Daily Papers

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

The data mixture for large language model pre-training significantly impacts performance, yet how to determine an effective mixture remains unclear. We propose RegMix to automatically identify a high-performing data mixture by formulating it as a regression task. RegMix involves training a set of small models with diverse data mixtures and fitting a regression model to predict their performance given their respective mixtures. With the fitted regression model, we simulate the top-ranked mixture and use it to train a large-scale model with orders of magnitude more compute. To empirically validate RegMix, we train 512 models with 1M parameters for 1B tokens of different mixtures to fit the regression model and find the optimal mixture. Using this mixture we train a 1B parameter model for 25B tokens (i.e. 1000x larger and 25x longer) which we find performs best among 64 candidate 1B parameter models with other mixtures. Further, our method demonstrates superior performance compared to human selection and achieves results that match or surpass DoReMi, while utilizing only 10% of the compute budget. Our experiments also show that (1) Data mixtures significantly impact performance with single-task performance variations of up to 14.6%; (2) Web corpora rather than data perceived as high-quality like Wikipedia have the strongest positive correlation with downstream performance; (3) Domains interact in complex ways often contradicting common sense, thus automatic approaches like RegMix are needed; (4) Data mixture effects transcend scaling laws, and our approach captures the complexity by considering all domains together. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/regmix.

Recent studies of gradient descent with large step sizes have shown that there is often a regime with an initial increase in the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian (progressive sharpening), followed by a stabilization of the eigenvalue near the maximum value which allows convergence (edge of stability). These phenomena are intrinsically non-linear and do not happen for models in the constant Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, for which the predictive function is approximately linear in the parameters. As such, we consider the next simplest class of predictive models, namely those that are quadratic in the parameters, which we call second-order regression models. For quadratic objectives in two dimensions, we prove that this second-order regression model exhibits progressive sharpening of the NTK eigenvalue towards a value that differs slightly from the edge of stability, which we explicitly compute. In higher dimensions, the model generically shows similar behavior, even without the specific structure of a neural network, suggesting that progressive sharpening and edge-of-stability behavior aren't unique features of neural networks, and could be a more general property of discrete learning algorithms in high-dimensional non-linear models.

The task of age transformation illustrates the change of an individual's appearance over time. Accurately modeling this complex transformation over an input facial image is extremely challenging as it requires making convincing, possibly large changes to facial features and head shape, while still preserving the input identity. In this work, we present an image-to-image translation method that learns to directly encode real facial images into the latent space of a pre-trained unconditional GAN (e.g., StyleGAN) subject to a given aging shift. We employ a pre-trained age regression network to explicitly guide the encoder in generating the latent codes corresponding to the desired age. In this formulation, our method approaches the continuous aging process as a regression task between the input age and desired target age, providing fine-grained control over the generated image. Moreover, unlike approaches that operate solely in the latent space using a prior on the path controlling age, our method learns a more disentangled, non-linear path. Finally, we demonstrate that the end-to-end nature of our approach, coupled with the rich semantic latent space of StyleGAN, allows for further editing of the generated images. Qualitative and quantitative evaluations show the advantages of our method compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Despite significant progress of generative models in the natural sciences, their controllability remains challenging. One fundamentally missing aspect of molecular or protein generative models is an inductive bias that can reflect continuous properties of interest. To that end, we propose the Regression Transformer (RT), a novel method that abstracts regression as a conditional sequence modeling problem. This introduces a new paradigm of multitask language models which seamlessly bridge sequence regression and conditional sequence generation. We thoroughly demonstrate that, despite using a nominal-scale training objective, the RT matches or surpasses the performance of conventional regression models in property prediction tasks of small molecules, proteins and chemical reactions. Critically, priming the same model with continuous properties yields a highly competitive conditional generative model that outperforms specialized approaches in a substructure-constrained, property-driven molecule generation benchmark. Our dichotomous approach is facilitated by a novel, alternating training scheme that enables the model to decorate seed sequences by desired properties, e.g., to optimize reaction yield. In sum, the RT is the first report of a multitask model that concurrently excels at predictive and generative tasks in biochemistry. This finds particular application in property-driven, local exploration of the chemical or protein space and could pave the road toward foundation models in material design. The code to reproduce all experiments of the paper is available at: https://github.com/IBM/regression-transformer

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.

Based on principal-agent theory and optimal contract theory, companies use the method of increasing executives' shareholding to stimulate collaborative innovation. However, from the aspect of agency costs between management and shareholders (i.e. the first type) and between major shareholders and minority shareholders (i.e. the second type), the interests of management, shareholders and creditors will be unbalanced with the change of the marginal utility of executive equity incentives.In order to establish the correlation between the proportion of shares held by executives and investments in corporate innovation, we have chosen a range of publicly listed companies within China's A-share market as the focus of our study. Employing a multi-variable linear regression model, we aim to analyze this relationship thoroughly.The following models were developed: (1) the impact model of executive shareholding on corporate innovation investment; (2) the impact model of executive shareholding on two types of agency costs; (3)The model is employed to examine the mediating influence of the two categories of agency costs. Following both correlation and regression analyses, the findings confirm a meaningful and positive correlation between executives' shareholding and the augmentation of corporate innovation investments. Additionally, the results indicate that executive shareholding contributes to the reduction of the first type of agency cost, thereby fostering corporate innovation investment. However, simultaneously, it leads to an escalation in the second type of agency cost, thus impeding corporate innovation investment.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Arabic dialects form a diverse continuum, yet NLP models often treat them as discrete categories. Recent work addresses this issue by modeling dialectness as a continuous variable, notably through the Arabic Level of Dialectness (ALDi). However, ALDi reduces complex variation to a single dimension. We propose a complementary measure: the Arabic Generality Score (AGS), which quantifies how widely a word is used across dialects. We introduce a pipeline that combines word alignment, etymology-aware edit distance, and smoothing to annotate a parallel corpus with word-level AGS. A regression model is then trained to predict AGS in context. Our approach outperforms strong baselines, including state-of-the-art dialect ID systems, on a multi-dialect benchmark. AGS offers a scalable, linguistically grounded way to model lexical generality, enriching representations of Arabic dialectness.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a perspective approach to detecting Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations and low quality output. In this work, we address one of the challenges of UQ in generation tasks that arises from the conditional dependency between the generation steps of an LLM. We propose to learn this dependency from data. We train a regression model, which target variable is the gap between the conditional and the unconditional generation confidence. During LLM inference, we use this learned conditional dependency model to modulate the uncertainty of the current generation step based on the uncertainty of the previous step. Our experimental evaluation on nine datasets and three LLMs shows that the proposed method is highly effective for uncertainty quantification, achieving substantial improvements over rivaling approaches.

Acquiring an accurate world model online for model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is challenging due to data nonstationarity, which typically causes catastrophic forgetting for neural networks (NNs). From the online learning perspective, a Follow-The-Leader (FTL) world model is desirable, which optimally fits all previous experiences at each round. Unfortunately, NN-based models need re-training on all accumulated data at every interaction step to achieve FTL, which is computationally expensive for lifelong agents. In this paper, we revisit models that can achieve FTL with incremental updates. Specifically, our world model is a linear regression model supported by nonlinear random features. The linear part ensures efficient FTL update while the nonlinear random feature empowers the fitting of complex environments. To best trade off model capacity and computation efficiency, we introduce a locality sensitive sparse encoding, which allows us to conduct efficient sparse updates even with very high dimensional nonlinear features. We validate the representation power of our encoding and verify that it allows efficient online learning under data covariate shift. We also show, in the Dyna MBRL setting, that our world models learned online using a single pass of trajectory data either surpass or match the performance of deep world models trained with replay and other continual learning methods.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been increasingly studied as neural knowledge bases for supporting knowledge-intensive applications such as question answering and fact checking. However, the structural organization of their knowledge remains unexplored. Inspired by cognitive neuroscience findings, such as semantic clustering and priming, where knowing one fact increases the likelihood of recalling related facts, we investigate an analogous knowledge homophily pattern in LLMs. To this end, we map LLM knowledge into a graph representation through knowledge checking at both the triplet and entity levels. After that, we analyze the knowledgeability relationship between an entity and its neighbors, discovering that LLMs tend to possess a similar level of knowledge about entities positioned closer in the graph. Motivated by this homophily principle, we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) regression model to estimate entity-level knowledgeability scores for triplets by leveraging their neighborhood scores. The predicted knowledgeability enables us to prioritize checking less well-known triplets, thereby maximizing knowledge coverage under the same labeling budget. This not only improves the efficiency of active labeling for fine-tuning to inject knowledge into LLMs but also enhances multi-hop path retrieval in reasoning-intensive question answering.

Language models have demonstrated impressive ability in context understanding and generative performance. Inspired by the recent success of language foundation models, in this paper, we propose LMTraj (Language-based Multimodal Trajectory predictor), which recasts the trajectory prediction task into a sort of question-answering problem. Departing from traditional numerical regression models, which treat the trajectory coordinate sequence as continuous signals, we consider them as discrete signals like text prompts. Specially, we first transform an input space for the trajectory coordinate into the natural language space. Here, the entire time-series trajectories of pedestrians are converted into a text prompt, and scene images are described as text information through image captioning. The transformed numerical and image data are then wrapped into the question-answering template for use in a language model. Next, to guide the language model in understanding and reasoning high-level knowledge, such as scene context and social relationships between pedestrians, we introduce an auxiliary multi-task question and answering. We then train a numerical tokenizer with the prompt data. We encourage the tokenizer to separate the integer and decimal parts well, and leverage it to capture correlations between the consecutive numbers in the language model. Lastly, we train the language model using the numerical tokenizer and all of the question-answer prompts. Here, we propose a beam-search-based most-likely prediction and a temperature-based multimodal prediction to implement both deterministic and stochastic inferences. Applying our LMTraj, we show that the language-based model can be a powerful pedestrian trajectory predictor, and outperforms existing numerical-based predictor methods. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/LMTrajectory .

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

Neural multivariate regression underpins a wide range of domains such as control, robotics, and finance, yet the geometry of its learned representations remains poorly characterized. While neural collapse has been shown to benefit generalization in classification, we find that analogous collapse in regression consistently degrades performance. To explain this contrast, we analyze models through the lens of intrinsic dimension. Across control tasks and synthetic datasets, we estimate the intrinsic dimension of last-layer features (ID_H) and compare it with that of the regression targets (ID_Y). Collapsed models exhibit ID_H < ID_Y, leading to over-compression and poor generalization, whereas non-collapsed models typically maintain ID_H > ID_Y. For the non-collapsed models, performance with respect to ID_H depends on the data quantity and noise levels. From these observations, we identify two regimes (over-compressed and under-compressed) that determine when expanding or reducing feature dimensionality improves performance. Our results provide new geometric insights into neural regression and suggest practical strategies for enhancing generalization.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

With the introduction of data protection and privacy regulations, it has become crucial to remove the lineage of data on demand from a machine learning (ML) model. In the last few years, there have been notable developments in machine unlearning to remove the information of certain training data efficiently and effectively from ML models. In this work, we explore unlearning for the regression problem, particularly in deep learning models. Unlearning in classification and simple linear regression has been considerably investigated. However, unlearning in deep regression models largely remains an untouched problem till now. In this work, we introduce deep regression unlearning methods that generalize well and are robust to privacy attacks. We propose the Blindspot unlearning method which uses a novel weight optimization process. A randomly initialized model, partially exposed to the retain samples and a copy of the original model are used together to selectively imprint knowledge about the data that we wish to keep and scrub off the information of the data we wish to forget. We also propose a Gaussian fine tuning method for regression unlearning. The existing unlearning metrics for classification are not directly applicable to regression unlearning. Therefore, we adapt these metrics for the regression setting. We conduct regression unlearning experiments for computer vision, natural language processing and forecasting applications. Our methods show excellent performance for all these datasets across all the metrics. Source code: https://github.com/ayu987/deep-regression-unlearning

Despite the success of neural networks (NNs), there is still a concern among many over their "black box" nature. Why do they work? Here we present a simple analytic argument that NNs are in fact essentially polynomial regression models. This view will have various implications for NNs, e.g. providing an explanation for why convergence problems arise in NNs, and it gives rough guidance on avoiding overfitting. In addition, we use this phenomenon to predict and confirm a multicollinearity property of NNs not previously reported in the literature. Most importantly, given this loose correspondence, one may choose to routinely use polynomial models instead of NNs, thus avoiding some major problems of the latter, such as having to set many tuning parameters and dealing with convergence issues. We present a number of empirical results; in each case, the accuracy of the polynomial approach matches or exceeds that of NN approaches. A many-featured, open-source software package, polyreg, is available.

Designing robust systems for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. Even more challenging is to build a system for constructing an optimum portfolio of stocks based on the forecasted future stock prices. We present a deep learning-based regression model built on a long-and-short-term memory network (LSTM) network that automatically scraps the web and extracts historical stock prices based on a stock's ticker name for a specified pair of start and end dates, and forecasts the future stock prices. We deploy the model on 75 significant stocks chosen from 15 critical sectors of the Indian stock market. For each of the stocks, the model is evaluated for its forecast accuracy. Moreover, the predicted values of the stock prices are used as the basis for investment decisions, and the returns on the investments are computed. Extensive results are presented on the performance of the model. The analysis of the results demonstrates the efficacy and effectiveness of the system and enables us to compare the profitability of the sectors from the point of view of the investors in the stock market.

Accurate plant counting provides valuable information for agriculture such as crop yield prediction, plant density assessment, and phenotype quantification. Vision-based approaches are currently the mainstream solution. Prior art typically uses a detection or a regression model to count a specific plant. However, plants have biodiversity, and new cultivars are increasingly bred each year. It is almost impossible to exhaust and build all species-dependent counting models. Inspired by class-agnostic counting (CAC) in computer vision, we argue that it is time to rethink the problem formulation of plant counting, from what plants to count to how to count plants. In contrast to most daily objects with spatial and temporal invariance, plants are dynamic, changing with time and space. Their non-rigid structure often leads to worse performance than counting rigid instances like heads and cars such that current CAC and open-world detection models are suboptimal to count plants. In this work, we inherit the vein of the TasselNet plant counting model and introduce a new extension, TasselNetV4, shifting from species-specific counting to cross-species counting. TasselNetV4 marries the local counting idea of TasselNet with the extract-and-match paradigm in CAC. It builds upon a plain vision transformer and incorporates novel multi-branch box-aware local counters used to enhance cross-scale robustness. Two challenging datasets, PAC-105 and PAC-Somalia, are harvested. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art CAC models show that TasselNetV4 achieves not only superior counting performance but also high efficiency.Our results indicate that TasselNetV4 emerges to be a vision foundation model for cross-scene, cross-scale, and cross-species plant counting.

The composition of pre-training datasets for large language models (LLMs) remains largely undisclosed, hindering transparency and efforts to optimize data quality, a critical driver of model performance. Current data selection methods, such as natural language quality assessments, diversity-based filters, and classifier-based approaches, are limited by single-dimensional evaluation or redundancy-focused strategies. To address these gaps, we propose four dimensions to evaluate data quality: professionalism, readability, reasoning, and cleanliness. We further introduce Meta-rater,a multi-dimensional data selection method that integrates these dimensions with existing quality metrics through learned optimal weightings. Meta-rater employs proxy models to train a regression model that predicts validation loss, enabling the identification of optimal combinations of quality scores. Experiments demonstrate that Meta-rater doubles convergence speed for 1.3B parameter models and improves downstream task performance by 3.23, with advantages that scale to models as large as 7.2B parameters. Our work establishes that holistic, multi-dimensional quality integration significantly outperforms conventional single-dimension approaches, offering a scalable paradigm for enhancing pre-training efficiency and model capability. To advance future research, we release scripts, data, and models at https://github.com/opendatalab/Meta-rater.

Tuning the regularization parameter in penalized regression models is an expensive task, requiring multiple models to be fit along a path of parameters. Strong screening rules drastically reduce computational costs by lowering the dimensionality of the input prior to fitting. We develop strong screening rules for group-based Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation (SLOPE) models: Group SLOPE and Sparse-group SLOPE. The developed rules are applicable to the wider family of group-based OWL models, including OSCAR. Our experiments on both synthetic and real data show that the screening rules significantly accelerate the fitting process. The screening rules make it accessible for group SLOPE and sparse-group SLOPE to be applied to high-dimensional datasets, particularly those encountered in genetics.

Designing robust frameworks for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. The advocates of the classical efficient market hypothesis affirm that it is impossible to accurately predict the future prices in an efficiently operating market due to the stochastic nature of the stock price variables. However, numerous propositions exist in the literature with varying degrees of sophistication and complexity that illustrate how algorithms and models can be designed for making efficient, accurate, and robust predictions of stock prices. We present a gamut of ten deep learning models of regression for precise and robust prediction of the future prices of the stock of a critical company in the auto sector of India. Using a very granular stock price collected at 5 minutes intervals, we train the models based on the records from 31st Dec, 2012 to 27th Dec, 2013. The testing of the models is done using records from 30th Dec, 2013 to 9th Jan 2015. We explain the design principles of the models and analyze the results of their performance based on accuracy in forecasting and speed of execution.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Talking head generation is a significant research topic that still faces numerous challenges. Previous works often adopt generative adversarial networks or regression models, which are plagued by generation quality and average facial shape problem. Although diffusion models show impressive generative ability, their exploration in talking head generation remains unsatisfactory. This is because they either solely use the diffusion model to obtain an intermediate representation and then employ another pre-trained renderer, or they overlook the feature decoupling of complex facial details, such as expressions, head poses and appearance textures. Therefore, we propose a Facial Decoupled Diffusion model for Talking head generation called FD2Talk, which fully leverages the advantages of diffusion models and decouples the complex facial details through multi-stages. Specifically, we separate facial details into motion and appearance. In the initial phase, we design the Diffusion Transformer to accurately predict motion coefficients from raw audio. These motions are highly decoupled from appearance, making them easier for the network to learn compared to high-dimensional RGB images. Subsequently, in the second phase, we encode the reference image to capture appearance textures. The predicted facial and head motions and encoded appearance then serve as the conditions for the Diffusion UNet, guiding the frame generation. Benefiting from decoupling facial details and fully leveraging diffusion models, extensive experiments substantiate that our approach excels in enhancing image quality and generating more accurate and diverse results compared to previous state-of-the-art methods.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

We are exposed to much information trying to influence us, such as teaser messages, debates, politically framed news, and propaganda - all of which use persuasive language. With the recent interest in Large Language Models (LLMs), we study the ability of LLMs to produce persuasive text. As opposed to prior work which focuses on particular domains or types of persuasion, we conduct a general study across various domains to measure and benchmark to what degree LLMs produce persuasive text - both when explicitly instructed to rewrite text to be more or less persuasive and when only instructed to paraphrase. To this end, we construct a new dataset, Persuasive-Pairs, of pairs each consisting of a short text and of a text rewritten by an LLM to amplify or diminish persuasive language. We multi-annotate the pairs on a relative scale for persuasive language. This data is not only a valuable resource in itself, but we also show that it can be used to train a regression model to predict a score of persuasive language between text pairs. This model can score and benchmark new LLMs across domains, thereby facilitating the comparison of different LLMs. Finally, we discuss effects observed for different system prompts. Notably, we find that different 'personas' in the system prompt of LLaMA3 change the persuasive language in the text substantially, even when only instructed to paraphrase. These findings underscore the importance of investigating persuasive language in LLM generated text.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

We propose a method to optimize language model pre-training data mixtures through efficient approximation of the cross-entropy loss corresponding to each candidate mixture via a Mixture of Data Experts (MDE). We use this approximation as a source of additional features in a regression model, trained from observations of model loss for a small number of mixtures. Experiments with Transformer decoder-only language models in the range of 70M to 1B parameters on the SlimPajama dataset show that our method achieves significantly better performance than approaches that train regression models using only the mixture rates as input features. Combining this improved optimization method with an objective that takes into account cross-entropy on end task data leads to superior performance on few-shot downstream evaluations. We also provide theoretical insights on why aggregation of data expert predictions can provide good approximations to model losses for data mixtures.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Numerous studies in the field of music generation have demonstrated impressive performance, yet virtually no models are able to directly generate music to match accompanying videos. In this work, we develop a generative music AI framework, Video2Music, that can match a provided video. We first curated a unique collection of music videos. Then, we analysed the music videos to obtain semantic, scene offset, motion, and emotion features. These distinct features are then employed as guiding input to our music generation model. We transcribe the audio files into MIDI and chords, and extract features such as note density and loudness. This results in a rich multimodal dataset, called MuVi-Sync, on which we train a novel Affective Multimodal Transformer (AMT) model to generate music given a video. This model includes a novel mechanism to enforce affective similarity between video and music. Finally, post-processing is performed based on a biGRU-based regression model to estimate note density and loudness based on the video features. This ensures a dynamic rendering of the generated chords with varying rhythm and volume. In a thorough experiment, we show that our proposed framework can generate music that matches the video content in terms of emotion. The musical quality, along with the quality of music-video matching is confirmed in a user study. The proposed AMT model, along with the new MuVi-Sync dataset, presents a promising step for the new task of music generation for videos.

Language model performance depends on identifying the optimal mixture of data groups to train on (e.g., law, code, math). Prior work has proposed a diverse set of methods to efficiently learn mixture proportions, ranging from fitting regression models over training runs to dynamically updating proportions throughout training. Surprisingly, we find that no existing method consistently outperforms a simple stratified sampling baseline in terms of average test perplexity. To understand this inconsistency, we unify existing methods into a standard framework, showing they are equivalent to solving a common optimization problem: minimize average loss subject to a method-specific mixing law -- an implicit assumption on the relationship between loss and mixture proportions. This framework suggests that measuring the fidelity of a method's mixing law can offer insights into its performance. Empirically, we find that existing methods set their mixing law parameters inaccurately, resulting in the inconsistent mixing performance we observe. Using this insight, we derive a new online method named Aioli, which directly estimates the mixing law parameters throughout training and uses them to dynamically adjust proportions. Aioli outperforms stratified sampling on 6 out of 6 datasets by an average of 0.27 test perplexity points, whereas existing methods fail to consistently beat stratified sampling, doing up to 6.9 points worse. Moreover, in a practical setting where proportions are learned on shorter runs due to computational constraints, Aioli can dynamically adjust these proportions over the full training run, consistently improving performance over existing methods by up to 12.012 test perplexity points.

