Daily Papers

Skillful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for various sectors of society but pose a grand scientific challenge. Recently, machine learning based weather forecasting models outperform the most successful numerical weather predictions generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), but have not yet surpassed conventional models at subseasonal timescales. This paper introduces FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, encompassing five upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S, trained on 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data, outperforms the ECMWF's state-of-the-art Subseasonal-to-Seasonal model in ensemble mean and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, notably enhancing global precipitation forecast. The improved performance of FuXi-S2S can be primarily attributed to its superior capability to capture forecast uncertainty and accurately predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), extending the skillful MJO prediction from 30 days to 36 days. Moreover, FuXi-S2S not only captures realistic teleconnections associated with the MJO, but also emerges as a valuable tool for discovering precursor signals, offering researchers insights and potentially establishing a new paradigm in Earth system science research.

Motor impairments, frequently caused by neurological incidents like strokes or traumatic brain injuries, present substantial obstacles in rehabilitation therapy. This research aims to elevate the field by optimizing motor imagery classification algorithms within Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). By improving the efficiency of BCIs, we offer a novel approach that holds significant promise for enhancing motor rehabilitation outcomes. Utilizing unsupervised techniques for dimensionality reduction, namely Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) coupled with K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), we evaluate the necessity of employing supervised methods such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for classification tasks. Importantly, participants who exhibited high KNN scores following UMAP dimensionality reduction also achieved high accuracy in supervised deep learning (DL) models. Due to individualized model requirements and massive neural training data, dimensionality reduction becomes an effective preprocessing step that minimizes the need for extensive data labeling and supervised deep learning techniques. This approach has significant implications not only for targeted therapies in motor dysfunction but also for addressing regulatory, safety, and reliability concerns in the rapidly evolving BCI field.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

A reply to Drake (2013) "Early warning signals of stochastic switching" http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.0686

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

We introduce anticipation: a method for constructing a controllable generative model of a temporal point process (the event process) conditioned asynchronously on realizations of a second, correlated process (the control process). We achieve this by interleaving sequences of events and controls, such that controls appear following stopping times in the event sequence. This work is motivated by problems arising in the control of symbolic music generation. We focus on infilling control tasks, whereby the controls are a subset of the events themselves, and conditional generation completes a sequence of events given the fixed control events. We train anticipatory infilling models using the large and diverse Lakh MIDI music dataset. These models match the performance of autoregressive models for prompted music generation, with the additional capability to perform infilling control tasks, including accompaniment. Human evaluators report that an anticipatory model produces accompaniments with similar musicality to even music composed by humans over a 20-second clip.

Prototype-based neural networks offer interpretable predictions by comparing inputs to learned, representative signal patterns anchored in training data. While such models have shown promise in the classification of physiological data, it remains unclear whether their prototypes capture an underlying structure that aligns with broader clinical phenotypes. We use a prototype-based deep learning model trained for multi-label ECG classification using the PTB-XL dataset. Then without modification we performed inference on the MIMIC-IV clinical database. We assess whether individual prototypes, trained solely for classification, are associated with hospital discharge diagnoses in the form of phecodes in this external population. Individual prototypes demonstrate significantly stronger and more specific associations with clinical outcomes compared to the classifier's class predictions, NLP-extracted concepts, or broader prototype classes across all phecode categories. Prototype classes with mixed significance patterns exhibit significantly greater intra-class distances (p < 0.0001), indicating the model learned to differentiate clinically meaningful variations within diagnostic categories. The prototypes achieve strong predictive performance across diverse conditions, with AUCs ranging from 0.89 for atrial fibrillation to 0.91 for heart failure, while also showing substantial signal for non-cardiac conditions such as sepsis and renal disease. These findings suggest that prototype-based models can support interpretable digital phenotyping from physiologic time-series data, providing transferable intermediate phenotypes that capture clinically meaningful physiologic signatures beyond their original training objectives.

We propose the Signal Dice Similarity Coefficient (SDSC), a structure-aware metric function for time series self-supervised representation learning. Most Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods for signals commonly adopt distance-based objectives such as mean squared error (MSE), which are sensitive to amplitude, invariant to waveform polarity, and unbounded in scale. These properties hinder semantic alignment and reduce interpretability. SDSC addresses this by quantifying structural agreement between temporal signals based on the intersection of signed amplitudes, derived from the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC).Although SDSC is defined as a structure-aware metric, it can be used as a loss by subtracting from 1 and applying a differentiable approximation of the Heaviside function for gradient-based optimization. A hybrid loss formulation is also proposed to combine SDSC with MSE, improving stability and preserving amplitude where necessary. Experiments on forecasting and classification benchmarks demonstrate that SDSC-based pre-training achieves comparable or improved performance over MSE, particularly in in-domain and low-resource scenarios. The results suggest that structural fidelity in signal representations enhances the semantic representation quality, supporting the consideration of structure-aware metrics as viable alternatives to conventional distance-based methods.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

The progress in modelling time series and, more generally, sequences of structured data has recently revamped research in anomaly detection. The task stands for identifying abnormal behaviors in financial series, IT systems, aerospace measurements, and the medical domain, where anomaly detection may aid in isolating cases of depression and attend the elderly. Anomaly detection in time series is a complex task since anomalies are rare due to highly non-linear temporal correlations and since the definition of anomalous is sometimes subjective. Here we propose the novel use of Hyperbolic uncertainty for Anomaly Detection (HypAD). HypAD learns self-supervisedly to reconstruct the input signal. We adopt best practices from the state-of-the-art to encode the sequence by an LSTM, jointly learned with a decoder to reconstruct the signal, with the aid of GAN critics. Uncertainty is estimated end-to-end by means of a hyperbolic neural network. By using uncertainty, HypAD may assess whether it is certain about the input signal but it fails to reconstruct it because this is anomalous; or whether the reconstruction error does not necessarily imply anomaly, as the model is uncertain, e.g. a complex but regular input signal. The novel key idea is that a detectable anomaly is one where the model is certain but it predicts wrongly. HypAD outperforms the current state-of-the-art for univariate anomaly detection on established benchmarks based on data from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. It also yields state-of-the-art performance on a multivariate dataset of anomaly activities in elderly home residences, and it outperforms the baseline on SWaT. Overall, HypAD yields the lowest false alarms at the best performance rate, thanks to successfully identifying detectable anomalies.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision domains. However, the development of PTMs on healthcare time-series data is lagging behind.This underscores the limitations of the existing transformer-based architectures, particularly their scalability to handle large-scale time series and ability to capture long-term temporal dependencies. In this study, we present Timely Generative Pre-trained Transformer (TimelyGPT). TimelyGPT employs an extrapolatable position (xPos) embedding to encode trend and periodic patterns into time-series representations. It also integrates recurrent attention and temporal convolution modules to effectively capture global-local temporal dependencies. We evaluated TimelyGPT on two large-scale healthcare time series datasets corresponding to continuous biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series, respectively. Our experiments show that during pre-training, TimelyGPT excels in learning time-series representations from continuously monitored biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series data commonly observed in longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In forecasting continuous biosignals, TimelyGPT achieves accurate extrapolation up to 6,000 timesteps of body temperature during the sleep stage transition, given a short look-up window (i.e., prompt) containing only 2,000 timesteps. For irregularly-sampled time series, TimelyGPT with a proposed time-specific inference demonstrates high top recall scores in predicting future diagnoses using early diagnostic records, effectively handling irregular intervals between clinical records. Together, we envision TimelyGPT to be useful in a broad spectrum of health domains, including long-term patient health state forecasting and patient risk trajectory prediction.

Reasoning models improve their problem-solving ability through inference-time scaling, allocating more compute via longer token budgets. Identifying which reasoning traces are likely to succeed remains a key opportunity: reliably predicting productive paths can substantially reduce wasted computation and improve overall efficiency. We introduce Latent-Trajectory signals that characterize the temporal evolution of a model's internal representations during the generation of intermediate reasoning tokens. By measuring the overall change in latent representations between the start and end of reasoning, the change accumulated across intermediate steps, and the extent to which these changes advance toward the final state, we show that these signals predict solution accuracy more reliably than both cross-layer metrics and output-based confidence measures. When used to guide answer selection across multiple sampled generations, Latent-Trajectory signals make test-time scaling more effective and efficient than majority voting, reducing token usage by up to 70% while preserving and even improving accuracy by 2.6% on average. Moreover, these predictive signals often emerge early in the reasoning trace, enabling early selection and allocation of compute to the most promising candidates. Our findings contribute not only practical strategies for inference-time efficiency, but also a deeper interpretability perspective on how reasoning processes are represented and differentiated in latent space.

Autoregressive Large Language Models have transformed the landscape of Natural Language Processing. Pre-train and prompt paradigm has replaced the conventional approach of pre-training and fine-tuning for many downstream NLP tasks. This shift has been possible largely due to LLMs and innovative prompting techniques. LLMs have shown great promise for a variety of downstream tasks owing to their vast parameters and huge datasets that they are pre-trained on. However, in order to fully realize their potential, their outputs must be guided towards the desired outcomes. Prompting, in which a specific input or instruction is provided to guide the LLMs toward the intended output, has become a tool for achieving this goal. In this paper, we discuss the various prompting techniques that have been applied to fully harness the power of LLMs. We present a taxonomy of existing literature on prompting techniques and provide a concise survey based on this taxonomy. Further, we identify some open problems in the realm of prompting in autoregressive LLMs which could serve as a direction for future research.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

In October 2007, a Research Proposal for the University of Sydney, Australia, the author suggested that biovie-physical phenomenon as `electrodynamic dependant biological vision', is governed by relativistic quantum laws and biovision. The phenomenon on the basis of `biovielectroluminescence', satisfies man/microbio/megabio/computer vision (MMMCV), as a robust candidate for physical and visual sciences. The general aim of this addendum is to present a refined text of Sections 1-3 of that proposal and highlighting the contents of its Appendix in form of a `Mechanisms' Section. We then briefly remind in an article aimed for December 2007, by appending two more equations into Section 3, a theoretical II-time scenario as a time model well-proposed for the phenomenon. The time model within the core of the proposal, plays a significant role in emphasizing the principle points on Objectives no. 1-8, Sub-hypothesis 3.1.2, mentioned in Article [arXiv:0710.0410]. It also expresses the time concept in terms of causing quantized energy f(|E|) of time |t|, emit in regard to shortening the probability of particle loci as predictable patterns of particle's un-occurred motion, a solution to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle (HUP) into a simplistic manner. We conclude that, practical frames via a time algorithm to this model, fixates such predictable patterns of motion of scenery bodies onto recordable observation points of a MMMCV system. It even suppresses/predicts superposition phenomena coming from a human subject and/or other bio-subjects for any decision making event, e.g., brainwave quantum patterns based on vision. Maintaining the existential probability of Riemann surfaces of II-time scenarios in the context of biovielectroluminescence, makes motion-prediction a possibility.

This paper proposes a methodology for discovering meaningful properties in data by exploring the latent space of unsupervised deep generative models. We combine manipulation of individual latent variables to extreme values with methods inspired by causal inference into an approach we call causal disentanglement with extreme values (CDEV) and show that this method yields insights for model interpretability. With this, we can test for what properties of unknown data the model encodes as meaningful, using it to glean insight into the communication system of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), one of the most intriguing and understudied animal communication systems. The network architecture used has been shown to learn meaningful representations of speech; here, it is used as a learning mechanism to decipher the properties of another vocal communication system in which case we have no ground truth. The proposed methodology suggests that sperm whales encode information using the number of clicks in a sequence, the regularity of their timing, and audio properties such as the spectral mean and the acoustic regularity of the sequences. Some of these findings are consistent with existing hypotheses, while others are proposed for the first time. We also argue that our models uncover rules that govern the structure of units in the communication system and apply them while generating innovative data not shown during training. This paper suggests that an interpretation of the outputs of deep neural networks with causal inference methodology can be a viable strategy for approaching data about which little is known and presents another case of how deep learning can limit the hypothesis space. Finally, the proposed approach can be extended to other architectures and datasets.

Streaming speech recognition architectures are employed for low-latency, real-time applications. Such architectures are often characterized by their causality. Causal architectures emit tokens at each frame, relying only on current and past signal, while non-causal models are exposed to a window of future frames at each step to increase predictive accuracy. This dichotomy amounts to a trade-off for real-time Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system design: profit from the low-latency benefit of strictly-causal architectures while accepting predictive performance limitations, or realize the modeling benefits of future-context models accompanied by their higher latency penalty. In this work, we relax the constraints of this choice and present the Adaptive Non-Causal Attention Transducer (ANCAT). Our architecture is non-causal in the traditional sense, but executes in a low-latency, streaming manner by dynamically choosing when to rely on future context and to what degree within the audio stream. The resulting mechanism, when coupled with our novel regularization algorithms, delivers comparable accuracy to non-causal configurations while improving significantly upon latency, closing the gap with their causal counterparts. We showcase our design experimentally by reporting comparative ASR task results with measures of accuracy and latency on both publicly accessible and production-scale, voice-assistant datasets.

Deep learning-based electrocardiogram (ECG) classification has shown impressive performance but clinical adoption has been slowed by the lack of transparent and faithful explanations. Post hoc methods such as saliency maps may fail to reflect a model's true decision process. Prototype-based reasoning offers a more transparent alternative by grounding decisions in similarity to learned representations of real ECG segments, enabling faithful, case-based explanations. We introduce ProtoECGNet, a prototype-based deep learning model for interpretable, multi-label ECG classification. ProtoECGNet employs a structured, multi-branch architecture that reflects clinical interpretation workflows: it integrates a 1D CNN with global prototypes for rhythm classification, a 2D CNN with time-localized prototypes for morphology-based reasoning, and a 2D CNN with global prototypes for diffuse abnormalities. Each branch is trained with a prototype loss designed for multi-label learning, combining clustering, separation, diversity, and a novel contrastive loss that encourages appropriate separation between prototypes of unrelated classes while allowing clustering for frequently co-occurring diagnoses. We evaluate ProtoECGNet on all 71 diagnostic labels from the PTB-XL dataset, demonstrating competitive performance relative to state-of-the-art black-box models while providing structured, case-based explanations. To assess prototype quality, we conduct a structured clinician review of the final model's projected prototypes, finding that they are rated as representative and clear. ProtoECGNet shows that prototype learning can be effectively scaled to complex, multi-label time-series classification, offering a practical path toward transparent and trustworthy deep learning models for clinical decision support.

We train an object detector built from convolutional neural networks to count interference fringes in elliptical antinode regions in frames of high-speed video recordings of transient oscillations in Caribbean steelpan drums illuminated by electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI). The annotations provided by our model aim to contribute to the understanding of time-dependent behavior in such drums by tracking the development of sympathetic vibration modes. The system is trained on a dataset of crowdsourced human-annotated images obtained from the Zooniverse Steelpan Vibrations Project. Due to the small number of human-annotated images and the ambiguity of the annotation task, we also evaluate the model on a large corpus of synthetic images whose properties have been matched to the real images by style transfer using a Generative Adversarial Network. Applying the model to thousands of unlabeled video frames, we measure oscillations consistent with audio recordings of these drum strikes. One unanticipated result is that sympathetic oscillations of higher-octave notes significantly precede the rise in sound intensity of the corresponding second harmonic tones; the mechanism responsible for this remains unidentified. This paper primarily concerns the development of the predictive model; further exploration of the steelpan images and deeper physical insights await its further application.

Electrocardiography (ECG) signal generation has been heavily explored using generative adversarial networks (GAN) because the implementation of 12-lead ECGs is not always feasible. The GAN models have achieved remarkable results in reproducing ECG signals but are only designed for multiple lead inputs and the features the GAN model preserves have not been identified-limiting the generated signals use in cardiovascular disease (CVD)-predictive models. This paper presents ECGNet which is a procedure that generates a complete set of 12-lead ECG signals from any single lead input using a GAN framework with a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) generator and a convolutional neural network (CNN) discriminator. Cross and auto-correlation analysis performed on the generated signals identifies features conserved during the signal generation-i.e., features that can characterize the unique-nature of each signal and thus likely indicators of CVD. Finally, by using ECG signals annotated with the CVD-indicative features detailed by the correlation analysis as inputs for a CVD-onset-predictive CNN model, we overcome challenges preventing the prediction of multiple-CVD targets. Our models are experimented on 15s 12-lead ECG dataset recorded using MyoVista's wavECG. Functional outcome data for each patient is recorded and used in the CVD-predictive model. Our best GAN model achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with Frechet Distance (FD) scores of 4.73, 4.89, 5.18, 4.77, 4.71, and 5.55 on the V1-V6 pre-cordial leads respectively and shows strength in preserving the P-Q segments and R-peaks in the generated signals. To the best of our knowledge, ECGNet is the first to predict all of the remaining eleven leads from the input of any single lead.

