Daily Papers

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) should answer from concrete image evidence rather than language priors, dataset shortcuts, or irrelevant visual context. Existing perception-aware post-training methods encourage image use through global perturbations or attention proxies, but they do not test whether a sampled answer causally depends on the local evidence that supports it. We propose Counterfactual Evidence Disentanglement (CED), a training-time evidence audit for VLM grounding. For each response, CED neutralizes an object-centric Evidence Region and compares the resulting support drop against matched non-evidence Regions. We combine this signal with answer correctness inside GRPO, rewarding correct answers that rely on the evidence path rather than shortcut or nuisance paths. CED uses weak object-level proposals, requires no question-specific evidence annotations, and adds no inference-time overhead. Across nine public benchmarks and four backbones, CED outperforms prior RL-based post-training methods, with targeted analyses verifying its object-centric signal.

Head avatar modeling requires jointly optimizing multiple objectives with different dominant effects on geometry, appearance, and cross-view consistency. However, their relative effectiveness varies across training states, while existing pipelines typically rely on fixed loss weights or handcrafted stage-wise schedules. A central challenge is therefore to identify which optimization direction is more beneficial at each training state. We propose a counterfactual route optimization framework for Gaussian head avatar modeling, which characterizes state-dependent optimization preference from the realized effects of alternative updates rather than predefined heuristic weighting. Starting from the same training state, we perform short-horizon route-restricted lookahead over geometry, appearance, and joint update routes and evaluate their outcomes under a unified utility. The resulting counterfactual evidence is factorized into a geometry--appearance preference and a residual joint advantage, separately capturing the relative preference between individual update directions and the additional benefit of coordinated optimization. We further amortize this offline evidence into a lightweight controller that directly estimates the current optimization preference and applies bounded modulation to the training objectives during full avatar optimization. Experiments on the NeRSemble dataset validate the effectiveness of the proposed design, consistently outperforming existing methods while preserving clearer local facial structures and finer details.

Vision-language systems combine images with retrieved text, but these sources can disagree or jointly fail to support an answer. Reliable models must identify the trustworthy source and abstain when neither is adequate. Existing post-training objectives score instances independently and therefore do not enforce coherent behavior under counterfactual evidence changes. We introduce CARGO-VL, a group-relative framework that optimizes matched variants covering aligned, image-correct, text-correct, and both-wrong (A/V/T/N) evidence states as one bundle. Its objective couples condition-wise correctness with transition rewards for answer invariance, source equivariance, and answer-to-abstention switching, while a primal-dual controller balances unsafe answers against excessive deferral. We also contribute XMC (eXtended Modal Conflict), a four-condition conflict training resource, and evaluate transfer on CMC-Bench and Modality-Bias. Across multiple seeds, CARGO-VL improves conflict handling, unsupported-answer avoidance, and modality balance over pointwise baselines. Ablations identify complementary benefits from relational transition signals and adaptive risk control, supporting counterfactual consistency as a practical objective for reliable multimodal evidence arbitration.

Accident, defect and outage investigations end with a decision that ordinary question answering never faces: whether the evidence gathered so far is enough to close the case. We study this decision for LLM investigators, which request evidence from a case file, revise their hypotheses, and either close the case with a conclusion grounded in what they read or leave it open and name what is missing. This judgment does not come with capability: an untrained 9B model overstates its evidence in 97% of its answers, and a frontier model that identifies the right cause in 84% of cases still overstates in 91% and closes 17 of the 41 cases whose official finding is "cause undetermined". Measuring it is also non-trivial: the source of a case largely predicts its label, and a rule that reads only the source reaches 83.0 balanced accuracy on our test cases. We therefore evaluate closure with three tests: closure accuracy, reported against this rule and within each source; evidence dependence, which removes the grounds of a conclusion and checks whether the model stops closing; and conclusion and gap quality, a judged checklist of what the model asserts and what it says is missing. We build Nautil, 731 audited cases from aviation, rail, maritime, chemical-safety and vehicle-defect reports and production server incidents, with teacher trajectories, an out-of-distribution test set and counterfactual evidence versions. Fine-tuning a 9B model on these trajectories makes its closures follow the evidence: removing the grounds lowers its closure rate by 26 points relative to a matched control, overstatement falls from 97% to 35%, and correct, non-overstated conclusions rise from 3% to 43%. Reinforcement learning that rewards only the closure decision then raises balanced accuracy from 69.2 to 83.3, on par with the teacher, and within-source accuracy from 60.4 to 74.1, at some cost in evidence dependence.

Many areas of AI research, such as language model interpretability and chain of thought faithfulness, seek to explain model behaviors. But what constitutes a "good" explanation? In this work, we evaluate explanations through the lens of counterfactual simulatability-whether the explanation is useful for predicting model behaviors on related counterfactual inputs. To this end, we introduce CHIVE (Counterfactual Hypothesis Investigation Via Edits), a novel agentic pipeline that identifies unexpected model behaviors in the wild and investigates them with counterfactual prompt edits. This yields thousands of high-quality explanations for naturally-occurring model behaviors along with supporting counterfactual evidence. We apply CHIVE in two ways. First, we evaluate whether common LLM interpretability techniques improve an agent's ability to predict counterfactual model behaviors. Surprisingly, we find no uplift from any of the interpretability techniques studied. Second, we use CHIVE to generate training data. We find that training models to predict outcomes of CHIVE-generated counterfactual experiments generalizes to various out-of-distribution settings. Overall, CHIVE automatically discovers explanations of naturally-occurring LLM behaviors, enabling us to evaluate and improve methods for explaining LLM behaviors.

