Daily Papers

Integral reinforcement learning (IntRL) demands the precise computation of the utility function's integral at its policy evaluation (PEV) stage. This is achieved through quadrature rules, which are weighted sums of utility functions evaluated from state samples obtained in discrete time. Our research reveals a critical yet underexplored phenomenon: the choice of the computational method -- in this case, the quadrature rule -- can significantly impact control performance. This impact is traced back to the fact that computational errors introduced in the PEV stage can affect the policy iteration's convergence behavior, which in turn affects the learned controller. To elucidate how computation impacts control, we draw a parallel between IntRL's policy iteration and Newton's method applied to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. In this light, computational error in PEV manifests as an extra error term in each iteration of Newton's method, with its upper bound proportional to the computational error. Further, we demonstrate that when the utility function resides in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), the optimal quadrature is achievable by employing Bayesian quadrature with the RKHS-inducing kernel function. We prove that the local convergence rates for IntRL using the trapezoidal rule and Bayesian quadrature with a Mat\'ern kernel to be O(N^{-2}) and O(N^{-b}), where N is the number of evenly-spaced samples and b is the Mat\'ern kernel's smoothness parameter. These theoretical findings are finally validated by two canonical control tasks.

Quantizing the weights of a neural network has two steps: (1) Finding a good low bit-complexity representation for weights (which we call the quantization grid) and (2) Rounding the original weights to values in the quantization grid. In this paper, we study the problem of rounding optimally given any quantization grid. The simplest and most commonly used way to round is Round-to-Nearest (RTN). By rounding in a data-dependent way instead, one can improve the quality of the quantized model significantly. We study the rounding problem from the lens of discrepancy theory, which studies how well we can round a continuous solution to a discrete solution without affecting solution quality too much. We prove that given m=poly(1/ε) samples from the data distribution, we can round all but O(m) model weights such that the expected approximation error of the quantized model on the true data distribution is le ε as long as the space of gradients of the original model is approximately low rank (which we empirically validate). Our proof, which is algorithmic, inspired a simple and practical rounding algorithm called DiscQuant. In our experiments, we demonstrate that DiscQuant significantly improves over the prior state-of-the-art rounding method called GPTQ and the baseline RTN over a range of benchmarks on Phi3mini-3.8B and Llama3.1-8B. For example, rounding Phi3mini-3.8B to a fixed quantization grid with 3.25 bits per parameter using DiscQuant gets 64\% accuracy on the GSM8k dataset, whereas GPTQ achieves 54\% and RTN achieves 31\% (the original model achieves 84\%). We make our code available at https://github.com/jerry-chee/DiscQuant.

The total variation (TV)-seminorm is considered for piecewise polynomial, globally discontinuous (DG) and continuous (CG) finite element functions on simplicial meshes. A novel, discrete variant (DTV) based on a nodal quadrature formula is defined. DTV has favorable properties, compared to the original TV-seminorm for finite element functions. These include a convenient dual representation in terms of the supremum over the space of Raviart--Thomas finite element functions, subject to a set of simple constraints. It can therefore be shown that a variety of algorithms for classical image reconstruction problems, including TV-L^2 and TV-L^1, can be implemented in low and higher-order finite element spaces with the same efficiency as their counterparts originally developed for images on Cartesian grids.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

We study uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations subject to domain uncertainty. We parameterize the random domain using the model recently considered by Chernov and Le (2024) as well as Harbrecht, Schmidlin, and Schwab (2024) in which the input random field is assumed to belong to a Gevrey smoothness class. This approach has the advantage of being substantially more general than models which assume a particular parametric representation of the input random field such as a Karhunen-Loeve series expansion. We consider both the Poisson equation as well as the heat equation and design randomly shifted lattice quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules for the computation of the expected solution under domain uncertainty. We show that these QMC rules exhibit dimension-independent, essentially linear cubature convergence rates in this framework. In addition, we complete the error analysis by taking into account the approximation errors incurred by dimension truncation of the random input field and finite element discretization. Numerical experiments are presented to confirm the theoretical rates.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.