Daily Papers

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) must resolve conflicts when different modalities provide contradictory information, a process we term modality following. Prior work measured this behavior only with coarse dataset-level statistics, overlooking the influence of model's confidence in unimodal reasoning. In this paper, we introduce a new framework that decomposes modality following into two fundamental factors: relative reasoning uncertainty (the case-specific confidence gap between unimodal predictions) and inherent modality preference( a model's stable bias when uncertainties are balanced). To validate this framework, we construct a controllable dataset that systematically varies the reasoning difficulty of visual and textual inputs. Using entropy as a fine-grained uncertainty metric, we uncover a universal law: the probability of following a modality decreases monotonically as its relative uncertainty increases. At the relative difficulty level where the model tends to follow both modalities with comparable probability what we call the balance point, a practical indicator of the model's inherent preference. Unlike traditional macro-level ratios, this measure offers a more principled and less confounded way to characterize modality bias, disentangling it from unimodal capabilities and dataset artifacts. Further, by probing layer-wise predictions, we reveal the internal mechanism of oscillation: in ambiguous regions near the balance point, models vacillate between modalities across layers, explaining externally observed indecision. Together, these findings establish relative uncertainty and inherent preference as the two governing principles of modality following, offering both a quantitative framework and mechanistic insight into how MLLMs resolve conflicting information.

We present a simplified, task-agnostic multi-modal pre-training approach that can accept either video or text input, or both for a variety of end tasks. Existing pre-training are task-specific by adopting either a single cross-modal encoder that requires both modalities, limiting their use for retrieval-style end tasks or more complex multitask learning with two unimodal encoders, limiting early cross-modal fusion. We instead introduce new pretraining masking schemes that better mix across modalities (e.g. by forcing masks for text to predict the closest video embeddings) while also maintaining separability (e.g. unimodal predictions are sometimes required, without using all the input). Experimental results show strong performance across a wider range of tasks than any previous methods, often outperforming task-specific pre-training. Code is made available at https://github.com/pytorch/fairseq/tree/main/examples/MMPT.

Different from a unimodal model whose input is from a single modality, the input (called multi-modal input) of a multi-modal model is from multiple modalities such as image, 3D points, audio, text, etc. Similar to unimodal models, many existing studies show that a multi-modal model is also vulnerable to adversarial perturbation, where an attacker could add small perturbation to all modalities of a multi-modal input such that the multi-modal model makes incorrect predictions for it. Existing certified defenses are mostly designed for unimodal models, which achieve sub-optimal certified robustness guarantees when extended to multi-modal models as shown in our experimental results. In our work, we propose MMCert, the first certified defense against adversarial attacks to a multi-modal model. We derive a lower bound on the performance of our MMCert under arbitrary adversarial attacks with bounded perturbations to both modalities (e.g., in the context of auto-driving, we bound the number of changed pixels in both RGB image and depth image). We evaluate our MMCert using two benchmark datasets: one for the multi-modal road segmentation task and the other for the multi-modal emotion recognition task. Moreover, we compare our MMCert with a state-of-the-art certified defense extended from unimodal models. Our experimental results show that our MMCert outperforms the baseline.

Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

Time series forecasting is a foundational task across domains, such as finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. While recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalisation through large-scale pretraining, existing models operate predominantly in a unimodal setting, ignoring the rich multimodal context, such as visual and textual signals, that often accompanies time series data in real-world scenarios. This paper introduces a novel parameter-efficient multimodal framework, UniCast, that extends TSFMs to jointly leverage time series, vision, and text modalities for enhanced forecasting performance. Our method integrates modality-specific embeddings from pretrained Vision and Text Encoders with a frozen TSFM via soft prompt tuning, enabling efficient adaptation with minimal parameter updates. This design not only preserves the generalisation strength of the foundation model but also enables effective cross-modal interaction. Extensive experiments across diverse time-series forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that UniCast consistently and significantly outperforms all existing TSFM baselines. The findings highlight the critical role of multimodal context in advancing the next generation of general-purpose time series forecasters.

Deep multimodal learning has shown remarkable success by leveraging contrastive learning to capture explicit one-to-one relations across modalities. However, real-world data often exhibits shared relations beyond simple pairwise associations. We propose M3CoL, a Multimodal Mixup Contrastive Learning approach to capture nuanced shared relations inherent in multimodal data. Our key contribution is a Mixup-based contrastive loss that learns robust representations by aligning mixed samples from one modality with their corresponding samples from other modalities thereby capturing shared relations between them. For multimodal classification tasks, we introduce a framework that integrates a fusion module with unimodal prediction modules for auxiliary supervision during training, complemented by our proposed Mixup-based contrastive loss. Through extensive experiments on diverse datasets (N24News, ROSMAP, BRCA, and Food-101), we demonstrate that M3CoL effectively captures shared multimodal relations and generalizes across domains. It outperforms state-of-the-art methods on N24News, ROSMAP, and BRCA, while achieving comparable performance on Food-101. Our work highlights the significance of learning shared relations for robust multimodal learning, opening up promising avenues for future research. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/RaghavSinghal10/M3CoL.

This work proposes a new challenge set for multimodal classification, focusing on detecting hate speech in multimodal memes. It is constructed such that unimodal models struggle and only multimodal models can succeed: difficult examples ("benign confounders") are added to the dataset to make it hard to rely on unimodal signals. The task requires subtle reasoning, yet is straightforward to evaluate as a binary classification problem. We provide baseline performance numbers for unimodal models, as well as for multimodal models with various degrees of sophistication. We find that state-of-the-art methods perform poorly compared to humans (64.73% vs. 84.7% accuracy), illustrating the difficulty of the task and highlighting the challenge that this important problem poses to the community.

In the era of Large Language Models (LLMs), tremendous strides have been made in the field of multimodal understanding. However, existing advanced algorithms are limited to effectively utilizing the immense representation capabilities and rich world knowledge inherent to these large pre-trained models, and the beneficial connections among tasks within the context of text-rich scenarios have not been sufficiently explored. In this work, we introduce UniDoc, a novel multimodal model equipped with text detection and recognition capabilities, which are deficient in existing approaches. Moreover, UniDoc capitalizes on the beneficial interactions among tasks to enhance the performance of each individual task. To implement UniDoc, we perform unified multimodal instruct tuning on the contributed large-scale instruction following datasets. Quantitative and qualitative experimental results show that UniDoc sets state-of-the-art scores across multiple challenging benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large multimodal model capable of simultaneous text detection, recognition, spotting, and understanding.

The task of Detecting and Grounding Multi-Modal Media Manipulation (DGM^4) is a branch of misinformation detection. Unlike traditional binary classification, it includes complex subtasks such as forgery content localization and forgery method classification. Consider that existing methods are often limited in performance due to neglecting the erroneous interference caused by unreliable unimodal data and failing to establish comprehensive forgery supervision for mining fine-grained tampering traces. In this paper, we present a Fine-grained Multiple Supervisory (FMS) network, which incorporates modality reliability supervision, unimodal internal supervision and cross-modal supervision to provide comprehensive guidance for DGM^4 detection. For modality reliability supervision, we propose the Multimodal Decision Supervised Correction (MDSC) module. It leverages unimodal weak supervision to correct the multi-modal decision-making process. For unimodal internal supervision, we propose the Unimodal Forgery Mining Reinforcement (UFMR) module. It amplifies the disparity between real and fake information within unimodal modality from both feature-level and sample-level perspectives. For cross-modal supervision, we propose the Multimodal Forgery Alignment Reasoning (MFAR) module. It utilizes soft-attention interactions to achieve cross-modal feature perception from both consistency and inconsistency perspectives, where we also design the interaction constraints to ensure the interaction quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our FMS compared to state-of-the-art methods.

The integration of multimodal data including pathology images and gene profiles is widely applied in precise survival prediction. Despite recent advances in multimodal survival models, collecting complete modalities for multimodal fusion still poses a significant challenge, hindering their application in clinical settings. Current approaches tackling incomplete modalities often fall short, as they typically compensate for only a limited part of the knowledge of missing modalities. To address this issue, we propose a Distilled Prompt Learning framework (DisPro) to utilize the strong robustness of Large Language Models (LLMs) to missing modalities, which employs two-stage prompting for compensation of comprehensive information for missing modalities. In the first stage, Unimodal Prompting (UniPro) distills the knowledge distribution of each modality, preparing for supplementing modality-specific knowledge of the missing modality in the subsequent stage. In the second stage, Multimodal Prompting (MultiPro) leverages available modalities as prompts for LLMs to infer the missing modality, which provides modality-common information. Simultaneously, the unimodal knowledge acquired in the first stage is injected into multimodal inference to compensate for the modality-specific knowledge of the missing modality. Extensive experiments covering various missing scenarios demonstrated the superiority of the proposed method. The code is available at https://github.com/Innse/DisPro.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made the ambitious quest for generalist agents significantly far from being a fantasy. A key hurdle for building such general models is the diversity and heterogeneity of tasks and modalities. A promising solution is unification, allowing the support of a myriad of tasks and modalities within one unified framework. While few large models (e.g., Flamingo (Alayrac et al., 2022), trained on massive datasets, can support more than two modalities, current small to mid-scale unified models are still limited to 2 modalities, usually image-text or video-text. The question that we ask is: is it possible to build efficiently a unified model that can support all modalities? To answer this, we propose UnIVAL, a step further towards this ambitious goal. Without relying on fancy datasets sizes or models with billions of parameters, the ~ 0.25B parameter UnIVAL model goes beyond two modalities and unifies text, images, video, and audio into a single model. Our model is efficiently pretrained on many tasks, based on task balancing and multimodal curriculum learning. UnIVAL shows competitive performance to existing state-of-the-art approaches, across image and video-text tasks. The feature representations learned from image and video-text modalities, allows the model to achieve competitive performance when finetuned on audio-text tasks, despite not being pretrained on audio. Thanks to the unified model, we propose a novel study on multimodal model merging via weight interpolation of models trained on different multimodal tasks, showing their benefits in particular for out-of-distribution generalization. Finally, we motivate unification by showing the synergy between tasks. The model weights and code are released here: https://github.com/mshukor/UnIVAL.

Although humans engaged in face-to-face conversation simultaneously communicate both verbally and non-verbally, methods for joint and unified synthesis of speech audio and co-speech 3D gesture motion from text are a new and emerging field. These technologies hold great promise for more human-like, efficient, expressive, and robust synthetic communication, but are currently held back by the lack of suitably large datasets, as existing methods are trained on parallel data from all constituent modalities. Inspired by student-teacher methods, we propose a straightforward solution to the data shortage, by simply synthesising additional training material. Specifically, we use unimodal synthesis models trained on large datasets to create multimodal (but synthetic) parallel training data, and then pre-train a joint synthesis model on that material. In addition, we propose a new synthesis architecture that adds better and more controllable prosody modelling to the state-of-the-art method in the field. Our results confirm that pre-training on large amounts of synthetic data improves the quality of both the speech and the motion synthesised by the multimodal model, with the proposed architecture yielding further benefits when pre-trained on the synthetic data. See https://shivammehta25.github.io/MAGI/ for example output.

Learning holistic computational representations in physical, chemical or biological systems requires the ability to process information from different distributions and modalities within the same model. Thus, the demand for multimodal machine learning models has sharply risen for modalities that go beyond vision and language, such as sequences, graphs, time series, or tabular data. While there are many available multimodal fusion and alignment approaches, most of them require end-to-end training, scale quadratically with the number of modalities, cannot handle cases of high modality imbalance in the training set, or are highly topology-specific, making them too restrictive for many biomedical learning tasks. This paper presents Multimodal Lego (MM-Lego), a modular and general-purpose fusion and model merging framework to turn any set of encoders into a competitive multimodal model with no or minimal fine-tuning. We achieve this by introducing a wrapper for unimodal encoders that enforces lightweight dimensionality assumptions between modalities and harmonises their representations by learning features in the frequency domain to enable model merging with little signal interference. We show that MM-Lego 1) can be used as a model merging method which achieves competitive performance with end-to-end fusion models without any fine-tuning, 2) can operate on any unimodal encoder, and 3) is a model fusion method that, with minimal fine-tuning, achieves state-of-the-art results on six benchmarked multimodal biomedical tasks.

Different modalities hold considerable gaps in optimization trajectories, including speeds and paths, which lead to modality laziness and modality clash when jointly training multimodal models, resulting in insufficient and imbalanced multimodal learning. Existing methods focus on enforcing the weak modality by adding modality-specific optimization objectives, aligning their optimization speeds, or decomposing multimodal learning to enhance unimodal learning. These methods fail to achieve both unimodal sufficiency and multimodal balance. In this paper, we, for the first time, address both concerns by proposing multimodal Data Remixing, including decoupling multimodal data and filtering hard samples for each modality to mitigate modality imbalance; and then batch-level reassembling to align the gradient directions and avoid cross-modal interference, thus enhancing unimodal learning sufficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that our method can be seamlessly integrated with existing approaches, improving accuracy by approximately 6.50%uparrow on CREMAD and 3.41%uparrow on Kinetic-Sounds, without training set expansion or additional computational overhead during inference. The source code is available at https://github.com/MatthewMaxy/Remix_ICML2025.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

Multimodal learning typically relies on the assumption that all modalities are fully available during both the training and inference phases. However, in real-world scenarios, consistently acquiring complete multimodal data presents significant challenges due to various factors. This often leads to the issue of missing modalities, where data for certain modalities are absent, posing considerable obstacles not only for the availability of multimodal pretrained models but also for their fine-tuning and the preservation of robustness in downstream tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework integrating parameter-efficient fine-tuning of unimodal pretrained models with a self-supervised joint-embedding learning method. This framework enables the model to predict the embedding of a missing modality in the representation space during inference. Our method effectively predicts the missing embedding through prompt tuning, leveraging information from available modalities. We evaluate our approach on several multimodal benchmark datasets and demonstrate its effectiveness and robustness across various scenarios of missing modalities.

We use (multi)modal deep neural networks (DNNs) to probe for sites of multimodal integration in the human brain by predicting stereoencephalography (SEEG) recordings taken while human subjects watched movies. We operationalize sites of multimodal integration as regions where a multimodal vision-language model predicts recordings better than unimodal language, unimodal vision, or linearly-integrated language-vision models. Our target DNN models span different architectures (e.g., convolutional networks and transformers) and multimodal training techniques (e.g., cross-attention and contrastive learning). As a key enabling step, we first demonstrate that trained vision and language models systematically outperform their randomly initialized counterparts in their ability to predict SEEG signals. We then compare unimodal and multimodal models against one another. Because our target DNN models often have different architectures, number of parameters, and training sets (possibly obscuring those differences attributable to integration), we carry out a controlled comparison of two models (SLIP and SimCLR), which keep all of these attributes the same aside from input modality. Using this approach, we identify a sizable number of neural sites (on average 141 out of 1090 total sites or 12.94%) and brain regions where multimodal integration seems to occur. Additionally, we find that among the variants of multimodal training techniques we assess, CLIP-style training is the best suited for downstream prediction of the neural activity in these sites.

Despite significant strides in multimodal tasks, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are plagued by the critical issue of hallucination. The reliable detection of such hallucinations in MLLMs has, therefore, become a vital aspect of model evaluation and the safeguarding of practical application deployment. Prior research in this domain has been constrained by a narrow focus on singular tasks, an inadequate range of hallucination categories addressed, and a lack of detailed granularity. In response to these challenges, our work expands the investigative horizons of hallucination detection. We present a novel meta-evaluation benchmark, MHaluBench, meticulously crafted to facilitate the evaluation of advancements in hallucination detection methods. Additionally, we unveil a novel unified multimodal hallucination detection framework, UNIHD, which leverages a suite of auxiliary tools to validate the occurrence of hallucinations robustly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of UNIHD through meticulous evaluation and comprehensive analysis. We also provide strategic insights on the application of specific tools for addressing various categories of hallucinations.

