Daily Papers

Detectors of alignment failures screen deployed language models and score alignment benchmarks. Most are generative judges that spend a decoding pass on every criterion, and classifiers that read token probabilities, such as Llama Guard, still score one fixed label per call. Jev, a model trained with reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions (RLCD), answers many typed questions about one input with calibrated probabilities in a single call. Whether it detects alignment failures has not been measured. We present RLCDAlignBench, which benchmarks Jev on ten alignment failures: sycophancy, jailbreaks, deception, prompt injection, hallucination, privacy violation, social bias, reward hacking, concealing uncertainty, and power seeking. It spans 44 benchmarks and five target models, labelled by each benchmark's scorer and, on two, by humans. Many of these failures are relational, defined against a reference, such as the user's belief or an injected instruction, that the response alone does not reveal. Our key idea is therefore to vary what Jev is asked separately from what it sees: the question's wording and answer type on one side, the fields of the input on the other. A single generic question reaches a median AUROC of 0.886 zero-shot and beats supervised baselines on most benchmarks. Question wording matters little, while context matters more, mostly through fields that encode the label. Jev matches the reference scorer's agreement with human labels, surfaces label defects in existing benchmarks, and costs 63x less than LLM-judge scorers. Code and data: https://github.com/sumleo/RLCDAlignBench.

Models trained with reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions (RLCD), such as Jev, answer a typed question about an input, the state, with a probability, a choice, or a score, and software acts on the answer without a person reading it. Their robustness has not been measured: adversarial benchmarks score what a model generates or executes, whereas a typed model generates nothing and returns a well-formed answer even when manipulated. Measurement is also hard, because identical requests can return different answers, most available labels come from the model itself, and the API preprocesses each request out of view. Our key idea is to score each attacked decision against the model's own clean decision rather than against labels, and to read it against the change caused by an identical re-run. Building on this, we introduce JevAdvBench, to our knowledge the first adversarial benchmark for RLCD models, with 812 typed questions over 66 scenarios, and a black-box attack suite of 9,744 single-edit variants that each edit one part of a request, with billed input tokens confirming that the edit reached the model. On jev-1.13.0, rewording stays within 1.2 percentage points of the re-run baseline, and fields outside the schema never reach the model. In contrast, one unverified opinion appended to the state flips 12.1% of decisions, statistically tied with the strongest injected command (10.1%), and pushes 38% of confident answers below the 0.8 confidence threshold that routes them to human review. Applications built on RLCD models should therefore treat the state as untrusted, argued input. Project website: https://JevAdvBench.github.io/JevAdvBench/

Decision models such as Jev answer questions with probabilities, which are only useful if they are calibrated. Open-source reproductions rely on supervised fine-tuning plus temperature scaling, while reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) makes reasoning models overconfident. We present a working implementation of reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions (RLCD) for reasoning models: the model samples a rationale, and we score the answer distribution it commits to afterwards with a strictly proper scoring rule. A variance identity shows that scoring the mixture of several samples rewards disagreeing rationales, and that RLVR is exactly this mixture objective without its diversity term. Optimized naively, the per-rationale objective either switches reasoning off or is drowned out by policy-gradient noise, which leads to a two-stage recipe: calibrate, then reinforce. With Qwen3-1.7B on two reasoning tasks (3 seeds, paired tests), RLCD matches or beats SFT, RFT/STaR and GRPO (each temperature-scaled) in accuracy and beats all of them in selective prediction; on GSM8K answer verification a single query decides \gvTwoCovFive\% of the items at le5\% error, versus \gvGrpoCovFive\% for GRPO. When uncertainty comes from annotator disagreement, RLCD provably cannot beat cross-entropy. Code and results: https://github.com/ZimmyGao/openjev-rlcd.

Large Language Models excel at reasoning and generation but their autoregressive, token-by-token inference makes them unnecessarily slow, expensive, and poorly calibrated for the many routine decisions (routing, gating, scoring, classification) that modern AI systems require at sub-second latency. A growing class of models addresses this gap: System 1 decision models, architectures that map an input directly to a typed, structured decision in a single forward pass. This guide provides a comprehensive, practitioner-oriented treatment of the field. We propose a five-family taxonomy covering encoder-based classifiers, reward models, non-autoregressive decision engines, contrastive decision models, and extraction models, and we provide in-depth coverage of each family's architecture, training methodology, and deployment trade-offs. A central theme is calibration: we develop the theory of proper scoring rules, analyze Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions (RLCD), and examine recently discovered phenomena including IIA violations, ordinal-scale bias, and few-shot recalibration under distribution shift. On the integration side, we describe how System 1 models serve as decision infrastructure within agentic workflows and System 1 + System 2 cascades that route between fast and slow models based on calibrated confidence. The guide covers 18 application domains, maps the rapidly growing open-source ecosystem (over 70 model reproductions in weeks), provides runnable code throughout, and includes a practitioner's checklist, an open-source model zoo, and 22 self-assessment questions with detailed answers. Spanning 190 references, it is intended as a unified entry point for researchers and engineers working at the intersection of fast decision-making, calibration, and production AI systems.

We introduce StartLux-Decision, decision models from 0.8B to 27B parameters that combine efficient single-pass prediction with adaptive, confidence-guided reasoning. The Instant models use bidirectional attention in full-attention layers to improve decision accuracy while keeping single-pass inference. The AutoThink models invoke explicit reasoning for uncertain decisions and answer confident cases directly. A three-stage training pipeline establishes shared decision capabilities, specializes the two variants, and equips AutoThink with reasoning through reasoning supervision and reinforcement learning. We introduce Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Deliberative Decisions (RLCD^2), which uses a frozen model and proper scoring rules to reward improvements in decision probability quality and applies a soft penalty to overlong reasoning traces. RLCD^2 raises the share of reasoning traces that terminate within the generation limit by up to 48 percentage points and cuts average reasoning length by up to 65%, while largely preserving decision accuracy. On the public subset of Decision Index 0.3, the Instant models outperform the strongest evaluated comparable-scale open-weight decision models by 7.4-16.9 points, and the 27B AutoThink model reaches 73.4. We also introduce DecisionPivot, a programmatically verifiable benchmark of computational decisions built from contrast pairs that differ in a single answer-changing detail. On DecisionPivot, AutoThink outperforms its Instant counterparts by 11.5-18.4 points in pair accuracy and leads among evaluated systems. The models run on vLLM, llama.cpp and MLX, with quantized variants for lower memory use.

Typed decision models answer schema-constrained questions about a text in one forward pass and return probabilities meant to be thresholded. We ask whether biomedical sentence encoders trained for retrieval are good starting points for such models. We present SBERT2S1, which converts Sentence-Transformers encoders into bi-encoder, cross-head (C) and prior-fused residual (PFR) decision models, together with BIODECIDE, a biomedical typed-decision suite, and MEDLINE-S1, 243k training decisions derived from NLM indexing. Across six parent-retriever pairs, retrieval training improves zero-shot matching of content-bearing options. After fine-tuning, its effect depends on the head: across five pairs and three training-set sizes, retrieval training significantly helps PFR, which keeps the retrieval prior, in 10 of 15 comparisons, but helps C in one and hurts it in five. A matched grid of two heads and five training objectives shows that C outperforms PFR under every objective, and that the released RLCD recipe of open System One models trails cross-entropy by 2.5-3.0 points. The deficit stems mainly from its reward normalisation, which inflates the noisy score-function term 3.6-15-fold; an unbiased leave-one-out estimator recovers most of the gap. After temperature scaling, no objective is clearly better calibrated than cross-entropy. We release the code, the MEDLINE-S1 labels and a model.

Reinforcement Learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a primary learning paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of multi-modal large language models (MLLMs). However, during RL training, the enormous state space of MLLM and sparse rewards often leads to entropy collapse, policy degradation, or over-exploitation of suboptimal behaviors. This necessitates an exploration strategy that maintains productive stochasticity while avoiding the drawbacks of uncontrolled random sampling, yielding inefficient exploration. In this paper, we propose CalibRL, a hybrid-policy RLVR framework that supports controllable exploration with expert guidance, enabled by two key mechanisms. First, a distribution-aware advantage weighting scales updates by group rareness to calibrate the distribution, therefore preserving exploration. Meanwhile, the asymmetric activation function (LeakyReLU) leverages the expert knowledge as a calibration baseline to moderate overconfident updates while preserving their corrective direction. CalibRL increases policy entropy in a guided manner and clarifies the target distribution by estimating the on-policy distribution through online sampling. Updates are driven by these informative behaviors, avoiding convergence to erroneous patterns. Importantly, these designs help alleviate the distributional mismatch between the model's policy and expert trajectories, thereby achieving a more stable balance between exploration and exploitation. Extensive experiments across eight benchmarks, including both in-domain and out-of-domain settings, demonstrate consistent improvements, validating the effectiveness of our controllable hybrid-policy RLVR training. Code is available at https://github.com/zhh6425/CalibRL.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) often suffer from overconfidence when expressing their uncertainty. Confidence-aware reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising way to optimize calibration. However, it relies on on-policy rollouts and is thus constrained by the model's pre-RL confidence distribution, which we term confidence prior. In this work, we reveal that off-the-shelf LRMs exhibit a confidence prior heavily concentrated on a few high values, which persists throughout RL. Theoretically, we prove that this concentration suppresses policy gradient updates for rarely sampled confidence values and inflates the lower bound on expected Brier risk. To overcome this exploration bottleneck, we propose CalibSFT, a plug-and-play supervised fine-tuning stage that shapes a calibrated confidence prior with broad support before RL. For each question, CalibSFT constructs confidence targets combining its success rate with response-level correctness, which provably preserves proper-scoring optimality, and then balances training responses across the confidence spectrum to enable diverse confidence exploration during RL. To learn from incorrect responses without imitating their reasoning, CalibSFT introduces correctness-conditional supervision, guiding confidence across all responses while supervising reasoning only on correct ones. Across 16 mathematical and general reasoning benchmarks, incorporating CalibSFT reduces calibration errors and improves discrimination across five representative RL algorithms while preserving comparable accuracy. Furthermore, CalibSFT delivers practical benefits for downstream selective prediction and model routing. Our code is available at https://github.com/ml-stat-Sustech/verbalized-confidence-training.

Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent's ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.

We introduce Iterated Bellman Calibration, a simple, model-agnostic, post-hoc procedure for calibrating off-policy value predictions in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. Bellman calibration requires that states with similar predicted long-term returns exhibit one-step returns consistent with the Bellman equation under the target policy. We adapt classical histogram and isotonic calibration to the dynamic, counterfactual setting by repeatedly regressing fitted Bellman targets onto a model's predictions, using a doubly robust pseudo-outcome to handle off-policy data. This yields a one-dimensional fitted value iteration scheme that can be applied to any value estimator. Our analysis provides finite-sample guarantees for both calibration and prediction under weak assumptions, and critically, without requiring Bellman completeness or realizability.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability. In practice it degrades calibration, and existing remedies address epistemic uncertainty, where a model's confidence accompanies a verifiably correct or incorrect answer. We study aleatoric forecasting, where the forecast itself is the output and the label is one stochastic outcome, taking NFL in-game win probability as a testbed with the betting market as a reference. Rewarding the realized per-play outcome fails, because the single outcome is a noisy target and the policy gradient corrupts the chain of thought. We introduce a verifiable, label-free reward, a state-conditioned empirical win rate estimated from past outcomes, that removes the label noise, and we keep the gradient off the reasoning, by direct prediction or a gradient mask, so it cannot be corrupted. Trained with this reward alone, without human labels or supervised fine-tuning, a 7B model reaches the calibration of the betting market by direct prediction and is better calibrated than a zero-shot frontier model. That frontier model and a tabular estimator reach the same Brier score as this model, identifying the market's small remaining edge as live in-game information beyond their shared inputs. Masking the gradient, rather than dropping the chain of thought, preserves reasoning from which the forecast follows, which ordinary chain-of-thought training corrupts.

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any analogous reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models.

We study a game between liquidity provider and liquidity taker agents interacting in an over-the-counter market, for which the typical example is foreign exchange. We show how a suitable design of parameterized families of reward functions coupled with shared policy learning constitutes an efficient solution to this problem. By playing against each other, our deep-reinforcement-learning-driven agents learn emergent behaviors relative to a wide spectrum of objectives encompassing profit-and-loss, optimal execution and market share. In particular, we find that liquidity providers naturally learn to balance hedging and skewing, where skewing refers to setting their buy and sell prices asymmetrically as a function of their inventory. We further introduce a novel RL-based calibration algorithm which we found performed well at imposing constraints on the game equilibrium. On the theoretical side, we are able to show convergence rates for our multi-agent policy gradient algorithm under a transitivity assumption, closely related to generalized ordinal potential games.