The dominant paradigm for training large reasoning models starts with pre-training using next-token prediction loss on vast amounts of data. Reinforcement learning, while powerful in scaling reasoning, is introduced only as the very last phase of post-training, preceded by supervised fine-tuning. While dominant, is this an optimal way of training? In this paper, we present RLP, an information-driven reinforcement pretraining objective, that brings the core spirit of reinforcement learning -- exploration -- to the last phase of pretraining. The key idea is to treat chain-of-thought as an exploratory action, with rewards computed based on the information gain it provides for predicting future tokens. This training objective essentially encourages the model to think for itself before predicting what comes next, thus teaching an independent thinking behavior earlier in the pretraining. More concretely, the reward signal measures the increase in log-likelihood of the next token when conditioning on both context and a sampled reasoning chain, compared to conditioning on context alone. This approach yields a verifier-free dense reward signal, allowing for efficient training for the full document stream during pretraining. Specifically, RLP reframes reinforcement learning for reasoning as a pretraining objective on ordinary text, bridging the gap between next-token prediction and the emergence of useful chain-of-thought reasoning. Pretraining with RLP on Qwen3-1.7B-Base lifts the overall average across an eight-benchmark math-and-science suite by 19%. With identical post-training, the gains compound, with the largest improvements on reasoning-heavy tasks such as AIME25 and MMLU-Pro. Applying RLP to the hybrid Nemotron-Nano-12B-v2 increases the overall average from 42.81% to 61.32% and raises the average on scientific reasoning by 23%, demonstrating scalability across architectures and model sizes.

Despite their strong performance on reasoning tasks, large reasoning models (LRMs) often suffer from overthinking, producing unnecessarily long outputs and incurring high end-to-end latency, a significant limitation to their real-world deployment. To address overthinking, early-exit mechanisms have been proposed to terminate reasoning before typical completion, showing that this approach can effectively shorten generation length with minimal impact on accuracy. However, their reliance on probing mechanisms introduces a detection overhead that limits their end-to-end latency gains and compromises their generalizability across diverse problems. Inspired by the use of hidden states in speculative decoding, we propose SpecExit, a novel framework that predicts both future tokens and an early-exit signal directly from a lightweight draft model without probing overhead. Our method offers significant improvements, reducing average generation length by 66\% and achieving a 2.5x speedup in end-to-end latency compared to the speculative decoding baseline, without compromising accuracy. Our method leverages the inherent signals from hidden states to provide effective early-exit signals, suggesting broader use of hidden states for efficient reasoning. Our code is available at https://github.com/Tencent/AngelSlim.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

This work aims to predict channels in wireless communication systems based on noisy observations, utilizing sequence-to-sequence models with attention (Seq2Seq-attn) and transformer models. Both models are adapted from natural language processing to tackle the complex challenge of channel prediction. Additionally, a new technique called reverse positional encoding is introduced in the transformer model to improve the robustness of the model against varying sequence lengths. Similarly, the encoder outputs of the Seq2Seq-attn model are reversed before applying attention. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ordering techniques allow the models to better capture the relationships between the channel snapshots within the sequence, irrespective of the sequence length, as opposed to existing methods.

In the axion model, electromagnetic waves interacting with axions induce frequency-dependent time delays, determined by the axion mass and decay constant. These small delays are difficult to detect, making traditional methods ineffective. To address this, we computed time delays for various parameters and found a prominent dispersion signal when the wave frequency equals half the axion mass. Based on this, we developed a machine learning-based pipeline, achieving 95\% classification accuracy and demonstrating strong detection capability in low signal-to-noise data. Applying this to PSR J1933-6211, we found no axion-induced delays within current sensitivity limits. While existing constraints are limited by atomic clock resolution in radio telescopes, future advances in optical clocks and broader bandwidths will enable more extensive searches. In particular, combining high-precision optical clocks with next-generation radio telescopes, such as the Qitai Radio Telescope, could improve decay constant constraints by four orders of magnitude for axion masses in the 10^{-6} sim 10^{-4} eV range.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

Recently, interest has grown in exploring the hypothesis that neural activity conveys information through precise spiking motifs. To investigate this phenomenon, various algorithms have been proposed to detect such motifs in Single Unit Activity (SUA) recorded from populations of neurons. In this study, we present a novel detection model based on the inversion of a generative model of raster plot synthesis. Using this generative model, we derive an optimal detection procedure that takes the form of logistic regression combined with temporal convolution. A key advantage of this model is its differentiability, which allows us to formulate a supervised learning approach using a gradient descent on the binary cross-entropy loss. To assess the model's ability to detect spiking motifs in synthetic data, we first perform numerical evaluations. This analysis highlights the advantages of using spiking motifs over traditional firing rate based population codes. We then successfully demonstrate that our learning method can recover synthetically generated spiking motifs, indicating its potential for further applications. In the future, we aim to extend this method to real neurobiological data, where the ground truth is unknown, to explore and detect spiking motifs in a more natural and biologically relevant context.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

We discovered the underlying physics in Next-token Prediction (NTP). We identified the law of information conservation within NTP and proposed the First Law of Information Capacity (IC-1), demonstrating that the essence of intelligence emergence in auto-regressive models is fundamentally a process of information transfer. We also introduced Landauer's Principle into NTP, formulating the Second Law of Information Capacity (IC-2), which establishes the relationship between auto-regressive model training and energy consumption. Additionally, we presented several corollaries, which hold practical significance for production practices. Finally, we validated the compatibility and complementarity of our findings with existing theories.

Instrument playing techniques (IPTs) constitute a pivotal component of musical expression. However, the development of automatic IPT detection methods suffers from limited labeled data and inherent class imbalance issues. In this paper, we propose to apply a self-supervised learning model pre-trained on large-scale unlabeled music data and finetune it on IPT detection tasks. This approach addresses data scarcity and class imbalance challenges. Recognizing the significance of pitch in capturing the nuances of IPTs and the importance of onset in locating IPT events, we investigate multi-task finetuning with pitch and onset detection as auxiliary tasks. Additionally, we apply a post-processing approach for event-level prediction, where an IPT activation initiates an event only if the onset output confirms an onset in that frame. Our method outperforms prior approaches in both frame-level and event-level metrics across multiple IPT benchmark datasets. Further experiments demonstrate the efficacy of multi-task finetuning on each IPT class.

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

Modern Language Models (LMs) owe much of their success to masked causal attention, the backbone of Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) models. Although GPTs can process the entire user prompt at once, the causal masking is applied to all input tokens step-by-step, mimicking the generation process. This imposes an unnecessary constraint during the initial "prefill" phase when the model processes the input prompt and generates the internal representations before producing any output tokens. In this work, attention is masked based on the known block structure at the prefill phase, followed by the conventional token-by-token autoregressive process after that. For example, in a typical chat prompt, the system prompt is treated as one block, and the user prompt as the next one. Each of these is treated as a unit for the purpose of masking, such that the first tokens in each block can access the subsequent tokens in a non-causal manner. Then, the model answer is generated in the conventional causal manner. This Segment-by-Segment scheme entails no additional computational overhead. When integrating it into models such as Llama and Qwen, state-of-the-art performance is consistently achieved.

We introduce a general self-supervised approach to predict the future outputs of a short-range sensor (such as a proximity sensor) given the current outputs of a long-range sensor (such as a camera); we assume that the former is directly related to some piece of information to be perceived (such as the presence of an obstacle in a given position), whereas the latter is information-rich but hard to interpret directly. We instantiate and implement the approach on a small mobile robot to detect obstacles at various distances using the video stream of the robot's forward-pointing camera, by training a convolutional neural network on automatically-acquired datasets. We quantitatively evaluate the quality of the predictions on unseen scenarios, qualitatively evaluate robustness to different operating conditions, and demonstrate usage as the sole input of an obstacle-avoidance controller. We additionally instantiate the approach on a different simulated scenario with complementary characteristics, to exemplify the generality of our contribution.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Time series data and their time-frequency representation from gravitational-wave interferometers present multiple opportunities for the use of artificial intelligence methods associated with signal and image processing. Closely connected with this is the real-time aspect associated with gravitational-wave interferometers and the astrophysical observations they perform; the discovery potential of these instruments can be significantly enhanced when data processing can be achieved in O(1s) timescales. In this work, we introduce a novel signal and noise identification tool based on the YOLO (You Only Look Once) object detection framework. For its application into gravitational waves, we will refer to it as GW-YOLO. This tool can provide scene identification capabilities and essential information regarding whether an observed transient is any combination of noise and signal. Additionally, it supplies detailed time-frequency coordinates of the detected objects in the form of pixel masks, an essential property that can be used to understand and characterize astrophysical sources, as well as instrumental noise. The simultaneous identification of noise and signal, combined with precise pixel-level localization, represents a significant advancement in gravitational-wave data analysis. Our approach yields a 50\% detection efficiency for binary black hole signals at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 15 when such signals overlap with transient noise artifacts. When noise artifacts overlap with binary neutron star signals, our algorithm attains 50\% detection efficiency at an SNR of 30. This presents the first quantitative assessment of the ability to detect astrophysical events overlapping with realistic, instrument noise present in gravitational-wave interferometers.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are a promising research direction for building power-efficient information processing systems, especially for temporal tasks such as speech recognition. In SNNs, delays refer to the time needed for one spike to travel from one neuron to another. These delays matter because they influence the spike arrival times, and it is well-known that spiking neurons respond more strongly to coincident input spikes. More formally, it has been shown theoretically that plastic delays greatly increase the expressivity in SNNs. Yet, efficient algorithms to learn these delays have been lacking. Here, we propose a new discrete-time algorithm that addresses this issue in deep feedforward SNNs using backpropagation, in an offline manner. To simulate delays between consecutive layers, we use 1D convolutions across time. The kernels contain only a few non-zero weights - one per synapse - whose positions correspond to the delays. These positions are learned together with the weights using the recently proposed Dilated Convolution with Learnable Spacings (DCLS). We evaluated our method on three datasets: the Spiking Heidelberg Dataset (SHD), the Spiking Speech Commands (SSC) and its non-spiking version Google Speech Commands v0.02 (GSC) benchmarks, which require detecting temporal patterns. We used feedforward SNNs with two or three hidden fully connected layers, and vanilla leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. We showed that fixed random delays help and that learning them helps even more. Furthermore, our method outperformed the state-of-the-art in the three datasets without using recurrent connections and with substantially fewer parameters. Our work demonstrates the potential of delay learning in developing accurate and precise models for temporal data processing. Our code is based on PyTorch / SpikingJelly and available at: https://github.com/Thvnvtos/SNN-delays

Effective cyber threat recognition and prevention demand comprehensible forecasting systems, as prior approaches commonly offer limited and, ultimately, unconvincing information. We introduce Simplified Plaintext Language (SPLAIN), a natural language generator that converts warning data into user-friendly cyber threat explanations. SPLAIN is designed to generate clear, actionable outputs, incorporating hierarchically organized explanatory details about input data and system functionality. Given the inputs of individual sensor-induced forecasting signals and an overall warning from a fusion module, SPLAIN queries each signal for information on contributing sensors and data signals. This collected data is processed into a coherent English explanation, encompassing forecasting, sensing, and data elements for user review. SPLAIN's template-based approach ensures consistent warning structure and vocabulary. SPLAIN's hierarchical output structure allows each threat and its components to be expanded to reveal underlying explanations on demand. Our conclusions emphasize the need for designers to specify the "how" and "why" behind cyber warnings, advocate for simple structured templates in generating consistent explanations, and recognize that direct causal links in Machine Learning approaches may not always be identifiable, requiring some explanations to focus on general methodologies, such as model and training data.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

We show that autoregressive decoding of a transformer-based language model can realize universal computation, without external intervention or modification of the model's weights. Establishing this result requires understanding how a language model can process arbitrarily long inputs using a bounded context. For this purpose, we consider a generalization of autoregressive decoding where, given a long input, emitted tokens are appended to the end of the sequence as the context window advances. We first show that the resulting system corresponds to a classical model of computation, a Lag system, that has long been known to be computationally universal. By leveraging a new proof, we show that a universal Turing machine can be simulated by a Lag system with 2027 production rules. We then investigate whether an existing large language model can simulate the behaviour of such a universal Lag system. We give an affirmative answer by showing that a single system-prompt can be developed for gemini-1.5-pro-001 that drives the model, under deterministic (greedy) decoding, to correctly apply each of the 2027 production rules. We conclude that, by the Church-Turing thesis, prompted gemini-1.5-pro-001 with extended autoregressive (greedy) decoding is a general purpose computer.

We present Readout Guidance, a method for controlling text-to-image diffusion models with learned signals. Readout Guidance uses readout heads, lightweight networks trained to extract signals from the features of a pre-trained, frozen diffusion model at every timestep. These readouts can encode single-image properties, such as pose, depth, and edges; or higher-order properties that relate multiple images, such as correspondence and appearance similarity. Furthermore, by comparing the readout estimates to a user-defined target, and back-propagating the gradient through the readout head, these estimates can be used to guide the sampling process. Compared to prior methods for conditional generation, Readout Guidance requires significantly fewer added parameters and training samples, and offers a convenient and simple recipe for reproducing different forms of conditional control under a single framework, with a single architecture and sampling procedure. We showcase these benefits in the applications of drag-based manipulation, identity-consistent generation, and spatially aligned control. Project page: https://readout-guidance.github.io.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

The precise timing of spikes emitted by neurons plays a crucial role in shaping the response of efferent biological neurons. This temporal dimension of neural activity holds significant importance in understanding information processing in neurobiology, especially for the performance of neuromorphic hardware, such as event-based cameras. Nonetheless, many artificial neural models disregard this critical temporal dimension of neural activity. In this study, we present a model designed to efficiently detect temporal spiking motifs using a layer of spiking neurons equipped with heterogeneous synaptic delays. Our model capitalizes on the diverse synaptic delays present on the dendritic tree, enabling specific arrangements of temporally precise synaptic inputs to synchronize upon reaching the basal dendritic tree. We formalize this process as a time-invariant logistic regression, which can be trained using labeled data. To demonstrate its practical efficacy, we apply the model to naturalistic videos transformed into event streams, simulating the output of the biological retina or event-based cameras. To evaluate the robustness of the model in detecting visual motion, we conduct experiments by selectively pruning weights and demonstrate that the model remains efficient even under significantly reduced workloads. In conclusion, by providing a comprehensive, event-driven computational building block, the incorporation of heterogeneous delays has the potential to greatly improve the performance of future spiking neural network algorithms, particularly in the context of neuromorphic chips.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining whether there is a causal relation between two event mentions. Conventional prompt learning designs a prompt template to first predict an answer word and then maps it to the final decision. Unlike conventional prompts, we argue that predicting an answer word may not be a necessary prerequisite for the ECI task. Instead, we can first make a deterministic assumption on the existence of causal relation between two events and then evaluate its rationality to either accept or reject the assumption. The design motivation is to try the most utilization of the encyclopedia-like knowledge embedded in a pre-trained language model. In light of such considerations, we propose a deterministic assumption prompt learning model, called DAPrompt, for the ECI task. In particular, we design a simple deterministic assumption template concatenating with the input event pair, which includes two masks as predicted events' tokens. We use the probabilities of predicted events to evaluate the assumption rationality for the final event causality decision. Experiments on the EventStoryLine corpus and Causal-TimeBank corpus validate our design objective in terms of significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Modern generative models demonstrate impressive capabilities, likely stemming from an ability to identify and manipulate abstract concepts underlying their training data. However, fundamental questions remain: what determines the concepts a model learns, the order in which it learns them, and its ability to manipulate those concepts? To address these questions, we propose analyzing a model's learning dynamics via a framework we call the concept space, where each axis represents an independent concept underlying the data generating process. By characterizing learning dynamics in this space, we identify how the speed at which a concept is learned, and hence the order of concept learning, is controlled by properties of the data we term concept signal. Further, we observe moments of sudden turns in the direction of a model's learning dynamics in concept space. Surprisingly, these points precisely correspond to the emergence of hidden capabilities, i.e., where latent interventions show the model possesses the capability to manipulate a concept, but these capabilities cannot yet be elicited via naive input prompting. While our results focus on synthetically defined toy datasets, we hypothesize a general claim on emergence of hidden capabilities may hold: generative models possess latent capabilities that emerge suddenly and consistently during training, though a model might not exhibit these capabilities under naive input prompting.