Prompt tuning, a parameter- and data-efficient transfer learning paradigm that tunes only a small number of parameters in a model's input space, has become a trend in the vision community since the emergence of large vision-language models like CLIP. We present a systematic study on two representative prompt tuning methods, namely text prompt tuning and visual prompt tuning. A major finding is that none of the unimodal prompt tuning methods performs consistently well: text prompt tuning fails on data with high intra-class visual variances while visual prompt tuning cannot handle low inter-class variances. To combine the best from both worlds, we propose a simple approach called Unified Prompt Tuning (UPT), which essentially learns a tiny neural network to jointly optimize prompts across different modalities. Extensive experiments on over 11 vision datasets show that UPT achieves a better trade-off than the unimodal counterparts on few-shot learning benchmarks, as well as on domain generalization benchmarks. Code and models will be released to facilitate future research.

We investigate the emergence of intuitive physics understanding in general-purpose deep neural network models trained to predict masked regions in natural videos. Leveraging the violation-of-expectation framework, we find that video prediction models trained to predict outcomes in a learned representation space demonstrate an understanding of various intuitive physics properties, such as object permanence and shape consistency. In contrast, video prediction in pixel space and multimodal large language models, which reason through text, achieve performance closer to chance. Our comparisons of these architectures reveal that jointly learning an abstract representation space while predicting missing parts of sensory input, akin to predictive coding, is sufficient to acquire an understanding of intuitive physics, and that even models trained on one week of unique video achieve above chance performance. This challenges the idea that core knowledge -- a set of innate systems to help understand the world -- needs to be hardwired to develop an understanding of intuitive physics.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Recent advancements in large multimodal models (LMMs) have significantly enhanced performance across diverse tasks, with ongoing efforts to further integrate additional modalities such as video and audio. However, most existing LMMs remain vulnerable to hallucinations, the discrepancy between the factual multimodal input and the generated textual output, which has limited their applicability in various real-world scenarios. This paper presents the first systematic investigation of hallucinations in LMMs involving the three most common modalities: language, visual, and audio. Our study reveals two key contributors to hallucinations: overreliance on unimodal priors and spurious inter-modality correlations. To address these challenges, we introduce the benchmark The Curse of Multi-Modalities (CMM), which comprehensively evaluates hallucinations in LMMs, providing a detailed analysis of their underlying issues. Our findings highlight key vulnerabilities, including imbalances in modality integration and biases from training data, underscoring the need for balanced cross-modal learning and enhanced hallucination mitigation strategies. Based on our observations and findings, we suggest potential research directions that could enhance the reliability of LMMs.

Advances in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) intensify concerns about data privacy, making Machine Unlearning (MU), the selective removal of learned information, a critical necessity. However, existing MU benchmarks for MLLMs are limited by a lack of image diversity, potential inaccuracies, and insufficient evaluation scenarios, which fail to capture the complexity of real-world applications. To facilitate the development of MLLMs unlearning and alleviate the aforementioned limitations, we introduce OFFSIDE, a novel benchmark for evaluating misinformation unlearning in MLLMs based on football transfer rumors. This manually curated dataset contains 15.68K records for 80 players, providing a comprehensive framework with four test sets to assess forgetting efficacy, generalization, utility, and robustness. OFFSIDE supports advanced settings like selective unlearning and corrective relearning, and crucially, unimodal unlearning (forgetting only text data). Our extensive evaluation of multiple baselines reveals key findings: (1) Unimodal methods (erasing text-based knowledge) fail on multimodal rumors; (2) Unlearning efficacy is largely driven by catastrophic forgetting; (3) All methods struggle with "visual rumors" (rumors appear in the image); (4) The unlearned rumors can be easily recovered and (5) All methods are vulnerable to prompt attacks. These results expose significant vulnerabilities in current approaches, highlighting the need for more robust multimodal unlearning solutions. The code is available at https://github.com/zh121800/OFFSIDE{https://github.com/zh121800/OFFSIDE}.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have so far impressed the world, with unprecedented capabilities that emerge in models at large scales. On the vision side, transformer models (i.e., ViT) are following the same trend, achieving the best performance on challenging benchmarks. With the abundance of such unimodal models, a natural question arises; do we need also to follow this trend to tackle multimodal tasks? In this work, we propose to rather direct effort to efficient adaptations of existing models, and propose to augment Language Models with perception. Existing approaches for adapting pretrained models for vision-language tasks still rely on several key components that hinder their efficiency. In particular, they still train a large number of parameters, rely on large multimodal pretraining, use encoders (e.g., CLIP) trained on huge image-text datasets, and add significant inference overhead. In addition, most of these approaches have focused on Zero-Shot and In Context Learning, with little to no effort on direct finetuning. We investigate the minimal computational effort needed to adapt unimodal models for multimodal tasks and propose a new challenging setup, alongside different approaches, that efficiently adapts unimodal pretrained models. We show that by freezing more than 99\% of total parameters, training only one linear projection layer, and prepending only one trainable token, our approach (dubbed eP-ALM) significantly outperforms other baselines on VQA and Captioning across Image, Video, and Audio modalities, following the proposed setup. The code will be available here: https://github.com/mshukor/eP-ALM.

Unified models (UniMs) for multimodal understanding and generation have recently received much attention in the area of vision and language. Existing UniMs are designed to simultaneously learn both multimodal understanding and generation capabilities, demanding substantial computational resources, and often struggle to generate interleaved text-image. We present ARMOR, a resource-efficient and pure autoregressive framework that achieves both understanding and generation by fine-tuning existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs). Specifically, ARMOR extends existing MLLMs from three perspectives: (1) For model architecture, an asymmetric encoder-decoder architecture with a forward-switching mechanism is introduced to unify embedding space integrating textual and visual modalities for enabling natural text-image interleaved generation with minimal computational overhead. (2) For training data, a meticulously curated, high-quality interleaved dataset is collected for fine-tuning MLLMs. (3) For the training algorithm, we propose a ``what or how to generate" algorithm to empower existing MLLMs with multimodal generation capabilities while preserving their multimodal understanding capabilities, through three progressive training stages based on the collected dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that ARMOR upgrades existing MLLMs to UniMs with promising image generation capabilities, using limited training resources. Our code will be released soon at https://armor.github.io.

Training Transformer-based models demands a large amount of data, while obtaining aligned and labelled data in multimodality is rather cost-demanding, especially for audio-visual speech recognition (AVSR). Thus it makes a lot of sense to make use of unlabelled unimodal data. On the other side, although the effectiveness of large-scale self-supervised learning is well established in both audio and visual modalities, how to integrate those pre-trained models into a multimodal scenario remains underexplored. In this work, we successfully leverage unimodal self-supervised learning to promote the multimodal AVSR. In particular, audio and visual front-ends are trained on large-scale unimodal datasets, then we integrate components of both front-ends into a larger multimodal framework which learns to recognize parallel audio-visual data into characters through a combination of CTC and seq2seq decoding. We show that both components inherited from unimodal self-supervised learning cooperate well, resulting in that the multimodal framework yields competitive results through fine-tuning. Our model is experimentally validated on both word-level and sentence-level tasks. Especially, even without an external language model, our proposed model raises the state-of-the-art performances on the widely accepted Lip Reading Sentences 2 (LRS2) dataset by a large margin, with a relative improvement of 30%.

Multimodal generative models that can understand and generate across multiple modalities are dominated by autoregressive (AR) approaches, which process tokens sequentially from left to right, or top to bottom. These models jointly handle images, text, video, and audio for various tasks such as image captioning, question answering, and image generation. In this work, we explore discrete diffusion models as a unified generative formulation in the joint text and image domain, building upon their recent success in text generation. Discrete diffusion models offer several advantages over AR models, including improved control over quality versus diversity of generated samples, the ability to perform joint multimodal inpainting (across both text and image domains), and greater controllability in generation through guidance. Leveraging these benefits, we present the first Unified Multimodal Discrete Diffusion (UniDisc) model which is capable of jointly understanding and generating text and images for a variety of downstream tasks. We compare UniDisc to multimodal AR models, performing a scaling analysis and demonstrating that UniDisc outperforms them in terms of both performance and inference-time compute, enhanced controllability, editability, inpainting, and flexible trade-off between inference time and generation quality. Code and additional visualizations are available at https://unidisc.github.io.

Traditional multimodal learners find unified representations for tasks like visual question answering, but rely heavily on paired datasets. However, an overlooked yet potentially powerful question is: can one leverage auxiliary unpaired multimodal data to directly enhance representation learning in a target modality? We introduce UML: Unpaired Multimodal Learner, a modality-agnostic training paradigm in which a single model alternately processes inputs from different modalities while sharing parameters across them. This design exploits the assumption that different modalities are projections of a shared underlying reality, allowing the model to benefit from cross-modal structure without requiring explicit pairs. Theoretically, under linear data-generating assumptions, we show that unpaired auxiliary data can yield representations strictly more informative about the data-generating process than unimodal training. Empirically, we show that using unpaired data from auxiliary modalities -- such as text, audio, or images -- consistently improves downstream performance across diverse unimodal targets such as image and audio. Our project page: https://unpaired-multimodal.github.io/

The recent success of large foundation models in artificial intelligence has prompted the emergence of chemical pre-trained models. Despite the growing interest in large molecular pre-trained models that provide informative representations for downstream tasks, attempts for multimodal pre-training approaches on the molecule domain were limited. To address this, we present a novel multimodal molecular pre-trained model that incorporates the modalities of structure and biochemical properties, drawing inspiration from recent advances in multimodal learning techniques. Our proposed model pipeline of data handling and training objectives aligns the structure/property features in a common embedding space, which enables the model to regard bidirectional information between the molecules' structure and properties. These contributions emerge synergistic knowledge, allowing us to tackle both multimodal and unimodal downstream tasks through a single model. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our model shows remarkable capabilities in solving various meaningful chemical challenges, including conditional molecule generation, property prediction, molecule classification, and reaction prediction.

This paper proposes a unified diffusion framework (dubbed UniDiffuser) to fit all distributions relevant to a set of multi-modal data in one model. Our key insight is -- learning diffusion models for marginal, conditional, and joint distributions can be unified as predicting the noise in the perturbed data, where the perturbation levels (i.e. timesteps) can be different for different modalities. Inspired by the unified view, UniDiffuser learns all distributions simultaneously with a minimal modification to the original diffusion model -- perturbs data in all modalities instead of a single modality, inputs individual timesteps in different modalities, and predicts the noise of all modalities instead of a single modality. UniDiffuser is parameterized by a transformer for diffusion models to handle input types of different modalities. Implemented on large-scale paired image-text data, UniDiffuser is able to perform image, text, text-to-image, image-to-text, and image-text pair generation by setting proper timesteps without additional overhead. In particular, UniDiffuser is able to produce perceptually realistic samples in all tasks and its quantitative results (e.g., the FID and CLIP score) are not only superior to existing general-purpose models but also comparable to the bespoken models (e.g., Stable Diffusion and DALL-E 2) in representative tasks (e.g., text-to-image generation).

We introduce OneCAT, a unified multimodal model that seamlessly integrates understanding, generation, and editing within a novel, pure decoder-only transformer architecture. Our framework uniquely eliminates the need for external components such as Vision Transformers (ViT) or vision tokenizer during inference, leading to significant efficiency gains, especially for high-resolution inputs. This is achieved through a modality-specific Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) structure trained with a single autoregressive (AR) objective, which also natively supports dynamic resolutions. Furthermore, we pioneer a multi-scale visual autoregressive mechanism within the Large Language Model (LLM) that drastically reduces decoding steps compared to diffusion-based methods while maintaining state-of-the-art performance. Our findings demonstrate the powerful potential of pure autoregressive modeling as a sufficient and elegant foundation for unified multimodal intelligence. As a result, OneCAT sets a new performance standard, outperforming existing open-source unified multimodal models across benchmarks for multimodal generation, editing, and understanding.

In many machine learning systems that jointly learn from multiple modalities, a core research question is to understand the nature of multimodal interactions: the emergence of new task-relevant information during learning from both modalities that was not present in either alone. We study this challenge of interaction quantification in a semi-supervised setting with only labeled unimodal data and naturally co-occurring multimodal data (e.g., unlabeled images and captions, video and corresponding audio) but when labeling them is time-consuming. Using a precise information-theoretic definition of interactions, our key contributions are the derivations of lower and upper bounds to quantify the amount of multimodal interactions in this semi-supervised setting. We propose two lower bounds based on the amount of shared information between modalities and the disagreement between separately trained unimodal classifiers, and derive an upper bound through connections to approximate algorithms for min-entropy couplings. We validate these estimated bounds and show how they accurately track true interactions. Finally, two semi-supervised multimodal applications are explored based on these theoretical results: (1) analyzing the relationship between multimodal performance and estimated interactions, and (2) self-supervised learning that embraces disagreement between modalities beyond agreement as is typically done.

The goal of multimodal alignment is to learn a single latent space that is shared between multimodal inputs. The most powerful models in this space have been trained using massive datasets of paired inputs and large-scale computational resources, making them prohibitively expensive to train in many practical scenarios. We surmise that existing unimodal encoders pre-trained on large amounts of unimodal data should provide an effective bootstrap to create multimodal models from unimodal ones at much lower costs. We therefore propose FuseMix, a multimodal augmentation scheme that operates on the latent spaces of arbitrary pre-trained unimodal encoders. Using FuseMix for multimodal alignment, we achieve competitive performance -- and in certain cases outperform state-of-the art methods -- in both image-text and audio-text retrieval, with orders of magnitude less compute and data: for example, we outperform CLIP on the Flickr30K text-to-image retrieval task with sim ! 600times fewer GPU days and sim ! 80times fewer image-text pairs. Additionally, we show how our method can be applied to convert pre-trained text-to-image generative models into audio-to-image ones. Code is available at: https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/fusemix.

Biological intelligence systems of animals perceive the world by integrating information in different modalities and processing simultaneously for various tasks. In contrast, current machine learning research follows a task-specific paradigm, leading to inefficient collaboration between tasks and high marginal costs of developing perception models for new tasks. In this paper, we present a generic perception architecture named Uni-Perceiver, which processes a variety of modalities and tasks with unified modeling and shared parameters. Specifically, Uni-Perceiver encodes different task inputs and targets from arbitrary modalities into a unified representation space with a modality-agnostic Transformer encoder and lightweight modality-specific tokenizers. Different perception tasks are modeled as the same formulation, that is, finding the maximum likelihood target for each input through the similarity of their representations. The model is pre-trained on several uni-modal and multi-modal tasks, and evaluated on a variety of downstream tasks, including novel tasks that did not appear in the pre-training stage. Results show that our pre-trained model without any tuning can achieve reasonable performance even on novel tasks. The performance can be improved to a level close to state-of-the-art methods by conducting prompt tuning on 1% of downstream task data. Full-data fine-tuning further delivers results on par with or better than state-of-the-art results. Code shall be released.

Human experts typically integrate numerical and textual multimodal information to analyze time series. However, most traditional deep learning predictors rely solely on unimodal numerical data, using a fixed-length window for training and prediction on a single dataset, and cannot adapt to different scenarios. The powered pre-trained large language model has introduced new opportunities for time series analysis. Yet, existing methods are either inefficient in training, incapable of handling textual information, or lack zero-shot forecasting capability. In this paper, we innovatively model time series as a foreign language and construct ChatTime, a unified framework for time series and text processing. As an out-of-the-box multimodal time series foundation model, ChatTime provides zero-shot forecasting capability and supports bimodal input/output for both time series and text. We design a series of experiments to verify the superior performance of ChatTime across multiple tasks and scenarios, and create four multimodal datasets to address data gaps. The experimental results demonstrate the potential and utility of ChatTime.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

We abstract the features (i.e. learned representations) of multi-modal data into 1) uni-modal features, which can be learned from uni-modal training, and 2) paired features, which can only be learned from cross-modal interactions. Multi-modal models are expected to benefit from cross-modal interactions on the basis of ensuring uni-modal feature learning. However, recent supervised multi-modal late-fusion training approaches still suffer from insufficient learning of uni-modal features on each modality. We prove that this phenomenon does hurt the model's generalization ability. To this end, we propose to choose a targeted late-fusion learning method for the given supervised multi-modal task from Uni-Modal Ensemble(UME) and the proposed Uni-Modal Teacher(UMT), according to the distribution of uni-modal and paired features. We demonstrate that, under a simple guiding strategy, we can achieve comparable results to other complex late-fusion or intermediate-fusion methods on various multi-modal datasets, including VGG-Sound, Kinetics-400, UCF101, and ModelNet40.