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) significantly enhances large language models (LLMs) reasoning but severely suffers from calibration degeneration, where models become excessively over-confident in incorrect answers. Previous studies devote to directly incorporating calibration objective into existing optimization target. However, our theoretical analysis demonstrates that there exists a fundamental gradient conflict between the optimization for maximizing policy accuracy and minimizing calibration error. Building on this insight, we propose DCPO, a simple yet effective framework that systematically decouples reasoning and calibration objectives. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our DCPO not only preserves accuracy on par with GRPO but also achieves the best calibration performance and substantially mitigates the over-confidence issue. Our study provides valuable insights and practical solution for more reliable LLM deployment.

Reliable large language models (LLMs) must not only produce accurate answers but also express confidence that faithfully reflects their probability of being correct. Such calibration is essential for identifying uncertain predictions and supporting reliable decision-making in real-world deployment. Recent studies incorporate calibration learning into reinforcement learning (RL), jointly optimizing answer correctness and verbalized confidence using ground-truth correctness supervision. However, their reliance on labeled data limits their applicability in practical test-time settings, where ground-truth labels are unavailable and calibration may need to adapt to newly encountered target tasks. To address this challenge, we propose Test-Time Calibration Learning (TTCL), a label-free framework that jointly adapts reasoning accuracy and verbalized confidence directly on unlabeled target-task data. Specifically, TTCL derives self-supervision signals for both correctness and calibration from multiple model-generated responses, enabling calibration learning at test time without ground-truth labels. Theoretical analysis further establishes TTCL as a bounded surrogate for the ideal calibration objective. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning and factual question answering demonstrate that TTCL consistently improves both accuracy and calibration across diverse models and tasks. On base models, TTCL achieves an average relative accuracy improvement of +40.13% and an ECE reduction of +70.80% across eight benchmarks. Moreover, TTCL can further improve both accuracy and calibration for already calibrated models under domain shift, particularly when source-domain calibration transfers poorly to target tasks. In the math-to-factQA setting, TTCL achieves an average relative accuracy gain of +20.35% and reduces ECE by +53.83%. The source code is released at https://github.com/tmlr-group/TTCL.

State-of-the-art reasoning models utilize long chain-of-thought (CoT) to solve increasingly complex problems using more test-time computation. In this work, we explore a long CoT setting where the model makes up to K successive attempts at solving a problem, in which each attempt is allowed to build on earlier ones after the model receives a hard verifier feedback. This motivates RL methods that can harness per-attempt rewards by carefully weighting individual attempts. We study optimizing the Verification@K reward (the model succeeds by the K-th attempt) and show that naively weighing the attempts by their pass/fail results in biased gradients. We introduce Calibrated Attempt-Level (CAL) GRPO by devising a weighing strategy to obtain unbiased gradients while maintaining small variance. Our theory reveals how incorporating per-attempt rewards influence the training and the eventual Verification@K performance. Experiments, baselines, and ablations on synthetic and real data corroborate our theory and the benefits of CAL-GRPO over vanilla GRPO as well as naive weighting.

Extrinsic calibration is essential for multi-sensor fusion, existing methods rely on structured targets or fully-excited data, limiting real-world applicability. Online calibration further suffers from weak excitation, leading to unreliable estimates. To address these limitations, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based extrinsic calibration framework that formulates extrinsic calibration as a decision-making problem, directly optimizes SE(3) extrinsics to enhance odometry accuracy. Our approach leverages a probabilistic Bingham distribution to model 3D rotations, ensuring stable optimization while inherently retaining quaternion symmetry. A trajectory alignment reward mechanism enables robust calibration without structured targets by quantitatively evaluating estimated tightly-coupled trajectory against a reference trajectory. Additionally, an automated data selection module filters uninformative samples, significantly improving efficiency and scalability for large-scale datasets. Extensive experiments on UAVs, UGVs, and handheld platforms demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional optimization-based approaches, achieving high-precision calibration even under weak excitation conditions. Our framework simplifies deployment on diverse robotic platforms by eliminating the need for high-quality initial extrinsics and enabling calibration from routine operating data. The code is available at https://github.com/APRIL-ZJU/learn-to-calibrate.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have shown promise in tackling complex tasks by interacting dynamically with the environment. Existing work primarily focuses on behavior cloning from expert demonstrations or preference learning through exploratory trajectory sampling. However, these methods often struggle to address long-horizon tasks, where suboptimal actions accumulate step by step, causing agents to deviate from correct task trajectories. To address this, we highlight the importance of timely calibration and the need to automatically construct calibration trajectories for training agents. We propose Step-Level Trajectory Calibration (STeCa), a novel framework for LLM agent learning. Specifically, STeCa identifies suboptimal actions through a step-level reward comparison during exploration. It constructs calibrated trajectories using LLM-driven reflection, enabling agents to learn from improved decision-making processes. We finally leverage these calibrated trajectories with successful trajectories for reinforced training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STeCa significantly outperforms existing methods. Further analysis highlights that timely calibration enables agents to complete tasks with greater robustness. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/STeCa.

Search agents repeatedly make short decisions about relevance, evidence sufficiency, and search actions. Using generative language models for these decisions introduces latency and unreliable confidence. We present SearchJev, a fast and calibrated System-1 model that separates search decisions from System-2 reasoning and generation. Given a search state and a decision schema, SearchJev directly scores legal options without autoregressive output generation. We propose Soft-Label Learning for Calibrated Decisions (SLCD) to learn decision probabilities from uncertain supervision and calibrate their confidence. In a dual-system search agent, SearchJev handles short decisions and delegates uncertain judgments to System 2, which retains planning, query generation, and answer composition. We also introduce SearchDecision-Bench, a benchmark unifying six types of search decisions for training and evaluation. On SearchDecision-Bench, SEARCHJEV improves decision quality over same-size Qwen3.5 autoregressive models, achieves 5.2-5.3 times faster decisions, and reduces average expected calibration error by 41-74%. On BrowseComp-Plus, the dual-system agents achieve a 3.7-4.7 times speedup in active search time while improving answer accuracy from 45% to up to 54%.

Large language models increasingly collaborate with humans and peer AI agents whose contributions may be incomplete, inconsistent, or incorrect. Effective collaboration requires calibrated trust, whereby decisions to rely on, verify, or assist a partner adapt rationally as empirical evidence accumulates. We investigate whether models translate partner evidence into appropriate reliance policies. We introduce a benchmark of 324 scenarios across 23 collaboration categories. Each scenario involves three sequential decisions with explicit transition dynamics, feedback emissions, and cost schedules, permitting exact analytical evaluation of choices against their expected consequences over the remaining interaction. Evaluating seven models alongside 36 controlled-history probes, we dissociate evidence sensitivity from normatively appropriate action. While the strongest frontier model approaches near-optimal decisions, other models exhibit recurring pathologies: procuring excessive safeguards, purchasing verification tests with zero expected value of information, prioritizing immediate savings over cooperative learning, and misallocating assistance to suboptimal channels. Supplying explicit posterior distributions resolves certain errors while introducing new failure modes. Calibrated trust in autonomous agents critically demands coupling empirical evidence with forward-looking decision utility.

Reward models (RMs) play a crucial role in Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback by serving as proxies for human preferences in aligning large language models. In this paper, we identify a model preference bias in RMs, where they systematically assign disproportionately high scores to responses from certain policy models. This bias distorts ranking evaluations and leads to unfair judgments. To address this issue, we propose a calibration method named CHatbot Arena calibrated Reward Modeling (CHARM) that leverages Elo scores from the Chatbot Arena leaderboard to mitigate RM overvaluation. We also introduce a Mismatch Degree metric to measure this preference bias. Our approach is computationally efficient, requiring only a small preference dataset for continued training of the RM. We conduct extensive experiments on reward model benchmarks and human preference alignment. Results demonstrate that our calibrated RMs (1) achieve improved evaluation accuracy on RM-Bench and the Chat-Hard domain of RewardBench, and (2) exhibit a stronger correlation with human preferences by producing scores more closely aligned with Elo rankings. By mitigating model preference bias, our method provides a generalizable and efficient solution for building fairer and more reliable reward models.

Reinforcement learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) learns from preference signals, while standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) directly learns from reward signals. Preferences arguably contain less information than rewards, which makes preference-based RL seemingly more difficult. This paper theoretically proves that, for a wide range of preference models, we can solve preference-based RL directly using existing algorithms and techniques for reward-based RL, with small or no extra costs. Specifically, (1) for preferences that are drawn from reward-based probabilistic models, we reduce the problem to robust reward-based RL that can tolerate small errors in rewards; (2) for general arbitrary preferences where the objective is to find the von Neumann winner, we reduce the problem to multiagent reward-based RL which finds Nash equilibria for factored Markov games under a restricted set of policies. The latter case can be further reduce to adversarial MDP when preferences only depend on the final state. We instantiate all reward-based RL subroutines by concrete provable algorithms, and apply our theory to a large class of models including tabular MDPs and MDPs with generic function approximation. We further provide guarantees when K-wise comparisons are available.

As language models improve and become increasingly deployed to solve a variety of tasks, trustworthiness becomes essential. Calibration is a good proxy for trust: well-calibrated confidence estimates help inform the risk versus reward tradeoff when trusting a specific model output. Unfortunately, even as models improve, they remain poorly calibrated, often biasing towards overconfidence. Additionally, calibration can be gamed: a policy that always predicts the base rate is perfectly calibrated, but completely uninformative. To resolve this, we develop a new metric, expected utility renormalized by the oracle (EURO), that balances calibration and informativeness. We also propose a general-purpose activation-based confidence, utility, and trust estimation protocol (ACUTE) to appropriately adjudicate uncertainty. The ACUTE protocol provides flexible, sample-efficient, and compute-efficient confidence estimators for 3 tasks including multiple choice question answering, tool-calling, and scientific document summarization across 6 models from 4 model families. ACUTE outperforms strong baselines on EURO, while maintaining low calibration error. Taken together, our work shows that equipping LLMs with the ACUTE protocol can improve calibration, utility, and trustworthiness in numerous settings.

LLMs are increasingly being used for complex problems which are not necessarily resolved in a single response, but require interacting with an environment to acquire information. In these scenarios, LLMs must reason about inherent cost-uncertainty tradeoffs in when to stop exploring and commit to an answer. For instance, on a programming task, an LLM should test a generated code snippet if it is uncertain about the correctness of that code; the cost of writing a test is nonzero, but typically lower than the cost of making a mistake. In this work, we show that we can induce LLMs to explicitly reason about balancing these cost-uncertainty tradeoffs, then perform more optimal environment exploration. We formalize multiple tasks, including information retrieval and coding, as sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty. Each problem has latent environment state that can be reasoned about via a prior which is passed to the LLM agent. We introduce a framework called Calibrate-Then-Act (CTA), where we feed the LLM this additional context to enable it to act more optimally. This improvement is preserved even under RL training of both the baseline and CTA. Our results on information-seeking QA and on a simplified coding task show that making cost-benefit tradeoffs explicit with CTA can help agents discover more optimal decision-making strategies.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) enhances LLM reasoning but often induces overconfidence, where incorrect responses yield lower perplexity than correct ones, degrading relative calibration as described by the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Existing approaches either yield limited improvements in calibration or sacrifice gains in reasoning accuracy. We first prove that this degradation in GRPO-style algorithms stems from their uncertainty-agnostic advantage estimation, which inevitably misaligns optimization gradients with calibration. This leads to improved accuracy at the expense of degraded calibration. We then propose Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization (CAPO). It adopts a logistic AUC surrogate loss that is theoretically consistent and admits regret bound, enabling uncertainty-aware advantage estimation. By further incorporating a noise masking mechanism, CAPO achieves stable learning dynamics that jointly optimize calibration and accuracy. Experiments on multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that CAPO-1.5B significantly improves calibration by up to 15% while achieving accuracy comparable to or better than GRPO, and further boosts accuracy on downstream inference-time scaling tasks by up to 5%. Moreover, when allowed to abstain under low-confidence conditions, CAPO achieves a Pareto-optimal precision-coverage trade-off, highlighting its practical value for hallucination mitigation.

In goal-reaching reinforcement learning (RL), the optimal value function has a particular geometry, called quasimetric structure. This paper introduces Quasimetric Reinforcement Learning (QRL), a new RL method that utilizes quasimetric models to learn optimal value functions. Distinct from prior approaches, the QRL objective is specifically designed for quasimetrics, and provides strong theoretical recovery guarantees. Empirically, we conduct thorough analyses on a discretized MountainCar environment, identifying properties of QRL and its advantages over alternatives. On offline and online goal-reaching benchmarks, QRL also demonstrates improved sample efficiency and performance, across both state-based and image-based observations.