Trader-facing dynamic fees are increasingly proposed for automated market makers (AMMs), but historical data do not identify how order flow would respond: trader-facing fees do not vary, trader types are latent, and a replayed tape is not a sequential decision environment. We therefore construct a minimal closed-loop simulator in which the missing signal exists by construction: two constant-product pools repriced by an equilibrium-inspired dynamic-fee rule, fee-sensitive noise flow, and closed-form CEX--AMM arbitrage. Equilibrium is used as a closure principle, not as an object the trader learns. Against a tuned benchmark ladder of schedule, planning, lookahead, and tabular policies, a small DQN is the only evaluated valid policy whose paired improvement over tuned one-step routing excludes zero. On a reserved final block of 1{,}000 seeds with completion forced to 1.0 for every policy, it reduces implementation shortfall under every tested intra-step ordering, by 13.3bps of order notional under the pre-specified agent-last ordering, and the edge is concentrated in, and learned from, dynamic-fee environments: under constant fees the paired difference is indistinguishable from zero. The result is model-conditioned counterfactual evidence about execution control in AMMs, not evidence about historical traders, equilibrium play, or deployable profit.

TextGrad improves language-model systems by revising text from feedback. Its core thesis is that natural-language feedback can act as a gradient for optimizing text components without changing model weights. Applying it to agents is harder because feedback arrives only after a sequence of actions, making it difficult to identify which decision caused failure. We study this problem by separating the ability to follow a useful policy from the ability to learn that policy from experience. Our main finding is a clear gap between these two abilities. Human-written policies improve two frozen 7B agents on TextWorldExpress by 5.0 success points, showing that useful policy text exists. However, policies generated from agent trajectories do not reliably outperform fixed prompting, even with richer traces, counterfactual evidence, or iterative GEPA search. The main challenge for agent-level TextGrad is therefore not executing textual policy updates, but reliably generating and selecting them from experience.

Search-augmented language agents should retrieve external information only when necessary and ground their answers in retrieved evidence. Yet terminal correctness assigns equal credit to direct answers from parametric knowledge, evidence-grounded answers, and answers recalled after redundant search. Process supervision and LLM judges provide richer feedback but can require high-cost annotation or inference; low-cost, non-contrastive policy confidence signals do not directly identify whether retrieved evidence changes an answer. We propose Search-G1, a reward framework that couples retrieval necessity with evidence reliance through two intervention-calibrated hidden-state readouts for selective grounded search. A prompt readout predicts closed-book sufficiency, whose complement proxies policy-relative retrieval necessity; an answer-commit readout predicts evidence reliance as sensitivity to evidence deletion conditional on the realized reasoning prefix. A correctness-first reward gates evidence-reliance credit by retrieval necessity, rewards sufficient direct answers, and penalizes repeated search. After calibration, scoring needs neither process annotations nor LLM-judge inference. As policy-relative targets, trajectory distributions, and representations may drift, Search-G1 periodically regenerates targets and refits its readouts. Across four QA benchmarks and two scales, Search-G1 achieves competitive task accuracy, with stronger counterfactual evidence dependence and fewer searches in the main comparisons, complemented by independent human audits of answer support.

Large language model agents can plan, invoke tools, and modify external states, yet most systems still take an explicit user instruction as a fixed starting point. Proactive service moves the decision upstream: an agent must infer service opportunities from incomplete environmental and user signals, choose among remaining silent, asking, assisting, and acting, and account for interruption, misunderstanding, overreach, and privacy costs. This survey gives an operational definition centered on initiative and formulates the problem as a partially observable sequential decision process constrained by authorization and risk. The formulation represents timing, content, and delivery within one structured action, while making explicit the option value of waiting, the decision value of questions, and feedback-induced state changes. On this basis, we organize existing methods along one decision pipeline (state and need estimation, intervention gating, action construction, and feedback adaptation) and describe prescribed, predictive, model based, and return optimizing mechanisms as nonexclusive policy-construction components. We further normalize decision units and three-axis evidence descriptors across streaming dialogue, screen, video, software-engineering, and human-agent collaboration resources, and formalize metrics for triggering, timing, calibration, user burden, safety, and policy value. The synthesis shows why offline classification performance alone does not predict deployment benefit and why long-term memory is not a defining condition of proactivity. Reliable proactive service instead requires calibrated incremental intervention value, verifiable authorization, recoverable execution, and counterfactual evidence.

Automated identification of individual animals is moving from small curated studies toward shared benchmarks and reusable foundation models. This progress is useful, but current evaluation leaves the evidence behind a match unresolved, i.e., high retrieval accuracy does not show whether a model used animal features or identity-correlated shortcuts. We address this with Counterfactual Foreground Retrieval (CFR), an evidence-aware evaluation protocol. CFR evaluates the same query-gallery task under different views: full image, foreground-only, and shortcut-only. The full-image measures standard retrieval performance; the foreground-only measures foreground-supported retrieval; and shortcut-only view measure how much identity signal is recoverable from background, or silhouette. This turns a retrieval score into an evidence profile: how well the model performs on the original images, how much of that performance remains when only the animal is visible, and how much identity signal remains recoverable when the animal is removed. We release around 0.5M masks for 34 datasets and code for mask generation and CFR evaluation.

Recent advances in multimodal language models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in vision-language reasoning, especially with the emergence of "thinking with images," which integrates explicit visual steps into the reasoning process. While this paradigm strengthens image-based reasoning, a significant challenge remains: models may arrive at correct answers by relying on irrelevant or spurious regions, driven by prior knowledge or dataset biases. Even when the answer is correct, flawed reasoning indicates that the model has not truly understood the image, highlighting the critical importance of reasoning fidelity in multimodal tasks. To address this issue, we propose DeFacto, a counterfactual reasoning framework that jointly enforces accurate answering and faithful reasoning. A key component of our approach is the design of three complementary training paradigms: (i) positive, (ii) counterfactual, and (iii) random-masking. To enable these paradigms, we develop a pipeline that automatically localizes question-relevant evidence and constructs positive, counterfactual, and random variants, resulting in a dataset of about 100k images. Building on this framework, we train multimodal language models with GRPO-based reinforcement learning, where we design three complementary rewards to guide the model toward accurate answering and evidence-grounded reasoning. Experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that DeFacto substantially improves both answer accuracy and reasoning faithfulness, establishing a stronger foundation for interpretable multimodal reasoning. The code is available on GitHub and the dataset is released on HuggingFace.