We introduce BeepBank-500, a compact, fully synthetic earcon/alert dataset (300-500 clips) designed for rapid, rights-clean experimentation in human-computer interaction and audio machine learning. Each clip is generated from a parametric recipe controlling waveform family (sine, square, triangle, FM), fundamental frequency, duration, amplitude envelope, amplitude modulation (AM), and lightweight Schroeder-style reverberation. We use three reverberation settings: dry, and two synthetic rooms denoted 'rir small' ('small') and 'rir medium' ('medium') throughout the paper and in the metadata. We release mono 48 kHz WAV audio (16-bit), a rich metadata table (signal/spectral features), and tiny reproducible baselines for (i) waveform-family classification and (ii) f0 regression on single tones. The corpus targets tasks such as earcon classification, timbre analyses, and onset detection, with clearly stated licensing and limitations. Audio is dedicated to the public domain via CC0-1.0; code is under MIT. Data DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17172015. Code: https://github.com/mandip42/earcons-mini-500.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated new possibilities for accurate and efficient time series analysis, but prior work often required heavy fine-tuning and/or ignored inter-series correlations. In this work, we explore simple and flexible prompt-based strategies that enable LLMs to perform time series forecasting without extensive retraining or the use of a complex external architecture. Through the exploration of specialized prompting methods that leverage time series decomposition, patch-based tokenization, and similarity-based neighbor augmentation, we find that it is possible to enhance LLM forecasting quality while maintaining simplicity and requiring minimal preprocessing of data. To this end, we propose our own method, PatchInstruct, which enables LLMs to make precise and effective predictions.

Do transformers "think ahead" during inference at a given position? It is known transformers prepare information in the hidden states of the forward pass at t that is then used in future forward passes t+tau. We posit two explanations for this phenomenon: pre-caching, in which off-diagonal gradient terms present in training result in the model computing features at t irrelevant to the present inference task but useful for the future, and breadcrumbs, in which features most relevant to time step t are already the same as those that would most benefit inference at time t+tau. We test these hypotheses by training language models without propagating gradients to past timesteps, a scheme we formalize as myopic training. In a synthetic data setting, we find clear evidence for pre-caching. In the autoregressive language modeling setting, our experiments are more suggestive of the breadcrumbs hypothesis.

This paper introduces WaveGrad, a conditional model for waveform generation which estimates gradients of the data density. The model is built on prior work on score matching and diffusion probabilistic models. It starts from a Gaussian white noise signal and iteratively refines the signal via a gradient-based sampler conditioned on the mel-spectrogram. WaveGrad offers a natural way to trade inference speed for sample quality by adjusting the number of refinement steps, and bridges the gap between non-autoregressive and autoregressive models in terms of audio quality. We find that it can generate high fidelity audio samples using as few as six iterations. Experiments reveal WaveGrad to generate high fidelity audio, outperforming adversarial non-autoregressive baselines and matching a strong likelihood-based autoregressive baseline using fewer sequential operations. Audio samples are available at https://wavegrad.github.io/.

Speculative decoding (SPD) aims to accelerate the auto-regressive token generation process of a target Large Language Model (LLM). Some approaches employ a draft model with multiple heads to predict a sequence of future tokens, where each head handles a token in the sequence. The target LLM verifies the predicted sequence and accepts aligned tokens, enabling efficient multi-token generation. However, existing methods assume that all tokens within a sequence are equally important, employing identical head structures and relying on a single-generation paradigm, either serial or parallel. To this end, we theoretically demonstrate that initial tokens in the draft sequence are more important than later ones. Building on this insight, we propose Gumiho, a hybrid model combining serial and parallel heads. Specifically, given the critical importance of early tokens, we employ a sophisticated Transformer architecture for the early draft heads in a serial configuration to improve accuracy. For later tokens, we utilize multiple lightweight MLP heads operating in parallel to enhance efficiency. By allocating more advanced model structures and longer running times to the early heads, Gumiho achieves improved overall performance. The experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches, fully validating its effectiveness.

We introduce Self-Monitored Inference-Time INtervention (SMITIN), an approach for controlling an autoregressive generative music transformer using classifier probes. These simple logistic regression probes are trained on the output of each attention head in the transformer using a small dataset of audio examples both exhibiting and missing a specific musical trait (e.g., the presence/absence of drums, or real/synthetic music). We then steer the attention heads in the probe direction, ensuring the generative model output captures the desired musical trait. Additionally, we monitor the probe output to avoid adding an excessive amount of intervention into the autoregressive generation, which could lead to temporally incoherent music. We validate our results objectively and subjectively for both audio continuation and text-to-music applications, demonstrating the ability to add controls to large generative models for which retraining or even fine-tuning is impractical for most musicians. Audio samples of the proposed intervention approach are available on our demo page http://tinyurl.com/smitin .

The widespread adoption of scalable mobile sensing has led to large amounts of time series data for real-world applications. A fundamental application is multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), which aims to predict future time series values based on historical observations. Existing MTSF methods suffer from limited parameterization and small-scale training data. Recently, Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced in time series, which achieve promising forecasting performance but incur heavy computational costs. To solve these challenges, we propose TimeCMA, an LLM-empowered framework for time series forecasting with cross-modality alignment. We design a dual-modality encoding module with two branches, where the time series encoding branch extracts relatively low-quality yet pure embeddings of time series through an inverted Transformer. In addition, the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series as prompts to obtain high-quality yet entangled prompt embeddings via a Pre-trained LLM. Then, we design a cross-modality alignment module to retrieve high-quality and pure time series embeddings from the prompt embeddings. Moreover, we develop a time series forecasting module to decode the aligned embeddings while capturing dependencies among multiple variables for forecasting. Notably, we tailor the prompt to encode sufficient temporal information into a last token and design the last token embedding storage to reduce computational costs. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework.

Causal precedence between biochemical interactions is crucial in the biomedical domain, because it transforms collections of individual interactions, e.g., bindings and phosphorylations, into the causal mechanisms needed to inform meaningful search and inference. Here, we analyze causal precedence in the biomedical domain as distinct from open-domain, temporal precedence. First, we describe a novel, hand-annotated text corpus of causal precedence in the biomedical domain. Second, we use this corpus to investigate a battery of models of precedence, covering rule-based, feature-based, and latent representation models. The highest-performing individual model achieved a micro F1 of 43 points, approaching the best performers on the simpler temporal-only precedence tasks. Feature-based and latent representation models each outperform the rule-based models, but their performance is complementary to one another. We apply a sieve-based architecture to capitalize on this lack of overlap, achieving a micro F1 score of 46 points.

Satellite connectivity is gaining increased attention as the demand for seamless internet access, especially in transportation and remote areas, continues to grow. For fast-moving objects such as aircraft, vehicles, or trains, satellite connectivity is critical due to their mobility and frequent presence in areas without terrestrial coverage. Maintaining reliable connectivity in these cases requires frequent switching between satellite beams, constellations, or orbits. To enhance user experience and address challenges like long switching times, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can analyze historical connectivity data and predict network quality at specific locations. This allows for proactive measures, such as network switching before connectivity issues arise. In this paper, we analyze a real dataset of communication between a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite and aircraft over multiple flights, using ML to predict signal quality. Our prediction model achieved an F1 score of 0.97 on the test data, demonstrating the accuracy of machine learning in predicting signal quality during flight. By enabling seamless broadband service, including roaming between different satellite constellations and providers, our model addresses the need for real-time predictions of signal quality. This approach can further be adapted to automate satellite and beam-switching mechanisms to improve overall communication efficiency. The model can also be retrained and applied to any moving object with satellite connectivity, using customized datasets, including connected vehicles and trains.

Why do neurons communicate through spikes? By definition, spikes are all-or-none neural events which occur at continuous times. In other words, spikes are on one side binary, existing or not without further details, and on the other can occur at any asynchronous time, without the need for a centralized clock. This stands in stark contrast to the analog representation of values and the discretized timing classically used in digital processing and at the base of modern-day neural networks. As neural systems almost systematically use this so-called event-based representation in the living world, a better understanding of this phenomenon remains a fundamental challenge in neurobiology in order to better interpret the profusion of recorded data. With the growing need for intelligent embedded systems, it also emerges as a new computing paradigm to enable the efficient operation of a new class of sensors and event-based computers, called neuromorphic, which could enable significant gains in computation time and energy consumption -- a major societal issue in the era of the digital economy and global warming. In this review paper, we provide evidence from biology, theory and engineering that the precise timing of spikes plays a crucial role in our understanding of the efficiency of neural networks.

We investigate causal computations taking sequences of inputs to sequences of outputs where the nth output depends on the first n inputs only. We model these in category theory via a construction taking a Cartesian category C to another category St(C) with a novel trace-like operation called "delayed trace", which misses yanking and dinaturality axioms of the usual trace. The delayed trace operation provides a feedback mechanism in St(C) with an implicit guardedness guarantee. When C is equipped with a Cartesian differential operator, we construct a differential operator for St(C) using an abstract version of backpropagation through time, a technique from machine learning based on unrolling of functions. This obtains a swath of properties for backpropagation through time, including a chain rule and Schwartz theorem. Our differential operator is also able to compute the derivative of a stateful network without requiring the network to be unrolled.

Ultra-high-energy neutrinos and cosmic rays are excellent probes of astroparticle physics phenomena. For astroparticle physics analyses, robust and accurate reconstruction of signal parameters such as arrival direction and energy is essential. Radio detection is an established detector concept explored by many observatories; however, current reconstruction methods ignore bin-to-bin noise correlations, which limits reconstruction resolution and, so far, has prevented calculations of event-by-event uncertainties. In this work, we present a likelihood description of neutrino or cosmic-ray signals in radio detectors with correlated noise, as present in all neutrino and cosmic-ray radio detectors. We demonstrate, with simulation studies of both neutrinos and cosmic-ray radio signals, that signal parameters such as energy and direction, including event-by-event uncertainties with correct coverage, can be obtained. This method reduces reconstruction uncertainties and biases compared to previous approaches. Additionally, the Likelihood can be used for event selection and enables differentiable end-to-end detector optimization. The reconstruction code is available through the open-source software NuRadioReco.

Automatic detection of phoneme or word-like units is one of the core objectives in zero-resource speech processing. Recent attempts employ self-supervised training methods, such as contrastive predictive coding (CPC), where the next frame is predicted given past context. However, CPC only looks at the audio signal's frame-level structure. We overcome this limitation with a segmental contrastive predictive coding (SCPC) framework that can model the signal structure at a higher level e.g. at the phoneme level. In this framework, a convolutional neural network learns frame-level representation from the raw waveform via noise-contrastive estimation (NCE). A differentiable boundary detector finds variable-length segments, which are then used to optimize a segment encoder via NCE to learn segment representations. The differentiable boundary detector allows us to train frame-level and segment-level encoders jointly. Typically, phoneme and word segmentation are treated as separate tasks. We unify them and experimentally show that our single model outperforms existing phoneme and word segmentation methods on TIMIT and Buckeye datasets. We analyze the impact of boundary threshold and when is the right time to include the segmental loss in the learning process.

Speech produced by human vocal apparatus conveys substantial non-semantic information including the gender of the speaker, voice quality, affective state, abnormalities in the vocal apparatus etc. Such information is attributed to the properties of the voice source signal, which is usually estimated from the speech signal. However, most of the source estimation techniques depend heavily on the goodness of the model assumptions and are prone to noise. A popular alternative is to indirectly obtain the source information through the Electroglottographic (EGG) signal that measures the electrical admittance around the vocal folds using dedicated hardware. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating the EGG signal directly from the speech signal, devoid of any hardware. Sampling from the intractable conditional distribution of the EGG signal given the speech signal is accomplished through optimization of an evidence lower bound. This is constructed via minimization of the KL-divergence between the true and the approximated posteriors of a latent variable learned using a deep neural auto-encoder that serves an informative prior. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method at generating the EGG signal by conducting several experiments on datasets comprising multiple speakers, voice qualities, noise settings and speech pathologies. The proposed method is evaluated on many benchmark metrics and is found to agree with the gold standard while proving better than the state-of-the-art algorithms on a few tasks such as epoch extraction.

Traditional time-series forecasting often focuses only on minimizing prediction errors, ignoring the specific requirements of real-world applications that employ them. This paper presents a new training methodology, which allows a forecasting model to dynamically adjust its focus based on the importance of forecast ranges specified by the end application. Unlike previous methods that fix these ranges beforehand, our training approach breaks down predictions over the entire signal range into smaller segments, which are then dynamically weighted and combined to produce accurate forecasts. We tested our method on standard datasets, including a new dataset from wireless communication, and found that not only it improves prediction accuracy but also improves the performance of end application employing the forecasting model. This research provides a basis for creating forecasting systems that better connect prediction and decision-making in various practical applications.

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based Self-Explainable Neural Networks (PSENNs), whose predictions rely on the similarity between the input at hand and a set of prototypical representations of the output classes, offering therefore a deep, yet transparent-by-design, architecture. So far, such models have been designed by considering pointwise estimates for the prototypes, which remain fixed after the learning phase of the model. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reformulation of PSENNs, called Prob-PSENN, which replaces point estimates for the prototypes with probability distributions over their values. This provides not only a more flexible framework for an end-to-end learning of prototypes, but can also capture the explanatory uncertainty of the model, which is a missing feature in previous approaches. In addition, since the prototypes determine both the explanation and the prediction, Prob-PSENNs allow us to detect when the model is making uninformed or uncertain predictions, and to obtain valid explanations for them. Our experiments demonstrate that Prob-PSENNs provide more meaningful and robust explanations than their non-probabilistic counterparts, thus enhancing the explainability and reliability of the models.

To mitigate the high inference latency stemming from autoregressive decoding in Large Language Models (LLMs), Speculative Decoding has emerged as a novel decoding paradigm for LLM inference. In each decoding step, this method first efficiently drafts several future tokens and then verifies them in parallel. Unlike autoregressive decoding, Speculative Decoding facilitates the simultaneous decoding of multiple tokens per step, thereby accelerating inference. This paper presents a comprehensive overview and analysis of this promising decoding paradigm. We begin by providing a formal definition and formulation of Speculative Decoding. Then, we organize in-depth discussions on its key facets, including current leading techniques, the challenges faced, and potential future directions in this field. We aim for this work to serve as a catalyst for further research on Speculative Decoding, ultimately contributing to more efficient LLM inference.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Open-weights reasoning language models generate long chains-of-thought (CoTs) before producing a final response, which improves performance but introduces additional alignment risks, with harmful content often appearing in both the CoTs and the final outputs. In this work, we investigate if we can use CoTs to predict final response misalignment. We evaluate a range of monitoring approaches, including humans, highly-capable large language models, and text classifiers, using either CoT text or activations. First, we find that a simple linear probe trained on CoT activations can significantly outperform all text-based methods in predicting whether a final response will be safe or unsafe. CoT texts are often unfaithful and can mislead humans and classifiers, while model latents (i.e., CoT activations) offer a more reliable predictive signal. Second, the probe makes accurate predictions before reasoning completes, achieving strong performance even when applied to early CoT segments. These findings generalize across model sizes, families, and safety benchmarks, suggesting that lightweight probes could enable real-time safety monitoring and early intervention during generation.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

We give an overview of recent developments in the modeling of radiowave propagation, based on machine learning algorithms. We identify the input and output specification and the architecture of the model as the main challenges associated with machine learning-driven propagation models. Relevant papers are discussed and categorized based on their approach to each of these challenges. Emphasis is given on presenting the prospects and open problems in this promising and rapidly evolving area.

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

Prompt engineering is crucial for deploying LLMs but is poorly understood mathematically. We formalize LLM systems as a class of discrete stochastic dynamical systems to explore prompt engineering through the lens of control theory. We investigate the reachable set of output token sequences R_y(mathbf x_0) for which there exists a control input sequence mathbf u for each mathbf y in R_y(mathbf x_0) that steers the LLM to output mathbf y from initial state sequence mathbf x_0. We offer analytic analysis on the limitations on the controllability of self-attention in terms of reachable set, where we prove an upper bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) as a function of the singular values of the parameter matrices. We present complementary empirical analysis on the controllability of a panel of LLMs, including Falcon-7b, Llama-7b, and Falcon-40b. Our results demonstrate a lower bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) w.r.t. initial state sequences mathbf x_0 sampled from the Wikitext dataset. We find that the correct next Wikitext token following sequence mathbf x_0 is reachable over 97% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. We also establish that the top 75 most likely next tokens, as estimated by the LLM itself, are reachable at least 85% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. Intriguingly, short prompt sequences can dramatically alter the likelihood of specific outputs, even making the least likely tokens become the most likely ones. This control-centric analysis of LLMs demonstrates the significant and poorly understood role of input sequences in steering output probabilities, offering a foundational perspective for enhancing language model system capabilities.