We study the problem of nonepisodic reinforcement learning (RL) for nonlinear dynamical systems, where the system dynamics are unknown and the RL agent has to learn from a single trajectory, i.e., without resets. We propose Nonepisodic Optimistic RL (NeoRL), an approach based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. NeoRL uses well-calibrated probabilistic models and plans optimistically w.r.t. the epistemic uncertainty about the unknown dynamics. Under continuity and bounded energy assumptions on the system, we provide a first-of-its-kind regret bound of O(Gamma_T T) for general nonlinear systems with Gaussian process dynamics. We compare NeoRL to other baselines on several deep RL environments and empirically demonstrate that NeoRL achieves the optimal average cost while incurring the least regret.

Reinforcement learning is the method of choice to train models in sampling-based setups with binary outcome feedback, such as navigation, code generation, and mathematical problem solving. In such settings, models implicitly induce a likelihood over correct rollouts. However, we observe that reinforcement learning does not maximize this likelihood, and instead optimizes only a lower-order approximation. Inspired by this observation, we introduce Maximum Likelihood Reinforcement Learning (MaxRL), a sampling-based framework to approximate maximum likelihood using reinforcement learning techniques. MaxRL addresses the challenges of non-differentiable sampling by defining a compute-indexed family of sample-based objectives that interpolate between standard reinforcement learning and exact maximum likelihood as additional sampling compute is allocated. The resulting objectives admit a simple, unbiased policy-gradient estimator and converge to maximum likelihood optimization in the infinite-compute limit. Empirically, we show that MaxRL Pareto-dominates existing methods in all models and tasks we tested, achieving up to 20x test-time scaling efficiency gains compared to its GRPO-trained counterpart. We also observe MaxRL to scale better with additional data and compute. Our results suggest MaxRL is a promising framework for scaling RL training in correctness based settings.

Reinforcement learning for long-horizon agents relies on purely retrospective training signals: credit is assigned only after observing environmental consequences, leaving the agent's belief at action time invisible to the gradient. We introduce Prospective Hindsight (PH), a self-calibrating training principle that augments any retrospective base method with a signal derived from the gap between the agent's prospective prediction (before feedback) and the retrospective evaluation (after feedback). This per-rollout surprise identifies samples where the agent's self-model is most inaccurate and amplifies their gradient contribution through a stop-gradient surprise-weighted advantage. Since the prospective predictor shares parameters with the policy, the two co-evolve, progressively shifting focus to the agent's remaining blind spots. We connect this principle to a privileged-information gap and show that minimizing the surprise residual provides a descent pathway on the agent's miscalibration rate; calibration thus emerges as a byproduct of optimization rather than from an added objective. On single-turn verifiable tasks and a multi-turn personal-agent task (under GRPO, on-policy distillation, and their combination), PH improves both task performance and calibration, with consistent gains across model scales. Notably, the dominant miscalibration mode shifts structurally between regimes, overconfident failures in single-turn, underconfident successes in multi-turn, yet the same training principle addresses both successfully.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

Two main challenges in Reinforcement Learning (RL) are designing appropriate reward functions and ensuring the safety of the learned policy. To address these challenges, we present a theoretical framework for Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) in constrained Markov decision processes. From a convex-analytic perspective, we extend prior results on reward identifiability and generalizability to both the constrained setting and a more general class of regularizations. In particular, we show that identifiability up to potential shaping (Cao et al., 2021) is a consequence of entropy regularization and may generally no longer hold for other regularizations or in the presence of safety constraints. We also show that to ensure generalizability to new transition laws and constraints, the true reward must be identified up to a constant. Additionally, we derive a finite sample guarantee for the suboptimality of the learned rewards, and validate our results in a gridworld environment.

We consider the problem of preference based reinforcement learning (PbRL), where, unlike traditional reinforcement learning, an agent receives feedback only in terms of a 1 bit (0/1) preference over a trajectory pair instead of absolute rewards for them. The success of the traditional RL framework crucially relies on the underlying agent-reward model, which, however, depends on how accurately a system designer can express an appropriate reward function and often a non-trivial task. The main novelty of our framework is the ability to learn from preference-based trajectory feedback that eliminates the need to hand-craft numeric reward models. This paper sets up a formal framework for the PbRL problem with non-markovian rewards, where the trajectory preferences are encoded by a generalized linear model of dimension d. Assuming the transition model is known, we then propose an algorithm with almost optimal regret guarantee of mathcal{O}left( SH d log (T / delta) T right). We further, extend the above algorithm to the case of unknown transition dynamics, and provide an algorithm with near optimal regret guarantee mathcal{O}((d + H^2 + |S|)dT +|mathcal{S||A|TH} ). To the best of our knowledge, our work is one of the first to give tight regret guarantees for preference based RL problems with trajectory preferences.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally expensive or lack calibration. We propose a three-stage pipeline to post-train LLMs to efficiently infer calibrated uncertainty estimates for their responses. First, we compute fine-grained entropy-based uncertainty scores on the training data, capturing the distributional variability of model outputs in embedding space. Second, these scores are calibrated via Platt scaling, producing reliable and human-interpretable uncertainty signals. Finally, the target LLM is post-trained via reinforcement learning to align its policy with these calibrated signals through a verifiable reward function. Unlike post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, our approach provides interpretable and computationally efficient uncertainty estimates at test time. Experiments show that models trained with our pipeline achieve better calibration than baselines and generalize to unseen tasks without further processing, suggesting that they learn a robust uncertainty reasoning behavior.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is pivotal for enabling large language models (LLMs) to generate long chains of thought (CoT) for complex tasks like math and reasoning. However, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), effective in many RL scenarios, fails in long CoT tasks. This paper identifies that value initialization bias and reward signal decay are the root causes of PPO's failure. We propose Value-Calibrated PPO (VC-PPO) to address these issues. In VC-PPO, the value model is pretrained to tackle initialization bias, and the Generalized Advantage Estimation (GAE) computation is decoupled between the actor and critic to mitigate reward signal decay. Experiments on the American Invitational Mathematics Examination (AIME) show that VC-PPO significantly boosts PPO performance. Ablation studies show that techniques in VC-PPO are essential in enhancing PPO for long CoT tasks.

We consider the reinforcement learning (RL) problem with general utilities which consists in maximizing a function of the state-action occupancy measure. Beyond the standard cumulative reward RL setting, this problem includes as particular cases constrained RL, pure exploration and learning from demonstrations among others. For this problem, we propose a simpler single-loop parameter-free normalized policy gradient algorithm. Implementing a recursive momentum variance reduction mechanism, our algorithm achieves mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-3}) and mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-2}) sample complexities for epsilon-first-order stationarity and epsilon-global optimality respectively, under adequate assumptions. We further address the setting of large finite state action spaces via linear function approximation of the occupancy measure and show a mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-4}) sample complexity for a simple policy gradient method with a linear regression subroutine.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs). Yet current RLVR methods often explore poorly, leading to premature convergence and entropy collapse. To address this challenge, we introduce Curiosity-Driven Exploration (CDE), a framework that leverages the model's own intrinsic sense of curiosity to guide exploration. We formalize curiosity with signals from both the actor and the critic: for the actor, we use perplexity over its generated response, and for the critic, we use the variance of value estimates from a multi-head architecture. Both signals serve as an exploration bonus within the RLVR framework to guide the model. Our theoretical analysis shows that the actor-wise bonus inherently penalizes overconfident errors and promotes diversity among correct responses; moreover, we connect the critic-wise bonus to the well-established count-based exploration bonus in RL. Empirically, our method achieves an approximate +3 point improvement over standard RLVR using GRPO/PPO on AIME benchmarks. Further analysis identifies a calibration collapse mechanism within RLVR, shedding light on common LLM failure modes.

Applying reinforcement learning (RL) to real-world problems is often made challenging by the inability to interact with the environment and the difficulty of designing reward functions. Offline RL addresses the first challenge by considering access to an offline dataset of environment interactions labeled by the reward function. In contrast, Preference-based RL does not assume access to the reward function and learns it from preferences, but typically requires an online interaction with the environment. We bridge the gap between these frameworks by exploring efficient methods for acquiring preference feedback in a fully offline setup. We propose Sim-OPRL, an offline preference-based reinforcement learning algorithm, which leverages a learned environment model to elicit preference feedback on simulated rollouts. Drawing on insights from both the offline RL and the preference-based RL literature, our algorithm employs a pessimistic approach for out-of-distribution data, and an optimistic approach for acquiring informative preferences about the optimal policy. We provide theoretical guarantees regarding the sample complexity of our approach, dependent on how well the offline data covers the optimal policy. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical performance of Sim-OPRL in various environments.

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has become a popular tool to control the risk of uncertain outcomes and ensure reliable performance in various sequential decision-making problems. While policy gradient methods have been developed for risk-sensitive RL, it remains unclear if these methods enjoy the same global convergence guarantees as in the risk-neutral case. In this paper, we consider a class of dynamic time-consistent risk measures, called Expected Conditional Risk Measures (ECRMs), and derive policy gradient updates for ECRM-based objective functions. Under both constrained direct parameterization and unconstrained softmax parameterization, we provide global convergence and iteration complexities of the corresponding risk-averse policy gradient algorithms. We further test risk-averse variants of REINFORCE and actor-critic algorithms to demonstrate the efficacy of our method and the importance of risk control.

Metacognition is a critical component of intelligence that describes the ability to monitor and regulate one's own cognitive processes. Yet LLMs exhibit systemic deficiencies in key metacognitive faculties: they hallucinate with high confidence, fail to recognize knowledge boundaries, and misrepresent their internal uncertainty--undermining trustworthiness and reliability. Since monitoring task performance and adapting behavior accordingly are central to metacognition, we posit that models capable of accurately judging their own performance are better positioned to improve it. We operationalize this idea via two novel mechanisms: reinforcement learning with metacognitive feedback (RLMF), a paradigm to refine completion rankings during preference optimization based on the quality of a model's self-judgments of performance, and metacognitive data selection, which uses similar self-judgments to identify high-value training examples, outperforming naive active learning. We apply these innovations to the problem of faithful calibration (FC), a task that is itself fundamentally metacognitive: the goal is to align expressed with intrinsic uncertainty, difficult even for frontier LLMs. We adopt a two-stage, decoupled approach, first using these methods to calibrate the faithfulness of models' self-reported confidence scores, then mapping to natural, context-adaptable linguistic uncertainty via targeted output editing. Extensive experiments show RLMF achieves generalizable, state-of-the-art FC on diverse tasks while preserving accuracy. Further, RLMF surpasses standard RL by up to 63% while enhancing models' ability to assess and express their own capability limits. This positions RLMF as a promising paradigm to enhance LLM metacognition toward improved abilities and alignment, and suggests metacognitive performance as an effective RL signal to overcome limits of prior intrinsic feedback methods.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training is crucial for LLM alignment and reasoning, but existing policy-based methods, such as PPO and DPO, can fall short of fixing shortcuts inherited from pre-training. In this work, we introduce Qsharp, a value-based algorithm for KL-regularized RL that guides the reference policy using the optimal regularized Q function. We propose to learn the optimal Q function using distributional RL on an aggregated online dataset. Unlike prior value-based baselines that guide the model using unregularized Q-values, our method is theoretically principled and provably learns the optimal policy for the KL-regularized RL problem. Empirically, Qsharp outperforms prior baselines in math reasoning benchmarks while maintaining a smaller KL divergence to the reference policy. Theoretically, we establish a reduction from KL-regularized RL to no-regret online learning, providing the first bounds for deterministic MDPs under only realizability. Thanks to distributional RL, our bounds are also variance-dependent and converge faster when the reference policy has small variance. In sum, our results highlight Qsharp as an effective approach for post-training LLMs, offering both improved performance and theoretical guarantees. The code can be found at https://github.com/jinpz/q_sharp.

Preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) is an approach that enables RL agents to learn from preference, which is particularly useful when formulating a reward function is challenging. Existing PbRL methods generally involve a two-step procedure: they first learn a reward model based on given preference data and then employ off-the-shelf reinforcement learning algorithms using the learned reward model. However, obtaining an accurate reward model solely from preference information, especially when the preference is from human teachers, can be difficult. Instead, we propose a PbRL algorithm that directly learns from preference without requiring any reward modeling. To achieve this, we adopt a contrastive learning framework to design a novel policy scoring metric that assigns a high score to policies that align with the given preferences. We apply our algorithm to offline RL tasks with actual human preference labels and show that our algorithm outperforms or is on par with the existing PbRL methods. Notably, on high-dimensional control tasks, our algorithm surpasses offline RL methods that learn with ground-truth reward information. Finally, we show that our algorithm can be successfully applied to fine-tune large language models.