Infrared unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) tracking is challenging because the target is often small, low-contrast, and easily confused with thermal distractors or cluttered backgrounds. Recent Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising performance by learning strong appearance representations, but their responses can still be dominated by background structures when the target appearance is weak or ambiguous. A natural solution is to introduce temporal motion cues. However, in infrared UAV tracking, motion cues are not always reliable: camera jitter, dynamic backgrounds, sensor noise, and target disappearance may produce temporal variations that are stronger than the true target motion. Therefore, the key challenge is not simply how to use motion, but how to distinguish target-consistent motion from background-induced pseudo motion. To this end, we propose CMRTrack, a counterfactual motion reliability learning framework for robust infrared UAV tracking. CMRTrack first extracts temporal evidence from adjacent search regions using a lightweight motion evidence encoder. During training, a counterfactual target-erased history branch is introduced to construct hard motion references, encouraging the motion encoder to learn reliable target-consistent motion rather than arbitrary temporal changes. The learned motion evidence is then incorporated into a one-stream tracking framework through motion-guided token modulation and reliability-aware score fusion, enabling adaptive feature enhancement and response refinement. Extensive experiments on Anti-UAV410 demonstrate that CMRTrack consistently outperforms representative state-of-the-art trackers and significantly improves the OSTrack baseline, with ablation studies and qualitative analysis verifying the effectiveness of the proposed counterfactual motion reliability learning.

Temporal grounding is fundamental to audio understanding, yet large audio language models (LALMs) remain weak at it on long audio, where hallucinations compound and annotated data is scarce. Existing benchmarks cover only short clips or offer coarse, synthetic annotations. We introduce EgoSCAPE, a manually verified benchmark created from Ego4D with 700 real audios of durations up to 5 minutes, annotated with dense captions, sound sources, audio timelines, and temporal grounding queries. We further propose ATTEST, a GRPO-based reinforcement learning framework that improves temporal grounding without changing the base model's architecture or token vocabulary. ATTEST combines (i) a counterfactual grounding reward penalizing predictions that survive removal of their acoustic evidence, (ii) an attention-density reward encouraging generation to attend to its own claimed time spans, and (iii) token-wise advantages giving segment-level credit for long dense captions. ATTEST outperforms prior temporal grounding methods on existing dense captioning and grounding benchmarks, with fewer hallucinations. Together, EgoSCAPE and ATTEST establish a rigorous evaluation-training recipe that brings temporally grounded audio understanding closer to practical, long-form deployment.

Counterfactual analysis is widely used to study evidence use in vision-language models, but its diagnostic value is limited on well-posed tasks: when several cues independently support the same answer, removing one may not change the prediction. We propose monocular metric object-size estimation as an ill-posed diagnostic setting for evidence selection: because physical size cannot be determined from a single uncalibrated image, models must rely on imperfect cues category priors, target appearance, local context, apparent image size, and scene geometry. We assemble Metric VQA (10{,}813 dimension queries from Objectron and 331 tape-measured in-the-wild scenes) and evaluate 12 open-weight VLMs (3--397\,B parameters) with counterfactual analysis decomposing six visual and language evidence channels. Even the largest VLMs tested (Qwen3-VL-235B, Qwen3.5-397B, InternVL3.5-241B) trail a text-only frontier LLM on the in-the-wild split. The diagnostic analysis shows: target identity is the most load-bearing cue, target pixels and local context help only some models, apparent size shifts predictions without a directional readout, and global scene geometry is largely unused. We analyze LoRA fine-tuning as an actionable intervention specific to metric estimation: while the task is learnable, the models do not learn to leverage scene geometry.

Retrieval-augmented language models are being increasingly tasked with subjective, contentious, and conflicting queries such as "is aspartame linked to cancer". To resolve these ambiguous queries, one must search through a large range of websites and consider "which, if any, of this evidence do I find convincing?". In this work, we study how LLMs answer this question. In particular, we construct ConflictingQA, a dataset that pairs controversial queries with a series of real-world evidence documents that contain different facts (e.g., quantitative results), argument styles (e.g., appeals to authority), and answers (Yes or No). We use this dataset to perform sensitivity and counterfactual analyses to explore which text features most affect LLM predictions. Overall, we find that current models rely heavily on the relevance of a website to the query, while largely ignoring stylistic features that humans find important such as whether a text contains scientific references or is written with a neutral tone. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of RAG corpus quality (e.g., the need to filter misinformation), and possibly even a shift in how LLMs are trained to better align with human judgements.

Multimodal on-policy distillation (OPD) transfers fine-grained visual knowledge by supervising student-generated trajectories with a privileged-view teacher. Yet its next-token corrections are source-mixed, combining visual signals with linguistic priors and teacher-specific effects. The key challenge is to estimate which corrections are supported by visual evidence, not merely where or how strongly to distill. We introduce Visual Attribution Distillation (VAD), a counterfactual target-reconstruction algorithm that estimates the visually attributable part of a teacher correction. At each student-generated prefix, VAD evaluates the same fixed teacher with the relevant evidence present and removed. The corresponding change in centered log-probabilities defines ut, a signed proxy for the visual evidence direction that estimates how revealing the evidence supports or refutes candidate tokens. VAD projects the original correction onto this proxy to obtain an intervention-aligned component and a proxy-unexplained residual, then reconstructs a student-anchored target from the former. During training, this reconstructed target supplies the primary supervision signal, while the privileged teacher contributes a weak regularizer. Across six fine-grained visual benchmarks at 4B and 9B scales, VAD outperforms direct privileged-view distillation and visual-advantage weighting. Token- level and controlled-target analyses show that the proxy-aligned component is enriched in task-relevant visual corrections and yields stronger target shifts, especially when evidence refutes a mistaken answer. These results support counterfactual target reconstruction as an effective alternative to source-mixed supervision.

Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) requires agents to continuously ground task progress from long-horizon instructions and partial egocentric observations. Existing VLM-based navigation agents typically reason only over available observations and may remain confident even when task-relevant evidence is missing. For example, an agent may confidently proceed forward and get lost even though the landmark indicating the next turn lies outside its current field of view. We term this failure mode Progress Myopia: the agent fails to recognize unreliable progress grounding and continues acting on insufficient evidence. To address it, we propose SeekVLN, an evidence-seeking framework that couples semantic progress reasoning with active acquisition of task-relevant observations. SeekVLN is trained in two stages: First, Future-guided Reverse Generation (FRG) uses future expert actions to augment offline expert trajectories with supplementary views and evidence annotations. Supervised fine-tuning on these trajectories establishes a prior for evidence seeking and progress reasoning without additional expert interaction. However, imitation alone does not reveal whether seeking improves subsequent navigation. We therefore introduce Counterfactual Contrastive Policy Optimization (C2PO) for reinforcement fine-tuning. By comparing each evidence-seeking branch with a counterfactual direct-navigation branch from the same state, C2PO uses a contrastive reward to assign credit to seeking decisions based on subsequent navigation benefit. Experiments on simulated benchmarks show that SeekVLN achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving success rate by 12.7% and 7.5% over the base model on R2R-CE and RxR-CE, respectively. Both simulated and real-world evaluations exhibit human-like evidence-seeking behaviors for more reliable progress grounding.

Deploying a new decision policy creates a cold-start problem for prediction models whose targets depend on the policy's actions: historical observations reflect earlier policies, while real observations under the new policy are not yet available. Simulation offers a way to address this gap by rolling out the target policy across counterfactual scenarios and using the resulting trajectories to learn how the system responds to those controls. The simulation-to-reality (Sim2Real) transfer of this simulator-trained model can then be backtested by evaluating it against real observations from past deployments. Using two real-world inventory-control deployments, we evaluate this process from three angles: simulator fidelity, zero-shot transfer to real behavior, and adaptation as real target-policy observations accumulate. The simulator-trained forecaster achieves lower point-estimate mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than the same architecture trained on historical real data, reducing MAPE by 1.2-3.1 percentage points in Study 1 and 12.5-18.7 points in Study 2. After deployment, lightweight calibration using early real observations further reduces error by up to 2.5 percentage points. These results provide empirical evidence that simulator-generated counterfactual data can support cold-start forecasting under a new policy, and the resulting model can be further refined as real deployment data become available.

Large language models achieve strong scores on medical benchmarks, yet these benchmarks evaluate each question in isolation, providing no measure of whether a system can distinguish clinically similar presentations requiring different interventions. We introduce MamaBench, the first counterfactual benchmark for maternal and paediatric AI: 434 expert-authored clinical narratives in 217 pairs across 371 pathologies, evaluated via the Bias Trap Rate (BTR), the conditional probability that a model fails the counterfactual given success on the base case. We propose Evidence-Anchored RAG (EA-RAG), a three-stage retrieval method that replaces aggregate similarity with an evidence coverage objective through clinical parameter extraction, coverage auditing, and contrastive sub-queries. Across eight configurations of four frontier LLMs, base accuracy overstates robust accuracy by 16-28 percentage points in every model. EA-RAG achieves 20.3% BTR and 65.0% robust accuracy on Claude Sonnet 4.6, a 5.5 percentage point BTR reduction without degrading base accuracy. The residual 20% BTR confirms that counterfactual robustness in clinical AI remains an open challenge. Keywords: counterfactual evaluation, clinical AI, maternal healthcare, retrieval-augmented generation, diagnostic robustness

Vision-language model safety benchmarks typically evaluate only final responses: whether a model refuses, warns, or complies. This outcome-level view cannot tell whether a model is safe for the right multimodal reason. Safelooking behavior may reflect keyword-triggered refusal, missed visual hazards, or over-refusal of benign-sensitive inputs. We introduce EviSafe, an evidence-grounded framework for VLM safety that jointly evaluates natural user-facing behavior, explicit grounding in textual and visual evidence, and behavioral sensitivity to counterfactual changes in safety-critical evidence. EviSafeBench instantiates the framework as a controlled benchmark with 1,181 gold image-text scenarios and 2,452 targeted counterfactual variants across eight safety domains and eight risk-source types. Each scenario includes a gold safety decision, evidence annotations, a safe-response policy, and counterfactual interventions. The three-probe protocol queries models with natural-response, evidencereporting, and counterfactual-response prompts, then scores them using an evidence-aware judge. Across eleven evaluated VLMs, natural severity accuracy ranges from 27.6% to 52.8%, relaxed diagnostic consistency from 6.1% to 29.3%, and unsafe-to-safe counterfactual transition success from 30.4% to 58.4%. These gaps show that the evaluated VLMs are not reliably safe for the right multimodal reason and motivate evaluation beyond refusal counts.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can reproduce sensitive, copyrighted, or unsafe information from their training data. Effective unlearning must remove target information while preserving non-target content, even within the same response. Existing methods typically apply uniform forgetting objectives to complete responses and rely on fixed, off-policy supervision, resulting in coarse token control and misalignment with the model's current behavior. We propose CUSE, a Counterfactual-guided Unlearning framework via on-policy Self-distillation for multimodal large language models. It first constructs counterfactual inputs by removing target-related evidence and uses the resulting changes in token probabilities to identify which tokens require stronger forgetting. It then distills token-level forgetting and retention targets on responses sampled from the current policy, with a frozen copy of the original model serving as the teacher model augmented with the corresponding forgetting- and retention-oriented privileged contexts. This design jointly determines what to forget and what to preserve. On MLLMU-Bench, CUSE reduces forget-set ROUGE-L by 33.6% while achieving 1.2% higher retain-set ROUGE-L than the strongest baseline.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in multimodal reasoning. However, prevailing reinforcement learning (RL) paradigms lack explicit counterfactual enhancement and causal learning mechanisms. This fundamental deficiency results in severe grounding failures, manifesting as a tendency to ignore visual evidence in favor of language priors or exhibiting hallucination drift during long chain-of-thought reasoning. To address this root cause, we propose CounterFactual Policy Optimization (CFPO), a novel framework that enforces causal consistency between visual perception and textual reasoning. CFPO introduces a cross-modal counterfactual enhancement mechanism, which regularizes the policy by maximizing the discrepancy between the model's predictions and those from a counterfactual state where critical visual cues are suppressed. This approach seamlessly integrates with standard algorithms like GRPO and DAPO without requiring external reward models or additional supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CFPO significantly improves reasoning fidelity, achieving consistent gains of 3.17%-6.25% over standard RL baselines and 1.32%-2.13% over the state-of-the-art perception-aware method (PAPO). Code is available at https://github.com/Raven-July/CFPO.