Deep learning has become an area of interest in most scientific areas, including physical sciences. Modern networks apply real-valued transformations on the data. Particularly, convolutions in convolutional neural networks discard phase information entirely. Many deterministic signals, such as seismic data or electrical signals, contain significant information in the phase of the signal. We explore complex-valued deep convolutional networks to leverage non-linear feature maps. Seismic data commonly has a lowcut filter applied, to attenuate noise from ocean waves and similar long wavelength contributions. Discarding the phase information leads to low-frequency aliasing analogous to the Nyquist-Shannon theorem for high frequencies. In non-stationary data, the phase content can stabilize training and improve the generalizability of neural networks. While it has been shown that phase content can be restored in deep neural networks, we show how including phase information in feature maps improves both training and inference from deterministic physical data. Furthermore, we show that the reduction of parameters in a complex network outperforms larger real-valued networks.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Web platforms, mobile applications, and connected sensing systems generate multivariate time series with states at multiple levels of granularity, from coarse regimes to fine-grained events. Effective segmentation in these settings requires integrating across granularities while supporting iterative refinement through sparse prompt signals, which provide a compact mechanism for injecting domain knowledge. Yet existing prompting approaches for time series segmentation operate only within local contexts, so the effect of a prompt quickly fades and cannot guide predictions across the entire sequence. To overcome this limitation, we propose MemPromptTSS, a framework for iterative multi-granularity segmentation that introduces persistent prompt memory. A memory encoder transforms prompts and their surrounding subsequences into memory tokens stored in a bank. This persistent memory enables each new prediction to condition not only on local cues but also on all prompts accumulated across iterations, ensuring their influence persists across the entire sequence. Experiments on six datasets covering wearable sensing and industrial monitoring show that MemPromptTSS achieves 23% and 85% accuracy improvements over the best baseline in single- and multi-granularity segmentation under single iteration inference, and provides stronger refinement in iterative inference with average per-iteration gains of 2.66 percentage points compared to 1.19 for PromptTSS. These results highlight the importance of persistent memory for prompt-guided segmentation, establishing MemPromptTSS as a practical and effective framework for real-world applications.

We consider the problem of predicting gene expressions from DNA sequences. A key challenge of this task is to find the regulatory elements that control gene expressions. Here, we introduce Seq2Exp, a Sequence to Expression network explicitly designed to discover and extract regulatory elements that drive target gene expression, enhancing the accuracy of the gene expression prediction. Our approach captures the causal relationship between epigenomic signals, DNA sequences and their associated regulatory elements. Specifically, we propose to decompose the epigenomic signals and the DNA sequence conditioned on the causal active regulatory elements, and apply an information bottleneck with the Beta distribution to combine their effects while filtering out non-causal components. Our experiments demonstrate that Seq2Exp outperforms existing baselines in gene expression prediction tasks and discovers influential regions compared to commonly used statistical methods for peak detection such as MACS3. The source code is released as part of the AIRS library (https://github.com/divelab/AIRS/).

Implicitly defined, continuous, differentiable signal representations parameterized by neural networks have emerged as a powerful paradigm, offering many possible benefits over conventional representations. However, current network architectures for such implicit neural representations are incapable of modeling signals with fine detail, and fail to represent a signal's spatial and temporal derivatives, despite the fact that these are essential to many physical signals defined implicitly as the solution to partial differential equations. We propose to leverage periodic activation functions for implicit neural representations and demonstrate that these networks, dubbed sinusoidal representation networks or Sirens, are ideally suited for representing complex natural signals and their derivatives. We analyze Siren activation statistics to propose a principled initialization scheme and demonstrate the representation of images, wavefields, video, sound, and their derivatives. Further, we show how Sirens can be leveraged to solve challenging boundary value problems, such as particular Eikonal equations (yielding signed distance functions), the Poisson equation, and the Helmholtz and wave equations. Lastly, we combine Sirens with hypernetworks to learn priors over the space of Siren functions.

Non-verbal signals in speech are encoded by prosody and carry information that ranges from conversation action to attitude and emotion. Despite its importance, the principles that govern prosodic structure are not yet adequately understood. This paper offers an analytical schema and a technological proof-of-concept for the categorization of prosodic signals and their association with meaning. The schema interprets surface-representations of multi-layered prosodic events. As a first step towards implementation, we present a classification process that disentangles prosodic phenomena of three orders. It relies on fine-tuning a pre-trained speech recognition model, enabling the simultaneous multi-class/multi-label detection. It generalizes over a large variety of spontaneous data, performing on a par with, or superior to, human annotation. In addition to a standardized formalization of prosody, disentangling prosodic patterns can direct a theory of communication and speech organization. A welcome by-product is an interpretation of prosody that will enhance speech- and language-related technologies.

Current event detection models under super-vised learning settings fail to transfer to newevent types. Few-shot learning has not beenexplored in event detection even though it al-lows a model to perform well with high gener-alization on new event types. In this work, weformulate event detection as a few-shot learn-ing problem to enable to extend event detec-tion to new event types. We propose two novelloss factors that matching examples in the sup-port set to provide more training signals to themodel. Moreover, these training signals can beapplied in many metric-based few-shot learn-ing models. Our extensive experiments on theACE-2005 dataset (under a few-shot learningsetting) show that the proposed method can im-prove the performance of few-shot learning

This paper reports the first brain-inspired large language model (BriLLM). This is a non-Transformer, non-GPT, non-traditional machine learning input-output controlled generative language model. The model is based on the Signal Fully-connected flowing (SiFu) definition on the directed graph in terms of the neural network, and has the interpretability of all nodes on the graph of the whole model, instead of the traditional machine learning model that only has limited interpretability at the input and output ends. In the language model scenario, the token is defined as a node in the graph. A randomly shaped or user-defined signal flow flows between nodes on the principle of "least resistance" along paths. The next token or node to be predicted or generated is the target of the signal flow. As a language model, BriLLM theoretically supports infinitely long n-gram models when the model size is independent of the input and predicted length of the model. The model's working signal flow provides the possibility of recall activation and innate multi-modal support similar to the cognitive patterns of the human brain. At present, we released the first BriLLM version in Chinese, with 4000 tokens, 32-dimensional node width, 16-token long sequence prediction ability, and language model prediction performance comparable to GPT-1. More computing power will help us explore the infinite possibilities depicted above.

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) methods, we propose a predictability-aware compression-decompression framework to reduce runtime, lower communication cost, and maintain prediction accuracy across diverse predictors. The core idea involves using a circular periodicity key matrix with orthogonality to capture underlying time series predictability during compression and to mitigate reconstruction errors during decompression by relaxing oversimplified data assumptions. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that the proposed framework is both time-efficient and scalable under a large number of channels. Extensive experiments on six datasets across various predictors demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior overall performance by jointly considering prediction accuracy and runtime, while maintaining strong compatibility with diverse predictors.

Counterfactual medical image generation enables clinicians to explore clinical hypotheses, such as predicting disease progression, facilitating their decision-making. While existing methods can generate visually plausible images from disease progression prompts, they produce silent predictions that lack interpretation to verify how the generation reflects the hypothesized progression -- a critical gap for medical applications that require traceable reasoning. In this paper, we propose Interpretable Counterfactual Generation (ICG), a novel task requiring the joint generation of counterfactual images that reflect the clinical hypothesis and interpretation texts that outline the visual changes induced by the hypothesis. To enable ICG, we present ICG-CXR, the first dataset pairing longitudinal medical images with hypothetical progression prompts and textual interpretations. We further introduce ProgEmu, an autoregressive model that unifies the generation of counterfactual images and textual interpretations. We demonstrate the superiority of ProgEmu in generating progression-aligned counterfactuals and interpretations, showing significant potential in enhancing clinical decision support and medical education. Project page: https://progemu.github.io.

Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) require a good model for the controlled process. In this paper I infer inductive biases about a physical system. I use these biases to derive a new neural network architecture that can model this real system that has noise and inertia. The main inductive biases exploited here are: the delayed impact of some inputs on the system and the separability between the temporal component and how the inputs interact to produce the output of a system. The inputs are independently delayed using shifted convolutional kernels. Feature interactions are modelled using a fully connected network that does not have access to temporal information. The available data and the problem setup allow the usage of Self Supervised Learning in order to train the models. The baseline architecture is an Attention based Reccurent network adapted to work with MPC like inputs. The proposed networks are faster, better at exploiting larger data volumes and are almost as good as baseline networks in terms of prediction performance. The proposed architecture family called Delay can be used in a real scenario to control systems with delayed responses with respect to its controls or inputs. Ablation studies show that the presence of delay kernels are vital to obtain any learning in proposed architecture. Code and some experimental data are available online.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We establish a new theoretical framework for learning under multi-class, instance-dependent label noise. This framework casts learning with label noise as a form of domain adaptation, in particular, domain adaptation under posterior drift. We introduce the concept of relative signal strength (RSS), a pointwise measure that quantifies the transferability from noisy to clean posterior. Using RSS, we establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the excess risk. Our theoretical findings support the simple Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM) principle, which minimizes empirical risk while ignoring label noise. Finally, we translate this theoretical insight into practice: by using NI-ERM to fit a linear classifier on top of a self-supervised feature extractor, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-N data challenge.

We present a novel prompt design for Large Language Models (LLMs) tailored to Asynchronous Time Series. Unlike regular time series, which assume values at evenly spaced time points, asynchronous time series consist of timestamped events occurring at irregular intervals, each described in natural language. Our approach effectively utilizes the rich natural language of event descriptions, allowing LLMs to benefit from their broad world knowledge for reasoning across different domains and tasks. This allows us to extend the scope of asynchronous time series analysis beyond forecasting to include tasks like anomaly detection and data imputation. We further introduce Stochastic Soft Prompting, a novel prompt-tuning mechanism that significantly improves model performance, outperforming existing fine-tuning methods such as QLoRA. Through extensive experiments on real world datasets, we demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across different tasks and datasets.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

This study examines the integration of Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) with Spiking Neural Networks (SNN). While CPC learns the predictive structure of data to generate meaningful representations, SNN mimics the computational processes of biological neural systems over time. In this study, the goal is to develop a predictive coding model with greater biological plausibility by processing inputs and outputs in a spike-based system. The proposed model was tested on the MNIST dataset and achieved a high classification rate in distinguishing positive sequential samples from non-sequential negative samples. The study demonstrates that CPC can be effectively combined with SNN, showing that an SNN trained for classification tasks can also function as an encoding mechanism. Project codes and detailed results can be accessed on our GitHub page: https://github.com/vnd-ogrenme/ongorusel-kodlama/tree/main/CPC_SNN

Heart disease remains a significant threat to human health. As a non-invasive diagnostic tool, the electrocardiogram (ECG) is one of the most widely used methods for cardiac screening. However, the scarcity of high-quality ECG data, driven by privacy concerns and limited medical resources, creates a pressing need for effective ECG signal generation. Existing approaches for generating ECG signals typically rely on small training datasets, lack comprehensive evaluation frameworks, and overlook potential applications beyond data augmentation. To address these challenges, we propose DiffuSETS, a novel framework capable of generating ECG signals with high semantic alignment and fidelity. DiffuSETS accepts various modalities of clinical text reports and patient-specific information as inputs, enabling the creation of clinically meaningful ECG signals. Additionally, to address the lack of standardized evaluation in ECG generation, we introduce a comprehensive benchmarking methodology to assess the effectiveness of generative models in this domain. Our model achieve excellent results in tests, proving its superiority in the task of ECG generation. Furthermore, we showcase its potential to mitigate data scarcity while exploring novel applications in cardiology education and medical knowledge discovery, highlighting the broader impact of our work.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable adaptability across domains beyond text, specifically electrocardiograms (ECGs). More specifically, there is a growing body of work exploring the task of generating text from a multi-channeled ECG and corresponding textual prompt. Current approaches typically involve pretraining an ECG-specific encoder with a self-supervised learning (SSL) objective and using the features output by the pretrained encoder to finetune a LLM for natural language generation (NLG). However, these methods are limited by 1) inefficiency from two-stage training and 2) interpretability challenges with encoder-generated features. To address these limitations, we introduce ECG-Byte, an adapted byte pair encoding (BPE) tokenizer pipeline for autoregressive language modeling of ECGs. This approach compresses and encodes ECG signals into tokens, enabling end-to-end LLM training by combining ECG and text tokens directly, while being much more interpretable since the ECG tokens can be directly mapped back to the original signal. Using ECG-Byte, we achieve competitive performance in NLG tasks in only half the time and ~48% of the data required by two-stage approaches.

Tabular biomedical data poses challenges in machine learning because it is often high-dimensional and typically low-sample-size (HDLSS). Previous research has attempted to address these challenges via local feature selection, but existing approaches often fail to achieve optimal performance due to their limitation in identifying globally important features and their susceptibility to the co-adaptation problem. In this paper, we propose ProtoGate, a prototype-based neural model for feature selection on HDLSS data. ProtoGate first selects instance-wise features via adaptively balancing global and local feature selection. Furthermore, ProtoGate employs a non-parametric prototype-based prediction mechanism to tackle the co-adaptation problem, ensuring the feature selection results and predictions are consistent with underlying data clusters. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate the performance and interpretability of ProtoGate on synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that ProtoGate generally outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy by a clear margin while providing high-fidelity feature selection and explainable predictions. Code is available at https://github.com/SilenceX12138/ProtoGate.

We present the data release and data reduction process for the Epoch 1 NIRCam observations for the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). These data consist of NIRCam imaging in six broadband filters (F115W, F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W and F444W) and one medium band filter (F410M) over four pointings, obtained in parallel with primary CEERS MIRI observations (Yang et al. in prep). We reduced the NIRCam imaging with the JWST Calibration Pipeline, with custom modifications and reduction steps designed to address additional features and challenges with the data. Here we provide a detailed description of each step in our reduction and a discussion of future expected improvements. Our reduction process includes corrections for known pre-launch issues such as 1/f noise, as well as in-flight issues including snowballs, wisps, and astrometric alignment. Many of our custom reduction processes were first developed with pre-launch simulated NIRCam imaging over the full 10 CEERS NIRCam pointings. We present a description of the creation and reduction of this simulated dataset in the Appendix. We provide mosaics of the real images in a public release, as well as our reduction scripts with detailed explanations to allow users to reproduce our final data products. These represent one of the first official public datasets released from the Directors Discretionary Early Release Science (DD-ERS) program.

Language models generate responses by producing a series of tokens in immediate succession: the (K+1)^{th} token is an outcome of manipulating K hidden vectors per layer, one vector per preceding token. What if instead we were to let the model manipulate say, K+10 hidden vectors, before it outputs the (K+1)^{th} token? We operationalize this idea by performing training and inference on language models with a (learnable) pause token, a sequence of which is appended to the input prefix. We then delay extracting the model's outputs until the last pause token is seen, thereby allowing the model to process extra computation before committing to an answer. We empirically evaluate pause-training on decoder-only models of 1B and 130M parameters with causal pretraining on C4, and on downstream tasks covering reasoning, question-answering, general understanding and fact recall. Our main finding is that inference-time delays show gains when the model is both pre-trained and finetuned with delays. For the 1B model, we witness gains on 8 of 9 tasks, most prominently, a gain of 18% EM score on the QA task of SQuAD, 8% on CommonSenseQA and 1% accuracy on the reasoning task of GSM8k. Our work raises a range of conceptual and practical future research questions on making delayed next-token prediction a widely applicable new paradigm.

This paper presents the results of a Neural Network (NN)-based search for short-duration gravitational-wave transients in data from the third observing run of LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA. The search targets unmodeled transients with durations of milliseconds to a few seconds in the 30-1500 Hz frequency band, without assumptions about the incoming signal direction, polarization, or morphology. Using the Gravitational Wave Anomalous Knowledge (GWAK) method, three compact binary coalescences (CBCs) identified by existing pipelines are successfully detected, along with a range of detector glitches. The algorithm constructs a low-dimensional embedded space to capture the physical features of signals, enabling the detection of CBCs, detector glitches, and unmodeled transients. This study demonstrates GWAK's ability to enhance gravitational-wave searches beyond the limits of existing pipelines, laying the groundwork for future detection strategies.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as an alternative to autoregressive approaches, offering parallel sequence generation and flexible token orders. However, their inference remains slower than that of autoregressive models, primarily due to the cost of bidirectional attention and the large number of refinement steps required for high quality outputs. In this work, we highlight and leverage an overlooked property of DLMs early answer convergence: in many cases, the correct answer can be internally identified by half steps before the final decoding step, both under semi-autoregressive and random remasking schedules. For example, on GSM8K and MMLU, up to 97% and 99% of instances, respectively, can be decoded correctly using only half of the refinement steps. Building on this observation, we introduce Prophet, a training-free fast decoding paradigm that enables early commit decoding. Specifically, Prophet dynamically decides whether to continue refinement or to go "all-in" (i.e., decode all remaining tokens in one step), using the confidence gap between the top-2 prediction candidates as the criterion. It integrates seamlessly into existing DLM implementations, incurs negligible overhead, and requires no additional training. Empirical evaluations of LLaDA-8B and Dream-7B across multiple tasks show that Prophet reduces the number of decoding steps by up to 3.4x while preserving high generation quality. These results recast DLM decoding as a problem of when to stop sampling, and demonstrate that early decode convergence provides a simple yet powerful mechanism for accelerating DLM inference, complementary to existing speedup techniques. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/pixeli99/Prophet.

