision models are not necessary. First, we demonstrate the power of Scaling on Scales (S^2), whereby a pre-trained and frozen smaller vision model (e.g., ViT-B or ViT-L), run over multiple image scales, can outperform larger models (e.g., ViT-H or ViT-G) on classification, segmentation, depth estimation, Multimodal LLM (MLLM) benchmarks, and robotic manipulation. Notably, S^2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in detailed understanding of MLLM on the V* benchmark, surpassing models such as GPT-4V. We examine the conditions under which S^2 is a preferred scaling approach compared to scaling on model size. While larger models have the advantage of better generalization on hard examples, we show that features of larger vision models can be well approximated by those of multi-scale smaller models. This suggests most, if not all, of the representations learned by current large pre-trained models can also be obtained from multi-scale smaller models. Our results show that a multi-scale smaller model has comparable learning capacity to a larger model, and pre-training smaller models with S^2 can match or even exceed the advantage of larger models. We release a Python package that can apply S^2 on any vision model with one line of code: https://github.com/bfshi/scaling_on_scales.

Work on scaling laws has found that large language models (LMs) show predictable improvements to overall loss with increased scale (model size, training data, and compute). Here, we present evidence for the claim that LMs may show inverse scaling, or worse task performance with increased scale, e.g., due to flaws in the training objective and data. We present empirical evidence of inverse scaling on 11 datasets collected by running a public contest, the Inverse Scaling Prize, with a substantial prize pool. Through analysis of the datasets, along with other examples found in the literature, we identify four potential causes of inverse scaling: (i) preference to repeat memorized sequences over following in-context instructions, (ii) imitation of undesirable patterns in the training data, (iii) tasks containing an easy distractor task which LMs could focus on, rather than the harder real task, and (iv) correct but misleading few-shot demonstrations of the task. We release the winning datasets at https://inversescaling.com/data to allow for further investigation of inverse scaling. Our tasks have helped drive the discovery of U-shaped and inverted-U scaling trends, where an initial trend reverses, suggesting that scaling trends are less reliable at predicting the behavior of larger-scale models than previously understood. Overall, our results suggest that there are tasks for which increased model scale alone may not lead to progress, and that more careful thought needs to go into the data and objectives for training language models.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

We introduce a novel sequential modeling approach which enables learning a Large Vision Model (LVM) without making use of any linguistic data. To do this, we define a common format, "visual sentences", in which we can represent raw images and videos as well as annotated data sources such as semantic segmentations and depth reconstructions without needing any meta-knowledge beyond the pixels. Once this wide variety of visual data (comprising 420 billion tokens) is represented as sequences, the model can be trained to minimize a cross-entropy loss for next token prediction. By training across various scales of model architecture and data diversity, we provide empirical evidence that our models scale effectively. Many different vision tasks can be solved by designing suitable visual prompts at test time.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a significant stride toward Artificial General Intelligence. As scaling laws underscore the potential of increasing model sizes, the academic community has intensified its investigations into LLMs with capacities exceeding 50 billion parameters. This technical report builds on our prior work with Tele-FLM (also known as FLM-2), a publicly available 52-billion-parameter model. We delve into two primary areas: we first discuss our observation of Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT) on Tele-FLM-52B, which supports the "less is more" approach for SFT data construction; second, we demonstrate our experiments and analyses on the best practices for progressively growing a model from 52 billion to 102 billion, and subsequently to 1 trillion parameters. We will open-source a 1T model checkpoint, namely Tele-FLM-1T, to advance further training and research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have ushered in a new wave of artificial intelligence advancements impacting every scientific field and discipline. They are trained on a simple objective: to predict the next token given the previous context. We live in a world where most of the data around us, e.g., text, audio, and music, has a multi-scale structure associated with it. This paper infuses LLMs with traditional signal processing ideas, namely wavelets, during pre-training to take advantage of the structure. Without adding any extra parameters to a GPT-style LLM architecture, we achieve the same pre-training performance almost twice as fast in text, raw audio, and symbolic music. This is achieved by imposing a structure on intermediate embeddings. When trained for the same number of training steps, we achieve significant gains in performance, which is comparable to pre-training a larger neural architecture. Our architecture allows every next token prediction access to intermediate embeddings at different temporal resolutions in every Transformer decoder block. This work will hopefully pave the way for incorporating multi-rate signal processing ideas into traditional LLM pre-training. Further, we showcase pushing model performance by improving internal structure instead of just going after scale.

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can be used to accelerate model development. In this work, we perform such an empirical investigation across a wide range of language understanding tasks, starting from models with as few as 10K parameters, and evaluate downstream performance across 9 language understanding tasks. We find that scaling laws emerge at finetuning time in some NLP tasks, and that they can also be exploited for debugging convergence when training large models. Moreover, for tasks where scaling laws exist, they can be used to predict the performance of larger models, which enables effective model selection. However, revealing scaling laws requires careful hyperparameter tuning and multiple runs for the purpose of uncertainty estimation, which incurs additional overhead, partially offsetting the computational benefits.

We reformulate the problem of encoding a multi-scale representation of a sequence in a language model by casting it in a continuous learning framework. We propose a hierarchical multi-scale language model in which short time-scale dependencies are encoded in the hidden state of a lower-level recurrent neural network while longer time-scale dependencies are encoded in the dynamic of the lower-level network by having a meta-learner update the weights of the lower-level neural network in an online meta-learning fashion. We use elastic weights consolidation as a higher-level to prevent catastrophic forgetting in our continuous learning framework.