Choosing optimal maskers for existing soundscapes to effect a desired perceptual change via soundscape augmentation is non-trivial due to extensive varieties of maskers and a dearth of benchmark datasets with which to compare and develop soundscape augmentation models. To address this problem, we make publicly available the ARAUS (Affective Responses to Augmented Urban Soundscapes) dataset, which comprises a five-fold cross-validation set and independent test set totaling 25,440 unique subjective perceptual responses to augmented soundscapes presented as audio-visual stimuli. Each augmented soundscape is made by digitally adding "maskers" (bird, water, wind, traffic, construction, or silence) to urban soundscape recordings at fixed soundscape-to-masker ratios. Responses were then collected by asking participants to rate how pleasant, annoying, eventful, uneventful, vibrant, monotonous, chaotic, calm, and appropriate each augmented soundscape was, in accordance with ISO 12913-2:2018. Participants also provided relevant demographic information and completed standard psychological questionnaires. We perform exploratory and statistical analysis of the responses obtained to verify internal consistency and agreement with known results in the literature. Finally, we demonstrate the benchmarking capability of the dataset by training and comparing four baseline models for urban soundscape pleasantness: a low-parameter regression model, a high-parameter convolutional neural network, and two attention-based networks in the literature.

The data mixture used in the pre-training of a language model is a cornerstone of its final performance. However, a static mixing strategy is suboptimal, as the model's learning preferences for various data domains shift dynamically throughout training. Crucially, observing these evolving preferences in a computationally efficient manner remains a significant challenge. To address this, we propose TiKMiX, a method that dynamically adjusts the data mixture according to the model's evolving preferences. TiKMiX introduces Group Influence, an efficient metric for evaluating the impact of data domains on the model. This metric enables the formulation of the data mixing problem as a search for an optimal, influence-maximizing distribution. We solve this via two approaches: TiKMiX-D for direct optimization, and TiKMiX-M, which uses a regression model to predict a superior mixture. We trained models with different numbers of parameters, on up to 1 trillion tokens. TiKMiX-D exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art methods like REGMIX while using just 20% of the computational resources. TiKMiX-M leads to an average performance gain of 2% across 9 downstream benchmarks. Our experiments reveal that a model's data preferences evolve with training progress and scale, and we demonstrate that dynamically adjusting the data mixture based on Group Influence, a direct measure of these preferences, significantly improves performance by mitigating the underdigestion of data seen with static ratios.

Aiming to generalize the label knowledge from a source domain with continuous outputs to an unlabeled target domain, Domain Adaptation Regression (DAR) is developed for complex practical learning problems. However, due to the continuity problem in regression, existing conditional distribution alignment theory and methods with discrete prior, which are proven to be effective in classification settings, are no longer applicable. In this work, focusing on the feasibility problems in DAR, we establish the sufficiency theory for the regression model, which shows the generalization error can be sufficiently dominated by the cross-domain conditional discrepancy. Further, to characterize conditional discrepancy with continuous conditioning variable, a novel Conditional Operator Discrepancy (COD) is proposed, which admits the metric property on conditional distributions via the kernel embedding theory. Finally, to minimize the discrepancy, a COD-based conditional invariant representation learning model is proposed, and the reformulation is derived to show that reasonable modifications on moment statistics can further improve the discriminability of the adaptation model. Extensive experiments on standard DAR datasets verify the validity of theoretical results and the superiority over SOTA DAR methods.

Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal propositions in the literature demonstrating accurate modeling of the predictive systems that can enable us to predict stock prices with a very high level of accuracy. In this paper, we present a suite of deep learning-based regression models that yields a very high level of accuracy in stock price prediction. To build our predictive models, we use the historical stock price data of a well-known company listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India during the period December 31, 2012 to January 9, 2015. The stock prices are recorded at five minutes intervals of time during each working day in a week. Using these extremely granular stock price data, we build four convolutional neural network (CNN) and five long- and short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning models for accurate forecasting of the future stock prices. We provide detailed results on the forecasting accuracies of all our proposed models based on their execution time and their root mean square error (RMSE) values.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.

Sleep is a complex physiological process evaluated through various modalities recording electrical brain, cardiac, and respiratory activities. We curate a large polysomnography dataset from over 14,000 participants comprising over 100,000 hours of multi-modal sleep recordings. Leveraging this extensive dataset, we developed SleepFM, the first multi-modal foundation model for sleep analysis. We show that a novel leave-one-out approach for contrastive learning significantly improves downstream task performance compared to representations from standard pairwise contrastive learning. A logistic regression model trained on SleepFM's learned embeddings outperforms an end-to-end trained convolutional neural network (CNN) on sleep stage classification (macro AUROC 0.88 vs 0.72 and macro AUPRC 0.72 vs 0.48) and sleep disordered breathing detection (AUROC 0.85 vs 0.69 and AUPRC 0.77 vs 0.61). Notably, the learned embeddings achieve 48% top-1 average accuracy in retrieving the corresponding recording clips of other modalities from 90,000 candidates. This work demonstrates the value of holistic multi-modal sleep modeling to fully capture the richness of sleep recordings. SleepFM is open source and available at https://github.com/rthapa84/sleepfm-codebase.

We propose two novel purpose-built deep learning (DL) models for synthesis of the arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveform in a cuff-less manner, using a single-site photoplethysmography (PPG) signal. We utilize the public UCI dataset on cuff-less blood pressure (CLBP) estimation to train and evaluate our DL models. Firstly, we implement a transformer model that incorporates positional encoding, multi-head attention, layer normalization, and dropout techniques, and synthesizes the ABP waveform with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14. Secondly, we implement a frequency-domain (FD) learning approach where we first obtain the discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of the PPG and ABP signals corresponding to two cardiac cycles, and then learn a linear/non-linear (L/NL) regression between them. We learn that the FD L/NL regression model outperforms the transformer model by achieving an MAE of 11.87 and 8.01, for diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP), respectively. Our FD L/NL regression model also fulfills the AAMI criterion of utilizing data from more than 85 subjects, and achieves grade B by the BHS criterion.

Preference mechanisms, such as human preference, LLM-as-a-Judge (LaaJ), and reward models, are central to aligning and evaluating large language models (LLMs). Yet, the underlying concepts that drive these preferences remain poorly understood. In this work, we propose a fully automated method for generating local and global concept-based explanations of preferences across multiple domains. Our method utilizes an LLM to identify concepts that distinguish between chosen and rejected responses, and to represent them with concept-based vectors. To model the relationships between concepts and preferences, we propose a white-box Hierarchical Multi-Domain Regression model that captures both domain-general and domain-specific effects. To evaluate our method, we curate a dataset spanning eight challenging and diverse domains and explain twelve mechanisms. Our method achieves strong preference prediction performance, outperforming baselines while also being explainable. Additionally, we assess explanations in two application-driven settings. First, guiding LLM outputs with concepts from LaaJ explanations yields responses that those judges consistently prefer. Second, prompting LaaJs with concepts explaining humans improves their preference predictions. Together, our work establishes a new paradigm for explainability in the era of LLMs.

We present the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD), a new reading comprehension dataset consisting of 100,000+ questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to each question is a segment of text from the corresponding reading passage. We analyze the dataset to understand the types of reasoning required to answer the questions, leaning heavily on dependency and constituency trees. We build a strong logistic regression model, which achieves an F1 score of 51.0%, a significant improvement over a simple baseline (20%). However, human performance (86.8%) is much higher, indicating that the dataset presents a good challenge problem for future research. The dataset is freely available at https://stanford-qa.com

Scene flow estimation is a long-standing problem in computer vision, where the goal is to find the 3D motion of a scene from its consecutive observations. Recently, there have been efforts to compute the scene flow from 3D point clouds. A common approach is to train a regression model that consumes source and target point clouds and outputs the per-point translation vector. An alternative is to learn point matches between the point clouds concurrently with regressing a refinement of the initial correspondence flow. In both cases, the learning task is very challenging since the flow regression is done in the free 3D space, and a typical solution is to resort to a large annotated synthetic dataset. We introduce SCOOP, a new method for scene flow estimation that can be learned on a small amount of data without employing ground-truth flow supervision. In contrast to previous work, we train a pure correspondence model focused on learning point feature representation and initialize the flow as the difference between a source point and its softly corresponding target point. Then, in the run-time phase, we directly optimize a flow refinement component with a self-supervised objective, which leads to a coherent and accurate flow field between the point clouds. Experiments on widespread datasets demonstrate the performance gains achieved by our method compared to existing leading techniques while using a fraction of the training data. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/itailang/SCOOP.

Multi-channel imaging data is a prevalent data format in scientific fields such as astronomy and biology. The structured information and the high dimensionality of these 3-D tensor data makes the analysis an intriguing but challenging topic for statisticians and practitioners. The low-rank scalar-on-tensor regression model, in particular, has received widespread attention and has been re-formulated as a tensor Gaussian Process (Tensor-GP) model with multi-linear kernel in Yu et al. (2018). In this paper, we extend the Tensor-GP model by integrating a dimensionality reduction technique, called tensor contraction, with a Tensor-GP for a scalar-on-tensor regression task with multi-channel imaging data. This is motivated by the solar flare forecasting problem with high dimensional multi-channel imaging data. We first estimate a latent, reduced-size tensor for each data tensor and then apply a multi-linear Tensor-GP on the latent tensor data for prediction. We introduce an anisotropic total-variation regularization when conducting the tensor contraction to obtain a sparse and smooth latent tensor. We then propose an alternating proximal gradient descent algorithm for estimation. We validate our approach via extensive simulation studies and applying it to the solar flare forecasting problem.

Speech-driven 3D facial animation is challenging due to the scarcity of large-scale visual-audio datasets despite extensive research. Most prior works, typically focused on learning regression models on a small dataset using the method of least squares, encounter difficulties generating diverse lip movements from speech and require substantial effort in refining the generated outputs. To address these issues, we propose a speech-driven 3D facial animation with a diffusion model (SAiD), a lightweight Transformer-based U-Net with a cross-modality alignment bias between audio and visual to enhance lip synchronization. Moreover, we introduce BlendVOCA, a benchmark dataset of pairs of speech audio and parameters of a blendshape facial model, to address the scarcity of public resources. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves comparable or superior performance in lip synchronization to baselines, ensures more diverse lip movements, and streamlines the animation editing process.

Recent advances to combine structured regression models and deep neural networks for better interpretability, more expressiveness, and statistically valid uncertainty quantification demonstrate the versatility of semi-structured neural networks (SSNs). We show that techniques to properly identify the contributions of the different model components in SSNs, however, lead to suboptimal network estimation, slower convergence, and degenerated or erroneous predictions. In order to solve these problems while preserving favorable model properties, we propose a non-invasive post-hoc orthogonalization (PHO) that guarantees identifiability of model components and provides better estimation and prediction quality. Our theoretical findings are supported by numerical experiments, a benchmark comparison as well as a real-world application to COVID-19 infections.

Every day, the human brain processes an immense volume of visual information, relying on intricate neural mechanisms to perceive and interpret these stimuli. Recent breakthroughs in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have enabled scientists to extract visual information from human brain activity patterns. In this study, we present an innovative method for decoding brain activity into meaningful images and captions, with a specific focus on brain captioning due to its enhanced flexibility as compared to brain decoding into images. Our approach takes advantage of cutting-edge image captioning models and incorporates a unique image reconstruction pipeline that utilizes latent diffusion models and depth estimation. We utilized the Natural Scenes Dataset, a comprehensive fMRI dataset from eight subjects who viewed images from the COCO dataset. We employed the Generative Image-to-text Transformer (GIT) as our backbone for captioning and propose a new image reconstruction pipeline based on latent diffusion models. The method involves training regularized linear regression models between brain activity and extracted features. Additionally, we incorporated depth maps from the ControlNet model to further guide the reconstruction process. We evaluate our methods using quantitative metrics for both generated captions and images. Our brain captioning approach outperforms existing methods, while our image reconstruction pipeline generates plausible images with improved spatial relationships. In conclusion, we demonstrate significant progress in brain decoding, showcasing the enormous potential of integrating vision and language to better understand human cognition. Our approach provides a flexible platform for future research, with potential applications in various fields, including neural art, style transfer, and portable devices.

Research related to automatically detecting Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important, given the high prevalence of AD and the high cost of traditional methods. Since AD significantly affects the content and acoustics of spontaneous speech, natural language processing and machine learning provide promising techniques for reliably detecting AD. We compare and contrast the performance of two such approaches for AD detection on the recent ADReSS challenge dataset: 1) using domain knowledge-based hand-crafted features that capture linguistic and acoustic phenomena, and 2) fine-tuning Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT)-based sequence classification models. We also compare multiple feature-based regression models for a neuropsychological score task in the challenge. We observe that fine-tuned BERT models, given the relative importance of linguistics in cognitive impairment detection, outperform feature-based approaches on the AD detection task.

Enhancing the intelligibility and interpretability of machine learning is a crucial task in responding to the demand for Explicability as an AI principle, and in promoting the better social implementation of AI. The aim of our research is to contribute to this improvement by reformulating machine learning models through the lens of category theory, thereby developing a semantic framework for structuring and understanding AI systems. Our categorical modeling in this paper clarifies and formalizes the structural interplay between residuals and parameters in supervised learning. The present paper focuses on the multiple linear regression model, which represents the most basic form of supervised learning. By defining two concrete categories corresponding to parameters and data, along with an adjoint pair of functors between them, we introduce our categorical formulation of supervised learning. We show that the essential structure of this framework is captured by what we call the Gauss-Markov Adjunction. Within this setting, the dual flow of information can be explicitly described as a correspondence between variations in parameters and residuals. The ordinary least squares estimator for the parameters and the minimum residual are related via the preservation of limits by the right adjoint functor. Furthermore, we position this formulation as an instance of extended denotational semantics for supervised learning, and propose applying a semantic perspective developed in theoretical computer science as a formal foundation for Explicability in AI.

Generalizing to out-of-distribution (OOD) data or unseen domain, termed OOD generalization, still lacks appropriate theoretical guarantees. Canonical OOD bounds focus on different distance measurements between source and target domains but fail to consider the optimization property of the learned model. As empirically shown in recent work, the sharpness of learned minima influences OOD generalization. To bridge this gap between optimization and OOD generalization, we study the effect of sharpness on how a model tolerates data change in domain shift which is usually captured by "robustness" in generalization. In this paper, we give a rigorous connection between sharpness and robustness, which gives better OOD guarantees for robust algorithms. It also provides a theoretical backing for "flat minima leads to better OOD generalization". Overall, we propose a sharpness-based OOD generalization bound by taking robustness into consideration, resulting in a tighter bound than non-robust guarantees. Our findings are supported by the experiments on a ridge regression model, as well as the experiments on deep learning classification tasks.

This paper introduces a novel human pose estimation approach using sparse inertial sensors, addressing the shortcomings of previous methods reliant on synthetic data. It leverages a diverse array of real inertial motion capture data from different skeleton formats to improve motion diversity and model generalization. This method features two innovative components: a pseudo-velocity regression model for dynamic motion capture with inertial sensors, and a part-based model dividing the body and sensor data into three regions, each focusing on their unique characteristics. The approach demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art models across five public datasets, notably reducing pose error by 19\% on the DIP-IMU dataset, thus representing a significant improvement in inertial sensor-based human pose estimation. Our codes are available at {https://github.com/dx118/dynaip}.

Research community has witnessed substantial growth in the detection of mental health issues and their associated reasons from analysis of social media. We introduce a new dataset for Causal Analysis of Mental health issues in Social media posts (CAMS). Our contributions for causal analysis are two-fold: causal interpretation and causal categorization. We introduce an annotation schema for this task of causal analysis. We demonstrate the efficacy of our schema on two different datasets: (i) crawling and annotating 3155 Reddit posts and (ii) re-annotating the publicly available SDCNL dataset of 1896 instances for interpretable causal analysis. We further combine these into the CAMS dataset and make this resource publicly available along with associated source code: https://github.com/drmuskangarg/CAMS. We present experimental results of models learned from CAMS dataset and demonstrate that a classic Logistic Regression model outperforms the next best (CNN-LSTM) model by 4.9\% accuracy.

Neural Architecture Search methods are effective but often use complex algorithms to come up with the best architecture. We propose an approach with three basic steps that is conceptually much simpler. First we train N random architectures to generate N (architecture, validation accuracy) pairs and use them to train a regression model that predicts accuracy based on the architecture. Next, we use this regression model to predict the validation accuracies of a large number of random architectures. Finally, we train the top-K predicted architectures and deploy the model with the best validation result. While this approach seems simple, it is more than 20 times as sample efficient as Regularized Evolution on the NASBench-101 benchmark and can compete on ImageNet with more complex approaches based on weight sharing, such as ProxylessNAS.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, over a period of four years, from January 2015 till December 2019. Based on the NIFTY data during the said period, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the Close value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual Close values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

Introduction: Electronic health records (EHR) are a critical medium through which patient stigmatization is perpetuated among healthcare teams. Methods: We identified linguistic features of doubt markers and stigmatizing labels in MIMIC-III EHR via expanded lexicon matching and supervised learning classifiers. Predictors of rates of linguistic features were assessed using Poisson regression models. Results: We found higher rates of stigmatizing labels per chart among patients who were Black or African American (RR: 1.16), patients with Medicare/Medicaid or government-run insurance (RR: 2.46), self-pay (RR: 2.12), and patients with a variety of stigmatizing disease and mental health conditions. Patterns among doubt markers were similar, though male patients had higher rates of doubt markers (RR: 1.25). We found increased stigmatizing labels used by nurses (RR: 1.40), and social workers (RR: 2.25), with similar patterns of doubt markers. Discussion: Stigmatizing language occurred at higher rates among historically stigmatized patients, perpetuated by multiple provider types.

Plant traits such as leaf carbon content and leaf mass are essential variables in the study of biodiversity and climate change. However, conventional field sampling cannot feasibly cover trait variation at ecologically meaningful spatial scales. Machine learning represents a valuable solution for plant trait prediction across ecosystems, leveraging hyperspectral data from remote sensing. Nevertheless, trait prediction from hyperspectral data is challenged by label scarcity and substantial domain shifts (\eg across sensors, ecological distributions), requiring robust cross-domain methods. Here, we present GreenHyperSpectra, a pretraining dataset encompassing real-world cross-sensor and cross-ecosystem samples designed to benchmark trait prediction with semi- and self-supervised methods. We adopt an evaluation framework encompassing in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios. We successfully leverage GreenHyperSpectra to pretrain label-efficient multi-output regression models that outperform the state-of-the-art supervised baseline. Our empirical analyses demonstrate substantial improvements in learning spectral representations for trait prediction, establishing a comprehensive methodological framework to catalyze research at the intersection of representation learning and plant functional traits assessment. All code and data are available at: https://github.com/echerif18/HyspectraSSL.

Neural field methods have seen great progress in various long-standing tasks in computer vision and computer graphics, including novel view synthesis and geometry reconstruction. As existing neural field methods try to predict some coordinate-based continuous target values, such as RGB for Neural Radiance Field (NeRF), all of these methods are regression models and are optimized by some regression loss. However, are regression models really better than classification models for neural field methods? In this work, we try to visit this very fundamental but overlooked question for neural fields from a machine learning perspective. We successfully propose a novel Neural Field Classifier (NFC) framework which formulates existing neural field methods as classification tasks rather than regression tasks. The proposed NFC can easily transform arbitrary Neural Field Regressor (NFR) into its classification variant via employing a novel Target Encoding module and optimizing a classification loss. By encoding a continuous regression target into a high-dimensional discrete encoding, we naturally formulate a multi-label classification task. Extensive experiments demonstrate the impressive effectiveness of NFC at the nearly free extra computational costs. Moreover, NFC also shows robustness to sparse inputs, corrupted images, and dynamic scenes.

While neural networks allow highly accurate predictions in many tasks, their lack of robustness towards even slight input perturbations often hampers their deployment. Adversarial attacks such as the seminal projected gradient descent (PGD) offer an effective means to evaluate a model's robustness and dedicated solutions have been proposed for attacks on semantic segmentation or optical flow estimation. While they attempt to increase the attack's efficiency, a further objective is to balance its effect, so that it acts on the entire image domain instead of isolated point-wise predictions. This often comes at the cost of optimization stability and thus efficiency. Here, we propose CosPGD, an attack that encourages more balanced errors over the entire image domain while increasing the attack's overall efficiency. To this end, CosPGD leverages a simple alignment score computed from any pixel-wise prediction and its target to scale the loss in a smooth and fully differentiable way. It leads to efficient evaluations of a model's robustness for semantic segmentation as well as regression models (such as optical flow, disparity estimation, or image restoration), and it allows it to outperform the previous SotA attack on semantic segmentation. We provide code for the CosPGD algorithm and example usage at https://github.com/shashankskagnihotri/cospgd.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Industrial processes must be robust and adaptable, as environments and tasks are often unpredictable, while operational errors remain costly and difficult to detect. AI-based control systems offer a path forward, yet typically depend on supervised learning with extensive labelled datasets, which limits their ability to generalize across variable and data-scarce industrial settings. Foundation models could enable broader reasoning and knowledge integration, but rarely deliver the quantitative precision demanded by engineering applications. Here, we introduceControl and Interpretation of Production via Hybrid Expertise and Reasoning (CIPHER): a vision-language-action (VLA) model framework aiming to replicate human-like reasoning for industrial control, instantiated in a commercial-grade 3D printer. It integrates a process expert, a regression model enabling quantitative characterization of system states required for engineering tasks. CIPHER also incorporates retrieval-augmented generation to access external expert knowledge and support physics-informed, chain-of-thought reasoning. This hybrid architecture exhibits strong generalization to out-of-distribution tasks. It interprets visual or textual inputs from process monitoring, explains its decisions, and autonomously generates precise machine instructions, without requiring explicit annotations. CIPHER thus lays the foundations for autonomous systems that act with precision, reason with context, and communicate decisions transparently, supporting safe and trusted deployment in industrial settings.

We design learning rate schedules that minimize regret for SGD-based online learning in the presence of a changing data distribution. We fully characterize the optimal learning rate schedule for online linear regression via a novel analysis with stochastic differential equations. For general convex loss functions, we propose new learning rate schedules that are robust to distribution shift, and we give upper and lower bounds for the regret that only differ by constants. For non-convex loss functions, we define a notion of regret based on the gradient norm of the estimated models and propose a learning schedule that minimizes an upper bound on the total expected regret. Intuitively, one expects changing loss landscapes to require more exploration, and we confirm that optimal learning rate schedules typically increase in the presence of distribution shift. Finally, we provide experiments for high-dimensional regression models and neural networks to illustrate these learning rate schedules and their cumulative regret.