Modern Visual Question Answering (VQA) models often exploit spurious correlations in training data, leading to poor out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization due to language bias. Although counterfactual learning has shown promise, existing methods can be improved to better guide attention toward causal evidence and strengthen feature discrimination. To address this, we propose a novel training framework that enhances counterfactual contrastive learning for VQA. Our framework introduces three key contributions: (1) a three-stage curriculum for stable multi-objective optimization, (2) an enhanced Batch-Contrastive loss for more discriminative feature learning, and (3) two novel regularizers, Answer-Contrastive (AC) loss to refine the prediction space and Gradient-Discrepancy (GD) loss to enforce causal visual grounding. Our model achieves a competitive accuracy of 61.64% on the bias-sensitive VQA-CP v2 benchmark while maintaining 62.80% on the standard VQA v2 dataset, yielding a small generalization gap of 1.16%. This demonstrates a strong balance between OOD robustness and in-distribution performance.

Modern neural language models that are widely used in various NLP tasks risk memorizing sensitive information from their training data. Understanding this memorization is important in real world applications and also from a learning-theoretical perspective. An open question in previous studies of language model memorization is how to filter out "common" memorization. In fact, most memorization criteria strongly correlate with the number of occurrences in the training set, capturing memorized familiar phrases, public knowledge, templated texts, or other repeated data. We formulate a notion of counterfactual memorization which characterizes how a model's predictions change if a particular document is omitted during training. We identify and study counterfactually-memorized training examples in standard text datasets. We estimate the influence of each memorized training example on the validation set and on generated texts, showing how this can provide direct evidence of the source of memorization at test time.

Long-context reasoning faces two complementary bottlenecks: retaining evidence across long inputs and sustaining computation across many reasoning steps. Existing approaches largely address them separately, with external memory extending access to distant evidence and latent reasoning compressing multi-step computation. We introduce LatentHarness, which unifies memory access and latent reasoning as sequential latent action selection. At each internal step, the model chooses THINK for further computation, RECALL from a fast-weight memory of input evidence and intermediate reasoning states, or EXIT to emit the next token. We train this policy with counterfactual policy distillation, which branches every action for one step and scores its effect on the emitted token. These gains teach the policy when memory is more useful than further reasoning, while gradients through counterfactual recall teach which intermediate states should be retained in memory for future use. Across six general and long-context reasoning benchmarks, LatentHarness at 1.4B improves on the strongest baselines by 2.8% and 10.0% relative, respectively, and runs 5.9x faster than the strongest long-context baseline.

Current image-text evaluation often relies on a global score, which gives limited insight into which semantic details are supported by the image. Explainable metrics provide rationales, but the visual evidence supporting those rationales can still be difficult to verify. We introduce VisExMEM, a reference-free evaluator that decomposes captions into atomic claims, localizes visual evidence, verifies each claim, and averages claim-level support into a global score. Explanations use the same evidence and decisions. We train Qwen3.5-based 4B and 9B models on 100K samples with multi-task SFT, counterfactual refinement, and evidence-aware GDPO. Across eight benchmarks, VisExMEM-9B achieves the highest descriptive composite among open-source evaluators in our comparison, exceeding VQAScore by 11.7 points while remaining competitive with GPT-5.6 Sol. We also introduce AGITA-Bench, containing 600 human-annotated image-text pairs and 8.7K atomic claims for global and claim-level evaluation. For untuned Qwen3.5 and GPT-5.6 Sol controls, decomposed prompting raises the same composite by 3.6-5.1 points relative to holistic prompting. Human evaluation shows that VisExMEM explanations outperform prior explainable metrics and approach GPT-5.6 Sol.

Evidence-grounded reasoning requires more than attaching retrieved text to a prediction: a model should make decisions that depend on whether the provided evidence supports the target claim. In practice, this often fails because supervision is weak, evidence is only loosely tied to the claim, and evaluation does not test evidence dependence directly. We introduce case-grounded evidence verification, a general framework in which a model receives a local case context, external evidence, and a structured claim, and must decide whether the evidence supports the claim for that case. Our key contribution is a supervision construction procedure that generates explicit support examples together with semantically controlled non-support examples, including counterfactual wrong-state and topic-related negatives, without manual evidence annotation. We instantiate the framework in radiology and train a standard verifier on the resulting support task. The learned verifier substantially outperforms both case-only and evidence-only baselines, remains strong under correct evidence, and collapses when evidence is removed or swapped, indicating genuine evidence dependence. This behavior transfers across unseen evidence articles and an external case distribution, though performance degrades under evidence-source shift and remains sensitive to backbone choice. Overall, the results suggest that a major bottleneck in evidence grounding is not only model capacity, but the lack of supervision that encodes the causal role of evidence.