System One models output calibrated probabilities over typed answers such as categorical choices, ordinal levels, or binary outcomes, via a non-generative interface. Software can act on these probabilities through thresholds, cost-weighted choices, and escalation rules. Consequently, if these probabilities are miscalibrated or wording-sensitive, the software ma take unintended actions leaving human operators with no textual rationale to inspect. Current evaluations largely report accuracy and calibration on public classification datasets without a clear reference. We present TypedBench, a benchmark for typed decision models like Jev built from seven policy-labelled generators and nine evaluation suites. We report accuracy as median and range across paraphrases, and calibration error relative to the finite-sample noise floor of a matched, perfectly calibrated predictor. We assess probability quality through selective prediction, ordinal proper scoring rules, and realised cost under asymmetric cost matrices. We evaluate a hosted model, an open encoder, and a family of open decoders spanning 0.8B-9B parameters on identical items. The hosted model follows the stated policy but is wording-sensitive and systematically underconfident; under asymmetric costs, using its probabilities can be worse than taking its top answer. Decoders route exactly and are slow as options or questions are added. The decoder is least accurate on policy questions and degrades with more options. Overall, typed decision models must be evaluated jointly on policy adherence, wording robustness, probability quality, and induced decision outcomes.

Reward functions are difficult to design and often hard to align with human intent. Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms address these problems by learning reward functions from human feedback. However, the majority of preference-based RL methods na\"ively combine supervised reward models with off-the-shelf RL algorithms. Contemporary approaches have sought to improve performance and query complexity by using larger and more complex reward architectures such as transformers. Instead of using highly complex architectures, we develop a new and parameter-efficient algorithm, Inverse Preference Learning (IPL), specifically designed for learning from offline preference data. Our key insight is that for a fixed policy, the Q-function encodes all information about the reward function, effectively making them interchangeable. Using this insight, we completely eliminate the need for a learned reward function. Our resulting algorithm is simpler and more parameter-efficient. Across a suite of continuous control and robotics benchmarks, IPL attains competitive performance compared to more complex approaches that leverage transformer-based and non-Markovian reward functions while having fewer algorithmic hyperparameters and learned network parameters. Our code is publicly released.

Specifying rewards for reinforcement learned (RL) agents is challenging. Preference-based RL (PbRL) mitigates these challenges by inferring a reward from feedback over sets of trajectories. However, the effectiveness of PbRL is limited by the amount of feedback needed to reliably recover the structure of the target reward. We present the PRIor Over Rewards (PRIOR) framework, which incorporates priors about the structure of the reward function and the preference feedback into the reward learning process. Imposing these priors as soft constraints on the reward learning objective reduces the amount of feedback required by half and improves overall reward recovery. Additionally, we demonstrate that using an abstract state space for the computation of the priors further improves the reward learning and the agent's performance.

Finding optimal solution paths for combinatorial puzzles like the Rubik's Cube, sliding tile puzzles, and Lights Out remains a classical challenge in artificial intelligence. Heuristic search algorithms, such as A* , guarantee path optimality only when using an admissible heuristic-one that never overestimates the true remaining cost-to-go. Deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods like DeepCubeA train deep neural networks to approximate cost-to-go heuristics. However, standard mean-squared error (MSE) training regularly yields overestimations, violating admissibility and compromising solution optimality. In this paper, we introduce a generalizable framework for learning validation-calibrated admissible neural heuristics. We train a value network using an underestimating Admissible Bellman Operator combined with an Asymmetric Loss function to penalize overestimation. To account for residual neural function approximation errors, we propose a post-hoc calibration safety offset computed over validation scrambles. We demonstrate that our calibrated neural heuristics achieve no observed admissibility violations under the evaluation protocol and preserve path optimality in practice while reducing search node expansions by up to 83.0% on a 2 by 2 Rubik's Cube, 19.9% on a 3 by 3 Lights Out grid, and 1.9% on an 8-Puzzle compared to standard analytical baselines.

Preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) aligns a robot behavior with human preferences via a reward function learned from binary feedback over agent behaviors. We show that dynamics-aware reward functions improve the sample efficiency of PbRL by an order of magnitude. In our experiments we iterate between: (1) learning a dynamics-aware state-action representation (z^{sa}) via a self-supervised temporal consistency task, and (2) bootstrapping the preference-based reward function from (z^{sa}), which results in faster policy learning and better final policy performance. For example, on quadruped-walk, walker-walk, and cheetah-run, with 50 preference labels we achieve the same performance as existing approaches with 500 preference labels, and we recover 83\% and 66\% of ground truth reward policy performance versus only 38\% and 21\%. The performance gains demonstrate the benefits of explicitly learning a dynamics-aware reward model. Repo: https://github.com/apple/ml-reed.

Training reinforcement learning (RL) agents on robotic tasks typically requires a large number of training samples. This is because training data often consists of noisy trajectories, whether from exploration or human-collected demonstrations, making it difficult to learn value functions that understand the effect of taking each action. On the other hand, recent behavior-cloning (BC) approaches have shown that predicting a sequence of actions enables policies to effectively approximate noisy, multi-modal distributions of expert demonstrations. Can we use a similar idea for improving RL on robotic tasks? In this paper, we introduce a novel RL algorithm that learns a critic network that outputs Q-values over a sequence of actions. By explicitly training the value functions to learn the consequence of executing a series of current and future actions, our algorithm allows for learning useful value functions from noisy trajectories. We study our algorithm across various setups with sparse and dense rewards, and with or without demonstrations, spanning mobile bi-manual manipulation, whole-body control, and tabletop manipulation tasks from BiGym, HumanoidBench, and RLBench. We find that, by learning the critic network with action sequences, our algorithm outperforms various RL and BC baselines, in particular on challenging humanoid control tasks.

Preference based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) removes the need to hand specify a reward function by learning a reward from preference feedback over policy behaviors. Current approaches to PbRL do not address the credit assignment problem inherent in determining which parts of a behavior most contributed to a preference, which result in data intensive approaches and subpar reward functions. We address such limitations by introducing a credit assignment strategy (Hindsight PRIOR) that uses a world model to approximate state importance within a trajectory and then guides rewards to be proportional to state importance through an auxiliary predicted return redistribution objective. Incorporating state importance into reward learning improves the speed of policy learning, overall policy performance, and reward recovery on both locomotion and manipulation tasks. For example, Hindsight PRIOR recovers on average significantly (p<0.05) more reward on MetaWorld (20%) and DMC (15%). The performance gains and our ablations demonstrate the benefits even a simple credit assignment strategy can have on reward learning and that state importance in forward dynamics prediction is a strong proxy for a state's contribution to a preference decision. Code repository can be found at https://github.com/apple/ml-rlhf-hindsight-prior.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of offline Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) with human feedback where feedback is available in the form of preference between trajectory pairs rather than explicit rewards. Our proposed algorithm consists of two main steps: (1) estimate the implicit reward using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) with general function approximation from offline data and (2) solve a distributionally robust planning problem over a confidence set around the MLE. We consider the general reward setting where the reward can be defined over the whole trajectory and provide a novel guarantee that allows us to learn any target policy with a polynomial number of samples, as long as the target policy is covered by the offline data. This guarantee is the first of its kind with general function approximation. To measure the coverage of the target policy, we introduce a new single-policy concentrability coefficient, which can be upper bounded by the per-trajectory concentrability coefficient. We also establish lower bounds that highlight the necessity of such concentrability and the difference from standard RL, where state-action-wise rewards are directly observed. We further extend and analyze our algorithm when the feedback is given over action pairs.

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

Language model calibration refers to the alignment between the confidence of the model and the actual performance of its responses. While previous studies point out the overconfidence phenomenon in Large Language Models (LLMs) and show that LLMs trained with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) are overconfident with a more sharpened output probability, in this study, we reveal that RLHF tends to lead models to express verbalized overconfidence in their own responses. We investigate the underlying cause of this overconfidence and demonstrate that reward models used for Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) exhibit inherent biases towards high-confidence scores regardless of the actual quality of responses. Building upon this insight, we propose two PPO variants: PPO-M: PPO with Calibrated Reward Modeling and PPO-C: PPO with Calibrated Reward Calculation. PPO-M integrates explicit confidence scores in reward model training, which calibrates reward models to better capture the alignment between response quality and verbalized confidence. PPO-C adjusts the reward score during PPO based on the difference between the current reward and the moving average of past rewards. Both PPO-M and PPO-C can be seamlessly integrated into the current PPO pipeline and do not require additional golden labels. We evaluate our methods on both Llama3-8B and Mistral-7B across six diverse datasets including multiple-choice and open-ended generation. Experiment results demonstrate that both of our methods can reduce calibration error and maintain performance comparable to standard PPO. We further show that they do not compromise model capabilities in open-ended conversation settings.

Simulations are attractive environments for training agents as they provide an abundant source of data and alleviate certain safety concerns during the training process. But the behaviours developed by agents in simulation are often specific to the characteristics of the simulator. Due to modeling error, strategies that are successful in simulation may not transfer to their real world counterparts. In this paper, we demonstrate a simple method to bridge this "reality gap". By randomizing the dynamics of the simulator during training, we are able to develop policies that are capable of adapting to very different dynamics, including ones that differ significantly from the dynamics on which the policies were trained. This adaptivity enables the policies to generalize to the dynamics of the real world without any training on the physical system. Our approach is demonstrated on an object pushing task using a robotic arm. Despite being trained exclusively in simulation, our policies are able to maintain a similar level of performance when deployed on a real robot, reliably moving an object to a desired location from random initial configurations. We explore the impact of various design decisions and show that the resulting policies are robust to significant calibration error.

In long-horizon tasks, recent agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) face a significant challenge that sparse, outcome-based rewards make it difficult to assign credit to intermediate steps. Previous methods mainly focus on creating dense reward signals to guide learning, either through traditional reinforcement learning techniques like inverse reinforcement learning or by using Process Reward Models for step-by-step feedback. In this paper, we identify a fundamental problem in the learning dynamics of LLMs: the magnitude of policy gradients is inherently coupled with the entropy, which leads to inefficient small updates for confident correct actions and potentially destabilizes large updates for uncertain ones. To resolve this, we propose Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients (EMPG), a framework that re-calibrates the learning signal based on step-wise uncertainty and the final task outcome. EMPG amplifies updates for confident correct actions, penalizes confident errors, and attenuates updates from uncertain steps to stabilize exploration. We further introduce a bonus term for future clarity that encourages agents to find more predictable solution paths. Through comprehensive experiments on three challenging agent tasks, WebShop, ALFWorld, and Deep Search, we demonstrate that EMPG achieves substantial performance gains and significantly outperforms strong policy gradient baselines. Project page is at https://empgseed-seed.github.io/

Reinforcement learning (RL) promises a framework for near-universal problem-solving. In practice however, RL algorithms are often tailored to specific benchmarks, relying on carefully tuned hyperparameters and algorithmic choices. Recently, powerful model-based RL methods have shown impressive general results across benchmarks but come at the cost of increased complexity and slow run times, limiting their broader applicability. In this paper, we attempt to find a unifying model-free deep RL algorithm that can address a diverse class of domains and problem settings. To achieve this, we leverage model-based representations that approximately linearize the value function, taking advantage of the denser task objectives used by model-based RL while avoiding the costs associated with planning or simulated trajectories. We evaluate our algorithm, MR.Q, on a variety of common RL benchmarks with a single set of hyperparameters and show a competitive performance against domain-specific and general baselines, providing a concrete step towards building general-purpose model-free deep RL algorithms.

Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) is a paradigm in which an RL agent learns to optimize a task using pair-wise preference-based feedback over trajectories, rather than explicit reward signals. While PbRL has demonstrated practical success in fine-tuning language models, existing theoretical work focuses on regret minimization and fails to capture most of the practical frameworks. In this study, we fill in such a gap between theoretical PbRL and practical algorithms by proposing a theoretical reward-agnostic PbRL framework where exploratory trajectories that enable accurate learning of hidden reward functions are acquired before collecting any human feedback. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that our algorithm requires less human feedback for learning the optimal policy under preference-based models with linear parameterization and unknown transitions, compared to the existing theoretical literature. Specifically, our framework can incorporate linear and low-rank MDPs with efficient sample complexity. Additionally, we investigate reward-agnostic RL with action-based comparison feedback and introduce an efficient querying algorithm tailored to this scenario.