A wide range of deep learning-based machine learning techniques are extensively applied to the design of high-entropy alloys (HEAs), yielding numerous valuable insights. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) is a recently developed architecture that aims to improve both the accuracy and interpretability of input features. In this work, we explore three different datasets for HEA design and demonstrate the application of KAN for both classification and regression models. In the first example, we use a KAN classification model to predict the probability of single-phase formation in high-entropy carbide ceramics based on various properties such as mixing enthalpy and valence electron concentration. In the second example, we employ a KAN regression model to predict the yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of HEAs based on their chemical composition and process conditions including annealing time, cold rolling percentage, and homogenization temperature. The third example involves a KAN classification model to determine whether a certain composition is an HEA or non-HEA, followed by a KAN regressor model to predict the bulk modulus of the identified HEA, aiming to identify HEAs with high bulk modulus. In all three examples, KAN either outperform or match the performance in terms of accuracy such as F1 score for classification and Mean Square Error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for regression of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) by demonstrating the efficacy of KAN in handling both classification and regression tasks. We provide a promising direction for future research to explore advanced machine learning techniques, which lead to more accurate predictions and better interpretability of complex materials, ultimately accelerating the discovery and optimization of HEAs with desirable properties.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

The modern surge in camera usage alongside widespread computer vision technology applications poses significant privacy and security concerns. Current artificial intelligence (AI) technologies aid in recognizing relevant events and assisting in daily tasks in homes, offices, hospitals, etc. The need to access or process personal information for these purposes raises privacy concerns. While software-level solutions like face de-identification provide a good privacy/utility trade-off, they present vulnerabilities to sniffing attacks. In this paper, we propose a hardware-level face de-identification method to solve this vulnerability. Specifically, our approach first learns an optical encoder along with a regression model to obtain a face heatmap while hiding the face identity from the source image. We also propose an anonymization framework that generates a new face using the privacy-preserving image, face heatmap, and a reference face image from a public dataset as input. We validate our approach with extensive simulations and hardware experiments.

The global trade in electronic and electrical goods is complicated by the challenge of identifying e-waste, which is often misclassified to evade regulations. Traditional analysis methods struggle to discern the underlying patterns of this illicit trade within vast datasets. This research proposes and validates a robust, data-driven framework to segment products and identify goods exhibiting an anomalous "waste signature" a trade pattern defined by a clear 'inverse price-volume'. The core of the framework is an Outlier-Aware Segmentation method, an iterative K-Means approach that first isolates extreme outliers to prevent data skewing and then re-clusters the remaining products to reveal subtle market segments. To quantify risk, a "Waste Score" is developed using a Logistic Regression model that identifies products whose trade signatures are statistically similar to scrap. The findings reveal a consistent four-tier market hierarchy in both Malaysian and global datasets. A key pattern emerged from a comparative analysis: Malaysia's market structure is defined by high-volume bulk commodities, whereas the global market is shaped by high-value capital goods, indicating a unique national specialization. The framework successfully flags finished goods, such as electric generators (HS 8502), that are traded like scrap, providing a targeted list for regulatory scrutiny.

Recent research shows that when Gradient Descent (GD) is applied to neural networks, the loss almost never decreases monotonically. Instead, the loss oscillates as gradient descent converges to its ''Edge of Stability'' (EoS). Here, we find a quantity that does decrease monotonically throughout GD training: the sharpness attained by the gradient flow solution (GFS)-the solution that would be obtained if, from now until convergence, we train with an infinitesimal step size. Theoretically, we analyze scalar neural networks with the squared loss, perhaps the simplest setting where the EoS phenomena still occur. In this model, we prove that the GFS sharpness decreases monotonically. Using this result, we characterize settings where GD provably converges to the EoS in scalar networks. Empirically, we show that GD monotonically decreases the GFS sharpness in a squared regression model as well as practical neural network architectures.

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

Generative AI raises many societal concerns such as boosting disinformation and propaganda campaigns. Watermarking AI-generated content is a key technology to address these concerns and has been widely deployed in industry. However, watermarking is vulnerable to removal attacks and forgery attacks. In this work, we propose the first image watermarks with certified robustness guarantees against removal and forgery attacks. Our method leverages randomized smoothing, a popular technique to build certifiably robust classifiers and regression models. Our major technical contributions include extending randomized smoothing to watermarking by considering its unique characteristics, deriving the certified robustness guarantees, and designing algorithms to estimate them. Moreover, we extensively evaluate our image watermarks in terms of both certified and empirical robustness. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhengyuan-jiang/Watermark-Library.

Counterexample-guided repair aims at creating neural networks with mathematical safety guarantees, facilitating the application of neural networks in safety-critical domains. However, whether counterexample-guided repair is guaranteed to terminate remains an open question. We approach this question by showing that counterexample-guided repair can be viewed as a robust optimisation algorithm. While termination guarantees for neural network repair itself remain beyond our reach, we prove termination for more restrained machine learning models and disprove termination in a general setting. We empirically study the practical implications of our theoretical results, demonstrating the suitability of common verifiers and falsifiers for repair despite a disadvantageous theoretical result. Additionally, we use our theoretical insights to devise a novel algorithm for repairing linear regression models based on quadratic programming, surpassing existing approaches.

The goal of the change-point detection is to discover changes of time series distribution. One of the state of the art approaches of the change-point detection are based on direct density ratio estimation. In this work we show how existing algorithms can be generalized using various binary classification and regression models. In particular, we show that the Gradient Boosting over Decision Trees and Neural Networks can be used for this purpose. The algorithms are tested on several synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that the proposed methods outperform classical RuLSIF algorithm. Discussion of cases where the proposed algorithms have advantages over existing methods are also provided.

Anomaly detection in supercomputers is a very difficult problem due to the big scale of the systems and the high number of components. The current state of the art for automated anomaly detection employs Machine Learning methods or statistical regression models in a supervised fashion, meaning that the detection tool is trained to distinguish among a fixed set of behaviour classes (healthy and unhealthy states). We propose a novel approach for anomaly detection in High Performance Computing systems based on a Machine (Deep) Learning technique, namely a type of neural network called autoencoder. The key idea is to train a set of autoencoders to learn the normal (healthy) behaviour of the supercomputer nodes and, after training, use them to identify abnormal conditions. This is different from previous approaches which where based on learning the abnormal condition, for which there are much smaller datasets (since it is very hard to identify them to begin with). We test our approach on a real supercomputer equipped with a fine-grained, scalable monitoring infrastructure that can provide large amount of data to characterize the system behaviour. The results are extremely promising: after the training phase to learn the normal system behaviour, our method is capable of detecting anomalies that have never been seen before with a very good accuracy (values ranging between 88% and 96%).

We develop a novel, general and computationally efficient framework, called Divide and Conquer Dynamic Programming (DCDP), for localizing change points in time series data with high-dimensional features. DCDP deploys a class of greedy algorithms that are applicable to a broad variety of high-dimensional statistical models and can enjoy almost linear computational complexity. We investigate the performance of DCDP in three commonly studied change point settings in high dimensions: the mean model, the Gaussian graphical model, and the linear regression model. In all three cases, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for the accuracy of the DCDP change point estimators. We demonstrate that the DCDP procedures consistently estimate the change points with sharp, and in some cases, optimal rates while incurring significantly smaller computational costs than the best available algorithms. Our findings are supported by extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data.

We present Recurrent Fitting (ReFit), a neural network architecture for single-image, parametric 3D human reconstruction. ReFit learns a feedback-update loop that mirrors the strategy of solving an inverse problem through optimization. At each iterative step, it reprojects keypoints from the human model to feature maps to query feedback, and uses a recurrent-based updater to adjust the model to fit the image better. Because ReFit encodes strong knowledge of the inverse problem, it is faster to train than previous regression models. At the same time, ReFit improves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks. Moreover, ReFit applies to other optimization settings, such as multi-view fitting and single-view shape fitting. Project website: https://yufu-wang.github.io/refit_humans/

In mixtures-of-experts (ME) model, where a number of submodels (experts) are combined, there have been two longstanding problems: (i) how many experts should be chosen, given the size of the training data? (ii) given the total number of parameters, is it better to use a few very complex experts, or is it better to combine many simple experts? In this paper, we try to provide some insights to these problems through a theoretic study on a ME structure where m experts are mixed, with each expert being related to a polynomial regression model of order k. We study the convergence rate of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), in terms of how fast the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the estimated density converges to the true density, when the sample size n increases. The convergence rate is found to be dependent on both m and k, and certain choices of m and k are found to produce optimal convergence rates. Therefore, these results shed light on the two aforementioned important problems: on how to choose m, and on how m and k should be compromised, for achieving good convergence rates.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values and safety constraints is challenging, especially when objectives like helpfulness, truthfulness, and avoidance of harm conflict. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has achieved notable success in steering models, but is complex and can be unstable. Recent approaches such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) simplify preference-based fine-tuning but may introduce bias or trade-off certain objectives~dpo. In this work, we propose a Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) framework with a multi-label reward regression model to achieve safe and aligned language generation. The GRPO algorithm optimizes a policy by comparing groups of sampled responses, eliminating the need for a separate value critic and improving training efficiency~grpo. We train a reward model to predict multiple alignment scores (e.g., safety, helpfulness, etc.), which are combined into a single reward signal. We provide a theoretical derivation for using this learned multi-aspect reward within GRPO and discuss its advantages and limitations. Empirically, our approach improves all the safety and quality metrics evaluated in language generation tasks on model scales (0.5B, 7B, and 14B parameters), demonstrating a robust balance of objectives. We compare GRPO to PPO-based RLHF and DPO, highlighting that GRPO achieves alignment with significantly lower computational cost and explicit multi-objective handling. \textbf{We will open-source all trained models at https://huggingface.co/hydroxai.

This paper investigates the possibility of high resolution mapping of PM2.5 concentration over Tehran city using high resolution satellite AOD (MAIAC) retrievals. For this purpose, a framework including three main stages, data preprocessing; regression modeling; and model deployment was proposed. The output of the framework was a machine learning model trained to predict PM2.5 from MAIAC AOD retrievals and meteorological data. The results of model testing revealed the efficiency and capability of the developed framework for high resolution mapping of PM2.5, which was not realized in former investigations performed over the city. Thus, this study, for the first time, realized daily, 1 km resolution mapping of PM2.5 in Tehran with R2 around 0.74 and RMSE better than 9.0 mg/m3. Keywords: MAIAC; MODIS; AOD; Machine learning; Deep learning; PM2.5; Regression

Despite well-documented consequences of the U.S. government's 1930s housing policies on racial wealth disparities, scholars have struggled to quantify its precise financial effects due to the inaccessibility of historical property appraisal records. Many counties still store these records in physical formats, making large-scale quantitative analysis difficult. We present an approach scholars can use to digitize historical housing assessment data, applying it to build and release a dataset for one county. Starting from publicly available scanned documents, we manually annotated property cards for over 12,000 properties to train and validate our methods. We use OCR to label data for an additional 50,000 properties, based on our two-stage approach combining classical computer vision techniques with deep learning-based OCR. For cases where OCR cannot be applied, such as when scanned documents are not available, we show how a regression model based on building feature data can estimate the historical values, and test the generalizability of this model to other counties. With these cost-effective tools, scholars, community activists, and policy makers can better analyze and understand the historical impacts of redlining.

Automated fish documentation processes are in the near future expected to play an essential role in sustainable fisheries management and for addressing challenges of overfishing. In this paper, we present a novel and publicly available dataset named AutoFish designed for fine-grained fish analysis. The dataset comprises 1,500 images of 454 specimens of visually similar fish placed in various constellations on a white conveyor belt and annotated with instance segmentation masks, IDs, and length measurements. The data was collected in a controlled environment using an RGB camera. The annotation procedure involved manual point annotations, initial segmentation masks proposed by the Segment Anything Model (SAM), and subsequent manual correction of the masks. We establish baseline instance segmentation results using two variations of the Mask2Former architecture, with the best performing model reaching an mAP of 89.15%. Additionally, we present two baseline length estimation methods, the best performing being a custom MobileNetV2-based regression model reaching an MAE of 0.62cm in images with no occlusion and 1.38cm in images with occlusion. Link to project page: https://vap.aau.dk/autofish/.

Automatic Perceptual Image Quality Assessment is a challenging problem that impacts billions of internet, and social media users daily. To advance research in this field, we propose a Mixture of Experts approach to train two separate encoders to learn high-level content and low-level image quality features in an unsupervised setting. The unique novelty of our approach is its ability to generate low-level representations of image quality that are complementary to high-level features representing image content. We refer to the framework used to train the two encoders as Re-IQA. For Image Quality Assessment in the Wild, we deploy the complementary low and high-level image representations obtained from the Re-IQA framework to train a linear regression model, which is used to map the image representations to the ground truth quality scores, refer Figure 1. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple large-scale image quality assessment databases containing both real and synthetic distortions, demonstrating how deep neural networks can be trained in an unsupervised setting to produce perceptually relevant representations. We conclude from our experiments that the low and high-level features obtained are indeed complementary and positively impact the performance of the linear regressor. A public release of all the codes associated with this work will be made available on GitHub.

Classical machine learning models such as deep neural networks are usually trained by using Stochastic Gradient Descent-based (SGD) algorithms. The classical SGD can be interpreted as a discretization of the stochastic gradient flow. In this paper we propose a novel, robust and accelerated stochastic optimizer that relies on two key elements: (1) an accelerated Nesterov-like Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and (2) its semi-implicit Gauss-Seidel type discretization. The convergence and stability of the obtained method, referred to as NAG-GS, are first studied extensively in the case of the minimization of a quadratic function. This analysis allows us to come up with an optimal learning rate in terms of the convergence rate while ensuring the stability of NAG-GS. This is achieved by the careful analysis of the spectral radius of the iteration matrix and the covariance matrix at stationarity with respect to all hyperparameters of our method. Further, we show that NAG- GS is competitive with state-of-the-art methods such as momentum SGD with weight decay and AdamW for the training of machine learning models such as the logistic regression model, the residual networks models on standard computer vision datasets, Transformers in the frame of the GLUE benchmark and the recent Vision Transformers.

LLM-as-a-judge is a framework in which a large language model (LLM) automatically evaluates the output of another LLM. We propose quantitative LLM judges, which align evaluation scores of existing LLM judges to human scores in a given domain using regression models. The models are trained to improve the score of the original judge by using the judge's textual evaluation and score. We present four quantitative judges for different types of absolute and relative feedback, which showcases the generality and versatility of our framework. Our framework is more computationally efficient than supervised fine-tuning and can be more statistically efficient when human feedback is limited, which is expected in most applications of our work. We validate these claims empirically on four datasets using two base judges. Our experiments show that quantitative judges can effectively improve the predictive power of existing judges through post-hoc modeling.

In 3D human pose and shape estimation, SMPLify remains a robust baseline that solves inverse kinematics (IK) through iterative optimization. However, its high computational cost limits its practicality. Recent advances across domains have shown that replacing iterative optimization with data-driven neural networks can achieve significant runtime improvements without sacrificing accuracy. Motivated by this trend, we propose Learnable SMPLify, a neural framework that replaces the iterative fitting process in SMPLify with a single-pass regression model. The design of our framework targets two core challenges in neural IK: data construction and generalization. To enable effective training, we propose a temporal sampling strategy that constructs initialization-target pairs from sequential frames. To improve generalization across diverse motions and unseen poses, we propose a human-centric normalization scheme and residual learning to narrow the solution space. Learnable SMPLify supports both sequential inference and plug-in post-processing to refine existing image-based estimators. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method establishes itself as a practical and simple baseline: it achieves nearly 200x faster runtime compared to SMPLify, generalizes well to unseen 3DPW and RICH, and operates in a model-agnostic manner when used as a plug-in tool on LucidAction. The code is available at https://github.com/Charrrrrlie/Learnable-SMPLify.

Most papers caution against using predictive models for disease stratification based on unselected radiomic features, as these features are affected by contouring variability. Instead, they advocate for the use of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) as a measure of stability for feature selection. However, the direct effect of segmentation variability on the predictive models is rarely studied. This study investigates the impact of segmentation variability on feature stability and predictive performance in radiomics-based prediction of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A total of 244 images from the Duke dataset were used, with segmentation variability introduced through modifications of manual segmentations. For each mask, explainable radiomic features were selected using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method and used to train logistic regression models. Feature stability across segmentations was assessed via ICC, Pearson's correlation, and reliability scores quantifying the relationship between feature stability and segmentation variability. Results indicate that segmentation accuracy does not significantly impact predictive performance. While incorporating peritumoral information may reduce feature reproducibility, it does not diminish feature predictive capability. Moreover, feature selection in predictive models is not inherently tied to feature stability with respect to segmentation, suggesting that an overreliance on ICC or reliability scores for feature selection might exclude valuable predictive features.

We first adopt a human-guided machine learning framework to develop a new dataset for hyperpartisan news title detection with 2,200 manually labeled and 1.8 million machine-labeled titles that were posted from 2014 to the present by nine representative media organizations across three media bias groups - Left, Central, and Right in an active learning manner. The fine-tuned transformer-based language model achieves an overall accuracy of 0.84 and an F1 score of 0.78 on an external validation set. Next, we conduct a computational analysis to quantify the extent and dynamics of partisanship in news titles. While some aspects are as expected, our study reveals new or nuanced differences between the three media groups. We find that overall the Right media tends to use proportionally more hyperpartisan titles. Roughly around the 2016 Presidential Election, the proportions of hyperpartisan titles increased in all media bias groups where the relative increase in the proportion of hyperpartisan titles of the Left media was the most. We identify three major topics including foreign issues, political systems, and societal issues that are suggestive of hyperpartisanship in news titles using logistic regression models and the Shapley values. Through an analysis of the topic distribution, we find that societal issues gradually receive more attention from all media groups. We further apply a lexicon-based language analysis tool to the titles of each topic and quantify the linguistic distance between any pairs of the three media groups. Three distinct patterns are discovered. The Left media is linguistically more different from Central and Right in terms of foreign issues. The linguistic distance between the three media groups becomes smaller over recent years. In addition, a seasonal pattern where linguistic difference is associated with elections is observed for societal issues.

Facial beauty prediction (FBP) is a significant visual recognition problem to make assessment of facial attractiveness that is consistent to human perception. To tackle this problem, various data-driven models, especially state-of-the-art deep learning techniques, were introduced, and benchmark dataset become one of the essential elements to achieve FBP. Previous works have formulated the recognition of facial beauty as a specific supervised learning problem of classification, regression or ranking, which indicates that FBP is intrinsically a computation problem with multiple paradigms. However, most of FBP benchmark datasets were built under specific computation constrains, which limits the performance and flexibility of the computational model trained on the dataset. In this paper, we argue that FBP is a multi-paradigm computation problem, and propose a new diverse benchmark dataset, called SCUT-FBP5500, to achieve multi-paradigm facial beauty prediction. The SCUT-FBP5500 dataset has totally 5500 frontal faces with diverse properties (male/female, Asian/Caucasian, ages) and diverse labels (face landmarks, beauty scores within [1,~5], beauty score distribution), which allows different computational models with different FBP paradigms, such as appearance-based/shape-based facial beauty classification/regression model for male/female of Asian/Caucasian. We evaluated the SCUT-FBP5500 dataset for FBP using different combinations of feature and predictor, and various deep learning methods. The results indicates the improvement of FBP and the potential applications based on the SCUT-FBP5500.

We study code-to-metric regression: predicting numeric outcomes of code executions, a challenging task due to the open-ended nature of programming languages. While prior methods have resorted to heavy and domain-specific feature engineering, we show that a single unified Regression Language Model (RLM) can simultaneously predict directly from text, (i) the memory footprint of code across multiple high-level languages such as Python and C++, (ii) the latency of Triton GPU kernels, and (iii) the accuracy and speed of trained neural networks represented in ONNX. In particular, a relatively small 300M parameter RLM initialized from T5Gemma, obtains > 0.9 Spearman-rank on competitive programming submissions from APPS, and a single unified model achieves > 0.5 average Spearman-rank across 17 separate languages from CodeNet. Furthermore, the RLM can obtain the highest average Kendall-Tau of 0.46 on five classic NAS design spaces previously dominated by graph neural networks, and simultaneously predict architecture latencies on numerous hardware platforms.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

We present PyMAF-X, a regression-based approach to recovering parametric full-body models from monocular images. This task is very challenging since minor parametric deviation may lead to noticeable misalignment between the estimated mesh and the input image. Moreover, when integrating part-specific estimations into the full-body model, existing solutions tend to either degrade the alignment or produce unnatural wrist poses. To address these issues, we propose a Pyramidal Mesh Alignment Feedback (PyMAF) loop in our regression network for well-aligned human mesh recovery and extend it as PyMAF-X for the recovery of expressive full-body models. The core idea of PyMAF is to leverage a feature pyramid and rectify the predicted parameters explicitly based on the mesh-image alignment status. Specifically, given the currently predicted parameters, mesh-aligned evidence will be extracted from finer-resolution features accordingly and fed back for parameter rectification. To enhance the alignment perception, an auxiliary dense supervision is employed to provide mesh-image correspondence guidance while spatial alignment attention is introduced to enable the awareness of the global contexts for our network. When extending PyMAF for full-body mesh recovery, an adaptive integration strategy is proposed in PyMAF-X to produce natural wrist poses while maintaining the well-aligned performance of the part-specific estimations. The efficacy of our approach is validated on several benchmark datasets for body, hand, face, and full-body mesh recovery, where PyMAF and PyMAF-X effectively improve the mesh-image alignment and achieve new state-of-the-art results. The project page with code and video results can be found at https://www.liuyebin.com/pymaf-x.

We study the problem of single-image zero-shot 3D shape reconstruction. Recent works learn zero-shot shape reconstruction through generative modeling of 3D assets, but these models are computationally expensive at train and inference time. In contrast, the traditional approach to this problem is regression-based, where deterministic models are trained to directly regress the object shape. Such regression methods possess much higher computational efficiency than generative methods. This raises a natural question: is generative modeling necessary for high performance, or conversely, are regression-based approaches still competitive? To answer this, we design a strong regression-based model, called ZeroShape, based on the converging findings in this field and a novel insight. We also curate a large real-world evaluation benchmark, with objects from three different real-world 3D datasets. This evaluation benchmark is more diverse and an order of magnitude larger than what prior works use to quantitatively evaluate their models, aiming at reducing the evaluation variance in our field. We show that ZeroShape not only achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art methods, but also demonstrates significantly higher computational and data efficiency.

Word embeddings have been shown to be useful across state-of-the-art systems in many natural language processing tasks, ranging from question answering systems to dependency parsing. (Herbelot and Vecchi, 2015) explored word embeddings and their utility for modeling language semantics. In particular, they presented an approach to automatically map a standard distributional semantic space onto a set-theoretic model using partial least squares regression. We show in this paper that a simple baseline achieves a +51% relative improvement compared to their model on one of the two datasets they used, and yields competitive results on the second dataset.

Diffusion models (DMs) have recently been introduced in image deblurring and exhibited promising performance, particularly in terms of details reconstruction. However, the diffusion model requires a large number of inference iterations to recover the clean image from pure Gaussian noise, which consumes massive computational resources. Moreover, the distribution synthesized by the diffusion model is often misaligned with the target results, leading to restrictions in distortion-based metrics. To address the above issues, we propose the Hierarchical Integration Diffusion Model (HI-Diff), for realistic image deblurring. Specifically, we perform the DM in a highly compacted latent space to generate the prior feature for the deblurring process. The deblurring process is implemented by a regression-based method to obtain better distortion accuracy. Meanwhile, the highly compact latent space ensures the efficiency of the DM. Furthermore, we design the hierarchical integration module to fuse the prior into the regression-based model from multiple scales, enabling better generalization in complex blurry scenarios. Comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world blur datasets demonstrate that our HI-Diff outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Code and trained models are available at https://github.com/zhengchen1999/HI-Diff.

