Daily Papers

Open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly specialize by domain (e.g., math, code, general reasoning), motivating systems that leverage complementary strengths across models. Prior multi-LLM approaches either (i) route a query to one or a few experts and generate independently, (ii) aggregate outputs from each model via costly multi-turn exchanges, or (iii) fuse weights into a single model-typically requiring architectural homogeneity. We introduce Mixture of Thoughts (MoT), a simple method for latent-level collaboration among heterogeneous experts under a global routing scheme. For each query, a lightweight router selects top-K experts and designates a primary expert; uniformly placed interaction layers project hidden states into a shared latent space where the primary expert performs cross-attention over its active (selected) peers. Pre-trained experts remain frozen; only the router and the lightweight interaction layers are trained with a novel joint training objective that improves both the expert selection and inter-expert collaboration. Across five in-distribution (ID) and three out-of-distribution (OOD) benchmarks, MoT surpasses the current routing and aggregation-based state-of-the-art, Avengers, by +0.38% and +2.92%, respectively. Further, MoT significantly outperforms the best-performing single model. It achieves this with single-pass inference, runtime comparable to routing baselines, and none of the overheads of iterative aggregation. MoT offers a simple latent-space mechanism for combining heterogeneous LLMs, a practical step toward broader multi-LLM collaboration. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/jacobfa/mot.

Many applications today provide users with multiple auto-complete drafts as they type, including GitHub's code completion, Gmail's smart compose, and Apple's messaging auto-suggestions. Under the hood, language models support this by running an autoregressive inference pass to provide a draft. Consequently, providing k drafts to the user requires running an expensive language model k times. To alleviate the computation cost of running k inference passes, we propose Superposed Decoding, a new decoding algorithm that generates k drafts at the computation cost of one autoregressive inference pass. We achieve this by feeding a superposition of the most recent token embeddings from the k drafts as input to the next decoding step of the language model. At every inference step we combine the k drafts with the top-k tokens to get k^2 new drafts and cache the k most likely options, using an n-gram interpolation with minimal compute overhead to filter out incoherent generations. Our experiments show that k drafts from Superposed Decoding are at least as coherent and factual as Nucleus Sampling and Greedy Decoding respectively, while being at least 2.44times faster for kge3. In a compute-normalized setting, user evaluations demonstrably favor text generated by Superposed Decoding over Nucleus Sampling. Code and more examples open-sourced at https://github.com/RAIVNLab/SuperposedDecoding.

Tasks requiring deductive reasoning, especially those involving multiple steps, often demand adaptive strategies such as intermediate generation of rationales or programs, as no single approach is universally optimal. While Language Models (LMs) can enhance their outputs through iterative self-refinement and strategy adjustments, they frequently fail to apply the most effective strategy in their first attempt. This inefficiency raises the question: Can LMs learn to select the optimal strategy in the first attempt, without a need for refinement? To address this challenge, we introduce SMART (Self-learning Meta-strategy Agent for Reasoning Tasks), a novel framework that enables LMs to autonomously learn and select the most effective strategies for various reasoning tasks. We model the strategy selection process as a Markov Decision Process and leverage reinforcement learning-driven continuous self-improvement to allow the model to find the suitable strategy to solve a given task. Unlike traditional self-refinement methods that rely on multiple inference passes or external feedback, SMART allows an LM to internalize the outcomes of its own reasoning processes and adjust its strategy accordingly, aiming for correct solutions on the first attempt. Our experiments across various reasoning datasets and with different model architectures demonstrate that SMART significantly enhances the ability of models to choose optimal strategies without external guidance (+15 points on the GSM8K dataset). By achieving higher accuracy with a single inference pass, SMART not only improves performance but also reduces computational costs for refinement-based strategies, paving the way for more efficient and intelligent reasoning in LMs.

Neuroimage processing tasks like segmentation, reconstruction, and registration are central to the study of neuroscience. Robust deep learning strategies and architectures used to solve these tasks are often similar. Yet, when presented with a new task or a dataset with different visual characteristics, practitioners most often need to train a new model, or fine-tune an existing one. This is a time-consuming process that poses a substantial barrier for the thousands of neuroscientists and clinical researchers who often lack the resources or machine-learning expertise to train deep learning models. In practice, this leads to a lack of adoption of deep learning, and neuroscience tools being dominated by classical frameworks. We introduce Neuralizer, a single model that generalizes to previously unseen neuroimaging tasks and modalities without the need for re-training or fine-tuning. Tasks do not have to be known a priori, and generalization happens in a single forward pass during inference. The model can solve processing tasks across multiple image modalities, acquisition methods, and datasets, and generalize to tasks and modalities it has not been trained on. Our experiments on coronal slices show that when few annotated subjects are available, our multi-task network outperforms task-specific baselines without training on the task.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are energy efficient alternatives to commonly used deep neural networks (DNNs). Through event-driven information processing, SNNs can reduce the expensive compute requirements of DNNs considerably, while achieving comparable performance. However, high inference latency is a significant hindrance to the edge deployment of deep SNNs. Computation over multiple timesteps not only increases latency as well as overall energy budget due to higher number of operations, but also incurs memory access overhead of fetching membrane potentials, both of which lessen the energy benefits of SNNs. To overcome this bottleneck and leverage the full potential of SNNs, we propose an Iterative Initialization and Retraining method for SNNs (IIR-SNN) to perform single shot inference in the temporal axis. The method starts with an SNN trained with T timesteps (T>1). Then at each stage of latency reduction, the network trained at previous stage with higher timestep is utilized as initialization for subsequent training with lower timestep. This acts as a compression method, as the network is gradually shrunk in the temporal domain. In this paper, we use direct input encoding and choose T=5, since as per literature, it is the minimum required latency to achieve satisfactory performance on ImageNet. The proposed scheme allows us to obtain SNNs with up to unit latency, requiring a single forward pass during inference. We achieve top-1 accuracy of 93.05%, 70.15% and 67.71% on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet, respectively using VGG16, with just 1 timestep. In addition, IIR-SNNs perform inference with 5-2500X reduced latency compared to other state-of-the-art SNNs, maintaining comparable or even better accuracy. Furthermore, in comparison with standard DNNs, the proposed IIR-SNNs provide25-33X higher energy efficiency, while being comparable to them in classification performance.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success on a broad range of tasks, math reasoning remains a challenging one. One of the approaches for improving math reasoning is self-correction, which designs self-improving loops to let the model correct its own mistakes. However, existing self-correction approaches treat corrections as standalone post-generation refinements, relying on extra prompt and system designs to elicit self-corrections, instead of performing real-time, spontaneous self-corrections in a single pass. To address this, we propose SPOC, a spontaneous self-correction approach that enables LLMs to generate interleaved solutions and verifications in a single inference pass, with generation dynamically terminated based on verification outcomes, thereby effectively scaling inference time compute. SPOC considers a multi-agent perspective by assigning dual roles -- solution proposer and verifier -- to the same model. We adopt a simple yet effective approach to generate synthetic data for fine-tuning, enabling the model to develop capabilities for self-verification and multi-agent collaboration. We further improve its solution proposal and verification accuracy through online reinforcement learning. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that SPOC significantly improves performance. Notably, SPOC boosts the accuracy of Llama-3.1-8B and 70B Instruct models, achieving gains of 8.8% and 11.6% on MATH500, 10.0% and 20.0% on AMC23, and 3.3% and 6.7% on AIME24, respectively.

Process or step-wise supervision has played a crucial role in advancing complex multi-step reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, efficient, high-quality automated process annotation remains a significant challenge. To address this, we introduce Single-Pass Annotation with Reference-Guided Evaluation (SPARE), a novel structured framework that enables single-pass, per-step annotation by aligning each solution step to one or multiple steps in a reference solution, accompanied by explicit reasoning for evaluation. We show that reference-guided step-level evaluation effectively facilitates process supervision on four datasets spanning three domains: mathematical reasoning, multi-hop compositional question answering, and spatial reasoning. We demonstrate that SPARE, when compared to baselines, improves reasoning performance when used for: (1) fine-tuning models in an offline RL setup for inference-time greedy-decoding, and (2) training reward models for ranking/aggregating multiple LLM-generated outputs. Additionally, SPARE achieves competitive performance on challenging mathematical datasets while offering 2.6 times greater efficiency, requiring only 38% of the runtime, compared to tree search-based automatic annotation. The codebase, along with a trained SPARE-PRM model, is publicly released to facilitate further research and reproducibility.

Recently, the open-vocabulary semantic segmentation problem has attracted increasing attention and the best performing methods are based on two-stream networks: one stream for proposal mask generation and the other for segment classification using a pretrained visual-language model. However, existing two-stream methods require passing a great number of (up to a hundred) image crops into the visual-language model, which is highly inefficient. To address the problem, we propose a network that only needs a single pass through the visual-language model for each input image. Specifically, we first propose a novel network adaptation approach, termed patch severance, to restrict the harmful interference between the patch embeddings in the pre-trained visual encoder. We then propose classification anchor learning to encourage the network to spatially focus on more discriminative features for classification. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves outstanding performance, surpassing state-of-the-art methods while being 4 to 7 times faster at inference. Code: https://github.com/CongHan0808/DeOP.git

Test-time scaling (TTS) has enhanced the performance of Reasoning Models (RMs) on various tasks such as math and coding, yet its efficacy in machine translation (MT) remains underexplored. This paper investigates whether increased inference-time computation improves translation quality. We evaluate 12 RMs across a diverse suite of MT benchmarks spanning multiple domains, examining three scenarios: direct translation, forced-reasoning extrapolation, and post-editing. Our findings show that for general-purpose RMs, TTS provides limited and inconsistent benefits for direct translation, with performance quickly plateauing. However, the effectiveness of TTS is unlocked by domain-specific fine-tuning, which aligns a model's reasoning process with task requirements, leading to consistent improvements up to an optimal, self-determined reasoning depth. We also find that forcing a model to reason beyond its natural stopping point consistently degrades translation quality. In contrast, TTS proves highly effective in a post-editing context, reliably turning self-correction into a beneficial process. These results indicate that the value of inference-time computation in MT lies not in enhancing single-pass translation with general models, but in targeted applications like multi-step, self-correction workflows and in conjunction with task-specialized models.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

3D reconstruction, which aims to recover the dense three-dimensional structure of a scene, is a cornerstone technology for numerous applications, including augmented/virtual reality, autonomous driving, and robotics. While traditional pipelines like Structure from Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS) achieve high precision through iterative optimization, they are limited by complex workflows, high computational cost, and poor robustness in challenging scenarios like texture-less regions. Recently, deep learning has catalyzed a paradigm shift in 3D reconstruction. A new family of models, exemplified by DUSt3R, has pioneered a feed-forward approach. These models employ a unified deep network to jointly infer camera poses and dense geometry directly from an Unconstrained set of images in a single forward pass. This survey provides a systematic review of this emerging domain. We begin by dissecting the technical framework of these feed-forward models, including their Transformer-based correspondence modeling, joint pose and geometry regression mechanisms, and strategies for scaling from two-view to multi-view scenarios. To highlight the disruptive nature of this new paradigm, we contrast it with both traditional pipelines and earlier learning-based methods like MVSNet. Furthermore, we provide an overview of relevant datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we discuss the technology's broad application prospects and identify key future challenges and opportunities, such as model accuracy and scalability, and handling dynamic scenes.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable visual understanding performance on both vision-language and vision-centric tasks. However, they often fall short in integrating advanced, task-specific capabilities for compositional reasoning, which hinders their progress toward truly competent general vision models. To address this, we present a unified visual reasoning mechanism that enables LMMs to solve complicated compositional problems by leveraging their intrinsic capabilities (e.g. grounding and visual understanding capabilities). Different from the previous shortcut learning mechanism, our approach introduces a human-like understanding-thinking-answering process, allowing the model to complete all steps in a single pass forwarding without the need for multiple inferences or external tools. This design bridges the gap between foundational visual capabilities and general question answering, encouraging LMMs to generate faithful and traceable responses for complex visual reasoning. Meanwhile, we curate 334K visual instruction samples covering both general scenes and text-rich scenes and involving multiple foundational visual capabilities. Our trained model, Griffon-R, has the ability of end-to-end automatic understanding, self-thinking, and reasoning answers. Comprehensive experiments show that Griffon-R not only achieves advancing performance on complex visual reasoning benchmarks including VSR and CLEVR, but also enhances multimodal capabilities across various benchmarks like MMBench and ScienceQA. Data, models, and codes will be release at https://github.com/jefferyZhan/Griffon/tree/master/Griffon-R soon.

LLM inference often generates a batch of candidates for a prompt and selects one via strategies like majority voting or Best-of- N (BoN). For difficult tasks, this single-shot selection often underperforms. Consequently, evaluations commonly report Pass@k: the agent may submit up to k responses, and only the best of them is used when computing regret. Motivated by this, we study inference scaling in the more general Pass@k inference setting, and prove that neither majority voting nor BoN exhibits the desirable scaling with k and the sampling budget N. Combining the advantages of majority voting and BoN, we propose a new inference strategy called Best-of-Majority (BoM), with a pivotal step that restricts the candidates to the responses with high frequency in the N samples before selecting the top-k rewards. We prove that when the sampling budget is N=tildeOmega(C^*), the regret of BoM is O(epsilon_{opt}+epsilon_{mathrm{RM}^2C^*/k}), where C^* is the coverage coefficient, epsilon_{RM} is the estimation error of the reward model, and epsilon_{opt} is the estimation error of reward at the optimal response. We further establish a matching lower bound, certifying that our algorithm is minimax optimal. Beyond optimality, BoM has a key advantage: unlike majority voting and BoN, its performance does not degrade when increasing N. Experimental results of inference on math problems show BoM outperforming both majority voting and BoN.

In Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and agent-based frameworks, the "Chain of Models" approach is widely used, where multiple specialized models work sequentially on distinct sub-tasks. This approach is effective but increases resource demands as each model must be deployed separately. Recent advancements attempt to address this by applying prompt tuning, which allows a shared base model to adapt to multiple tasks with minimal parameter changes. However, a key challenge remains: intermediate outputs, passed between models as plain text, require recomputation of hidden states (i.e., Key and Value (KV) states in Transformers) during inference. In this paper, we introduce FTHSS, a novel prompt-tuning method that enables models to share KV hidden states, eliminating redundant forward passes and reducing KV cache storage. By modifying input and attention masks during training, FTHSS allows models to effectively utilize KV hidden states from prior models in both single- and multi-round scenarios. Empirical results on four tasks show that FTHSS matches the performance of traditional model chains while improving inference efficiency.

Large language models (LMs) are typically adapted to improve performance on new contexts (\eg text prompts that define new tasks or domains) through fine-tuning or prompting. However, there is an accuracy compute tradeoff -- fine-tuning incurs significant training cost and prompting increases inference overhead. We introduce GenerativeAdapter, an effective and efficient adaptation method that directly maps new contexts to low-rank LM adapters, thereby significantly reducing inference overhead with no need for finetuning. The adapter generator is trained via self-supervised learning, and can be used to adapt a single frozen LM for any new task simply by mapping the associated task or domain context to a new adapter. We apply GenerativeAdapter to two pretrained LMs (Mistral-7B-Instruct and Llama2-7B-Chat) and evaluate the adapted models in three adaption scenarios: knowledge acquisition from documents, learning from demonstrations, and personalization for users. In StreamingQA, our approach is effective in injecting knowledge into the LM's parameters, achieving a 63.5% improvement in F1 score over the model with supervised fine-tuning (from 19.5 to 31.5) for contexts as long as 32K tokens. In the MetaICL in-context learning evaluation, our method achieves an average accuracy of 44.9 across 26 tasks, outperforming the base model. On MSC, our method proves to be highly competitive in memorizing user information from conversations with a 4x reduction in computation and memory costs compared to prompting with full conversation history. Together, these results suggest that GenerativeAdapter should allow for general adaption to a wide range of different contexts.

The autoregressive nature of large language models (LLMs) limits inference speed. Each forward pass generates only a single token and is often bottlenecked by memory bandwidth. Speculative decoding alleviates this issue using a draft-then-verify approach to accelerate token generation. However, the overhead introduced during the draft phase and the training cost of the draft model limit the efficiency and adaptability of speculative decoding. In this work, we introduce PARallel Draft (PARD), a novel speculative decoding method that enables low-cost adaptation of autoregressive draft models into parallel draft models. PARD enhances inference efficiency by predicting multiple future tokens in a single forward pass of the draft phase, and incorporates a conditional drop token method to accelerate training. Its target-independence property allows a single draft model to be applied to an entire family of different models, minimizing the adaptation cost. Our proposed conditional drop token method can improves draft model training efficiency by 3x. On our optimized inference framework, PARD accelerates LLaMA3.1-8B inference by 4.08x, achieving 311.5 tokens per second.

We propose NViST, a transformer-based model for novel-view synthesis from a single image, trained on a large-scale dataset of in-the-wild images with complex backgrounds. NViST transforms image inputs directly into a radiance field, adopting a scalable transformer-based architecture. In practice, NViST exploits the self-supervised features learnt by a masked autoencoder (MAE), and learns a novel decoder that translates features to 3D tokens via cross-attention and adaptive layer normalization. Our model is efficient at inference since only a single forward-pass is needed to predict a 3D representation, unlike methods that require test-time optimization or sampling such as 3D-aware diffusion models. We tackle further limitations of current new-view synthesis models. First, unlike most generative models that are trained in a category-specific manner, often on synthetic datasets or on masked inputs, our model is trained on MVImgNet, a large-scale dataset of real-world, casually-captured videos containing hundreds of object categories with diverse backgrounds. Secondly, our model does not require canonicalization of the training data - i.e. aligning all objects with a frontal view - only needing relative pose at training time which removes a substantial barrier to it being used on casually captured datasets. We show results on unseen objects and categories on MVImgNet and even casual phone captures. We conduct qualitative and quantitative evaluations on MVImgNet and ShapeNet to show that our model represents a step forward towards enabling true in-the-wild novel-view synthesis from a single image.

The recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have been extraordinary, yet the escalating inference costs associated with them present challenges in real-world applications. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach called Early-exiting Speculative Decoding (EESD) with lossless acceleration. Specifically, EESD utilizes a segment of the LLM to generate draft tokens, incorporating Early-exiting structures after the first N layers. To enhance the quality of draft tokens, a self-distillation method is integrated. This early-exiting design not only reduces deployment and training costs but also significantly accelerates the token generation speed. Moreover, we introduce a novel sampling mechanism that leverages Thompson Sampling to regulate the generation processes, automatically determining the quantity of draft tokens in each round. The original LLM is then employed to validate these draft tokens through a single forward pass, and thus guarantees that the final output text maintains a distribution consistent with vanilla auto-regressive decoding. The experimental results on both 13B and 70B models demonstrate that our approach decodes tokens at a markedly accelerated rate compared to prior methods, showing the effectiveness of our approach.

Striking an optimal balance between minimal drafting latency and high speculation accuracy to enhance the inference speed of Large Language Models remains a significant challenge in speculative decoding. In this paper, we introduce Falcon, an innovative semi-autoregressive speculative decoding framework fashioned to augment both the drafter's parallelism and output quality. Falcon incorporates the Coupled Sequential Glancing Distillation technique, which fortifies inter-token dependencies within the same block, leading to increased speculation accuracy. We offer a comprehensive theoretical analysis to illuminate the underlying mechanisms. Additionally, we introduce a Custom-Designed Decoding Tree, which permits the drafter to generate multiple tokens in a single forward pass and accommodates multiple forward passes as needed, thereby boosting the number of drafted tokens and significantly improving the overall acceptance rate. Comprehensive evaluations on benchmark datasets such as MT-Bench, HumanEval, and GSM8K demonstrate Falcon's superior acceleration capabilities. The framework achieves a lossless speedup ratio ranging from 2.91x to 3.51x when tested on the Vicuna and LLaMA2-Chat model series. These results outstrip existing speculative decoding methods for LLMs, including Eagle, Medusa, Lookahead, SPS, and PLD, while maintaining a compact drafter architecture equivalent to merely two Transformer layers.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in various natural language processing tasks, yet their ability to perform multi-step logical reasoning remains an open challenge. Although Chain-of-Thought prompting has improved logical reasoning by enabling models to generate intermediate steps, it lacks mechanisms to assess the coherence of these logical transitions. In this paper, we propose a novel, lightweight evaluation strategy for logical reasoning that uses query-key alignments inside transformer attention heads. By computing a single forward pass and extracting a "QK-score" from carefully chosen heads, our method reveals latent representations that reliably separate valid from invalid inferences, offering a scalable alternative to traditional ablation-based techniques. We also provide an empirical validation on multiple logical reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating improved robustness of our evaluation method against distractors and increased reasoning depth. The experiments were conducted on a diverse set of models, ranging from 1.5B to 70B parameters.

The popular CLIP model displays impressive zero-shot capabilities thanks to its seamless interaction with arbitrary text prompts. However, its lack of spatial awareness makes it unsuitable for dense computer vision tasks, e.g., semantic segmentation, without an additional fine-tuning step that often uses annotations and can potentially suppress its original open-vocabulary properties. Meanwhile, self-supervised representation methods have demonstrated good localization properties without human-made annotations nor explicit supervision. In this work, we take the best of both worlds and propose a zero-shot open-vocabulary semantic segmentation method, which does not require any annotations. We propose to locally improve dense MaskCLIP features, computed with a simple modification of CLIP's last pooling layer, by integrating localization priors extracted from self-supervised features. By doing so, we greatly improve the performance of MaskCLIP and produce smooth outputs. Moreover, we show that the used self-supervised feature properties can directly be learnt from CLIP features therefore allowing us to obtain the best results with a single pass through CLIP model. Our method CLIP-DINOiser needs only a single forward pass of CLIP and two light convolutional layers at inference, no extra supervision nor extra memory and reaches state-of-the-art results on challenging and fine-grained benchmarks such as COCO, Pascal Context, Cityscapes and ADE20k. The code to reproduce our results is available at https://github.com/wysoczanska/clip_dinoiser.

With the overwhelming amount of data available both on and offline today, recommender systems have become much needed to help users find items tailored to their interests. When social network information exists there are methods that utilize this information to make better recommendations, however the methods are often clunky with complex architectures and training procedures. Furthermore many of the existing methods utilize graph neural networks which are notoriously difficult to train. To address this, we propose Socially-aware Temporally caUsal Decoder recommender sYstems (STUDY). STUDY does joint inference over groups of users who are adjacent in the social network graph using a single forward pass of a modified transformer decoder network. We test our method in a school-based educational content setting, using classroom structure to define social networks. Our method outperforms both social and sequential methods while maintaining the design simplicity of a single homogeneous network that models all interactions in the data. We also carry out ablation studies to understand the drivers of our performance gains and find that our model depends on leveraging a social network structure that effectively models the similarities in user behavior.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Pretrained latent diffusion models have shown strong potential for lossy image compression, owing to their powerful generative priors. Most existing diffusion-based methods reconstruct images by iteratively denoising from random noise, guided by compressed latent representations. While these approaches have achieved high reconstruction quality, their multi-step sampling process incurs substantial computational overhead. Moreover, they typically require training separate models for different compression bit-rates, leading to significant training and storage costs. To address these challenges, we propose a one-step diffusion codec across multiple bit-rates. termed OSCAR. Specifically, our method views compressed latents as noisy variants of the original latents, where the level of distortion depends on the bit-rate. This perspective allows them to be modeled as intermediate states along a diffusion trajectory. By establishing a mapping from the compression bit-rate to a pseudo diffusion timestep, we condition a single generative model to support reconstructions at multiple bit-rates. Meanwhile, we argue that the compressed latents retain rich structural information, thereby making one-step denoising feasible. Thus, OSCAR replaces iterative sampling with a single denoising pass, significantly improving inference efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OSCAR achieves superior performance in both quantitative and visual quality metrics. The code and models will be released at https://github.com/jp-guo/OSCAR.

Scene text recognition (STR) methods have struggled to attain high accuracy and fast inference speed. Autoregressive (AR)-based models implement the recognition in a character-by-character manner, showing superiority in accuracy but with slow inference speed. Alternatively, parallel decoding (PD)-based models infer all characters in a single decoding pass, offering faster inference speed but generally worse accuracy. We first present an empirical study of AR decoding in STR, and discover that the AR decoder not only models linguistic context, but also provides guidance on visual context perception. Consequently, we propose Context Perception Parallel Decoder (CPPD) to predict the character sequence in a PD pass. CPPD devises a character counting module to infer the occurrence count of each character, and a character ordering module to deduce the content-free reading order and placeholders. Meanwhile, the character prediction task associates the placeholders with characters. They together build a comprehensive recognition context. We construct a series of CPPD models and also plug the proposed modules into existing STR decoders. Experiments on both English and Chinese benchmarks demonstrate that the CPPD models achieve highly competitive accuracy while running approximately 8x faster than their AR-based counterparts. Moreover, the plugged models achieve significant accuracy improvements. Code is at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleOCR/blob/dygraph/doc/doc_en/algorithm_rec_cppd_en.md{this https URL}.

We introduce Tangent Attention Fine-Tuning (TAFT), a method for fine-tuning linearized transformers obtained by computing a First-order Taylor Expansion around a pre-trained initialization. We show that the Jacobian-Vector Product resulting from linearization can be computed efficiently in a single forward pass, reducing training and inference cost to the same order of magnitude as its original non-linear counterpart, while using the same number of parameters. Furthermore, we show that, when applied to various downstream visual classification tasks, the resulting Tangent Transformer fine-tuned with TAFT can perform comparably with fine-tuning the original non-linear network. Since Tangent Transformers are linear with respect to the new set of weights, and the resulting fine-tuning loss is convex, we show that TAFT enjoys several advantages compared to non-linear fine-tuning when it comes to model composition, parallel training, machine unlearning, and differential privacy.

Current auto-regressive models can generate high-quality, topologically precise meshes; however, they necessitate thousands-or even tens of thousands-of next-token predictions during inference, resulting in substantial latency. We introduce XSpecMesh, a quality-preserving acceleration method for auto-regressive mesh generation models. XSpecMesh employs a lightweight, multi-head speculative decoding scheme to predict multiple tokens in parallel within a single forward pass, thereby accelerating inference. We further propose a verification and resampling strategy: the backbone model verifies each predicted token and resamples any tokens that do not meet the quality criteria. In addition, we propose a distillation strategy that trains the lightweight decoding heads by distilling from the backbone model, encouraging their prediction distributions to align and improving the success rate of speculative predictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves a 1.7x speedup without sacrificing generation quality. Our code will be released.

Blind face restoration usually relies on facial priors, such as facial geometry prior or reference prior, to restore realistic and faithful details. However, very low-quality inputs cannot offer accurate geometric prior while high-quality references are inaccessible, limiting the applicability in real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose GFP-GAN that leverages rich and diverse priors encapsulated in a pretrained face GAN for blind face restoration. This Generative Facial Prior (GFP) is incorporated into the face restoration process via novel channel-split spatial feature transform layers, which allow our method to achieve a good balance of realness and fidelity. Thanks to the powerful generative facial prior and delicate designs, our GFP-GAN could jointly restore facial details and enhance colors with just a single forward pass, while GAN inversion methods require expensive image-specific optimization at inference. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves superior performance to prior art on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Estimating robot pose from RGB images is a crucial problem in computer vision and robotics. While previous methods have achieved promising performance, most of them presume full knowledge of robot internal states, e.g. ground-truth robot joint angles. However, this assumption is not always valid in practical situations. In real-world applications such as multi-robot collaboration or human-robot interaction, the robot joint states might not be shared or could be unreliable. On the other hand, existing approaches that estimate robot pose without joint state priors suffer from heavy computation burdens and thus cannot support real-time applications. This work introduces an efficient framework for real-time robot pose estimation from RGB images without requiring known robot states. Our method estimates camera-to-robot rotation, robot state parameters, keypoint locations, and root depth, employing a neural network module for each task to facilitate learning and sim-to-real transfer. Notably, it achieves inference in a single feed-forward pass without iterative optimization. Our approach offers a 12-time speed increase with state-of-the-art accuracy, enabling real-time holistic robot pose estimation for the first time. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Oliverbansk/Holistic-Robot-Pose-Estimation.

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

With the growing requirement for natural human-computer interaction, speech-based systems receive increasing attention as speech is one of the most common forms of daily communication. However, the existing speech models still experience high latency when generating the first audio token during streaming, which poses a significant bottleneck for deployment. To address this issue, we propose VITA-Audio, an end-to-end large speech model with fast audio-text token generation. Specifically, we introduce a lightweight Multiple Cross-modal Token Prediction (MCTP) module that efficiently generates multiple audio tokens within a single model forward pass, which not only accelerates the inference but also significantly reduces the latency for generating the first audio in streaming scenarios. In addition, a four-stage progressive training strategy is explored to achieve model acceleration with minimal loss of speech quality. To our knowledge, VITA-Audio is the first multi-modal large language model capable of generating audio output during the first forward pass, enabling real-time conversational capabilities with minimal latency. VITA-Audio is fully reproducible and is trained on open-source data only. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves an inference speedup of 3~5x at the 7B parameter scale, but also significantly outperforms open-source models of similar model size on multiple benchmarks for automatic speech recognition (ASR), text-to-speech (TTS), and spoken question answering (SQA) tasks.

Deep Ensembles (DE) are a prominent approach for achieving excellent performance on key metrics such as accuracy, calibration, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection. However, hardware limitations of real-world systems constrain to smaller ensembles and lower-capacity networks, significantly deteriorating their performance and properties. We introduce Packed-Ensembles (PE), a strategy to design and train lightweight structured ensembles by carefully modulating the dimension of their encoding space. We leverage grouped convolutions to parallelize the ensemble into a single shared backbone and forward pass to improve training and inference speeds. PE is designed to operate within the memory limits of a standard neural network. Our extensive research indicates that PE accurately preserves the properties of DE, such as diversity, and performs equally well in terms of accuracy, calibration, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to distribution shift. We make our code available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. However, single-shot inference often yields unreliable results for complex reasoning tasks, leading researchers to explore multiple reasoning paths through methods such as perplexity and self-consistency. In this paper, we present the first theoretical error decomposition analysis of these techniques, breaking down their error into estimation error and model error. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off: perplexity methods suffer from substantial model error due to the absence of a proper consistency function, while self-consistency exhibits high estimation error due to a slow error convergence rate. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reasoning-Pruning Perplexity Consistency (RPC). This approach combines Perplexity Consistency, which seamlessly integrates LLM perplexity with self-consistency, and Reasoning Pruning, which eliminates low-probability reasoning paths to effectively prevent the degeneration of estimation error reduction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RPC not only accelerates the convergence rate of estimation error to an exponential level but also holds strong potential for further reducing model error. Extensive empirical evaluations on seven benchmark datasets confirm that RPC can significantly improve reasoning performance, sample efficiency, and confidence reliability.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

The simultaneous rise of machine learning as a service and concerns over user privacy have increasingly motivated the need for private inference (PI). While recent work demonstrates PI is possible using cryptographic primitives, the computational overheads render it impractical. The community is largely unprepared to address these overheads, as the source of slowdown in PI stems from the ReLU operator whereas optimizations for plaintext inference focus on optimizing FLOPs. In this paper we re-think the ReLU computation and propose optimizations for PI tailored to properties of neural networks. Specifically, we reformulate ReLU as an approximate sign test and introduce a novel truncation method for the sign test that significantly reduces the cost per ReLU. These optimizations result in a specific type of stochastic ReLU. The key observation is that the stochastic fault behavior is well suited for the fault-tolerant properties of neural network inference. Thus, we provide significant savings without impacting accuracy. We collectively call the optimizations Circa and demonstrate improvements of up to 4.7x storage and 3x runtime over baseline implementations; we further show that Circa can be used on top of recent PI optimizations to obtain 1.8x additional speedup.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

The recent surge of open-source large language models (LLMs) enables developers to create AI-based solutions while maintaining control over aspects such as privacy and compliance, thereby providing governance and ownership of the model deployment process. To utilize these LLMs, inference engines are needed. These engines load the model's weights onto available resources, such as GPUs, and process queries to generate responses. The speed of inference, or performance, of the LLM, is critical for real-time applications, as it computes millions or billions of floating point operations per inference. Recently, advanced inference engines such as vLLM have emerged, incorporating novel mechanisms such as efficient memory management to achieve state-of-the-art performance. In this paper, we analyze the performance, particularly the throughput (tokens generated per unit of time), of 20 LLMs using two inference libraries: vLLM and HuggingFace's pipelines. We investigate how various hyperparameters, which developers must configure, influence inference performance. Our results reveal that throughput landscapes are irregular, with distinct peaks, highlighting the importance of hyperparameter optimization to achieve maximum performance. We also show that applying hyperparameter optimization when upgrading or downgrading the GPU model used for inference can improve throughput from HuggingFace pipelines by an average of 9.16% and 13.7%, respectively.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Distribution inference, sometimes called property inference, infers statistical properties about a training set from access to a model trained on that data. Distribution inference attacks can pose serious risks when models are trained on private data, but are difficult to distinguish from the intrinsic purpose of statistical machine learning -- namely, to produce models that capture statistical properties about a distribution. Motivated by Yeom et al.'s membership inference framework, we propose a formal definition of distribution inference attacks that is general enough to describe a broad class of attacks distinguishing between possible training distributions. We show how our definition captures previous ratio-based property inference attacks as well as new kinds of attack including revealing the average node degree or clustering coefficient of a training graph. To understand distribution inference risks, we introduce a metric that quantifies observed leakage by relating it to the leakage that would occur if samples from the training distribution were provided directly to the adversary. We report on a series of experiments across a range of different distributions using both novel black-box attacks and improved versions of the state-of-the-art white-box attacks. Our results show that inexpensive attacks are often as effective as expensive meta-classifier attacks, and that there are surprising asymmetries in the effectiveness of attacks. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/FormEstDistRisks

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

As industrial applications are increasingly automated by machine learning models, enforcing personal data ownership and intellectual property rights requires tracing training data back to their rightful owners. Membership inference algorithms approach this problem by using statistical techniques to discern whether a target sample was included in a model's training set. However, existing methods only utilize the unaltered target sample or simple augmentations of the target to compute statistics. Such a sparse sampling of the model's behavior carries little information, leading to poor inference capabilities. In this work, we use adversarial tools to directly optimize for queries that are discriminative and diverse. Our improvements achieve significantly more accurate membership inference than existing methods, especially in offline scenarios and in the low false-positive regime which is critical in legal settings. Code is available at https://github.com/YuxinWenRick/canary-in-a-coalmine.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence. To address these limitations, we introduce RPC, a hybrid method that leverages our theoretical insights through two key components: Perplexity Consistency and Reasoning Pruning. Perplexity Consistency combines the strengths of self-consistency and perplexity, boosting the convergence rate of estimation error from linear to exponential while preserving model error. Reasoning Pruning prevents degradation by eliminating low-probability reasoning paths. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that RPC has a strong potential for reducing reasoning error. Notably, RPC achieves reasoning performance comparable to self-consistency while not only enhancing confidence reliability but also reducing sampling costs by 50%. The code and resources are available at https://wnjxyk.github.io/RPC.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful alternative to parameter scaling for improving language model performance on complex reasoning tasks. While existing methods have shown strong performance gains under fixed compute budgets, there has been little focus on optimally utilizing that budget during inference. In this work, we introduce A*-decoding, a search-based inference-time strategy that builds on the A* search algorithm to optimally utilize a fixed compute budget by prioritizing high-quality reasoning paths during generation. We frame language model decoding as a structured search in a state space of partial solutions, applying the A* transition model to identify promising continuations guided by an external process supervision signal. In our experiments, A*-decoding reaches the performance levels of strong inference scaling baselines like best-of-N and particle filtering while using up to 3x fewer tokens and 30% fewer PRM passes under equivalent compute budgets. On the MATH500 and AIME 2024 benchmarks, A*-decoding enables Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct to match the performance of the 70x larger Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct, and allows Qwen3-1.7B to reach o1-like reasoning accuracy. These results highlight the power of structured search in decoding, offering an alternative to brute-force sampling or scale-driven gains. Our work demonstrates how thoughtful inference-time strategies can enhance reasoning in SLMs, pointing toward future advances in more efficient and scalable language model deployment.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

We present a novel inference scheme, self-speculative decoding, for accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs) without the need for an auxiliary model. This approach is characterized by a two-stage process: drafting and verification. The drafting stage generates draft tokens at a slightly lower quality but more quickly, which is achieved by selectively skipping certain intermediate layers during drafting Subsequently, the verification stage employs the original LLM to validate those draft output tokens in one forward pass. This process ensures the final output remains identical to that produced by the unaltered LLM, thereby maintaining output quality. The proposed method requires no additional neural network training and no extra memory footprint, making it a plug-and-play and cost-effective solution for inference acceleration. Benchmarks with LLaMA-2 and its fine-tuned models demonstrated a speedup up to 1.73times.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of AI, demonstrating unprecedented capacity across various tasks. However, the inference process for LLMs comes with significant computational costs. In this paper, we propose an efficient LLM inference pipeline that harnesses the power of LLMs. Our approach begins by tapping into the potential of LLMs to accurately perceive and predict the response length with minimal overhead. By leveraging this information, we introduce an efficient sequence scheduling technique that groups queries with similar response lengths into micro-batches. We evaluate our approach on real-world instruction datasets using the LLaMA-based model, and our results demonstrate an impressive 86% improvement in inference throughput without compromising effectiveness. Notably, our method is orthogonal to other inference acceleration techniques, making it a valuable addition to many existing toolkits (e.g., FlashAttention, Quantization) for LLM inference.

We propose a novel speculative decoding method tailored for multi-sample reasoning scenarios, such as self-consistency and Best-of-N sampling. Our method exploits the intrinsic consensus of parallel generation paths to synthesize high-quality draft tokens without requiring auxiliary models or external databases. By dynamically analyzing structural patterns across parallel reasoning paths through a probabilistic aggregation mechanism, it identifies consensus token sequences that align with the decoding distribution. Evaluations on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate a substantial improvement in draft acceptance rates over baselines, while reducing the latency in draft token construction. This work establishes a paradigm shift for efficient multi-sample inference, enabling seamless integration of speculative decoding with sampling-based reasoning techniques.

We introduce a deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks. This yields a sampling-free, single-pass model and loss that effectively improves uncertainty estimation. Our variational Bayesian last layer (VBLL) can be trained and evaluated with only quadratic complexity in last layer width, and is thus (nearly) computationally free to add to standard architectures. We experimentally investigate VBLLs, and show that they improve predictive accuracy, calibration, and out of distribution detection over baselines across both regression and classification. Finally, we investigate combining VBLL layers with variational Bayesian feature learning, yielding a lower variance collapsed variational inference method for Bayesian neural networks.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in code generation. However, the effects of hallucinations (e.g., output noise) make it particularly challenging for LLMs to generate high-quality code in one pass. In this work, we propose a simple and effective uncertainty-aware selective contrastive decoding (USCD) mechanism to improve the quality of one-pass code generation in LLMs and reduce the impact of output noise. To be specific, we first elaborately designed a negative prompt (namely lame prompt) to output noise by removing input-output examples from the standard few-shot prompt. Our preliminary study shows that the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JS divergence) between token distribution uncertainty and the output noise is relatively low (approximately 0.25), indicating their high relevance. Then, we selectively eliminate output noise induced by lame prompts based on the uncertainty of the prediction distribution from the standard prompt. Notably, our proposed plug-and-play mechanism is an inference-only method, enjoying appealing flexibility. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks, e.g., HumanEval, MBPP, and MultiPL-E, upon several LLMs (i.e., Inocder-6b, CodeLlama-7b, WizardCoder-15b, StarCoder, and Llama2-7b), demonstrate that our proposed USCD significantly improves one-pass code generation, with an average pass@1 scores increase of 16.59\%. We will release code and data on GitHub.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Large language models (LLMs) suffer from high inference latency due to the auto-regressive decoding process. Speculative decoding accelerates inference by generating multiple draft tokens using a lightweight model and verifying them in parallel. However, existing verification methods rely heavily on distributional consistency while overlooking semantic correctness, thereby limiting the potential speedup of speculative decoding. While some methods employ additional models for relaxed verification of draft tokens, they often fail to generalize effectively to more diverse or open-domain settings. In this work, we propose Reflective Verification, a training-free and semantics-aware approach that achieves a better trade-off between correctness and efficiency. Specifically, we leverage the inherent reflective capacity of LLMs to semantically assess the correctness of draft tokens in parallel during verification. Using prompt-based probing, we obtain both the original and reflective distributions of draft tokens in a single forward pass. The fusion of these distributions enables semantic-level verification of draft tokens that incorporates both consistency and correctness. Experiments across multiple domain benchmarks and model scales demonstrate that our method significantly increases the acceptance length of draft tokens without compromising model performance. Furthermore, we find that the proposed Reflective Verification is orthogonal to existing statistical verification methods, and their combination yields additional 5sim15\% improvements in decoding speed.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries - including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment - correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.

As large language models gain widespread adoption, running them efficiently becomes crucial. Recent works on LLM inference use speculative decoding to achieve extreme speedups. However, most of these works implicitly design their algorithms for high-end datacenter hardware. In this work, we ask the opposite question: how fast can we run LLMs on consumer machines? Consumer GPUs can no longer fit the largest available models (50B+ parameters) and must offload them to RAM or SSD. When running with offloaded parameters, the inference engine can process batches of hundreds or thousands of tokens at the same time as just one token, making it a natural fit for speculative decoding. We propose SpecExec (Speculative Execution), a simple parallel decoding method that can generate up to 20 tokens per target model iteration for popular LLM families. It utilizes the high spikiness of the token probabilities distribution in modern LLMs and a high degree of alignment between model output probabilities. SpecExec takes the most probable tokens continuation from the draft model to build a "cache" tree for the target model, which then gets validated in a single pass. Using SpecExec, we demonstrate inference of 50B+ parameter LLMs on consumer GPUs with RAM offloading at 4-6 tokens per second with 4-bit quantization or 2-3 tokens per second with 16-bit weights.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance on reasoning-intensive tasks, yet optimizing their reasoning efficiency remains an open challenge. While Test-Time Scaling (TTS) improves reasoning quality, it often leads to overthinking, wasting tokens on redundant computations. This work investigates how to efficiently and adaptively guide LLM test-time scaling without additional training. Inspired by the concept of momentum in physics, we propose Momentum Uncertainty-guided Reasoning (MUR), which dynamically allocates thinking budgets to critical reasoning steps by tracking and aggregating stepwise uncertainty over time. To support flexible inference-time control, we introduce gamma-control, a simple mechanism that tunes the reasoning budget via a single hyperparameter. We provide in-depth theoretical proof to support the superiority of MUR in terms of stability and biases. MUR is comprehensively evaluated against various TTS methods across four challenging benchmarks (MATH-500, AIME24, AIME25, and GPQA-diamond) using different sizes of recent Qwen3 models (1.7B, 4B, and 8B). Results demonstrate that MUR reduces computation by over 50% on average while improving accuracy by 0.62-3.37%.

Accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs) is an important challenge in artificial intelligence. This paper introduces distributed speculative inference (DSI), a novel distributed inference algorithm that is provably faster than speculative inference (SI) [leviathan2023fast, chen2023accelerating, miao2023specinfer] and traditional autoregressive inference (non-SI). Like other SI algorithms, DSI works on frozen LLMs, requiring no training or architectural modifications, and it preserves the target distribution. Prior studies on SI have demonstrated empirical speedups (compared to non-SI) but require a fast and accurate drafter LLM. In practice, off-the-shelf LLMs often do not have matching drafters that are sufficiently fast and accurate. We show a gap: SI gets slower than non-SI when using slower or less accurate drafters. We close this gap by proving that DSI is faster than both SI and non-SI given any drafters. By orchestrating multiple instances of the target and drafters, DSI is not only faster than SI but also supports LLMs that cannot be accelerated with SI. Our simulations show speedups of off-the-shelf LLMs in realistic settings: DSI is 1.29-1.92x faster than SI.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

The growing demand for efficient Large Language Model (LLM) inference requires a holistic optimization on algorithms, systems, and hardware. However, very few works have fundamentally changed the generation pattern: each token needs one forward pass and one KV cache. This can be sub-optimal because we found that LLMs are extremely capable of self-identifying the exact dose of information that a single KV cache can store, and many tokens can be generated confidently without global context. Based on this insight, we introduce HAMburger, a Hierarchically Auto-regressive Model that redefines resource allocation in LLMs by moving beyond uniform computation and storage per token during inference. Stacking a compositional embedder and a micro-step decoder in between a base LLM, HAMburger smashes multiple tokens into a single KV and generates several tokens per step. Additionally, HAMburger functions as a speculative decoding framework where it can blindly trust self-drafted tokens. As a result, HAMburger shifts the growth of KV cache and forward FLOPs from linear to sub-linear with respect to output length, and adjusts its inference speed based on query perplexity and output structure. Extensive evaluations show that HAMburger reduces the KV cache computation by up to 2times and achieves up to 2times TPS, while maintaining quality in both short- and long-context tasks. Our method explores an extremely challenging inference regime that requires both computation- and memory-efficiency with a hardware-agnostic design.

Recent studies on inverse problems have proposed posterior samplers that leverage the pre-trained diffusion models as powerful priors. These attempts have paved the way for using diffusion models in a wide range of inverse problems. However, the existing methods entail computationally demanding iterative sampling procedures and optimize a separate solution for each measurement, which leads to limited scalability and lack of generalization capability across unseen samples. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, Diffusion prior-based Amortized Variational Inference (DAVI) that solves inverse problems with a diffusion prior from an amortized variational inference perspective. Specifically, instead of separate measurement-wise optimization, our amortized inference learns a function that directly maps measurements to the implicit posterior distributions of corresponding clean data, enabling a single-step posterior sampling even for unseen measurements. Extensive experiments on image restoration tasks, e.g., Gaussian deblur, 4times super-resolution, and box inpainting with two benchmark datasets, demonstrate our approach's superior performance over strong baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/DAVI.

This paper presents MoE-Gen, a high-throughput MoE inference system optimized for single-GPU execution. Existing inference systems rely on model-based or continuous batching strategies, originally designed for interactive inference, which result in excessively small batches for MoE's key modules-attention and expert modules-leading to poor throughput. To address this, we introduce module-based batching, which accumulates tokens in host memory and dynamically launches large batches on GPUs to maximize utilization. Additionally, we optimize the choice of batch sizes for each module in an MoE to fully overlap GPU computation and communication, maximizing throughput. Evaluation demonstrates that MoE-Gen achieves 8-31x higher throughput compared to state-of-the-art systems employing model-based batching (FlexGen, MoE-Lightning, DeepSpeed), and offers even greater throughput improvements over continuous batching systems (e.g., vLLM and Ollama) on popular MoE models (DeepSeek and Mixtral) across offline inference tasks. MoE-Gen's source code is publicly available at https://github.com/EfficientMoE/MoE-Gen

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently advanced the field of Automated Theorem Proving (ATP), attaining substantial performance gains through widely adopted test-time scaling strategies, notably reflective Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning and increased sampling passes. However, they both introduce significant computational overhead for inference. Moreover, existing cost analyses typically regulate only the number of sampling passes, while neglecting the substantial disparities in sampling costs introduced by different scaling strategies. In this paper, we systematically compare the efficiency of different test-time scaling strategies for ATP models and demonstrate the inefficiency of the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) open-source approaches. We then investigate approaches to significantly reduce token usage and sample passes while maintaining the original performance. Specifically, we propose two complementary methods that can be integrated into a unified EconRL pipeline for amplified benefits: (1) a dynamic Chain-of-Thought (CoT) switching mechanism designed to mitigate unnecessary token consumption, and (2) Diverse parallel-scaled reinforcement learning (RL) with trainable prefixes to enhance pass rates under constrained sampling passes. Experiments on miniF2F and ProofNet demonstrate that our EconProver achieves comparable performance to baseline methods with only 12% of the computational cost. This work provides actionable insights for deploying lightweight ATP models without sacrificing performance.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

Although Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have achieved impressive results, their high computational cost poses a significant barrier to wider application. To enhance inference efficiency, most existing approaches depend on parameter-dependent or token-dependent strategies to reduce computational demands. However, these methods typically require complex training processes and struggle to consistently select the most relevant tokens. In this paper, we systematically analyze the above challenges and provide a series of valuable insights for inference acceleration. Based on these findings, we propose a novel framework, the Pruning All-Rounder (PAR). Different from previous works, PAR develops a meta-router to adaptively organize pruning flows across both tokens and layers. With a self-supervised learning manner, our method achieves a superior balance between performance and efficiency. Notably, PAR is highly flexible, offering multiple pruning versions to address a range of pruning scenarios. The code for this work will be made publicly available.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these deterministic uncertainty methods (DUMs) achieve strong performance on detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data while adding negligible computational costs at inference time. However, it remains unclear whether DUMs are well calibrated and can seamlessly scale to real-world applications - both prerequisites for their practical deployment. To this end, we first provide a taxonomy of DUMs, and evaluate their calibration under continuous distributional shifts. Then, we extend them to semantic segmentation. We find that, while DUMs scale to realistic vision tasks and perform well on OOD detection, the practicality of current methods is undermined by poor calibration under distributional shifts.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Recently, Zaremba et al. demonstrated that increasing inference-time computation improves robustness in large proprietary reasoning LLMs. In this paper, we first show that smaller-scale, open-source models (e.g., DeepSeek R1, Qwen3, Phi-reasoning) can also benefit from inference-time scaling using a simple budget forcing strategy. More importantly, we reveal and critically examine an implicit assumption in prior work: intermediate reasoning steps are hidden from adversaries. By relaxing this assumption, we identify an important security risk, intuitively motivated and empirically verified as an inverse scaling law: if intermediate reasoning steps become explicitly accessible, increased inference-time computation consistently reduces model robustness. Finally, we discuss practical scenarios where models with hidden reasoning chains are still vulnerable to attacks, such as models with tool-integrated reasoning and advanced reasoning extraction attacks. Our findings collectively demonstrate that the robustness benefits of inference-time scaling depend heavily on the adversarial setting and deployment context. We urge practitioners to carefully weigh these subtle trade-offs before applying inference-time scaling in security-sensitive, real-world applications.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

We conduct experiments on the impact of increasing inference-time compute in reasoning models (specifically OpenAI o1-preview and o1-mini) on their robustness to adversarial attacks. We find that across a variety of attacks, increased inference-time compute leads to improved robustness. In many cases (with important exceptions), the fraction of model samples where the attack succeeds tends to zero as the amount of test-time compute grows. We perform no adversarial training for the tasks we study, and we increase inference-time compute by simply allowing the models to spend more compute on reasoning, independently of the form of attack. Our results suggest that inference-time compute has the potential to improve adversarial robustness for Large Language Models. We also explore new attacks directed at reasoning models, as well as settings where inference-time compute does not improve reliability, and speculate on the reasons for these as well as ways to address them.

Diffusion-based Large Language Models (dLLMs) have emerged as a competitive alternative to autoregressive models, offering unique advantages through bidirectional attention and parallel generation paradigms. However, the generation results of current parallel decoding methods deviate from stepwise decoding, introducing potential performance degradation, which limits their practical deployment. To address this problem, we propose Self Speculative Decoding (SSD), a lossless inference acceleration method that leverages the dLLM itself as both speculative decoding drafter and verifier without auxiliary modules. SSD introduces a self-drafting mechanism where the model generates predictions for multiple positions, then verifies them through hierarchical verification trees in a single forward pass. Unlike traditional speculative decoding that requires separate draft models, SSD eliminates model redundancy and memory overhead by exploiting the dLLM's inherent parallel prediction capability for multiple positions. This self-speculative approach allows the model to progressively verify and accept multiple tokens in a single forward pass. Our experiments demonstrate that SSD achieves up to 3.46times speedup while keeping the output identical to stepwise decoding on open source models such as LLaDA and Dream. Code will be made publicly available on GitHub.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

Leveraging recent advancements in large language models, modern neural code completion models have demonstrated the capability to generate highly accurate code suggestions. However, their massive size poses challenges in terms of computational costs and environmental impact, hindering their widespread adoption in practical scenarios. Dynamic inference emerges as a promising solution, as it allocates minimal computation during inference while maintaining the model's performance. In this research, we explore dynamic inference within the context of code completion. Initially, we conducted an empirical investigation on GPT-2, focusing on the inference capabilities of intermediate layers for code completion. We found that 54.4% of tokens can be accurately generated using just the first layer, signifying significant computational savings potential. Moreover, despite using all layers, the model still fails to predict 14.5% of tokens correctly, and the subsequent completions continued from them are rarely considered helpful, with only a 4.2% Acceptance Rate. These findings motivate our exploration of dynamic inference in code completion and inspire us to enhance it with a decision-making mechanism that stops the generation of incorrect code. We thus propose a novel dynamic inference method specifically tailored for code completion models. This method aims not only to produce correct predictions with largely reduced computation but also to prevent incorrect predictions proactively. Our extensive evaluation shows that it can averagely skip 1.7 layers out of 16 layers in the models, leading to an 11.2% speedup with only a marginal 1.1% reduction in ROUGE-L.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

Long-context inference for Large Language Models (LLMs) is heavily limited by high computational demands. While several existing methods optimize attention computation, they still process the full set of hidden states at each layer, limiting overall efficiency. In this work, we propose SlimInfer, an innovative framework that aims to accelerate inference by directly pruning less critical prompt tokens during the forward pass. Our key insight is an information diffusion phenomenon: As information from critical tokens propagates through layers, it becomes distributed across the entire sequence. This diffusion process suggests that LLMs can maintain their semantic integrity when excessive tokens, even including these critical ones, are pruned in hidden states. Motivated by this, SlimInfer introduces a dynamic fine-grained pruning mechanism that accurately removes redundant tokens of hidden state at intermediate layers. This layer-wise pruning naturally enables an asynchronous KV cache manager that prefetches required token blocks without complex predictors, reducing both memory usage and I/O costs. Extensive experiments show that SlimInfer can achieve up to 2.53times time-to-first-token (TTFT) speedup and 1.88times end-to-end latency reduction for LLaMA3.1-8B-Instruct on a single RTX 4090, without sacrificing performance on LongBench. Our code will be released upon acceptance.

Large language models (LLMs) are widely applied in chatbots, code generators, and search engines. Workloads such as chain-of-thought, complex reasoning, and agent services significantly increase the inference cost by invoking the model repeatedly. Optimization methods such as parallelism, compression, and caching have been adopted to reduce costs, but the diverse service requirements make it hard to select the right method. Recently, specialized LLM inference engines have emerged as a key component for integrating the optimization methods into service-oriented infrastructures. However, a systematic study on inference engines is still lacking. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of 25 open-source and commercial inference engines. We examine each inference engine in terms of ease-of-use, ease-of-deployment, general-purpose support, scalability, and suitability for throughput- and latency-aware computation. Furthermore, we explore the design goals of each inference engine by investigating the optimization techniques it supports. In addition, we assess the ecosystem maturity of open source inference engines and handle the performance and cost policy of commercial solutions. We outline future research directions that include support for complex LLM-based services, support of various hardware, and enhanced security, offering practical guidance to researchers and developers in selecting and designing optimized LLM inference engines. We also provide a public repository to continually track developments in this fast-evolving field: https://github.com/sihyeong/Awesome-LLM-Inference-Engine

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be {it misaligned} with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy {it decreases} with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

We revisit Wald's celebrated Sequential Probability Ratio Test for sequential tests of two simple hypotheses, under privacy constraints. We propose DP-SPRT, a wrapper that can be calibrated to achieve desired error probabilities and privacy constraints, addressing a significant gap in previous work. DP-SPRT relies on a private mechanism that processes a sequence of queries and stops after privately determining when the query results fall outside a predefined interval. This OutsideInterval mechanism improves upon naive composition of existing techniques like AboveThreshold, potentially benefiting other sequential algorithms. We prove generic upper bounds on the error and sample complexity of DP-SPRT that can accommodate various noise distributions based on the practitioner's privacy needs. We exemplify them in two settings: Laplace noise (pure Differential Privacy) and Gaussian noise (R\'enyi differential privacy). In the former setting, by providing a lower bound on the sample complexity of any epsilon-DP test with prescribed type I and type II errors, we show that DP-SPRT is near optimal when both errors are small and the two hypotheses are close. Moreover, we conduct an experimental study revealing its good practical performance.

Recent studies have indicated that effectively utilizing inference-time compute is crucial for attaining better performance from large language models (LLMs). In this work, we propose a novel inference-aware fine-tuning paradigm, in which the model is fine-tuned in a manner that directly optimizes the performance of the inference-time strategy. We study this paradigm using the simple yet effective Best-of-N (BoN) inference strategy, in which a verifier selects the best out of a set of LLM-generated responses. We devise the first imitation learning and reinforcement learning~(RL) methods for BoN-aware fine-tuning, overcoming the challenging, non-differentiable argmax operator within BoN. We empirically demonstrate that our BoN-aware models implicitly learn a meta-strategy that interleaves best responses with more diverse responses that might be better suited to a test-time input -- a process reminiscent of the exploration-exploitation trade-off in RL. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of BoN-aware fine-tuning in terms of improved performance and inference-time compute. In particular, we show that our methods improve the Bo32 performance of Gemma 2B on Hendrycks MATH from 26.8% to 30.8%, and pass@32 from 60.0% to 67.0%, as well as the pass@16 on HumanEval from 61.6% to 67.1%.

Inference-time computation is a powerful paradigm to enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs), with Best-of-N sampling being a widely used technique. However, this method is computationally expensive, requiring both (1) an external reward model and (2) the generation of multiple samples. In this work, we introduce a new generative self-evaluation scheme designed to adaptively reduce the number of generated samples while maintaining or even improving performance. We use a generative reward model formulation, allowing the LLM to predict mid-generation the probability that restarting the generation will yield a better response. These predictions are obtained without an external reward model and can be used to decide whether or not to generate more samples, prune unpromising samples early on, or to pick the best sample. This capability is very inexpensive as it involves generating a single predefined token. Trained using a dataset constructed with real unfiltered LMSYS user prompts, Llama 3.1 8B's win rate against GPT-4 on AlpacaEval increases from 21% to 34% with 16 samples and math performance on GSM8K improves from 84% to 91%. By sampling only when the LLM determines that it is beneficial to do so and adaptively adjusting temperature annealing, we demonstrate that 74% of the improvement from using 16 samples can be achieved with only 1.2 samples on average. We further demonstrate that 50-75% of samples can be pruned early in generation with minimal degradation in performance. Overall, our methods enable more efficient and scalable compute utilization during inference for LLMs.

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they afford in practice. An emerging strand of work empirically estimates the protection afforded by differentially private training as a confidence interval for the privacy budget varepsilon spent on training a model. Existing approaches derive confidence intervals for varepsilon from confidence intervals for the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. Unfortunately, obtaining narrow high-confidence intervals for epsilon using this method requires an impractically large sample size and training as many models as samples. We propose a novel Bayesian method that greatly reduces sample size, and adapt and validate a heuristic to draw more than one sample per trained model. Our Bayesian method exploits the hypothesis testing interpretation of differential privacy to obtain a posterior for varepsilon (not just a confidence interval) from the joint posterior of the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. For the same sample size and confidence, we derive confidence intervals for varepsilon around 40% narrower than prior work. The heuristic, which we adapt from label-only DP, can be used to further reduce the number of trained models needed to get enough samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

Techniques that enhance inference through increased computation at test-time have recently gained attention. In this survey, we investigate the current state of LLM Inference-Time Self-Improvement from three different perspectives: Independent Self-improvement, focusing on enhancements via decoding or sampling methods; Context-Aware Self-Improvement, leveraging additional context or datastore; and Model-Aided Self-Improvement, achieving improvement through model collaboration. We provide a comprehensive review of recent relevant studies, contribute an in-depth taxonomy, and discuss challenges and limitations, offering insights for future research.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPM) have shown remarkable efficacy in the synthesis of high-quality images. However, their inference process characteristically requires numerous, potentially hundreds, of iterative steps, which could exaggerate the problem of exposure bias due to the training and inference discrepancy. Previous work has attempted to mitigate this issue by perturbing inputs during training, which consequently mandates the retraining of the DPM. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of exposure bias in DPM and, intriguingly, we find that the exposure bias could be alleviated with a novel sampling method that we propose, without retraining the model. We empirically and theoretically show that, during inference, for each backward time step t and corresponding state x_t, there might exist another time step t_s which exhibits superior coupling with x_t. Based on this finding, we introduce a sampling method named Time-Shift Sampler. Our framework can be seamlessly integrated to existing sampling algorithms, such as DDPM, DDIM and other high-order solvers, inducing merely minimal additional computations. Experimental results show our method brings significant and consistent improvements in FID scores on different datasets and sampling methods. For example, integrating Time-Shift Sampler to F-PNDM yields a FID=3.88, achieving 44.49\% improvements as compared to F-PNDM, on CIFAR-10 with 10 sampling steps, which is more performant than the vanilla DDIM with 100 sampling steps. Our code is available at https://github.com/Mingxiao-Li/TS-DPM.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. By working through a series of purely mental steps, we can make inferences we would not be capable of making directly -- despite the fact that we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate a series of intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they otherwise would. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences in order to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables improves inference, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis empirically in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables and that the combination of locally-structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

The new paradigm of test-time scaling has yielded remarkable breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs) (e.g. reasoning models) and in generative vision models, allowing models to allocate additional computation during inference to effectively tackle increasingly complex problems. Despite the improvements of this approach, an important limitation emerges: the substantial increase in computation time makes the process slow and impractical for many applications. Given the success of this paradigm and its growing usage, we seek to preserve its benefits while eschewing the inference overhead. In this work we propose one solution to the critical problem of integrating test-time scaling knowledge into a model during post-training. Specifically, we replace reward guided test-time noise optimization in diffusion models with a Noise Hypernetwork that modulates initial input noise. We propose a theoretically grounded framework for learning this reward-tilted distribution for distilled generators, through a tractable noise-space objective that maintains fidelity to the base model while optimizing for desired characteristics. We show that our approach recovers a substantial portion of the quality gains from explicit test-time optimization at a fraction of the computational cost. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/HyperNoise

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated the ability to tackle increasingly complex tasks through advanced reasoning, long-form content generation, and tool use. Solving these tasks often involves long inference-time computations. In human problem solving, a common strategy to expedite work is collaboration: by dividing the problem into sub-tasks, exploring different strategies concurrently, etc. Recent research has shown that LLMs can also operate in parallel by implementing explicit cooperation frameworks, such as voting mechanisms or the explicit creation of independent sub-tasks that can be executed in parallel. However, each of these frameworks may not be suitable for all types of tasks, which can hinder their applicability. In this work, we propose a different design approach: we run LLM "workers" in parallel , allowing them to synchronize via a concurrently-updated attention cache and prompt these workers to decide how best to collaborate. Our approach allows the instances to come up with their own collaboration strategy for the problem at hand, all the while "seeing" each other's partial progress in the concurrent cache. We implement this approach via Hogwild! Inference: a parallel LLM inference engine where multiple instances of the same LLM run in parallel with the same attention cache, with "instant" access to each other's generated tokens. Hogwild! inference takes advantage of Rotary Position Embeddings (RoPE) to avoid recomputation while improving parallel hardware utilization. We find that modern reasoning-capable LLMs can perform inference with shared Key-Value cache out of the box, without additional fine-tuning.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Test-time scaling (TTS), which involves dynamic allocation of compute during inference, offers a promising way to improve reasoning in large language models. While existing TTS methods work well, they often rely on long decoding paths or require a large number of samples to be generated, increasing the token usage and inference latency. We observe the surprising fact that for reasoning tasks, shorter traces are much more likely to be correct than longer ones. Motivated by this, we introduce First Finish Search (FFS), a training-free parallel decoding strategy that launches n independent samples and returns as soon as any one completes. We evaluate FFS alongside simple decoding, beam search, majority voting, and budget forcing on four reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, QwQ-32B and Phi-4-Reasoning-Plus) and across four datasets (AIME24, AIME25-I, AIME25-II and GPQA Diamond). With DeepSeek-R1, FFS achieves 82.23% accuracy on the AIME datasets, a 15% improvement over DeepSeek-R1's standalone accuracy, nearly matching OpenAI's o4-mini performance. Our theoretical analysis explains why stopping at the shortest trace is likely to yield a correct answer and identifies the conditions under which early stopping may be suboptimal. The elegance and simplicity of FFS demonstrate that straightforward TTS strategies can perform remarkably well, revealing the untapped potential of simple approaches at inference time.

We approach designing a state-space model for deep learning applications through its dual representation, the transfer function, and uncover a highly efficient sequence parallel inference algorithm that is state-free: unlike other proposed algorithms, state-free inference does not incur any significant memory or computational cost with an increase in state size. We achieve this using properties of the proposed frequency domain transfer function parametrization, which enables direct computation of its corresponding convolutional kernel's spectrum via a single Fast Fourier Transform. Our experimental results across multiple sequence lengths and state sizes illustrates, on average, a 35% training speed improvement over S4 layers -- parametrized in time-domain -- on the Long Range Arena benchmark, while delivering state-of-the-art downstream performances over other attention-free approaches. Moreover, we report improved perplexity in language modeling over a long convolutional Hyena baseline, by simply introducing our transfer function parametrization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruke1ire/RTF.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

Inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) across computer clusters has become a focal point of research in recent times, with many acceleration techniques taking inspiration from CPU speculative execution. These techniques reduce bottlenecks associated with memory bandwidth, but also increase end-to-end latency per inference run, requiring high speculation acceptance rates to improve performance. Combined with a variable rate of acceptance across tasks, speculative inference techniques can result in reduced performance. Additionally, pipeline-parallel designs require many user requests to maintain maximum utilization. As a remedy, we propose PipeInfer, a pipelined speculative acceleration technique to reduce inter-token latency and improve system utilization for single-request scenarios while also improving tolerance to low speculation acceptance rates and low-bandwidth interconnects. PipeInfer exhibits up to a 2.15times improvement in generation speed over standard speculative inference. PipeInfer achieves its improvement through Continuous Asynchronous Speculation and Early Inference Cancellation, the former improving latency and generation speed by running single-token inference simultaneously with several speculative runs, while the latter improves speed and latency by skipping the computation of invalidated runs, even in the middle of inference.

Parallel LLM inference scaling involves sampling a set of N>1 responses for a single input prompt. However, these N parallel responses tend to be generated independently from each other, partitioning compute resources and leaving potentially useful information in one generation untapped by others. This is in contrast to response length scaling where past computation is used in all future steps. For higher quality responses and response sets, we propose Bridge to generate interdependent responses in parallel by rethinking batched LLM hidden states as holistic tensors rather than independent slices. With only a small amount (2.8%-5.1%) of new parameters, Bridge improves the relative mean accuracy gains from reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards by up to 50% and boosts consistency of correct responses. Trained once, Bridge scales to any generation width, all with greater performance than independent generations, unlocking a more general mode of parallel scaling that effectively leverages information between sequences, compatible with any post-generation aggregation technique.

We examine the reasoning and planning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in solving complex tasks. Recent advances in inference-time techniques demonstrate the potential to enhance LLM reasoning without additional training by exploring intermediate steps during inference. Notably, OpenAI's o1 model shows promising performance through its novel use of multi-step reasoning and verification. Here, we explore how scaling inference-time techniques can improve reasoning and planning, focusing on understanding the tradeoff between computational cost and performance. To this end, we construct a comprehensive benchmark, known as Sys2Bench, and perform extensive experiments evaluating existing inference-time techniques on eleven diverse tasks across five categories, including arithmetic reasoning, logical reasoning, common sense reasoning, algorithmic reasoning, and planning. Our findings indicate that simply scaling inference-time computation has limitations, as no single inference-time technique consistently performs well across all reasoning and planning tasks.

Prior work on Private Inference (PI) -- inferences performed directly on encrypted input -- has focused on minimizing a network's ReLUs, which have been assumed to dominate PI latency rather than FLOPs. Recent work has shown that FLOPs for PI can no longer be ignored and incur high latency penalties. In this paper, we develop DeepReShape, a technique that optimizes neural network architectures under PI's constraints, optimizing for both ReLUs and FLOPs for the first time. The key insight is strategically allocating channels to position the network's ReLUs in order of their criticality to network accuracy, simultaneously optimizes ReLU and FLOPs efficiency. DeepReShape automates network development with an efficient process, and we call generated networks HybReNets. We evaluate DeepReShape using standard PI benchmarks and demonstrate a 2.1% accuracy gain with a 5.2times runtime improvement at iso-ReLU on CIFAR-100 and an 8.7times runtime improvement at iso-accuracy on TinyImageNet. Furthermore, we investigate the significance of network selection in prior ReLU optimizations and shed light on the key network attributes for superior PI performance.

With increasing demands for efficiency, information retrieval has developed a branch of sparse retrieval, further advancing towards inference-free retrieval where the documents are encoded during indexing time and there is no model-inference for queries. Existing sparse retrieval models rely on FLOPS regularization for sparsification, while this mechanism was originally designed for Siamese encoders, it is considered to be suboptimal in inference-free scenarios which is asymmetric. Previous attempts to adapt FLOPS for inference-free scenarios have been limited to rule-based methods, leaving the potential of sparsification approaches for inference-free retrieval models largely unexplored. In this paper, we explore ell_0 inspired sparsification manner for inference-free retrievers. Through comprehensive out-of-domain evaluation on the BEIR benchmark, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance among inference-free sparse retrieval models and is comparable to leading Siamese sparse retrieval models. Furthermore, we provide insights into the trade-off between retrieval effectiveness and computational efficiency, demonstrating practical value for real-world applications.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Simulation-based inference with conditional neural density estimators is a powerful approach to solving inverse problems in science. However, these methods typically treat the underlying forward model as a black box, with no way to exploit geometric properties such as equivariances. Equivariances are common in scientific models, however integrating them directly into expressive inference networks (such as normalizing flows) is not straightforward. We here describe an alternative method to incorporate equivariances under joint transformations of parameters and data. Our method -- called group equivariant neural posterior estimation (GNPE) -- is based on self-consistently standardizing the "pose" of the data while estimating the posterior over parameters. It is architecture-independent, and applies both to exact and approximate equivariances. As a real-world application, we use GNPE for amortized inference of astrophysical binary black hole systems from gravitational-wave observations. We show that GNPE achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing inference times by three orders of magnitude.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

We introduce a variational reasoning framework for language models that treats thinking traces as latent variables and optimizes them through variational inference. Starting from the evidence lower bound (ELBO), we extend it to a multi-trace objective for tighter bounds and propose a forward-KL formulation that stabilizes the training of the variational posterior. We further show that rejection sampling finetuning and binary-reward RL, including GRPO, can be interpreted as local forward-KL objectives, where an implicit weighting by model accuracy naturally arises from the derivation and reveals a previously unnoticed bias toward easier questions. We empirically validate our method on the Qwen 2.5 and Qwen 3 model families across a wide range of reasoning tasks. Overall, our work provides a principled probabilistic perspective that unifies variational inference with RL-style methods and yields stable objectives for improving the reasoning ability of language models. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/variational-reasoning.

Discrete diffusion models have emerged as a powerful generative modeling framework for discrete data with successful applications spanning from text generation to image synthesis. However, their deployment faces challenges due to the high dimensionality of the state space, necessitating the development of efficient inference algorithms. Current inference approaches mainly fall into two categories: exact simulation and approximate methods such as tau-leaping. While exact methods suffer from unpredictable inference time and redundant function evaluations, tau-leaping is limited by its first-order accuracy. In this work, we advance the latter category by tailoring the first extension of high-order numerical inference schemes to discrete diffusion models, enabling larger step sizes while reducing error. We rigorously analyze the proposed schemes and establish the second-order accuracy of the theta-trapezoidal method in KL divergence. Empirical evaluations on GPT-2 level text and ImageNet-level image generation tasks demonstrate that our method achieves superior sample quality compared to existing approaches under equivalent computational constraints.

While inference-time scaling enables LLMs to carry out increasingly long and capable reasoning traces, the patterns and insights uncovered during these traces are immediately discarded once the context window is reset for a new query. External memory is a natural way to persist these discoveries, and recent work has shown clear benefits for reasoning-intensive tasks. We see an opportunity to make such memories more broadly reusable and scalable by moving beyond instance-based memory entries (e.g. exact query/response pairs, or summaries tightly coupled with the original problem context) toward concept-level memory: reusable, modular abstractions distilled from solution traces and stored in natural language. For future queries, relevant concepts are selectively retrieved and integrated into the prompt, enabling test-time continual learning without weight updates. Our design introduces new strategies for abstracting takeaways from rollouts and retrieving entries for new queries, promoting reuse and allowing memory to expand with additional experiences. We evaluate on ARC-AGI, a benchmark that stresses compositional generalization and abstract reasoning, making it a natural fit for concept memory. Our method yields a 7.5% relative gain over a strong no-memory baseline with performance continuing to scale with inference compute. We find abstract concepts to be the most consistent memory design, outscoring the baseline at all tested inference compute scales. Moreover, dynamically updating memory during test-time outperforms fixed settings, supporting the hypothesis that accumulating and abstracting patterns enables further solutions in a form of self-improvement. Code is available at https://github.com/matt-seb-ho/arc_memo.

Recent years have seen significant advancements in foundation models through generative pre-training, yet algorithmic innovation in this space has largely stagnated around autoregressive models for discrete signals and diffusion models for continuous signals. This stagnation creates a bottleneck that prevents us from fully unlocking the potential of rich multi-modal data, which in turn limits the progress on multimodal intelligence. We argue that an inference-first perspective, which prioritizes scaling efficiency during inference time across sequence length and refinement steps, can inspire novel generative pre-training algorithms. Using Inductive Moment Matching (IMM) as a concrete example, we demonstrate how addressing limitations in diffusion models' inference process through targeted modifications yields a stable, single-stage algorithm that achieves superior sample quality with over an order of magnitude greater inference efficiency.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shifted focus toward scaling inference-time compute, improving performance without retraining the model. A common approach is to sample multiple outputs in parallel, and select one of these as the final output. However, work to date has focused on English and a handful of domains such as math and code. In contrast, we are most interested in techniques that generalize across open-ended tasks, formally verifiable tasks, and across languages. In this work, we study how to robustly scale inference-time compute for open-ended generative tasks in a multilingual, multi-task setting. Our findings show that both sampling strategy based on temperature variation and selection strategy must be adapted to account for diverse domains and varied language settings. We evaluate existing selection methods, revealing that strategies effective in English often fail to generalize across languages. We propose novel sampling and selection strategies specifically adapted for multilingual and multi-task inference scenarios, and show they yield notable gains across languages and tasks. In particular, our combined sampling and selection methods lead to an average +6.8 jump in win-rates for our 8B models on m-ArenaHard-v2.0 prompts, against proprietary models such as Gemini. At larger scale, Command-A (111B model) equipped with our methods, shows +9.0 improvement in win-rates on the same benchmark with just five samples against single-sample decoding, a substantial increase at minimal cost. Our results underscore the need for language- and task-aware approaches to inference-time compute, aiming to democratize performance improvements in underrepresented languages.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

Despite their remarkable success in complex tasks propelling widespread adoption, large language-model-based agents still face critical deployment challenges due to prohibitive latency and inference costs. While recent work has explored various methods to accelerate inference, existing approaches suffer from significant limitations: they either fail to preserve performance fidelity, require extensive offline training of router modules, or incur excessive operational costs. Moreover, they provide minimal user control over the tradeoff between acceleration and other performance metrics. To address these gaps, we introduce Dynamic Speculative Planning (DSP), an asynchronous online reinforcement learning framework that provides lossless acceleration with substantially reduced costs without requiring additional pre-deployment preparation. DSP explicitly optimizes a joint objective balancing end-to-end latency against dollar cost, allowing practitioners to adjust a single parameter that steers the system toward faster responses, cheaper operation, or any point along this continuum. Experiments on two standard agent benchmarks demonstrate that DSP achieves comparable efficiency to the fastest lossless acceleration method while reducing total cost by 30% and unnecessary cost up to 60%. Our code and data are available through https://github.com/guanyilin428/Dynamic-Speculative-Planning.

We propose a general framework for conditional sampling in PDE-based inverse problems, targeting the recovery of whole solutions from extremely sparse or noisy measurements. This is accomplished by a function-space diffusion model and plug-and-play guidance for conditioning. Our method first trains an unconditional discretization-agnostic denoising model using neural operator architectures. At inference, we refine the samples to satisfy sparse observation data via a gradient-based guidance mechanism. Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we extend Tweedie's formula to infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces, providing the theoretical foundation for our posterior sampling approach. Our method (FunDPS) accurately captures posterior distributions in function spaces under minimal supervision and severe data scarcity. Across five PDE tasks with only 3% observation, our method achieves an average 32% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art fixed-resolution diffusion baselines while reducing sampling steps by 4x. Furthermore, multi-resolution fine-tuning ensures strong cross-resolution generalizability. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first diffusion-based framework to operate independently of discretization, offering a practical and flexible solution for forward and inverse problems in the context of PDEs. Code is available at https://github.com/neuraloperator/FunDPS

Priors are essential for reconstructing images from noisy and/or incomplete measurements. The choice of the prior determines both the quality and uncertainty of recovered images. We propose turning score-based diffusion models into principled image priors ("score-based priors") for analyzing a posterior of images given measurements. Previously, probabilistic priors were limited to handcrafted regularizers and simple distributions. In this work, we empirically validate the theoretically-proven probability function of a score-based diffusion model. We show how to sample from resulting posteriors by using this probability function for variational inference. Our results, including experiments on denoising, deblurring, and interferometric imaging, suggest that score-based priors enable principled inference with a sophisticated, data-driven image prior.

Diffusion models (DMs) excel in image generation, but suffer from slow inference and the training-inference discrepancies. Although gradient-based solvers like DPM-Solver accelerate the denoising inference, they lack theoretical foundations in information transmission efficiency. In this work, we introduce an information-theoretic perspective on the inference processes of DMs, revealing that successful denoising fundamentally reduces conditional entropy in reverse transitions. This principle leads to our key insights into the inference processes: (1) data prediction parameterization outperforms its noise counterpart, and (2) optimizing conditional variance offers a reference-free way to minimize both transition and reconstruction errors. Based on these insights, we propose an entropy-aware variance optimized method for the generative process of DMs, called EVODiff, which systematically reduces uncertainty by optimizing conditional entropy during denoising. Extensive experiments on DMs validate our insights and demonstrate that our method significantly and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) gradient-based solvers. For example, compared to the DPM-Solver++, EVODiff reduces the reconstruction error by up to 45.5\% (FID improves from 5.10 to 2.78) at 10 function evaluations (NFE) on CIFAR-10, cuts the NFE cost by 25\% (from 20 to 15 NFE) for high-quality samples on ImageNet-256, and improves text-to-image generation while reducing artifacts. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiguiLi/EVODiff.

With few exceptions, neural networks have been relying on backpropagation and gradient descent as the inference engine in order to learn the model parameters, because the closed-form Bayesian inference for neural networks has been considered to be intractable. In this paper, we show how we can leverage the tractable approximate Gaussian inference's (TAGI) capabilities to infer hidden states, rather than only using it for inferring the network's parameters. One novel aspect it allows is to infer hidden states through the imposition of constraints designed to achieve specific objectives, as illustrated through three examples: (1) the generation of adversarial-attack examples, (2) the usage of a neural network as a black-box optimization method, and (3) the application of inference on continuous-action reinforcement learning. These applications showcase how tasks that were previously reserved to gradient-based optimization approaches can now be approached with analytically tractable inference

We propose an evolution strategies-based algorithm for estimating gradients in unrolled computation graphs, called ES-Single. Similarly to the recently-proposed Persistent Evolution Strategies (PES), ES-Single is unbiased, and overcomes chaos arising from recursive function applications by smoothing the meta-loss landscape. ES-Single samples a single perturbation per particle, that is kept fixed over the course of an inner problem (e.g., perturbations are not re-sampled for each partial unroll). Compared to PES, ES-Single is simpler to implement and has lower variance: the variance of ES-Single is constant with respect to the number of truncated unrolls, removing a key barrier in applying ES to long inner problems using short truncations. We show that ES-Single is unbiased for quadratic inner problems, and demonstrate empirically that its variance can be substantially lower than that of PES. ES-Single consistently outperforms PES on a variety of tasks, including a synthetic benchmark task, hyperparameter optimization, training recurrent neural networks, and training learned optimizers.

The optimal training configurations of large language models (LLMs) with respect to model sizes and compute budgets have been extensively studied. But how to optimally configure LLMs during inference has not been explored in sufficient depth. We study compute-optimal inference: designing models and inference strategies that optimally trade off additional inference-time compute for improved performance. As a first step towards understanding and designing compute-optimal inference methods, we assessed the effectiveness and computational efficiency of multiple inference strategies such as Greedy Search, Majority Voting, Best-of-N, Weighted Voting, and their variants on two different Tree Search algorithms, involving different model sizes and computational budgets. We found that a smaller language model with a novel tree search algorithm typically achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off. These results highlight the potential benefits of deploying smaller models equipped with more sophisticated decoding algorithms in budget-constrained scenarios, e.g., on end-devices, to enhance problem-solving accuracy. For instance, we show that the Llemma-7B model can achieve competitive accuracy to a Llemma-34B model on MATH500 while using 2times less FLOPs. Our findings could potentially apply to any generation task with a well-defined measure of success.

While AI agents have shown remarkable performance at various tasks, they still struggle with complex multi-modal applications, structured generation and strategic planning. Improvements via standard fine-tuning is often impractical, as solving agentic tasks usually relies on black box API access without control over model parameters. Inference-time methods such as Best-of-N (BON) sampling offer a simple yet effective alternative to improve performance. However, BON lacks iterative feedback integration mechanism. Hence, we propose Iterative Agent Decoding (IAD) which combines iterative refinement with dynamic candidate evaluation and selection guided by a verifier. IAD differs in how feedback is designed and integrated, specifically optimized to extract maximal signal from reward scores. We conduct a detailed comparison of baselines across key metrics on Sketch2Code, Text2SQL, and Webshop where IAD consistently outperforms baselines, achieving 3--6% absolute gains on Sketch2Code and Text2SQL (with and without LLM judges) and 8--10% gains on Webshop across multiple metrics. To better understand the source of IAD's gains, we perform controlled experiments to disentangle the effect of adaptive feedback from stochastic sampling, and find that IAD's improvements are primarily driven by verifier-guided refinement, not merely sampling diversity. We also show that both IAD and BON exhibit inference-time scaling with increased compute when guided by an optimal verifier. Our analysis highlights the critical role of verifier quality in effective inference-time optimization and examines the impact of noisy and sparse rewards on scaling behavior. Together, these findings offer key insights into the trade-offs and principles of effective inference-time optimization.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Diffusion models achieve high-quality sample generation at the cost of a lengthy multistep inference procedure. To overcome this, diffusion distillation techniques produce student generators capable of matching or surpassing the teacher in a single step. However, the student model's inference speed is limited by the size of the teacher architecture, preventing real-time generation for computationally heavy applications. In this work, we introduce Multi-Student Distillation (MSD), a framework to distill a conditional teacher diffusion model into multiple single-step generators. Each student generator is responsible for a subset of the conditioning data, thereby obtaining higher generation quality for the same capacity. MSD trains multiple distilled students, allowing smaller sizes and, therefore, faster inference. Also, MSD offers a lightweight quality boost over single-student distillation with the same architecture. We demonstrate MSD is effective by training multiple same-sized or smaller students on single-step distillation using distribution matching and adversarial distillation techniques. With smaller students, MSD gets competitive results with faster inference for single-step generation. Using 4 same-sized students, MSD significantly outperforms single-student baseline counterparts and achieves remarkable FID scores for one-step image generation: 1.20 on ImageNet-64x64 and 8.20 on zero-shot COCO2014.

Online inference is becoming a key service product for many businesses, deployed in cloud platforms to meet customer demands. Despite their revenue-generation capability, these services need to operate under tight Quality-of-Service (QoS) and cost budget constraints. This paper introduces KAIROS, a novel runtime framework that maximizes the query throughput while meeting QoS target and a cost budget. KAIROS designs and implements novel techniques to build a pool of heterogeneous compute hardware without online exploration overhead, and distribute inference queries optimally at runtime. Our evaluation using industry-grade deep learning (DL) models shows that KAIROS yields up to 2X the throughput of an optimal homogeneous solution, and outperforms state-of-the-art schemes by up to 70%, despite advantageous implementations of the competing schemes to ignore their exploration overhead.

In recent years, masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative approach for generative modeling over discrete domains. Compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), MDMs trade off complexity at training time with flexibility at inference time. At training time, they must learn to solve an exponentially large number of infilling problems, but at inference time, they can decode tokens in essentially arbitrary order. In this work, we closely examine these two competing effects. On the training front, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate that MDMs indeed train on computationally intractable subproblems compared to their autoregressive counterparts. On the inference front, we show that a suitable strategy for adaptively choosing the token decoding order significantly enhances the capabilities of MDMs, allowing them to sidestep hard subproblems. On logic puzzles like Sudoku, we show that adaptive inference can boost solving accuracy in pretrained MDMs from <7% to approx 90%, even outperforming ARMs with 7times as many parameters and that were explicitly trained via teacher forcing to learn the right order of decoding.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

In autoregressive language models, each token is sampled by conditioning on all the past tokens; the overall string has thus been sampled from the correct underlying joint distribution represented by the model. In contrast, masked diffusion language models generate text by unmasking tokens out of order and potentially in parallel. Generating an overall string sampled from the correct underlying joint distribution would (again) require exactly one token unmasking in every full-model forward pass. The more tokens unmasked in parallel, the further away the string is from the true joint; this can be seen in the resulting drop in accuracy (but, increase in speed). In this paper we devise a way to {\em approximately} sample multiple tokens from the joint distribution in a single full-model forward pass; we do so by developing a new lightweight single-layer ``sampler" on top of an existing large diffusion LM. One forward pass of the full model can now be followed by multiple forward passes of only this sampler layer, to yield multiple unmasked tokens. Our sampler is trained to mimic exact joint sampling from the (frozen) full model. We show the effectiveness of our approximate joint sampling for both pretrained-only (Dream-7B-Base) and instruction-tuned (Dream-7B-Instruct) models on language modeling and math \& coding tasks. When four tokens are unmasked for each full-model denoising step, our sampling algorithm achieves a MAUVE score of 0.87 (vs marginal baseline of 0.31) with respect to the true joint distribution.

Recent advances such as self-consistency and test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improve the reliability of large language models (LLMs) without additional supervision, yet their underlying mechanisms and statistical guarantees remain poorly understood. We present a unified framework for certifiable inference in LLMs, showing that majority voting provides a statistical certificate of self-consistency: under mild assumptions, the aggregated answer coincides with the mode of the model's terminal distribution with high probability. We derive finite-sample and anytime-valid concentration bounds that quantify this confidence, and introduce the Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC), a sequential stopping rule that adaptively determines when sufficient samples have been drawn. We further prove that label-free post-training methods such as TTRL implicitly sharpen the answer distribution by exponentially tilting it toward its mode, thereby reducing the number of samples required for certification. Building on this insight, we propose new post-training objectives that explicitly optimise this trade-off between sharpness and bias. Together, these results explain and connect two central test-time scaling strategies, self-consistency and TTRL, within a single statistical framework for label-free, certifiable reliability in reasoning LLMs.

The advent of 1-bit large language models (LLMs), led by BitNet b1.58, has spurred interest in ternary LLMs. Despite this, research and practical applications focusing on efficient edge inference for ternary LLMs remain scarce. To bridge this gap, we introduce Bitnet.cpp, an inference system optimized for BitNet b1.58 and ternary LLMs. Given that mixed-precision matrix multiplication (mpGEMM) constitutes the bulk of inference time in ternary LLMs, Bitnet.cpp incorporates a novel mpGEMM library to facilitate sub-2-bits-per-weight, efficient and lossless inference. The library features two core solutions: Ternary Lookup Table (TL), which addresses spatial inefficiencies of previous bit-wise methods, and Int2 with a Scale (I2_S), which ensures lossless edge inference, both enabling high-speed inference. Our experiments show that Bitnet.cpp achieves up to a 6.25x increase in speed over full-precision baselines and up to 2.32x over low-bit baselines, setting new benchmarks in the field. Additionally, we expand TL to element-wise lookup table (ELUT) for low-bit LLMs in the appendix, presenting both theoretical and empirical evidence of its considerable potential. Bitnet.cpp is publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/BitNet/tree/paper , offering a sophisticated solution for the efficient and practical deployment of edge LLMs.

Membership inference attacks aim to infer whether an individual record was used to train a model, serving as a key tool for disclosure auditing. While such evaluations are useful to demonstrate risk, they are computationally expensive and often make strong assumptions about potential adversaries' access to models and training environments, and thus do not provide very tight bounds on leakage from potential attacks. We show how prior claims around black-box access being sufficient for optimal membership inference do not hold for most useful settings such as stochastic gradient descent, and that optimal membership inference indeed requires white-box access. We validate our findings with a new white-box inference attack IHA (Inverse Hessian Attack) that explicitly uses model parameters by taking advantage of computing inverse-Hessian vector products. Our results show that both audits and adversaries may be able to benefit from access to model parameters, and we advocate for further research into white-box methods for membership privacy auditing.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided by process reward models, which often assign overconfident scores early in the reasoning process. This causes PF to suffer from premature exploitation: it myopically commits to locally promising trajectories, prunes potentially correct hypotheses, and converges to suboptimal solutions. This failure mode, known as particle impoverishment, is especially severe under constrained computational budgets. To address this, we analyze the problem and identify two root causes: a lack of diversity in the particle set due to overconfident resampling and consequent inability to assess the potential of a reasoning path. We introduce Entropic Particle Filtering (ePF), an algorithm that integrates two new techniques to solve these issues. The first technique, Entropic Annealing (EA), directly mitigates particle impoverishment by monitoring search diversity via entropy; when diversity drops, it intervenes by dynamically annealing the resampling distribution to preserve exploration. The second, an enhancement called Look-ahead Modulation (LaM), adds a predictive guide to evaluate a state's potential based on its successors. On several challenging math benchmarks, ePF significantly outperforms strong baselines and achieves up to a 50 % relative improvement in task reward. Together, these methods improve PF's resilience by balancing the exploration of diverse solution spaces with the exploitation of high-reward regions, ultimately leading to higher-quality solutions.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically prompted to follow a single instruction per inference call. In this work, we analyze whether LLMs also hold the capability to handle multiple instructions simultaneously, denoted as Multi-Task Inference. For this purpose, we introduce the MTI Bench(Multi-Task Inference Benchmark), a comprehensive evaluation benchmark encompassing 5,000 instances across 25 tasks. Each task in the MTI Bench involves 2 to 3 sub-tasks. As expected, we first demonstrate that Multi-Task Inference reduces the total inference time by 1.46 times in average since it does not require multiple inference calls. Interestingly, contrary to the expectation that LLMs would perform better when tasks are divided, we find that state-of-the-art LLMs, such as Llama-2-Chat-70B and GPT-4, show up to 7.3% and 12.4% improved performance with Multi-Task Inference compared to Single-Task Inference on the MTI Bench. We release the MTI Bench dataset and our code at this link https://github.com/guijinSON/MTI-Bench.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, existing approaches mainly rely on imitation learning and struggle to achieve effective test-time scaling. While reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for enabling self-exploration and learning from feedback, recent attempts yield only modest improvements in complex reasoning. In this paper, we present T1 to scale RL by encouraging exploration and understand inference scaling. We first initialize the LLM using synthesized chain-of-thought data that integrates trial-and-error and self-verification. To scale RL training, we promote increased sampling diversity through oversampling. We further employ an entropy bonus as an auxiliary loss, alongside a dynamic anchor for regularization to facilitate reward optimization. We demonstrate that T1 with open LLMs as its base exhibits inference scaling behavior and achieves superior performance on challenging math reasoning benchmarks. For example, T1 with Qwen2.5-32B as the base model outperforms the recent Qwen QwQ-32B-Preview model on MATH500, AIME2024, and Omni-math-500. More importantly, we present a simple strategy to examine inference scaling, where increased inference budgets directly lead to T1's better performance without any additional verification. We will open-source the T1 models and the data used to train them at https://github.com/THUDM/T1.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

We show that the majority of the inference computations for large generative models such as LLaMA and OPT can be performed with both weights and activations being cast to 4 bits, in a way that leads to practical speedups while at the same time maintaining good accuracy. We achieve this via a hybrid quantization strategy called QUIK, which compresses most of the weights and activations to 4-bit, while keeping some outlier weights and activations in higher-precision. Crucially, our scheme is designed with computational efficiency in mind: we provide GPU kernels with highly-efficient layer-wise runtimes, which lead to practical end-to-end throughput improvements of up to 3.1x relative to FP16 execution. Code and models are provided at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/QUIK.

Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.

This review paper is intended for the 2nd edition of the Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. We provide an introduction to approximate inference techniques as Bayesian computation methods applied to deep learning models. We organize the chapter by presenting popular computational methods for Bayesian neural networks and deep generative models, explaining their unique challenges in posterior inference as well as the solutions.

We endow Large Language Models (LLMs) with fine-grained self-evaluation to refine multi-step reasoning inference. We propose an effective prompting approach that integrates self-evaluation guidance through stochastic beam search. Our approach explores the reasoning search space using a well-calibrated automatic criterion. This enables an efficient search to produce higher-quality final predictions. With the self-evaluation guided stochastic beam search, we also balance the quality-diversity trade-off in the generation of reasoning chains. This allows our approach to adapt well with majority voting and surpass the corresponding Codex-backboned baselines by 6.34%, 9.56%, and 5.46% on the GSM8K, AQuA, and StrategyQA benchmarks, respectively, in few-shot accuracy. Analysis of our decompositional reasoning finds it pinpoints logic failures and leads to higher consistency and robustness. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiXie/SelfEval-Guided-Decoding.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Scaling the size of language models to tens of billions of parameters has led to impressive performance on a wide range of tasks. At generation, these models are used auto-regressively, requiring a forward pass for each generated token, and thus reading the full set of parameters from memory. This memory access forms the primary bottleneck for generation and it worsens as the model size increases. Moreover, executing a forward pass for multiple tokens in parallel often takes nearly the same time as it does for just one token. These two observations lead to the development of speculative sampling, where a second smaller model is used to draft a few tokens, that are then validated or rejected using a single forward pass of the large model. Unfortunately, this method requires two models that share the same tokenizer and thus limits its adoption. As an alternative, we propose to use parallel decoding as a way to draft multiple tokens from a single model with no computational cost, nor the need for a second model. Our approach only requires an additional input token that marks the words that will be generated simultaneously. We show promising performance (up to 30% speed-up) while requiring only as few as O(d_{emb}) additional parameters.

The pervasiveness of proprietary language models has raised privacy concerns for users' sensitive data, emphasizing the need for private inference (PI), where inference is performed directly on encrypted inputs. However, current PI methods face prohibitively higher communication and latency overheads, primarily due to nonlinear operations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis to understand the role of nonlinearities in transformer-based decoder-only language models. We introduce AERO, a four-step architectural optimization framework that refines the existing LLM architecture for efficient PI by systematically removing nonlinearities such as LayerNorm and GELU and reducing FLOPs counts. For the first time, we propose a Softmax-only architecture with significantly fewer FLOPs tailored for efficient PI. Furthermore, we devise a novel entropy regularization technique to improve the performance of Softmax-only models. AERO achieves up to 4.23times communication and 1.94times latency reduction. We validate the effectiveness of AERO by benchmarking it against the state-of-the-art.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

Given the generational gap in available hardware between lay practitioners and the most endowed institutions, LLMs are becoming increasingly inaccessible as they grow in size. Whilst many approaches have been proposed to compress LLMs to make their resource consumption manageable, these methods themselves tend to be resource intensive, putting them out of the reach of the very user groups they target. In this work, we explore the problem of structured pruning of LLMs using only forward passes. We seek to empower practitioners to prune models so large that their available hardware has just enough memory to run inference. We develop Bonsai, a gradient-free, perturbative pruning method capable of delivering small, fast, and accurate pruned models. We observe that Bonsai outputs pruned models that (i) outperform those generated by more expensive gradient-based structured pruning methods, and (ii) are twice as fast (with comparable accuracy) as those generated by semi-structured pruning methods requiring comparable resources as Bonsai. We also leverage Bonsai to produce a new sub-2B model using a single A6000 that yields state-of-the-art performance on 4/6 tasks on the Huggingface Open LLM leaderboard.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Inference-time scaling techniques have significantly bolstered the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by harnessing additional computational effort at inference without retraining. Similarly, Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting and its extension, Long CoT, improve accuracy by generating rich intermediate reasoning trajectories, but these approaches incur substantial token costs that impede their deployment in latency-sensitive settings. In this work, we first show that truncated CoT, which stops reasoning before completion and directly generates the final answer, often matches full CoT sampling while using dramatically fewer tokens. Building on this insight, we introduce Fractured Sampling, a unified inference-time strategy that interpolates between full CoT and solution-only sampling along three orthogonal axes: (1) the number of reasoning trajectories, (2) the number of final solutions per trajectory, and (3) the depth at which reasoning traces are truncated. Through extensive experiments on five diverse reasoning benchmarks and several model scales, we demonstrate that Fractured Sampling consistently achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs, yielding steep log-linear scaling gains in Pass@k versus token budget. Our analysis reveals how to allocate computation across these dimensions to maximize performance, paving the way for more efficient and scalable LLM reasoning.

Reasoning and inference are central to human and artificial intelligence. Modeling inference in human language is very challenging. With the availability of large annotated data (Bowman et al., 2015), it has recently become feasible to train neural network based inference models, which have shown to be very effective. In this paper, we present a new state-of-the-art result, achieving the accuracy of 88.6% on the Stanford Natural Language Inference Dataset. Unlike the previous top models that use very complicated network architectures, we first demonstrate that carefully designing sequential inference models based on chain LSTMs can outperform all previous models. Based on this, we further show that by explicitly considering recursive architectures in both local inference modeling and inference composition, we achieve additional improvement. Particularly, incorporating syntactic parsing information contributes to our best result---it further improves the performance even when added to the already very strong model.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Code generation is a latency-sensitive task that demands high timeliness, but the autoregressive decoding mechanism of Large Language Models (LLMs) leads to poor inference efficiency. Existing LLM inference acceleration methods mainly focus on standalone functions using only built-in components. Moreover, they treat code like natural language sequences, ignoring its unique syntax and semantic characteristics. As a result, the effectiveness of these approaches in code generation tasks remains limited and fails to align with real-world programming scenarios. To alleviate this issue, we propose CodeSwift, a simple yet highly efficient inference acceleration approach specifically designed for code generation, without comprising the quality of the output. CodeSwift constructs a multi-source datastore, providing access to both general and project-specific knowledge, facilitating the retrieval of high-quality draft sequences. Moreover, CodeSwift reduces retrieval cost by controlling retrieval timing, and enhances efficiency through parallel retrieval and a context- and LLM preference-aware cache. Experimental results show that CodeSwift can reach up to 2.53x and 2.54x speedup compared to autoregressive decoding in repository-level and standalone code generation tasks, respectively, outperforming state-of-the-art inference acceleration approaches by up to 88%.

We study the problem of training diffusion models to sample from a distribution with a given unnormalized density or energy function. We benchmark several diffusion-structured inference methods, including simulation-based variational approaches and off-policy methods (continuous generative flow networks). Our results shed light on the relative advantages of existing algorithms while bringing into question some claims from past work. We also propose a novel exploration strategy for off-policy methods, based on local search in the target space with the use of a replay buffer, and show that it improves the quality of samples on a variety of target distributions. Our code for the sampling methods and benchmarks studied is made public at https://github.com/GFNOrg/gfn-diffusion as a base for future work on diffusion models for amortized inference.

We propose an inference-time scaling approach for pretrained flow models. Recently, inference-time scaling has gained significant attention in LLMs and diffusion models, improving sample quality or better aligning outputs with user preferences by leveraging additional computation. For diffusion models, particle sampling has allowed more efficient scaling due to the stochasticity at intermediate denoising steps. On the contrary, while flow models have gained popularity as an alternative to diffusion models--offering faster generation and high-quality outputs in state-of-the-art image and video generative models--efficient inference-time scaling methods used for diffusion models cannot be directly applied due to their deterministic generative process. To enable efficient inference-time scaling for flow models, we propose three key ideas: 1) SDE-based generation, enabling particle sampling in flow models, 2) Interpolant conversion, broadening the search space and enhancing sample diversity, and 3) Rollover Budget Forcing (RBF), an adaptive allocation of computational resources across timesteps to maximize budget utilization. Our experiments show that SDE-based generation, particularly variance-preserving (VP) interpolant-based generation, improves the performance of particle sampling methods for inference-time scaling in flow models. Additionally, we demonstrate that RBF with VP-SDE achieves the best performance, outperforming all previous inference-time scaling approaches.

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection of variational objectives and gradient estimators, which are implemented monolithically (and without formal correctness arguments) in PPL backends. In this paper, we propose a more modular approach to supporting variational inference in PPLs, based on compositional program transformation. In our approach, variational objectives are expressed as programs, that may employ first-class constructs for computing densities of and expected values under user-defined models and variational families. We then transform these programs systematically into unbiased gradient estimators for optimizing the objectives they define. Our design enables modular reasoning about many interacting concerns, including automatic differentiation, density accumulation, tracing, and the application of unbiased gradient estimation strategies. Additionally, relative to existing support for VI in PPLs, our design increases expressiveness along three axes: (1) it supports an open-ended set of user-defined variational objectives, rather than a fixed menu of options; (2) it supports a combinatorial space of gradient estimation strategies, many not automated by today's PPLs; and (3) it supports a broader class of models and variational families, because it supports constructs for approximate marginalization and normalization (previously introduced only for Monte Carlo inference). We implement our approach in an extension to the Gen probabilistic programming system (genjax.vi, implemented in JAX), and evaluate on several deep generative modeling tasks, showing minimal performance overhead vs. hand-coded implementations and performance competitive with well-established open-source PPLs.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via either Monte Carlo or expectation-maximization methods. In this work we introduce an alternative, variational inference algorithm for Markov jump processes which relies on neural ordinary differential equations, and is trainable via back-propagation. Our methodology learns neural, continuous-time representations of the observed data, that are used to approximate the initial distribution and time-dependent transition probability rates of the posterior Markov jump process. The time-independent rates of the prior process are in contrast trained akin to generative adversarial networks. We test our approach on synthetic data sampled from ground-truth Markov jump processes, experimental switching ion channel data and molecular dynamics simulations. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

While increasing training compute has significantly improved the performance of large language models (LLMs), similar gains have not been observed when scaling inference compute. We hypothesize that the primary issue lies in the uniformity of LLM outputs, which leads to inefficient sampling as models repeatedly generate similar but inaccurate responses. Motivated by an intriguing relationship between solution accuracy and response diversity, we propose DivSampling -- a novel and versatile sampling technique designed to enhance the diversity of candidate solutions by introducing prompt perturbations.DivSampling incorporates two categories of perturbations: task-agnostic approaches, which are general and not tailored to any specific task, and task-specific approaches, which are customized based on task content. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that, under mild assumptions, the error rates of responses generated from diverse prompts are significantly lower compared to those produced by stationary prompts. Comprehensive evaluations across various tasks -- including reasoning, mathematics, and code generation -- highlight the effectiveness of DivSampling in improving solution accuracy. This scalable and efficient approach offers a new perspective on optimizing test-time inference, addressing limitations in current sampling strategies.

Robustness is essential for deep neural networks, especially in security-sensitive applications. To this end, randomized smoothing provides theoretical guarantees for certifying robustness against adversarial perturbations. Recently, diffusion models have been successfully employed for randomized smoothing to purify noise-perturbed samples before making predictions with a standard classifier. While these methods excel at small perturbation radii, they struggle with larger perturbations and incur a significant computational overhead during inference compared to classical methods. To address this, we reformulate the generative modeling task along the diffusion trajectories in pixel space as a discriminative task in the latent space. Specifically, we use instance discrimination to achieve consistent representations along the trajectories by aligning temporally adjacent points. After fine-tuning based on the learned representations, our model enables implicit denoising-then-classification via a single prediction, substantially reducing inference costs. We conduct extensive experiments on various datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performance with minimal computation budget during inference. For example, our method outperforms the certified accuracy of diffusion-based methods on ImageNet across all perturbation radii by 5.3% on average, with up to 11.6% at larger radii, while reducing inference costs by 85times on average. Codes are available at: https://github.com/jiachenlei/rRCM.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems efficiently remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of posterior distributions and the computational cost of traditional sampling methods. Given a series of observations and the forward model, we want to recover the distribution of the parameters, conditioned on observed experimental data. We show, that combining Conditional Flow Mathching (CFM) with transformer-based architecture, we can efficiently sample from such kind of distribution, conditioned on variable number of observations.

With the advancement of large language models (LLMs), solving complex reasoning tasks has gained increasing attention. Inference-time computation methods (e.g., Best-of-N, beam search, et al.) are particularly valuable as they can enhance reasoning performance without modifying model parameters or requiring additional training. However, these techniques come with implementation challenges, and most existing methods remain at the proof-of-concept stage with limited practical adoption due to their computational complexity and varying effectiveness across different tasks. In this paper, we investigate and benchmark diverse inference-time computation strategies across reasoning tasks of varying complexity. Since most current methods rely on a proposer-verifier pipeline that first generates candidate solutions (e.g., reasoning solutions) and then selects the best one based on reward signals (e.g., RLHF rewards, process rewards), our research focuses on optimizing both candidate solution generation (e.g., instructing prompts, hyperparameters such as temperature and top-p) and reward mechanisms (e.g., self-evaluation, reward types). Through extensive experiments (more than 20,000 A100-80G GPU hours with over 1,000 experiments) across a variety of models (e.g., Llama, Qwen, and Mistral families) of various sizes, our ablation studies reveal that previously overlooked strategies can significantly enhance performance (e.g., tuning temperature can improve reasoning task performance by up to 5%). Furthermore, we establish a standardized benchmark for inference-time computation by systematically evaluating six representative methods across eight reasoning tasks. These findings provide a stronger foundation for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/benchmark_inference_time_computation_LLM

A distribution inference attack aims to infer statistical properties of data used to train machine learning models. These attacks are sometimes surprisingly potent, but the factors that impact distribution inference risk are not well understood and demonstrated attacks often rely on strong and unrealistic assumptions such as full knowledge of training environments even in supposedly black-box threat scenarios. To improve understanding of distribution inference risks, we develop a new black-box attack that even outperforms the best known white-box attack in most settings. Using this new attack, we evaluate distribution inference risk while relaxing a variety of assumptions about the adversary's knowledge under black-box access, like known model architectures and label-only access. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of previously proposed defenses and introduce new defenses. We find that although noise-based defenses appear to be ineffective, a simple re-sampling defense can be highly effective. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/dissecting_distribution_inference

Diffusion models have emerged as a key pillar of foundation models in visual domains. One of their critical applications is to universally solve different downstream inverse tasks via a single diffusion prior without re-training for each task. Most inverse tasks can be formulated as inferring a posterior distribution over data (e.g., a full image) given a measurement (e.g., a masked image). This is however challenging in diffusion models since the nonlinear and iterative nature of the diffusion process renders the posterior intractable. To cope with this challenge, we propose a variational approach that by design seeks to approximate the true posterior distribution. We show that our approach naturally leads to regularization by denoising diffusion process (RED-Diff) where denoisers at different timesteps concurrently impose different structural constraints over the image. To gauge the contribution of denoisers from different timesteps, we propose a weighting mechanism based on signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). Our approach provides a new variational perspective for solving inverse problems with diffusion models, allowing us to formulate sampling as stochastic optimization, where one can simply apply off-the-shelf solvers with lightweight iterates. Our experiments for image restoration tasks such as inpainting and superresolution demonstrate the strengths of our method compared with state-of-the-art sampling-based diffusion models.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as a key strategy for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), particularly in tasks like mathematical problem-solving. A traditional approach, Self-Consistency (SC), generates multiple solutions to a problem and selects the most common answer via majority voting. Another common method involves scoring each solution with a reward model (verifier) and choosing the best one. Recent advancements in Generative Reward Models (GenRM) reframe verification as a next-token prediction task, enabling inference-time scaling along a new axis. Specifically, GenRM generates multiple verification chains-of-thought to score each solution. Under a limited inference budget, this introduces a fundamental trade-off: should you spend the budget on scaling solutions via SC or generate fewer solutions and allocate compute to verification via GenRM? To address this, we evaluate GenRM against SC under a fixed inference budget. Interestingly, we find that SC is more compute-efficient than GenRM for most practical inference budgets across diverse models and datasets. For instance, GenRM first matches SC after consuming up to 8x the inference compute and requires significantly more compute to outperform it. Furthermore, we derive inference scaling laws for the GenRM paradigm, revealing that compute-optimal inference favors scaling solution generation more aggressively than scaling the number of verifications. Our work provides practical guidance on optimizing test-time scaling by balancing solution generation and verification. The code is available at https://github.com/nishadsinghi/sc-genrm-scaling.

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces before producing final answers, yielding strong gains on multi-step and mathematical tasks. Yet aligning LRMs with human preferences, a crucial prerequisite for model deployment, remains underexplored. The statistically correct objective for preference alignment requires marginalizing over reasoning traces, but this computation is intractable in practice. A common workaround optimizes a single sampled trajectory, which introduces substantial gradient variance from stochastic trace sampling. To address this challenge, we frame preference optimization for LRMs through the lens of the bias--variance trade-off and propose Bias--Variance Optimized Preference Optimization (BVPO), a simple, drop-in method that mixes two gradient estimators: a high-variance trace-based estimator and a low-variance empty-trace estimator obtained by disabling reasoning trace generation. Our theory shows that BVPO strictly reduces trace-induced variance for any nontrivial mixture, provides a closed-form choice of the mixing weight that minimizes mean-squared error relative to the true marginal gradient, and under standard smoothness and step-size conditions, tightens classical convergence bounds for stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, BVPO improves alignment over the best baseline by up to 7.8 points on AlpacaEval~2 and 6.8 points on Arena-Hard. Despite being trained only on general conversational data, BVPO also boosts reasoning performance for base models by up to 4.0 points on the average of six math reasoning benchmarks. These results identify variance from trace sampling as a key bottleneck and demonstrate that directly optimizing the bias--variance trade-off yields more stable training and stronger overall performance.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

While test-time reasoning enables language models to tackle complex tasks, searching or planning in natural language can be slow, costly, and error-prone. But even when LMs struggle to emulate the precise reasoning steps needed to solve a problem, they often excel at describing its abstract structure--both how to verify solutions and how to search for them. This paper introduces DisCIPL, a method for "self-steering" LMs where a Planner model generates a task-specific inference program that is executed by a population of Follower models. Our approach equips LMs with the ability to write recursive search procedures that guide LM inference, enabling new forms of verifiable and efficient reasoning. When instantiated with a small Follower (e.g., Llama-3.2-1B), DisCIPL matches (and sometimes outperforms) much larger models, including GPT-4o and o1, on challenging constrained generation tasks. In decoupling planning from execution, our work opens up a design space of highly-parallelized Monte Carlo inference strategies that outperform standard best-of-N sampling, require no finetuning, and can be implemented automatically by existing LMs.

Machine learning models trained with differentially-private (DP) algorithms such as DP-SGD enjoy resilience against a wide range of privacy attacks. Although it is possible to derive bounds for some attacks based solely on an (varepsilon,delta)-DP guarantee, meaningful bounds require a small enough privacy budget (i.e., injecting a large amount of noise), which results in a large loss in utility. This paper presents a new approach to evaluate the privacy of machine learning models against specific record-level threats, such as membership and attribute inference, without the indirection through DP. We focus on the popular DP-SGD algorithm, and derive simple closed-form bounds. Our proofs model DP-SGD as an information theoretic channel whose inputs are the secrets that an attacker wants to infer (e.g., membership of a data record) and whose outputs are the intermediate model parameters produced by iterative optimization. We obtain bounds for membership inference that match state-of-the-art techniques, whilst being orders of magnitude faster to compute. Additionally, we present a novel data-dependent bound against attribute inference. Our results provide a direct, interpretable, and practical way to evaluate the privacy of trained models against specific inference threats without sacrificing utility.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling techniques like best-of-N sampling and tree search. However, these approaches often demand substantial computational resources, creating a critical trade-off between performance and efficiency. We introduce STAND (STochastic Adaptive N-gram Drafting), a novel model-free speculative decoding approach that leverages the inherent redundancy in reasoning trajectories to achieve significant acceleration without compromising accuracy. Our analysis reveals that reasoning paths frequently reuse similar reasoning patterns, enabling efficient model-free token prediction without requiring separate draft models. By introducing stochastic drafting and preserving probabilistic information through a memory-efficient logit-based N-gram module, combined with optimized Gumbel-Top-K sampling and data-driven tree construction, STAND significantly improves token acceptance rates. Extensive evaluations across multiple models and reasoning tasks (AIME-2024, GPQA-Diamond, and LiveCodeBench) demonstrate that STAND reduces inference latency by 60-65% compared to standard autoregressive decoding while maintaining accuracy. Furthermore, STAND outperforms state-of-the-art speculative decoding methods by 14-28% in throughput and shows strong performance even in single-trajectory scenarios, reducing inference latency by 48-58%. As a model-free approach, STAND can be applied to any existing language model without additional training, being a powerful plug-and-play solution for accelerating language model reasoning.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

The variational autoencoder (VAE; Kingma, Welling (2014)) is a recently proposed generative model pairing a top-down generative network with a bottom-up recognition network which approximates posterior inference. It typically makes strong assumptions about posterior inference, for instance that the posterior distribution is approximately factorial, and that its parameters can be approximated with nonlinear regression from the observations. As we show empirically, the VAE objective can lead to overly simplified representations which fail to use the network's entire modeling capacity. We present the importance weighted autoencoder (IWAE), a generative model with the same architecture as the VAE, but which uses a strictly tighter log-likelihood lower bound derived from importance weighting. In the IWAE, the recognition network uses multiple samples to approximate the posterior, giving it increased flexibility to model complex posteriors which do not fit the VAE modeling assumptions. We show empirically that IWAEs learn richer latent space representations than VAEs, leading to improved test log-likelihood on density estimation benchmarks.

Inference-time scaling trades efficiency for increased reasoning accuracy by generating longer or more parallel sequences. However, in Transformer LLMs, generation cost is bottlenecked by the size of the key-value (KV) cache, rather than the number of generated tokens. Hence, we explore inference-time hyper-scaling: by compressing the KV cache, we can generate more tokens within the same compute budget and further improve the accuracy of scaled inference. The success of this approach, however, hinges on the ability of compression methods to preserve accuracy even at high compression ratios. To make hyper-scaling practical, we introduce Dynamic Memory Sparsification (DMS), a novel method for sparsifying KV caches that only requires 1K training steps to achieve 8times compression, while maintaining better accuracy than training-free sparse attention. Instead of prematurely discarding cached tokens, DMS delays token eviction, implicitly merging representations and preserving critical information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of inference-time hyper-scaling with DMS on multiple families of LLMs, showing that it boosts accuracy for comparable inference runtime and memory load. For instance, we enhance Qwen-R1 32B by an average of 9.1 points on AIME 24, 7.6 on GPQA, and 9.6 on LiveCodeBench across compute budgets.

Large language models (LLMs) have proven to be very capable, but access to the best models currently rely on inference providers which introduces trust challenges -- how can we be sure that the provider is using the model configuration they claim? We propose TOPLOC, a novel method for verifiable inference that addresses this problem. TOPLOC leverages a compact locality sensitive hashing mechanism for intermediate activations which can detect unauthorized modifications to models, prompts, or precision with 100% accuracy, achieving no false positives or negatives in our empirical evaluations. Our approach is robust across diverse hardware configurations, GPU types, and algebraic reorderings, which allows for validation speeds significantly faster than the original inference. By introducing a polynomial encoding scheme, TOPLOC minimizes memory overhead of the generated commits by 1000times, requiring only 258 bytes of storage per 32 new tokens compared to the 262KB requirement of storing the token embeddings directly for Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct. Our method empowers users to verify LLM inference computations efficiently, fostering greater trust and transparency in open ecosystems and lays a foundation for decentralized and verifiable AI services.

Test-time compute has emerged as a powerful paradigm for improving the performance of large language models (LLMs), where generating multiple outputs or refining individual chains can significantly boost answer accuracy. However, existing methods like Best-of-N, majority voting, and self-reflection typically apply reasoning in a uniform way across inputs, overlooking the fact that different problems may require different levels of reasoning depth. In this work, we propose Fractional Reasoning, a training-free and model-agnostic framework that enables continuous control over reasoning intensity at inference time, going beyond the limitations of fixed instructional prompts. Our method operates by extracting the latent steering vector associated with deeper reasoning and reapplying it with a tunable scaling factor, allowing the model to tailor its reasoning process to the complexity of each input. This supports two key modes of test-time scaling: (1) improving output quality in breadth-based strategies (e.g., Best-of-N, majority voting), and (2) enhancing the correctness of individual reasoning chains in depth-based strategies (e.g., self-reflection). Experiments on GSM8K, MATH500, and GPQA demonstrate that Fractional Reasoning consistently improves performance across diverse reasoning tasks and models.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Scaling the test-time compute of large language models has demonstrated impressive performance on reasoning benchmarks. However, existing evaluations of test-time scaling make the strong assumption that a reasoning system should always give an answer to any question provided. This overlooks concerns about whether a model is confident in its answer, and whether it is appropriate to always provide a response. To address these concerns, we extract confidence scores during reasoning for thresholding model responses. We find that increasing compute budget at inference time not only helps models answer more questions correctly, but also increases confidence in correct responses. We then extend the current paradigm of zero-risk responses during evaluation by considering settings with non-zero levels of response risk, and suggest a recipe for reporting evaluations under these settings.

Autoregressive language models demonstrate excellent performance in various scenarios. However, the inference efficiency is limited by its one-step-one-word generation mode, which has become a pressing problem recently as the models become increasingly larger. Speculative decoding employs a "draft and then verify" mechanism to allow multiple tokens to be generated in one step, realizing lossless acceleration. Existing methods mainly adopt fixed heuristic draft structures, which fail to adapt to different situations to maximize the acceptance length during verification. To alleviate this dilemma, we proposed OPT-Tree, an algorithm to construct adaptive and scalable draft trees. It searches the optimal tree structure that maximizes the mathematical expectation of the acceptance length in each decoding step. Experimental results reveal that OPT-Tree outperforms the existing draft structures and achieves a speed-up ratio of up to 3.2 compared with autoregressive decoding. If the draft model is powerful enough and the node budget is sufficient, it can generate more than ten tokens in a single step. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jikai0Wang/OPT-Tree.

Backpropagation provides a generalized configuration for overcoming catastrophic forgetting. Like, SGD and Adam are commonly used for weight updates in continual learning and continual pre-training. In practice, permission to access gradient information is not always granted (the gradient ban), such as black-box APIs, hardware limitations, and non-differentiable systems. To bridge this gap, we introduce the first benchmark ZeroFlow to evaluate gradient-free optimization algorithms for overcoming forgetting. This benchmark examines a suite of forward pass methods across multiple methods, forgetting scenarios, and datasets. We find that forward passes alone are enough to overcome forgetting. Our findings reveal new optimization principles that highlight the potential of forward-pass in mitigating forgetting, managing task conflicts, and reducing memory demands, alongside novel enhancements that further mitigate forgetting with just one forward pass. This work provides essential insights and tools for advancing forward pass methods to overcome forgetting.

In this paper, we propose a novel approach where agents can form swarms to produce high-quality responses effectively. This is accomplished by utilizing agents capable of data inference and ranking, which can be effectively implemented using LLMs as response classifiers. We assess existing approaches for trustless agent inference, define our methodology, estimate practical parameters, and model various types of malicious agent attacks. Our method leverages the collective intelligence of swarms, ensuring robust and efficient decentralized AI inference with better accuracy, security, and reliability. We show that our approach is an order of magnitude faster than other trustless inference strategies reaching less than 125 ms validation latency.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

Modern machine learning models are sensitive to the manipulation of both the training data (poisoning attacks) and inference data (adversarial examples). Recognizing this issue, the community has developed many empirical defenses against both attacks and, more recently, provable certification methods against inference-time attacks. However, such guarantees are still largely lacking for training-time attacks. In this work, we present FullCert, the first end-to-end certifier with sound, deterministic bounds, which proves robustness against both training-time and inference-time attacks. We first bound all possible perturbations an adversary can make to the training data under the considered threat model. Using these constraints, we bound the perturbations' influence on the model's parameters. Finally, we bound the impact of these parameter changes on the model's prediction, resulting in joint robustness guarantees against poisoning and adversarial examples. To facilitate this novel certification paradigm, we combine our theoretical work with a new open-source library BoundFlow, which enables model training on bounded datasets. We experimentally demonstrate FullCert's feasibility on two different datasets.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) have emerged as a valuable framework for evaluating privacy leakage by machine learning models. Score-based MIAs are distinguished, in particular, by their ability to exploit the confidence scores that the model generates for particular inputs. Existing score-based MIAs implicitly assume that the adversary has access to the target model's hyperparameters, which can be used to train the shadow models for the attack. In this work, we demonstrate that the knowledge of target hyperparameters is not a prerequisite for MIA in the transfer learning setting. Based on this, we propose a novel approach to select the hyperparameters for training the shadow models for MIA when the attacker has no prior knowledge about them by matching the output distributions of target and shadow models. We demonstrate that using the new approach yields hyperparameters that lead to an attack near indistinguishable in performance from an attack that uses target hyperparameters to train the shadow models. Furthermore, we study the empirical privacy risk of unaccounted use of training data for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) in differentially private (DP) transfer learning. We find no statistically significant evidence that performing HPO using training data would increase vulnerability to MIA.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Decoder-only Transformers often struggle with complex reasoning tasks, particularly arithmetic reasoning requiring multiple sequential operations. In this work, we identify representation collapse in the model's intermediate layers as a key factor limiting their reasoning capabilities. To address this, we propose Sequential Variance-Covariance Regularization (Seq-VCR), which enhances the entropy of intermediate representations and prevents collapse. Combined with dummy pause tokens as substitutes for chain-of-thought (CoT) tokens, our method significantly improves performance in arithmetic reasoning problems. In the challenging 5 times 5 integer multiplication task, our approach achieves 99.5% exact match accuracy, outperforming models of the same size (which yield 0% accuracy) and GPT-4 with five-shot CoT prompting (44%). We also demonstrate superior results on arithmetic expression and longest increasing subsequence (LIS) datasets. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing intermediate layer representation collapse to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Transformers and show that Seq-VCR offers an effective solution without requiring explicit CoT supervision.

With the increasing diversity of ML infrastructures nowadays, distributed training over heterogeneous computing systems is desired to facilitate the production of big models. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have been proposed to lower the cost of training subject to the overall size of models/data through gating and parallelism in a divide-and-conquer fashion. While DeepSpeed has made efforts in carrying out large-scale MoE training over heterogeneous infrastructures, the efficiency of training and inference could be further improved from several system aspects, including load balancing, communication/computation efficiency, and memory footprint limits. In this work, we present SE-MoE that proposes Elastic MoE training with 2D prefetch and Fusion communication over Hierarchical storage, so as to enjoy efficient parallelisms in various types. For scalable inference in a single node, especially when the model size is larger than GPU memory, SE-MoE forms the CPU-GPU memory jointly into a ring of sections to load the model, and executes the computation tasks across the memory sections in a round-robin manner for efficient inference. We carried out extensive experiments to evaluate SE-MoE, where SE-MoE successfully trains a Unified Feature Optimization (UFO) model with a Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts model of 12B parameters in 8 days on 48 A100 GPU cards. The comparison against the state-of-the-art shows that SE-MoE outperformed DeepSpeed with 33% higher throughput (tokens per second) in training and 13% higher throughput in inference in general. Particularly, under unbalanced MoE Tasks, e.g., UFO, SE-MoE achieved 64% higher throughput with 18% lower memory footprints. The code of the framework will be released on: https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/Paddle.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Accelerating inference in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for real-time interactions, as they have been widely incorporated into real-world services. Speculative decoding, a fully algorithmic solution, has gained attention for improving inference speed by drafting and verifying tokens, thereby generating multiple tokens in a single forward pass. However, current drafting strategies usually require significant fine-tuning or have inconsistent performance across tasks. To address these challenges, we propose Hierarchy Drafting (HD), a novel lossless drafting approach that organizes various token sources into multiple databases in a hierarchical framework based on temporal locality. In the drafting step, HD sequentially accesses multiple databases to obtain draft tokens from the highest to the lowest locality, ensuring consistent acceleration across diverse tasks and minimizing drafting latency. Our experiments on Spec-Bench using LLMs with 7B and 13B parameters demonstrate that HD outperforms existing database drafting methods, achieving robust inference speedups across model sizes, tasks, and temperatures.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

The capabilities and adoption of deep neural networks (DNNs) grow at an exhilarating pace: Vision models accurately classify human actions in videos and identify cancerous tissue in medical scans as precisely than human experts; large language models answer wide-ranging questions, generate code, and write prose, becoming the topic of everyday dinner-table conversations. Even though their uses are exhilarating, the continually increasing model sizes and computational complexities have a dark side. The economic cost and negative environmental externalities of training and serving models is in evident disharmony with financial viability and climate action goals. Instead of pursuing yet another increase in predictive performance, this dissertation is dedicated to the improvement of neural network efficiency. Specifically, a core contribution addresses the efficiency aspects during online inference. Here, the concept of Continual Inference Networks (CINs) is proposed and explored across four publications. CINs extend prior state-of-the-art methods developed for offline processing of spatio-temporal data and reuse their pre-trained weights, improving their online processing efficiency by an order of magnitude. These advances are attained through a bottom-up computational reorganization and judicious architectural modifications. The benefit to online inference is demonstrated by reformulating several widely used network architectures into CINs, including 3D CNNs, ST-GCNs, and Transformer Encoders. An orthogonal contribution tackles the concurrent adaptation and computational acceleration of a large source model into multiple lightweight derived models. Drawing on fusible adapter networks and structured pruning, Structured Pruning Adapters achieve superior predictive accuracy under aggressive pruning using significantly fewer learned weights compared to fine-tuning with pruning.

Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of LLM test-time scaling. However, existing approaches to incentivize LLMs' deep thinking abilities generally require large-scale data or significant training efforts. Meanwhile, it remains unclear how to improve the thinking abilities of less powerful base models. In this work, we introduce S^2R, an efficient framework that enhances LLM reasoning by teaching models to self-verify and self-correct during inference. Specifically, we first initialize LLMs with iterative self-verification and self-correction behaviors through supervised fine-tuning on carefully curated data. The self-verification and self-correction skills are then further strengthened by both outcome-level and process-level reinforcement learning, with minimized resource requirements, enabling the model to adaptively refine its reasoning process during inference. Our results demonstrate that, with only 3.1k self-verifying and self-correcting behavior initialization samples, Qwen2.5-math-7B achieves an accuracy improvement from 51.0\% to 81.6\%, outperforming models trained on an equivalent amount of long-CoT distilled data. Extensive experiments and analysis based on three base models across both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks validate the effectiveness of S^2R. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/NineAbyss/S2R.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Enabling LLMs to improve their outputs by using more test-time computation is a critical step towards building generally self-improving agents that can operate on open-ended natural language. In this paper, we study the scaling of inference-time computation in LLMs, with a focus on answering the question: if an LLM is allowed to use a fixed but non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve its performance on a challenging prompt? Answering this question has implications not only on the achievable performance of LLMs, but also on the future of LLM pretraining and how one should tradeoff inference-time and pre-training compute. Despite its importance, little research attempted to understand the scaling behaviors of various test-time inference methods. Moreover, current work largely provides negative results for a number of these strategies. In this work, we analyze two primary mechanisms to scale test-time computation: (1) searching against dense, process-based verifier reward models; and (2) updating the model's distribution over a response adaptively, given the prompt at test time. We find that in both cases, the effectiveness of different approaches to scaling test-time compute critically varies depending on the difficulty of the prompt. This observation motivates applying a "compute-optimal" scaling strategy, which acts to most effectively allocate test-time compute adaptively per prompt. Using this compute-optimal strategy, we can improve the efficiency of test-time compute scaling by more than 4x compared to a best-of-N baseline. Additionally, in a FLOPs-matched evaluation, we find that on problems where a smaller base model attains somewhat non-trivial success rates, test-time compute can be used to outperform a 14x larger model.

Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive (AR) LLMs, leveraging denoising-based generation to enable inherent parallelism. Even more and more open-sourced dLLM models emerge, yet their widespread adoption remains constrained by the lack of a standardized and efficient inference framework. We present dInfer, an efficient and extensible framework for dLLM inference. dInfer decomposes the inference pipeline into four modular components--model, diffusion iteration manager, decoding strategy, and KV-cache manager--and integrates novel algorithms for each component alongside system-level optimizations. Through this combination of algorithmic innovations and system enhancements, dInfer achieves substantial efficiency gains without compromising output quality on LLaDA-MoE. At batch size 1, it surpasses 1,100 tokens per second on HumanEval and averages over 800 tokens per second across six benchmarks on 8times H800 GPUs. Compared to prior systems, dInfer delivers a 10times speedup over Fast-dLLM while maintaining similar model performance. Even compared to the AR model (with a comparable number of activation parameters and performance) QWen2.5-3B, which is highly optimized with the latest vLLM inference engine, dInfer still delivers a 2-3times speedup. The implementation of dInfer is open-sourced at https://github.com/inclusionAI/dInfer.

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there are finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, real-world data is often not naturally posed in this setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions. Then, we convert each GP into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications. We release the code of FunBaT at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Functional-Bayesian-Tucker-Decomposition.

We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as a stochastic encoder of the data. We develop stochastic back-propagation -- rules for back-propagation through stochastic variables -- and use this to develop an algorithm that allows for joint optimisation of the parameters of both the generative and recognition model. We demonstrate on several real-world data sets that the model generates realistic samples, provides accurate imputations of missing data and is a useful tool for high-dimensional data visualisation.

We introduce stochastic activations. This novel strategy randomly selects between several non-linear functions in the feed-forward layer of a large language model. In particular, we choose between SILU or RELU depending on a Bernoulli draw. This strategy circumvents the optimization problem associated with RELU, namely, the constant shape for negative inputs that prevents the gradient flow. We leverage this strategy in two ways: (1) We use stochastic activations during pre-training and fine-tune the model with RELU, which is used at inference time to provide sparse latent vectors. This reduces the inference FLOPs and translates into a significant speedup in the CPU. Interestingly, this leads to much better results than training from scratch with the RELU activation function. (2) We evaluate stochastic activations for generation. This strategy performs reasonably well: it is only slightly inferior to the best deterministic non-linearity, namely SILU combined with temperature scaling. This offers an alternative to existing strategies by providing a controlled way to increase the diversity of the generated text.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a widely used approach to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) without reducing generation quality. It operates by first using a compact model to draft multiple tokens efficiently, followed by parallel verification using the target LLM. This approach leads to faster inference compared to auto-regressive decoding. While there are multiple approaches to create a draft model, one promising approach is to use early-exit methods. These methods draft candidate tokens by using a subset of layers of the primary model and applying the remaining layers for verification, allowing a single model to handle both drafting and verification. While this technique reduces memory usage and computational cost, its performance relies on the choice of the exit layer for drafting and the number of tokens drafted (speculation length) in each SD round. Prior works use hyperparameter exploration to statically select these values. However, our evaluations show that these hyperparameter values are task-specific, and even within a task they are dependent on the current sequence context. We introduce DEL, a plug-and-play method that adaptively selects the exit layer and speculation length during inference. DEL dynamically tracks the token acceptance rate if the tokens are drafted at each layer of an LLM and uses that knowledge to heuristically select the optimal exit layer and speculation length. Our experiments across a broad range of models and downstream tasks show that DEL achieves overall speedups of 2.16timessim2.50times over vanilla auto-regressive decoding and improves upon the state-of-the-art SD methods by up to 0.27times.

Recent advances in inference-time compute have significantly improved performance on complex tasks by generating long chains of thought (CoTs) using Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). However, this improved accuracy comes at the cost of high inference latency due to the length of generated reasoning sequences and the autoregressive nature of decoding. Our key insight in tackling these overheads is that LRM inference, and the reasoning that it embeds, is highly tolerant of approximations: complex tasks are typically broken down into simpler steps, each of which brings utility based on the semantic insight it provides for downstream steps rather than the exact tokens it generates. Accordingly, we introduce SpecReason, a system that automatically accelerates LRM inference by using a lightweight model to (speculatively) carry out simpler intermediate reasoning steps and reserving the costly base model only to assess (and potentially correct) the speculated outputs. Importantly, SpecReason's focus on exploiting the semantic flexibility of thinking tokens in preserving final-answer accuracy is complementary to prior speculation techniques, most notably speculative decoding, which demands token-level equivalence at each step. Across a variety of reasoning benchmarks, SpecReason achieves 1.5-2.5times speedup over vanilla LRM inference while improving accuracy by 1.0-9.9\%. Compared to speculative decoding without SpecReason, their combination yields an additional 19.4-44.2\% latency reduction. We open-source SpecReason at https://github.com/ruipeterpan/specreason.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

Reasoning training incentivizes LLMs to produce long chains of thought (long CoT), which among other things, allows them to explore solution strategies with self-checking. This results in higher accuracy, but inflates context length, token/compute cost, and answer latency. We ask: Can current models leverage their metacognition to provide other combinations on this Pareto frontier, e.g., better accuracy with lower context length and/or latency? Abstractly, we view the model as an improvement operator on its own "thoughts" with a continuum of possible strategies. We identify an interesting inference family Parallel-Distill-Refine (PDR), which performs the following: (i) generate diverse drafts in parallel; (ii) distill them into a bounded, textual workspace; and (iii) refine conditioned on this workspace, producing an output that seeds the next round. Importantly, context length (hence compute cost) is controllable via degree of parallelism, and is no longer conflated with the total number of generated tokens. We report PDR instantiations of current models that give better accuracy than long CoT while incurring lower latency. Setting degree of parallelism to 1 yields an interesting subcase, Sequential Refinement (SR) (iteratively improve a single candidate answer) which provides performance superior to long CoT. Success of such model orchestrations raises the question whether further training could shift the Pareto frontier. To this end, we train an 8B thinking model with Reinforcement Learning (RL) to make it consistent with PDR as the inference method. On math tasks with verifiable answers, iterative pipelines surpass single-pass baselines at matched sequential budgets, with PDR delivering the largest gains (e.g., +11% on AIME 2024 and +9% on AIME 2025).

A membership inference attack (MIA) against a machine-learning model enables an attacker to determine whether a given data record was part of the model's training data or not. In this paper, we provide an in-depth study of the phenomenon of disparate vulnerability against MIAs: unequal success rate of MIAs against different population subgroups. We first establish necessary and sufficient conditions for MIAs to be prevented, both on average and for population subgroups, using a notion of distributional generalization. Second, we derive connections of disparate vulnerability to algorithmic fairness and to differential privacy. We show that fairness can only prevent disparate vulnerability against limited classes of adversaries. Differential privacy bounds disparate vulnerability but can significantly reduce the accuracy of the model. We show that estimating disparate vulnerability to MIAs by na\"ively applying existing attacks can lead to overestimation. We then establish which attacks are suitable for estimating disparate vulnerability, and provide a statistical framework for doing so reliably. We conduct experiments on synthetic and real-world data finding statistically significant evidence of disparate vulnerability in realistic settings. The code is available at https://github.com/spring-epfl/disparate-vulnerability

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for mathematical tasks, the broader impact of this approach on other tasks remains less clear. In this work, we investigate the benefits and limitations of scaling methods across nine state-of-the-art models and eight challenging tasks, including math and STEM reasoning, calendar planning, NP-hard problems, navigation, and spatial reasoning. We compare conventional models (e.g., GPT-4o) with models fine-tuned for inference-time scaling (e.g., o1) through evaluation protocols that involve repeated model calls, either independently or sequentially with feedback. These evaluations approximate lower and upper performance bounds and potential for future performance improvements for each model, whether through enhanced training or multi-model inference systems. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals that the advantages of inference-time scaling vary across tasks and diminish as problem complexity increases. In addition, simply using more tokens does not necessarily translate to higher accuracy in these challenging regimes. Results from multiple independent runs with conventional models using perfect verifiers show that, for some tasks, these models can achieve performance close to the average performance of today's most advanced reasoning models. However, for other tasks, a significant performance gap remains, even in very high scaling regimes. Encouragingly, all models demonstrate significant gains when inference is further scaled with perfect verifiers or strong feedback, suggesting ample potential for future improvements.

We study the problem of combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning. Recently introduced frameworks for Probabilistic Neurosymbolic Learning (PNL), such as DeepProbLog, perform exponential-time exact inference, limiting the scalability of PNL solutions. We introduce Approximate Neurosymbolic Inference (A-NeSI): a new framework for PNL that uses neural networks for scalable approximate inference. A-NeSI 1) performs approximate inference in polynomial time without changing the semantics of probabilistic logics; 2) is trained using data generated by the background knowledge; 3) can generate symbolic explanations of predictions; and 4) can guarantee the satisfaction of logical constraints at test time, which is vital in safety-critical applications. Our experiments show that A-NeSI is the first end-to-end method to solve three neurosymbolic tasks with exponential combinatorial scaling. Finally, our experiments show that A-NeSI achieves explainability and safety without a penalty in performance.

We present Klear-Reasoner, a model with long reasoning capabilities that demonstrates careful deliberation during problem solving, achieving outstanding performance across multiple benchmarks. Although there are already many excellent works related to inference models in the current community, there are still many problems with reproducing high-performance inference models due to incomplete disclosure of training details. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the reasoning model, covering the entire post-training workflow from data preparation and long Chain-of-Thought supervised fine-tuning (long CoT SFT) to reinforcement learning (RL), along with detailed ablation studies for each experimental component. For SFT data, our experiments show that a small number of high-quality data sources are more effective than a large number of diverse data sources, and that difficult samples can achieve better results without accuracy filtering. In addition, we investigate two key issues with current clipping mechanisms in RL: Clipping suppresses critical exploration signals and ignores suboptimal trajectories. To address these challenges, we propose Gradient-Preserving clipping Policy Optimization (GPPO) that gently backpropagates gradients from clipped tokens. GPPO not only enhances the model's exploration capacity but also improves its efficiency in learning from negative samples. Klear-Reasoner exhibits exceptional reasoning abilities in mathematics and programming, scoring 90.5\% on AIME 2024, 83.2\% on AIME 2025, 66.0\% on LiveCodeBench V5 and 58.1\% on LiveCodeBench V6.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance on tasks such as mathematics and code generation. Motivated by these strengths, recent work has empirically demonstrated the effectiveness of LRMs as guard models in improving harmful query detection. However, LRMs typically generate long reasoning traces during inference, causing substantial computational overhead. In this paper, we introduce PSRT, a method that replaces the model's reasoning process with a Prefilled Safe Reasoning Trace, thereby significantly reducing the inference cost of LRMs. Concretely, PSRT prefills "safe reasoning virtual tokens" from a constructed dataset and learns over their continuous embeddings. With the aid of indicator tokens, PSRT enables harmful-query detection in a single forward pass while preserving the classification effectiveness of LRMs. We evaluate PSRT on 7 models, 13 datasets, and 8 jailbreak methods. In terms of efficiency, PSRT completely removes the overhead of generating reasoning tokens during inference. In terms of classification performance, PSRT achieves nearly identical accuracy, with only a minor average F1 drop of 0.015 across 7 models and 5 datasets.

Training deep generative models like Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) is often hindered by the need to backpropagate gradients through the stochastic sampling of their latent variables, a process that inherently introduces estimation variance, which can slow convergence and degrade performance. In this paper, we propose a new perspective that sidesteps this problem, which we call Silent Gradients. Instead of improving stochastic estimators, we leverage specific decoder architectures to analytically compute the expected ELBO, yielding a gradient with zero variance. We first provide a theoretical foundation for this method and demonstrate its superiority over existing estimators in a controlled setting with a linear decoder. To generalize our approach for practical use with complex, expressive decoders, we introduce a novel training dynamic that uses the exact, zero-variance gradient to guide the early stages of encoder training before annealing to a standard stochastic estimator. Our experiments show that this technique consistently improves the performance of established baselines, including reparameterization, Gumbel-Softmax, and REINFORCE, across multiple datasets. This work opens a new direction for training generative models by combining the stability of analytical computation with the expressiveness of deep, nonlinear architecture.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general and unified computational framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various inference tasks (e.g., computing marginal probabilities). Towards enabling such reasoning capabilities in complex real-world tasks, Liu et al. (2022) propose to distill knowledge (through latent variable assignments) from less tractable but more expressive deep generative models. However, it is still unclear what factors make this distillation work well. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically discover that the performance of a PC can exceed that of its teacher model. Therefore, instead of performing distillation from the most expressive deep generative model, we study what properties the teacher model and the PC should have in order to achieve good distillation performance. This leads to a generic algorithmic improvement as well as other data-type-specific ones over the existing latent variable distillation pipeline. Empirically, we outperform SoTA TPMs by a large margin on challenging image modeling benchmarks. In particular, on ImageNet32, PCs achieve 4.06 bits-per-dimension, which is only 0.34 behind variational diffusion models (Kingma et al., 2021).

While 4-bit quantization has emerged as a memory-optimal choice for non-reasoning models and zero-shot tasks across scales, we show that this universal prescription fails for reasoning models, where the KV cache rather than model size can dominate memory. Through systematic experiments across 1,700 inference scenarios on AIME25 and GPQA-Diamond, we find a scale-dependent trade-off: models with an effective size below 8-bit 4B parameters achieve better accuracy by allocating memory to more weights rather than longer generation, while larger models achieve better accuracy by allocating memory to longer generations. This scale threshold also determines when parallel scaling becomes memory-efficient and whether KV cache eviction outperforms KV quantization. Our findings show that memory optimization for LLMs cannot be scale-agnostic, while providing principled guidelines: for small reasoning models, prioritize model capacity over test-time compute, while for larger ones, maximize test-time compute. Our results suggest that optimizing reasoning models for deployment requires fundamentally different strategies from those established for non-reasoning models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased remarkable capabilities across various domains. Accompanying the evolving capabilities and expanding deployment scenarios of LLMs, their deployment challenges escalate due to their sheer scale and the advanced yet complex activation designs prevalent in notable model series, such as Llama, Gemma, and Mistral. These challenges have become particularly pronounced in resource-constrained deployment scenarios, where mitigating inference efficiency bottlenecks is imperative. Among various recent efforts, activation approximation has emerged as a promising avenue for pursuing inference efficiency, sometimes considered indispensable in applications such as private inference. Despite achieving substantial speedups with minimal impact on utility, even appearing sound and practical for real-world deployment, the safety implications of activation approximations remain unclear. In this work, we fill this critical gap in LLM safety by conducting the first systematic safety evaluation of activation approximations. Our safety vetting spans seven sota techniques across three popular categories, revealing consistent safety degradation across ten safety-aligned LLMs.

Privacy concerns in client-server machine learning have given rise to private inference (PI), where neural inference occurs directly on encrypted inputs. PI protects clients' personal data and the server's intellectual property. A common practice in PI is to use garbled circuits to compute nonlinear functions privately, namely ReLUs. However, garbled circuits suffer from high storage, bandwidth, and latency costs. To mitigate these issues, PI-friendly polynomial activation functions have been employed to replace ReLU. In this work, we ask: Is it feasible to substitute all ReLUs with low-degree polynomial activation functions for building deep, privacy-friendly neural networks? We explore this question by analyzing the challenges of substituting ReLUs with polynomials, starting with simple drop-and-replace solutions to novel, more involved replace-and-retrain strategies. We examine the limitations of each method and provide commentary on the use of polynomial activation functions for PI. We find all evaluated solutions suffer from the escaping activation problem: forward activation values inevitably begin to expand at an exponential rate away from stable regions of the polynomials, which leads to exploding values (NaNs) or poor approximations.

The growth of the Machine-Learning-As-A-Service (MLaaS) market has highlighted clients' data privacy and security issues. Private inference (PI) techniques using cryptographic primitives offer a solution but often have high computation and communication costs, particularly with non-linear operators like ReLU. Many attempts to reduce ReLU operations exist, but they may need heuristic threshold selection or cause substantial accuracy loss. This work introduces AutoReP, a gradient-based approach to lessen non-linear operators and alleviate these issues. It automates the selection of ReLU and polynomial functions to speed up PI applications and introduces distribution-aware polynomial approximation (DaPa) to maintain model expressivity while accurately approximating ReLUs. Our experimental results demonstrate significant accuracy improvements of 6.12% (94.31%, 12.9K ReLU budget, CIFAR-10), 8.39% (74.92%, 12.9K ReLU budget, CIFAR-100), and 9.45% (63.69%, 55K ReLU budget, Tiny-ImageNet) over current state-of-the-art methods, e.g., SNL. Morever, AutoReP is applied to EfficientNet-B2 on ImageNet dataset, and achieved 75.55% accuracy with 176.1 times ReLU budget reduction.

Accelerated magnetic resonance (MR) imaging attempts to reduce acquisition time by collecting data below the Nyquist rate. As an ill-posed inverse problem, many plausible solutions exist, yet the majority of deep learning approaches generate only a single solution. We instead focus on sampling from the posterior distribution, which provides more comprehensive information for downstream inference tasks. To do this, we design a novel conditional normalizing flow (CNF) that infers the signal component in the measurement operator's nullspace, which is later combined with measured data to form complete images. Using fastMRI brain and knee data, we demonstrate fast inference and accuracy that surpasses recent posterior sampling techniques for MRI. Code is available at https://github.com/jwen307/mri_cnf/

Backpropagation (BP) is the most successful and widely used algorithm in deep learning. However, the computations required by BP are challenging to reconcile with known neurobiology. This difficulty has stimulated interest in more biologically plausible alternatives to BP. One such algorithm is the inference learning algorithm (IL). IL has close connections to neurobiological models of cortical function and has achieved equal performance to BP on supervised learning and auto-associative tasks. In contrast to BP, however, the mathematical foundations of IL are not well-understood. Here, we develop a novel theoretical framework for IL. Our main result is that IL closely approximates an optimization method known as implicit stochastic gradient descent (implicit SGD), which is distinct from the explicit SGD implemented by BP. Our results further show how the standard implementation of IL can be altered to better approximate implicit SGD. Our novel implementation considerably improves the stability of IL across learning rates, which is consistent with our theory, as a key property of implicit SGD is its stability. We provide extensive simulation results that further support our theoretical interpretations and also demonstrate IL achieves quicker convergence when trained with small mini-batches while matching the performance of BP for large mini-batches.

Simulation-free methods for training continuous-time generative models construct probability paths that go between noise distributions and individual data samples. Recent works, such as Flow Matching, derived paths that are optimal for each data sample. However, these algorithms rely on independent data and noise samples, and do not exploit underlying structure in the data distribution for constructing probability paths. We propose Multisample Flow Matching, a more general framework that uses non-trivial couplings between data and noise samples while satisfying the correct marginal constraints. At very small overhead costs, this generalization allows us to (i) reduce gradient variance during training, (ii) obtain straighter flows for the learned vector field, which allows us to generate high-quality samples using fewer function evaluations, and (iii) obtain transport maps with lower cost in high dimensions, which has applications beyond generative modeling. Importantly, we do so in a completely simulation-free manner with a simple minimization objective. We show that our proposed methods improve sample consistency on downsampled ImageNet data sets, and lead to better low-cost sample generation.