Daily Papers

Data driven robotics relies upon accurate real-world representations to learn useful policies. Despite our best-efforts, zero-shot sim-to-real transfer is still an unsolved problem, and we often need to allow our agents to explore online to learn useful policies for a given task. For many applications of field robotics online exploration is prohibitively expensive and dangerous, this is especially true in fixed-wing aerial robotics. To address these challenges we offer an intermediary solution for learning in field robotics. We investigate the use of dissimilar platform vehicle for learning and offer a procedure to mimic the behavior of one vehicle with another. We specifically consider the problem of training fixed-wing aircraft, an expensive and dangerous vehicle type, using a multi-rotor host platform. Using a Model Predictive Control approach, we design a controller capable of mimicking another vehicles behavior in both simulation and the real-world.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) offers a powerful and general framework for learning humans' latent preferences in route recommendation, yet no approach has successfully addressed planetary-scale problems with hundreds of millions of states and demonstration trajectories. In this paper, we introduce scaling techniques based on graph compression, spatial parallelization, and improved initialization conditions inspired by a connection to eigenvector algorithms. We revisit classic IRL methods in the routing context, and make the key observation that there exists a trade-off between the use of cheap, deterministic planners and expensive yet robust stochastic policies. This insight is leveraged in Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), a new generalization of classic IRL algorithms that provides fine-grained control over performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our contributions culminate in a policy that achieves a 16-24% improvement in route quality at a global scale, and to the best of our knowledge, represents the largest published study of IRL algorithms in a real-world setting to date. We conclude by conducting an ablation study of key components, presenting negative results from alternative eigenvalue solvers, and identifying opportunities to further improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies.

Synthesizing optimal controllers for dynamical systems often involves solving optimization problems with hard real-time constraints. These constraints determine the class of numerical methods that can be applied: computationally expensive but accurate numerical routines are replaced by fast and inaccurate methods, trading inference time for solution accuracy. This paper provides techniques to improve the quality of optimized control policies given a fixed computational budget. We achieve the above via a hypersolvers approach, which hybridizes a differential equation solver and a neural network. The performance is evaluated in direct and receding-horizon optimal control tasks in both low and high dimensions, where the proposed approach shows consistent Pareto improvements in solution accuracy and control performance.

Mobile Manipulation (MoMa) systems incorporate the benefits of mobility and dexterity, thanks to the enlarged space in which they can move and interact with their environment. MoMa robots can also continuously perceive their environment when equipped with onboard sensors, e.g., an embodied camera. However, extracting task-relevant visual information in unstructured and cluttered environments such as households remains a challenge. In this work, we introduce an active perception pipeline for mobile manipulators to generate motions that are informative toward manipulation tasks such as grasping, in initially unknown, cluttered scenes. Our proposed approach ActPerMoMa generates robot trajectories in a receding horizon fashion, sampling trajectories and computing path-wise utilities that trade-off reconstructing the unknown scene by maximizing the visual information gain and the taskoriented objective, e.g., grasp success by maximizing grasp reachability efficiently. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method in simulated experiments with a dual-arm TIAGo++ MoMa robot performing mobile grasping in cluttered scenes and when its path is obstructed by external obstacles. We empirically analyze the contribution of various utilities and hyperparameters, and compare against representative baselines both with and without active perception objectives. Finally, we demonstrate the transfer of our mobile grasping strategy to the real world, showing a promising direction for active-perceptive MoMa.

As robots become increasingly capable, users will want to describe high-level missions and have robots infer the relevant details. because pre-built maps are difficult to obtain in many realistic settings, accomplishing such missions will require the robot to map and plan online. while many semantic planning methods operate online, they are typically designed for well specified missions such as object search or exploration. recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated powerful contextual reasoning abilities over a range of robotic tasks described in natural language. however, existing LLM-enabled planners typically do not consider online planning or complex missions; rather, relevant subtasks and semantics are provided by a pre-built map or a user. we address these limitations via spine, an online planner for missions with incomplete mission specifications provided in natural language. the planner uses an LLM to reason about subtasks implied by the mission specification and then realizes these subtasks in a receding horizon framework. tasks are automatically validated for safety and refined online with new map observations. we evaluate spine in simulation and real-world settings with missions that require multiple steps of semantic reasoning and exploration in cluttered outdoor environments of over 20,000m^2. compared to baselines that use existing LLM-enabled planning approaches, our method is over twice as efficient in terms of time and distance, requires less user interactions, and does not require a full map. Additional resources are provided at: https://zacravichandran.github.io/SPINE.