End-to-end vision-based imitation learning has demonstrated promising results in autonomous driving by learning control commands directly from expert demonstrations. However, traditional approaches rely on either regressionbased models, which provide precise control but lack confidence estimation, or classification-based models, which offer confidence scores but suffer from reduced precision due to discretization. This limitation makes it challenging to quantify the reliability of predicted actions and apply corrections when necessary. In this work, we introduce a dual-head neural network architecture that integrates both regression and classification heads to improve decision reliability in imitation learning. The regression head predicts continuous driving actions, while the classification head estimates confidence, enabling a correction mechanism that adjusts actions in low-confidence scenarios, enhancing driving stability. We evaluate our approach in a closed-loop setting within the CARLA simulator, demonstrating its ability to detect uncertain actions, estimate confidence, and apply real-time corrections. Experimental results show that our method reduces lane deviation and improves trajectory accuracy by up to 50%, outperforming conventional regression-only models. These findings highlight the potential of classification-guided confidence estimation in enhancing the robustness of vision-based imitation learning for autonomous driving. The source code is available at https://github.com/ElaheDlv/Confidence_Aware_IL.

As with many other problems, real-world regression is plagued by the presence of noisy labels, an inevitable issue that demands our attention. Fortunately, much real-world data often exhibits an intrinsic property of continuously ordered correlations between labels and features, where data points with similar labels are also represented with closely related features. In response, we propose a novel approach named ConFrag, where we collectively model the regression data by transforming them into disjoint yet contrasting fragmentation pairs. This enables the training of more distinctive representations, enhancing the ability to select clean samples. Our ConFrag framework leverages a mixture of neighboring fragments to discern noisy labels through neighborhood agreement among expert feature extractors. We extensively perform experiments on six newly curated benchmark datasets of diverse domains, including age prediction, price prediction, and music production year estimation. We also introduce a metric called Error Residual Ratio (ERR) to better account for varying degrees of label noise. Our approach consistently outperforms fourteen state-of-the-art baselines, being robust against symmetric and random Gaussian label noise.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean R^2 score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) has recently emerged as a promising tool for many agricultural applications; however, the technology cannot be directly used in a real-time system due to the extensive time needed to process large volumes of data. Consequently, the development of a simple, compact, and cost-effective imaging system is not possible with the current HSI systems. Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to reconstruct hyperspectral images from RGB images through deep learning for agricultural applications. Specifically, this study used Hyperspectral Convolutional Neural Network - Dense (HSCNN-D) to reconstruct hyperspectral images from RGB images for predicting soluble solid content (SSC) in sweet potatoes. The algorithm accurately reconstructed the hyperspectral images from RGB images, with the resulting spectra closely matching the ground-truth. The partial least squares regression (PLSR) model based on reconstructed spectra outperformed the model using the full spectral range, demonstrating its potential for SSC prediction in sweet potatoes. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning-based hyperspectral image reconstruction as a low-cost, efficient tool for various agricultural uses.

Accurately predicting watch time is crucial for optimizing recommendations and user experience in short video platforms. However, existing methods that estimate a single average watch time often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in user engagement patterns. In this paper, we propose Conditional Quantile Estimation (CQE) to model the entire conditional distribution of watch time. Using quantile regression, CQE characterizes the complex watch-time distribution for each user-video pair, providing a flexible and comprehensive approach to understanding user behavior. We further design multiple strategies to combine the quantile estimates, adapting to different recommendation scenarios and user preferences. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate the superiority of CQE in watch-time prediction and user engagement modeling. Specifically, deploying CQE online on a large-scale platform with hundreds of millions of daily active users has led to substantial gains in key evaluation metrics, including active days, engagement time, and video views. These results highlight the practical impact of our proposed approach in enhancing the user experience and overall performance of the short video recommendation system. The code will be released https://github.com/justopit/CQE.

We study the problem of single-image 3D object reconstruction. Recent works have diverged into two directions: regression-based modeling and generative modeling. Regression methods efficiently infer visible surfaces, but struggle with occluded regions. Generative methods handle uncertain regions better by modeling distributions, but are computationally expensive and the generation is often misaligned with visible surfaces. In this paper, we present SPAR3D, a novel two-stage approach aiming to take the best of both directions. The first stage of SPAR3D generates sparse 3D point clouds using a lightweight point diffusion model, which has a fast sampling speed. The second stage uses both the sampled point cloud and the input image to create highly detailed meshes. Our two-stage design enables probabilistic modeling of the ill-posed single-image 3D task while maintaining high computational efficiency and great output fidelity. Using point clouds as an intermediate representation further allows for interactive user edits. Evaluated on diverse datasets, SPAR3D demonstrates superior performance over previous state-of-the-art methods, at an inference speed of 0.7 seconds. Project page with code and model: https://spar3d.github.io

Object detection has long been dominated by traditional coordinate regression-based models, such as YOLO, DETR, and Grounding DINO. Although recent efforts have attempted to leverage MLLMs to tackle this task, they face challenges like low recall rate, duplicate predictions, coordinate misalignment, etc. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose Rex-Omni, a 3B-scale MLLM that achieves state-of-the-art object perception performance. On benchmarks like COCO and LVIS, Rex-Omni attains performance comparable to or exceeding regression-based models (e.g., DINO, Grounding DINO) in a zero-shot setting. This is enabled by three key designs: 1) Task Formulation: we use special tokens to represent quantized coordinates from 0 to 999, reducing the model's learning difficulty and improving token efficiency for coordinate prediction; 2) Data Engines: we construct multiple data engines to generate high-quality grounding, referring, and pointing data, providing semantically rich supervision for training; \3) Training Pipelines: we employ a two-stage training process, combining supervised fine-tuning on 22 million data with GRPO-based reinforcement post-training. This RL post-training leverages geometry-aware rewards to effectively bridge the discrete-to-continuous coordinate prediction gap, improve box accuracy, and mitigate undesirable behaviors like duplicate predictions that stem from the teacher-guided nature of the initial SFT stage. Beyond conventional detection, Rex-Omni's inherent language understanding enables versatile capabilities such as object referring, pointing, visual prompting, GUI grounding, spatial referring, OCR and key-pointing, all systematically evaluated on dedicated benchmarks. We believe that Rex-Omni paves the way for more versatile and language-aware visual perception systems.

While making investment decisions by reading financial documents, investors need to differentiate between in-claim and outof-claim numerals. In this paper, we present a tool which does it automatically. It extracts context embeddings of the numerals using one of the transformer based pre-trained language model called BERT. After this, it uses a Logistic Regression based model to detect whether the numerals is in-claim or out-of-claim. We use FinNum-3 (English) dataset to train our model. After conducting rigorous experiments we achieve a Macro F1 score of 0.8223 on the validation set. We have open-sourced this tool and it can be accessed from https://github.com/sohomghosh/FiNCAT_Financial_Numeral_Claim_Analysis_Tool

The robustness of legged locomotion is crucial for quadrupedal robots in challenging terrains. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown promising results in legged locomotion and various methods try to integrate privileged distillation, scene modeling, and external sensors to improve the generalization and robustness of locomotion policies. However, these methods are hard to handle uncertain scenarios such as abrupt terrain changes or unexpected external forces. In this paper, we consider a novel risk-sensitive perspective to enhance the robustness of legged locomotion. Specifically, we employ a distributional value function learned by quantile regression to model the aleatoric uncertainty of environments, and perform risk-averse policy learning by optimizing the worst-case scenarios via a risk distortion measure. Extensive experiments in both simulation environments and a real Aliengo robot demonstrate that our method is efficient in handling various external disturbances, and the resulting policy exhibits improved robustness in harsh and uncertain situations in legged locomotion. Videos are available at https://risk-averse-locomotion.github.io/.

Text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models have achieved strong performance in semantic alignment, yet they still struggle with generating the correct number of objects specified in prompts. Existing approaches typically incorporate auxiliary counting networks as external critics to enhance numeracy. However, since these critics must provide gradient guidance during generation, they are restricted to regression-based models that are inherently differentiable, thus excluding detector-based models with superior counting ability, whose count-via-enumeration nature is non-differentiable. To overcome this limitation, we propose Detector-to-Differentiable (D2D), a novel framework that transforms non-differentiable detection models into differentiable critics, thereby leveraging their superior counting ability to guide numeracy generation. Specifically, we design custom activation functions to convert detector logits into soft binary indicators, which are then used to optimize the noise prior at inference time with pre-trained T2I models. Our extensive experiments on SDXL-Turbo, SD-Turbo, and Pixart-DMD across four benchmarks of varying complexity (low-density, high-density, and multi-object scenarios) demonstrate consistent and substantial improvements in object counting accuracy (e.g., boosting up to 13.7% on D2D-Small, a 400-prompt, low-density benchmark), with minimal degradation in overall image quality and computational overhead.

Group equivariant neural networks are used as building blocks of group invariant neural networks, which have been shown to improve generalisation performance and data efficiency through principled parameter sharing. Such works have mostly focused on group equivariant convolutions, building on the result that group equivariant linear maps are necessarily convolutions. In this work, we extend the scope of the literature to self-attention, that is emerging as a prominent building block of deep learning models. We propose the LieTransformer, an architecture composed of LieSelfAttention layers that are equivariant to arbitrary Lie groups and their discrete subgroups. We demonstrate the generality of our approach by showing experimental results that are competitive to baseline methods on a wide range of tasks: shape counting on point clouds, molecular property regression and modelling particle trajectories under Hamiltonian dynamics.

Regression Mean (RegMean), an approach that formulates model merging as a linear regression problem, aims to find the optimal weights for each linear layer in the merge model by minimizing the discrepancy in predictions between the merge and candidate models. RegMean provides a precise closed-form solution for the merging problem; therefore, it offers explainability and computational efficiency. However, RegMean merges each linear layer independently, overlooking how the features and information in the earlier layers propagate through the layers and influence the final prediction in the merge model. In this paper, we introduce RegMean++, a simple yet effective alternative to RegMean, that explicitly incorporates both intra- and cross-layer dependencies between merge models' layers into RegMean's objective. By accounting for these dependencies, RegMean++ better captures the behaviors of the merge model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RegMean++ consistently outperforms RegMean across diverse settings, including in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, sequential merging, large-scale tasks, and robustness under several types of distribution shifts. Furthermore, RegMean++ achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance compared to various recent advanced model merging methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/nthehai01/RegMean-plusplus.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

We address the computational challenges of solving parametric PDEs with non parametrized geometric variations and non-reducible problems, such as those involving shocks and discontinuities of variable positions. Traditional dimensionality reduction methods like POD struggle with these scenarios due to slowly decaying Kolmogorov widths. To overcome this, we propose a novel non-linear dimensionality reduction technique to reduce the required modes for representation. The non-linear reduction is obtained through a POD after applying a transformation on the fields, which we call optimal mappings, and is a solution to an optimization problem in infinite dimension. The proposed learning framework combines morphing techniques, non-linear dimensionality reduction, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The problem is reformulated on a reference geometry before applying the dimensionality reduction. Our method learns both the optimal mapping, and the solution fields, using a series of GPR models, enabling efficient and accurate modeling of complex parametric PDEs with geometrical variability. The results obtained concur with current state-of-the-art models. We mainly compare our method with the winning solution of the ML4CFD NeurIPS 2024 competition.

In this paper, we present SCOREQ, a novel approach for speech quality prediction. SCOREQ is a triplet loss function for contrastive regression that addresses the domain generalisation shortcoming exhibited by state of the art no-reference speech quality metrics. In the paper we: (i) illustrate the problem of L2 loss training failing at capturing the continuous nature of the mean opinion score (MOS) labels; (ii) demonstrate the lack of generalisation through a benchmarking evaluation across several speech domains; (iii) outline our approach and explore the impact of the architectural design decisions through incremental evaluation; (iv) evaluate the final model against state of the art models for a wide variety of data and domains. The results show that the lack of generalisation observed in state of the art speech quality metrics is addressed by SCOREQ. We conclude that using a triplet loss function for contrastive regression improves generalisation for speech quality prediction models but also has potential utility across a wide range of applications using regression-based predictive models.

This paper introduces the Encog library for Java and C#, a scalable, adaptable, multiplatform machine learning framework that was 1st released in 2008. Encog allows a variety of machine learning models to be applied to datasets using regression, classification, and clustering. Various supported machine learning models can be used interchangeably with minimal recoding. Encog uses efficient multithreaded code to reduce training time by exploiting modern multicore processors. The current version of Encog can be downloaded from http://www.encog.org.

Neural audio codecs have been widely adopted in audio-generative tasks because their compact and discrete representations are suitable for both large-language-model-style and regression-based generative models. However, most neural codecs struggle to model out-of-domain audio, resulting in error propagations to downstream generative tasks. In this paper, we first argue that information loss from codec compression degrades out-of-domain robustness. Then, we propose full-band 48~kHz ComplexDec with complex spectral input and output to ease the information loss while adopting the same 24~kbps bitrate as the baseline AuidoDec and ScoreDec. Objective and subjective evaluations demonstrate the out-of-domain robustness of ComplexDec trained using only the 30-hour VCTK corpus.

Urban and transportation research has long sought to uncover statistically meaningful relationships between key variables and societal outcomes such as road safety, to generate actionable insights that guide the planning, development, and renewal of urban and transportation systems. However, traditional workflows face several key challenges: (1) reliance on human experts to propose hypotheses, which is time-consuming and prone to confirmation bias; (2) limited interpretability, particularly in deep learning approaches; and (3) underutilization of unstructured data that can encode critical urban context. Given these limitations, we propose a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM)-based approach for interpretable hypothesis inference, enabling the automated generation, evaluation, and refinement of hypotheses concerning urban context and road safety outcomes. Our method leverages MLLMs to craft safety-relevant questions for street view images (SVIs), extract interpretable embeddings from their responses, and apply them in regression-based statistical models. UrbanX supports iterative hypothesis testing and refinement, guided by statistical evidence such as coefficient significance, thereby enabling rigorous scientific discovery of previously overlooked correlations between urban design and safety. Experimental evaluations on Manhattan street segments demonstrate that our approach outperforms pretrained deep learning models while offering full interpretability. Beyond road safety, UrbanX can serve as a general-purpose framework for urban scientific discovery, extracting structured insights from unstructured urban data across diverse socioeconomic and environmental outcomes. This approach enhances model trustworthiness for policy applications and establishes a scalable, statistically grounded pathway for interpretable knowledge discovery in urban and transportation studies.

We introduce MarDini, a new family of video diffusion models that integrate the advantages of masked auto-regression (MAR) into a unified diffusion model (DM) framework. Here, MAR handles temporal planning, while DM focuses on spatial generation in an asymmetric network design: i) a MAR-based planning model containing most of the parameters generates planning signals for each masked frame using low-resolution input; ii) a lightweight generation model uses these signals to produce high-resolution frames via diffusion de-noising. MarDini's MAR enables video generation conditioned on any number of masked frames at any frame positions: a single model can handle video interpolation (e.g., masking middle frames), image-to-video generation (e.g., masking from the second frame onward), and video expansion (e.g., masking half the frames). The efficient design allocates most of the computational resources to the low-resolution planning model, making computationally expensive but important spatio-temporal attention feasible at scale. MarDini sets a new state-of-the-art for video interpolation; meanwhile, within few inference steps, it efficiently generates videos on par with those of much more expensive advanced image-to-video models.

Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Information Technology and Capital Goods for the period January 2009 till April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA index, NIFTY index and the US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate. We establish by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA index and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY index. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India reflects internal economic growth of India. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.

More than 2 billion mobile users worldwide type in multiple languages in the soft keyboard. On a monolingual keyboard, 38% of falsely auto-corrected words are valid in another language. This can be easily avoided by detecting the language of typed words and then validating it in its respective language. Language detection is a well-known problem in natural language processing. In this paper, we present a fast, light-weight and accurate Language Detection Engine (LDE) for multilingual typing that dynamically adapts to user intended language in real-time. We propose a novel approach where the fusion of character N-gram model and logistic regression based selector model is used to identify the language. Additionally, we present a unique method of reducing the inference time significantly by parameter reduction technique. We also discuss various optimizations fabricated across LDE to resolve ambiguity in input text among the languages with the same character pattern. Our method demonstrates an average accuracy of 94.5% for Indian languages in Latin script and that of 98% for European languages on the code-switched data. This model outperforms fastText by 60.39% and ML-Kit by 23.67% in F1 score for European languages. LDE is faster on mobile device with an average inference time of 25.91 microseconds.

Optimization and generalization are two essential aspects of statistical machine learning. In this paper, we propose a framework to connect optimization with generalization by analyzing the generalization error based on the optimization trajectory under the gradient flow algorithm. The key ingredient of this framework is the Uniform-LGI, a property that is generally satisfied when training machine learning models. Leveraging the Uniform-LGI, we first derive convergence rates for gradient flow algorithm, then we give generalization bounds for a large class of machine learning models. We further apply our framework to three distinct machine learning models: linear regression, kernel regression, and two-layer neural networks. Through our approach, we obtain generalization estimates that match or extend previous results.

Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data across the United States. In contrast to existing fire data sets based on Earth observation satellites, our data set combines 2D fire data with multiple explanatory variables (e.g., topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, population density) aligned over 2D regions, providing a feature-rich data set for machine learning. To demonstrate the usefulness of this data set, we implement a neural network that takes advantage of the spatial information of this data to predict wildfire spread. We compare the performance of the neural network with other machine learning models: logistic regression and random forest. This data set can be used as a benchmark for developing wildfire propagation models based on remote sensing data for a lead time of one day.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a key method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences through the use of reward models. However, traditional reward models typically generate point estimates, which oversimplify the diversity and complexity of human values and preferences. In this paper, we introduce Quantile Reward Models (QRMs), a novel approach to reward modeling that learns a distribution over rewards instead of a single scalar value. Our method uses quantile regression to estimate a full, potentially multimodal distribution over preferences, providing a more powerful and nuanced representation of preferences. This distributional approach can better capture the diversity of human values, addresses label noise, and accommodates conflicting preferences by modeling them as distinct modes in the distribution. Our experimental results show that QRM outperforms comparable traditional point-estimate models on RewardBench. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the additional information provided by the distributional estimates can be utilized in downstream applications, such as risk-aware reinforcement learning, resulting in LLM policies that generate fewer extremely negative responses. Our code and model are released at https://github.com/Nicolinho/QRM.

The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing attentions in the recent literature. In this paper, we present a relatively complete analysis of label permutation problem for the generalized linear model with multivariate responses. The theory is established under different scenarios, with knowledge of true parameters, with partial knowledge of underlying label permutation matrix and without any knowledge. Our results remove the stringent conditions required by the current literature and are further extended to the missing observation setting which has never been considered in the field of label permutation problem. On computational side, we propose two methods, "maximum likelihood estimation" algorithm and "two-step estimation" algorithm, to accommodate for different settings. When the proportion of permuted labels is moderate, both methods work effectively. Multiple numerical experiments are provided and corroborate our theoretical findings.

Symbolic regression is the task of identifying a mathematical expression that best fits a provided dataset of input and output values. Due to the richness of the space of mathematical expressions, symbolic regression is generally a challenging problem. While conventional approaches based on genetic evolution algorithms have been used for decades, deep learning-based methods are relatively new and an active research area. In this work, we present SymbolicGPT, a novel transformer-based language model for symbolic regression. This model exploits the advantages of probabilistic language models like GPT, including strength in performance and flexibility. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that our model performs strongly compared to competing models with respect to the accuracy, running time, and data efficiency.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Supervised learning for empathy regression is challenged by noisy self-reported empathy scores. While many algorithms have been proposed for learning with noisy labels in textual classification problems, the regression counterpart is relatively under-explored. We propose UPLME, an uncertainty-aware probabilistic language modelling framework to capture label noise in the regression setting of empathy detection. UPLME includes a probabilistic language model that predicts both empathy score and heteroscedastic uncertainty and is trained using Bayesian concepts with variational model ensembling. We further introduce two novel loss components: one penalises degenerate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and another enforces the similarity between the input pairs on which we predict empathy. UPLME provides state-of-the-art performance (Pearson Correlation Coefficient: 0.558rightarrow0.580 and 0.629rightarrow0.634) in terms of the performance reported in the literature in two public benchmarks, having label noise. Through synthetic label noise injection, we show that UPLME is effective in separating noisy and clean samples based on the predicted uncertainty. UPLME further outperform (Calibration error: 0.571rightarrow0.376) a recent variational model ensembling-based UQ method designed for regression problems.

State of the art Symbolic Regression (SR) methods currently build specialized models, while the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce the first comprehensive framework that utilizes LLMs for the task of SR. We propose In-Context Symbolic Regression (ICSR), an SR method which iteratively refines a functional form with an LLM and determines its coefficients with an external optimizer. ICSR leverages LLMs' strong mathematical prior both to propose an initial set of possible functions given the observations and to refine them based on their errors. Our findings reveal that LLMs are able to successfully find symbolic equations that fit the given data, matching or outperforming the overall performance of the best SR baselines on four popular benchmarks, while yielding simpler equations with better out of distribution generalization.

While language models have exceptional capabilities at text generation, they lack a natural inductive bias for emitting numbers and thus struggle in tasks involving reasoning over quantities, especially arithmetics. This has particular relevance in scientific datasets where combinations of text and numerical data are abundant. One fundamental limitation is the nature of the CE loss, which assumes a nominal (categorical) scale and thus cannot convey proximity between generated number tokens. As a remedy, we here present two versions of a number token loss. The first is based on an L_p loss between the ground truth token value and the weighted sum of the predicted class probabilities. The second loss minimizes the Wasserstein-1 distance between the distribution of the predicted output probabilities and the ground truth distribution. These regression-like losses can easily be added to any language model and extend the CE objective during training. We compare the proposed schemes on a mathematics dataset against existing tokenization, encoding, and decoding schemes for improving number representation in language models. Our results reveal a significant improvement in numerical accuracy when equipping a standard T5 model with the proposed loss schemes.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

In production, multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) are expected to support multi-turn queries of interchanging image and text modalities. However, the current MLLMs trained with visual-question-answering (VQA) datasets could suffer from degradation, as VQA datasets lack the diversity and complexity of the original text instruction datasets which the underlying language model had been trained with. To address this challenging degradation, we first collect a lightweight (6k entries) VQA preference dataset where answers were annotated by Gemini for 5 quality metrics in a granular fashion, and investigate standard Supervised Fine-tuning, rejection sampling, Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and SteerLM. Our findings indicate that the with DPO we are able to surpass instruction-following capabilities of the language model, achieving a 6.73 score on MT-Bench, compared to Vicuna's 6.57 and LLaVA's 5.99 despite small data scale. This enhancement in textual instruction proficiency correlates with boosted visual instruction performance (+4.9\% on MM-Vet, +6\% on LLaVA-Bench), with minimal alignment tax on visual knowledge benchmarks compared to previous RLHF approach. In conclusion, we propose a distillation-based multi-modal alignment model with fine-grained annotations on a small dataset that reconciles the textual and visual performance of MLLMs, restoring and boosting language capability after visual instruction tuning.