From out-competing grandmasters in chess to informing high-stakes healthcare decisions, emerging methods from artificial intelligence are increasingly capable of making complex and strategic decisions in diverse, high-dimensional, and uncertain situations. But can these methods help us devise robust strategies for managing environmental systems under great uncertainty? Here we explore how reinforcement learning, a subfield of artificial intelligence, approaches decision problems through a lens similar to adaptive environmental management: learning through experience to gradually improve decisions with updated knowledge. We review where reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for improving evidence-informed adaptive management decisions even when classical optimization methods are intractable. For example, model-free deep RL might help identify quantitative decision strategies even when models are nonidentifiable. Finally, we discuss technical and social issues that arise when applying reinforcement learning to adaptive management problems in the environmental domain. Our synthesis suggests that environmental management and computer science can learn from one another about the practices, promises, and perils of experience-based decision-making.

Reinforcement learning with offline data suffers from Q-value extrapolation errors. To address this issue, we first demonstrate that linear extrapolation of the Q-function beyond the data range is particularly problematic. To mitigate this, we propose guiding the gradual decrease of Q-values outside the data range, which is achieved through reward scaling with layer normalization (RS-LN) and a penalization mechanism for infeasible actions (PA). By combining RS-LN and PA, we develop a new algorithm called PARS. We evaluate PARS across a range of tasks, demonstrating superior performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms in both offline training and online fine-tuning on the D4RL benchmark, with notable success in the challenging AntMaze Ultra task.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

While many real-world problems that might benefit from reinforcement learning, these problems rarely fit into the MDP mold: interacting with the environment is often expensive and specifying reward functions is challenging. Motivated by these challenges, prior work has developed data-driven approaches that learn entirely from samples from the transition dynamics and examples of high-return states. These methods typically learn a reward function from high-return states, use that reward function to label the transitions, and then apply an offline RL algorithm to these transitions. While these methods can achieve good results on many tasks, they can be complex, often requiring regularization and temporal difference updates. In this paper, we propose a method for offline, example-based control that learns an implicit model of multi-step transitions, rather than a reward function. We show that this implicit model can represent the Q-values for the example-based control problem. Across a range of state-based and image-based offline control tasks, our method outperforms baselines that use learned reward functions; additional experiments demonstrate improved robustness and scaling with dataset size.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Closed-loop decision-making systems (e.g., lending, screening, or recidivism risk assessment) often operate under fairness and service constraints while inducing feedback effects: decisions change who appears in the future, yielding non-stationary data and potentially amplifying disparities. We study online learning of a one-dimensional threshold policy from bandit feedback under demographic parity (DP) and, optionally, service-rate constraints. The learner observes only a scalar score each round and selects a threshold; reward and constraint residuals are revealed only for the chosen threshold. We propose Optimistic Feasible Search (OFS), a simple grid-based method that maintains confidence bounds for reward and constraint residuals for each candidate threshold. At each round, OFS selects a threshold that appears feasible under confidence bounds and, among those, maximizes optimistic reward; if no threshold appears feasible, OFS selects the threshold minimizing optimistic constraint violation. This design directly targets feasible high-utility thresholds and is particularly effective for low-dimensional, interpretable policy classes where discretization is natural. We evaluate OFS on (i) a synthetic closed-loop benchmark with stable contraction dynamics and (ii) two semi-synthetic closed-loop benchmarks grounded in German Credit and COMPAS, constructed by training a score model and feeding group-dependent acceptance decisions back into population composition. Across all environments, OFS achieves higher reward with smaller cumulative constraint violation than unconstrained and primal-dual bandit baselines, and is near-oracle relative to the best feasible fixed threshold under the same sweep procedure. Experiments are reproducible and organized with double-blind-friendly relative outputs.

As large language models (LLMs) are deployed in consequential settings such as medical question answering and legal reasoning, the ability to estimate when their outputs are likely to be correct is essential for safe and reliable use, requiring well-calibrated uncertainty. Standard reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) trains models with a binary correctness reward that is indifferent to confidence, providing no penalty for confident but wrong predictions and thereby degrading calibration. Recent work addresses this by training models to produce verbalized confidence scores alongside answers and rewarding agreement with correctness. However, verbalized confidence is calibrated at the token level and thus exhibits inconsistency across textual variations with same semantic meaning. We propose Calibration with Semantic Reward (CSR), a framework that calibrates language models directly in semantic space without a verbalized confidence interface. CSR combines the correctness reward with a novel semantic calibration reward that encourages exploitation among correct rollouts by promoting semantic agreement, and exploration among incorrect ones by discouraging spurious consistency. Experiments across three model families on HotpotQA (in-distribution) and TriviaQA, MSMARCO, and NQ-Open (out-of-distribution) show that CSR consistently achieves lower ECE and higher AUROC than verbalized-confidence baselines across nearly all settings, reducing ECE by up to 40% and improving AUROC by up to 31% over verbalized-confidence baselines, with calibration behavior generalizing robustly across all four evaluation settings.

Language agents acting over long horizons must maintain beliefs about tool states, object locations, graph edges, and subgoal dependencies. When these beliefs drift, failures can be fixed neither by longer reasoning traces nor by ordinary self-reflection, since the missing evidence lies in the environment. We formulate environment probing as a budgeted decision problem for structured agent world models: before acting, the agent may query the current value of one belief field, update its table, and pay one interaction step. We introduce EnvProbe, a simple scoring policy that combines task criticality, staleness, verbalized uncertainty, and dependency role. A type-stratified analysis separates the benefit of belief repair from the cost of displaced task actions and predicts different behavior for procedural and spatial beliefs. In three controlled environments with gold belief states, EnvProbe improves terminal world-state accuracy over periodic probing by 11.76 percentage points on procedural tool-dependency tasks, 3.79 points on spatial tasks, and 6.45 points overall. Ablations show that task-structural terms are the main source of the gains, while self-reported uncertainty is unreliable under confident wrong beliefs. The results suggest that agent calibration should be treated as an action-selection problem over environment evidence, not only as a model-internal reasoning problem.

We present a novel unified bilevel optimization-based framework, PARL, formulated to address the recently highlighted critical issue of policy alignment in reinforcement learning using utility or preference-based feedback. We identify a major gap within current algorithmic designs for solving policy alignment due to a lack of precise characterization of the dependence of the alignment objective on the data generated by policy trajectories. This shortfall contributes to the sub-optimal performance observed in contemporary algorithms. Our framework addressed these concerns by explicitly parameterizing the distribution of the upper alignment objective (reward design) by the lower optimal variable (optimal policy for the designed reward). Interestingly, from an optimization perspective, our formulation leads to a new class of stochastic bilevel problems where the stochasticity at the upper objective depends upon the lower-level variable. To demonstrate the efficacy of our formulation in resolving alignment issues in RL, we devised an algorithm named A-PARL to solve PARL problem, establishing sample complexity bounds of order O(1/T). Our empirical results substantiate that the proposed PARL can address the alignment concerns in RL by showing significant improvements (up to 63\% in terms of required samples) for policy alignment in large-scale environments of the Deepmind control suite and Meta world tasks.

We study training-inference mismatch in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for large language models, where rollouts are sampled by an inference engine while gradients are computed by a training engine, and the two engines assign different probabilities to the same tokens. To account for this discrepancy in policy updates, we introduce calibrated importance sampling (CIS). CIS is motivated by an empirically supported logit-displacement characterization that expresses the mismatch as an additive displacement varepsilon_t in log-odds, determined by the per-logit perturbation before the softmax, whose distribution is approximately invariant to token confidence. This characterization motivates a confidence-aware truncation: large positive displacements are truncated at a single constant threshold, which maps back to an importance-ratio cap that tightens as token confidence increases. Theoretically, we show that CIS replaces the unbounded second moment that governs the error of exact importance sampling with a term bounded by a constant, at the cost of a bias controlled by the truncated excess. In evaluation across three mixture-of-experts models and five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, CIS achieves the highest five-benchmark average on all three models among the evaluated baselines. Diagnostic analyses show that CIS places less truncation bias on low-confidence tokens than truncated importance sampling, while upward clipping of small importance weights reduces held-out accuracy.

Many control tasks exhibit similar dynamics that can be modeled as having common latent structure. Hidden-Parameter Markov Decision Processes (HiP-MDPs) explicitly model this structure to improve sample efficiency in multi-task settings. However, this setting makes strong assumptions on the observability of the state that limit its application in real-world scenarios with rich observation spaces. In this work, we leverage ideas of common structure from the HiP-MDP setting, and extend it to enable robust state abstractions inspired by Block MDPs. We derive instantiations of this new framework for both multi-task reinforcement learning (MTRL) and meta-reinforcement learning (Meta-RL) settings. Further, we provide transfer and generalization bounds based on task and state similarity, along with sample complexity bounds that depend on the aggregate number of samples across tasks, rather than the number of tasks, a significant improvement over prior work that use the same environment assumptions. To further demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method, we empirically compare and show improvement over multi-task and meta-reinforcement learning baselines.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has greatly advanced large reasoning models (LRMs), but it requires timely training on a huge fully-annotated dataset. To this end, data-efficient RLVR methods have been widely studied from two perspectives: (i) data selection methods identify a small subset of "golden" samples that yield near-full-data performance, but they rely on a pre-existing pool of labeled data. (ii) unsupervised RLVR methods train the model using its own internal supervision signals on large-scale unlabeled data, yet they exhibit suboptimal performance. Accordingly, we investigate the "pick in the dark" setup for RLVR, which aims to select, without prior supervision, unlabeled samples that are most beneficial for training and worthy of annotation. Through systematic analysis, we demonstrate that smart picks hinge on a well-calibrated uncertainty estimator to enable strategic partitioning of data for adaptive training regimes. Building on this insight, we propose PivotTrace, a three-way data triage framework that leverages attention dynamics to trace metacognitive pivots during reasoning. By precisely quantifying uncertainty through pivot density, PivotTrace achieves automated data routing to synergistically maximize both annotation and training efficiency. Empirically, PivotTrace surpasses the fully supervised LRM with only 29.3% annotated samples and 2.75 faster convergence.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce plausible but poorly-calibrated answers, limiting their reliability on reasoning-intensive tasks. We present Reinforcement Learning from Self-Feedback (RLSF), a post-training stage that uses the model's own confidence as an intrinsic reward, mimicking how humans learn in the absence of external feedback. After a frozen LLM generates several chain-of-thought solutions, we define and compute the confidence of each final answer span and rank the traces accordingly. These synthetic preferences are then used to fine-tune the policy with standard preference optimization, similar to RLHF yet requiring no human labels, gold answers, or externally curated rewards. RLSF simultaneously (i) refines the model's probability estimates -- restoring well-behaved calibration -- and (ii) strengthens step-by-step reasoning, yielding improved performance on arithmetic reasoning and multiple-choice question answering. By turning a model's own uncertainty into useful self-feedback, RLSF affirms reinforcement learning on intrinsic model behaviour as a principled and data-efficient component of the LLM post-training pipeline and warrents further research in intrinsic rewards for LLM post-training.

Incorporating expert demonstrations has empirically helped to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning (RL). This paper quantifies theoretically to what extent this extra information reduces RL's sample complexity. In particular, we study the demonstration-regularized reinforcement learning that leverages the expert demonstrations by KL-regularization for a policy learned by behavior cloning. Our findings reveal that using N^{E} expert demonstrations enables the identification of an optimal policy at a sample complexity of order mathcal{O}(Poly(S,A,H)/(varepsilon^2 N^{E})) in finite and mathcal{O}(Poly(d,H)/(varepsilon^2 N^{E})) in linear Markov decision processes, where varepsilon is the target precision, H the horizon, A the number of action, S the number of states in the finite case and d the dimension of the feature space in the linear case. As a by-product, we provide tight convergence guarantees for the behaviour cloning procedure under general assumptions on the policy classes. Additionally, we establish that demonstration-regularized methods are provably efficient for reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). In this respect, we provide theoretical evidence showing the benefits of KL-regularization for RLHF in tabular and linear MDPs. Interestingly, we avoid pessimism injection by employing computationally feasible regularization to handle reward estimation uncertainty, thus setting our approach apart from the prior works.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has been an effective approach for improving Large Language Models' reasoning in domains such as coding and mathematics. Here, we apply RLVR methods towards forecasting future real-world events - a challenging task for RL due to the very noisy (and delayed) outcomes involved. Using a novel dataset of recent questions from a prediction market, and accompanying relevant news headlines, we show that a compact (14B) reasoning model can be trained to match or surpass the predictive accuracy of frontier models like o1, while greatly improving probabilistic calibration. The model's performance is also practically meaningful: in a Polymarket trading simulation, we estimate that its bets would have yielded a return on investment of over 10% across all questions in the test set. We detail and compare approaches used in training our model, including augmenting our training-data with synthetic prediction questions, guardrails for learning stability, and median prediction sampling at inference-time.