Vessel transit in ice-covered waters poses unique challenges in safe and efficient motion planning. When the concentration of ice is high, it may not be possible to find collision-free trajectories. Instead, ice can be pushed out of the way if it is small or if contact occurs near the edge of the ice. In this work, we propose a real-time navigation framework that minimizes collisions with ice and distance travelled by the vessel. We exploit a lattice-based planner with a cost that captures the ship interaction with ice. To address the dynamic nature of the environment, we plan motion in a receding horizon manner based on updated vessel and ice state information. Further, we present a novel planning heuristic for evaluating the cost-to-go, which is applicable to navigation in a channel without a fixed goal location. The performance of our planner is evaluated across several levels of ice concentration both in simulated and in real-world experiments.

This paper introduces Diffusion Policy, a new way of generating robot behavior by representing a robot's visuomotor policy as a conditional denoising diffusion process. We benchmark Diffusion Policy across 11 different tasks from 4 different robot manipulation benchmarks and find that it consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art robot learning methods with an average improvement of 46.9%. Diffusion Policy learns the gradient of the action-distribution score function and iteratively optimizes with respect to this gradient field during inference via a series of stochastic Langevin dynamics steps. We find that the diffusion formulation yields powerful advantages when used for robot policies, including gracefully handling multimodal action distributions, being suitable for high-dimensional action spaces, and exhibiting impressive training stability. To fully unlock the potential of diffusion models for visuomotor policy learning on physical robots, this paper presents a set of key technical contributions including the incorporation of receding horizon control, visual conditioning, and the time-series diffusion transformer. We hope this work will help motivate a new generation of policy learning techniques that are able to leverage the powerful generative modeling capabilities of diffusion models. Code, data, and training details will be publicly available.

Controlling a robot based on physics-consistent dynamic models, such as Deep Lagrangian Networks (DeLaN), can improve the generalizability and interpretability of the resulting behavior. However, in complex environments, the number of objects to potentially interact with is vast, and their physical properties are often uncertain. This complexity makes it infeasible to employ a single global model. Therefore, we need to resort to online system identification of context-aware models that capture only the currently relevant aspects of the environment. While physical principles such as the conservation of energy may not hold across varying contexts, ensuring physical plausibility for any individual context-aware model can still be highly desirable, particularly when using it for receding horizon control methods such as model predictive control (MPC). Hence, in this work, we extend DeLaN to make it context-aware, combine it with a recurrent network for online system identification, and integrate it with an MPC for adaptive, physics-consistent control. We also combine DeLaN with a residual dynamics model to leverage the fact that a nominal model of the robot is typically available. We evaluate our method on a 7-DOF robot arm for trajectory tracking under varying loads. Our method reduces the end-effector tracking error by 39%, compared to a 21% improvement achieved by a baseline that uses an extended Kalman filter.

Imitation Learning presents a promising approach for learning generalizable and complex robotic skills. The recently proposed Diffusion Policy generates robot action sequences through a conditional denoising diffusion process, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to other imitation learning methods. This paper summarizes five key components of Diffusion Policy: 1) observation sequence input; 2) action sequence execution; 3) receding horizon; 4) U-Net or Transformer network architecture; and 5) FiLM conditioning. By conducting experiments across ManiSkill and Adroit benchmarks, this study aims to elucidate the contribution of each component to the success of Diffusion Policy in various scenarios. We hope our findings will provide valuable insights for the application of Diffusion Policy in future research and industry.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Data-driven model predictive control has two key advantages over model-free methods: a potential for improved sample efficiency through model learning, and better performance as computational budget for planning increases. However, it is both costly to plan over long horizons and challenging to obtain an accurate model of the environment. In this work, we combine the strengths of model-free and model-based methods. We use a learned task-oriented latent dynamics model for local trajectory optimization over a short horizon, and use a learned terminal value function to estimate long-term return, both of which are learned jointly by temporal difference learning. Our method, TD-MPC, achieves superior sample efficiency and asymptotic performance over prior work on both state and image-based continuous control tasks from DMControl and Meta-World. Code and video results are available at https://nicklashansen.github.io/td-mpc.