Chart question answering (CQA) is a task used for assessing chart comprehension, which is fundamentally different from understanding natural images. CQA requires analyzing the relationships between the textual and the visual components of a chart, in order to answer general questions or infer numerical values. Most existing CQA datasets and models are based on simplifying assumptions that often enable surpassing human performance. In this work, we address this outcome and propose a new model that jointly learns classification and regression. Our language-vision setup uses co-attention transformers to capture the complex real-world interactions between the question and the textual elements. We validate our design with extensive experiments on the realistic PlotQA dataset, outperforming previous approaches by a large margin, while showing competitive performance on FigureQA. Our model is particularly well suited for realistic questions with out-of-vocabulary answers that require regression.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Symbolic regression (SR) is an area of interpretable machine learning that aims to identify mathematical expressions, often composed of simple functions, that best fit in a given set of covariates X and response y. In recent years, deep symbolic regression (DSR) has emerged as a popular method in the field by leveraging deep reinforcement learning to solve the complicated combinatorial search problem. In this work, we propose an alternative framework (GFN-SR) to approach SR with deep learning. We model the construction of an expression tree as traversing through a directed acyclic graph (DAG) so that GFlowNet can learn a stochastic policy to generate such trees sequentially. Enhanced with an adaptive reward baseline, our method is capable of generating a diverse set of best-fitting expressions. Notably, we observe that GFN-SR outperforms other SR algorithms in noisy data regimes, owing to its ability to learn a distribution of rewards over a space of candidate solutions.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently updated due to data or architecture changes to improve their performance. When updating models, developers often focus on increasing overall performance metrics with less emphasis on being compatible with previous model versions. However, users often build a mental model of the functionality and capabilities of a particular machine learning model they are interacting with. They have to adapt their mental model with every update -- a draining task that can lead to user dissatisfaction. In practice, fine-tuned downstream task adapters rely on pretrained LLM base models. When these base models are updated, these user-facing downstream task models experience instance regression or negative flips -- previously correct instances are now predicted incorrectly. This happens even when the downstream task training procedures remain identical. Our work aims to provide seamless model updates to a user in two ways. First, we provide evaluation metrics for a notion of compatibility to prior model versions, specifically for generative tasks but also applicable for discriminative tasks. We observe regression and inconsistencies between different model versions on a diverse set of tasks and model updates. Second, we propose a training strategy to minimize the number of inconsistencies in model updates, involving training of a compatibility model that can enhance task fine-tuned language models. We reduce negative flips -- instances where a prior model version was correct, but a new model incorrect -- by up to 40% from Llama 1 to Llama 2.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

Reconstructing and understanding 3D structures from a limited number of images is a well-established problem in computer vision. Traditional methods usually break this task into multiple subtasks, each requiring complex transformations between different data representations. For instance, dense reconstruction through Structure-from-Motion (SfM) involves converting images into key points, optimizing camera parameters, and estimating structures. Afterward, accurate sparse reconstructions are required for further dense modeling, which is subsequently fed into task-specific neural networks. This multi-step process results in considerable processing time and increased engineering complexity. In this work, we present the Large Spatial Model (LSM), which processes unposed RGB images directly into semantic radiance fields. LSM simultaneously estimates geometry, appearance, and semantics in a single feed-forward operation, and it can generate versatile label maps by interacting with language at novel viewpoints. Leveraging a Transformer-based architecture, LSM integrates global geometry through pixel-aligned point maps. To enhance spatial attribute regression, we incorporate local context aggregation with multi-scale fusion, improving the accuracy of fine local details. To tackle the scarcity of labeled 3D semantic data and enable natural language-driven scene manipulation, we incorporate a pre-trained 2D language-based segmentation model into a 3D-consistent semantic feature field. An efficient decoder then parameterizes a set of semantic anisotropic Gaussians, facilitating supervised end-to-end learning. Extensive experiments across various tasks show that LSM unifies multiple 3D vision tasks directly from unposed images, achieving real-time semantic 3D reconstruction for the first time.

Large Language Models (LLMs) for code generation evolve rapidly through fine-tuning, merging, or new model releases. However, such updates can introduce regressions, not only in correctness but also in code quality and performance. To address this, we present ReCatcher, a regression testing framework for Python code generation. ReCatcher systematically compares two LLMs, typically a current model and a candidate update, across three dimensions: logical correctness, static code quality, and execution performance. We apply ReCatcher to assess regressions across three update scenarios, fine-tuning, merging, and model release, using CodeLlama, DeepSeek-Coder, and GPT-4o. Our evaluation shows that fine-tuning with cross-language datasets increases syntax errors by up to 12%. Merging with general-purpose models like Llama2 leads to regressions in correctness by up to 18%. GPT-4o introduces regressions of up to 50% in handling missing imports compared to GPT-3.5-turbo, while GPT-4o-mini suffers up to 80% performance degradation in execution time versus GPT-4o. Overall, logical correctness, performance, and error handling (e.g., syntax errors and missing imports) are the most regression-prone areas. Comparing ReCatcher with baseline solutions, it presents better and consistent accuracy across logical and performance aspects. ReCatcher highlights the importance of systematic regression evaluation before adopting new models, while assisting researchers and practitioners in making more informed update decisions.

Object pose estimation, which plays a vital role in robotics, augmented reality, and autonomous driving, has been of great interest in computer vision. Existing studies either require multi-stage pose regression or rely on 2D-3D feature matching. Though these approaches have shown promising results, they rely heavily on appearance information, requiring complex input (i.e., multi-view reference input, depth, or CAD models) and intricate pipeline (i.e., feature extraction-SfM-2D to 3D matching-PnP). We propose AxisPose, a model-free, matching-free, single-shot solution for robust 6D pose estimation, which fundamentally diverges from the existing paradigm. Unlike existing methods that rely on 2D-3D or 2D-2D matching using 3D techniques, such as SfM and PnP, AxisPose directly infers a robust 6D pose from a single view by leveraging a diffusion model to learn the latent axis distribution of objects without reference views. Specifically, AxisPose constructs an Axis Generation Module (AGM) to capture the latent geometric distribution of object axes through a diffusion model. The diffusion process is guided by injecting the gradient of geometric consistency loss into the noise estimation to maintain the geometric consistency of the generated tri-axis. With the generated tri-axis projection, AxisPose further adopts a Triaxial Back-projection Module (TBM) to recover the 6D pose from the object tri-axis. The proposed AxisPose achieves robust performance at the cross-instance level (i.e., one model for N instances) using only a single view as input without reference images, with great potential for generalization to unseen-object level.

We propose a method to distill a complex multistep diffusion model into a single-step conditional GAN student model, dramatically accelerating inference, while preserving image quality. Our approach interprets diffusion distillation as a paired image-to-image translation task, using noise-to-image pairs of the diffusion model's ODE trajectory. For efficient regression loss computation, we propose E-LatentLPIPS, a perceptual loss operating directly in diffusion model's latent space, utilizing an ensemble of augmentations. Furthermore, we adapt a diffusion model to construct a multi-scale discriminator with a text alignment loss to build an effective conditional GAN-based formulation. E-LatentLPIPS converges more efficiently than many existing distillation methods, even accounting for dataset construction costs. We demonstrate that our one-step generator outperforms cutting-edge one-step diffusion distillation models -- DMD, SDXL-Turbo, and SDXL-Lightning -- on the zero-shot COCO benchmark.

Survival analysis can sometimes involve individuals who will not experience the event of interest, forming what is known as the cured group. Identifying such individuals is not always possible beforehand, as they provide only right-censored data. Ignoring the presence of the cured group can introduce bias in the final model. This paper presents a method for estimating a semiparametric additive hazards model that accounts for the cured fraction. Unlike regression coefficients in a hazard ratio model, those in an additive hazard model measure hazard differences. The proposed method uses a primal-dual interior point algorithm to obtain constrained maximum penalized likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard, subject to certain non-negativity constraints.

In nature, the behaviors of many complex systems can be described by parsimonious math equations. Automatically distilling these equations from limited data is cast as a symbolic regression process which hitherto remains a grand challenge. Keen efforts in recent years have been placed on tackling this issue and demonstrated success in symbolic regression. However, there still exist bottlenecks that current methods struggle to break when the discrete search space tends toward infinity and especially when the underlying math formula is intricate. To this end, we propose a novel Reinforcement Symbolic Regression Machine (RSRM) that masters the capability of uncovering complex math equations from only scarce data. The RSRM model is composed of three key modules: (1) a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) agent that explores optimal math expression trees consisting of pre-defined math operators and variables, (2) a Double Q-learning block that helps reduce the feasible search space of MCTS via properly understanding the distribution of reward, and (3) a modulated sub-tree discovery block that heuristically learns and defines new math operators to improve representation ability of math expression trees. Biding of these modules yields the state-of-the-art performance of RSRM in symbolic regression as demonstrated by multiple sets of benchmark examples. The RSRM model shows clear superiority over several representative baseline models.

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown tremendous promise in automated software engineering. In this paper, we investigate the opportunities of LLMs for automatic regression test generation for programs that take highly structured, human-readable inputs, such as XML parsers or JavaScript interpreters. Concretely, we explore the following regression test generation scenarios for such programs that have so far been difficult to test automatically in the absence of corresponding input grammars: bullet Bug finding. Given a code change (e.g., a commit or pull request), our LLM-based approach generates a test case with the objective of revealing any bugs that might be introduced if that change is applied. bullet Patch testing. Given a patch, our LLM-based approach generates a test case that fails before but passes after the patch. This test can be added to the regression test suite to catch similar bugs in the future. We implement Cleverest, a feedback-directed, zero-shot LLM-based regression test generation technique, and evaluate its effectiveness on 22 commits to three subject programs: Mujs, Libxml2, and Poppler. For programs using more human-readable file formats, like XML or JavaScript, we found Cleverest performed very well. It generated easy-to-understand bug-revealing or bug-reproduction test cases for the majority of commits in just under three minutes -- even when only the code diff or commit message (unless it was too vague) was given. For programs with more compact file formats, like PDF, as expected, it struggled to generate effective test cases. However, the LLM-supplied test cases are not very far from becoming effective (e.g., when used as a seed by a greybox fuzzer or as a starting point by the developer).

Embedding models are crucial for tasks in Information Retrieval (IR) and semantic similarity measurement, yet their handling of longer texts and associated positional biases remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the impact of content position and input size on text embeddings. Our experiments reveal that embedding models, irrespective of their positional encoding mechanisms, disproportionately prioritize the beginning of an input. Ablation studies demonstrate that insertion of irrelevant text or removal at the start of a document reduces cosine similarity between altered and original embeddings by up to 12.3% more than ablations at the end. Regression analysis further confirms this bias, with sentence importance declining as position moves further from the start, even with with content-agnosticity. We hypothesize that this effect arises from pre-processing strategies and chosen positional encoding techniques. These findings quantify the sensitivity of retrieval systems and suggest a new lens towards embedding model robustness.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

We analyze how well pre-trained large language models (e.g., Llama2, GPT-4, Claude 3, etc) can do linear and non-linear regression when given in-context examples, without any additional training or gradient updates. Our findings reveal that several large language models (e.g., GPT-4, Claude 3) are able to perform regression tasks with a performance rivaling (or even outperforming) that of traditional supervised methods such as Random Forest, Bagging, or Gradient Boosting. For example, on the challenging Friedman #2 regression dataset, Claude 3 outperforms many supervised methods such as AdaBoost, SVM, Random Forest, KNN, or Gradient Boosting. We then investigate how well the performance of large language models scales with the number of in-context exemplars. We borrow from the notion of regret from online learning and empirically show that LLMs are capable of obtaining a sub-linear regret.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) has witnessed great progress with various improvements in the self-training framework with pseudo labeling. The main challenge is how to distinguish high-quality pseudo labels against the confirmation bias. However, existing pseudo-label selection strategies are limited to pre-defined schemes or complex hand-crafted policies specially designed for classification, failing to achieve high-quality labels, fast convergence, and task versatility simultaneously. To these ends, we propose a Semi-supervised Reward framework (SemiReward) that predicts reward scores to evaluate and filter out high-quality pseudo labels, which is pluggable to mainstream SSL methods in wide task types and scenarios. To mitigate confirmation bias, SemiReward is trained online in two stages with a generator model and subsampling strategy. With classification and regression tasks on 13 standard SSL benchmarks across three modalities, extensive experiments verify that SemiReward achieves significant performance gains and faster convergence speeds upon Pseudo Label, FlexMatch, and Free/SoftMatch. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Westlake-AI/SemiReward.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

Negative binomial regression is essential for analyzing over-dispersed count data in in comparative studies, but parameter estimation becomes computationally challenging in large screens requiring millions of comparisons. We investigate using a pre-trained transformer to produce estimates of negative binomial regression parameters from observed count data, trained through synthetic data generation to learn to invert the process of generating counts from parameters. The transformer method achieved better parameter accuracy than maximum likelihood optimization while being 20 times faster. However, comparisons unexpectedly revealed that method of moment estimates performed as well as maximum likelihood optimization in accuracy, while being 1,000 times faster and producing better-calibrated and more powerful tests, making it the most efficient solution for this application.

Human motion modeling traditionally separates motion generation and estimation into distinct tasks with specialized models. Motion generation models focus on creating diverse, realistic motions from inputs like text, audio, or keyframes, while motion estimation models aim to reconstruct accurate motion trajectories from observations like videos. Despite sharing underlying representations of temporal dynamics and kinematics, this separation limits knowledge transfer between tasks and requires maintaining separate models. We present GENMO, a unified Generalist Model for Human Motion that bridges motion estimation and generation in a single framework. Our key insight is to reformulate motion estimation as constrained motion generation, where the output motion must precisely satisfy observed conditioning signals. Leveraging the synergy between regression and diffusion, GENMO achieves accurate global motion estimation while enabling diverse motion generation. We also introduce an estimation-guided training objective that exploits in-the-wild videos with 2D annotations and text descriptions to enhance generative diversity. Furthermore, our novel architecture handles variable-length motions and mixed multimodal conditions (text, audio, video) at different time intervals, offering flexible control. This unified approach creates synergistic benefits: generative priors improve estimated motions under challenging conditions like occlusions, while diverse video data enhances generation capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate GENMO's effectiveness as a generalist framework that successfully handles multiple human motion tasks within a single model.

Accurate retinal vessel (RV) segmentation is a crucial step in the quantitative assessment of retinal vasculature, which is needed for the early detection of retinal diseases and other conditions. Numerous studies have been conducted to tackle the problem of segmenting vessels automatically using a pixel-wise classification approach. The common practice of creating ground truth labels is to categorize pixels as foreground and background. This approach is, however, biased, and it ignores the uncertainty of a human annotator when it comes to annotating e.g. thin vessels. In this work, we propose a simple and effective method that casts the RV segmentation task as an image-level regression. For this purpose, we first introduce a novel Segmentation Annotation Uncertainty-Aware (SAUNA) transform, which adds pixel uncertainty to the ground truth using the pixel's closeness to the annotation boundary and vessel thickness. To train our model with soft labels, we generalize the earlier proposed Jaccard metric loss to arbitrary hypercubes for soft Jaccard index (Intersection-over-Union) optimization. Additionally, we employ a stable version of the Focal-L1 loss for pixel-wise regression. We conduct thorough experiments and compare our method to a diverse set of baselines across 5 retinal image datasets. Our empirical results indicate that the integration of the SAUNA transform and these segmentation losses led to significant performance boosts for different segmentation models. Particularly, our methodology enables UNet-like architectures to substantially outperform computational-intensive baselines. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/SAUNA.

The extended kernel ridge regression (EKRR) method with odd-even effects was adopted to improve the description of the nuclear charge radius using five commonly used nuclear models. These are: (i) the isospin dependent A^{1/3} formula, (ii) relativistic continuum Hartree-Bogoliubov (RCHB) theory, (iii) Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) model HFB25, (iv) the Weizs\"acker-Skyrme (WS) model WS^ast, and (v) HFB25^ast model. In the last two models, the charge radii were calculated using a five-parameter formula with the nuclear shell corrections and deformations obtained from the WS and HFB25 models, respectively. For each model, the resultant root-mean-square deviation for the 1014 nuclei with proton number Z geq 8 can be significantly reduced to 0.009-0.013~fm after considering the modification with the EKRR method. The best among them was the RCHB model, with a root-mean-square deviation of 0.0092~fm. The extrapolation abilities of the KRR and EKRR methods for the neutron-rich region were examined and it was found that after considering the odd-even effects, the extrapolation power was improved compared with that of the original KRR method. The strong odd-even staggering of nuclear charge radii of Ca and Cu isotopes and the abrupt kinks across the neutron N=126 and 82 shell closures were also calculated and could be reproduced quite well by calculations using the EKRR method.

Optimization is ubiquitous. While derivative-based algorithms have been powerful tools for various problems, the absence of gradient imposes challenges on many real-world applications. In this work, we propose Optimization by PROmpting (OPRO), a simple and effective approach to leverage large language models (LLMs) as optimizers, where the optimization task is described in natural language. In each optimization step, the LLM generates new solutions from the prompt that contains previously generated solutions with their values, then the new solutions are evaluated and added to the prompt for the next optimization step. We first showcase OPRO on linear regression and traveling salesman problems, then move on to prompt optimization where the goal is to find instructions that maximize the task accuracy. With a variety of LLMs, we demonstrate that the best prompts optimized by OPRO outperform human-designed prompts by up to 8% on GSM8K, and by up to 50% on Big-Bench Hard tasks.

In this work, we introduce Boolformer, the first Transformer architecture trained to perform end-to-end symbolic regression of Boolean functions. First, we show that it can predict compact formulas for complex functions which were not seen during training, when provided a clean truth table. Then, we demonstrate its ability to find approximate expressions when provided incomplete and noisy observations. We evaluate the Boolformer on a broad set of real-world binary classification datasets, demonstrating its potential as an interpretable alternative to classic machine learning methods. Finally, we apply it to the widespread task of modelling the dynamics of gene regulatory networks. Using a recent benchmark, we show that Boolformer is competitive with state-of-the art genetic algorithms with a speedup of several orders of magnitude. Our code and models are available publicly.

We introduce D-FINE, a powerful real-time object detector that achieves outstanding localization precision by redefining the bounding box regression task in DETR models. D-FINE comprises two key components: Fine-grained Distribution Refinement (FDR) and Global Optimal Localization Self-Distillation (GO-LSD). FDR transforms the regression process from predicting fixed coordinates to iteratively refining probability distributions, providing a fine-grained intermediate representation that significantly enhances localization accuracy. GO-LSD is a bidirectional optimization strategy that transfers localization knowledge from refined distributions to shallower layers through self-distillation, while also simplifying the residual prediction tasks for deeper layers. Additionally, D-FINE incorporates lightweight optimizations in computationally intensive modules and operations, achieving a better balance between speed and accuracy. Specifically, D-FINE-L / X achieves 54.0% / 55.8% AP on the COCO dataset at 124 / 78 FPS on an NVIDIA T4 GPU. When pretrained on Objects365, D-FINE-L / X attains 57.1% / 59.3% AP, surpassing all existing real-time detectors. Furthermore, our method significantly enhances the performance of a wide range of DETR models by up to 5.3% AP with negligible extra parameters and training costs. Our code and pretrained models: https://github.com/Peterande/D-FINE.

Scene regression methods, such as VGGT, solve the Structure-from-Motion (SfM) problem by directly regressing camera poses and 3D scene structures from input images. They demonstrate impressive performance in handling images under extreme viewpoint changes. However, these methods struggle to handle a large number of input images. To address this problem, we introduce SAIL-Recon, a feed-forward Transformer for large scale SfM, by augmenting the scene regression network with visual localization capabilities. Specifically, our method first computes a neural scene representation from a subset of anchor images. The regression network is then fine-tuned to reconstruct all input images conditioned on this neural scene representation. Comprehensive experiments show that our method not only scales efficiently to large-scale scenes, but also achieves state-of-the-art results on both camera pose estimation and novel view synthesis benchmarks, including TUM-RGBD, CO3Dv2, and Tanks & Temples. We will publish our model and code. Code and models are publicly available at: https://hkust-sail.github.io/ sail-recon/.

A key challenge in MT evaluation is the inherent noise and inconsistency of human ratings. Regression-based neural metrics struggle with this noise, while prompting LLMs shows promise at system-level evaluation but performs poorly at segment level. In this work, we propose ReMedy, a novel MT metric framework that reformulates translation evaluation as a reward modeling task. Instead of regressing on imperfect human ratings directly, ReMedy learns relative translation quality using pairwise preference data, resulting in a more reliable evaluation. In extensive experiments across WMT22-24 shared tasks (39 language pairs, 111 MT systems), ReMedy achieves state-of-the-art performance at both segment- and system-level evaluation. Specifically, ReMedy-9B surpasses larger WMT winners and massive closed LLMs such as MetricX-13B, XCOMET-Ensemble, GEMBA-GPT-4, PaLM-540B, and finetuned PaLM2. Further analyses demonstrate that ReMedy delivers superior capability in detecting translation errors and evaluating low-quality translations.

We study how multi-head softmax attention models are trained to perform in-context learning on linear data. Through extensive empirical experiments and rigorous theoretical analysis, we demystify the emergence of elegant attention patterns: a diagonal and homogeneous pattern in the key-query (KQ) weights, and a last-entry-only and zero-sum pattern in the output-value (OV) weights. Remarkably, these patterns consistently appear from gradient-based training starting from random initialization. Our analysis reveals that such emergent structures enable multi-head attention to approximately implement a debiased gradient descent predictor -- one that outperforms single-head attention and nearly achieves Bayesian optimality up to proportional factor. Furthermore, compared to linear transformers, the softmax attention readily generalizes to sequences longer than those seen during training. We also extend our study to scenarios with non-isotropic covariates and multi-task linear regression. In the former, multi-head attention learns to implement a form of pre-conditioned gradient descent. In the latter, we uncover an intriguing regime where the interplay between head number and task number triggers a superposition phenomenon that efficiently resolves multi-task in-context learning. Our results reveal that in-context learning ability emerges from the trained transformer as an aggregated effect of its architecture and the underlying data distribution, paving the way for deeper understanding and broader applications of in-context learning.