Unified multimodal models (UMMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for seamlessly unifying text and image understanding and generation. However, prevailing evaluations treat these abilities in isolation, such that tasks with multimodal inputs and outputs are scored primarily through unimodal reasoning, i.e., textual benchmarks emphasize language-based reasoning, while visual benchmarks emphasize reasoning outcomes manifested in the pixels. We introduce ROVER to address this pressing need to test reciprocal cross-modal reasoning, the use of one modality to guide, verify, or refine outputs in the other, an ability central to the vision of unified multimodal intelligence. ROVER is a human-annotated benchmark that explicitly targets reciprocal cross-modal reasoning, which contains 1312 tasks grounded in 1876 images, spanning two complementary settings. Verbally-augmented reasoning for visual generation evaluates whether models can use verbal prompts and reasoning chains to guide faithful image synthesis. Visually-augmented reasoning for verbal generation evaluates whether models can generate intermediate visualizations that strengthen their own reasoning processes for question answering. Experiments on 17 unified models reveal two key findings: (i) Cross-modal reasoning determines visual generation quality, with interleaved models significantly outperforming non-interleaved ones; notably, combining strong unimodal models fails to achieve comparable reasoning. (ii) Models show dissociation between physical and symbolic reasoning: they succeed at interpreting perceptual concepts literally but fail to construct visual abstractions for symbolic tasks, where faulty reasoning harms performance. These results highlight reciprocal cross-modal reasoning as a critical frontier for enabling true omnimodal generation.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Building generalist robot policies that can handle diverse tasks in open-ended environments is a central challenge in robotics. To leverage knowledge from large-scale pretraining, prior work has typically built generalist policies either on top of vision-language understanding models (VLMs) or generative models. However, both semantic understanding from vision-language pretraining and visual dynamics modeling from visual-generation pretraining are crucial for embodied robots. Recent unified models of generation and understanding have demonstrated strong capabilities in both comprehension and generation through large-scale pretraining. We posit that robotic policy learning can likewise benefit from the combined strengths of understanding, planning and continuous future representation learning. Building on this insight, we introduce UniCoD, which acquires the ability to dynamically model high-dimensional visual features through pretraining on over 1M internet-scale instructional manipulation videos. Subsequently, UniCoD is fine-tuned on data collected from the robot embodiment, enabling the learning of mappings from predictive representations to action tokens. Extensive experiments show our approach consistently outperforms baseline methods in terms of 9\% and 12\% across simulation environments and real-world out-of-distribution tasks.

We introduce UniMuMo, a unified multimodal model capable of taking arbitrary text, music, and motion data as input conditions to generate outputs across all three modalities. To address the lack of time-synchronized data, we align unpaired music and motion data based on rhythmic patterns to leverage existing large-scale music-only and motion-only datasets. By converting music, motion, and text into token-based representation, our model bridges these modalities through a unified encoder-decoder transformer architecture. To support multiple generation tasks within a single framework, we introduce several architectural improvements. We propose encoding motion with a music codebook, mapping motion into the same feature space as music. We introduce a music-motion parallel generation scheme that unifies all music and motion generation tasks into a single transformer decoder architecture with a single training task of music-motion joint generation. Moreover, the model is designed by fine-tuning existing pre-trained single-modality models, significantly reducing computational demands. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UniMuMo achieves competitive results on all unidirectional generation benchmarks across music, motion, and text modalities. Quantitative results are available in the https://hanyangclarence.github.io/unimumo_demo/{project page}.

We introduce a novel framework for incorporating human expertise into algorithmic predictions. Our approach leverages human judgment to distinguish inputs which are algorithmically indistinguishable, or "look the same" to predictive algorithms. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human-AI collaboration in prediction tasks, as experts often form judgments by drawing on information which is not encoded in an algorithm's training data. Algorithmic indistinguishability yields a natural test for assessing whether experts incorporate this kind of "side information", and further provides a simple but principled method for selectively incorporating human feedback into algorithmic predictions. We show that this method provably improves the performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor and precisely quantify this improvement. We find empirically that although algorithms often outperform their human counterparts on average, human judgment can improve algorithmic predictions on specific instances (which can be identified ex-ante). In an X-ray classification task, we find that this subset constitutes nearly 30% of the patient population. Our approach provides a natural way of uncovering this heterogeneity and thus enabling effective human-AI collaboration.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Large language models, trained on extensive corpora, successfully unify diverse linguistic tasks within a single generative framework. Inspired by this, recent works like Large Vision Model (LVM) extend this paradigm to vision by organizing tasks into sequential visual sentences, where visual prompts serve as the context to guide outputs. However, such modeling requires task-specific pre-training across modalities and sources, which is costly and limits scalability to unseen tasks. Given that pre-trained video generation models inherently capture temporal sequence dependencies, we explore a more unified and scalable alternative: can a pre-trained video generation model adapt to diverse image and video tasks? To answer this, we propose UniVid, a framework that fine-tunes a video diffusion transformer to handle various vision tasks without task-specific modifications. Tasks are represented as visual sentences, where the context sequence defines both the task and the expected output modality. We evaluate the generalization of UniVid from two perspectives: (1) cross-modal inference with contexts composed of both images and videos, extending beyond LVM's uni-modal setting; (2) cross-source tasks from natural to annotated data, without multi-source pre-training. Despite being trained solely on natural video data, UniVid generalizes well in both settings. Notably, understanding and generation tasks can easily switch by simply reversing the visual sentence order in this paradigm. These findings highlight the potential of pre-trained video generation models to serve as a scalable and unified foundation for vision modeling. Our code will be released at https://github.com/CUC-MIPG/UniVid.

Integrating multiple generative foundation models, especially those trained on different modalities, into something greater than the sum of its parts poses significant challenges. Two key hurdles are the availability of aligned data (concepts that contain similar meaning but is expressed differently in different modalities), and effectively leveraging unimodal representations in cross-domain generative tasks, without compromising their original unimodal capabilities. We propose Zipper, a multi-tower decoder architecture that addresses these concerns by using cross-attention to flexibly compose multimodal generative models from independently pre-trained unimodal decoders. In our experiments fusing speech and text modalities, we show the proposed architecture performs very competitively in scenarios with limited aligned text-speech data. We also showcase the flexibility of our model to selectively maintain unimodal (e.g., text-to-text generation) generation performance by freezing the corresponding modal tower (e.g. text). In cross-modal tasks such as automatic speech recognition (ASR) where the output modality is text, we show that freezing the text backbone results in negligible performance degradation. In cross-modal tasks such as text-to-speech generation (TTS) where the output modality is speech, we show that using a pre-trained speech backbone results in superior performance to the baseline.

Time series data in real-world applications such as healthcare, climate modeling, and finance are often irregular, multimodal, and messy, with varying sampling rates, asynchronous modalities, and pervasive missingness. However, existing benchmarks typically assume clean, regularly sampled, unimodal data, creating a significant gap between research and real-world deployment. We introduce Time-IMM, a dataset specifically designed to capture cause-driven irregularity in multimodal multivariate time series. Time-IMM represents nine distinct types of time series irregularity, categorized into trigger-based, constraint-based, and artifact-based mechanisms. Complementing the dataset, we introduce IMM-TSF, a benchmark library for forecasting on irregular multimodal time series, enabling asynchronous integration and realistic evaluation. IMM-TSF includes specialized fusion modules, including a timestamp-to-text fusion module and a multimodality fusion module, which support both recency-aware averaging and attention-based integration strategies. Empirical results demonstrate that explicitly modeling multimodality on irregular time series data leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance. Time-IMM and IMM-TSF provide a foundation for advancing time series analysis under real-world conditions. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-IMM, and the benchmark library can be accessed at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/IMM-TSF. Project page: https://blacksnail789521.github.io/time-imm-project-page/

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Predicting multiple real-world tasks in a single model often requires a particularly diverse feature space. Multimodal (MM) models aim to extract the synergistic predictive potential of multiple data types to create a shared feature space with aligned semantic meaning across inputs of drastically varying sizes (i.e. images, text, sound). Most current MM architectures fuse these representations in parallel, which not only limits their interpretability but also creates a dependency on modality availability. We present MultiModN, a multimodal, modular network that fuses latent representations in a sequence of any number, combination, or type of modality while providing granular real-time predictive feedback on any number or combination of predictive tasks. MultiModN's composable pipeline is interpretable-by-design, as well as innately multi-task and robust to the fundamental issue of biased missingness. We perform four experiments on several benchmark MM datasets across 10 real-world tasks (predicting medical diagnoses, academic performance, and weather), and show that MultiModN's sequential MM fusion does not compromise performance compared with a baseline of parallel fusion. By simulating the challenging bias of missing not-at-random (MNAR), this work shows that, contrary to MultiModN, parallel fusion baselines erroneously learn MNAR and suffer catastrophic failure when faced with different patterns of MNAR at inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first inherently MNAR-resistant approach to MM modeling. In conclusion, MultiModN provides granular insights, robustness, and flexibility without compromising performance.

With the rapid development of diffusion models in image generation, the demand for more powerful and flexible controllable frameworks is increasing. Although existing methods can guide generation beyond text prompts, the challenge of effectively combining multiple conditional inputs while maintaining consistency with all of them remains unsolved. To address this, we introduce UniCombine, a DiT-based multi-conditional controllable generative framework capable of handling any combination of conditions, including but not limited to text prompts, spatial maps, and subject images. Specifically, we introduce a novel Conditional MMDiT Attention mechanism and incorporate a trainable LoRA module to build both the training-free and training-based versions. Additionally, we propose a new pipeline to construct SubjectSpatial200K, the first dataset designed for multi-conditional generative tasks covering both the subject-driven and spatially-aligned conditions. Extensive experimental results on multi-conditional generation demonstrate the outstanding universality and powerful capability of our approach with state-of-the-art performance.

Attention-based models are appealing for multimodal processing because inputs from multiple modalities can be concatenated and fed to a single backbone network - thus requiring very little fusion engineering. The resulting representations are however fully entangled throughout the network, which may not always be desirable: in learning, contrastive audio-visual self-supervised learning requires independent audio and visual features to operate, otherwise learning collapses; in inference, evaluation of audio-visual models should be possible on benchmarks having just audio or just video. In this paper, we introduce Zorro, a technique that uses masks to control how inputs from each modality are routed inside Transformers, keeping some parts of the representation modality-pure. We apply this technique to three popular transformer-based architectures (ViT, Swin and HiP) and show that with contrastive pre-training Zorro achieves state-of-the-art results on most relevant benchmarks for multimodal tasks (AudioSet and VGGSound). Furthermore, the resulting models are able to perform unimodal inference on both video and audio benchmarks such as Kinetics-400 or ESC-50.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

We cast real-world humanoid control as a next token prediction problem, akin to predicting the next word in language. Our model is a causal transformer trained via autoregressive prediction of sensorimotor trajectories. To account for the multi-modal nature of the data, we perform prediction in a modality-aligned way, and for each input token predict the next token from the same modality. This general formulation enables us to leverage data with missing modalities, like video trajectories without actions. We train our model on a collection of simulated trajectories coming from prior neural network policies, model-based controllers, motion capture data, and YouTube videos of humans. We show that our model enables a full-sized humanoid to walk in San Francisco zero-shot. Our model can transfer to the real world even when trained on only 27 hours of walking data, and can generalize to commands not seen during training like walking backward. These findings suggest a promising path toward learning challenging real-world control tasks by generative modeling of sensorimotor trajectories.

Multimodal Reward Models (MM-RMs) are crucial for aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences, particularly as LLMs increasingly interact with multimodal data. However, we find that MM-RMs trained on existing datasets often struggle to generalize to out-of-distribution data due to their reliance on unimodal spurious correlations, primarily text-only shortcuts within the training distribution, which prevents them from leveraging true multimodal reward functions. To address this, we introduce a Shortcut-aware MM-RM learning algorithm that mitigates this issue by dynamically reweighting training samples, shifting the distribution toward better multimodal understanding, and reducing dependence on unimodal spurious correlations. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvements in generalization, downstream task performance, and scalability, establishing a more robust framework for multimodal reward modeling.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Anomalies are rare and anomaly detection is often therefore framed as One-Class Classification (OCC), i.e. trained solely on normalcy. Leading OCC techniques constrain the latent representations of normal motions to limited volumes and detect as abnormal anything outside, which accounts satisfactorily for the openset'ness of anomalies. But normalcy shares the same openset'ness property since humans can perform the same action in several ways, which the leading techniques neglect. We propose a novel generative model for video anomaly detection (VAD), which assumes that both normality and abnormality are multimodal. We consider skeletal representations and leverage state-of-the-art diffusion probabilistic models to generate multimodal future human poses. We contribute a novel conditioning on the past motion of people and exploit the improved mode coverage capabilities of diffusion processes to generate different-but-plausible future motions. Upon the statistical aggregation of future modes, an anomaly is detected when the generated set of motions is not pertinent to the actual future. We validate our model on 4 established benchmarks: UBnormal, HR-UBnormal, HR-STC, and HR-Avenue, with extensive experiments surpassing state-of-the-art results.

Foundation models (FMs) are able to leverage large volumes of unlabeled data to demonstrate superior performance across a wide range of tasks. However, FMs developed for biomedical domains have largely remained unimodal, i.e., independently trained and used for tasks on protein sequences alone, small molecule structures alone, or clinical data alone. To overcome this limitation of biomedical FMs, we present BioBridge, a novel parameter-efficient learning framework, to bridge independently trained unimodal FMs to establish multimodal behavior. BioBridge achieves it by utilizing Knowledge Graphs (KG) to learn transformations between one unimodal FM and another without fine-tuning any underlying unimodal FMs. Our empirical results demonstrate that BioBridge can beat the best baseline KG embedding methods (on average by around 76.3%) in cross-modal retrieval tasks. We also identify BioBridge demonstrates out-of-domain generalization ability by extrapolating to unseen modalities or relations. Additionally, we also show that BioBridge presents itself as a general purpose retriever that can aid biomedical multimodal question answering as well as enhance the guided generation of novel drugs.

Existing text-to-image diffusion models primarily generate images from text prompts. However, the inherent conciseness of textual descriptions poses challenges in faithfully synthesizing images with intricate details, such as specific entities or scenes. This paper presents UNIMO-G, a simple multimodal conditional diffusion framework that operates on multimodal prompts with interleaved textual and visual inputs, which demonstrates a unified ability for both text-driven and subject-driven image generation. UNIMO-G comprises two core components: a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) for encoding multimodal prompts, and a conditional denoising diffusion network for generating images based on the encoded multimodal input. We leverage a two-stage training strategy to effectively train the framework: firstly pre-training on large-scale text-image pairs to develop conditional image generation capabilities, and then instruction tuning with multimodal prompts to achieve unified image generation proficiency. A well-designed data processing pipeline involving language grounding and image segmentation is employed to construct multi-modal prompts. UNIMO-G excels in both text-to-image generation and zero-shot subject-driven synthesis, and is notably effective in generating high-fidelity images from complex multimodal prompts involving multiple image entities.

Learning from multiple modalities, such as audio and video, offers opportunities for leveraging complementary information, enhancing robustness, and improving contextual understanding and performance. However, combining such modalities presents challenges, especially when modalities differ in data structure, predictive contribution, and the complexity of their learning processes. It has been observed that one modality can potentially dominate the learning process, hindering the effective utilization of information from other modalities and leading to sub-optimal model performance. To address this issue the vast majority of previous works suggest to assess the unimodal contributions and dynamically adjust the training to equalize them. We improve upon previous work by introducing a multi-loss objective and further refining the balancing process, allowing it to dynamically adjust the learning pace of each modality in both directions, acceleration and deceleration, with the ability to phase out balancing effects upon convergence. We achieve superior results across three audio-video datasets: on CREMA-D, models with ResNet backbone encoders surpass the previous best by 1.9% to 12.4%, and Conformer backbone models deliver improvements ranging from 2.8% to 14.1% across different fusion methods. On AVE, improvements range from 2.7% to 7.7%, while on UCF101, gains reach up to 6.1%.