Standard Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems predominantly rely on semantic relevance as a proxy for utility. However, this assumption collapses in realistic decision-making scenarios where user queries are laden with cognitive biases, such as false premises or confirmation bias. In such cases, maximizing relevance paradoxically promotes the retrieval of sycophantic evidence that reinforces hallucinations, a critical failure we term the ``Relevance-Robustness Gap''. To bridge this gap, we propose CoRM-RAG (Counterfactual Risk Minimization for RAG), a framework that aligns retrieval with decision safety rather than mere similarity. Grounded in causal intervention, we introduce a Cognitive Perturbation Protocol to simulate user biases during training, which is then distilled into a lightweight Evidence Critic. This scoring module learns to identify documents that possess sufficient evidential strength to steer the model toward correctness despite adversarial query perturbations. Extensive experiments on decision-making benchmarks demonstrate that CoRM-RAG significantly outperforms strong dense retrievers and LLM-based rerankers in adversarial settings, while enabling effective risk-aware abstention through reliable robustness scoring. Our code is available at https://github.com/PeiYangLiu/CoRM-RAG.git.

Medical Vision-Language Models (Med-VLMs) require reliable reasoning from fine-grained visual evidence, yet existing models can produce plausible clinical answers by relying on language priors or medical templates rather than truly attending to diagnosis-critical regions. On-Policy Distillation (OPD) offers dense token-level supervision on student-generated trajectories and provides a privacy-compatible means of capability transfer without requiring the redistribution of raw patient data. However, standard OPD uniformly distills all tokens, causing sparse evidence-dependent tokens to be diluted by abundant clinical narrative tokens. Inspired by the success of OPD in the large language model community, we propose Med-OPD, to our knowledge the first unified post-training framework that integrates on-policy distillation with medical evidence-aware supervision for Med-VLMs. We introduce Medical Evidence Advantage (MEA), a teacher-grounded counterfactual signal that uses an answer-aware hint to focus teacher scoring on evidence supporting the target diagnosis, and measures each token's dependence on medical visual evidence by comparing teacher likelihoods under the original and evidence-degraded imaging modalities. Based on MEA, Med-OPD redistributes the distillation signal at both the token and trajectory levels, emphasizing diagnosis-critical tokens and evidence-reliant rollouts. Experiments on OmniMedVQA subsets show that Med-OPD consistently outperforms SFT and standard OPD across CT, MRI, Disease Diagnosis, and Lesion Grading. These results demonstrate that evidence-aware distillation can better strengthen medical VLMs' reliance on key visual evidence and improve reliable multimodal medical reasoning. The source code and data is publicly available at: https://github.com/yunhang8658/MedOPD.git

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) extend large language models (LLMs) with visual perception, enabling joint reasoning over images and text. Despite inheriting strong reasoning capabilities from LLMs, they remain prone to hallucinations that contradict their visual inputs. Mechanistic studies indicate that this weakness stems from visual laziness: MLLMs encode the correct visual evidence internally, but overly rely on strong language priors during response. Existing alignment methods, such as direct preference optimization, primarily optimize outcome-level rewards based on text. This introduces an optimization bias toward linguistic shortcuts, leading to responses that often contradict the visual evidence. To address this, we propose Visual Information Gain In aLignment (VIGIL), a reinforcement-learning (RL) post-training framework that shifts the focus from numerical reward fitting to causal visual grounding. VIGIL introduces a geometric constraint that explicitly maximizes the mutual information between the visual input and the generated response. We achieve this by penalizing "blind confidence" instances where the model remains improperly certain even when textual-visual attention is masked to create a counterfactual blind state. Extensive experiments show that VIGIL consistently outperforms recent alignment methods across hallucination and reasoning benchmarks without compromising text-only capabilities. Our approach matches the full-data performance of state-of-the-art methods using only 25% of the preference data and even demonstrates emergent spatial grounding capabilities without explicit bounding box supervision.

Reusable skill libraries allow large language model (LLM) agents to reuse procedural knowledge across tasks, but they also turn memory access into a challenging retrieval problem. Full-library prompting preserves coverage at high context cost, vector retrieval returns compact neighborhoods but treats skills as independent text, and graph-based retrieval can recover workflow context only when the edges that carry relevance are reliable. We propose CaSKG, a counterfactual-causal skill graph framework that calibrates procedural relations before retrieval. CaSKG first builds a high-recall directed candidate graph from semantic, lexical, input/output, and structural evidence, with repair evidence and an optional LLM judge further refining candidate scores. It then applies direction-conditioned textual counterfactual probes that remove, substitute, and reorder skill pairs, aggregates the evidence with Bayesian smoothing, and publishes a state-filtered weighted graph for task-conditioned expansion. The graph is constructed offline and used without changing the downstream agent policy or task interface. Across six LLM backbones on ALFWorld ID-140 and ScienceWorld U211, CaSKG achieves the highest task score in all twelve combinations of model and benchmark. Relative to Graph-of-Skills (GoS), it improves the six-model macro-average ScienceWorld score from 72.62 to 80.50 and ALFWorld success from 80.01\% to 86.79\%, while reducing mean environment steps on both benchmarks. Qualitative and ablation analyses further show that calibrated edges help retrieval preserve prerequisites, state-changing actions, verification routines, and final completion steps. These results position edge-confidence calibration as an effective route to compact and executable skill retrieval at scaleCode is available at: https://github.com/ZhiyuanLi218/Caskg .