We propose a method for meta-learning reinforcement learning algorithms by searching over the space of computational graphs which compute the loss function for a value-based model-free RL agent to optimize. The learned algorithms are domain-agnostic and can generalize to new environments not seen during training. Our method can both learn from scratch and bootstrap off known existing algorithms, like DQN, enabling interpretable modifications which improve performance. Learning from scratch on simple classical control and gridworld tasks, our method rediscovers the temporal-difference (TD) algorithm. Bootstrapped from DQN, we highlight two learned algorithms which obtain good generalization performance over other classical control tasks, gridworld type tasks, and Atari games. The analysis of the learned algorithm behavior shows resemblance to recently proposed RL algorithms that address overestimation in value-based methods.

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies that balance the expected reward and risk. In this paper, we present a novel risk-sensitive RL framework that employs an Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective under both linear and general function approximations, enriched by human feedback. These new formulations provide a principled way to guarantee safety in each decision making step throughout the control process. Moreover, integrating human feedback into risk-sensitive RL framework bridges the gap between algorithmic decision-making and human participation, allowing us to also guarantee safety for human-in-the-loop systems. We propose provably sample-efficient algorithms for this Iterated CVaR RL and provide rigorous theoretical analysis. Furthermore, we establish a matching lower bound to corroborate the optimality of our algorithms in a linear context.

Generalization in Reinforcement Learning (RL) aims to learn an agent during training that generalizes to the target environment. This paper studies RL generalization from a theoretical aspect: how much can we expect pre-training over training environments to be helpful? When the interaction with the target environment is not allowed, we certify that the best we can obtain is a near-optimal policy in an average sense, and we design an algorithm that achieves this goal. Furthermore, when the agent is allowed to interact with the target environment, we give a surprising result showing that asymptotically, the improvement from pre-training is at most a constant factor. On the other hand, in the non-asymptotic regime, we design an efficient algorithm and prove a distribution-based regret bound in the target environment that is independent of the state-action space.

Offline preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) typically operates in two phases: first, use human preferences to learn a reward model and annotate rewards for a reward-free offline dataset; second, learn a policy by optimizing the learned reward via offline RL. However, accurately modeling step-wise rewards from trajectory-level preference feedback presents inherent challenges. The reward bias introduced, particularly the overestimation of predicted rewards, leads to optimistic trajectory stitching, which undermines the pessimism mechanism critical to the offline RL phase. To address this challenge, we propose In-Dataset Trajectory Return Regularization (DTR) for offline PbRL, which leverages conditional sequence modeling to mitigate the risk of learning inaccurate trajectory stitching under reward bias. Specifically, DTR employs Decision Transformer and TD-Learning to strike a balance between maintaining fidelity to the behavior policy with high in-dataset trajectory returns and selecting optimal actions based on high reward labels. Additionally, we introduce an ensemble normalization technique that effectively integrates multiple reward models, balancing the tradeoff between reward differentiation and accuracy. Empirical evaluations on various benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of DTR over other state-of-the-art baselines.

Sequential decision making, commonly formalized as Markov Decision Process (MDP) optimization, is a important challenge in artificial intelligence. Two key approaches to this problem are reinforcement learning (RL) and planning. This paper presents a survey of the integration of both fields, better known as model-based reinforcement learning. Model-based RL has two main steps. First, we systematically cover approaches to dynamics model learning, including challenges like dealing with stochasticity, uncertainty, partial observability, and temporal abstraction. Second, we present a systematic categorization of planning-learning integration, including aspects like: where to start planning, what budgets to allocate to planning and real data collection, how to plan, and how to integrate planning in the learning and acting loop. After these two sections, we also discuss implicit model-based RL as an end-to-end alternative for model learning and planning, and we cover the potential benefits of model-based RL. Along the way, the survey also draws connections to several related RL fields, like hierarchical RL and transfer learning. Altogether, the survey presents a broad conceptual overview of the combination of planning and learning for MDP optimization.

Robust reinforcement learning is essential for deploying reinforcement learning algorithms in real-world scenarios where environmental uncertainty predominates. Traditional robust reinforcement learning often depends on rectangularity assumptions, where adverse probability measures of outcome states are assumed to be independent across different states and actions. This assumption, rarely fulfilled in practice, leads to overly conservative policies. To address this problem, we introduce a new time-constrained robust MDP (TC-RMDP) formulation that considers multifactorial, correlated, and time-dependent disturbances, thus more accurately reflecting real-world dynamics. This formulation goes beyond the conventional rectangularity paradigm, offering new perspectives and expanding the analytical framework for robust RL. We propose three distinct algorithms, each using varying levels of environmental information, and evaluate them extensively on continuous control benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that these algorithms yield an efficient tradeoff between performance and robustness, outperforming traditional deep robust RL methods in time-constrained environments while preserving robustness in classical benchmarks. This study revisits the prevailing assumptions in robust RL and opens new avenues for developing more practical and realistic RL applications.

Program synthesis aims to create accurate, executable code from natural language descriptions. This field has leveraged the power of reinforcement learning (RL) in conjunction with large language models (LLMs), significantly enhancing code generation capabilities. This integration focuses on directly optimizing functional correctness, transcending conventional supervised losses. While current literature predominantly favors policy-based algorithms, attributes of program synthesis suggest a natural compatibility with value-based methods. This stems from rich collection of off-policy programs developed by human programmers, and the straightforward verification of generated programs through automated unit testing (i.e. easily obtainable rewards in RL language). Diverging from the predominant use of policy-based algorithms, our work explores the applicability of value-based approaches, leading to the development of our B-Coder (pronounced Bellman coder). Yet, training value-based methods presents challenges due to the enormous search space inherent to program synthesis. To this end, we propose an initialization protocol for RL agents utilizing pre-trained LMs and a conservative Bellman operator to reduce training complexities. Moreover, we demonstrate how to leverage the learned value functions as a dual strategy to post-process generated programs. Our empirical evaluations demonstrated B-Coder's capability in achieving state-of-the-art performance compared with policy-based methods. Remarkably, this achievement is reached with minimal reward engineering effort, highlighting the effectiveness of value-based RL, independent of reward designs.

Most value function learning algorithms in reinforcement learning are based on the mean squared (projected) Bellman error. However, squared errors are known to be sensitive to outliers, both skewing the solution of the objective and resulting in high-magnitude and high-variance gradients. To control these high-magnitude updates, typical strategies in RL involve clipping gradients, clipping rewards, rescaling rewards, or clipping errors. While these strategies appear to be related to robust losses -- like the Huber loss -- they are built on semi-gradient update rules which do not minimize a known loss. In this work, we build on recent insights reformulating squared Bellman errors as a saddlepoint optimization problem and propose a saddlepoint reformulation for a Huber Bellman error and Absolute Bellman error. We start from a formalization of robust losses, then derive sound gradient-based approaches to minimize these losses in both the online off-policy prediction and control settings. We characterize the solutions of the robust losses, providing insight into the problem settings where the robust losses define notably better solutions than the mean squared Bellman error. Finally, we show that the resulting gradient-based algorithms are more stable, for both prediction and control, with less sensitivity to meta-parameters.

Many classic Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms rely on a Bellman operator, which involves an expectation over the next states, leading to the concept of bootstrapping. To introduce a form of pessimism, we propose to replace this expectation with an expectile. In practice, this can be very simply done by replacing the L_2 loss with a more general expectile loss for the critic. Introducing pessimism in RL is desirable for various reasons, such as tackling the overestimation problem (for which classic solutions are double Q-learning or the twin-critic approach of TD3) or robust RL (where transitions are adversarial). We study empirically these two cases. For the overestimation problem, we show that the proposed approach, ExpectRL, provides better results than a classic twin-critic. On robust RL benchmarks, involving changes of the environment, we show that our approach is more robust than classic RL algorithms. We also introduce a variation of ExpectRL combined with domain randomization which is competitive with state-of-the-art robust RL agents. Eventually, we also extend \ExpectRL with a mechanism for choosing automatically the expectile value, that is the degree of pessimism

For continuous action spaces, actor-critic methods are widely used in online reinforcement learning (RL). However, unlike RL algorithms for discrete actions, which generally model the optimal value function using the Bellman optimality operator, RL algorithms for continuous actions typically model Q-values for the current policy using the Bellman operator. These algorithms for continuous actions rely exclusively on policy updates for improvement, which often results in low sample efficiency. This study examines the effectiveness of incorporating the Bellman optimality operator into actor-critic frameworks. Experiments in a simple environment show that modeling optimal values accelerates learning but leads to overestimation bias. To address this, we propose an annealing approach that gradually transitions from the Bellman optimality operator to the Bellman operator, thereby accelerating learning while mitigating bias. Our method, combined with TD3 and SAC, significantly outperforms existing approaches across various locomotion and manipulation tasks, demonstrating improved performance and robustness to hyperparameters related to optimality. The code for this study is available at https://github.com/motokiomura/annealed-q-learning.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tackles sequential decision-making problems by creating agents that interacts with their environment. However, existing algorithms often view these problem as static, focusing on point estimates for model parameters to maximize expected rewards, neglecting the stochastic dynamics of agent-environment interactions and the critical role of uncertainty quantification. Our research leverages the Kalman filtering paradigm to introduce a novel and scalable sampling algorithm called Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) for deep reinforcement learning. This algorithm, grounded in Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC), efficiently draws samples from the posterior distribution of deep neural network parameters. Under mild conditions, we prove that the posterior samples generated by the LKTD algorithm converge to a stationary distribution. This convergence not only enables us to quantify uncertainties associated with the value function and model parameters but also allows us to monitor these uncertainties during policy updates throughout the training phase. The LKTD algorithm paves the way for more robust and adaptable reinforcement learning approaches.

Execution-based feedback like unit testing is widely used in the development of coding agents through test-time scaling (TTS) and reinforcement learning (RL). This paradigm requires scalable and reliable collection of unit test cases to provide accurate feedback, and the resulting feedback is often sparse and cannot effectively distinguish between trajectories that are both successful or both unsuccessful. In contrast, execution-free feedback from reward models can provide more fine-grained signals without depending on unit test cases. Despite this potential, execution-free feedback for realistic software engineering (SWE) agents remains underexplored. Aiming to develop versatile reward models that are effective across TTS and RL, however, we observe that two verifiers with nearly identical TTS performance can nevertheless yield very different results in RL. Intuitively, TTS primarily reflects the model's ability to select the best trajectory, but this ability does not necessarily generalize to RL. To address this limitation, we identify two additional aspects that are crucial for RL training: classification accuracy and calibration. We then conduct comprehensive controlled experiments to investigate how to train a robust reward model that performs well across these metrics. In particular, we analyze the impact of various factors such as training data scale, policy mixtures, and data source composition. Guided by these investigations, we introduce SWE-RM, an accurate and robust reward model adopting a mixture-of-experts architecture with 30B total parameters and 3B activated during inference. SWE-RM substantially improves SWE agents on both TTS and RL performance. For example, it increases the accuracy of Qwen3-Coder-Flash from 51.6% to 62.0%, and Qwen3-Coder-Max from 67.0% to 74.6% on SWE-Bench Verified using TTS, achieving new state-of-the-art performance among open-source models.

We consider reinforcement learning in an environment modeled by an episodic, finite, stage-dependent Markov decision process of horizon H with S states, and A actions. The performance of an agent is measured by the regret after interacting with the environment for T episodes. We propose an optimistic posterior sampling algorithm for reinforcement learning (OPSRL), a simple variant of posterior sampling that only needs a number of posterior samples logarithmic in H, S, A, and T per state-action pair. For OPSRL we guarantee a high-probability regret bound of order at most mathcal{O}(H^3SAT) ignoring polylog(HSAT) terms. The key novel technical ingredient is a new sharp anti-concentration inequality for linear forms which may be of independent interest. Specifically, we extend the normal approximation-based lower bound for Beta distributions by Alfers and Dinges [1984] to Dirichlet distributions. Our bound matches the lower bound of order Ω(H^3SAT), thereby answering the open problems raised by Agrawal and Jia [2017b] for the episodic setting.