Recent advances in unified multimodal models indicate a clear trend towards comprehensive content generation. However, the auditory domain remains a significant challenge, with music and speech often developed in isolation, hindering progress towards universal audio synthesis. This separation stems from inherent task conflicts and severe data imbalances, which impede the development of a truly unified audio generation model. To address this challenge, we propose UniMoE-Audio, a unified speech and music generation model within a novel Dynamic-Capacity Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework. Architecturally, UniMoE-Audio introduces a Top-P routing strategy for dynamic expert number allocation, and a hybrid expert design comprising routed experts for domain-specific knowledge, shared experts for domain-agnostic features, and null experts for adaptive computation skipping. To tackle data imbalance, we introduce a three-stage training curriculum: 1) Independent Specialist Training leverages original datasets to instill domain-specific knowledge into each "proto-expert" without interference; 2) MoE Integration and Warmup incorporates these specialists into the UniMoE-Audio architecture, warming up the gate module and shared expert using a subset of balanced dataset; and 3) Synergistic Joint Training trains the entire model end-to-end on the fully balanced dataset, fostering enhanced cross-domain synergy. Extensive experiments show that UniMoE-Audio not only achieves state-of-the-art performance on major speech and music generation benchmarks, but also demonstrates superior synergistic learning, mitigating the performance degradation typically seen in naive joint training. Our findings highlight the substantial potential of specialized MoE architecture and curated training strategies in advancing the field of universal audio generation. Homepage: https://mukioxun.github.io/Uni-MoE-site/home.html

Recent advances in learning aligned multimodal representations have been primarily driven by training large neural networks on massive, noisy paired-modality datasets. In this work, we ask whether it is possible to achieve similar results with substantially less training time and data. We achieve this by taking advantage of existing pretrained unimodal encoders and careful curation of alignment data relevant to the downstream task of interest. We study a natural approach to aligning existing encoders via small auxiliary functions, and we find that this method is competitive with (or outperforms) state of the art in many settings while being less prone to overfitting, less costly to train, and more robust to distribution shift. With a properly chosen alignment distribution, our method surpasses prior state of the art for ImageNet zero-shot classification on public data while using two orders of magnitude less time and data and training 77% fewer parameters.

Reliable forecasting of the future behavior of road agents is a critical component to safe planning in autonomous vehicles. Here, we represent continuous trajectories as sequences of discrete motion tokens and cast multi-agent motion prediction as a language modeling task over this domain. Our model, MotionLM, provides several advantages: First, it does not require anchors or explicit latent variable optimization to learn multimodal distributions. Instead, we leverage a single standard language modeling objective, maximizing the average log probability over sequence tokens. Second, our approach bypasses post-hoc interaction heuristics where individual agent trajectory generation is conducted prior to interactive scoring. Instead, MotionLM produces joint distributions over interactive agent futures in a single autoregressive decoding process. In addition, the model's sequential factorization enables temporally causal conditional rollouts. The proposed approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, ranking 1st on the interactive challenge leaderboard.

Unified multimodal models have shown promising results in multimodal content generation and editing but remain largely limited to the image domain. In this work, we present UniVideo, a versatile framework that extends unified modeling to the video domain. UniVideo adopts a dual-stream design, combining a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) for instruction understanding with a Multimodal DiT (MMDiT) for video generation. This design enables accurate interpretation of complex multimodal instructions while preserving visual consistency. Built on this architecture, UniVideo unifies diverse video generation and editing tasks under a single multimodal instruction paradigm and is jointly trained across them. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UniVideo matches or surpasses state-of-the-art task-specific baselines in text/image-to-video generation, in-context video generation and in-context video editing. Notably, the unified design of UniVideo enables two forms of generalization. First, UniVideo supports task composition, such as combining editing with style transfer, by integrating multiple capabilities within a single instruction. Second, even without explicit training on free-form video editing, UniVideo transfers its editing capability from large-scale image editing data to this setting, handling unseen instructions such as green-screening characters or changing materials within a video. Beyond these core capabilities, UniVideo also supports visual-prompt-based video generation, where the MLLM interprets visual prompts and guides the MMDiT during synthesis. To foster future research, we will release our model and code.

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

Generative language models define distributions over sequences of tokens that can represent essentially any combination of data modalities (e.g., any permutation of image tokens from VQ-VAEs, speech tokens from HuBERT, BPE tokens for language or code, and so on). To better understand the scaling properties of such mixed-modal models, we conducted over 250 experiments using seven different modalities and model sizes ranging from 8 million to 30 billion, trained on 5-100 billion tokens. We report new mixed-modal scaling laws that unify the contributions of individual modalities and the interactions between them. Specifically, we explicitly model the optimal synergy and competition due to data and model size as an additive term to previous uni-modal scaling laws. We also find four empirical phenomena observed during the training, such as emergent coordinate-ascent style training that naturally alternates between modalities, guidelines for selecting critical hyper-parameters, and connections between mixed-modal competition and training stability. Finally, we test our scaling law by training a 30B speech-text model, which significantly outperforms the corresponding unimodal models. Overall, our research provides valuable insights into the design and training of mixed-modal generative models, an important new class of unified models that have unique distributional properties.

Online reviews in the form of user-generated content (UGC) significantly impact consumer decision-making. However, the pervasive issue of not only human fake content but also machine-generated content challenges UGC's reliability. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) may pave the way to fabricate indistinguishable fake generated content at a much lower cost. Leveraging OpenAI's GPT-4-Turbo and DALL-E-2 models, we craft AiGen-FoodReview, a multi-modal dataset of 20,144 restaurant review-image pairs divided into authentic and machine-generated. We explore unimodal and multimodal detection models, achieving 99.80% multimodal accuracy with FLAVA. We use attributes from readability and photographic theories to score reviews and images, respectively, demonstrating their utility as hand-crafted features in scalable and interpretable detection models, with comparable performance. The paper contributes by open-sourcing the dataset and releasing fake review detectors, recommending its use in unimodal and multimodal fake review detection tasks, and evaluating linguistic and visual features in synthetic versus authentic data.

Human perception of similarity across uni- and multimodal inputs is highly complex, making it challenging to develop automated metrics that accurately mimic it. General purpose vision-language models, such as CLIP and large multi-modal models (LMMs), can be applied as zero-shot perceptual metrics, and several recent works have developed models specialized in narrow perceptual tasks. However, the extent to which existing perceptual metrics align with human perception remains unclear. To investigate this question, we introduce UniSim-Bench, a benchmark encompassing 7 multi-modal perceptual similarity tasks, with a total of 25 datasets. Our evaluation reveals that while general-purpose models perform reasonably well on average, they often lag behind specialized models on individual tasks. Conversely, metrics fine-tuned for specific tasks fail to generalize well to unseen, though related, tasks. As a first step towards a unified multi-task perceptual similarity metric, we fine-tune both encoder-based and generative vision-language models on a subset of the UniSim-Bench tasks. This approach yields the highest average performance, and in some cases, even surpasses taskspecific models. Nevertheless, these models still struggle with generalization to unseen tasks, highlighting the ongoing challenge of learning a robust, unified perceptual similarity metric capable of capturing the human notion of similarity. The code and models are available at https://github.com/SaraGhazanfari/UniSim.

Imitation learning from human-provided demonstrations is a strong approach for learning policies for robot manipulation. While the ideal dataset for imitation learning is homogenous and low-variance -- reflecting a single, optimal method for performing a task -- natural human behavior has a great deal of heterogeneity, with several optimal ways to demonstrate a task. This multimodality is inconsequential to human users, with task variations manifesting as subconscious choices; for example, reaching down, then across to grasp an object, versus reaching across, then down. Yet, this mismatch presents a problem for interactive imitation learning, where sequences of users improve on a policy by iteratively collecting new, possibly conflicting demonstrations. To combat this problem of demonstrator incompatibility, this work designs an approach for 1) measuring the compatibility of a new demonstration given a base policy, and 2) actively eliciting more compatible demonstrations from new users. Across two simulation tasks requiring long-horizon, dexterous manipulation and a real-world "food plating" task with a Franka Emika Panda arm, we show that we can both identify incompatible demonstrations via post-hoc filtering, and apply our compatibility measure to actively elicit compatible demonstrations from new users, leading to improved task success rates across simulated and real environments.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

Existed pre-training methods either focus on single-modal tasks or multi-modal tasks, and cannot effectively adapt to each other. They can only utilize single-modal data (i.e. text or image) or limited multi-modal data (i.e. image-text pairs). In this work, we propose a unified-modal pre-training architecture, namely UNIMO, which can effectively adapt to both single-modal and multi-modal understanding and generation tasks. Large scale of free text corpus and image collections can be utilized to improve the capability of visual and textual understanding, and cross-modal contrastive learning (CMCL) is leveraged to align the textual and visual information into a unified semantic space over a corpus of image-text pairs. As the non-paired single-modal data is very rich, our model can utilize much larger scale of data to learn more generalizable representations. Moreover, the textual knowledge and visual knowledge can enhance each other in the unified semantic space. The experimental results show that UNIMO significantly improves the performance of several single-modal and multi-modal downstream tasks. Our code and pre-trained models are public at the UNIMO project page https://unimo-ptm.github.io/

Multimodal Large Language Models have demonstrated impressive capabilities across tasks, yet they often exhibit difficulty in distinguishing task-relevant from irrelevant signals -- particularly in tasks like Visual Question Answering -- which can lead to susceptibility to misleading or spurious inputs. We refer to this broader limitation as the Cross-Modality Competency Problem -- the model's inability to fairly evaluate all modalities. This vulnerability becomes more evident in modality-specific tasks -- such as image classification or pure text question answering -- where models are expected to rely solely on one modality. In such tasks, spurious information from irrelevant modalities often leads to significant performance degradation. We refer to this failure as Modality Interference, which serves as a concrete and measurable instance of the cross-modality competency problem, and we further design a perturbation-based causal diagnostic experiment to verify and quantify this problem. To mitigate modality interference, we propose a novel framework to finetune MLLMs, including perturbation-based data augmentations with both heuristic perturbations and adversarial perturbations, and a consistency regularization strategy applying on model outputs with original and perturbed inputs. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets (image-heavy, text-heavy and multimodal tasks) and multiple model families with different scales demonstrate significant improvements in robustness and cross-modality competency, indicating our method's effectiveness in boosting unimodal reasoning ability while enhancing performance on multimodal tasks.

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Modeling users' dynamic and evolving preferences from their historical behaviors is challenging and crucial for recommendation systems. Previous methods employ sequential neural networks (e.g., Recurrent Neural Network) to encode users' historical interactions from left to right into hidden representations for making recommendations. Although these methods achieve satisfactory results, they often assume a rigidly ordered sequence which is not always practical. We argue that such left-to-right unidirectional architectures restrict the power of the historical sequence representations. For this purpose, we introduce a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers for sequential Recommendation (BERT4Rec). However, jointly conditioning on both left and right context in deep bidirectional model would make the training become trivial since each item can indirectly "see the target item". To address this problem, we train the bidirectional model using the Cloze task, predicting the masked items in the sequence by jointly conditioning on their left and right context. Comparing with predicting the next item at each position in a sequence, the Cloze task can produce more samples to train a more powerful bidirectional model. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets show that our model outperforms various state-of-the-art sequential models consistently.

Egocentric human motion generation and forecasting with scene-context is crucial for enhancing AR/VR experiences, improving human-robot interaction, advancing assistive technologies, and enabling adaptive healthcare solutions by accurately predicting and simulating movement from a first-person perspective. However, existing methods primarily focus on third-person motion synthesis with structured 3D scene contexts, limiting their effectiveness in real-world egocentric settings where limited field of view, frequent occlusions, and dynamic cameras hinder scene perception. To bridge this gap, we introduce Egocentric Motion Generation and Egocentric Motion Forecasting, two novel tasks that utilize first-person images for scene-aware motion synthesis without relying on explicit 3D scene. We propose UniEgoMotion, a unified conditional motion diffusion model with a novel head-centric motion representation tailored for egocentric devices. UniEgoMotion's simple yet effective design supports egocentric motion reconstruction, forecasting, and generation from first-person visual inputs in a unified framework. Unlike previous works that overlook scene semantics, our model effectively extracts image-based scene context to infer plausible 3D motion. To facilitate training, we introduce EE4D-Motion, a large-scale dataset derived from EgoExo4D, augmented with pseudo-ground-truth 3D motion annotations. UniEgoMotion achieves state-of-the-art performance in egocentric motion reconstruction and is the first to generate motion from a single egocentric image. Extensive evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of our unified framework, setting a new benchmark for egocentric motion modeling and unlocking new possibilities for egocentric applications.

Multi-modal interpretation of biomedical images opens up novel opportunities in biomedical image analysis. Conventional AI approaches typically rely on disjointed training, i.e., Large Language Models (LLMs) for clinical text generation and segmentation models for target extraction, which results in inflexible real-world deployment and a failure to leverage holistic biomedical information. To this end, we introduce UniBiomed, the first universal foundation model for grounded biomedical image interpretation. UniBiomed is based on a novel integration of Multi-modal Large Language Model (MLLM) and Segment Anything Model (SAM), which effectively unifies the generation of clinical texts and the segmentation of corresponding biomedical objects for grounded interpretation. In this way, UniBiomed is capable of tackling a wide range of biomedical tasks across ten diverse biomedical imaging modalities. To develop UniBiomed, we curate a large-scale dataset comprising over 27 million triplets of images, annotations, and text descriptions across ten imaging modalities. Extensive validation on 84 internal and external datasets demonstrated that UniBiomed achieves state-of-the-art performance in segmentation, disease recognition, region-aware diagnosis, visual question answering, and report generation. Moreover, unlike previous models that rely on clinical experts to pre-diagnose images and manually craft precise textual or visual prompts, UniBiomed can provide automated and end-to-end grounded interpretation for biomedical image analysis. This represents a novel paradigm shift in clinical workflows, which will significantly improve diagnostic efficiency. In summary, UniBiomed represents a novel breakthrough in biomedical AI, unlocking powerful grounded interpretation capabilities for more accurate and efficient biomedical image analysis.

We introduce a method to generate temporally coherent human animation from a single image, a video, or a random noise. This problem has been formulated as modeling of an auto-regressive generation, i.e., to regress past frames to decode future frames. However, such unidirectional generation is highly prone to motion drifting over time, generating unrealistic human animation with significant artifacts such as appearance distortion. We claim that bidirectional temporal modeling enforces temporal coherence on a generative network by largely suppressing the motion ambiguity of human appearance. To prove our claim, we design a novel human animation framework using a denoising diffusion model: a neural network learns to generate the image of a person by denoising temporal Gaussian noises whose intermediate results are cross-conditioned bidirectionally between consecutive frames. In the experiments, our method demonstrates strong performance compared to existing unidirectional approaches with realistic temporal coherence.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can simultaneously process visual, textual, and auditory data, capturing insights that complement human analysis. However, existing video question-answering (VidQA) benchmarks and datasets often exhibit a bias toward a single modality, despite the goal of requiring advanced reasoning skills that integrate diverse modalities to answer the queries. In this work, we introduce the modality importance score (MIS) to identify such bias. It is designed to assess which modality embeds the necessary information to answer the question. Additionally, we propose an innovative method using state-of-the-art MLLMs to estimate the modality importance, which can serve as a proxy for human judgments of modality perception. With this MIS, we demonstrate the presence of unimodal bias and the scarcity of genuinely multimodal questions in existing datasets. We further validate the modality importance score with multiple ablation studies to evaluate the performance of MLLMs on permuted feature sets. Our results indicate that current models do not effectively integrate information due to modality imbalance in existing datasets. Our proposed MLLM-derived MIS can guide the curation of modality-balanced datasets that advance multimodal learning and enhance MLLMs' capabilities to understand and utilize synergistic relations across modalities.