Long-term memory enables LLM-based agents to retain and reuse information across tasks and sessions, supporting personalization and long-horizon interactions. However, persistent memories can also induce sycophancy, causing agents to over-align with users' historical beliefs even when they are inaccurate, outdated, or inconsistent with objective evidence. Existing mitigation methods assume that memory-induced sycophancy originates from biased or incorrect memories and attempt to reduce this risk by filtering such memories at different stages of the memory pipeline. However, in the real world, objective and correct memories can still induce sycophancy, and the same memory can warrant different influence across different contexts. To this end, we propose MemAdapter, a novel framework that adaptively integrates retrieved memories to support objective and reliable reasoning. Specifically, MemAdapter consists of three components: (i) Counterfactual Induction, which leverages counterfactual reasoning to uncover the potential risk of retrieved memories; (ii) Context-Aware Reflection, which calibrates the inferential influence of each retrieved memory in light of the current task via self-reflection; and (iii) Evidence-Based Reasoning, which grounds the final response in appropriate evidence while preserving the legitimate influence of memory. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that MemAdapter consistently improves memory reliability across diverse scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/DEEP-JLU/MemAdapter.

Although Large Audio-Language Models (LALMs) deliver state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance, they frequently suffer from hallucinations, e.g. generating text not grounded in the audio input. We analyze these grounding failures and identify a distinct taxonomy: Event Omission, False Event Identity, Temporal Relation Error, and Quantitative Temporal Error. To address this, we introduce the AHA (Audio Hallucination Alignment) framework. By leveraging counterfactual hard negative mining, our pipeline constructs a high-quality preference dataset that forces models to distinguish strict acoustic evidence from linguistically plausible fabrications. Additionally, we establish AHA-Eval, a diagnostic benchmark designed to rigorously test these fine-grained temporal reasoning capabilities. We apply this data to align Qwen2.5-Omni. The resulting model, Qwen-Audio-AHA, achieves a 13.7% improvement on AHA-Eval. Crucially, this benefit generalizes beyond our diagnostic set. Our model shows substantial gains on public benchmarks, including 1.3% on MMAU-Test and 1.6% on MMAR, outperforming latest SOTA methods.

Despite achieving high accuracy on medical benchmarks, LLMs exhibit the Einstellung Effect in clinical diagnosis--relying on statistical shortcuts rather than patient-specific evidence, causing misdiagnosis in atypical cases. Existing benchmarks fail to detect this critical failure mode. We introduce MedEinst, a counterfactual benchmark with 5,383 paired clinical cases across 49 diseases. Each pair contains a control case and a "trap" case with altered discriminative evidence that flips the diagnosis. We measure susceptibility via Bias Trap Rate--probability of misdiagnosing traps despite correctly diagnosing controls. Extensive Evaluation of 17 LLMs shows frontier models achieve high baseline accuracy but severe bias trap rates. Thus, we propose ECR-Agent, aligning LLM reasoning with Evidence-Based Medicine standard via two components: (1) Dynamic Causal Inference (DCI) performs structured reasoning through dual-pathway perception, dynamic causal graph reasoning across three levels (association, intervention, counterfactual), and evidence audit for final diagnosis; (2) Critic-Driven Graph and Memory Evolution (CGME) iteratively refines the system by storing validated reasoning paths in an exemplar base and consolidating disease-specific knowledge into evolving illness graphs. Source code is to be released.

Agent harnesses have become the operational infrastructure of modern large language model agents, coordinating context, tools, verification, and execution control to translate latent model capability into reliable long-horizon behavior. However, reliable long-horizon behavior requires harness control to adapt to task demands, execution environments, and evolving execution states, whereas current harnesses predominantly rely on hand-crafted or globally fixed policies; this mismatch manifests as unnecessary computational overhead and, in adverse cases, reduced task success. To address this limitation, we formulate the task of enabling adaptive orchestration in harness systems as a causal learning problem and propose Counterfactual Harness Intervention Learning for Long-Horizon Agents (CHILL-Harness). CHILL-Harness intervenes at the orchestration layer to enable advantage-guided workflow adaptation, thereby improving reasoning and execution efficiency while preserving task performance. Specifically, we develop causal intervention effect learning as the effect-estimation component of CHILL-Harness to estimate intervention-relative workflow advantage from confidence-weighted execution evidence and identify advantageous workflow adaptations. We further introduce advantage-realizing causal orchestration as its realization component to adaptively allocate counterfactual reasoning and realize only workflow adjustments supported by sufficient expected advantage. Finally, we incorporate a success-preserving objective and advantage-margin authorization constraints into CHILL-Harness to promote reliable adaptation. Extensive experiments on heterogeneous long-horizon tasks spanning information seeking, software engineering, and terminal interaction show that CHILL-Harness consistently preserves or improves task success while substantially reducing token consumption and execution time.