Temporal graphs are widely used to model dynamic systems with time-varying interactions. In real-world scenarios, the underlying mechanisms of generating future interactions in dynamic systems are typically governed by a set of recurring substructures within the graph, known as temporal motifs. Despite the success and prevalence of current temporal graph neural networks (TGNN), it remains uncertain which temporal motifs are recognized as the significant indications that trigger a certain prediction from the model, which is a critical challenge for advancing the explainability and trustworthiness of current TGNNs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, called Temporal Motifs Explainer (TempME), which uncovers the most pivotal temporal motifs guiding the prediction of TGNNs. Derived from the information bottleneck principle, TempME extracts the most interaction-related motifs while minimizing the amount of contained information to preserve the sparsity and succinctness of the explanation. Events in the explanations generated by TempME are verified to be more spatiotemporally correlated than those of existing approaches, providing more understandable insights. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of TempME, with up to 8.21% increase in terms of explanation accuracy across six real-world datasets and up to 22.96% increase in boosting the prediction Average Precision of current TGNNs.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

Recently proposed self-supervised learning approaches have been successful for pre-training speech representation models. The utility of these learned representations has been observed empirically, but not much has been studied about the type or extent of information encoded in the pre-trained representations themselves. Developing such insights can help understand the capabilities and limits of these models and enable the research community to more efficiently develop their usage for downstream applications. In this work, we begin to fill this gap by examining one recent and successful pre-trained model (wav2vec 2.0), via its intermediate representation vectors, using a suite of analysis tools. We use the metrics of canonical correlation, mutual information, and performance on simple downstream tasks with non-parametric probes, in order to (i) query for acoustic and linguistic information content, (ii) characterize the evolution of information across model layers, and (iii) understand how fine-tuning the model for automatic speech recognition (ASR) affects these observations. Our findings motivate modifying the fine-tuning protocol for ASR, which produces improved word error rates in a low-resource setting.

In the present research, we delve into the intricate realm of electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis, focusing on sequence-to-sequence prediction of data across 32 EEG channels. The study harmoniously fuses the principles of applied chaos theory and dynamical systems theory to engender a novel feature set, enriching the representational capacity of our deep learning model. The endeavour's cornerstone is a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence architecture, calibrated meticulously to capture the non-linear and high-dimensional temporal dependencies inherent in EEG sequences. Through judicious architecture design, parameter initialisation strategies, and optimisation techniques, we have navigated the intricate balance between computational expediency and predictive performance. Our model stands as a vanguard in EEG data sequence prediction, demonstrating remarkable generalisability and robustness. The findings not only extend our understanding of EEG data dynamics but also unveil a potent analytical framework that can be adapted to diverse temporal sequence prediction tasks in neuroscience and beyond.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Semantic information refers to the meaning conveyed through words, phrases, and contextual relationships within a given linguistic structure. Humans can leverage semantic information, such as familiar linguistic patterns and contextual cues, to reconstruct incomplete or masked speech signals in noisy environments. However, existing speech enhancement (SE) approaches often overlook the rich semantic information embedded in speech, which is crucial for improving intelligibility, speaker consistency, and overall quality of enhanced speech signals. To enrich the SE model with semantic information, we employ language models as an efficient semantic learner and propose a comprehensive framework tailored for language model-based speech enhancement, called GenSE. Specifically, we approach SE as a conditional language modeling task rather than a continuous signal regression problem defined in existing works. This is achieved by tokenizing speech signals into semantic tokens using a pre-trained self-supervised model and into acoustic tokens using a custom-designed single-quantizer neural codec model. To improve the stability of language model predictions, we propose a hierarchical modeling method that decouples the generation of clean semantic tokens and clean acoustic tokens into two distinct stages. Moreover, we introduce a token chain prompting mechanism during the acoustic token generation stage to ensure timbre consistency throughout the speech enhancement process. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art SE systems in terms of speech quality and generalization capability.

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in the sequence updates a deductive database of facts (via domain-specific pattern-matching rules); future events are then conditioned on the database contents. They show how to convert such a symbolic system into a neuro-symbolic continuous-time generative model, in which each database fact and the possible event has a time-varying embedding that is derived from its symbolic provenance. In this paper, we modify both models, replacing their recurrent LSTM-based architectures with flatter attention-based architectures (Vaswani et al., 2017), which are simpler and more parallelizable. This does not appear to hurt our accuracy, which is comparable to or better than that of the original models as well as (where applicable) previous attention-based methods (Zuo et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020a).

Biological nervous systems are created in a fundamentally different way than current artificial neural networks. Despite its impressive results in a variety of different domains, deep learning often requires considerable engineering effort to design high-performing neural architectures. By contrast, biological nervous systems are grown through a dynamic self-organizing process. In this paper, we take initial steps toward neural networks that grow through a developmental process that mirrors key properties of embryonic development in biological organisms. The growth process is guided by another neural network, which we call a Neural Developmental Program (NDP) and which operates through local communication alone. We investigate the role of neural growth on different machine learning benchmarks and different optimization methods (evolutionary training, online RL, offline RL, and supervised learning). Additionally, we highlight future research directions and opportunities enabled by having self-organization driving the growth of neural networks.

Coincident multimessenger observations of cosmic sources can offer numerous benefits, especially when used in the context of synergistic astrophysics. One significant advantage is enhancing the detection significance of separate detectors by correlating their data and assuming joint emission. We have formulated an approach for updating the Bayesian posterior probability of an astrophysical origin, namely p_{rm astro}, relying on multimessenger coincidences assuming an emission model. The description is applicable to any combination of messengers. We demonstrated the formalism for the gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos case. Applying our method to the public data of candidate coincident high-energy neutrinos with subthreshold gravitational-wave triggers, we found that in the case of highly energetic neutrino coincidences, p_{rm astro} can increase from approximately sim 0.1 to sim 0.9. The amount of improvement depends on the assumed joint emission model. If models are trusted, the marked improvement makes subthreshold detections much more confident. Moreover, the model dependency can also be used to test the consistency of different models. This work is a crucial step toward the goal of uniting all detectors on equal footing into a statistically integrated, Earth-sized observatory for comprehensive multimessenger astrophysics.

Self-supervised learning is a promising paradigm in deep learning that enables learning from unlabeled data by constructing pretext tasks that require learning useful representations. In natural language processing, the dominant pretext task has been masked language modeling (MLM), while in computer vision there exists an equivalent called Masked Image Modeling (MIM). However, MIM is challenging because it requires predicting semantic content in accurate locations. E.g, given an incomplete picture of a dog, we can guess that there is a tail, but we cannot determine its exact location. In this work, we propose FlexPredict, a stochastic model that addresses this challenge by incorporating location uncertainty into the model. Specifically, we condition the model on stochastic masked token positions to guide the model toward learning features that are more robust to location uncertainties. Our approach improves downstream performance on a range of tasks, e.g, compared to MIM baselines, FlexPredict boosts ImageNet linear probing by 1.6% with ViT-B and by 2.5% for semi-supervised video segmentation using ViT-L.

Diffusion models have recently been shown to be relevant for high-quality speech generation. Most work has been focused on generating spectrograms, and as such, they further require a subsequent model to convert the spectrogram to a waveform (i.e., a vocoder). This work proposes a diffusion probabilistic end-to-end model for generating a raw speech waveform. The proposed model is autoregressive, generating overlapping frames sequentially, where each frame is conditioned on a portion of the previously generated one. Hence, our model can effectively synthesize an unlimited speech duration while preserving high-fidelity synthesis and temporal coherence. We implemented the proposed model for unconditional and conditional speech generation, where the latter can be driven by an input sequence of phonemes, amplitudes, and pitch values. Working on the waveform directly has some empirical advantages. Specifically, it allows the creation of local acoustic behaviors, like vocal fry, which makes the overall waveform sounds more natural. Furthermore, the proposed diffusion model is stochastic and not deterministic; therefore, each inference generates a slightly different waveform variation, enabling abundance of valid realizations. Experiments show that the proposed model generates speech with superior quality compared with other state-of-the-art neural speech generation systems.

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

Generating images from brain waves is gaining increasing attention due to its potential to advance brain-computer interface (BCI) systems by understanding how brain signals encode visual cues. Most of the literature has focused on fMRI-to-Image tasks as fMRI is characterized by high spatial resolution. However, fMRI is an expensive neuroimaging modality and does not allow for real-time BCI. On the other hand, electroencephalography (EEG) is a low-cost, non-invasive, and portable neuroimaging technique, making it an attractive option for future real-time applications. Nevertheless, EEG presents inherent challenges due to its low spatial resolution and susceptibility to noise and artifacts, which makes generating images from EEG more difficult. In this paper, we address these problems with a streamlined framework based on the ControlNet adapter for conditioning a latent diffusion model (LDM) through EEG signals. We conduct experiments and ablation studies on popular benchmarks to demonstrate that the proposed method beats other state-of-the-art models. Unlike these methods, which often require extensive preprocessing, pretraining, different losses, and captioning models, our approach is efficient and straightforward, requiring only minimal preprocessing and a few components. Code will be available after publication.

Inflation typically predicts a quasi scale-invariant spectrum of gravitational waves. In models of slow-roll inflation, the amplitude of such a background is too small to allow direct detection without a dedicated space-based experiment such as the proposed BBO or DECIGO. In this paper we note that particle production during inflation can generate a feature in the spectrum of primordial gravitational waves. We discuss the possibility that such a feature might be detected by ground-based laser interferometers such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, which will become operational in the next few years. We also discuss the prospects of detection by a space interferometer like LISA. We first study gravitational waves induced by nonperturbative, explosive particle production during inflation: while explosive production of scalar quanta does not generate a significant bump in the primordial tensor spectrum, production of vectors can. We also show that chiral gravitational waves produced by electromagnetic fields amplified by an axion-like inflaton could be detectable by Advanced LIGO.

An important problem in machine auditory perception is to recognize and detect sound events. In this paper, we propose a sequential self-teaching approach to learning sounds. Our main proposition is that it is harder to learn sounds in adverse situations such as from weakly labeled and/or noisy labeled data, and in these situations a single stage of learning is not sufficient. Our proposal is a sequential stage-wise learning process that improves generalization capabilities of a given modeling system. We justify this method via technical results and on Audioset, the largest sound events dataset, our sequential learning approach can lead to up to 9% improvement in performance. A comprehensive evaluation also shows that the method leads to improved transferability of knowledge from previously trained models, thereby leading to improved generalization capabilities on transfer learning tasks.

This work explores whether language models encode meaningfully grounded representations of sounds of objects. We learn a linear probe that retrieves the correct text representation of an object given a snippet of audio related to that object, where the sound representation is given by a pretrained audio model. This probe is trained via a contrastive loss that pushes the language representations and sound representations of an object to be close to one another. After training, the probe is tested on its ability to generalize to objects that were not seen during training. Across different language models and audio models, we find that the probe generalization is above chance in many cases, indicating that despite being trained only on raw text, language models encode grounded knowledge of sounds for some objects.

In the heart of "rhythm games" - games where players must perform actions in sync with a piece of music - are "charts", the directives to be given to players. We newly formulate chart generation as a sequence generation task and train a Transformer using a large dataset. We also introduce tempo-informed preprocessing and training procedures, some of which are suggested to be integral for a successful training. Our model is found to outperform the baselines on a large dataset, and is also found to benefit from pretraining and finetuning.

We introduce LMCodec, a causal neural speech codec that provides high quality audio at very low bitrates. The backbone of the system is a causal convolutional codec that encodes audio into a hierarchy of coarse-to-fine tokens using residual vector quantization. LMCodec trains a Transformer language model to predict the fine tokens from the coarse ones in a generative fashion, allowing for the transmission of fewer codes. A second Transformer predicts the uncertainty of the next codes given the past transmitted codes, and is used to perform conditional entropy coding. A MUSHRA subjective test was conducted and shows that the quality is comparable to reference codecs at higher bitrates. Example audio is available at https://mjenrungrot.github.io/chrome-media-audio-papers/publications/lmcodec.

Echocardiography (ECHO) is essential for cardiac assessments, but its video quality and interpretation heavily relies on manual expertise, leading to inconsistent results from clinical and portable devices. ECHO video generation offers a solution by improving automated monitoring through synthetic data and generating high-quality videos from routine health data. However, existing models often face high computational costs, slow inference, and rely on complex conditional prompts that require experts' annotations. To address these challenges, we propose ECHOPULSE, an ECG-conditioned ECHO video generation model. ECHOPULSE introduces two key advancements: (1) it accelerates ECHO video generation by leveraging VQ-VAE tokenization and masked visual token modeling for fast decoding, and (2) it conditions on readily accessible ECG signals, which are highly coherent with ECHO videos, bypassing complex conditional prompts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to use time-series prompts like ECG signals for ECHO video generation. ECHOPULSE not only enables controllable synthetic ECHO data generation but also provides updated cardiac function information for disease monitoring and prediction beyond ECG alone. Evaluations on three public and private datasets demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in ECHO video generation across both qualitative and quantitative measures. Additionally, ECHOPULSE can be easily generalized to other modality generation tasks, such as cardiac MRI, fMRI, and 3D CT generation. Demo can seen from https://github.com/levyisthebest/ECHOPulse_Prelease.

We introduce Delayed Streams Modeling (DSM), a flexible formulation for streaming, multimodal sequence-to-sequence learning. Sequence-to-sequence generation is often cast in an offline manner, where the model consumes the complete input sequence before generating the first output timestep. Alternatively, streaming sequence-to-sequence rely on learning a policy for choosing when to advance on the input stream, or write to the output stream. DSM instead models already time-aligned streams with a decoder-only language model. By moving the alignment to a pre-processing step,and introducing appropriate delays between streams, DSM provides streaming inference of arbitrary output sequences, from any input combination, making it applicable to many sequence-to-sequence problems. In particular, given text and audio streams, automatic speech recognition (ASR) corresponds to the text stream being delayed, while the opposite gives a text-to-speech (TTS) model. We perform extensive experiments for these two major sequence-to-sequence tasks, showing that DSM provides state-of-the-art performance and latency while supporting arbitrary long sequences, being even competitive with offline baselines. Code, samples and demos are available at https://github.com/kyutai-labs/delayed-streams-modeling

X-ray observing facilities, such as the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the eROSITA, have detected millions of astronomical sources associated with high-energy phenomena. The arrival of photons as a function of time follows a Poisson process and can vary by orders-of-magnitude, presenting obstacles for common tasks such as source classification, physical property derivation, and anomaly detection. Previous work has either failed to directly capture the Poisson nature of the data or only focuses on Poisson rate function reconstruction. In this work, we present Poisson Process AutoDecoder (PPAD). PPAD is a neural field decoder that maps fixed-length latent features to continuous Poisson rate functions across energy band and time via unsupervised learning. PPAD reconstructs the rate function and yields a representation at the same time. We demonstrate the efficacy of PPAD via reconstruction, regression, classification and anomaly detection experiments using the Chandra Source Catalog.

In-context learning is a powerful emergent ability in transformer models. Prior work in mechanistic interpretability has identified a circuit element that may be critical for in-context learning -- the induction head (IH), which performs a match-and-copy operation. During training of large transformers on natural language data, IHs emerge around the same time as a notable phase change in the loss. Despite the robust evidence for IHs and this interesting coincidence with the phase change, relatively little is known about the diversity and emergence dynamics of IHs. Why is there more than one IH, and how are they dependent on each other? Why do IHs appear all of a sudden, and what are the subcircuits that enable them to emerge? We answer these questions by studying IH emergence dynamics in a controlled setting by training on synthetic data. In doing so, we develop and share a novel optogenetics-inspired causal framework for modifying activations throughout training. Using this framework, we delineate the diverse and additive nature of IHs. By clamping subsets of activations throughout training, we then identify three underlying subcircuits that interact to drive IH formation, yielding the phase change. Furthermore, these subcircuits shed light on data-dependent properties of formation, such as phase change timing, already showing the promise of this more in-depth understanding of subcircuits that need to "go right" for an induction head.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Marmoset monkeys encode vital information in their calls and serve as a surrogate model for neuro-biologists to understand the evolutionary origins of human vocal communication. Traditionally analyzed with signal processing-based features, recent approaches have utilized self-supervised models pre-trained on human speech for feature extraction, capitalizing on their ability to learn a signal's intrinsic structure independently of its acoustic domain. However, the utility of such foundation models remains unclear for marmoset call analysis in terms of multi-class classification, bandwidth, and pre-training domain. This study assesses feature representations derived from speech and general audio domains, across pre-training bandwidths of 4, 8, and 16 kHz for marmoset call-type and caller classification tasks. Results show that models with higher bandwidth improve performance, and pre-training on speech or general audio yields comparable results, improving over a spectral baseline.