This research paper investigates the effectiveness of simple linear models versus complex machine learning techniques in breast cancer diagnosis, emphasizing the importance of interpretability and computational efficiency in the medical domain. We focus on Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DT), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) and optimize their performance using the UCI Machine Learning Repository dataset. Our findings demonstrate that the simpler linear model, LR, outperforms the more complex DT and SVM techniques, with a test score mean of 97.28%, a standard deviation of 1.62%, and a computation time of 35.56 ms. In comparison, DT achieved a test score mean of 93.73%, and SVM had a test score mean of 96.44%. The superior performance of LR can be attributed to its simplicity and interpretability, which provide a clear understanding of the relationship between input features and the outcome. This is particularly valuable in the medical domain, where interpretability is crucial for decision-making. Moreover, the computational efficiency of LR offers advantages in terms of scalability and real-world applicability. The results of this study highlight the power of simplicity in the context of breast cancer diagnosis and suggest that simpler linear models like LR can be more effective, interpretable, and computationally efficient than their complex counterparts, making them a more suitable choice for medical applications.

Camera-centric understanding and generation are two cornerstones of spatial intelligence, yet they are typically studied in isolation. We present Puffin, a unified camera-centric multimodal model that extends spatial awareness along the camera dimension. Puffin integrates language regression and diffusion-based generation to interpret and create scenes from arbitrary viewpoints. To bridge the modality gap between cameras and vision-language, we introduce a novel paradigm that treats camera as language, enabling thinking with camera. This guides the model to align spatially grounded visual cues with photographic terminology while reasoning across geometric context. Puffin is trained on Puffin-4M, a large-scale dataset of 4 million vision-language-camera triplets. We incorporate both global camera parameters and pixel-wise camera maps, yielding flexible and reliable spatial generation. Experiments demonstrate Puffin superior performance over specialized models for camera-centric generation and understanding. With instruction tuning, Puffin generalizes to diverse cross-view tasks such as spatial imagination, world exploration, and photography guidance. We will release the code, models, dataset pipeline, and benchmark to advance multimodal spatial intelligence research.

This study investigates the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for predicting human-perceived misery scores from natural language descriptions of real-world scenarios. The task is framed as a regression problem, where the model assigns a scalar value from 0 to 100 to each input statement. We evaluate multiple prompting strategies, including zero-shot, fixed-context few-shot, and retrieval-based prompting using BERT sentence embeddings. Few-shot approaches consistently outperform zero-shot baselines, underscoring the value of contextual examples in affective prediction. To move beyond static evaluation, we introduce the "Misery Game Show", a novel gamified framework inspired by a television format. It tests LLMs through structured rounds involving ordinal comparison, binary classification, scalar estimation, and feedback-driven reasoning. This setup enables us to assess not only predictive accuracy but also the model's ability to adapt based on corrective feedback. The gamified evaluation highlights the broader potential of LLMs in dynamic emotional reasoning tasks beyond standard regression. Code and data link: https://github.com/abhi1nandy2/Misery_Data_Exps_GitHub

This paper presents the Large Wireless Model (LWM) -- the world's first foundation model for wireless channels. Designed as a task-agnostic model, LWM generates universal, rich, contextualized channel embeddings (features) that potentially enhance performance across a wide range of downstream tasks in wireless communication and sensing systems. Towards this objective, LWM, which has a transformer-based architecture, was pre-trained in a self-supervised manner on large-scale wireless channel datasets. Our results show consistent improvements in classification and regression tasks when using the LWM embeddings compared to raw channel representations, especially in scenarios with high-complexity machine learning tasks and limited training datasets. This LWM's ability to learn from large-scale wireless data opens a promising direction for intelligent systems that can efficiently adapt to diverse tasks with limited data, paving the way for addressing key challenges in wireless communication and sensing systems.

Although deep neural networks have achieved reasonable accuracy in solving face alignment, it is still a challenging task, specifically when we deal with facial images, under occlusion, or extreme head poses. Heatmap-based Regression (HBR) and Coordinate-based Regression (CBR) are among the two mainly used methods for face alignment. CBR methods require less computer memory, though their performance is less than HBR methods. In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Coordinate-based Regression (ACR) loss to improve the accuracy of CBR for face alignment. Inspired by the Active Shape Model (ASM), we generate Smooth-Face objects, a set of facial landmark points with less variations compared to the ground truth landmark points. We then introduce a method to estimate the level of difficulty in predicting each landmark point for the network by comparing the distribution of the ground truth landmark points and the corresponding Smooth-Face objects. Our proposed ACR Loss can adaptively modify its curvature and the influence of the loss based on the difficulty level of predicting each landmark point in a face. Accordingly, the ACR Loss guides the network toward challenging points than easier points, which improves the accuracy of the face alignment task. Our extensive evaluation shows the capabilities of the proposed ACR Loss in predicting facial landmark points in various facial images.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models have transformed image generation with their impressive fidelity and diversity. We show that they also excel in estimating optical flow and monocular depth, surprisingly, without task-specific architectures and loss functions that are predominant for these tasks. Compared to the point estimates of conventional regression-based methods, diffusion models also enable Monte Carlo inference, e.g., capturing uncertainty and ambiguity in flow and depth. With self-supervised pre-training, the combined use of synthetic and real data for supervised training, and technical innovations (infilling and step-unrolled denoising diffusion training) to handle noisy-incomplete training data, and a simple form of coarse-to-fine refinement, one can train state-of-the-art diffusion models for depth and optical flow estimation. Extensive experiments focus on quantitative performance against benchmarks, ablations, and the model's ability to capture uncertainty and multimodality, and impute missing values. Our model, DDVM (Denoising Diffusion Vision Model), obtains a state-of-the-art relative depth error of 0.074 on the indoor NYU benchmark and an Fl-all outlier rate of 3.26\% on the KITTI optical flow benchmark, about 25\% better than the best published method. For an overview see https://diffusion-vision.github.io.

AI researchers and practitioners increasingly apply large language models (LLMs) to what we call reasoning-intensive regression (RiR), i.e. deducing subtle numerical properties from text. Unlike standard language regression tasks, e.g. for sentiment or similarity, RiR often appears instead in ad-hoc problems like rubric-based scoring or domain-specific retrieval, where much deeper analysis of text is required while only limited task-specific training data and computation are available. We cast three realistic problems as RiR tasks to establish an initial benchmark, and use that to test our hypothesis that prompting frozen LLMs and finetuning Transformer encoders via gradient descent will both often struggle in RiR. We then propose MENTAT, a simple and lightweight method that combines batch-reflective prompt optimization with neural ensemble learning. MENTAT achieves up to 65% improvement over both baselines, though substantial room remains for future advances in RiR.

With the rise of large language models (LLMs) for flexibly processing information as strings, a natural application is regression, specifically by preprocessing string representations into LLM embeddings as downstream features for metric prediction. In this paper, we provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into embedding-based regression and demonstrate that LLM embeddings as features can be better for high-dimensional regression tasks than using traditional feature engineering. This regression performance can be explained in part due to LLM embeddings over numeric data inherently preserving Lipschitz continuity over the feature space. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of different model effects, most notably model size and language understanding, which we find surprisingly do not always improve regression performance.

Large language models (LLMs) are known for their exceptional performance in natural language processing, making them highly effective in many human life-related or even job-related tasks. The attention mechanism in the Transformer architecture is a critical component of LLMs, as it allows the model to selectively focus on specific input parts. The softmax unit, which is a key part of the attention mechanism, normalizes the attention scores. Hence, the performance of LLMs in various NLP tasks depends significantly on the crucial role played by the attention mechanism with the softmax unit. In-context learning, as one of the celebrated abilities of recent LLMs, is an important concept in querying LLMs such as ChatGPT. Without further parameter updates, Transformers can learn to predict based on few in-context examples. However, the reason why Transformers becomes in-context learners is not well understood. Recently, several works [ASA+22,GTLV22,ONR+22] have studied the in-context learning from a mathematical perspective based on a linear regression formulation min_x| Ax - b |_2, which show Transformers' capability of learning linear functions in context. In this work, we study the in-context learning based on a softmax regression formulation min_{x} | langle exp(Ax), {bf 1}_n rangle^{-1} exp(Ax) - b |_2 of Transformer's attention mechanism. We show the upper bounds of the data transformations induced by a single self-attention layer and by gradient-descent on a ell_2 regression loss for softmax prediction function, which imply that when training self-attention-only Transformers for fundamental regression tasks, the models learned by gradient-descent and Transformers show great similarity.

Functional data play a pivotal role across science and engineering, yet their infinite-dimensional nature makes representation learning challenging. Conventional statistical models depend on pre-chosen basis expansions or kernels, limiting the flexibility of data-driven discovery, while many deep-learning pipelines treat functions as fixed-grid vectors, ignoring inherent continuity. In this paper, we introduce Functional Attention with a Mixture-of-Experts (FAME), an end-to-end, fully data-driven framework for function-on-function regression. FAME forms continuous attention by coupling a bidirectional neural controlled differential equation with MoE-driven vector fields to capture intra-functional continuity, and further fuses change to inter-functional dependencies via multi-head cross attention. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world functional-regression benchmarks show that FAME achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, strong robustness to arbitrarily sampled discrete observations of functions.

In-context learning (ICL), the remarkable ability to solve a task from only input exemplars, is often assumed to be a unique hallmark of Transformer models. By examining commonly employed synthetic ICL tasks, we demonstrate that multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) can also learn in-context. Moreover, MLPs, and the closely related MLP-Mixer models, learn in-context competitively with Transformers given the same compute budget in this setting. We further show that MLPs outperform Transformers on a series of classical tasks from psychology designed to test relational reasoning, which are closely related to in-context classification. These results underscore a need for studying in-context learning beyond attention-based architectures, while also challenging strong prior arguments about MLPs' limited ability to solve relational tasks. Altogether, our results highlight the unexpected competence of MLPs, and support the growing interest in all-MLP alternatives to task-specific architectures.

Large Language Models (LLMs) stand at the forefront of a number of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Despite the widespread adoption of LLMs in NLP, much of their potential in broader fields remains largely unexplored, and significant limitations persist in their design and implementation. Notably, LLMs struggle with structured data, such as graphs, and often falter when tasked with answering domain-specific questions requiring deep expertise, such as those in biology and chemistry. In this paper, we explore a fundamental question: Can LLMs effectively handle molecule prediction tasks? Rather than pursuing top-tier performance, our goal is to assess how LLMs can contribute to diverse molecule tasks. We identify several classification and regression prediction tasks across six standard molecule datasets. Subsequently, we carefully design a set of prompts to query LLMs on these tasks and compare their performance with existing Machine Learning (ML) models, which include text-based models and those specifically designed for analysing the geometric structure of molecules. Our investigation reveals several key insights: Firstly, LLMs generally lag behind ML models in achieving competitive performance on molecule tasks, particularly when compared to models adept at capturing the geometric structure of molecules, highlighting the constrained ability of LLMs to comprehend graph data. Secondly, LLMs show promise in enhancing the performance of ML models when used collaboratively. Lastly, we engage in a discourse regarding the challenges and promising avenues to harness LLMs for molecule prediction tasks. The code and models are available at https://github.com/zhiqiangzhongddu/LLMaMol.

Imbalanced distributions are ubiquitous in real-world data. They create constraints on Deep Neural Networks to represent the minority labels and avoid bias towards majority labels. The extensive body of imbalanced approaches address categorical label spaces but fail to effectively extend to regression problems where the label space is continuous. Local and global correlations among continuous labels provide valuable insights towards effectively modelling relationships in feature space. In this work, we propose ConR, a contrastive regularizer that models global and local label similarities in feature space and prevents the features of minority samples from being collapsed into their majority neighbours. ConR discerns the disagreements between the label space and feature space and imposes a penalty on these disagreements. ConR addresses the continuous nature of label space with two main strategies in a contrastive manner: incorrect proximities are penalized proportionate to the label similarities and the correct ones are encouraged to model local similarities. ConR consolidates essential considerations into a generic, easy-to-integrate, and efficient method that effectively addresses deep imbalanced regression. Moreover, ConR is orthogonal to existing approaches and smoothly extends to uni- and multi-dimensional label spaces. Our comprehensive experiments show that ConR significantly boosts the performance of all the state-of-the-art methods on four large-scale deep imbalanced regression benchmarks. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/ConR.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) are an attractive generative modeling technique, but they have been held back by limitations in their simulation-based maximum likelihood training. We introduce the generalized conditional flow matching (CFM) technique, a family of simulation-free training objectives for CNFs. CFM features a stable regression objective like that used to train the stochastic flow in diffusion models but enjoys the efficient inference of deterministic flow models. In contrast to both diffusion models and prior CNF training algorithms, CFM does not require the source distribution to be Gaussian or require evaluation of its density. A variant of our objective is optimal transport CFM (OT-CFM), which creates simpler flows that are more stable to train and lead to faster inference, as evaluated in our experiments. Furthermore, we show that when the true OT plan is available, our OT-CFM method approximates dynamic OT. Training CNFs with CFM improves results on a variety of conditional and unconditional generation tasks, such as inferring single cell dynamics, unsupervised image translation, and Schr\"odinger bridge inference.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

Flow-based generative models have shown remarkable success in text-to-image generation, yet fine-tuning them with intermediate feedback remains challenging, especially for continuous-time flow matching models. Most existing approaches solely learn from outcome rewards, struggling with the credit assignment problem. Alternative methods that attempt to learn a critic via direct regression on cumulative rewards often face training instabilities and model collapse in online settings. We present AC-Flow, a robust actor-critic framework that addresses these challenges through three key innovations: (1) reward shaping that provides well-normalized learning signals to enable stable intermediate value learning and gradient control, (2) a novel dual-stability mechanism that combines advantage clipping to prevent destructive policy updates with a warm-up phase that allows the critic to mature before influencing the actor, and (3) a scalable generalized critic weighting scheme that extends traditional reward-weighted methods while preserving model diversity through Wasserstein regularization. Through extensive experiments on Stable Diffusion 3, we demonstrate that AC-Flow achieves state-of-the-art performance in text-to-image alignment tasks and generalization to unseen human preference models. Our results demonstrate that even with a computationally efficient critic model, we can robustly finetune flow models without compromising generative quality, diversity, or stability.

The task of locating first order saddle points on high-dimensional surfaces describing the variation of energy as a function of atomic coordinates is an essential step for identifying the mechanism and estimating the rate of thermally activated events within the harmonic approximation of transition state theory. When combined directly with electronic structure calculations, the number of energy and atomic force evaluations needed for convergence is a primary issue. Here, we describe an efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) acceleration of the minimum mode following method where a dimer is used to estimate the lowest eigenmode of the Hessian. A surrogate energy surface is constructed and updated after each electronic structure calculation. The method is applied to a test set of 500 molecular reactions previously generated by Hermez and coworkers [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 18, 6974 (2022)]. An order of magnitude reduction in the number of electronic structure calculations needed to reach the saddle point configurations is obtained by using the GPR compared to the dimer method. Despite the wide range in stiffness of the molecular degrees of freedom, the calculations are carried out using Cartesian coordinates and are found to require similar number of electronic structure calculations as an elaborate internal coordinate method implemented in the Sella software package. The present implementation of the GPR surrogate model in C++ is efficient enough for the wall time of the saddle point searches to be reduced in 3 out of 4 cases even though the calculations are carried out at a low Hartree-Fock level.

Spectrograms are pivotal in time-frequency signal analysis, widely used in audio processing and computational neuroscience. Chirp-like patterns in electroencephalogram (EEG) spectrograms (marked by linear or exponential frequency sweep) are key biomarkers for seizure dynamics, but automated tools for their detection, localization, and feature extraction are lacking. This study bridges this gap by fine-tuning a Vision Transformer (ViT) model on synthetic spectrograms, augmented with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to boost adaptability. We generated 100000 synthetic spectrograms with chirp parameters, creating the first large-scale benchmark for chirp localization. These spectrograms mimic neural chirps using linear or exponential frequency sweep, Gaussian noise, and smoothing. A ViT model, adapted for regression, predicted chirp parameters. LoRA fine-tuned the attention layers, enabling efficient updates to the pre-trained backbone. Training used MSE loss and the AdamW optimizer, with a learning rate scheduler and early stopping to curb overfitting. Only three features were targeted: Chirp Start Time (Onset Time), Chirp Start Frequency (Onset Frequency), and Chirp End Frequency (Offset Frequency). Performance was evaluated via Pearson correlation between predicted and actual labels. Results showed strong alignment: 0.9841 correlation for chirp start time, with stable inference times (137 to 140s) and minimal bias in error distributions. This approach offers a tool for chirp analysis in EEG time-frequency representation, filling a critical methodological void.

We introduce ODEFormer, the first transformer able to infer multidimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems in symbolic form from the observation of a single solution trajectory. We perform extensive evaluations on two datasets: (i) the existing "Strogatz" dataset featuring two-dimensional systems; (ii) ODEBench, a collection of one- to four-dimensional systems that we carefully curated from the literature to provide a more holistic benchmark. ODEFormer consistently outperforms existing methods while displaying substantially improved robustness to noisy and irregularly sampled observations, as well as faster inference. We release our code, model and benchmark dataset publicly.

Recent advancements in NLP have witnessed the groundbreaking impact of pretrained models, yielding impressive outcomes across various tasks. This study seeks to extend the power of pretraining methodologies to facilitating the prediction over tables in data science, a domain traditionally overlooked, yet inherently challenging due to the plethora of table schemas intrinsic to different tasks. The primary research questions underpinning this work revolve around the establishment of a universal pretraining protocol for tables with varied structures, the generalizability and transferability of learned knowledge across tasks, the adaptation to diverse downstream applications, and the incorporation of incremental columns over time. In response to these challenges, we introduce UniTabE, a straightforward yet effective method designed to process tables in a uniform manner, devoid of constraints imposed by specific table structures. UniTabE's core concept relies on representing each basic table element with a module, termed TabUnit. This is subsequently followed by a Transformer encoder to refine the representation. Moreover, our model is designed to facilitate pretraining and finetuning through the utilization of free-form prompts. In order to implement the pretraining phase, we curated an expansive tabular dataset comprising approximately 13B samples, meticulously gathered from the Kaggle platform. This research primarily centers on classification and regression tasks involving tabular data, and conducts rigorous experimental testing and analyses to validate the effectiveness of our methodology. The experimental results demonstrate UniTabE's superior performance against several baselines across massive benchmarks. This, therefore, underscores UniTabE's potential to significantly enhance the semantic representation of tabular data, thereby marking a significant stride for tabular data analysis.

Data augmentation is critical to the empirical success of modern self-supervised representation learning, such as contrastive learning and masked language modeling. However, a theoretical understanding of the exact role of augmentation remains limited. Recent work has built the connection between self-supervised learning and the approximation of the top eigenspace of a graph Laplacian operator, suggesting that learning a linear probe atop such representation can be connected to RKHS regression. Building on this insight, this work delves into a statistical analysis of augmentation-based pretraining. Starting from the isometry property, a geometric characterization of the target function given by the augmentation, we disentangle the effects of the model and the augmentation, and prove two generalization bounds that are free of model complexity. Our first bound works for an arbitrary encoder, where the prediction error is decomposed as the sum of an estimation error incurred by fitting a linear probe with RKHS regression, and an approximation error entailed by RKHS approximation. Our second bound specifically addresses the case where the encoder is near-optimal, that is it approximates the top-d eigenspace of the RKHS induced by the augmentation. A key ingredient in our analysis is the augmentation complexity, which we use to quantitatively compare different augmentations and analyze their impact on downstream performance.

In symbolic regression, the goal is to find an analytical expression that accurately fits experimental data with the minimal use of mathematical symbols such as operators, variables, and constants. However, the combinatorial space of possible expressions can make it challenging for traditional evolutionary algorithms to find the correct expression in a reasonable amount of time. To address this issue, Neural Symbolic Regression (NSR) algorithms have been developed that can quickly identify patterns in the data and generate analytical expressions. However, these methods, in their current form, lack the capability to incorporate user-defined prior knowledge, which is often required in natural sciences and engineering fields. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel neural symbolic regression method, named Neural Symbolic Regression with Hypothesis (NSRwH) that enables the explicit incorporation of assumptions about the expected structure of the ground-truth expression into the prediction process. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed conditioned deep learning model outperforms its unconditioned counterparts in terms of accuracy while also providing control over the predicted expression structure.

Absolute Pose Regression (APR) methods use deep neural networks to directly regress camera poses from RGB images. However, the predominant APR architectures only rely on 2D operations during inference, resulting in limited accuracy of pose estimation due to the lack of 3D geometry constraints or priors. In this work, we propose a test-time refinement pipeline that leverages implicit geometric constraints using a robust feature field to enhance the ability of APR methods to use 3D information during inference. We also introduce a novel Neural Feature Synthesizer (NeFeS) model, which encodes 3D geometric features during training and directly renders dense novel view features at test time to refine APR methods. To enhance the robustness of our model, we introduce a feature fusion module and a progressive training strategy. Our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art single-image APR accuracy on indoor and outdoor datasets.

In deep learning, often the training process finds an interpolator (a solution with 0 training loss), but the test loss is still low. This phenomenon, known as benign overfitting, is a major mystery that received a lot of recent attention. One common mechanism for benign overfitting is implicit regularization, where the training process leads to additional properties for the interpolator, often characterized by minimizing certain norms. However, even for a simple sparse linear regression problem y = beta^{*top} x +xi with sparse beta^*, neither minimum ell_1 or ell_2 norm interpolator gives the optimal test loss. In this work, we give a different parametrization of the model which leads to a new implicit regularization effect that combines the benefit of ell_1 and ell_2 interpolators. We show that training our new model via gradient descent leads to an interpolator with near-optimal test loss. Our result is based on careful analysis of the training dynamics and provides another example of implicit regularization effect that goes beyond norm minimization.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

Regression-based methods have recently shown promising results in reconstructing human meshes from monocular images. By directly mapping raw pixels to model parameters, these methods can produce parametric models in a feed-forward manner via neural networks. However, minor deviation in parameters may lead to noticeable misalignment between the estimated meshes and image evidences. To address this issue, we propose a Pyramidal Mesh Alignment Feedback (PyMAF) loop to leverage a feature pyramid and rectify the predicted parameters explicitly based on the mesh-image alignment status in our deep regressor. In PyMAF, given the currently predicted parameters, mesh-aligned evidences will be extracted from finer-resolution features accordingly and fed back for parameter rectification. To reduce noise and enhance the reliability of these evidences, an auxiliary pixel-wise supervision is imposed on the feature encoder, which provides mesh-image correspondence guidance for our network to preserve the most related information in spatial features. The efficacy of our approach is validated on several benchmarks, including Human3.6M, 3DPW, LSP, and COCO, where experimental results show that our approach consistently improves the mesh-image alignment of the reconstruction. The project page with code and video results can be found at https://hongwenzhang.github.io/pymaf.