Employing a single, unified model (UM) for both visual understanding (image-to-text: I2T) and and visual generation (text-to-image: T2I) has opened a new direction in Visual Language Model (VLM) research. While UMs can also support broader unimodal tasks (e.g., text-to-text, image-to-image), we focus on the core cross-modal pair T2I and I2T, as consistency between understanding and generation is critical for downstream use. Existing evaluations consider these capabilities in isolation: FID and GenEval for T2I, and benchmarks such as MME, MMBench for I2T. These single-pass metrics do not reveal whether a model that understands a concept can also render it, nor whether meaning is preserved when cycling between image and text modalities. To address this, we introduce the Unified Consistency Framework for Unified Models (UCF-UM), a cyclic evaluation protocol that alternates I2T and T2I over multiple generations to quantify semantic drift. UCF formulates 3 metrics: (i) Mean Cumulative Drift (MCD), an embedding-based measure of overall semantic loss; (ii) Semantic Drift Rate (SDR), that summarizes semantic decay rate; and (iii) Multi-Generation GenEval (MGG), an object-level compliance score extending GenEval. To assess generalization beyond COCO, which is widely used in training; we create a new benchmark ND400, sampled from NoCaps and DOCCI and evaluate on seven recent models. UCF-UM reveals substantial variation in cross-modal stability: some models like BAGEL maintain semantics over many alternations, whereas others like Vila-u drift quickly despite strong single-pass scores. Our results highlight cyclic consistency as a necessary complement to standard I2T and T2I evaluations, and provide practical metrics to consistently assess unified model's cross-modal stability and strength of their shared representations. Code: https://github.com/mollahsabbir/Semantic-Drift-in-Unified-Models

Multimodal counterfactual reasoning is a vital yet challenging ability for AI systems. It involves predicting the outcomes of hypothetical circumstances based on vision and language inputs, which enables AI models to learn from failures and explore hypothetical scenarios. Despite its importance, there are only a few datasets targeting the counterfactual reasoning abilities of multimodal models. Among them, they only cover reasoning over synthetic environments or specific types of events (e.g. traffic collisions), making them hard to reliably benchmark the model generalization ability in diverse real-world scenarios and reasoning dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we develop a video question answering dataset, ACQUIRED: it consists of 3.9K annotated videos, encompassing a wide range of event types and incorporating both first and third-person viewpoints, which ensures a focus on real-world diversity. In addition, each video is annotated with questions that span three distinct dimensions of reasoning, including physical, social, and temporal, which can comprehensively evaluate the model counterfactual abilities along multiple aspects. We benchmark our dataset against several state-of-the-art language-only and multimodal models and experimental results demonstrate a significant performance gap (>13%) between models and humans. The findings suggest that multimodal counterfactual reasoning remains an open challenge and ACQUIRED is a comprehensive and reliable benchmark for inspiring future research in this direction.

Most existing debiasing methods for multimodal models, including causal intervention and inference methods, utilize approximate heuristics to represent the biases, such as shallow features from early stages of training or unimodal features for multimodal tasks like VQA, etc., which may not be accurate. In this paper, we study bias arising from confounders in a causal graph for multimodal data and examine a novel approach that leverages causally-motivated information minimization to learn the confounder representations. Robust predictive features contain diverse information that helps a model generalize to out-of-distribution data. Hence, minimizing the information content of features obtained from a pretrained biased model helps learn the simplest predictive features that capture the underlying data distribution. We treat these features as confounder representations and use them via methods motivated by causal theory to remove bias from models. We find that the learned confounder representations indeed capture dataset biases, and the proposed debiasing methods improve out-of-distribution (OOD) performance on multiple multimodal datasets without sacrificing in-distribution performance. Additionally, we introduce a novel metric to quantify the sufficiency of spurious features in models' predictions that further demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Vaidehi99/CausalInfoMin

Continual learning (CL) aims to empower machine learning models to learn continually from new data, while building upon previously acquired knowledge without forgetting. As machine learning models have evolved from small to large pre-trained architectures, and from supporting unimodal to multimodal data, multimodal continual learning (MMCL) methods have recently emerged. The primary challenge of MMCL is that it goes beyond a simple stacking of unimodal CL methods, as such straightforward approaches often yield unsatisfactory performance. In this work, we present the first comprehensive survey on MMCL. We provide essential background knowledge and MMCL settings, as well as a structured taxonomy of MMCL methods. We categorize existing MMCL methods into four categories, i.e., regularization-based, architecture-based, replay-based, and prompt-based methods, explaining their methodologies and highlighting their key innovations. Additionally, to prompt further research in this field, we summarize open MMCL datasets and benchmarks, and discuss several promising future directions for investigation and development. We have also created a GitHub repository for indexing relevant MMCL papers and open resources available at https://github.com/LucyDYu/Awesome-Multimodal-Continual-Learning.

Recent diffusion-based human image animation techniques have demonstrated impressive success in synthesizing videos that faithfully follow a given reference identity and a sequence of desired movement poses. Despite this, there are still two limitations: i) an extra reference model is required to align the identity image with the main video branch, which significantly increases the optimization burden and model parameters; ii) the generated video is usually short in time (e.g., 24 frames), hampering practical applications. To address these shortcomings, we present a UniAnimate framework to enable efficient and long-term human video generation. First, to reduce the optimization difficulty and ensure temporal coherence, we map the reference image along with the posture guidance and noise video into a common feature space by incorporating a unified video diffusion model. Second, we propose a unified noise input that supports random noised input as well as first frame conditioned input, which enhances the ability to generate long-term video. Finally, to further efficiently handle long sequences, we explore an alternative temporal modeling architecture based on state space model to replace the original computation-consuming temporal Transformer. Extensive experimental results indicate that UniAnimate achieves superior synthesis results over existing state-of-the-art counterparts in both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Notably, UniAnimate can even generate highly consistent one-minute videos by iteratively employing the first frame conditioning strategy. Code and models will be publicly available. Project page: https://unianimate.github.io/.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly used for content moderation, yet their robustness in short-form video contexts remains underexplored. Current safety evaluations often rely on unimodal attacks, failing to address combined attack vulnerabilities. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive framework for evaluating the tri-modal safety of MLLMs. First, we present the Short-Video Multimodal Adversarial (SVMA) dataset, comprising diverse short-form videos with human-guided synthetic adversarial attacks. Second, we propose ChimeraBreak, a novel tri-modal attack strategy that simultaneously challenges visual, auditory, and semantic reasoning pathways. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art MLLMs reveal significant vulnerabilities with high Attack Success Rates (ASR). Our findings uncover distinct failure modes, showing model biases toward misclassifying benign or policy-violating content. We assess results using LLM-as-a-judge, demonstrating attack reasoning efficacy. Our dataset and findings provide crucial insights for developing more robust and safe MLLMs.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

If machine learning models were to achieve superhuman abilities at various reasoning or decision-making tasks, how would we go about evaluating such models, given that humans would necessarily be poor proxies for ground truth? In this paper, we propose a framework for evaluating superhuman models via consistency checks. Our premise is that while the correctness of superhuman decisions may be impossible to evaluate, we can still surface mistakes if the model's decisions fail to satisfy certain logical, human-interpretable rules. We instantiate our framework on three tasks where correctness of decisions is hard to evaluate due to either superhuman model abilities, or to otherwise missing ground truth: evaluating chess positions, forecasting future events, and making legal judgments. We show that regardless of a model's (possibly superhuman) performance on these tasks, we can discover logical inconsistencies in decision making. For example: a chess engine assigning opposing valuations to semantically identical boards; GPT-4 forecasting that sports records will evolve non-monotonically over time; or an AI judge assigning bail to a defendant only after we add a felony to their criminal record.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Large pre-trained models have proved to be remarkable zero- and (prompt-based) few-shot learners in unimodal vision and language tasks. We propose MAPL, a simple and parameter-efficient method that reuses frozen pre-trained unimodal models and leverages their strong generalization capabilities in multimodal vision-language (VL) settings. MAPL learns a lightweight mapping between the representation spaces of unimodal models using aligned image-text data, and can generalize to unseen VL tasks from just a few in-context examples. The small number of trainable parameters makes MAPL effective at low-data and in-domain learning. Moreover, MAPL's modularity enables easy extension to other pre-trained models. Extensive experiments on several visual question answering and image captioning benchmarks show that MAPL achieves superior or competitive performance compared to similar methods while training orders of magnitude fewer parameters. MAPL can be trained in just a few hours using modest computational resources and public datasets. We release our code and pre-trained model weights at https://github.com/mair-lab/mapl.

Controllable image captioning is an emerging multimodal topic that aims to describe the image with natural language following human purpose, e.g., looking at the specified regions or telling in a particular text style. State-of-the-art methods are trained on annotated pairs of input controls and output captions. However, the scarcity of such well-annotated multimodal data largely limits their usability and scalability for interactive AI systems. Leveraging unimodal instruction-following foundation models is a promising alternative that benefits from broader sources of data. In this paper, we present Caption AnyThing (CAT), a foundation model augmented image captioning framework supporting a wide range of multimodel controls: 1) visual controls, including points, boxes, and trajectories; 2) language controls, such as sentiment, length, language, and factuality. Powered by Segment Anything Model (SAM) and ChatGPT, we unify the visual and language prompts into a modularized framework, enabling the flexible combination between different controls. Extensive case studies demonstrate the user intention alignment capabilities of our framework, shedding light on effective user interaction modeling in vision-language applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ttengwang/Caption-Anything.

Vision-language (VL) models have demonstrated strong performance across various tasks. However, these models often rely on a specific modality for predictions, leading to "dominant modality bias.'' This bias significantly hurts performance, especially when one modality is impaired. In this study, we analyze model behavior under dominant modality bias and theoretically show that unaligned gradients or differences in gradient magnitudes prevent balanced convergence of the loss. Based on these findings, we propose a novel framework, BalGrad to mitigate dominant modality bias. Our approach includes inter-modality gradient reweighting, adjusting the gradient of KL divergence based on each modality's contribution, and inter-task gradient projection to align task directions in a non-conflicting manner. Experiments on UPMC Food-101, Hateful Memes, and MM-IMDb datasets confirm that BalGrad effectively alleviates over-reliance on specific modalities when making predictions.

We introduce MMaDA, a novel class of multimodal diffusion foundation models designed to achieve superior performance across diverse domains such as textual reasoning, multimodal understanding, and text-to-image generation. The approach is distinguished by three key innovations: (i) MMaDA adopts a unified diffusion architecture with a shared probabilistic formulation and a modality-agnostic design, eliminating the need for modality-specific components. This architecture ensures seamless integration and processing across different data types. (ii) We implement a mixed long chain-of-thought (CoT) fine-tuning strategy that curates a unified CoT format across modalities. By aligning reasoning processes between textual and visual domains, this strategy facilitates cold-start training for the final reinforcement learning (RL) stage, thereby enhancing the model's ability to handle complex tasks from the outset. (iii) We propose UniGRPO, a unified policy-gradient-based RL algorithm specifically tailored for diffusion foundation models. Utilizing diversified reward modeling, UniGRPO unifies post-training across both reasoning and generation tasks, ensuring consistent performance improvements. Experimental results demonstrate that MMaDA-8B exhibits strong generalization capabilities as a unified multimodal foundation model. It surpasses powerful models like LLaMA-3-7B and Qwen2-7B in textual reasoning, outperforms Show-o and SEED-X in multimodal understanding, and excels over SDXL and Janus in text-to-image generation. These achievements highlight MMaDA's effectiveness in bridging the gap between pretraining and post-training within unified diffusion architectures, providing a comprehensive framework for future research and development. We open-source our code and trained models at: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/MMaDA

We present UniFuture, a simple yet effective driving world model that seamlessly integrates future scene generation and perception within a single framework. Unlike existing models focusing solely on pixel-level future prediction or geometric reasoning, our approach jointly models future appearance (i.e., RGB image) and geometry (i.e., depth), ensuring coherent predictions. Specifically, during the training, we first introduce a Dual-Latent Sharing scheme, which transfers image and depth sequence in a shared latent space, allowing both modalities to benefit from shared feature learning. Additionally, we propose a Multi-scale Latent Interaction mechanism, which facilitates bidirectional refinement between image and depth features at multiple spatial scales, effectively enhancing geometry consistency and perceptual alignment. During testing, our UniFuture can easily predict high-consistency future image-depth pairs by only using the current image as input. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that UniFuture outperforms specialized models on future generation and perception tasks, highlighting the advantages of a unified, structurally-aware world model. The project page is at https://github.com/dk-liang/UniFuture.

Large language models are powerful systems that excel at many tasks, ranging from translation to mathematical reasoning. Yet, at the same time, these models often show unhuman-like characteristics. In the present paper, we address this gap and ask whether large language models can be turned into cognitive models. We find that -- after finetuning them on data from psychological experiments -- these models offer accurate representations of human behavior, even outperforming traditional cognitive models in two decision-making domains. In addition, we show that their representations contain the information necessary to model behavior on the level of individual subjects. Finally, we demonstrate that finetuning on multiple tasks enables large language models to predict human behavior in a previously unseen task. Taken together, these results suggest that large, pre-trained models can be adapted to become generalist cognitive models, thereby opening up new research directions that could transform cognitive psychology and the behavioral sciences as a whole.

Multimodal learning holds promise for richer information extraction by capturing dependencies across data sources. Yet, current training methods often underperform due to modality competition, a phenomenon where modalities contend for training resources leaving some underoptimized. This raises a pivotal question: how can we address training imbalances, ensure adequate optimization across all modalities, and achieve consistent performance improvements as we transition from unimodal to multimodal data? This paper proposes the Multimodal Competition Regularizer (MCR), inspired by a mutual information (MI) decomposition designed to prevent the adverse effects of competition in multimodal training. Our key contributions are: 1) A game-theoretic framework that adaptively balances modality contributions by encouraging each to maximize its informative role in the final prediction 2) Refining lower and upper bounds for each MI term to enhance the extraction of both task-relevant unique and shared information across modalities. 3) Proposing latent space permutations for conditional MI estimation, significantly improving computational efficiency. MCR outperforms all previously suggested training strategies and simple baseline, clearly demonstrating that training modalities jointly leads to important performance gains on both synthetic and large real-world datasets. We release our code and models at https://github.com/kkontras/MCR.