Autoencoders have been proposed as a powerful tool for model-independent anomaly detection in high-energy physics. The operating principle is that events which do not belong to the space of training data will be reconstructed poorly, thus flagging them as anomalies. We point out that in a variety of examples of interest, the connection between large reconstruction error and anomalies is not so clear. In particular, for data sets with nontrivial topology, there will always be points that erroneously seem anomalous due to global issues. Conversely, neural networks typically have an inductive bias or prior to locally interpolate such that undersampled or rare events may be reconstructed with small error, despite actually being the desired anomalies. Taken together, these facts are in tension with the simple picture of the autoencoder as an anomaly detector. Using a series of illustrative low-dimensional examples, we show explicitly how the intrinsic and extrinsic topology of the dataset affects the behavior of an autoencoder and how this topology is manifested in the latent space representation during training. We ground this analysis in the discussion of a mock "bump hunt" in which the autoencoder fails to identify an anomalous "signal" for reasons tied to the intrinsic topology of n-particle phase space.

Diffusion models have quickly risen in popularity for their ability to model complex distributions and perform effective posterior sampling. Unfortunately, the iterative nature of these generative models makes them computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time sequential inverse problems such as ultrasound imaging. Considering the strong temporal structure across sequences of frames, we propose a novel approach that models the transition dynamics to improve the efficiency of sequential diffusion posterior sampling in conditional image synthesis. Through modeling sequence data using a video vision transformer (ViViT) transition model based on previous diffusion outputs, we can initialize the reverse diffusion trajectory at a lower noise scale, greatly reducing the number of iterations required for convergence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real-world dataset of high frame rate cardiac ultrasound images and show that it achieves the same performance as a full diffusion trajectory while accelerating inference 25times, enabling real-time posterior sampling. Furthermore, we show that the addition of a transition model improves the PSNR up to 8\% in cases with severe motion. Our method opens up new possibilities for real-time applications of diffusion models in imaging and other domains requiring real-time inference.

Self-supervised learning has emerged as a highly effective approach in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision. It is also applicable to brain signals such as electroencephalography (EEG) data, given the abundance of available unlabeled data that exist in a wide spectrum of real-world medical applications ranging from seizure detection to wave analysis. The existing works leveraging self-supervised learning on EEG modeling mainly focus on pretraining upon each individual dataset corresponding to a single downstream task, which cannot leverage the power of abundant data, and they may derive sub-optimal solutions with a lack of generalization. Moreover, these methods rely on end-to-end model learning which is not easy for humans to understand. In this paper, we present a novel EEG foundation model, namely EEGFormer, pretrained on large-scale compound EEG data. The pretrained model cannot only learn universal representations on EEG signals with adaptable performance on various downstream tasks but also provide interpretable outcomes of the useful patterns within the data. To validate the effectiveness of our model, we extensively evaluate it on various downstream tasks and assess the performance under different transfer settings. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the learned model exhibits transferable anomaly detection performance and provides valuable interpretability of the acquired patterns via self-supervised learning.

Discrete event sequences are ubiquitous, such as an ordered event series of process interactions in Information and Communication Technology systems. Recent years have witnessed increasing efforts in detecting anomalies with discrete-event sequences. However, it still remains an extremely difficult task due to several intrinsic challenges including data imbalance issues, the discrete property of the events, and sequential nature of the data. To address these challenges, in this paper, we propose OC4Seq, a multi-scale one-class recurrent neural network for detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences. Specifically, OC4Seq integrates the anomaly detection objective with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to embed the discrete event sequences into latent spaces, where anomalies can be easily detected. In addition, given that an anomalous sequence could be caused by either individual events, subsequences of events, or the whole sequence, we design a multi-scale RNN framework to capture different levels of sequential patterns simultaneously. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets show that OC4Seq consistently outperforms various representative baselines by a large margin. Moreover, through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, the importance of capturing multi-scale sequential patterns for event anomaly detection is verified.

One puzzling artifact in machine learning dubbed grokking is where delayed generalization is achieved tenfolds of iterations after near perfect overfitting to the training data. Focusing on the long delay itself on behalf of machine learning practitioners, our goal is to accelerate generalization of a model under grokking phenomenon. By regarding a series of gradients of a parameter over training iterations as a random signal over time, we can spectrally decompose the parameter trajectories under gradient descent into two components: the fast-varying, overfitting-yielding component and the slow-varying, generalization-inducing component. This analysis allows us to accelerate the grokking phenomenon more than times 50 with only a few lines of code that amplifies the slow-varying components of gradients. The experiments show that our algorithm applies to diverse tasks involving images, languages, and graphs, enabling practical availability of this peculiar artifact of sudden generalization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ironjr/grokfast.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

As the number of seismic sensors grows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for analysts to pick seismic phases manually and comprehensively, yet such efforts are fundamental to earthquake monitoring. Despite years of improvements in automatic phase picking, it is difficult to match the performance of experienced analysts. A more subtle issue is that different seismic analysts may pick phases differently, which can introduce bias into earthquake locations. We present a deep-neural-network-based arrival-time picking method called "PhaseNet" that picks the arrival times of both P and S waves. Deep neural networks have recently made rapid progress in feature learning, and with sufficient training, have achieved super-human performance in many applications. PhaseNet uses three-component seismic waveforms as input and generates probability distributions of P arrivals, S arrivals, and noise as output. We engineer PhaseNet such that peaks in probability provide accurate arrival times for both P and S waves, and have the potential to increase the number of S-wave observations dramatically over what is currently available. This will enable both improved locations and improved shear wave velocity models. PhaseNet is trained on the prodigious available data set provided by analyst-labeled P and S arrival times from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The dataset we use contains more than seven million waveform samples extracted from over thirty years of earthquake recordings. We demonstrate that PhaseNet achieves much higher picking accuracy and recall rate than existing methods.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

Protolanguage reconstruction is central to historical linguistics. The comparative method, one of the most influential theoretical and methodological frameworks in the history of the language sciences, allows linguists to infer protoforms (reconstructed ancestral words) from their reflexes (related modern words) based on the assumption of regular sound change. Not surprisingly, numerous computational linguists have attempted to operationalize comparative reconstruction through various computational models, the most successful of which have been supervised encoder-decoder models, which treat the problem of predicting protoforms given sets of reflexes as a sequence-to-sequence problem. We argue that this framework ignores one of the most important aspects of the comparative method: not only should protoforms be inferable from cognate sets (sets of related reflexes) but the reflexes should also be inferable from the protoforms. Leveraging another line of research -- reflex prediction -- we propose a system in which candidate protoforms from a reconstruction model are reranked by a reflex prediction model. We show that this more complete implementation of the comparative method allows us to surpass state-of-the-art protoform reconstruction methods on three of four Chinese and Romance datasets.

Foundation models are reshaping EEG analysis, yet an important problem of EEG tokenization remains a challenge. This paper presents TFM-Tokenizer, a novel tokenization framework that learns a vocabulary of time-frequency motifs from single-channel EEG signals and encodes them into discrete tokens. We propose a dual-path architecture with time-frequency masking to capture robust motif representations, and it is model-agnostic, supporting both lightweight transformers and existing foundation models for downstream tasks. Our study demonstrates three key benefits: Accuracy: Experiments on four diverse EEG benchmarks demonstrate consistent performance gains across both single- and multi-dataset pretraining settings, achieving up to 17% improvement in Cohen's Kappa over strong baselines. Generalization: Moreover, as a plug-and-play component, it consistently boosts the performance of diverse foundation models, including BIOT and LaBraM. Scalability: By operating at the single-channel level rather than relying on the strict 10-20 EEG system, our method has the potential to be device-agnostic. Experiments on ear-EEG sleep staging, which differs from the pretraining data in signal format, channel configuration, recording device, and task, show that our tokenizer outperforms baselines by 14%. A comprehensive token analysis reveals strong class-discriminative, frequency-aware, and consistent structure, enabling improved representation quality and interpretability. Code is available at https://github.com/Jathurshan0330/TFM-Tokenizer.

On-board processing of hyperspectral data with machine learning models would enable unprecedented amount of autonomy for a wide range of tasks, for example methane detection or mineral identification. This can enable early warning system and could allow new capabilities such as automated scheduling across constellations of satellites. Classical methods suffer from high false positive rates and previous deep learning models exhibit prohibitive computational requirements. We propose fast and accurate machine learning architectures which support end-to-end training with data of high spectral dimension without relying on hand-crafted products or spectral band compression preprocessing. We evaluate our models on two tasks related to hyperspectral data processing. With our proposed general architectures, we improve the F1 score of the previous methane detection state-of-the-art models by 27% on a newly created synthetic dataset and by 13% on the previously released large benchmark dataset. We also demonstrate that training models on the synthetic dataset improves performance of models finetuned on the dataset of real events by 6.9% in F1 score in contrast with training from scratch. On a newly created dataset for mineral identification, our models provide 3.5% improvement in the F1 score in contrast to the default versions of the models. With our proposed models we improve the inference speed by 85% in contrast to previous classical and deep learning approaches by removing the dependency on classically computed features. With our architecture, one capture from the EMIT sensor can be processed within 30 seconds on realistic proxy of the ION-SCV 004 satellite.

Extensive LLM applications demand efficient structured generations, particularly for LR(1) grammars, to produce outputs in specified formats (e.g., JSON). Existing methods primarily parse LR(1) grammars into a pushdown automaton (PDA), leading to runtime execution overhead for context-dependent token processing, especially inefficient under large inference batches. To address these issues, we propose Pre^3 that exploits deterministic pushdown automata (DPDA) to optimize the constrained LLM decoding efficiency. First, by precomputing prefix-conditioned edges during the preprocessing, Pre^3 enables ahead-of-time edge analysis and thus makes parallel transition processing possible. Second, by leveraging the prefix-conditioned edges, Pre^3 introduces a novel approach that transforms LR(1) transition graphs into DPDA, eliminating the need for runtime path exploration and achieving edge transitions with minimal overhead. Pre^3 can be seamlessly integrated into standard LLM inference frameworks, reducing time per output token (TPOT) by up to 40% and increasing throughput by up to 36% in our experiments. Our code is available at https://github.com/ModelTC/lightllm.

Echocardiography is crucial for cardiovascular disease detection but relies heavily on experienced sonographers. Echocardiography probe guidance systems, which provide real-time movement instructions for acquiring standard plane images, offer a promising solution for AI-assisted or fully autonomous scanning. However, developing effective machine learning models for this task remains challenging, as they must grasp heart anatomy and the intricate interplay between probe motion and visual signals. To address this, we present EchoWorld, a motion-aware world modeling framework for probe guidance that encodes anatomical knowledge and motion-induced visual dynamics, while effectively leveraging past visual-motion sequences to enhance guidance precision. EchoWorld employs a pre-training strategy inspired by world modeling principles, where the model predicts masked anatomical regions and simulates the visual outcomes of probe adjustments. Built upon this pre-trained model, we introduce a motion-aware attention mechanism in the fine-tuning stage that effectively integrates historical visual-motion data, enabling precise and adaptive probe guidance. Trained on more than one million ultrasound images from over 200 routine scans, EchoWorld effectively captures key echocardiographic knowledge, as validated by qualitative analysis. Moreover, our method significantly reduces guidance errors compared to existing visual backbones and guidance frameworks, excelling in both single-frame and sequential evaluation protocols. Code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/EchoWorld.

Understanding when the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) affects generalization of deep neural networks remains a challenge, complicated by the fact that networks can operate in distinct training regimes. Here we study how the magnitude of this noise T affects performance as the size of the training set P and the scale of initialization alpha are varied. For gradient descent, alpha is a key parameter that controls if the network is `lazy'(alphagg1) or instead learns features (alphall1). For classification of MNIST and CIFAR10 images, our central results are: (i) obtaining phase diagrams for performance in the (alpha,T) plane. They show that SGD noise can be detrimental or instead useful depending on the training regime. Moreover, although increasing T or decreasing alpha both allow the net to escape the lazy regime, these changes can have opposite effects on performance. (ii) Most importantly, we find that the characteristic temperature T_c where the noise of SGD starts affecting the trained model (and eventually performance) is a power law of P. We relate this finding with the observation that key dynamical quantities, such as the total variation of weights during training, depend on both T and P as power laws. These results indicate that a key effect of SGD noise occurs late in training by affecting the stopping process whereby all data are fitted. Indeed, we argue that due to SGD noise, nets must develop a stronger `signal', i.e. larger informative weights, to fit the data, leading to a longer training time. A stronger signal and a longer training time are also required when the size of the training set P increases. We confirm these views in the perceptron model, where signal and noise can be precisely measured. Interestingly, exponents characterizing the effect of SGD depend on the density of data near the decision boundary, as we explain.

Attention-based Transformer models have been increasingly employed for automatic music generation. To condition the generation process of such a model with a user-specified sequence, a popular approach is to take that conditioning sequence as a priming sequence and ask a Transformer decoder to generate a continuation. However, this prompt-based conditioning cannot guarantee that the conditioning sequence would develop or even simply repeat itself in the generated continuation. In this paper, we propose an alternative conditioning approach, called theme-based conditioning, that explicitly trains the Transformer to treat the conditioning sequence as a thematic material that has to manifest itself multiple times in its generation result. This is achieved with two main technical contributions. First, we propose a deep learning-based approach that uses contrastive representation learning and clustering to automatically retrieve thematic materials from music pieces in the training data. Second, we propose a novel gated parallel attention module to be used in a sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) encoder/decoder architecture to more effectively account for a given conditioning thematic material in the generation process of the Transformer decoder. We report on objective and subjective evaluations of variants of the proposed Theme Transformer and the conventional prompt-based baseline, showing that our best model can generate, to some extent, polyphonic pop piano music with repetition and plausible variations of a given condition.

There is a bias in the inference pipeline of most diffusion models. This bias arises from a signal leak whose distribution deviates from the noise distribution, creating a discrepancy between training and inference processes. We demonstrate that this signal-leak bias is particularly significant when models are tuned to a specific style, causing sub-optimal style matching. Recent research tries to avoid the signal leakage during training. We instead show how we can exploit this signal-leak bias in existing diffusion models to allow more control over the generated images. This enables us to generate images with more varied brightness, and images that better match a desired style or color. By modeling the distribution of the signal leak in the spatial frequency and pixel domains, and including a signal leak in the initial latent, we generate images that better match expected results without any additional training.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

The static synaptic connectivity of neuronal circuits stands in direct contrast to the dynamics of their function. As in changing community interactions, different neurons can participate actively in various combinations to effect behaviors at different times. We introduce an unsupervised approach to learn the dynamic affinities between neurons in live, behaving animals, and to reveal which communities form among neurons at different times. The inference occurs in two major steps. First, pairwise non-linear affinities between neuronal traces from brain-wide calcium activity are organized by non-negative tensor factorization (NTF). Each factor specifies which groups of neurons are most likely interacting for an inferred interval in time, and for which animals. Finally, a generative model that allows for weighted community detection is applied to the functional motifs produced by NTF to reveal a dynamic functional connectome. Since time codes the different experimental variables (e.g., application of chemical stimuli), this provides an atlas of neural motifs active during separate stages of an experiment (e.g., stimulus application or spontaneous behaviors). Results from our analysis are experimentally validated, confirming that our method is able to robustly predict causal interactions between neurons to generate behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/dyballa/dynamic-connectomes.

In this paper, we propose to unify the two aspects of voice synthesis, namely text-to-speech (TTS) and vocoder, into one framework based on a pair of forward and reverse-time linear stochastic differential equations (SDE). The solutions of this SDE pair are two stochastic processes, one of which turns the distribution of mel spectrogram (or wave), that we want to generate, into a simple and tractable distribution. The other is the generation procedure that turns this tractable simple signal into the target mel spectrogram (or wave). The model that generates mel spectrogram is called It\^oTTS, and the model that generates wave is called It\^oWave. It\^oTTS and It\^oWave use the Wiener process as a driver to gradually subtract the excess signal from the noise signal to generate realistic corresponding meaningful mel spectrogram and audio respectively, under the conditional inputs of original text or mel spectrogram. The results of the experiment show that the mean opinion scores (MOS) of It\^oTTS and It\^oWave can exceed the current state-of-the-art methods, and reached 3.925pm0.160 and 4.35pm0.115 respectively. The generated audio samples are available at https://wushoule.github.io/ItoAudio/. All authors contribute equally to this work.