The enduring challenge in the field of artificial intelligence has been the control of systems to achieve desired behaviours. While for systems governed by straightforward dynamics equations, methods like Linear Quadratic Regulation (LQR) have historically proven highly effective, most real-world tasks, which require a general problem-solver, demand world models with dynamics that cannot be easily described by simple equations. Consequently, these models must be learned from data using neural networks. Most model predictive control (MPC) algorithms designed for visual world models have traditionally explored gradient-free population-based optimisation methods, such as Cross Entropy and Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) for planning. However, we present an exploration of a gradient-based alternative that fully leverages the differentiability of the world model. In our study, we conduct a comparative analysis between our method and other MPC-based alternatives, as well as policy-based algorithms. In a sample-efficient setting, our method achieves on par or superior performance compared to the alternative approaches in most tasks. Additionally, we introduce a hybrid model that combines policy networks and gradient-based MPC, which outperforms pure policy based methods thereby holding promise for Gradient-based planning with world models in complex real-world tasks.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear. To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate. We first timed humans with relevant domain expertise on a combination of RE-Bench, HCAST, and 66 novel shorter tasks. On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furthermore, frontier AI time horizon has been doubling approximately every seven months since 2019, though the trend may have accelerated in 2024. The increase in AI models' time horizons seems to be primarily driven by greater reliability and ability to adapt to mistakes, combined with better logical reasoning and tool use capabilities. We discuss the limitations of our results -- including their degree of external validity -- and the implications of increased autonomy for dangerous capabilities. If these results generalize to real-world software tasks, extrapolation of this trend predicts that within 5 years, AI systems will be capable of automating many software tasks that currently take humans a month.

Diffusion and flow-based models have enabled significant progress in generation tasks across various modalities and have recently found applications in world modeling. However, unlike typical generation tasks that encourage sample diversity, world models entail different sources of uncertainty and require consistent samples aligned with the ground-truth trajectory, which is a limitation we empirically observe in diffusion models. We argue that a key bottleneck in learning consistent diffusion-based world models lies in the suboptimal predictive ability, which we attribute to the entanglement of condition understanding and target denoising within shared architectures and co-training schemes. To address this, we propose Foresight Diffusion (ForeDiff), a diffusion-based world modeling framework that enhances consistency by decoupling condition understanding from target denoising. ForeDiff incorporates a separate deterministic predictive stream to process conditioning inputs independently of the denoising stream, and further leverages a pretrained predictor to extract informative representations that guide generation. Extensive experiments on robot video prediction and scientific spatiotemporal forecasting show that ForeDiff improves both predictive accuracy and sample consistency over strong baselines, offering a promising direction for diffusion-based world models.

Diffusion models have greatly improved visual generation but are hindered by slow generation speed due to the computationally intensive nature of solving generative ODEs. Rectified flow, a widely recognized solution, improves generation speed by straightening the ODE path. Its key components include: 1) using the diffusion form of flow-matching, 2) employing boldsymbol v-prediction, and 3) performing rectification (a.k.a. reflow). In this paper, we argue that the success of rectification primarily lies in using a pretrained diffusion model to obtain matched pairs of noise and samples, followed by retraining with these matched noise-sample pairs. Based on this, components 1) and 2) are unnecessary. Furthermore, we highlight that straightness is not an essential training target for rectification; rather, it is a specific case of flow-matching models. The more critical training target is to achieve a first-order approximate ODE path, which is inherently curved for models like DDPM and Sub-VP. Building on this insight, we propose Rectified Diffusion, which generalizes the design space and application scope of rectification to encompass the broader category of diffusion models, rather than being restricted to flow-matching models. We validate our method on Stable Diffusion v1-5 and Stable Diffusion XL. Our method not only greatly simplifies the training procedure of rectified flow-based previous works (e.g., InstaFlow) but also achieves superior performance with even lower training cost. Our code is available at https://github.com/G-U-N/Rectified-Diffusion.

Recent ODE/SDE-based generative models, such as diffusion models, rectified flows, and flow matching, define a generative process as a time reversal of a fixed forward process. Even though these models show impressive performance on large-scale datasets, numerical simulation requires multiple evaluations of a neural network, leading to a slow sampling speed. We attribute the reason to the high curvature of the learned generative trajectories, as it is directly related to the truncation error of a numerical solver. Based on the relationship between the forward process and the curvature, here we present an efficient method of training the forward process to minimize the curvature of generative trajectories without any ODE/SDE simulation. Experiments show that our method achieves a lower curvature than previous models and, therefore, decreased sampling costs while maintaining competitive performance. Code is available at https://github.com/sangyun884/fast-ode.

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a formal framework for modeling and solving sequential decision-making problems. In finite-time horizons such problems are relevant for instance for optimal stopping or specific supply chain problems, but also in the training of large language models. In contrast to infinite horizon MDPs optimal policies are not stationary, policies must be learned for every single epoch. In practice all parameters are often trained simultaneously, ignoring the inherent structure suggested by dynamic programming. This paper introduces a combination of dynamic programming and policy gradient called dynamic policy gradient, where the parameters are trained backwards in time. For the tabular softmax parametrisation we carry out the convergence analysis for simultaneous and dynamic policy gradient towards global optima, both in the exact and sampled gradient settings without regularisation. It turns out that the use of dynamic policy gradient training much better exploits the structure of finite-time problems which is reflected in improved convergence bounds.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

A recent line of works showed regret bounds in reinforcement learning (RL) can be (nearly) independent of planning horizon, a.k.a.~the horizon-free bounds. However, these regret bounds only apply to settings where a polynomial dependency on the size of transition model is allowed, such as tabular Markov Decision Process (MDP) and linear mixture MDP. We give the first horizon-free bound for the popular linear MDP setting where the size of the transition model can be exponentially large or even uncountable. In contrast to prior works which explicitly estimate the transition model and compute the inhomogeneous value functions at different time steps, we directly estimate the value functions and confidence sets. We obtain the horizon-free bound by: (1) maintaining multiple weighted least square estimators for the value functions; and (2) a structural lemma which shows the maximal total variation of the inhomogeneous value functions is bounded by a polynomial factor of the feature dimension.