Model-based human pose estimation is currently approached through two different paradigms. Optimization-based methods fit a parametric body model to 2D observations in an iterative manner, leading to accurate image-model alignments, but are often slow and sensitive to the initialization. In contrast, regression-based methods, that use a deep network to directly estimate the model parameters from pixels, tend to provide reasonable, but not pixel accurate, results while requiring huge amounts of supervision. In this work, instead of investigating which approach is better, our key insight is that the two paradigms can form a strong collaboration. A reasonable, directly regressed estimate from the network can initialize the iterative optimization making the fitting faster and more accurate. Similarly, a pixel accurate fit from iterative optimization can act as strong supervision for the network. This is the core of our proposed approach SPIN (SMPL oPtimization IN the loop). The deep network initializes an iterative optimization routine that fits the body model to 2D joints within the training loop, and the fitted estimate is subsequently used to supervise the network. Our approach is self-improving by nature, since better network estimates can lead the optimization to better solutions, while more accurate optimization fits provide better supervision for the network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in different settings, where 3D ground truth is scarce, or not available, and we consistently outperform the state-of-the-art model-based pose estimation approaches by significant margins. The project website with videos, results, and code can be found at https://seas.upenn.edu/~nkolot/projects/spin.

This paper studies post-training large language models (LLMs) using preference feedback from a powerful oracle to help a model iteratively improve over itself. The typical approach for post-training LLMs involves Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), which traditionally separates reward learning and subsequent policy optimization. However, such a reward maximization approach is limited by the nature of "point-wise" rewards (such as Bradley-Terry model), which fails to express complex intransitive or cyclic preference relations. While advances on RLHF show reward learning and policy optimization can be merged into a single contrastive objective for stability, they yet still remain tethered to the reward maximization framework. Recently, a new wave of research sidesteps the reward maximization presumptions in favor of directly optimizing over "pair-wise" or general preferences. In this paper, we introduce Direct Nash Optimization (DNO), a provable and scalable algorithm that marries the simplicity and stability of contrastive learning with theoretical generality from optimizing general preferences. Because DNO is a batched on-policy algorithm using a regression-based objective, its implementation is straightforward and efficient. Moreover, DNO enjoys monotonic improvement across iterations that help it improve even over a strong teacher (such as GPT-4). In our experiments, a resulting 7B parameter Orca-2.5 model aligned by DNO achieves the state-of-the-art win-rate against GPT-4-Turbo of 33% on AlpacaEval 2.0 (even after controlling for response length), an absolute gain of 26% (7% to 33%) over the initializing model. It outperforms models with far more parameters, including Mistral Large, Self-Rewarding LM (70B parameters), and older versions of GPT-4.

LLMs have revolutionized the field of artificial intelligence and have emerged as the de-facto tool for many tasks. The current established technology of LLMs is to process input and generate output at the token level. This is in sharp contrast to humans who operate at multiple levels of abstraction, well beyond single words, to analyze information and to generate creative content. In this paper, we present an attempt at an architecture which operates on an explicit higher-level semantic representation, which we name a concept. Concepts are language- and modality-agnostic and represent a higher level idea or action in a flow. Hence, we build a "Large Concept Model". In this study, as proof of feasibility, we assume that a concept corresponds to a sentence, and use an existing sentence embedding space, SONAR, which supports up to 200 languages in both text and speech modalities. The Large Concept Model is trained to perform autoregressive sentence prediction in an embedding space. We explore multiple approaches, namely MSE regression, variants of diffusion-based generation, and models operating in a quantized SONAR space. These explorations are performed using 1.6B parameter models and training data in the order of 1.3T tokens. We then scale one architecture to a model size of 7B parameters and training data of about 2.7T tokens. We perform an experimental evaluation on several generative tasks, namely summarization and a new task of summary expansion. Finally, we show that our model exhibits impressive zero-shot generalization performance to many languages, outperforming existing LLMs of the same size. The training code of our models is freely available.

We introduce EELBERT, an approach for compression of transformer-based models (e.g., BERT), with minimal impact on the accuracy of downstream tasks. This is achieved by replacing the input embedding layer of the model with dynamic, i.e. on-the-fly, embedding computations. Since the input embedding layer accounts for a significant fraction of the model size, especially for the smaller BERT variants, replacing this layer with an embedding computation function helps us reduce the model size significantly. Empirical evaluation on the GLUE benchmark shows that our BERT variants (EELBERT) suffer minimal regression compared to the traditional BERT models. Through this approach, we are able to develop our smallest model UNO-EELBERT, which achieves a GLUE score within 4% of fully trained BERT-tiny, while being 15x smaller (1.2 MB) in size.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly incorporate multilingual capabilities, fueling the demand to transfer them into target language-specific models. However, most approaches, which blend the source model's embedding by replacing the source vocabulary with the target language-specific vocabulary, may constrain expressive capacity in the target language since the source model is predominantly trained on English data. In this paper, we propose Semantic Aware Linear Transfer (SALT), a novel cross-lingual transfer technique that recycles embeddings from target language Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) to transmit the deep representational strengths of PLM-derived embedding to LLMs. SALT derives unique regression lines based on the similarity in the overlap of the source and target vocabularies, to handle each non-overlapping token's embedding space. Our extensive experiments show that SALT significantly outperforms other transfer methods and achieves lower loss with accelerating faster convergence during language adaptation. Notably, SALT obtains remarkable performance in cross-lingual understanding setups compared to other methods. Furthermore, we highlight the scalable use of PLMs to enhance the functionality of contemporary LLMs by conducting experiments with varying architectures.

Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) is a severe disease characterized by an elevated pulmonary artery pressure. The gold standard for PH diagnosis is measurement of mean Pulmonary Artery Pressure (mPAP) during an invasive Right Heart Catheterization. In this paper, we investigate noninvasive approach to PH detection utilizing Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computer Models and Machine Learning. We show using the ablation study, that physics-informed feature engineering based on models of blood circulation increases the performance of Gradient Boosting Decision Trees-based algorithms for classification of PH and regression of values of mPAP. We compare results of regression (with thresholding of estimated mPAP) and classification and demonstrate that metrics achieved in both experiments are comparable. The predicted mPAP values are more informative to the physicians than the probability of PH returned by classification models. They provide the intuitive explanation of the outcome of the machine learning model (clinicians are accustomed to the mPAP metric, contrary to the PH probability).

Gaussian splatting typically requires dense observations of the scene and can fail to reconstruct occluded and unobserved areas. We propose a latent diffusion model to reconstruct a complete 3D scene with Gaussian splats, including the occluded parts, from only a single image during inference. Completing the unobserved surfaces of a scene is challenging due to the ambiguity of the plausible surfaces. Conventional methods use a regression-based formulation to predict a single "mode" for occluded and out-of-frustum surfaces, leading to blurriness, implausibility, and failure to capture multiple possible explanations. Thus, they often address this problem partially, focusing either on objects isolated from the background, reconstructing only visible surfaces, or failing to extrapolate far from the input views. In contrast, we propose a generative formulation to learn a distribution of 3D representations of Gaussian splats conditioned on a single input image. To address the lack of ground-truth training data, we propose a Variational AutoReconstructor to learn a latent space only from 2D images in a self-supervised manner, over which a diffusion model is trained. Our method generates faithful reconstructions and diverse samples with the ability to complete the occluded surfaces for high-quality 360-degree renderings.

Cross-modal embeddings form the foundation for multi-modal models. However, visualization methods for interpreting cross-modal embeddings have been primarily confined to traditional dimensionality reduction (DR) techniques like PCA and t-SNE. These DR methods primarily focus on feature distributions within a single modality, whilst failing to incorporate metrics (e.g., CLIPScore) across multiple modalities. This paper introduces AKRMap, a new DR technique designed to visualize cross-modal embeddings metric with enhanced accuracy by learning kernel regression of the metric landscape in the projection space. Specifically, AKRMap constructs a supervised projection network guided by a post-projection kernel regression loss, and employs adaptive generalized kernels that can be jointly optimized with the projection. This approach enables AKRMap to efficiently generate visualizations that capture complex metric distributions, while also supporting interactive features such as zoom and overlay for deeper exploration. Quantitative experiments demonstrate that AKRMap outperforms existing DR methods in generating more accurate and trustworthy visualizations. We further showcase the effectiveness of AKRMap in visualizing and comparing cross-modal embeddings for text-to-image models. Code and demo are available at https://github.com/yilinye/AKRMap.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

With the rapid advancement of Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs), MLLM-based Image Quality Assessment (IQA) methods have shown promising performance in linguistic quality description. However, current methods still fall short in accurately scoring image quality. In this work, we aim to leverage MLLMs to regress accurate quality scores. A key challenge is that the quality score is inherently continuous, typically modeled as a Gaussian distribution, whereas MLLMs generate discrete token outputs. This mismatch necessitates score discretization. Previous approaches discretize the mean score into a one-hot label, resulting in information loss and failing to capture inter-image relationships. We propose a distribution-based approach that discretizes the score distribution into a soft label. This method preserves the characteristics of the score distribution, achieving high accuracy and maintaining inter-image relationships. Moreover, to address dataset variation, where different IQA datasets exhibit various distributions, we introduce a fidelity loss based on Thurstone's model. This loss captures intra-dataset relationships, facilitating co-training across multiple IQA datasets. With these designs, we develop the distribution-based Depicted image Quality Assessment model for Score regression (DeQA-Score). Experiments across multiple benchmarks show that DeQA-Score stably outperforms baselines in score regression. Also, DeQA-Score can predict the score distribution that closely aligns with human annotations. Codes and model weights have been released in https://depictqa.github.io/deqa-score/.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

When learning simulations for modeling physical phenomena in industrial designs, geometrical variabilities are of prime interest. While classical regression techniques prove effective for parameterized geometries, practical scenarios often involve the absence of shape parametrization during the inference stage, leaving us with only mesh discretizations as available data. Learning simulations from such mesh-based representations poses significant challenges, with recent advances relying heavily on deep graph neural networks to overcome the limitations of conventional machine learning approaches. Despite their promising results, graph neural networks exhibit certain drawbacks, including their dependency on extensive datasets and limitations in providing built-in predictive uncertainties or handling large meshes. In this work, we propose a machine learning method that do not rely on graph neural networks. Complex geometrical shapes and variations with fixed topology are dealt with using well-known mesh morphing onto a common support, combined with classical dimensionality reduction techniques and Gaussian processes. The proposed methodology can easily deal with large meshes without the need for explicit shape parameterization and provides crucial predictive uncertainties, which are essential for informed decision-making. In the considered numerical experiments, the proposed method is competitive with respect to existing graph neural networks, regarding training efficiency and accuracy of the predictions.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

Symbolic regression (SR) is the problem of learning a symbolic expression from numerical data. Recently, deep neural models trained on procedurally-generated synthetic datasets showed competitive performance compared to more classical Genetic Programming (GP) algorithms. Unlike their GP counterparts, these neural approaches are trained to generate expressions from datasets given as context. This allows them to produce accurate expressions in a single forward pass at test time. However, they usually do not benefit from search abilities, which result in low performance compared to GP on out-of-distribution datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel method which provides the best of both worlds, based on a Monte-Carlo Tree Search procedure using a context-aware neural mutation model, which is initially pre-trained to learn promising mutations, and further refined from successful experiences in an online fashion. The approach demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on the well-known SRBench benchmark.

Even though 3D face reconstruction has achieved impressive progress, most orthogonal projection-based face reconstruction methods can not achieve accurate and consistent reconstruction results when the face is very close to the camera due to the distortion under the perspective projection. In this paper, we propose to simultaneously reconstruct 3D face mesh in the world space and predict 2D face landmarks on the image plane to address the problem of perspective 3D face reconstruction. Based on the predicted 3D vertices and 2D landmarks, the 6DoF (6 Degrees of Freedom) face pose can be easily estimated by the PnP solver to represent perspective projection. Our approach achieves 1st place on the leader-board of the ECCV 2022 WCPA challenge and our model is visually robust under different identities, expressions and poses. The training code and models are released to facilitate future research.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Bounding box regression is the crucial step in object detection. In existing methods, while ell_n-norm loss is widely adopted for bounding box regression, it is not tailored to the evaluation metric, i.e., Intersection over Union (IoU). Recently, IoU loss and generalized IoU (GIoU) loss have been proposed to benefit the IoU metric, but still suffer from the problems of slow convergence and inaccurate regression. In this paper, we propose a Distance-IoU (DIoU) loss by incorporating the normalized distance between the predicted box and the target box, which converges much faster in training than IoU and GIoU losses. Furthermore, this paper summarizes three geometric factors in bounding box regression, \ie, overlap area, central point distance and aspect ratio, based on which a Complete IoU (CIoU) loss is proposed, thereby leading to faster convergence and better performance. By incorporating DIoU and CIoU losses into state-of-the-art object detection algorithms, e.g., YOLO v3, SSD and Faster RCNN, we achieve notable performance gains in terms of not only IoU metric but also GIoU metric. Moreover, DIoU can be easily adopted into non-maximum suppression (NMS) to act as the criterion, further boosting performance improvement. The source code and trained models are available at https://github.com/Zzh-tju/DIoU.

Transition videos play a crucial role in media production, enhancing the flow and coherence of visual narratives. Traditional methods like morphing often lack artistic appeal and require specialized skills, limiting their effectiveness. Recent advances in diffusion model-based video generation offer new possibilities for creating transitions but face challenges such as poor inter-frame relationship modeling and abrupt content changes. We propose a novel training-free Transition Video Generation (TVG) approach using video-level diffusion models that addresses these limitations without additional training. Our method leverages Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to model latent representations, ensuring smooth and dynamic transitions between frames. Additionally, we introduce interpolation-based conditional controls and a Frequency-aware Bidirectional Fusion (FBiF) architecture to enhance temporal control and transition reliability. Evaluations of benchmark datasets and custom image pairs demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generating high-quality smooth transition videos. The code are provided in https://sobeymil.github.io/tvg.com.

Advances in deep learning have significantly enhanced medical image analysis, yet the availability of large-scale medical datasets remains constrained by patient privacy concerns. We present EchoFlow, a novel framework designed to generate high-quality, privacy-preserving synthetic echocardiogram images and videos. EchoFlow comprises four key components: an adversarial variational autoencoder for defining an efficient latent representation of cardiac ultrasound images, a latent image flow matching model for generating accurate latent echocardiogram images, a latent re-identification model to ensure privacy by filtering images anatomically, and a latent video flow matching model for animating latent images into realistic echocardiogram videos conditioned on ejection fraction. We rigorously evaluate our synthetic datasets on the clinically relevant task of ejection fraction regression and demonstrate, for the first time, that downstream models trained exclusively on EchoFlow-generated synthetic datasets achieve performance parity with models trained on real datasets. We release our models and synthetic datasets, enabling broader, privacy-compliant research in medical ultrasound imaging at https://huggingface.co/spaces/HReynaud/EchoFlow.

The challenges faced by neural networks on tabular data are well-documented and have hampered the progress of tabular foundation models. Techniques leveraging in-context learning (ICL) have shown promise here, allowing for dynamic adaptation to unseen data. ICL can provide predictions for entirely new datasets without further training or hyperparameter tuning, therefore providing very fast inference when encountering a novel task. However, scaling ICL for tabular data remains an issue: approaches based on large language models cannot efficiently process numeric tables, and tabular-specific techniques have not been able to effectively harness the power of real data to improve performance and generalization. We are able to overcome these challenges by training tabular-specific ICL-based architectures on real data with self-supervised learning and retrieval, combining the best of both worlds. Our resulting model -- the Tabular Discriminative Pre-trained Transformer (TabDPT) -- achieves state-of-the-art performance on the CC18 (classification) and CTR23 (regression) benchmarks with no task-specific fine-tuning, demonstrating the adapatability and speed of ICL once the model is pre-trained. TabDPT also demonstrates strong scaling as both model size and amount of available data increase, pointing towards future improvements simply through the curation of larger tabular pre-training datasets and training larger models.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

We introduce the Glauber Generative Model (GGM), a new class of discrete diffusion models, to obtain new samples from a distribution given samples from a discrete space. GGM deploys a discrete Markov chain called the heat bath dynamics (or the Glauber dynamics) to denoise a sequence of noisy tokens to a sample from a joint distribution of discrete tokens. Our novel conceptual framework provides an exact reduction of the task of learning the denoising Markov chain to solving a class of binary classification tasks. More specifically, the model learns to classify a given token in a noisy sequence as signal or noise. In contrast, prior works on discrete diffusion models either solve regression problems to learn importance ratios, or minimize loss functions given by variational approximations. We apply GGM to language modeling and image generation, where images are discretized using image tokenizers like VQGANs. We show that it outperforms existing discrete diffusion models in language generation, and demonstrates strong performance for image generation without using dataset-specific image tokenizers. We also show that our model is capable of performing well in zero-shot control settings like text and image infilling.

Earth observation (EO) applications involving complex and heterogeneous data sources are commonly approached with machine learning models. However, there is a common assumption that data sources will be persistently available. Different situations could affect the availability of EO sources, like noise, clouds, or satellite mission failures. In this work, we assess the impact of missing temporal and static EO sources in trained models across four datasets with classification and regression tasks. We compare the predictive quality of different methods and find that some are naturally more robust to missing data. The Ensemble strategy, in particular, achieves a prediction robustness up to 100%. We evidence that missing scenarios are significantly more challenging in regression than classification tasks. Finally, we find that the optical view is the most critical view when it is missing individually.

Transformers pretrained on diverse tasks exhibit remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, enabling them to solve unseen tasks solely based on input contexts without adjusting model parameters. In this paper, we study ICL in one of its simplest setups: pretraining a linearly parameterized single-layer linear attention model for linear regression with a Gaussian prior. We establish a statistical task complexity bound for the attention model pretraining, showing that effective pretraining only requires a small number of independent tasks. Furthermore, we prove that the pretrained model closely matches the Bayes optimal algorithm, i.e., optimally tuned ridge regression, by achieving nearly Bayes optimal risk on unseen tasks under a fixed context length. These theoretical findings complement prior experimental research and shed light on the statistical foundations of ICL.

As Learning-to-Rank (LTR) approaches primarily seek to improve ranking quality, their output scores are not scale-calibrated by design. This fundamentally limits LTR usage in score-sensitive applications. Though a simple multi-objective approach that combines a regression and a ranking objective can effectively learn scale-calibrated scores, we argue that the two objectives are not necessarily compatible, which makes the trade-off less ideal for either of them. In this paper, we propose a practical regression compatible ranking (RCR) approach that achieves a better trade-off, where the two ranking and regression components are proved to be mutually aligned. Although the same idea applies to ranking with both binary and graded relevance, we mainly focus on binary labels in this paper. We evaluate the proposed approach on several public LTR benchmarks and show that it consistently achieves either best or competitive result in terms of both regression and ranking metrics, and significantly improves the Pareto frontiers in the context of multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, we evaluated the proposed approach on YouTube Search and found that it not only improved the ranking quality of the production pCTR model, but also brought gains to the click prediction accuracy. The proposed approach has been successfully deployed in the YouTube production system.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

Given an image with multiple people, our goal is to directly regress the pose and shape of all the people as well as their relative depth. Inferring the depth of a person in an image, however, is fundamentally ambiguous without knowing their height. This is particularly problematic when the scene contains people of very different sizes, e.g. from infants to adults. To solve this, we need several things. First, we develop a novel method to infer the poses and depth of multiple people in a single image. While previous work that estimates multiple people does so by reasoning in the image plane, our method, called BEV, adds an additional imaginary Bird's-Eye-View representation to explicitly reason about depth. BEV reasons simultaneously about body centers in the image and in depth and, by combing these, estimates 3D body position. Unlike prior work, BEV is a single-shot method that is end-to-end differentiable. Second, height varies with age, making it impossible to resolve depth without also estimating the age of people in the image. To do so, we exploit a 3D body model space that lets BEV infer shapes from infants to adults. Third, to train BEV, we need a new dataset. Specifically, we create a "Relative Human" (RH) dataset that includes age labels and relative depth relationships between the people in the images. Extensive experiments on RH and AGORA demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and training scheme. BEV outperforms existing methods on depth reasoning, child shape estimation, and robustness to occlusion. The code and dataset are released for research purposes.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Symbolic equations are at the core of scientific discovery. The task of discovering the underlying equation from a set of input-output pairs is called symbolic regression. Traditionally, symbolic regression methods use hand-designed strategies that do not improve with experience. In this paper, we introduce the first symbolic regression method that leverages large scale pre-training. We procedurally generate an unbounded set of equations, and simultaneously pre-train a Transformer to predict the symbolic equation from a corresponding set of input-output-pairs. At test time, we query the model on a new set of points and use its output to guide the search for the equation. We show empirically that this approach can re-discover a set of well-known physical equations, and that it improves over time with more data and compute.

Auto-regressive models have achieved impressive results in 2D image generation by modeling joint distributions in grid space. In this paper, we extend auto-regressive models to 3D domains, and seek a stronger ability of 3D shape generation by improving auto-regressive models at capacity and scalability simultaneously. Firstly, we leverage an ensemble of publicly available 3D datasets to facilitate the training of large-scale models. It consists of a comprehensive collection of approximately 900,000 objects, with multiple properties of meshes, points, voxels, rendered images, and text captions. This diverse labeled dataset, termed Objaverse-Mix, empowers our model to learn from a wide range of object variations. However, directly applying 3D auto-regression encounters critical challenges of high computational demands on volumetric grids and ambiguous auto-regressive order along grid dimensions, resulting in inferior quality of 3D shapes. To this end, we then present a novel framework Argus3D in terms of capacity. Concretely, our approach introduces discrete representation learning based on a latent vector instead of volumetric grids, which not only reduces computational costs but also preserves essential geometric details by learning the joint distributions in a more tractable order. The capacity of conditional generation can thus be realized by simply concatenating various conditioning inputs to the latent vector, such as point clouds, categories, images, and texts. In addition, thanks to the simplicity of our model architecture, we naturally scale up our approach to a larger model with an impressive 3.6 billion parameters, further enhancing the quality of versatile 3D generation. Extensive experiments on four generation tasks demonstrate that Argus3D can synthesize diverse and faithful shapes across multiple categories, achieving remarkable performance.

This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) utilize numerical attributes encoded in a low-dimensional subspace of the embedding space when answering logical comparison questions (e.g., Was Cristiano born before Messi?). We first identified these subspaces using partial least squares regression, which effectively encodes the numerical attributes associated with the entities in comparison prompts. Further, we demonstrate causality by intervening in these subspaces to manipulate hidden states, thereby altering the LLM's comparison outcomes. Experimental results show that our findings hold for different numerical attributes, indicating that LLMs utilize the linearly encoded information for numerical reasoning.