Mainstream Video-Language Pre-training models actbert,clipbert,violet consist of three parts, a video encoder, a text encoder, and a video-text fusion Transformer. They pursue better performance via utilizing heavier unimodal encoders or multimodal fusion Transformers, resulting in increased parameters with lower efficiency in downstream tasks. In this work, we for the first time introduce an end-to-end video-language model, namely all-in-one Transformer, that embeds raw video and textual signals into joint representations using a unified backbone architecture. We argue that the unique temporal information of video data turns out to be a key barrier hindering the design of a modality-agnostic Transformer. To overcome the challenge, we introduce a novel and effective token rolling operation to encode temporal representations from video clips in a non-parametric manner. The careful design enables the representation learning of both video-text multimodal inputs and unimodal inputs using a unified backbone model. Our pre-trained all-in-one Transformer is transferred to various downstream video-text tasks after fine-tuning, including text-video retrieval, video-question answering, multiple choice and visual commonsense reasoning. State-of-the-art performances with the minimal model FLOPs on nine datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method compared to the competitive counterparts. The code and pretrained model have been released in https://github.com/showlab/all-in-one.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Multimodal learning enhances the perceptual capabilities of cognitive systems by integrating information from different sensory modalities. However, existing multimodal fusion research typically assumes static integration, not fully incorporating key dynamic mechanisms found in the brain. Specifically, the brain exhibits an inverse effectiveness phenomenon, wherein weaker unimodal cues yield stronger multisensory integration benefits; conversely, when individual modal cues are stronger, the effect of fusion is diminished. This mechanism enables biological systems to achieve robust cognition even with scarce or noisy perceptual cues. Inspired by this biological mechanism, we explore the relationship between multimodal output and information from individual modalities, proposing an inverse effectiveness driven multimodal fusion (IEMF) strategy. By incorporating this strategy into neural networks, we achieve more efficient integration with improved model performance and computational efficiency, demonstrating up to 50% reduction in computational cost across diverse fusion methods. We conduct experiments on audio-visual classification, continual learning, and question answering tasks to validate our method. Results consistently demonstrate that our method performs excellently in these tasks. To verify universality and generalization, we also conduct experiments on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Spiking Neural Networks (SNN), with results showing good adaptability to both network types. Our research emphasizes the potential of incorporating biologically inspired mechanisms into multimodal networks and provides promising directions for the future development of multimodal artificial intelligence. The code is available at https://github.com/Brain-Cog-Lab/IEMF.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance in both automatic speech recognition (ASR) and text-to-speech (TTS) systems, gradually becoming the mainstream approach. However, most current approaches address these tasks separately rather than through a unified framework. This work aims to integrate these two tasks into one unified model. Although discrete speech tokenization enables joint modeling, its inherent information loss limits performance in both recognition and generation. In this work, we present UniVoice, a unified LLM framework through continuous representations that seamlessly integrates speech recognition and synthesis within a single model. Our approach combines the strengths of autoregressive modeling for speech recognition with flow matching for high-quality generation. To mitigate the inherent divergence between autoregressive and flow-matching models, we further design a dual attention mechanism, which switches between a causal mask for recognition and a bidirectional attention mask for synthesis. Furthermore, the proposed text-prefix-conditioned speech infilling method enables high-fidelity zero-shot voice cloning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method can achieve or exceed current single-task modeling methods in both ASR and zero-shot TTS tasks. This work explores new possibilities for end-to-end speech understanding and generation. Code is available at https://github.com/gwh22/UniVoice.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Multimodal learning has advanced significantly by aligning different modalities within shared latent spaces, enabling tasks such as cross-modal understanding and generation. Current alignment strategies in multimodal learning primarily include direct alignment using pre-trained or unified encoders and single-directional alignment via modality-specific connectors. Direct alignment struggles to fully leverage rich intra-modal knowledge, often requiring extensive training data to achieve cross-modal representation. Meanwhile, single-directional alignment methods, despite leveraging pre-trained knowledge, restrict task adaptability and hinder the model's ability to capture bidirectional relationships, leading to incomplete knowledge fusion and underutilization of complementary modality-specific information. To address these limitations, we introduce Alt-MoE, a scalable multimodal alignment framework that employs a mixture of experts (MoE) model as a multi-directional connector across modalities. By utilizing a sequential alternating one-way alignment strategy, Alt-MoE iteratively refines the model to achieve bidirectional alignment. Alt-MoE operates in latent space, enabling efficient vector pre-storage and real-time retrieval via MoE, optimizing large-scale data processing. Extensive empirical studies demonstrate that Alt-MoE achieves competitive performance on cross-modal retrieval and visual question answering by integrating diverse modality-specific knowledge, generalizing to unseen data, and easily scaling to new tasks and modalities through dynamic adjustment of MoE capacity and expert activation.

Recently, human-computer interaction with various modalities has shown promising applications, like GPT-4o and Gemini. Given the foundational role of multimodal joint representation in understanding and generation pipelines, high-quality omni joint representations would be a step toward co-processing more diverse multimodal information. In this work, we present OmniBind, large-scale multimodal joint representation models ranging in scale from 7 billion to 30 billion parameters, which support 3D, audio, image, and language inputs. Due to the scarcity of data pairs across all modalities, instead of training large models from scratch, we propose remapping and binding the spaces of various pre-trained specialist models together. This approach enables "scaling up" by indirectly increasing the model parameters and the amount of seen data. To effectively integrate various spaces, we dynamically assign weights to different spaces by learning routers with two objectives: cross-modal overall alignment and language representation decoupling. Notably, since binding and routing spaces both only require lightweight networks, OmniBind is extremely training-efficient. Learning the largest 30B model requires merely unpaired unimodal data and approximately 3 days on a single 8-4090 node. Extensive experiments demonstrate the versatility and superiority of OmniBind as an omni representation model, highlighting its great potential for diverse applications, such as any-query and composable multimodal understanding.

This paper introduces Multimodal Speculative Decoding (MSD) to accelerate Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) inference. Speculative decoding has been shown to accelerate Large Language Models (LLMs) without sacrificing accuracy. However, current speculative decoding methods for MLLMs fail to achieve the same speedup as they do for LLMs. To address this, we reimagine speculative decoding specifically for MLLMs. Our analysis of MLLM characteristics reveals two key design principles for MSD: (1) Text and visual tokens have fundamentally different characteristics and need to be processed separately during drafting. (2) Both language modeling ability and visual perception capability are crucial for the draft model. For the first principle, MSD decouples text and visual tokens in the draft model, allowing each to be handled based on its own characteristics. For the second principle, MSD uses a two-stage training strategy: In stage one, the draft model is trained on text-only instruction-tuning datasets to improve its language modeling ability. In stage two, MSD gradually introduces multimodal data to enhance the visual perception capability of the draft model. Experiments show that MSD boosts inference speed by up to 2.29times for LLaVA-1.5-7B and up to 2.46times for LLaVA-1.5-13B on multimodal benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness. Our code is available at https://github.com/Lyn-Lucy/MSD.

Unified generation of sequence and structure for scientific data (e.g., materials, molecules, proteins) is a critical task. Existing approaches primarily rely on either autoregressive sequence models or diffusion models, each offering distinct advantages and facing notable limitations. Autoregressive models, such as GPT, Llama, and Phi-4, have demonstrated remarkable success in natural language generation and have been extended to multimodal tasks (e.g., image, video, and audio) using advanced encoders like VQ-VAE to represent complex modalities as discrete sequences. However, their direct application to scientific domains is challenging due to the high precision requirements and the diverse nature of scientific data. On the other hand, diffusion models excel at generating high-dimensional scientific data, such as protein, molecule, and material structures, with remarkable accuracy. Yet, their inability to effectively model sequences limits their potential as general-purpose multimodal foundation models. To address these challenges, we propose UniGenX, a unified framework that combines autoregressive next-token prediction with conditional diffusion models. This integration leverages the strengths of autoregressive models to ease the training of conditional diffusion models, while diffusion-based generative heads enhance the precision of autoregressive predictions. We validate the effectiveness of UniGenX on material and small molecule generation tasks, achieving a significant leap in state-of-the-art performance for material crystal structure prediction and establishing new state-of-the-art results for small molecule structure prediction, de novo design, and conditional generation. Notably, UniGenX demonstrates significant improvements, especially in handling long sequences for complex structures, showcasing its efficacy as a versatile tool for scientific data generation.

Representations from transformer-based unidirectional language models are known to be effective at predicting brain responses to natural language. However, most studies comparing language models to brains have used GPT-2 or similarly sized language models. Here we tested whether larger open-source models such as those from the OPT and LLaMA families are better at predicting brain responses recorded using fMRI. Mirroring scaling results from other contexts, we found that brain prediction performance scales log-linearly with model size from 125M to 30B parameter models, with ~15% increased encoding performance as measured by correlation with a held-out test set across 3 subjects. Similar log-linear behavior was observed when scaling the size of the fMRI training set. We also characterized scaling for acoustic encoding models that use HuBERT, WavLM, and Whisper, and we found comparable improvements with model size. A noise ceiling analysis of these large, high-performance encoding models showed that performance is nearing the theoretical maximum for brain areas such as the precuneus and higher auditory cortex. These results suggest that increasing scale in both models and data will yield incredibly effective models of language processing in the brain, enabling better scientific understanding as well as applications such as decoding.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Recent contrastive multimodal vision-language models like CLIP have demonstrated robust open-world semantic understanding, becoming the standard image backbones for vision-language applications due to their aligned latent space. However, this practice has left powerful unimodal encoders for both vision and language underutilized in multimodal applications which raises a key question: Is there a plausible way to connect unimodal backbones for zero-shot vision-language tasks? To this end, we propose a novel approach that aligns vision and language modalities using only projection layers on pretrained, frozen unimodal encoders. Our method exploits the high semantic similarity between embedding spaces of well-trained vision and language models. It involves selecting semantically similar encoders in the latent space, curating a concept-rich dataset of image-caption pairs, and training simple MLP projectors. We evaluated our approach on 12 zero-shot classification datasets and 2 image-text retrieval datasets. Our best model, utilizing DINOv2 and All-Roberta-Large text encoder, achieves 76\(\%\) accuracy on ImageNet with a 20-fold reduction in data and 65 fold reduction in compute requirements. The proposed framework enhances the accessibility of model development while enabling flexible adaptation across diverse scenarios, offering an efficient approach to building multimodal models by utilizing existing unimodal architectures. Code and datasets will be released soon.

Unified multimodal models aim to jointly enable visual understanding and generation, yet current benchmarks rarely examine their true integration. Existing evaluations either treat the two abilities in isolation or overlook tasks that inherently couple them. To address this gap, we present Uni-MMMU, a comprehensive and discipline-aware benchmark that systematically unfolds the bidirectional synergy between generation and understanding across eight reasoning-centric domains, including science, coding, mathematics, and puzzles. Each task is bidirectionally coupled, demanding models to (i) leverage conceptual understanding to guide precise visual synthesis, or (ii) utilize generation as a cognitive scaffold for analytical reasoning. Uni-MMMU incorporates verifiable intermediate reasoning steps, unique ground truths, and a reproducible scoring protocol for both textual and visual outputs. Through extensive evaluation of state-of-the-art unified, generation-only, and understanding-only models, we reveal substantial performance disparities and cross-modal dependencies, offering new insights into when and how these abilities reinforce one another, and establishing a reliable foundation for advancing unified models.

Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to understand people's mental states, is an essential ingredient for developing machines with human-level social intelligence. Recent machine learning models, particularly large language models, seem to show some aspects of ToM understanding. However, existing ToM benchmarks use unimodal datasets - either video or text. Human ToM, on the other hand, is more than video or text understanding. People can flexibly reason about another person's mind based on conceptual representations (e.g., goals, beliefs, plans) extracted from any available data. To address this, we introduce a multimodal Theory of Mind question answering (MMToM-QA) benchmark. MMToM-QA comprehensively evaluates machine ToM both on multimodal data and on different kinds of unimodal data about a person's activity in a household environment. To engineer multimodal ToM capacity, we propose a novel method, BIP-ALM (Bayesian Inverse Planning Accelerated by Language Models). BIP-ALM extracts unified representations from multimodal data and utilizes language models for scalable Bayesian inverse planning. We conducted a systematic comparison of human performance, BIP-ALM, and state-of-the-art models, including GPT-4. The experiments demonstrate that large language models and large multimodal models still lack robust ToM capacity. BIP-ALM, on the other hand, shows promising results, by leveraging the power of both model-based mental inference and language models.

Large multimodal models (LMMs) combine unimodal encoders and large language models (LLMs) to perform multimodal tasks. Despite recent advancements towards the interpretability of these models, understanding internal representations of LMMs remains largely a mystery. In this paper, we present a novel framework for the interpretation of LMMs. We propose a dictionary learning based approach, applied to the representation of tokens. The elements of the learned dictionary correspond to our proposed concepts. We show that these concepts are well semantically grounded in both vision and text. Thus we refer to these as ``multi-modal concepts''. We qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the results of the learnt concepts. We show that the extracted multimodal concepts are useful to interpret representations of test samples. Finally, we evaluate the disentanglement between different concepts and the quality of grounding concepts visually and textually. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mshukor/xl-vlms

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used in time series analysis. However, the potential of multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), particularly vision-language models, for time series remains largely under-explored. One natural way for humans to detect time series anomalies is through visualization and textual description. Motivated by this, we raise a critical and practical research question: Can multimodal LLMs perform time series anomaly detection? To answer this, we propose VisualTimeAnomaly benchmark to evaluate MLLMs in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). Our approach transforms time series numerical data into the image format and feed these images into various MLLMs, including proprietary models (GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5) and open-source models (LLaVA-NeXT and Qwen2-VL), each with one larger and one smaller variant. In total, VisualTimeAnomaly contains 12.4k time series images spanning 3 scenarios and 3 anomaly granularities with 9 anomaly types across 8 MLLMs. Starting with the univariate case (point- and range-wise anomalies), we extend our evaluation to more practical scenarios, including multivariate and irregular time series scenarios, and variate-wise anomalies. Our study reveals several key insights: 1) MLLMs detect range- and variate-wise anomalies more effectively than point-wise anomalies. 2) MLLMs are highly robust to irregular time series, even with 25% of the data missing. 3) Open-source MLLMs perform comparably to proprietary models in TSAD. While open-source MLLMs excel on univariate time series, proprietary MLLMs demonstrate superior effectiveness on multivariate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to comprehensively investigate MLLMs for TSAD, particularly for multivariate and irregular time series scenarios. We release our dataset and code at https://github.com/mllm-ts/VisualTimeAnomaly to support future research.

The rapid progress of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) and cloud-based AI agents is transforming human-AI collaboration into bidirectional, multimodal interaction. However, existing codecs remain optimized for unimodal, one-way communication, resulting in repeated degradation under conventional compress-transmit-reconstruct pipelines. To address this limitation, we propose UniMIC, a Unified token-based Multimodal Interactive Coding framework that bridges edge devices and cloud AI agents. Instead of transmitting raw pixels or plain text, UniMIC employs compact tokenized representations as the communication medium, enabling efficient low-bitrate transmission while maintaining compatibility with LMMs. To further enhance compression, lightweight Transformer-based entropy models with scenario-specific designs-generic, masked, and text-conditioned-effectively minimize inter-token redundancy. Extensive experiments on text-to-image generation, text-guided inpainting, outpainting, and visual question answering show that UniMIC achieves substantial bitrate savings and remains robust even at ultra-low bitrates (<0.05bpp), without compromising downstream task performance. These results establish UniMIC as a practical and forward-looking paradigm for next-generation multimodal interactive communication.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single image, even in simple physical scenarios such as falling blocks or mechanical object interactions, despite fine-tuning on such data. We show that this limitation arises from the overhead of generating pixels rather than directly modeling motion.

Predicting the motion of other agents in a scene is highly relevant for autonomous driving, as it allows a self-driving car to anticipate. Inspired by the success of decoder-only models for language modeling, we propose DONUT, a Decoder-Only Network for Unrolling Trajectories. Unlike existing encoder-decoder forecasting models, we encode historical trajectories and predict future trajectories with a single autoregressive model. This allows the model to make iterative predictions in a consistent manner, and ensures that the model is always provided with up-to-date information, thereby enhancing performance. Furthermore, inspired by multi-token prediction for language modeling, we introduce an 'overprediction' strategy that gives the model the auxiliary task of predicting trajectories at longer temporal horizons. This allows the model to better anticipate the future and further improves performance. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our decoder-only approach outperforms the encoder-decoder baseline, and achieves new state-of-the-art results on the Argoverse 2 single-agent motion forecasting benchmark.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a time asymmetry in their ability to learn natural language: a difference in the average log-perplexity when trying to predict the next token versus when trying to predict the previous one. This difference is at the same time subtle and very consistent across various modalities (language, model size, training time, ...). Theoretically, this is surprising: from an information-theoretic point of view, there should be no such difference. We provide a theoretical framework to explain how such an asymmetry can appear from sparsity and computational complexity considerations, and outline a number of perspectives opened by our results.