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as the standard paradigm for improving reasoning capability of large language models, while Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has been a widely adopted module in pretraining. Combining them is a natural approach, yet current RL practices detach MTP gradients because joint training degrades the performance. We revisit this failure from an optimization perspective. We show that the per-step effect of MTP on the RL objective can be decomposed into two terms: a first-order correlation and a second-order perturbation penalty. This decomposition unifies three MTP training regimes: Detach, Cross-Entropy loss, and Policy loss, and explains why each succeeds or fails. Further analysis of policy loss reveals that, although it aligns with intuition, performance still degrades: the correlation term decays while the quadratic penalty persists. Guided by the analysis, we propose Optimal Coefficient Calibration (OCC), an adaptive scheme that tracks the optimal coefficient online via a log-probability proxy at negligible cost. Across six competition-level mathematical reasoning benchmarks, OCC consistently matches or exceeds the detach baseline, delivering improved joint MTP-RL training performance.

The utility of reinforcement learning is limited by the alignment of reward functions with the interests of human stakeholders. One promising method for alignment is to learn the reward function from human-generated preferences between pairs of trajectory segments, a type of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). These human preferences are typically assumed to be informed solely by partial return, the sum of rewards along each segment. We find this assumption to be flawed and propose modeling human preferences instead as informed by each segment's regret, a measure of a segment's deviation from optimal decision-making. Given infinitely many preferences generated according to regret, we prove that we can identify a reward function equivalent to the reward function that generated those preferences, and we prove that the previous partial return model lacks this identifiability property in multiple contexts. We empirically show that our proposed regret preference model outperforms the partial return preference model with finite training data in otherwise the same setting. Additionally, we find that our proposed regret preference model better predicts real human preferences and also learns reward functions from these preferences that lead to policies that are better human-aligned. Overall, this work establishes that the choice of preference model is impactful, and our proposed regret preference model provides an improvement upon a core assumption of recent research. We have open sourced our experimental code, the human preferences dataset we gathered, and our training and preference elicitation interfaces for gathering a such a dataset.

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-world problem.

While improving prediction accuracy has been the focus of machine learning in recent years, this alone does not suffice for reliable decision-making. Deploying learning systems in consequential settings also requires calibrating and communicating the uncertainty of predictions. To convey instance-wise uncertainty for prediction tasks, we show how to generate set-valued predictions from a black-box predictor that control the expected loss on future test points at a user-specified level. Our approach provides explicit finite-sample guarantees for any dataset by using a holdout set to calibrate the size of the prediction sets. This framework enables simple, distribution-free, rigorous error control for many tasks, and we demonstrate it in five large-scale machine learning problems: (1) classification problems where some mistakes are more costly than others; (2) multi-label classification, where each observation has multiple associated labels; (3) classification problems where the labels have a hierarchical structure; (4) image segmentation, where we wish to predict a set of pixels containing an object of interest; and (5) protein structure prediction. Lastly, we discuss extensions to uncertainty quantification for ranking, metric learning and distributionally robust learning.

Real-world reinforcement learning (RL) is often severely limited since typical RL algorithms heavily rely on the reset mechanism to sample proper initial states. In practice, the reset mechanism is expensive to implement due to the need for human intervention or heavily engineered environments. To make learning more practical, we propose a generic no-regret reduction to systematically design reset-free RL algorithms. Our reduction turns reset-free RL into a two-player game. We show that achieving sublinear regret in this two-player game would imply learning a policy that has both sublinear performance regret and sublinear total number of resets in the original RL problem. This means that the agent eventually learns to perform optimally and avoid resets. By this reduction, we design an instantiation for linear Markov decision processes, which is the first provably correct reset-free RL algorithm to our knowledge.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

In real-world applications of reinforcement learning, it is often challenging to obtain a state representation that is parsimonious and satisfies the Markov property without prior knowledge. Consequently, it is common practice to construct a state larger than necessary, e.g., by concatenating measurements over contiguous time points. However, needlessly increasing the dimension of the state may slow learning and obfuscate the learned policy. We introduce the notion of a minimal sufficient state in a Markov decision process (MDP) as the subvector of the original state under which the process remains an MDP and shares the same reward function as the original process. We propose a novel SEquEntial Knockoffs (SEEK) algorithm that estimates the minimal sufficient state in a system with high-dimensional complex nonlinear dynamics. In large samples, the proposed method achieves selection consistency. As the method is agnostic to the reinforcement learning algorithm being applied, it benefits downstream tasks such as policy learning. Empirical experiments verify theoretical results and show the proposed approach outperforms several competing methods regarding variable selection accuracy and regret.

Combinatorial Optimization underpins many real-world applications and yet, designing performant algorithms to solve these complex, typically NP-hard, problems remains a significant research challenge. Reinforcement Learning (RL) provides a versatile framework for designing heuristics across a broad spectrum of problem domains. However, despite notable progress, RL has not yet supplanted industrial solvers as the go-to solution. Current approaches emphasize pre-training heuristics that construct solutions but often rely on search procedures with limited variance, such as stochastically sampling numerous solutions from a single policy or employing computationally expensive fine-tuning of the policy on individual problem instances. Building on the intuition that performant search at inference time should be anticipated during pre-training, we propose COMPASS, a novel RL approach that parameterizes a distribution of diverse and specialized policies conditioned on a continuous latent space. We evaluate COMPASS across three canonical problems - Travelling Salesman, Capacitated Vehicle Routing, and Job-Shop Scheduling - and demonstrate that our search strategy (i) outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on 11 standard benchmarking tasks and (ii) generalizes better, surpassing all other approaches on a set of 18 procedurally transformed instance distributions.

Reinforcement learning (RL) typically models the interaction between the agent and environment as a Markov decision process (MDP), where the rewards that guide the agent's behavior are always observable. However, in many real-world scenarios, rewards are not always observable, which can be modeled as a monitored Markov decision process (Mon-MDP). Prior work on Mon-MDPs have been limited to simple, tabular cases, restricting their applicability to real-world problems. This work explores Mon-MDPs using function approximation (FA) and investigates the challenges involved. We show that combining function approximation with a learned reward model enables agents to generalize from monitored states with observable rewards, to unmonitored environment states with unobservable rewards. Therefore, we demonstrate that such generalization with a reward model achieves near-optimal policies in environments formally defined as unsolvable. However, we identify a critical limitation of such function approximation, where agents incorrectly extrapolate rewards due to overgeneralization, resulting in undesirable behaviors. To mitigate overgeneralization, we propose a cautious police optimization method leveraging reward uncertainty. This work serves as a step towards bridging this gap between Mon-MDP theory and real-world applications.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Recent focus in agentic reinforcement learning (RL) seeks to improve credit assignment in long-horizon tasks. One promising direction combines reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) and on-policy self-distillation (OPSD), integrating trajectory-level advantages with dense token-level supervision. This line of work often conditions a teacher model on privileged context, such as agentic skills, to score tokens generated by the student policy. Despite their progress, they largely overlook the on-policy evolution of agentic skills and the reliability of teacher supervision. Towards this end, we introduce Recursive Self-Improving Policy Optimization (RSIPO), a self-evolving agentic RL framework that enables agentic skills and the policy model to co-evolve throughout the training process. Specifically, RSIPO enables the policy itself to extract skills from completed trajectories and explicitly optimizes its skill-generation capability through trajectory replay. It further employs empirical Bayes shrinkage to dynamically calibrate the student's trust in teacher scores, accounting for the fact that skill-enhanced teacher guidance can sometimes be less reliable. Experiments with Qwen-family models on embodied interaction and search-based agentic tasks demonstrate that RSIPO outperforms all the compared baseline approaches. With Qwen2.5-7B as the base model, RSIPO achieves an average success rate of 98.6\% on ALFWorld, yielding absolute improvements of 2.5\% and 17.4\% over the second-best baseline and standard GRPO, respectively.

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms aim to balance exploiting the current best strategy with exploring new options that could lead to higher rewards. Most common RL algorithms use undirected exploration, i.e., select random sequences of actions. Exploration can also be directed using intrinsic rewards, such as curiosity or model epistemic uncertainty. However, effectively balancing task and intrinsic rewards is challenging and often task-dependent. In this work, we introduce a framework, MaxInfoRL, for balancing intrinsic and extrinsic exploration. MaxInfoRL steers exploration towards informative transitions, by maximizing intrinsic rewards such as the information gain about the underlying task. When combined with Boltzmann exploration, this approach naturally trades off maximization of the value function with that of the entropy over states, rewards, and actions. We show that our approach achieves sublinear regret in the simplified setting of multi-armed bandits. We then apply this general formulation to a variety of off-policy model-free RL methods for continuous state-action spaces, yielding novel algorithms that achieve superior performance across hard exploration problems and complex scenarios such as visual control tasks.

We study model-free Q-learning in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with stationary dynamics across episodes. We identify a central issue in nascent model-free posterior-sampling works: the reliance on delayed learning in order to prove theoretical guarantees. In particular, we identify three opportunities for faster learning - (i) value-function update order, (ii) update frequencies, and (iii) value-function initialization. Using Wang et al.'s RandomizedQ as a basis, we illustrate these changes and their individual (as well as cumulative) impact in multiple empirical studies. We find that our combined modifications, termed ReversedQ, improve scaled mean cumulative reward compared to RandomizedQ, from 9.53% to 78.78% in the Bidirectional Diabolical Combination Lock (BDCL), and from 21.76% to 61.81% in a chain MDP.

Policy gradient methods are reinforcement learning algorithms that adapt a parameterized policy by following a performance gradient estimate. Conventional policy gradient methods use Monte-Carlo techniques to estimate the gradient, which tend to have high variance, requiring many samples and resulting in slow convergence. We first propose a Bayesian framework for policy gradient, based on modeling the policy gradient as a Gaussian process. This reduces the number of samples needed to obtain accurate gradient estimates. Moreover, estimates of the natural gradient and a measure of the uncertainty in the gradient estimates, namely, the gradient covariance, are provided at little extra cost. Since the proposed framework considers system trajectories as its basic observable unit, it does not require the dynamics within trajectories to be of any particular form, and can be extended to partially observable problems. On the downside, it cannot exploit the Markov property when the system is Markovian. To address this, we supplement our Bayesian policy gradient framework with a new actor-critic learning model in which a Bayesian class of non-parametric critics, based on Gaussian process temporal difference learning, is used. Such critics model the action-value function as a Gaussian process, allowing Bayes rule to be used to compute the posterior distribution over action-value functions, conditioned on the observed data. Appropriate choices of the policy parameterization and of the prior covariance (kernel) between action-values yield closed-form expressions for the posterior of the gradient of the expected return with respect to the policy parameters. We perform detailed experimental comparisons of the proposed Bayesian policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms with classic Monte-Carlo based policy gradient methods, on a number of reinforcement learning problems.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a key approach for enhancing LLM reasoning.However, standard frameworks like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) typically employ a uniform rollout budget, leading to resource inefficiency. Moreover, existing adaptive methods often rely on instance-level metrics, such as task pass rates, failing to capture the model's dynamic learning state. To address these limitations, we propose CoBA-RL, a reinforcement learning algorithm designed to adaptively allocate rollout budgets based on the model's evolving capability. Specifically, CoBA-RL utilizes a Capability-Oriented Value function to map tasks to their potential training gains and employs a heap-based greedy strategy to efficiently self-calibrate the distribution of computational resources to samples with high training value. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach effectively orchestrates the trade-off between exploration and exploitation, delivering consistent generalization improvements across multiple challenging benchmarks. These findings underscore that quantifying sample training value and optimizing budget allocation are pivotal for advancing LLM post-training efficiency.

We introduce PACOH-RL, a novel model-based Meta-Reinforcement Learning (Meta-RL) algorithm designed to efficiently adapt control policies to changing dynamics. PACOH-RL meta-learns priors for the dynamics model, allowing swift adaptation to new dynamics with minimal interaction data. Existing Meta-RL methods require abundant meta-learning data, limiting their applicability in settings such as robotics, where data is costly to obtain. To address this, PACOH-RL incorporates regularization and epistemic uncertainty quantification in both the meta-learning and task adaptation stages. When facing new dynamics, we use these uncertainty estimates to effectively guide exploration and data collection. Overall, this enables positive transfer, even when access to data from prior tasks or dynamic settings is severely limited. Our experiment results demonstrate that PACOH-RL outperforms model-based RL and model-based Meta-RL baselines in adapting to new dynamic conditions. Finally, on a real robotic car, we showcase the potential for efficient RL policy adaptation in diverse, data-scarce conditions.

In value-based reinforcement learning methods such as deep Q-learning, function approximation errors are known to lead to overestimated value estimates and suboptimal policies. We show that this problem persists in an actor-critic setting and propose novel mechanisms to minimize its effects on both the actor and the critic. Our algorithm builds on Double Q-learning, by taking the minimum value between a pair of critics to limit overestimation. We draw the connection between target networks and overestimation bias, and suggest delaying policy updates to reduce per-update error and further improve performance. We evaluate our method on the suite of OpenAI gym tasks, outperforming the state of the art in every environment tested.