Instruction fine-tuning (IFT) elicits instruction following capabilities and steers the behavior of large language models (LLMs) via supervised learning. However, existing models trained on open-source IFT datasets only have the ability to follow instructions from users, and often fail to follow complex role and rules specified by developers, a.k.a. system prompts. The ability to follow these roles and rules is essential for deployment, as it ensures that the model safely interacts with users within developer defined guidelines. To improve such role and rule following ability, we propose \model, an automated data generation pipeline that generates diverse roles and rules from existing IFT instructions, along with corresponding responses. This data can then be used to train models that follow complex system prompts. The models are evaluated on our newly created benchmarks for role and rule following ability, as well as standard instruction-following benchmarks and general NLP tasks. Our framework significantly improves role and rule following capability in LLMs, as evidenced by over 25% increase in pass-rate on rule adherence, i.e. following all requirements, in our experiments with the Alpaca and Ultrachat datasets. Moreover, our models achieves this increase without any regression on popular instruction following benchmarks.

Learning from human preferences is crucial for language models (LMs) to effectively cater to human needs and societal values. Previous research has made notable progress by leveraging human feedback to follow instructions. However, these approaches rely primarily on online reinforcement learning (RL) techniques like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), which have been proven unstable and challenging to tune for language models. Moreover, PPO requires complex distributed system implementation, hindering the efficiency of large-scale distributed training. In this study, we propose an offline reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) framework to align LMs using pre-generated samples without interacting with RL environments. Specifically, we explore maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with filtering, reward-weighted regression (RWR), and Decision Transformer (DT) to align language models to human preferences. By employing a loss function similar to supervised fine-tuning, our methods ensure more stable model training than PPO with a simple machine learning system~(MLSys) and much fewer (around 12.3\%) computing resources. Experimental results demonstrate the DT alignment outperforms other Offline RLHF methods and is better than PPO.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

In this paper, we adapt triplet neural networks (TNNs) to a regression task, music emotion prediction. Since TNNs were initially introduced for classification, and not for regression, we propose a mechanism that allows them to provide meaningful low dimensional representations for regression tasks. We then use these new representations as the input for regression algorithms such as support vector machines and gradient boosting machines. To demonstrate the TNNs' effectiveness at creating meaningful representations, we compare them to different dimensionality reduction methods on music emotion prediction, i.e., predicting valence and arousal values from musical audio signals. Our results on the DEAM dataset show that by using TNNs we achieve 90% feature dimensionality reduction with a 9% improvement in valence prediction and 4% improvement in arousal prediction with respect to our baseline models (without TNN). Our TNN method outperforms other dimensionality reduction methods such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE). This shows that, in addition to providing a compact latent space representation of audio features, the proposed approach has a higher performance than the baseline models.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

The aim of this article is to introduce a new methodology for constructing morphings between shapes that have identical topology. This morphing is obtained by deforming a reference shape, through the resolution of a sequence of linear elasticity equations, onto the target shape. In particular, our approach does not assume any knowledge of a boundary parametrization. Furthermore, we demonstrate how constraints can be imposed on specific points, lines and surfaces in the reference domain to ensure alignment with their counterparts in the target domain after morphing. Additionally, we show how the proposed methodology can be integrated in an offline and online paradigm, which is useful in reduced-order modeling scenarii involving variable shapes. This framework facilitates the efficient computation of the morphings in various geometric configurations, thus improving the versatility and applicability of the approach. The methodology is illustrated on the regression problem of the drag and lift coefficients of airfoils of non-parameterized variable shapes.

In the field of autonomous driving, even a meticulously trained model can encounter failures when faced with unfamiliar sceanrios. One of these scenarios can be formulated as an online continual learning (OCL) problem. That is, data come in an online fashion, and models are updated according to these streaming data. Two major OCL challenges are catastrophic forgetting and data imbalance. To address these challenges, in this paper, we propose an Analytic Exemplar-Free Online Continual Learning (AEF-OCL). The AEF-OCL leverages analytic continual learning principles and employs ridge regression as a classifier for features extracted by a large backbone network. It solves the OCL problem by recursively calculating the analytical solution, ensuring an equalization between the continual learning and its joint-learning counterpart, and works without the need to save any used samples (i.e., exemplar-free). Additionally, we introduce a Pseudo-Features Generator (PFG) module that recursively estimates the deviation of real features. The PFG generates offset pseudo-features following a normal distribution, thereby addressing the data imbalance issue. Experimental results demonstrate that despite being an exemplar-free strategy, our method outperforms various methods on the autonomous driving SODA10M dataset. Source code is available at https://github.com/ZHUANGHP/Analytic-continual-learning.

Our knowledge of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and their relation to their host galaxies is still limited, and there are only around 150 SMBHs that have their masses directly measured and confirmed. Better black hole mass scaling relations will help us reveal the physics of black holes, as well as predict black hole masses that are not yet measured. Here, we apply symbolic regression, combined with random forest to those directly-measured black hole masses and host galaxy properties, and find a collection of higher-dimensional (N-D) black hole mass scaling relations. These N-D black hole mass scaling relations have scatter smaller than any of the existing black hole mass scaling relations. One of the best among them involves the parameters of central stellar velocity dispersion, bulge-to-total ratio, and density at the black hole's sphere-of-influence with an intrinsic scatter of epsilon=0.083, dex, significantly lower than epsilon sim 0.3, dex for the M-sigma relation. These relations will inspire black hole physics, test black hole models implemented in simulations, and estimate unknown black hole masses on an unprecedented precision.

Attention-based neural networks such as transformers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to exhibit in-context learning (ICL): Given a short prompt sequence of tokens from an unseen task, they can formulate relevant per-token and next-token predictions without any parameter updates. By embedding a sequence of labeled training data and unlabeled test data as a prompt, this allows for transformers to behave like supervised learning algorithms. Indeed, recent work has shown that when training transformer architectures over random instances of linear regression problems, these models' predictions mimic those of ordinary least squares. Towards understanding the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon, we investigate the dynamics of ICL in transformers with a single linear self-attention layer trained by gradient flow on linear regression tasks. We show that despite non-convexity, gradient flow with a suitable random initialization finds a global minimum of the objective function. At this global minimum, when given a test prompt of labeled examples from a new prediction task, the transformer achieves prediction error competitive with the best linear predictor over the test prompt distribution. We additionally characterize the robustness of the trained transformer to a variety of distribution shifts and show that although a number of shifts are tolerated, shifts in the covariate distribution of the prompts are not. Motivated by this, we consider a generalized ICL setting where the covariate distributions can vary across prompts. We show that although gradient flow succeeds at finding a global minimum in this setting, the trained transformer is still brittle under mild covariate shifts. We complement this finding with experiments on large, nonlinear transformer architectures which we show are more robust under covariate shifts.

Removing degradation from document images not only improves their visual quality and readability, but also enhances the performance of numerous automated document analysis and recognition tasks. However, existing regression-based methods optimized for pixel-level distortion reduction tend to suffer from significant loss of high-frequency information, leading to distorted and blurred text edges. To compensate for this major deficiency, we propose DocDiff, the first diffusion-based framework specifically designed for diverse challenging document enhancement problems, including document deblurring, denoising, and removal of watermarks and seals. DocDiff consists of two modules: the Coarse Predictor (CP), which is responsible for recovering the primary low-frequency content, and the High-Frequency Residual Refinement (HRR) module, which adopts the diffusion models to predict the residual (high-frequency information, including text edges), between the ground-truth and the CP-predicted image. DocDiff is a compact and computationally efficient model that benefits from a well-designed network architecture, an optimized training loss objective, and a deterministic sampling process with short time steps. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DocDiff achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on multiple benchmark datasets, and can significantly enhance the readability and recognizability of degraded document images. Furthermore, our proposed HRR module in pre-trained DocDiff is plug-and-play and ready-to-use, with only 4.17M parameters. It greatly sharpens the text edges generated by SOTA deblurring methods without additional joint training. Available codes: https://github.com/Royalvice/DocDiff

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Hate speech detection is a challenging problem with most of the datasets available in only one language: English. In this paper, we conduct a large scale analysis of multilingual hate speech in 9 languages from 16 different sources. We observe that in low resource setting, simple models such as LASER embedding with logistic regression performs the best, while in high resource setting BERT based models perform better. In case of zero-shot classification, languages such as Italian and Portuguese achieve good results. Our proposed framework could be used as an efficient solution for low-resource languages. These models could also act as good baselines for future multilingual hate speech detection tasks. We have made our code and experimental settings public for other researchers at https://github.com/punyajoy/DE-LIMIT.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Providing effective treatment and making informed clinical decisions are essential goals of modern medicine and clinical care. We are interested in simulating disease dynamics for clinical decision-making, leveraging recent advances in large generative models. To this end, we introduce the Medical World Model (MeWM), the first world model in medicine that visually predicts future disease states based on clinical decisions. MeWM comprises (i) vision-language models to serve as policy models, and (ii) tumor generative models as dynamics models. The policy model generates action plans, such as clinical treatments, while the dynamics model simulates tumor progression or regression under given treatment conditions. Building on this, we propose the inverse dynamics model that applies survival analysis to the simulated post-treatment tumor, enabling the evaluation of treatment efficacy and the selection of the optimal clinical action plan. As a result, the proposed MeWM simulates disease dynamics by synthesizing post-treatment tumors, with state-of-the-art specificity in Turing tests evaluated by radiologists. Simultaneously, its inverse dynamics model outperforms medical-specialized GPTs in optimizing individualized treatment protocols across all metrics. Notably, MeWM improves clinical decision-making for interventional physicians, boosting F1-score in selecting the optimal TACE protocol by 13%, paving the way for future integration of medical world models as the second readers.

In representation learning, uniformity refers to the uniform feature distribution in the latent space (i.e., unit hypersphere). Previous work has shown that improving uniformity contributes to the learning of under-represented classes. However, most of the previous work focused on classification; the representation space of imbalanced regression remains unexplored. Classification-based methods are not suitable for regression tasks because they cluster features into distinct groups without considering the continuous and ordered nature essential for regression. In a geometric aspect, we uniquely focus on ensuring uniformity in the latent space for imbalanced regression through two key losses: enveloping and homogeneity. The enveloping loss encourages the induced trace to uniformly occupy the surface of a hypersphere, while the homogeneity loss ensures smoothness, with representations evenly spaced at consistent intervals. Our method integrates these geometric principles into the data representations via a Surrogate-driven Representation Learning (SRL) framework. Experiments with real-world regression and operator learning tasks highlight the importance of uniformity in imbalanced regression and validate the efficacy of our geometry-based loss functions.

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

Depression poses significant challenges to patients and healthcare organizations, necessitating efficient assessment methods. Existing paradigms typically focus on a patient-doctor way that overlooks multi-role interactions, such as family involvement in the evaluation and caregiving process. Moreover, current automatic depression detection (ADD) methods usually model depression detection as a classification or regression task, lacking interpretability for the decision-making process. To address these issues, we developed InterMind, a doctor-patient-family interactive depression assessment system empowered by large language models (LLMs). Our system enables patients and families to contribute descriptions, generates assistive diagnostic reports for doctors, and provides actionable insights, improving diagnostic precision and efficiency. To enhance LLMs' performance in psychological counseling and diagnostic interpretability, we integrate retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and chain-of-thoughts (CoT) techniques for data augmentation, which mitigates the hallucination issue of LLMs in specific scenarios after instruction fine-tuning. Quantitative experiments and professional assessments by clinicians validate the effectiveness of our system.

We propose an algorithm for meta-learning that is model-agnostic, in the sense that it is compatible with any model trained with gradient descent and applicable to a variety of different learning problems, including classification, regression, and reinforcement learning. The goal of meta-learning is to train a model on a variety of learning tasks, such that it can solve new learning tasks using only a small number of training samples. In our approach, the parameters of the model are explicitly trained such that a small number of gradient steps with a small amount of training data from a new task will produce good generalization performance on that task. In effect, our method trains the model to be easy to fine-tune. We demonstrate that this approach leads to state-of-the-art performance on two few-shot image classification benchmarks, produces good results on few-shot regression, and accelerates fine-tuning for policy gradient reinforcement learning with neural network policies.

Despite the widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs), their strongest capabilities remain largely confined to a small number of high-resource languages for which there is abundant training data. Recently, continual pre-training (CPT) has emerged as a means to fine-tune these models to low-resource regional dialects. In this paper, we study the use of CPT for dialect learning under tight data and compute budgets. Using low-rank adaptation (LoRA) and compute-efficient continual pre-training, we adapt three LLMs to the Qu\'ebec French dialect using a very small dataset and benchmark them on the COLE suite. Our experiments demonstrate an improvement on the minority dialect benchmarks with minimal regression on the prestige language benchmarks with under 1% of model parameters updated. Analysis of the results demonstrate that gains are highly contingent on corpus composition. These findings indicate that CPT with parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) can narrow the dialect gap by providing cost-effective and sustainable language resource creation, expanding high-quality LLM access to minority linguistic communities. We release the first Qu\'ebec French LLMs on HuggingFace.

Today, Earth Observation (EO) satellites generate massive volumes of data, with the Copernicus Sentinel-2 constellation alone producing approximately 1.6TB per day. To fully exploit this information, it is essential to pretrain EO Foundation Models (FMs) on large unlabeled datasets, enabling efficient fine-tuning for several different downstream tasks with minimal labeled data. In this work, we present the scaling-up of our recently proposed EO Foundation Model, PhilEO Geo-Aware U-Net, on the unlabeled 23TB dataset MajorTOM, which covers the vast majority of the Earth's surface, as well as on the specialized subset FastTOM 2TB that does not include oceans and ice. We develop and study various PhilEO model variants with different numbers of parameters and architectures. Finally, we fine-tune the models on the PhilEO Bench for road density estimation, building density pixel-wise regression, and land cover semantic segmentation, and we evaluate the performance. Our results demonstrate that for all n-shots for road density regression, the PhilEO 44M MajorTOM 23TB model outperforms PhilEO Globe 0.5TB 44M. We also show that for most n-shots for road density estimation and building density regression, PhilEO 200M FastTOM outperforms all the other models. The effectiveness of both dataset and model scaling is validated using the PhilEO Bench. We also study the impact of architecture scaling, transitioning from U-Net Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to Vision Transformers (ViT).

Missing instances in time series data impose a significant challenge to deep learning models, particularly in regression tasks. In the Earth Observation field, satellite failure or cloud occlusion frequently results in missing time-steps, introducing uncertainties in the predicted output and causing a decline in predictive performance. While many studies address missing time-steps through data augmentation to improve model robustness, the uncertainty arising at the input level is commonly overlooked. To address this gap, we introduce Monte Carlo Temporal Dropout (MC-TD), a method that explicitly accounts for input-level uncertainty by randomly dropping time-steps during inference using a predefined dropout ratio, thereby simulating the effect of missing data. To bypass the need for costly searches for the optimal dropout ratio, we extend this approach with Monte Carlo Concrete Temporal Dropout (MC-ConcTD), a method that learns the optimal dropout distribution directly. Both MC-TD and MC-ConcTD are applied during inference, leveraging Monte Carlo sampling for uncertainty quantification. Experiments on three EO time-series datasets demonstrate that MC-ConcTD improves predictive performance and uncertainty calibration compared to existing approaches. Additionally, we highlight the advantages of adaptive dropout tuning over manual selection, making uncertainty quantification more robust and accessible for EO applications.

We present AnyCalib, a method for calibrating the intrinsic parameters of a camera from a single in-the-wild image, that is agnostic to the camera model. Current methods are predominantly tailored to specific camera models and/or require extrinsic cues, such as the direction of gravity, to be visible in the image. In contrast, we argue that the perspective and distortion cues inherent in images are sufficient for model-agnostic camera calibration. To demonstrate this, we frame the calibration process as the regression of the rays corresponding to each pixel. We show, for the first time, that this intermediate representation allows for a closed-form recovery of the intrinsics for a wide range of camera models, including but not limited to: pinhole, Brown-Conrady and Kannala-Brandt. Our approach also applies to edited -- cropped and stretched -- images. Experimentally, we demonstrate that AnyCalib consistently outperforms alternative methods, including 3D foundation models, despite being trained on orders of magnitude less data. Code is available at https://github.com/javrtg/AnyCalib.

Predicting temporal progress from visual trajectories is important for intelligent robots that can learn, adapt, and improve. However, learning such progress estimator, or temporal value function, across different tasks and domains requires both a large amount of diverse data and methods which can scale and generalize. To address these challenges, we present Generative Value Learning (\GVL), a universal value function estimator that leverages the world knowledge embedded in vision-language models (VLMs) to predict task progress. Naively asking a VLM to predict values for a video sequence performs poorly due to the strong temporal correlation between successive frames. Instead, GVL poses value estimation as a temporal ordering problem over shuffled video frames; this seemingly more challenging task encourages VLMs to more fully exploit their underlying semantic and temporal grounding capabilities to differentiate frames based on their perceived task progress, consequently producing significantly better value predictions. Without any robot or task specific training, GVL can in-context zero-shot and few-shot predict effective values for more than 300 distinct real-world tasks across diverse robot platforms, including challenging bimanual manipulation tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that GVL permits flexible multi-modal in-context learning via examples from heterogeneous tasks and embodiments, such as human videos. The generality of GVL enables various downstream applications pertinent to visuomotor policy learning, including dataset filtering, success detection, and advantage-weighted regression -- all without any model training or finetuning.

In continual learning, catastrophic forgetting is affected by multiple aspects of the tasks. Previous works have analyzed separately how forgetting is affected by either task similarity or overparameterization. In contrast, our paper examines how task similarity and overparameterization jointly affect forgetting in an analyzable model. Specifically, we focus on two-task continual linear regression, where the second task is a random orthogonal transformation of an arbitrary first task (an abstraction of random permutation tasks). We derive an exact analytical expression for the expected forgetting - and uncover a nuanced pattern. In highly overparameterized models, intermediate task similarity causes the most forgetting. However, near the interpolation threshold, forgetting decreases monotonically with the expected task similarity. We validate our findings with linear regression on synthetic data, and with neural networks on established permutation task benchmarks.

Efficient computation or approximation of Levenshtein distance, a widely-used metric for evaluating sequence similarity, has attracted significant attention with the emergence of DNA storage and other biological applications. Sequence embedding, which maps Levenshtein distance to a conventional distance between embedding vectors, has emerged as a promising solution. In this paper, a novel neural network-based sequence embedding technique using Poisson regression is proposed. We first provide a theoretical analysis of the impact of embedding dimension on model performance and present a criterion for selecting an appropriate embedding dimension. Under this embedding dimension, the Poisson regression is introduced by assuming the Levenshtein distance between sequences of fixed length following a Poisson distribution, which naturally aligns with the definition of Levenshtein distance. Moreover, from the perspective of the distribution of embedding distances, Poisson regression approximates the negative log likelihood of the chi-squared distribution and offers advancements in removing the skewness. Through comprehensive experiments on real DNA storage data, we demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Transfer learning is a crucial technique for handling a small amount of data that is potentially related to other abundant data. However, most of the existing methods are focused on classification tasks using images and language datasets. Therefore, in order to expand the transfer learning scheme to regression tasks, we propose a novel transfer technique based on differential geometry, namely the Geometrically Aligned Transfer Encoder (GATE). In this method, we interpret the latent vectors from the model to exist on a Riemannian curved manifold. We find a proper diffeomorphism between pairs of tasks to ensure that every arbitrary point maps to a locally flat coordinate in the overlapping region, allowing the transfer of knowledge from the source to the target data. This also serves as an effective regularizer for the model to behave in extrapolation regions. In this article, we demonstrate that GATE outperforms conventional methods and exhibits stable behavior in both the latent space and extrapolation regions for various molecular graph datasets.

In this work, we propose to study the performance of a model trained with a sentence embedding regression loss component for the Automated Audio Captioning task. This task aims to build systems that can describe audio content with a single sentence written in natural language. Most systems are trained with the standard Cross-Entropy loss, which does not take into account the semantic closeness of the sentence. We found that adding a sentence embedding loss term reduces overfitting, but also increased SPIDEr from 0.397 to 0.418 in our first setting on the AudioCaps corpus. When we increased the weight decay value, we found our model to be much closer to the current state-of-the-art methods, with a SPIDEr score up to 0.444 compared to a 0.475 score. Moreover, this model uses eight times less trainable parameters. In this training setting, the sentence embedding loss has no more impact on the model performance.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

Classification algorithms have recently found applications in computational physics for the selection of numerical methods or models adapted to the environment and the state of the physical system. For such classification tasks, labeled training data come from numerical simulations and generally correspond to physical fields discretized on a mesh. Three challenging difficulties arise: the lack of training data, their high dimensionality, and the non-applicability of common data augmentation techniques to physics data. This article introduces two algorithms to address these issues, one for dimensionality reduction via feature selection, and one for data augmentation. These algorithms are combined with a wide variety of classifiers for their evaluation. When combined with a stacking ensemble made of six multilayer perceptrons and a ridge logistic regression, they enable reaching an accuracy of 90% on our classification problem for nonlinear structural mechanics.

We develop a general approach to distill symbolic representations of a learned deep model by introducing strong inductive biases. We focus on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). The technique works as follows: we first encourage sparse latent representations when we train a GNN in a supervised setting, then we apply symbolic regression to components of the learned model to extract explicit physical relations. We find the correct known equations, including force laws and Hamiltonians, can be extracted from the neural network. We then apply our method to a non-trivial cosmology example-a detailed dark matter simulation-and discover a new analytic formula which can predict the concentration of dark matter from the mass distribution of nearby cosmic structures. The symbolic expressions extracted from the GNN using our technique also generalized to out-of-distribution data better than the GNN itself. Our approach offers alternative directions for interpreting neural networks and discovering novel physical principles from the representations they learn.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

"If I provide you a face image of mine (without telling you the actual age when I took the picture) and a large amount of face images that I crawled (containing labeled faces of different ages but not necessarily paired), can you show me what I would look like when I am 80 or what I was like when I was 5?" The answer is probably a "No." Most existing face aging works attempt to learn the transformation between age groups and thus would require the paired samples as well as the labeled query image. In this paper, we look at the problem from a generative modeling perspective such that no paired samples is required. In addition, given an unlabeled image, the generative model can directly produce the image with desired age attribute. We propose a conditional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) that learns a face manifold, traversing on which smooth age progression and regression can be realized simultaneously. In CAAE, the face is first mapped to a latent vector through a convolutional encoder, and then the vector is projected to the face manifold conditional on age through a deconvolutional generator. The latent vector preserves personalized face features (i.e., personality) and the age condition controls progression vs. regression. Two adversarial networks are imposed on the encoder and generator, respectively, forcing to generate more photo-realistic faces. Experimental results demonstrate the appealing performance and flexibility of the proposed framework by comparing with the state-of-the-art and ground truth.