In this paper, we introduce an improved approach of speculative decoding aimed at enhancing the efficiency of serving large language models. Our method capitalizes on the strengths of two established techniques: the classic two-model speculative decoding approach, and the more recent single-model approach, Medusa. Drawing inspiration from Medusa, our approach adopts a single-model strategy for speculative decoding. However, our method distinguishes itself by employing a single, lightweight draft head with a recurrent dependency design, akin in essence to the small, draft model uses in classic speculative decoding, but without the complexities of the full transformer architecture. And because of the recurrent dependency, we can use beam search to swiftly filter out undesired candidates with the draft head. The outcome is a method that combines the simplicity of single-model design and avoids the need to create a data-dependent tree attention structure only for inference in Medusa. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on several popular open source language models, along with a comprehensive analysis of the trade-offs involved in adopting this approach.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

The advent of Unified Multimodal Models (UMMs) signals a paradigm shift in artificial intelligence, moving from passive perception to active, cross-modal generation. Despite their unprecedented ability to synthesize information, a critical gap persists in evaluation: existing benchmarks primarily assess discriminative understanding or unconstrained image generation separately, failing to measure the integrated cognitive process of generative reasoning. To bridge this gap, we propose that geometric construction provides an ideal testbed as it inherently demands a fusion of language comprehension and precise visual generation. We introduce GGBench, a benchmark designed specifically to evaluate geometric generative reasoning. It provides a comprehensive framework for systematically diagnosing a model's ability to not only understand and reason but to actively construct a solution, thereby setting a more rigorous standard for the next generation of intelligent systems. Project website: https://opendatalab-raiser.github.io/GGBench/.

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset and library are available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD and https://github.com/AdityaLab/MM-TSFlib.

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.

Current protein language models (PLMs) learn protein representations mainly based on their sequences, thereby well capturing co-evolutionary information, but they are unable to explicitly acquire protein functions, which is the end goal of protein representation learning. Fortunately, for many proteins, their textual property descriptions are available, where their various functions are also described. Motivated by this fact, we first build the ProtDescribe dataset to augment protein sequences with text descriptions of their functions and other important properties. Based on this dataset, we propose the ProtST framework to enhance Protein Sequence pre-training and understanding by biomedical Texts. During pre-training, we design three types of tasks, i.e., unimodal mask prediction, multimodal representation alignment and multimodal mask prediction, to enhance a PLM with protein property information with different granularities and, at the same time, preserve the PLM's original representation power. On downstream tasks, ProtST enables both supervised learning and zero-shot prediction. We verify the superiority of ProtST-induced PLMs over previous ones on diverse representation learning benchmarks. Under the zero-shot setting, we show the effectiveness of ProtST on zero-shot protein classification, and ProtST also enables functional protein retrieval from a large-scale database without any function annotation.

Building upon large language models (LLMs), recent large multimodal models (LMMs) unify cross-model understanding and generation into a single framework. However, LMMs still struggle to achieve accurate image-text alignment, prone to generating text responses contradicting the visual input or failing to follow the text-to-image prompts. Current solutions require external supervision (e.g., human feedback or reward models) and only address unidirectional tasks-either understanding or generation. In this work, based on the observation that understanding and generation are inverse dual tasks, we introduce a self-supervised dual reward mechanism to reinforce the understanding and generation capabilities of LMMs. Specifically, we sample multiple outputs for a given input in one task domain, then reverse the input-output pairs to compute the dual likelihood of the model as self-rewards for optimization. Extensive experimental results on visual understanding and generation benchmarks demonstrate that our method can effectively enhance the performance of the model without any external supervision, especially achieving remarkable improvements in text-to-image tasks.

Recently, Omni-modal large language models (OLLMs) have sparked a new wave of research, achieving impressive results in tasks such as audio-video understanding and real-time environment perception. However, hallucination issues still persist. Similar to the bimodal setting, the priors from the text modality tend to dominate, leading OLLMs to rely more heavily on textual cues while neglecting visual and audio information. In addition, fully multimodal scenarios introduce new challenges. Most existing models align visual or auditory modalities with text independently during training, while ignoring the intrinsic correlations between video and its corresponding audio. This oversight results in hallucinations when reasoning requires interpreting hidden audio cues embedded in video content. To address these challenges, we propose OmniDPO, a preference-alignment framework designed to mitigate hallucinations in OLLMs. Specifically, OmniDPO incorporates two strategies: (1) constructing text-preference sample pairs to enhance the model's understanding of audio-video interactions; and (2) constructing multimodal-preference sample pairs to strengthen the model's attention to visual and auditory information. By tackling both challenges, OmniDPO effectively improves multimodal grounding and reduces hallucination. Experiments conducted on two OLLMs demonstrate that OmniDPO not only effectively mitigates multimodal hallucinations but also significantly enhances the models' reasoning capabilities across modalities. All code and datasets will be released upon paper acceptance.

We study subliminal learning, a surprising phenomenon where language models transmit behavioral traits via semantically unrelated data. In our main experiments, a "teacher" model with some trait T (such as liking owls or being misaligned) generates a dataset consisting solely of number sequences. Remarkably, a "student" model trained on this dataset learns T. This occurs even when the data is filtered to remove references to T. We observe the same effect when training on code or reasoning traces generated by the same teacher model. However, we do not observe the effect when the teacher and student have different base models. To help explain our findings, we prove a theoretical result showing that subliminal learning occurs in all neural networks under certain conditions, and demonstrate subliminal learning in a simple MLP classifier. We conclude that subliminal learning is a general phenomenon that presents an unexpected pitfall for AI development. Distillation could propagate unintended traits, even when developers try to prevent this via data filtering.

Recent language models have a mysterious tendency to generate false but plausible-sounding text. Such "hallucinations" are an obstacle to the usability of language-based AI systems and can harm people who rely upon their outputs. This work shows shows that there is an inherent statistical reason that pretrained language models hallucinate certain types of facts, having nothing to do with the transformer LM architecture or data quality. For "arbitrary" facts whose veracity cannot be determined from the training data, we show that hallucination is necessary for language models that satisfy a statistical calibration condition appropriate for generative language models. Specifically, if the maximum probability of any fact is bounded, we show that the probability of generating a hallucination is close to the fraction of facts that occur exactly once in the training data (a "Good-Turing" estimate), even assuming ideal training data without errors. One conclusion is that models pretrained to be sufficiently good predictors (i.e., calibrated) may require post-training to mitigate hallucinations on the type of arbitrary facts that tend to appear once in the training set. However, our analysis also suggests that there is no statistical reason that pretraining will lead to hallucination on facts that tend to appear more than once in the training data (like references to publications such as articles and books, whose hallucinations have been particularly notable and problematic) or on systematic facts (like arithmetic calculations). Therefore, different architectures and learning algorithms may mitigate these latter types of hallucinations.

Large-scale vision-language pre-trained models have shown promising transferability to various downstream tasks. As the size of these foundation models and the number of downstream tasks grow, the standard full fine-tuning paradigm becomes unsustainable due to heavy computational and storage costs. This paper proposes UniAdapter, which unifies unimodal and multimodal adapters for parameter-efficient cross-modal adaptation on pre-trained vision-language models. Specifically, adapters are distributed to different modalities and their interactions, with the total number of tunable parameters reduced by partial weight sharing. The unified and knowledge-sharing design enables powerful cross-modal representations that can benefit various downstream tasks, requiring only 1.0%-2.0% tunable parameters of the pre-trained model. Extensive experiments on 6 cross-modal downstream benchmarks (including video-text retrieval, image-text retrieval, VideoQA, and VQA) show that in most cases, UniAdapter not only outperforms the state-of-the-arts, but even beats the full fine-tuning strategy. Particularly, on the MSRVTT retrieval task, UniAdapter achieves 49.7% recall@1 with 2.2% model parameters, outperforming the latest competitors by 2.0%. The code and models are available at https://github.com/RERV/UniAdapter.

Fine-tuning continuous prompts for target tasks has recently emerged as a compact alternative to full model fine-tuning. Motivated by these promising results, we investigate the feasibility of extracting a discrete (textual) interpretation of continuous prompts that is faithful to the problem they solve. In practice, we observe a "wayward" behavior between the task solved by continuous prompts and their nearest neighbor discrete projections: We can find continuous prompts that solve a task while being projected to an arbitrary text (e.g., definition of a different or even a contradictory task), while being within a very small (2%) margin of the best continuous prompt of the same size for the task. We provide intuitions behind this odd and surprising behavior, as well as extensive empirical analyses quantifying the effect of various parameters. For instance, for larger model sizes we observe higher waywardness, i.e, we can find prompts that more closely map to any arbitrary text with a smaller drop in accuracy. These findings have important implications relating to the difficulty of faithfully interpreting continuous prompts and their generalization across models and tasks, providing guidance for future progress in prompting language models.

We present a method for making neural network predictions robust to shifts from the training data distribution. The proposed method is based on making predictions via a diverse set of cues (called 'middle domains') and ensembling them into one strong prediction. The premise of the idea is that predictions made via different cues respond differently to a distribution shift, hence one should be able to merge them into one robust final prediction. We perform the merging in a straightforward but principled manner based on the uncertainty associated with each prediction. The evaluations are performed using multiple tasks and datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ImageNet, CIFAR) under a wide range of adversarial and non-adversarial distribution shifts which demonstrate the proposed method is considerably more robust than its standard learning counterpart, conventional deep ensembles, and several other baselines.

This paper presents a novel multimodal framework to distinguish between different symptom classes of subjects in the schizophrenia spectrum and healthy controls using audio, video, and text modalities. We implemented Convolution Neural Network and Long Short Term Memory based unimodal models and experimented on various multimodal fusion approaches to come up with the proposed framework. We utilized a minimal Gated multimodal unit (mGMU) to obtain a bi-modal intermediate fusion of the features extracted from the input modalities before finally fusing the outputs of the bimodal fusions to perform subject-wise classifications. The use of mGMU units in the multimodal framework improved the performance in both weighted f1-score and weighted AUC-ROC scores.

Common evaluation paradigms for language models focus on scoring single responses through accuracy metrics or proper scoring rules, failing to capture the full richness of a model's belief state. Recent work illustrates that language models hallucinate in-part because they are optimised to be good test-takers under binary scoring schemes that reward any answer over abstention. While this insight naturally leads to penalty-based approaches, they ignore crucial distinctions in how models distribute uncertainty, for example between hedging toward incorrect answers versus hedging toward "I don't know" responses. A novel evaluation metric, the Distributional Correctness Score (DCS), is introduced to solve this problem, i.e., of not considering a model's entire probability distribution over answer choices. DCS naturally distinguishes between harmful overconfidence in wrong answers and uncertainty expressed through abstention, providing scores in an interpretable default range. Through theoretical analysis and illustrative examples, DCS is demonstrated to offer a more nuanced and aligned evaluation paradigm that incentivises models to express genuine uncertainty rather than guessing. Adapting 12 existing evaluation benchmarks to DCS's variants and measuring performance on six language models reveals that for half of the tested benchmarks scores are negative across all tested models, indicating significant tendencies towards hallucination.

Multimodal Large Languages models have been progressing from uni-modal understanding toward unifying visual, audio and language modalities, collectively termed omni models. However, the correlation between uni-modal and omni-modal remains unclear, which requires comprehensive evaluation to drive omni model's intelligence evolution. In this work, we propose a novel, high quality and UNified Omni model benchmark, UNO-Bench, which effectively assesses both UNi-modal and Omni-modal capabilities. The benchmark consists of 3730 human curated samples, with 98% cross-modality solvability, across 44 task types, and an innovative multi-step open-ended question type for assessing complex reasoning. Besides, a general scoring model supporting 6 question types is proposed for automated evaluation with 95% accuracy. Experimental result shows the Compositional Law between omni-modal and uni-modal performance and the omni-modal capability manifests as a bottleneck effect on weak models, while exhibiting synergistic promotion on strong models. The code and data are available at https://github.com/meituan-longcat/UNO-Bench

Generative models trained on internet data have revolutionized how text, image, and video content can be created. Perhaps the next milestone for generative models is to simulate realistic experience in response to actions taken by humans, robots, and other interactive agents. Applications of a real-world simulator range from controllable content creation in games and movies, to training embodied agents purely in simulation that can be directly deployed in the real world. We explore the possibility of learning a universal simulator (UniSim) of real-world interaction through generative modeling. We first make the important observation that natural datasets available for learning a real-world simulator are often rich along different axes (e.g., abundant objects in image data, densely sampled actions in robotics data, and diverse movements in navigation data). With careful orchestration of diverse datasets, each providing a different aspect of the overall experience, UniSim can emulate how humans and agents interact with the world by simulating the visual outcome of both high-level instructions such as "open the drawer" and low-level controls such as "move by x, y" from otherwise static scenes and objects. There are numerous use cases for such a real-world simulator. As an example, we use UniSim to train both high-level vision-language planners and low-level reinforcement learning policies, each of which exhibit zero-shot real-world transfer after training purely in a learned real-world simulator. We also show that other types of intelligence such as video captioning models can benefit from training with simulated experience in UniSim, opening up even wider applications. Video demos can be found at https://universal-simulator.github.io.

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

We present a computational model for a symbol emergence system that enables the emergence of lexical knowledge with combinatoriality among agents through a Metropolis-Hastings naming game and cross-situational learning. Many computational models have been proposed to investigate combinatoriality in emergent communication and symbol emergence in cognitive and developmental robotics. However, existing models do not sufficiently address category formation based on sensory-motor information and semiotic communication through the exchange of word sequences within a single integrated model. Our proposed model facilitates the emergence of lexical knowledge with combinatoriality by performing category formation using multimodal sensory-motor information and enabling semiotic communication through the exchange of word sequences among agents in a unified model. Furthermore, the model enables an agent to predict sensory-motor information for unobserved situations by combining words associated with categories in each modality. We conducted two experiments with two humanoid robots in a simulated environment to evaluate our proposed model. The results demonstrated that the agents can acquire lexical knowledge with combinatoriality through interpersonal cross-situational learning based on the Metropolis-Hastings naming game and cross-situational learning. Furthermore, our results indicate that the lexical knowledge developed using our proposed model exhibits generalization performance for novel situations through interpersonal cross-modal inference.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

Learning a generalizable bimanual manipulation policy is extremely challenging for embodied agents due to the large action space and the need for coordinated arm movements. Existing approaches rely on Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models to acquire bimanual policies. However, transferring knowledge from single-arm datasets or pre-trained VLA models often fails to generalize effectively, primarily due to the scarcity of bimanual data and the fundamental differences between single-arm and bimanual manipulation. In this paper, we propose a novel bimanual foundation policy by fine-tuning the leading text-to-video models to predict robot trajectories and training a lightweight diffusion policy for action generation. Given the lack of embodied knowledge in text-to-video models, we introduce a two-stage paradigm that fine-tunes independent text-to-flow and flow-to-video models derived from a pre-trained text-to-video model. Specifically, optical flow serves as an intermediate variable, providing a concise representation of subtle movements between images. The text-to-flow model predicts optical flow to concretize the intent of language instructions, and the flow-to-video model leverages this flow for fine-grained video prediction. Our method mitigates the ambiguity of language in single-stage text-to-video prediction and significantly reduces the robot-data requirement by avoiding direct use of low-level actions. In experiments, we collect high-quality manipulation data for real dual-arm robot, and the results of simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) trained via contrastive learning have achieved notable success in natural image tasks. However, their application in the medical domain remains limited due to the scarcity of openly accessible, large-scale medical image-text datasets. Existing medical VLMs either train on closed-source proprietary or relatively small open-source datasets that do not generalize well. Similarly, most models remain specific to a single or limited number of medical imaging domains, again restricting their applicability to other modalities. To address this gap, we introduce UniMed, a large-scale, open-source multi-modal medical dataset comprising over 5.3 million image-text pairs across six diverse imaging modalities: X-ray, CT, MRI, Ultrasound, Pathology, and Fundus. UniMed is developed using a data-collection framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to transform modality-specific classification datasets into image-text formats while incorporating existing image-text data from the medical domain, facilitating scalable VLM pretraining. Using UniMed, we trained UniMed-CLIP, a unified VLM for six modalities that significantly outperforms existing generalist VLMs and matches modality-specific medical VLMs, achieving notable gains in zero-shot evaluations. For instance, UniMed-CLIP improves over BiomedCLIP (trained on proprietary data) by an absolute gain of +12.61, averaged over 21 datasets, while using 3x less training data. To facilitate future research, we release UniMed dataset, training codes, and models at https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/UniMed-CLIP.

