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license: apache-2.0
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---
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license: apache-2.0
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language:
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- en
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pipeline_tag: tabular-regression
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tags:
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- tubular-regression
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- demand-forecasting
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---
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# Shelfy: Tomorrow's Best Sellers
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**AI Demand Prediction** - Rank products by tomorrow's conversion rate. Top 30% products captures **50% of actual sales**.
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## Usage
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1. Enter today's product stats
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2. See tomorrow's predicted conversion + revenue
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3. **Stock Top 10% products → 2.5x ROI**
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## Business Results (42M events test)
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- Top 10% → **25.4%** sales - ROI: **2.5x** <br>
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- Top 30% → **52.1%** sales - ROI: **1.7x** <br>
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- **Test:** Oct 25-29 (blind) **Dataset:** 42M ecommerce events
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## Features
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- **Live prediction** - Tomorrow's conversion rate per product
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- **Demand signals** - High / Medium / Low
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- **production features** - Views, carts, momentum, intent ratios
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## Model Card
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- Architecture: XGBoost Regressor
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- Features (8): views(29%) + carts(29%) + cart momentum(13%) + user metrics(17%) + other(2%)
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- Target: Tomorrow's purchase rate (actual purchases / views)
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- Stability: 82% day-to-day Top 10% products overlap
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## Production Stack
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- Data: Clickstream (views, carts, purchases)
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- Stack: Python + XGBoost + FastAPI + PostgreSQL
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- Retraining: Weekly with shelfy's real data
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## Tech Stack
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- Model: shelfy_purchase_rate_v2.joblib (XGBoost)
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- UI: Gradio 4.44.0
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- Data: Ecommerce behavior (Oct 2019)
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---
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**Built for datastorm hackathon** | **Apache 2.0** | **Deployed 1/16/2026**
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