Popular guidance for denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) linearly combines distinct conditional models together to provide enhanced control over samples. However, this approach overlooks nonlinear effects that become significant when guidance scale is large. To address this issue, we propose characteristic guidance, a guidance method that provides first-principle non-linear correction for classifier-free guidance. Such correction forces the guided DDPMs to respect the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation of diffusion process, in a way that is training-free and compatible with existing sampling methods. Experiments show that characteristic guidance enhances semantic characteristics of prompts and mitigate irregularities in image generation, proving effective in diverse applications ranging from simulating magnet phase transitions to latent space sampling.

As we show in this paper, the prediction for output token n+1 of Transformer architectures without one of the mechanisms of positional encodings and causal attention is invariant to permutations of input tokens 1, 2, ..., n-1. Usually, both mechanisms are employed and the symmetry with respect to the input tokens is broken. Recently, it has been shown that one can train Transformers without positional encodings. This must be enabled by the causal attention mechanism. In this paper, we elaborate on the argument that the causal connection mechanism must be responsible for the fact that Transformers are able to model input sequences where the order is important. Vertical "slices" of Transformers are all encouraged to represent the same location k in the input sequence. We hypothesize that residual connections contribute to this phenomenon, and demonstrate evidence for this.

Electrocardiography plays a central role in cardiovascular diagnostics, yet existing automated approaches often struggle to generalize across clinical tasks and offer limited support for open-ended reasoning. We present DiagECG, a novel framework that integrates time-series and language modeling by enabling large language models to process 12-lead ECG signals for clinical text generation tasks. Our approach discretizes continuous ECG embeddings into symbolic tokens using a lead-independent encoder and quantization module. These tokens are then used to extend the vocabulary of LLM, allowing the model to handle both ECG and natural language inputs in a unified manner. To bridge the modality gap, we pretrain the model on an autoregressive ECG forecasting task, enabling the LLM to model temporal dynamics using its native language modeling capabilities. Finally, we perform instruction tuning on both ECG question answering and diagnostic report generation. Without modifying the core model, DiagECG achieves strong performance across tasks while maintaining generalization to out-of-distribution settings. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of each component and highlight the potential of integrating symbolic ECG representations into LLMs for medical reasoning.

Predicting and anticipating future outcomes or reasoning about missing information in a sequence are critical skills for agents to be able to make intelligent decisions. This requires strong, temporally coherent generative capabilities. Diffusion models have shown remarkable success in several generative tasks, but have not been extensively explored in the video domain. We present Random-Mask Video Diffusion (RaMViD), which extends image diffusion models to videos using 3D convolutions, and introduces a new conditioning technique during training. By varying the mask we condition on, the model is able to perform video prediction, infilling, and upsampling. Due to our simple conditioning scheme, we can utilize the same architecture as used for unconditional training, which allows us to train the model in a conditional and unconditional fashion at the same time. We evaluate RaMViD on two benchmark datasets for video prediction, on which we achieve state-of-the-art results, and one for video generation. High-resolution videos are provided at https://sites.google.com/view/video-diffusion-prediction.

Prototypical part network (ProtoPNet) methods have been designed to achieve interpretable classification by associating predictions with a set of training prototypes, which we refer to as trivial prototypes because they are trained to lie far from the classification boundary in the feature space. Note that it is possible to make an analogy between ProtoPNet and support vector machine (SVM) given that the classification from both methods relies on computing similarity with a set of training points (i.e., trivial prototypes in ProtoPNet, and support vectors in SVM). However, while trivial prototypes are located far from the classification boundary, support vectors are located close to this boundary, and we argue that this discrepancy with the well-established SVM theory can result in ProtoPNet models with inferior classification accuracy. In this paper, we aim to improve the classification of ProtoPNet with a new method to learn support prototypes that lie near the classification boundary in the feature space, as suggested by the SVM theory. In addition, we target the improvement of classification results with a new model, named ST-ProtoPNet, which exploits our support prototypes and the trivial prototypes to provide more effective classification. Experimental results on CUB-200-2011, Stanford Cars, and Stanford Dogs datasets demonstrate that ST-ProtoPNet achieves state-of-the-art classification accuracy and interpretability results. We also show that the proposed support prototypes tend to be better localised in the object of interest rather than in the background region.

Causal decoder-only transformer models used for generative language modelling, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT), are trained to predict the next token in a sequence based only on its previous tokens. Despite this simple training objective, they have proved to be powerful AI tools. However, only predicting the next token results in top layer embedding vectors that are highly token-focused. There may be benefits in generating embedding vectors at each token position that better capture the overall meaning of longer sequences of future text. Recent studies matching brain scans with deep language models suggest that humans also predict upcoming words when listening or reading but consider multiple future tokens rather than just one. This research investigates a new pretraining method called Future Token Prediction (FTP). In FTP, a large transformer encoder generates top layer embedding vectors for each token position, which, instead of being passed to a language head, are linearly and expansively projected to a pseudo-sequence, which is cross attended to by a small transformer decoder to predict the next N tokens forward from that position in the sequence. The top layer embedding vectors from FTP models exhibit distinct properties compared to those from standard GPT models, varying smoothly along a text sequence as measured by cosine similarity between adjacent tokens. Text generated by FTP models show improved topic coherence compared to standard GPT-like models trained with the same prediction perplexity for the next single token. The vectors are shown to better represent the topic of text based on the results of text classification examples. On a toy, but complex, coding problem, FTP networks produce significantly better results than GPT networks.

"Sure, I am happy to generate a story for you: Captain Lyra stood at the helm of her trusty ship, the Maelstrom's Fury, gazing out at the endless sea. [...] Lyra's eyes welled up with tears as she realized the bitter truth - she had sacrificed everything for fleeting riches, and lost the love of her crew, her family, and herself." Although this story, generated by a large language model, is captivating, one may wonder -- how would the story have unfolded if the model had chosen "Captain Maeve" as the protagonist instead? We cannot know. State-of-the-art large language models are stateless -- they maintain no internal memory or state. Given a prompt, they generate a sequence of tokens as an output using an autoregressive process. As a consequence, they cannot reason about counterfactual alternatives to tokens they have generated in the past. In this work, our goal is to enhance them with this functionality. To this end, we develop a causal model of token generation that builds upon the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Our model allows any large language model to perform counterfactual token generation at almost no cost in comparison with vanilla token generation, it is embarrassingly simple to implement, and it does not require any fine-tuning nor prompt engineering. We implement our model on Llama 3 8B-Instruct and Ministral-8B-Instruct and conduct a qualitative and a quantitative analysis of counterfactually generated text. We conclude with a demonstrative application of counterfactual token generation for bias detection, unveiling interesting insights about the model of the world constructed by large language models.

We explore a minimal scenario where the sole Standard-Model Higgs is responsible for reheating the Universe after inflation, produces a significant background of gravitational waves and maintains the full classical stability of the electroweak vacuum. As the Higgs self-coupling runs toward negative values at high energy scales, a non-minimal interaction with curvature during a stiff background expansion era drives the Higgs fluctuations closer to the instability scale. This curvature-induced tachyonic instability leads to an intense production of Higgs particles, accompanied by a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The characteristic features of such signal can be directly correlated to the inflationary scale, the non-minimal coupling parameter and the top quark Yukawa coupling. We distinguish between three possible scenarios: absolute stability with low top quark masses, potential vacuum instability, and absolute stability with new physics above the instability scale. Our findings suggest that the detection of a peaked background of gravitational waves together with its inflationary tail has the potential to unveil the features of the Higgs effective potential at very high energy scales while providing a minimal explanation for the reheating phase and the emergence of the Standard-Model plasma in the early Universe. Unlike other studies in the literature, the generation of gravitational waves in our scenario does not depend on the quantum instability of the Standard Model vacuum.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

In this study, we examine the efficacy of post-hoc local attribution methods in identifying features with predictive power from irrelevant ones in domains characterized by a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), a common scenario in real-world machine learning applications. We developed synthetic datasets encompassing symbolic functional, image, and audio data, incorporating a benchmark on the {\it (Model \(\times\) Attribution\(\times\) Noise Condition)} triplet. By rigorously testing various classic models trained from scratch, we gained valuable insights into the performance of these attribution methods in multiple conditions. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel extension to the notable recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm, enhancing its applicability for neural networks. Our experiments highlight its strengths in prediction and feature selection, alongside limitations in scalability. Further details and additional minor findings are included in the appendix, with extensive discussions. The codes and resources are available at https://github.com/geshijoker/ChaosMining/{URL}.

We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.

Generating temporal data under conditions is crucial for forecasting, imputation, and generative tasks. Such data often has metadata and partially observed signals that jointly influence the generated values. However, existing methods face three key limitations: (1) they condition on either the metadata or observed values, but rarely both together; (2) they adopt either training-time approaches that fail to generalize to unseen scenarios, or inference-time approaches that ignore metadata; and (3) they suffer from trade-offs between generation speed and temporal coherence across time windows--choosing either slow but coherent autoregressive methods or fast but incoherent parallel ones. We propose WaveStitch, a novel diffusion-based method to overcome these hurdles through: (1) dual-sourced conditioning on both metadata and partially observed signals; (2) a hybrid training-inference architecture, incorporating metadata during training and observations at inference via gradient-based guidance; and (3) a novel pipeline-style paradigm that generates time windows in parallel while preserving coherence through an inference-time conditional loss and a stitching mechanism. Across diverse datasets, WaveStitch demonstrates adaptability to arbitrary patterns of observed signals, achieving 1.81x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art, and generates data up to 166.48x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining coherence. Our code is available at: https://github.com/adis98/WaveStitch

A pre-trained visual-language model, contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP), successfully accomplishes various downstream tasks with text prompts, such as finding images or localizing regions within the image. Despite CLIP's strong multi-modal data capabilities, it remains limited in specialized environments, such as medical applications. For this purpose, many CLIP variants-i.e., BioMedCLIP, and MedCLIP-SAMv2-have emerged, but false positives related to normal regions persist. Thus, we aim to present a simple yet important goal of reducing false positives in medical anomaly detection. We introduce a Contrastive LAnguage Prompting (CLAP) method that leverages both positive and negative text prompts. This straightforward approach identifies potential lesion regions by visual attention to the positive prompts in the given image. To reduce false positives, we attenuate attention on normal regions using negative prompts. Extensive experiments with the BMAD dataset, including six biomedical benchmarks, demonstrate that CLAP method enhances anomaly detection performance. Our future plans include developing an automated fine prompting method for more practical usage.

Self-supervised learning methods overcome the key bottleneck for building more capable AI: limited availability of labeled data. However, one of the drawbacks of self-supervised architectures is that the representations that they learn are implicit and it is hard to extract meaningful information about the encoded world states, such as 3D structure of the visual scene encoded in a depth map. Moreover, in the visual domain such representations only rarely undergo evaluations that may be critical for downstream tasks, such as vision for autonomous cars. Herein, we propose a framework for evaluating visual representations for illumination invariance in the context of depth perception. We develop a new predictive coding-based architecture and a hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method. We propose a novel architecture that extends the predictive coding approach: PRedictive Lateral bottom-Up and top-Down Encoder-decoder Network (PreludeNet), which explicitly learns to infer and predict depth from video frames. In PreludeNet, the encoder's stack of predictive coding layers is trained in a self-supervised manner, while the predictive decoder is trained in a supervised manner to infer or predict the depth. We evaluate the robustness of our model on a new synthetic dataset, in which lighting conditions (such as overall illumination, and effect of shadows) can be be parametrically adjusted while keeping all other aspects of the world constant. PreludeNet achieves both competitive depth inference performance and next frame prediction accuracy. We also show how this new network architecture, coupled with the hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method, achieves balance between the said performance and invariance to changes in lighting. The proposed framework for evaluating visual representations can be extended to diverse task domains and invariance tests.

This study assesses deep learning models for audio classification in a clinical setting with the constraint of small datasets reflecting real-world prospective data collection. We analyze CNNs, including DenseNet and ConvNeXt, alongside transformer models like ViT, SWIN, and AST, and compare them against pre-trained audio models such as YAMNet and VGGish. Our method highlights the benefits of pre-training on large datasets before fine-tuning on specific clinical data. We prospectively collected two first-of-their-kind patient audio datasets from stroke patients. We investigated various preprocessing techniques, finding that RGB and grayscale spectrogram transformations affect model performance differently based on the priors they learn from pre-training. Our findings indicate CNNs can match or exceed transformer models in small dataset contexts, with DenseNet-Contrastive and AST models showing notable performance. This study highlights the significance of incremental marginal gains through model selection, pre-training, and preprocessing in sound classification; this offers valuable insights for clinical diagnostics that rely on audio classification.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

It is known that human speech and certain animal vocalizations can convey meaningful content because we can decipher the content that a given utterance does convey. This paper explores an alternative approach to determining whether a signal is meaningful, one that analyzes only the signal itself and is independent of what the conveyed meaning might be. We devise a method that takes a waveform as input and outputs a score indicating its degree of `meaningfulness`. We cluster contiguous portions of the input to minimize the total description length, and then take the length of the code of the assigned cluster labels as meaningfulness score. We evaluate our method empirically, against several baselines, and show that it is the only one to give a high score to human speech in various languages and with various speakers, a moderate score to animal vocalizations from birds and orcas, and a low score to ambient noise from various sources.

Many papers have shown that attention heads work in conjunction with each other to perform complex tasks. It's frequently assumed that communication between attention heads is via the addition of specific features to token residuals. In this work we seek to isolate and identify the features used to effect communication and coordination among attention heads in GPT-2 small. Our key leverage on the problem is to show that these features are very often sparsely coded in the singular vectors of attention head matrices. We characterize the dimensionality and occurrence of these signals across the attention heads in GPT-2 small when used for the Indirect Object Identification (IOI) task. The sparse encoding of signals, as provided by attention head singular vectors, allows for efficient separation of signals from the residual background and straightforward identification of communication paths between attention heads. We explore the effectiveness of this approach by tracing portions of the circuits used in the IOI task. Our traces reveal considerable detail not present in previous studies, shedding light on the nature of redundant paths present in GPT-2. And our traces go beyond previous work by identifying features used to communicate between attention heads when performing IOI.

Floor labels of crowdsourced RF signals are crucial for many smart-city applications, such as multi-floor indoor localization, geofencing, and robot surveillance. To build a prediction model to identify the floor number of a new RF signal upon its measurement, conventional approaches using the crowdsourced RF signals assume that at least few labeled signal samples are available on each floor. In this work, we push the envelope further and demonstrate that it is technically feasible to enable such floor identification with only one floor-labeled signal sample on the bottom floor while having the rest of signal samples unlabeled. We propose FIS-ONE, a novel floor identification system with only one labeled sample. FIS-ONE consists of two steps, namely signal clustering and cluster indexing. We first build a bipartite graph to model the RF signal samples and obtain a latent representation of each node (each signal sample) using our attention-based graph neural network model so that the RF signal samples can be clustered more accurately. Then, we tackle the problem of indexing the clusters with proper floor labels, by leveraging the observation that signals from an access point can be detected on different floors, i.e., signal spillover. Specifically, we formulate a cluster indexing problem as a combinatorial optimization problem and show that it is equivalent to solving a traveling salesman problem, whose (near-)optimal solution can be found efficiently. We have implemented FIS-ONE and validated its effectiveness on the Microsoft dataset and in three large shopping malls. Our results show that FIS-ONE outperforms other baseline algorithms significantly, with up to 23% improvement in adjusted rand index and 25% improvement in normalized mutual information using only one floor-labeled signal sample.

Pre-trained foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success in vision and language, yet their potential for general machine signal modeling-covering acoustic, vibration, and other industrial sensor data-remains under-explored. Existing approach using sub-band-based encoders has achieved competitive results but are limited by fixed input lengths, and the absence of explicit frequency positional encoding. In this work, we propose a novel foundation model that integrates an advanced band-split architecture with relative frequency positional embeddings, enabling precise spectral localization across arbitrary sampling configurations. The model supports inputs of arbitrary length without padding or segmentation, producing a concise embedding that retains both temporal and spectral fidelity. We evaluate our method on SIREN (https://github.com/yucongzh/SIREN), a newly introduced large-scale benchmark for machine signal encoding that unifies multiple datasets, including all DCASE task 2 challenges (2020-2025) and widely-used industrial signal corpora. Experimental results demonstrate consistent state-of-the-art performance in anomaly detection and fault identification, confirming the effectiveness and generalization capability of the proposed model. We open-sourced ECHO on https://github.com/yucongzh/ECHO.