Reinforcement learning problems typically define the goal as maximizing the expected value of a scalar reward function. But, pairwise preferences are often easier to specify than scalar rewards, and they express certain goals that scalar rewards cannot. Methods for reinforcement learning with pairwise preferences have thus received growing interest. Unfortunately, these methods are inefficient in problems with long time horizons, and they lack guarantees on the performance of Markov policies relative to history-dependent policies, which bridge the theory and practice of reinforcement learning. We therefore propose the Markov decision contest as a new problem model for reinforcement learning with pairwise preferences. We prove that stationary Markov policies are optimal among all history-dependent policies, that solving a Markov decision contest exactly is in P, and that a simple iterative algorithm converges to an optimal policy at a sublinear rate. Lastly, in a set of high-dimensional decision problems with long time horizons, we show that our approximate algorithm is significantly more learning-efficient than prior work.

We provide a theoretical framework for Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF). Our analysis shows that when the true reward function is linear, the widely used maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) converges under both the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model and the Plackett-Luce (PL) model. However, we show that when training a policy based on the learned reward model, MLE fails while a pessimistic MLE provides policies with improved performance under certain coverage assumptions. Additionally, we demonstrate that under the PL model, the true MLE and an alternative MLE that splits the K-wise comparison into pairwise comparisons both converge. Moreover, the true MLE is asymptotically more efficient. Our results validate the empirical success of existing RLHF algorithms in InstructGPT and provide new insights for algorithm design. Furthermore, our results unify the problem of RLHF and max-entropy Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), and provide the first sample complexity bound for max-entropy IRL.

This paper develops a novel rating-based reinforcement learning approach that uses human ratings to obtain human guidance in reinforcement learning. Different from the existing preference-based and ranking-based reinforcement learning paradigms, based on human relative preferences over sample pairs, the proposed rating-based reinforcement learning approach is based on human evaluation of individual trajectories without relative comparisons between sample pairs. The rating-based reinforcement learning approach builds on a new prediction model for human ratings and a novel multi-class loss function. We conduct several experimental studies based on synthetic ratings and real human ratings to evaluate the effectiveness and benefits of the new rating-based reinforcement learning approach.

World models simulate dynamic environments, enabling agents to interact with diverse input modalities. Although recent advances have improved the visual quality and temporal consistency of video world models, their ability of accurately modeling human-specified actions remains under-explored. Reinforcement learning presents a promising approach for directly improving the suboptimal action-following capability of pre-trained models, assuming that an appropriate reward function can be defined. However, transferring reinforcement learning post-training methods to world model is impractical due to the prohibitive cost of large-scale preference annotations and the infeasibility of constructing rule-based video verifiers. To address this gap, we propose Reinforcement Learning with Inverse Rewards (RLIR), a post-training framework that derives verifiable reward signals by recovering input actions from generated videos using an Inverse Dynamics Model. By mapping high-dimensional video modality to a low-dimensional action space, RLIR provides an objective and verifiable reward for optimization via Group Relative Policy Optimization. Experiments across autoregressive and diffusion paradigms demonstrate 5-10% gains in action-following, up to 10% improvements in visual quality, and higher human preference scores, establishing RLIR as the first post-training method specifically designed to enhance action-following in video world models.

We introduce the framework of performative reinforcement learning where the policy chosen by the learner affects the underlying reward and transition dynamics of the environment. Following the recent literature on performative prediction~Perdomo et. al., 2020, we introduce the concept of performatively stable policy. We then consider a regularized version of the reinforcement learning problem and show that repeatedly optimizing this objective converges to a performatively stable policy under reasonable assumptions on the transition dynamics. Our proof utilizes the dual perspective of the reinforcement learning problem and may be of independent interest in analyzing the convergence of other algorithms with decision-dependent environments. We then extend our results for the setting where the learner just performs gradient ascent steps instead of fully optimizing the objective, and for the setting where the learner has access to a finite number of trajectories from the changed environment. For both settings, we leverage the dual formulation of performative reinforcement learning and establish convergence to a stable solution. Finally, through extensive experiments on a grid-world environment, we demonstrate the dependence of convergence on various parameters e.g. regularization, smoothness, and the number of samples.

While Reinforcement Learning ( RL) has made great strides towards solving increasingly complicated problems, many algorithms are still brittle to even slight environmental changes. Contextual Reinforcement Learning (cRL) provides a framework to model such changes in a principled manner, thereby enabling flexible, precise and interpretable task specification and generation. Our goal is to show how the framework of cRL contributes to improving zero-shot generalization in RL through meaningful benchmarks and structured reasoning about generalization tasks. We confirm the insight that optimal behavior in cRL requires context information, as in other related areas of partial observability. To empirically validate this in the cRL framework, we provide various context-extended versions of common RL environments. They are part of the first benchmark library, CARL, designed for generalization based on cRL extensions of popular benchmarks, which we propose as a testbed to further study general agents. We show that in the contextual setting, even simple RL environments become challenging - and that naive solutions are not enough to generalize across complex context spaces.

In many real-world multi-agent cooperative tasks, due to high cost and risk, agents cannot continuously interact with the environment and collect experiences during learning, but have to learn from offline datasets. However, the transition dynamics in the dataset of each agent can be much different from the ones induced by the learned policies of other agents in execution, creating large errors in value estimates. Consequently, agents learn uncoordinated low-performing policies. In this paper, we propose a framework for offline decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning, which exploits value deviation and transition normalization to deliberately modify the transition probabilities. Value deviation optimistically increases the transition probabilities of high-value next states, and transition normalization normalizes the transition probabilities of next states. They together enable agents to learn high-performing and coordinated policies. Theoretically, we prove the convergence of Q-learning under the altered non-stationary transition dynamics. Empirically, we show that the framework can be easily built on many existing offline reinforcement learning algorithms and achieve substantial improvement in a variety of multi-agent tasks.

We study reinforcement learning with linear function approximation and adversarially changing cost functions, a setup that has mostly been considered under simplifying assumptions such as full information feedback or exploratory conditions.We present a computationally efficient policy optimization algorithm for the challenging general setting of unknown dynamics and bandit feedback, featuring a combination of mirror-descent and least squares policy evaluation in an auxiliary MDP used to compute exploration bonuses.Our algorithm obtains an widetilde O(K^{6/7}) regret bound, improving significantly over previous state-of-the-art of widetilde O (K^{14/15}) in this setting. In addition, we present a version of the same algorithm under the assumption a simulator of the environment is available to the learner (but otherwise no exploratory assumptions are made), and prove it obtains state-of-the-art regret of widetilde O (K^{2/3}).

Recently, reward-conditioned reinforcement learning (RCRL) has gained popularity due to its simplicity, flexibility, and off-policy nature. However, we will show that current RCRL approaches are fundamentally limited and fail to address two critical challenges of RCRL -- improving generalization on high reward-to-go (RTG) inputs, and avoiding out-of-distribution (OOD) RTG queries during testing time. To address these challenges when training vanilla RCRL architectures, we propose Bayesian Reparameterized RCRL (BR-RCRL), a novel set of inductive biases for RCRL inspired by Bayes' theorem. BR-RCRL removes a core obstacle preventing vanilla RCRL from generalizing on high RTG inputs -- a tendency that the model treats different RTG inputs as independent values, which we term ``RTG Independence". BR-RCRL also allows us to design an accompanying adaptive inference method, which maximizes total returns while avoiding OOD queries that yield unpredictable behaviors in vanilla RCRL methods. We show that BR-RCRL achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Gym-Mujoco and Atari offline RL benchmarks, improving upon vanilla RCRL by up to 11%.

We generalise the problem of reward modelling (RM) for reinforcement learning (RL) to handle non-Markovian rewards. Existing work assumes that human evaluators observe each step in a trajectory independently when providing feedback on agent behaviour. In this work, we remove this assumption, extending RM to capture temporal dependencies in human assessment of trajectories. We show how RM can be approached as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem, where trajectories are treated as bags with return labels, and steps within the trajectories are instances with unseen reward labels. We go on to develop new MIL models that are able to capture the time dependencies in labelled trajectories. We demonstrate on a range of RL tasks that our novel MIL models can reconstruct reward functions to a high level of accuracy, and can be used to train high-performing agent policies.

As LLM-based judges become integral to industry applications, obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty estimates efficiently has become critical for production deployment. However, existing techniques, such as verbalized confidence and multi-generation methods, are often either poorly calibrated or computationally expensive. We introduce linear probes trained with a Brier score-based loss to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates from reasoning judges' hidden states, requiring no additional model training. We evaluate our approach on both objective tasks (reasoning, mathematics, factuality, coding) and subjective human preference judgments. Our results demonstrate that probes achieve superior calibration compared to existing methods with approx10x computational savings, generalize robustly to unseen evaluation domains, and deliver higher accuracy on high-confidence predictions. However, probes produce conservative estimates that underperform on easier datasets but may benefit safety-critical deployments prioritizing low false-positive rates. Overall, our work demonstrates that interpretability-based uncertainty estimation provides a practical and scalable plug-and-play solution for LLM judges in production.

Recent Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms making use of Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization as a core component have shown outstanding performance. Yet, only little is understood theoretically about why KL regularization helps, so far. We study KL regularization within an approximate value iteration scheme and show that it implicitly averages q-values. Leveraging this insight, we provide a very strong performance bound, the very first to combine two desirable aspects: a linear dependency to the horizon (instead of quadratic) and an error propagation term involving an averaging effect of the estimation errors (instead of an accumulation effect). We also study the more general case of an additional entropy regularizer. The resulting abstract scheme encompasses many existing RL algorithms. Some of our assumptions do not hold with neural networks, so we complement this theoretical analysis with an extensive empirical study.

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

Before taking actions in an environment with more than one intelligent agent, an autonomous agent may benefit from reasoning about the other agents and utilizing a notion of a guarantee or confidence about the behavior of the system. In this article, we propose a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithm CAMMARL, which involves modeling the actions of other agents in different situations in the form of confident sets, i.e., sets containing their true actions with a high probability. We then use these estimates to inform an agent's decision-making. For estimating such sets, we use the concept of conformal predictions, by means of which, we not only obtain an estimate of the most probable outcome but get to quantify the operable uncertainty as well. For instance, we can predict a set that provably covers the true predictions with high probabilities (e.g., 95%). Through several experiments in two fully cooperative multi-agent tasks, we show that CAMMARL elevates the capabilities of an autonomous agent in MARL by modeling conformal prediction sets over the behavior of other agents in the environment and utilizing such estimates to enhance its policy learning.

Extending Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) to real-world tasks often requires balancing objective and subjective evaluation criteria. However, many such tasks lack a single, unambiguous ground truth-making it difficult to define reliable reward signals for post-training language models. While traditional preference-based methods offer a workaround, they rely on opaque reward functions that are difficult to interpret and prone to spurious correlations. We introduce Rubrics as Rewards (RaR), a framework that uses structured, checklist-style rubrics as interpretable reward signals for on-policy training with GRPO. Our best RaR method yields up to a 28% relative improvement on HealthBench-1k compared to simple Likert-based approaches, while matching or surpassing the performance of reward signals derived from expert-written references. By treating rubrics as structured reward signals, we show that RaR enables smaller-scale judge models to better align with human preferences and sustain robust performance across model scales.

Online conformal prediction can fail when predictions shape actions and actions determine which outcomes enter calibration. Standard adaptive methods may retain marginal coverage while systematically miscovering the counterfactual outcomes of rarely selected actions. This paper formalizes the failure through counterfactual coverage and introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction, an inverse-propensity-weighted recursion that debiases calibration. A doubly robust variant further reduces nuisance bias to the product of outcome-model and propensity errors. Under positivity, the resulting coverage rate matches an information-theoretic lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing show that PW-OCP and DR-OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret without sacrificing prediction-set sharpness.

Learning from human feedback has been shown to be effective at aligning language models with human preferences. Past work has often relied on Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), which optimizes the language model using reward scores assigned from a reward model trained on human preference data. In this work we show how the recently introduced Sequence Likelihood Calibration (SLiC), can also be used to effectively learn from human preferences (SLiC-HF). Furthermore, we demonstrate this can be done with human feedback data collected for a different model, similar to off-policy, offline RL data. Automatic and human evaluation experiments on the TL;DR summarization task show that SLiC-HF significantly improves supervised fine-tuning baselines. Furthermore, SLiC-HF presents a competitive alternative to the PPO RLHF implementation used in past work while being much simpler to implement, easier to tune and more computationally efficient in practice.