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Score-based generative models (SGMs) are a powerful class of generative models that exhibit remarkable empirical performance. Score-based generative modelling (SGM) consists of a ``noising'' stage, whereby a diffusion is used to gradually add Gaussian noise to data, and a generative model, which entails a ``denoising'' process defined by approximating the time-reversal of the diffusion. Existing SGMs assume that data is supported on a Euclidean space, i.e. a manifold with flat geometry. In many domains such as robotics, geoscience or protein modelling, data is often naturally described by distributions living on Riemannian manifolds and current SGM techniques are not appropriate. We introduce here Riemannian Score-based Generative Models (RSGMs), a class of generative models extending SGMs to Riemannian manifolds. We demonstrate our approach on a variety of manifolds, and in particular with earth and climate science spherical data.

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven atmospheric variables with 3-h time resolution for up to one-year lead times on a 110-km global mesh using the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization (HEALPix). In comparison to state-of-the-art (SOTA) machine learning (ML) weather forecast models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, our DLWP-HPX model uses coarser resolution and far fewer prognostic variables. Yet, at one-week lead times, its skill is only about one day behind both SOTA ML forecast models and the SOTA numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We report several improvements in model design, including switching from the cubed sphere to the HEALPix mesh, inverting the channel depth of the U-Net, and introducing gated recurrent units (GRU) on each level of the U-Net hierarchy. The consistent east-west orientation of all cells on the HEALPix mesh facilitates the development of location-invariant convolution kernels that successfully propagate weather patterns across the globe without requiring separate kernels for the polar and equatorial faces of the cube sphere. Without any loss of spectral power after the first two days, the model can be unrolled autoregressively for hundreds of steps into the future to generate realistic states of the atmosphere that respect seasonal trends, as showcased in one-year simulations.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

We provide a mapping between past null and future null infinity in three-dimensional flat space, using symmetry considerations. From this we derive a mapping between the corresponding asymptotic symmetry groups. By studying the metric at asymptotic regions, we find that the mapping is energy preserving and yields an infinite number of conservation laws.

We present rectified flow, a surprisingly simple approach to learning (neural) ordinary differential equation (ODE) models to transport between two empirically observed distributions \pi_0 and \pi_1, hence providing a unified solution to generative modeling and domain transfer, among various other tasks involving distribution transport. The idea of rectified flow is to learn the ODE to follow the straight paths connecting the points drawn from \pi_0 and \pi_1 as much as possible. This is achieved by solving a straightforward nonlinear least squares optimization problem, which can be easily scaled to large models without introducing extra parameters beyond standard supervised learning. The straight paths are special and preferred because they are the shortest paths between two points, and can be simulated exactly without time discretization and hence yield computationally efficient models. We show that the procedure of learning a rectified flow from data, called rectification, turns an arbitrary coupling of \pi_0 and \pi_1 to a new deterministic coupling with provably non-increasing convex transport costs. In addition, recursively applying rectification allows us to obtain a sequence of flows with increasingly straight paths, which can be simulated accurately with coarse time discretization in the inference phase. In empirical studies, we show that rectified flow performs superbly on image generation, image-to-image translation, and domain adaptation. In particular, on image generation and translation, our method yields nearly straight flows that give high quality results even with a single Euler discretization step.

Diffusion models have become popular for policy learning in robotics due to their ability to capture high-dimensional and multimodal distributions. However, diffusion policies are stochastic and typically trained offline, limiting their ability to handle unseen and dynamic conditions where novel constraints not represented in the training data must be satisfied. To overcome this limitation, we propose diffusion predictive control with constraints (DPCC), an algorithm for diffusion-based control with explicit state and action constraints that can deviate from those in the training data. DPCC incorporates model-based projections into the denoising process of a trained trajectory diffusion model and uses constraint tightening to account for model mismatch. This allows us to generate constraint-satisfying, dynamically feasible, and goal-reaching trajectories for predictive control. We show through simulations of a robot manipulator that DPCC outperforms existing methods in satisfying novel test-time constraints while maintaining performance on the learned control task.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.