Strong gravitational lensing of variable sources, such as quasars or supernovae, can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through a technique known as "time-delay cosmography''. Competitive constraints on the Hubble constant have been achieved with electromagnetic observations of lensed quasars and lensed supernovae. Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy may open up a new channel for time-delay cosmography with GW signal replacing the electromagnetic (EM) one. We highlight the similarities of using GW signals to be applied to time-delay cosmography compared to EM signal. We then discuss key differences between GW and EM signals and their resulting advantages and inconveniences from the angle of the current state-of-the-art using quasars and lensed supernovae for time-delay cosmography. We identify the astrometric precision requirement of the images as a key challenge to overcome and highlight the potentially significant impact that near-perfect time-delay measurements of lensed GWs can bring to the table.

Recent advancements in generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality content from context information, but a key question remains: how to teach models to know when to generate content? To answer this question, this study proposes a novel event generative model that draws its statistical intuition from marked temporal point processes, and offers a clean, flexible, and computationally efficient solution for a wide range of applications involving multi-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of the point process without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples, as well as considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Recently, large pre-trained vision-language models have shown remarkable performance in zero-shot anomaly detection (ZSAD). With fine-tuning on a single auxiliary dataset, the model enables cross-category anomaly detection on diverse datasets covering industrial defects and medical lesions. Compared to manually designed prompts, prompt learning eliminates the need for expert knowledge and trial-and-error. However, it still faces the following challenges: (i) static learnable tokens struggle to capture the continuous and diverse patterns of normal and anomalous states, limiting generalization to unseen categories; (ii) fixed textual labels provide overly sparse category information, making the model prone to overfitting to a specific semantic subspace. To address these issues, we propose Conditional Prompt Synthesis (CoPS), a novel framework that synthesizes dynamic prompts conditioned on visual features to enhance ZSAD performance. Specifically, we extract representative normal and anomaly prototypes from fine-grained patch features and explicitly inject them into prompts, enabling adaptive state modeling. Given the sparsity of class labels, we leverage a variational autoencoder to model semantic image features and implicitly fuse varied class tokens into prompts. Additionally, integrated with our spatially-aware alignment mechanism, extensive experiments demonstrate that CoPS surpasses state-of-the-art methods by 2.5% AUROC in both classification and segmentation across 13 industrial and medical datasets. Code will be available at https://github.com/cqylunlun/CoPS.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a technique to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using a lower complexity draft model to propose candidate tokens verified by a larger target model. To further improve efficiency, Multi-Candidate Speculative Decoding (MCSD) improves upon this by sampling multiple candidate tokens from the draft model at each step and verifying them in parallel, thus increasing the chances of accepting a token and reducing generation time. Existing MCSD methods rely on the draft model to initialize the multi-candidate sequences and use static length and tree attention structure for draft generation. However, such an approach suffers from the draft and target model's output distribution differences, especially in dynamic generation context. In this work, we introduce an improved version of MCSD that includes a target model initialized multi-candidate process, dynamic sliced topology-aware causal mask for dynamic length adjustment, and decision models to optimize early stopping. Our framework improves the acceptance rate, defined as the ratio of the longest draft sequence length accepted by the target model over the maximum draft sequence length, by a maximum of 164% and gains a maximum of 75% generation speed up over the MCSD baseline. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the impact of the decision model.

We present an efficient frequency-based neural representation termed PREF: a shallow MLP augmented with a phasor volume that covers significant border spectra than previous Fourier feature mapping or Positional Encoding. At the core is our compact 3D phasor volume where frequencies distribute uniformly along a 2D plane and dilate along a 1D axis. To this end, we develop a tailored and efficient Fourier transform that combines both Fast Fourier transform and local interpolation to accelerate na\"ive Fourier mapping. We also introduce a Parsvel regularizer that stables frequency-based learning. In these ways, Our PREF reduces the costly MLP in the frequency-based representation, thereby significantly closing the efficiency gap between it and other hybrid representations, and improving its interpretability. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our PREF is able to capture high-frequency details while remaining compact and robust, including 2D image generalization, 3D signed distance function regression and 5D neural radiance field reconstruction.

The incredible success of transformers on sequence modeling tasks can be largely attributed to the self-attention mechanism, which allows information to be transferred between different parts of a sequence. Self-attention allows transformers to encode causal structure which makes them particularly suitable for sequence modeling. However, the process by which transformers learn such causal structure via gradient-based training algorithms remains poorly understood. To better understand this process, we introduce an in-context learning task that requires learning latent causal structure. We prove that gradient descent on a simplified two-layer transformer learns to solve this task by encoding the latent causal graph in the first attention layer. The key insight of our proof is that the gradient of the attention matrix encodes the mutual information between tokens. As a consequence of the data processing inequality, the largest entries of this gradient correspond to edges in the latent causal graph. As a special case, when the sequences are generated from in-context Markov chains, we prove that transformers learn an induction head (Olsson et al., 2022). We confirm our theoretical findings by showing that transformers trained on our in-context learning task are able to recover a wide variety of causal structures.

This work introduces audio2chart, a framework for the automatic generation of Guitar Hero style charts directly from raw audio. The task is formalized as a sequence prediction problem, where models are trained to generate discrete chart tokens aligned with the audio on discrete time steps. An unconditional baseline demonstrates strong predictive performance, while the addition of audio conditioning yields consistent improvements across accuracy based metrics. This work demonstrates that incorporating audio conditioning is both feasible and effective for improving note prediction in automatic chart generation. The complete codebase for training and inference is publicly available on GitHub supporting reproducible research on neural chart generation. A family of pretrained models is released on Hugging Face.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Modern large language models rely on chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning to achieve impressive performance, yet the same mechanism can amplify deceptive alignment, situations in which a model appears aligned while covertly pursuing misaligned goals. Existing safety pipelines treat deception as a black-box output to be filtered post-hoc, leaving the model free to scheme during its internal reasoning. We ask: Can deception be intercepted while the model is thinking? We answer this question, the first framework that embeds a Self-Monitor inside the CoT process itself, named CoT Monitor+. During generation, the model produces (i) ordinary reasoning steps and (ii) an internal self-evaluation signal trained to flag and suppress misaligned strategies. The signal is used as an auxiliary reward in reinforcement learning, creating a feedback loop that rewards honest reasoning and discourages hidden goals. To study deceptive alignment systematically, we introduce DeceptionBench, a five-category benchmark that probes covert alignment-faking, sycophancy, etc. We evaluate various LLMs and show that unrestricted CoT roughly aggravates the deceptive tendency. In contrast, CoT Monitor+ cuts deceptive behaviors by 43.8% on average while preserving task accuracy. Further, when the self-monitor signal replaces an external weak judge in RL fine-tuning, models exhibit substantially fewer obfuscated thoughts and retain transparency. Our project website can be found at cot-monitor-plus.github.io

Training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is a high-dimensional process that requires updating numerous parameters. Therefore, it is often difficult to pinpoint the underlying learning mechanisms. To address this challenge, we propose to gain mechanistic insights into the phenomenon of abrupt learning by studying RNNs trained to perform diverse short-term memory tasks. In these tasks, RNN training begins with an initial search phase. Following a long period of plateau in accuracy, the values of the loss function suddenly drop, indicating abrupt learning. Analyzing the neural computation performed by these RNNs reveals geometric restructuring (GR) in their phase spaces prior to the drop. To promote these GR events, we introduce a temporal consistency regularization that accelerates (bioplausible) training, facilitates attractor formation, and enables efficient learning in strongly connected networks. Our findings offer testable predictions for neuroscientists and emphasize the need for goal-agnostic secondary mechanisms to facilitate learning in biological and artificial networks.

Recognizing that traditional forecasting models often rely solely on historical demand, this work investigates the potential of data-driven techniques to automatically select and integrate market indicators for improving customer demand predictions. By adopting an exploratory methodology, we integrate macroeconomic time series, such as national GDP growth, from the Eurostat database into Neural Prophet and SARIMAX forecasting models. Suitable time series are automatically identified through different state-of-the-art feature selection methods and applied to sales data from our industrial partner. It could be shown that forecasts can be significantly enhanced by incorporating external information. Notably, the potential of feature selection methods stands out, especially due to their capability for automation without expert knowledge and manual selection effort. In particular, the Forward Feature Selection technique consistently yielded superior forecasting accuracy for both SARIMAX and Neural Prophet across different company sales datasets. In the comparative analysis of the errors of the selected forecasting models, namely Neural Prophet and SARIMAX, it is observed that neither model demonstrates a significant superiority over the other.

Speech sounds convey a great deal of information about the scenes, resulting in a variety of effects ranging from reverberation to additional ambient sounds. In this paper, we manipulate input speech to sound as though it was recorded within a different scene, given an audio-visual conditional example recorded from that scene. Our model learns through self-supervision, taking advantage of the fact that natural video contains recurring sound events and textures. We extract an audio clip from a video and apply speech enhancement. We then train a latent diffusion model to recover the original speech, using another audio-visual clip taken from elsewhere in the video as a conditional hint. Through this process, the model learns to transfer the conditional example's sound properties to the input speech. We show that our model can be successfully trained using unlabeled, in-the-wild videos, and that an additional visual signal can improve its sound prediction abilities. Please see our project webpage for video results: https://tinglok.netlify.app/files/avsoundscape/

Most modern approaches for audio processing are opaque, in the sense that they do not provide an explanation for their decisions. For this reason, various methods have been proposed to explain the outputs generated by these models. Good explanations can result in interesting insights about the data or the model, as well as increase trust in the system. Unfortunately, evaluating the quality of explanations is far from trivial since, for most tasks, there is no clear ground truth explanation to use as reference. In this work, we propose a benchmark for time-localized explanations for audio classification models that uses time annotations of target events as a proxy for ground truth explanations. We use this benchmark to systematically optimize and compare various approaches for model-agnostic post-hoc explanation, obtaining, in some cases, close to perfect explanations. Finally, we illustrate the utility of the explanations for uncovering spurious correlations.

We describe a new detector, called NuLat, to study electron anti-neutrinos a few meters from a nuclear reactor, and search for anomalous neutrino oscillations. Such oscillations could be caused by sterile neutrinos, and might explain the "Reactor Antineutrino Anomaly". NuLat, is made possible by a natural synergy between the miniTimeCube and mini-LENS programs described in this paper. It features a "Raghavan Optical Lattice" (ROL) consisting of 3375 boron or ^6Li loaded plastic scintillator cubical cells 6.3\,cm (2.500") on a side. Cell boundaries have a 0.127\,mm (0.005") air gap, resulting in total internal reflection guiding most of the light down the 3 cardinal directions. The ROL detector technology for NuLat gives excellent spatial and energy resolution and allows for in-depth event topology studies. These features allow us to discern inverse beta decay (IBD) signals and the putative oscillation pattern, even in the presence of other backgrounds. We discuss here test venues, efficiency, sensitivity and project status.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.

We introduce Noise2Music, where a series of diffusion models is trained to generate high-quality 30-second music clips from text prompts. Two types of diffusion models, a generator model, which generates an intermediate representation conditioned on text, and a cascader model, which generates high-fidelity audio conditioned on the intermediate representation and possibly the text, are trained and utilized in succession to generate high-fidelity music. We explore two options for the intermediate representation, one using a spectrogram and the other using audio with lower fidelity. We find that the generated audio is not only able to faithfully reflect key elements of the text prompt such as genre, tempo, instruments, mood, and era, but goes beyond to ground fine-grained semantics of the prompt. Pretrained large language models play a key role in this story -- they are used to generate paired text for the audio of the training set and to extract embeddings of the text prompts ingested by the diffusion models. Generated examples: https://google-research.github.io/noise2music

Audio-visual event parsing plays a crucial role in understanding multimodal video content, but existing methods typically rely on offline processing of entire videos with huge model sizes, limiting their real-time applicability. We introduce Online Audio-Visual Event Parsing (On-AVEP), a novel paradigm for parsing audio, visual, and audio-visual events by sequentially analyzing incoming video streams. The On-AVEP task necessitates models with two key capabilities: (1) Accurate online inference, to effectively distinguish events with unclear and limited context in online settings, and (2) Real-time efficiency, to balance high performance with computational constraints. To cultivate these, we propose the Predictive Future Modeling (PreFM) framework featured by (a) predictive multimodal future modeling to infer and integrate beneficial future audio-visual cues, thereby enhancing contextual understanding and (b) modality-agnostic robust representation along with focal temporal prioritization to improve precision and generalization. Extensive experiments on the UnAV-100 and LLP datasets show PreFM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin with significantly fewer parameters, offering an insightful approach for real-time multimodal video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/XiaoYu-1123/PreFM.

Stock selection, which aims to predict stock prices and identify the most profitable ones, is a crucial task in finance. While existing methods primarily focus on developing model structures and building graphs for improved selection, pre-training strategies remain underexplored in this domain. Current stock series pre-training follows methods from other areas without adapting to the unique characteristics of financial data, particularly overlooking stock-specific contextual information and the non-stationary nature of stock prices. Consequently, the latent statistical features inherent in stock data are underutilized. In this paper, we propose three novel pre-training tasks tailored to stock data characteristics: stock code classification, stock sector classification, and moving average prediction. We develop the Stock Specialized Pre-trained Transformer (SSPT) based on a two-layer transformer architecture. Extensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of our pre-training methods and provide detailed guidance on their application. Evaluations on five stock datasets, including four markets and two time periods, demonstrate that SSPT consistently outperforms the market and existing methods in terms of both cumulative investment return ratio and Sharpe ratio. Additionally, our experiments on simulated data investigate the underlying mechanisms of our methods, providing insights into understanding price series. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/astudentuser/Pre-training-Time-Series-Models-with-Stock-Data-Customization.

Predictive coding networks are neuroscience-inspired models with roots in both Bayesian statistics and neuroscience. Training such models, however, is quite inefficient and unstable. In this work, we show how by simply changing the temporal scheduling of the update rule for the synaptic weights leads to an algorithm that is much more efficient and stable than the original one, and has theoretical guarantees in terms of convergence. The proposed algorithm, that we call incremental predictive coding (iPC) is also more biologically plausible than the original one, as it it fully automatic. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that iPC constantly performs better than the original formulation on a large number of benchmarks for image classification, as well as for the training of both conditional and masked language models, in terms of test accuracy, efficiency, and convergence with respect to a large set of hyperparameters.

We present a method for simultaneously localizing multiple sound sources within a visual scene. This task requires a model to both group a sound mixture into individual sources, and to associate them with a visual signal. Our method jointly solves both tasks at once, using a formulation inspired by the contrastive random walk of Jabri et al. We create a graph in which images and separated sounds correspond to nodes, and train a random walker to transition between nodes from different modalities with high return probability. The transition probabilities for this walk are determined by an audio-visual similarity metric that is learned by our model. We show through experiments with musical instruments and human speech that our model can successfully localize multiple sounds, outperforming other self-supervised methods. Project site: https://hxixixh.github.io/mix-and-localize

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Grokking, or delayed generalization, is a phenomenon where generalization in a deep neural network (DNN) occurs long after achieving near zero training error. Previous studies have reported the occurrence of grokking in specific controlled settings, such as DNNs initialized with large-norm parameters or transformers trained on algorithmic datasets. We demonstrate that grokking is actually much more widespread and materializes in a wide range of practical settings, such as training of a convolutional neural network (CNN) on CIFAR10 or a Resnet on Imagenette. We introduce the new concept of delayed robustness, whereby a DNN groks adversarial examples and becomes robust, long after interpolation and/or generalization. We develop an analytical explanation for the emergence of both delayed generalization and delayed robustness based on a new measure of the local complexity of a DNN's input-output mapping. Our local complexity measures the density of the so-called 'linear regions' (aka, spline partition regions) that tile the DNN input space, and serves as a utile progress measure for training. We provide the first evidence that for classification problems, the linear regions undergo a phase transition during training whereafter they migrate away from the training samples (making the DNN mapping smoother there) and towards the decision boundary (making the DNN mapping less smooth there). Grokking occurs post phase transition as a robust partition of the input space emerges thanks to the linearization of the DNN mapping around the training points. Website: https://bit.ly/grok-adversarial

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been recently proposed to generate high-quality samples by estimating the gradient of the data density. The framework defines the prior noise as a standard Gaussian distribution, whereas the corresponding data distribution may be more complicated than the standard Gaussian distribution, which potentially introduces inefficiency in denoising the prior noise into the data sample because of the discrepancy between the data and the prior. In this paper, we propose PriorGrad to improve the efficiency of the conditional diffusion model for speech synthesis (for example, a vocoder using a mel-spectrogram as the condition) by applying an adaptive prior derived from the data statistics based on the conditional information. We formulate the training and sampling procedures of PriorGrad and demonstrate the advantages of an adaptive prior through a theoretical analysis. Focusing on the speech synthesis domain, we consider the recently proposed diffusion-based speech generative models based on both the spectral and time domains and show that PriorGrad achieves faster convergence and inference with superior performance, leading to an improved perceptual quality and robustness to a smaller network capacity, and thereby demonstrating the efficiency of a data-dependent adaptive prior.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER