Daily Papers

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

We present EmerNeRF, a simple yet powerful approach for learning spatial-temporal representations of dynamic driving scenes. Grounded in neural fields, EmerNeRF simultaneously captures scene geometry, appearance, motion, and semantics via self-bootstrapping. EmerNeRF hinges upon two core components: First, it stratifies scenes into static and dynamic fields. This decomposition emerges purely from self-supervision, enabling our model to learn from general, in-the-wild data sources. Second, EmerNeRF parameterizes an induced flow field from the dynamic field and uses this flow field to further aggregate multi-frame features, amplifying the rendering precision of dynamic objects. Coupling these three fields (static, dynamic, and flow) enables EmerNeRF to represent highly-dynamic scenes self-sufficiently, without relying on ground truth object annotations or pre-trained models for dynamic object segmentation or optical flow estimation. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in sensor simulation, significantly outperforming previous methods when reconstructing static (+2.93 PSNR) and dynamic (+3.70 PSNR) scenes. In addition, to bolster EmerNeRF's semantic generalization, we lift 2D visual foundation model features into 4D space-time and address a general positional bias in modern Transformers, significantly boosting 3D perception performance (e.g., 37.50% relative improvement in occupancy prediction accuracy on average). Finally, we construct a diverse and challenging 120-sequence dataset to benchmark neural fields under extreme and highly-dynamic settings.

Understanding where people go after visiting one business is crucial for urban planning, retail analytics, and location-based services. However, predicting these co-visitation patterns across millions of venues remains challenging due to extreme data sparsity and the complex interplay between spatial proximity and business relationships. Traditional approaches using only geographic distance fail to capture why coffee shops attract different customer flows than fine dining restaurants, even when co-located. We introduce NAICS-aware GraphSAGE, a novel graph neural network that integrates business taxonomy knowledge through learnable embeddings to predict population-scale co-visitation patterns. Our key insight is that business semantics, captured through detailed industry codes, provide crucial signals that pure spatial models cannot explain. The approach scales to massive datasets (4.2 billion potential venue pairs) through efficient state-wise decomposition while combining spatial, temporal, and socioeconomic features in an end-to-end framework. Evaluated on our POI-Graph dataset comprising 94.9 million co-visitation records across 92,486 brands and 48 US states, our method achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines: the R-squared value increases from 0.243 to 0.625 (a 157 percent improvement), with strong gains in ranking quality (32 percent improvement in NDCG at 10).