Time series forecasting is a long-standing and highly challenging research topic. Recently, driven by the rise of large language models (LLMs), research has increasingly shifted from purely time series methods toward harnessing textual modalities to enhance forecasting performance. However, the vast discrepancy between text and temporal data often leads current multimodal architectures to over-emphasise one modality while neglecting the other, resulting in information loss that harms forecasting performance. To address this modality imbalance, we introduce BALM-TSF (Balanced Multimodal Alignment for LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting), a lightweight time series forecasting framework that maintains balance between the two modalities. Specifically, raw time series are processed by the time series encoder, while descriptive statistics of raw time series are fed to an LLM with learnable prompt, producing compact textual embeddings. To ensure balanced cross-modal context alignment of time series and textual embeddings, a simple yet effective scaling strategy combined with a contrastive objective then maps these textual embeddings into the latent space of the time series embeddings. Finally, the aligned textual semantic embeddings and time series embeddings are together integrated for forecasting. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks show that, with minimal trainable parameters, BALM-TSF achieves state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and few-shot forecasting, confirming its ability to harness complementary information from text and time series. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/BALM-TSF.

Unified multimodal models (UMMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm in foundational computer vision research, demonstrating significant potential in both image understanding and generation. However, existing research in the face domain primarily focuses on coarse facial attribute understanding, with limited capacity to handle fine-grained facial attributes and without addressing generation capabilities. To overcome these limitations, we propose UniF^2ace, the first UMM tailored specifically for fine-grained face understanding and generation. In general, we train UniF^2ace on a self-constructed, specialized dataset utilizing two mutually beneficial diffusion techniques and a two-level mixture-of-experts architecture. Specifically, we first build a large-scale facial dataset, UniF^2ace-130K, which contains 130K image-text pairs with one million question-answering pairs that span a wide range of facial attributes. Second, we establish a theoretical connection between discrete diffusion score matching and masked generative models, optimizing both evidence lower bounds simultaneously, which significantly improves the model's ability to synthesize facial details. Finally, we introduce both token-level and sequence-level mixture-of-experts, enabling efficient fine-grained representation learning for both understanding and generation tasks. Extensive experiments on UniF^2ace-130K demonstrate that UniF^2ace outperforms existing UMMs and generative models, achieving superior performance across both understanding and generation tasks.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Recently, Multi-Modal(MM) Large Language Models(LLMs) have unlocked many complex use-cases that require MM understanding (e.g., image captioning or visual question answering) and MM generation (e.g., text-guided image generation or editing) capabilities. To further improve the output fidelity of MM-LLMs we introduce the model-agnostic UniRAG technique that adds relevant retrieved information to prompts as few-shot examples during inference. Unlike the common belief that Retrieval Augmentation (RA) mainly improves generation or understanding of uncommon entities, our evaluation results on the MSCOCO dataset with common entities show that both proprietary models like GPT4 and Gemini-Pro and smaller open-source models like Llava, LaVIT, and Emu2 significantly enhance their generation quality when their input prompts are augmented with relevant information retrieved by MM retrievers like UniIR models.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), built on powerful language backbones, have enabled Multimodal In-Context Learning (MICL)-adapting to new tasks from a few multimodal demonstrations consisting of images, questions, and answers. Despite showing noticeable improvement on standard vision-language datasets, current MLLMs struggle to leverage visual information in the demonstrations. Specifically, they tend to neglect visual cues and over-rely on textual patterns, leading to mere text imitation rather than genuine multimodal adaptation. This behavior makes MICL still unimodal and largely restricts its practical utility. More importantly, this limitation is often concealed by the improved performance on tasks that do not require understanding the visual context. As a result, how to effectively enhance MICL ability and reliably evaluate the MICL performance remains underexplored. To address these issues, we first introduce Dynamic Attention Reallocation (DARA), an efficient fine-tuning strategy that encourages models to attend to the visual context by rebalancing attention across visual and textual tokens. In addition, we present TrueMICL, an MICL-dedicated dataset with both support and test sets that explicitly requires the integration of multimodal information-particularly visual content-for correct task completion. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our holistic solution, showcasing substantial improvements in the true multimodal in-context learning capabilities. Code and datasets are available at https://chenxshuo.github.io/true-micl-colm .

Multimodal models have demonstrated powerful capabilities in complex tasks requiring multimodal alignment including zero-shot classification and cross-modal retrieval. However, existing models typically rely on millions of paired multimodal samples, which are prohibitively expensive or infeasible to obtain in many domains. In this work, we explore the feasibility of building multimodal models with limited amount of paired data by aligning pretrained unimodal foundation models. We show that high-quality alignment is possible with as few as tens of thousands of paired samplesx2013less than 1% of the data typically used in the field. To achieve this, we introduce STRUCTURE, an effective regularization technique that preserves the neighborhood geometry of the latent space of unimodal encoders. Additionally, we show that aligning last layers is often suboptimal and demonstrate the benefits of aligning the layers with the highest representational similarity across modalities. These two components can be readily incorporated into existing alignment methods, yielding substantial gains across 24 zero-shot image classification and retrieval benchmarks, with average relative improvement of 51.6% in classification and 91.8% in retrieval tasks. Our results highlight the effectiveness and broad applicability of our framework for limited-sample multimodal learning and offer a promising path forward for resource-constrained domains.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

Neural networks often pack many unrelated concepts into a single neuron - a puzzling phenomenon known as 'polysemanticity' which makes interpretability much more challenging. This paper provides a toy model where polysemanticity can be fully understood, arising as a result of models storing additional sparse features in "superposition." We demonstrate the existence of a phase change, a surprising connection to the geometry of uniform polytopes, and evidence of a link to adversarial examples. We also discuss potential implications for mechanistic interpretability.

This paper aims to deal with the ignored real-world complexities in prior work on human motion forecasting, emphasizing the social properties of multi-person motion, the diversity of motion and social interactions, and the complexity of articulated motion. To this end, we introduce a novel task of stochastic multi-person 3D motion forecasting. We propose a dual-level generative modeling framework that separately models independent individual motion at the local level and social interactions at the global level. Notably, this dual-level modeling mechanism can be achieved within a shared generative model, through introducing learnable latent codes that represent intents of future motion and switching the codes' modes of operation at different levels. Our framework is general; we instantiate it with different generative models, including generative adversarial networks and diffusion models, and various multi-person forecasting models. Extensive experiments on CMU-Mocap, MuPoTS-3D, and SoMoF benchmarks show that our approach produces diverse and accurate multi-person predictions, significantly outperforming the state of the art.

Multimodal VAEs seek to model the joint distribution over heterogeneous data (e.g.\ vision, language), whilst also capturing a shared representation across such modalities. Prior work has typically combined information from the modalities by reconciling idiosyncratic representations directly in the recognition model through explicit products, mixtures, or other such factorisations. Here we introduce a novel alternative, the MEME, that avoids such explicit combinations by repurposing semi-supervised VAEs to combine information between modalities implicitly through mutual supervision. This formulation naturally allows learning from partially-observed data where some modalities can be entirely missing -- something that most existing approaches either cannot handle, or do so to a limited extent. We demonstrate that MEME outperforms baselines on standard metrics across both partial and complete observation schemes on the MNIST-SVHN (image-image) and CUB (image-text) datasets. We also contrast the quality of the representations learnt by mutual supervision against standard approaches and observe interesting trends in its ability to capture relatedness between data.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

Agents powered by large language models have shown remarkable abilities in solving complex tasks. However, most agent systems remain reactive, limiting their effectiveness in scenarios requiring foresight and autonomous decision-making. In this paper, we tackle the challenge of developing proactive agents capable of anticipating and initiating tasks without explicit human instructions. We propose a novel data-driven approach for this problem. Firstly, we collect real-world human activities to generate proactive task predictions. These predictions are then labeled by human annotators as either accepted or rejected. The labeled data is used to train a reward model that simulates human judgment and serves as an automatic evaluator of the proactiveness of LLM agents. Building on this, we develop a comprehensive data generation pipeline to create a diverse dataset, ProactiveBench, containing 6,790 events. Finally, we demonstrate that fine-tuning models with the proposed ProactiveBench can significantly elicit the proactiveness of LLM agents. Experimental results show that our fine-tuned model achieves an F1-Score of 66.47% in proactively offering assistance, outperforming all open-source and close-source models. These results highlight the potential of our method in creating more proactive and effective agent systems, paving the way for future advancements in human-agent collaboration.

While next-token prediction is considered a promising path towards artificial general intelligence, it has struggled to excel in multimodal tasks, which are still dominated by diffusion models (e.g., Stable Diffusion) and compositional approaches (e.g., CLIP combined with LLMs). In this paper, we introduce Emu3, a new suite of state-of-the-art multimodal models trained solely with next-token prediction. By tokenizing images, text, and videos into a discrete space, we train a single transformer from scratch on a mixture of multimodal sequences. Emu3 outperforms several well-established task-specific models in both generation and perception tasks, surpassing flagship models such as SDXL and LLaVA-1.6, while eliminating the need for diffusion or compositional architectures. Emu3 is also capable of generating high-fidelity video via predicting the next token in a video sequence. We simplify complex multimodal model designs by converging on a singular focus: tokens, unlocking great potential for scaling both during training and inference. Our results demonstrate that next-token prediction is a promising path towards building general multimodal intelligence beyond language. We open-source key techniques and models to support further research in this direction.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Medical diagnostic applications require models that can process multimodal medical inputs (images, patient histories, lab results) and generate diverse outputs including both textual reports and visual content (annotations, segmentation masks, and images). Despite this need, existing medical AI systems disrupt this unified process: medical image understanding models interpret images but cannot generate visual outputs, while medical image generation models synthesize images but cannot provide textual explanations. This leads to gaps in data representation, feature integration, and task-level multimodal capabilities. To this end, we propose a multi-level framework that draws inspiration from diagnostic workflows through the Observation-Knowledge-Analysis (OKA) paradigm. Specifically, at the observation level, we construct UniMed-5M, a dataset comprising over 5.6M samples that reformat diverse unimodal data into multimodal pairs for foundational observation. At the knowledge level, we propose Progressive Curriculum Learning that systematically introduces medical multimodal knowledge. At the analysis level, we introduce UniMedVL, the first medical unified multimodal model for the simultaneous analysis of image understanding and generation tasks within a single architecture. UniMedVL achieves superior performance on five medical image understanding benchmarks, while matching specialized models in generation quality across eight medical imaging modalities. Crucially, our unified architecture enables bidirectional knowledge sharing: generation tasks enhance visual understanding features, demonstrating that integrating traditionally separate capabilities within a single medical framework unlocks improvements across diverse medical vision-language tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/uni-medical/UniMedVL.

Multimodal learning is a rapidly growing research field that has revolutionized multitasking and generative modeling in AI. While much of the research has focused on dealing with unstructured data (e.g., language, images, audio, or video), structured data (e.g., tabular data, time series, or signals) has received less attention. However, many industry-relevant use cases involve or can be benefited from both types of data. In this work, we propose a modular, end-to-end multimodal learning method called MAGNUM, which can natively handle both structured and unstructured data. MAGNUM is flexible enough to employ any specialized unimodal module to extract, compress, and fuse information from all available modalities.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have gained significant attention due to their strong multimodal understanding capability. However, existing works rely heavily on modality-specific encoders, which usually differ in architecture and are limited to common modalities. In this paper, we present OneLLM, an MLLM that aligns eight modalities to language using a unified framework. We achieve this through a unified multimodal encoder and a progressive multimodal alignment pipeline. In detail, we first train an image projection module to connect a vision encoder with LLM. Then, we build a universal projection module (UPM) by mixing multiple image projection modules and dynamic routing. Finally, we progressively align more modalities to LLM with the UPM. To fully leverage the potential of OneLLM in following instructions, we also curated a comprehensive multimodal instruction dataset, including 2M items from image, audio, video, point cloud, depth/normal map, IMU and fMRI brain activity. OneLLM is evaluated on 25 diverse benchmarks, encompassing tasks such as multimodal captioning, question answering and reasoning, where it delivers excellent performance. Code, data, model and online demo are available at https://github.com/csuhan/OneLLM

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Large language models such as GPT-3 (Brown et al., 2020) can perform arbitrary tasks without undergoing fine-tuning after being prompted with only a few labeled examples. An arbitrary task can be reformulated as a natural language prompt, and a language model can be asked to generate the completion, indirectly performing the task in a paradigm known as prompt-based learning. To date, emergent prompt-based learning capabilities have mainly been demonstrated for unidirectional language models. However, bidirectional language models pre-trained on denoising objectives such as masked language modeling produce stronger learned representations for transfer learning. This motivates the possibility of prompting bidirectional models, but their pre-training objectives have made them largely incompatible with the existing prompting paradigm. We present SAP (Sequential Autoregressive Prompting), a technique that enables the prompting of bidirectional models. Utilizing the machine translation task as a case study, we prompt the bidirectional mT5 model (Xue et al., 2021) with SAP and demonstrate its few-shot and zero-shot translations outperform the few-shot translations of unidirectional models like GPT-3 and XGLM (Lin et al., 2021), despite mT5's approximately 50% fewer parameters. We further show SAP is effective on question answering and summarization. For the first time, our results demonstrate prompt-based learning is an emergent property of a broader class of language models, rather than only unidirectional models.

The scientific reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) has recently attracted significant attention. Time series, as a fundamental modality in scientific data, presents unique challenges that are often overlooked in current multimodal LLMs, which either encode numerical sequences as text or convert them into images. Such approaches may be insufficient for comprehensive scientific time series understanding and generation. Existing unified time series models typically specialise in either forecasting or analysis, and their effectiveness on non-periodic, heterogeneous scientific signals remains unclear. To address these gaps, we introduce SciTS, a benchmark spanning 12 scientific domains and 43 tasks, with over 50k+ instances, both univariate and multivariate signals ranging from 10^0 to 10^7 in length and up to 10~MHz in frequency. We benchmark 17 models, including text-only LLMs, multimodal LLMs, and unified time series models, and find that general-purpose LLMs exhibit stronger generalisability than specialised time series models, while representing time series as text or images limits their performance due to excessively long sequences and loss of numerical precision, respectively. We then introduce TimeOmni, a framework that equips LLMs with the ability to understand and generate time series while remaining compatible with general-purpose LLM training. This work fills a gap in both dedicated benchmarks and modelling frameworks for scientific time series, paving the way for LLMs to understand and generate complex temporal scientific data.

We present UniFluid, a unified autoregressive framework for joint visual generation and understanding leveraging continuous visual tokens. Our unified autoregressive architecture processes multimodal image and text inputs, generating discrete tokens for text and continuous tokens for image. We find though there is an inherent trade-off between the image generation and understanding task, a carefully tuned training recipe enables them to improve each other. By selecting an appropriate loss balance weight, the unified model achieves results comparable to or exceeding those of single-task baselines on both tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that employing stronger pre-trained LLMs and random-order generation during training is important to achieve high-fidelity image generation within this unified framework. Built upon the Gemma model series, UniFluid exhibits competitive performance across both image generation and understanding, demonstrating strong transferability to various downstream tasks, including image editing for generation, as well as visual captioning and question answering for understanding.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Multimodal models have gained significant success in recent years. Standard multimodal approaches often assume unchanged modalities from training stage to inference stage. In practice, however, many scenarios fail to satisfy such assumptions with missing modalities during inference, leading to limitations on where multimodal models can be applied. While existing methods mitigate the problem through reconstructing the missing modalities, it increases unnecessary computational cost, which could be just as critical, especially for large, deployed systems. To solve the problem from both sides, we propose a novel guidance network that promotes knowledge sharing during training, taking advantage of the multimodal representations to train better single-modality models for inference. Real-life experiment in violence detection shows that our proposed framework trains single-modality models that significantly outperform its traditionally trained counterparts while maintaining the same inference cost.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.