We introduce WARP (Weight-space Adaptive Recurrent Prediction), a simple yet powerful model that unifies weight-space learning with linear recurrence to redefine sequence modeling. Unlike conventional recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which collapse temporal dynamics into fixed-dimensional hidden states, WARP explicitly parametrizes its hidden state as the weights and biases of a distinct auxiliary neural network, and uses input differences to drive its recurrence. This brain-inspired formulation enables efficient gradient-free adaptation of the auxiliary network at test-time, in-context learning abilities, and seamless integration of domain-specific physical priors. Empirical validation shows that WARP matches or surpasses state-of-the-art baselines on diverse classification tasks, featuring in the top three in 5 out of 6 real-world challenging datasets. Furthermore, extensive experiments across sequential image completion, multivariate time series forecasting, and dynamical system reconstruction demonstrate its expressiveness and generalisation capabilities. Remarkably, a physics-informed variant of our model outperforms the next best model by more than 10x. Ablation studies confirm the architectural necessity of key components, solidifying weight-space linear RNNs as a transformative paradigm for adaptive machine intelligence.

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare pretraining decisions involving optimizers, datasets, and model architectures. Despite the widespread use of scaling laws to model the dynamics of language model training, there has been little work on understanding how to best estimate and interpret them. We collect (and release) a large-scale dataset containing losses and downstream evaluations for 485 previously published pretrained models. We use these to estimate more than 1000 scaling laws, then derive a set of best practices for estimating scaling laws in new model families. We find that fitting scaling laws to intermediate checkpoints of training runs (and not just their final losses) substantially improves accuracy, and that -- all else equal -- estimates of performance are generally most accurate when derived from other models of similar sizes. However, because there is a significant degree of variability across model seeds, training multiple small models is sometimes more useful than training a single large one. Moreover, while different model families differ scaling behavior, they are often similar enough that a target model's behavior can be predicted from a single model with the same architecture, along with scaling parameter estimates derived from other model families.

A central goal of sequence modeling is designing a single principled model that can address sequence data across a range of modalities and tasks, particularly on long-range dependencies. Although conventional models including RNNs, CNNs, and Transformers have specialized variants for capturing long dependencies, they still struggle to scale to very long sequences of 10000 or more steps. A promising recent approach proposed modeling sequences by simulating the fundamental state space model (SSM) \( x'(t) = Ax(t) + Bu(t), y(t) = Cx(t) + Du(t) \), and showed that for appropriate choices of the state matrix \( A \), this system could handle long-range dependencies mathematically and empirically. However, this method has prohibitive computation and memory requirements, rendering it infeasible as a general sequence modeling solution. We propose the Structured State Space sequence model (S4) based on a new parameterization for the SSM, and show that it can be computed much more efficiently than prior approaches while preserving their theoretical strengths. Our technique involves conditioning \( A \) with a low-rank correction, allowing it to be diagonalized stably and reducing the SSM to the well-studied computation of a Cauchy kernel. S4 achieves strong empirical results across a diverse range of established benchmarks, including (i) 91\% accuracy on sequential CIFAR-10 with no data augmentation or auxiliary losses, on par with a larger 2-D ResNet, (ii) substantially closing the gap to Transformers on image and language modeling tasks, while performing generation 60times faster (iii) SoTA on every task from the Long Range Arena benchmark, including solving the challenging Path-X task of length 16k that all prior work fails on, while being as efficient as all competitors.

Recent research on time-series self-supervised models shows great promise in learning semantic representations. However, it has been limited to small-scale datasets, e.g., thousands of temporal sequences. In this work, we make key technical contributions that are tailored to the numerical properties of time-series data and allow the model to scale to large datasets, e.g., millions of temporal sequences. We adopt the Transformer architecture by first partitioning the input into non-overlapping windows. Each window is then characterized by its normalized shape and two scalar values denoting the mean and standard deviation within each window. To embed scalar values that may possess arbitrary numerical scales to high-dimensional vectors, we propose a numerically multi-scaled embedding module enumerating all possible scales for the scalar values. The model undergoes pretraining using the proposed numerically multi-scaled embedding with a simple contrastive objective on a large-scale dataset containing over a million sequences. We study its transfer performance on a number of univariate and multivariate classification benchmarks. Our method exhibits remarkable improvement against previous representation learning approaches and establishes the new state of the art, even compared with domain-specific non-learning-based methods.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Language models have been shown to exhibit positive scaling, where performance improves as models are scaled up in terms of size, compute, or data. In this work, we introduce NeQA, a dataset consisting of questions with negation in which language models do not exhibit straightforward positive scaling. We show that this task can exhibit inverse scaling, U-shaped scaling, or positive scaling, and the three scaling trends shift in this order as we use more powerful prompting methods or model families. We hypothesize that solving NeQA depends on two subtasks: question answering (task 1) and negation understanding (task 2). We find that task 1 has linear scaling, while task 2 has sigmoid-shaped scaling with an emergent transition point, and composing these two scaling trends yields the final scaling trend of NeQA. Our work reveals and provides a way to analyze the complex scaling trends of language models.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.