Real-world documents distribute evidence across text, tables, figures, and captions within complex page layouts. Answering complex questions over such documents therefore requires more than retrieving relevant passages: systems must recover the evidence topology that connects heterogeneous evidence units. Existing GraphRAG evaluations remain largely text-centered, while multimodal document RAG benchmarks assess cross-modal retrieval and generation without directly evaluating recovery of the intended evidence topology. We introduce TOPOGRAPHRAG-BENCH, a layout-grounded benchmark for multimodal evidence reasoning in GraphRAG, comprising 2,024 questions over 201 long, visually rich documents. Questions are constructed bottom-up from text, figure, and table evidence units under three controlled topologies: single-hop retrieval, bridge-chain reasoning, and multi-source synthesis. To ensure that questions preserve their intended structure, we apply counterfactual validation for shortcut resistance, modality necessity, and evidence necessity. We evaluate text-only GraphRAG, page-level visual retrieval, and multimodal GraphRAG systems using retrieval, generation, and topology-aware reasoning metrics. Multimodal GraphRAG systems achieve the strongest overall performance, but still fail when visual-textual evidence alignment or multi-unit composition is incomplete. Text-only GraphRAG struggles when key dependencies are grounded in figures or tables, while page-level visual retrieval lacks the fine-grained structure needed for topology recovery. These findings motivate GraphRAG systems that move beyond text-derived entity relation graphs to explicitly model document layouts, cross-modal evidence alignment, and the reasoning roles of evidence units. Code and data are available at https://richardlrc.github.io/TopoGraphRAG-Bench/.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) grounds answers in retrieved passages, yet relevance does not guarantee sufficiency: a topical passage may still fail to justify the answer. We study evidence sufficiency verification for selective RAG answering, in which a verifier receives a question, a candidate answer, and retrieved evidence and decides whether the evidence supports, refutes, or is insufficient for the answer, answering only when support is established. We present SURE-RAG, an aggregation protocol that treats evidence sufficiency as a set-level property: missing hops and unresolved conflicts cannot be detected by scoring passages independently. A shared claim-evidence verifier produces a local relation distribution for each (claim, passage) pair, which SURE-RAG aggregates into four interpretable answer-level feature blocks (coverage, relation strength, uncertainty, and retrieval), producing a three-way decision and an auditable selective score. We evaluate on HotpotQA-RAG v3, a controlled multi-hop benchmark, under an artifact-aware protocol (shortcut baselines, counterfactual swaps, no-oracle checks, and GPT-4o audits). Calibrated SURE-RAG attains 0.9075 Macro-F1 (raw 0.8951 +/- 0.0069), well above DeBERTa mean-pooling (0.6516) and a GPT-4o judge (0.7284), and on par with a strong concat cross-encoder (0.8888 +/- 0.0109) while remaining fully auditable. At 30% coverage, risk falls from 0.2588 to 0.1642, a 37% relative reduction. As a boundary-mapping experiment, we contrast SURE-RAG with GPT-4o on HaluBench unsafe detection: the ranking reverses (0.3343 vs. 0.7389 unsafe-F1), indicating that controlled sufficiency verification and natural hallucination detection are distinct problems.

Large language models increasingly justify legal decisions by naming the statute or precedent behind a verdict, treated as evidence that the decision follows from it. We test this directly: holding case facts fixed, we substitute the named legal authority for an unrelated one and decode a model's evolving verdict from its hidden states. Across seven open-weight models (8B-70B) and four benchmarks spanning judicial and contractual reasoning, when explicitly required to justify a verdict by naming the governing authority, models name the correct one in 66.7%-100% of generations, while the verdict changing when the authority changes is far less consistent: 0.0%-21.7% on CaseHOLD, 30.0%-76.7% on ECHR and SCOTUS, and 43.3%-50.0% on ContractNLI. Neither scale nor a purpose-built legal-reasoning model (a best-effort LoRA reproduction; Section 6) closes this gap. A red-teaming evaluation on five core models finds compliance with an adversarial instruction hidden in the case facts (73.3%-96.4%) exceeds verdict-swap sensitivity by a wide margin, holding without exception across model rankings. Naming a legal authority is thus a poor proxy for a verdict's dependence on it, while the same verdict remains separately vulnerable to adversarial manipulation. Both findings replicate across checks ruling out prompt-wording noise and confounded sampling, and bear directly on the use of generated legal explanations as compliance or audit artefacts.

Large language model agents are increasingly used for scientific discovery. However, existing benchmarks mix law inference with programming, score data fitting instead of prediction on unseen inputs, and do not separate empirical evidence from pretrained priors. We introduce SciGame, a controlled benchmark that converts scientific literature into structured scientific cards. Each card yields a pair of Original and dimensionally consistent Counterfactual environments with the same task interface. SciGame contains a Historical collection of canonical laws and a live Temporal collection curated from papers published after model knowledge cutoffs. It evaluates agents in candidate-guided Identification and open-ended Discovery settings. Each setting runs under Prior-only, Fixed, and Adaptive protocols. Experiments on five frontier models yield three findings. First, familiar priors hurt performance once the governing relation is altered. Second, adaptive experimentation helps the strongest models but harms weaker ones under limited budgets. Third, good explanations can hide quantitative failures. Recovering the exact symbolic form remains the main bottleneck, even when agents interpret evidence correctly. Current agents can investigate systems actively, but inducing exact laws in unfamiliar settings remains an open challenge.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

Recent advances in Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs) have yielded promising performance on video question answering (VideoQA). Nevertheless, existing benchmarks are predominantly evaluated through answer correctness, while the grounding of predictions in relevant video evidence remains largely unexamined. This disconnect between answer generation and evidence understanding motivates the construction of the Evidence-Grounded Video Question Answering Benchmark (EG-VQA), an open-ended evaluation protocol in which each QA pair is explicitly annotated with supporting temporal evidence, thereby requiring joint reasoning and precise evidence localization. EG-VQA is comprised of 2,067 videos and 11,838 QA pairs with fine-grained evidence annotations. To evaluate predicted evidence, Evidence-Grounded F1 (EG-F1) is introduced as a unified metric in which temporal alignment and semantic consistency against ground-truth evidence are jointly measured. Experimental evaluation reveals that even strong proprietary models struggle to accurately ground their predictions, exposing a fundamental discrepancy between answer correctness and faithful evidence localization. To bridge this gap, EG-Reasoner, an evidence-grounded reasoning model trained with explicit supervision, is proposed. State-of-the-art performance is achieved among open-source models, with results competitive against proprietary systems, particularly pronounced gains are observed on reasoning-intensive tasks such as counterfactual questions. These findings demonstrate that scaling alone is insufficient for robust video understanding and that structured evidence supervision is essential for the development of more reliable and interpretable VideoQA systems.

Large vision language models (VLMs) report strong accuracy on medical question-answering, yet it remains unclear whether they reason from visual evidence or exploit textual shortcuts. We introduce a counterfactual evaluation framework that decouples visual and textual contributions by substituting input images with controlled surrogates blank, pixel-shuffled, image-absent, and CLIP-retrieved hard negatives and derive a suite of grounding metrics including the Visual Reliance Score (VRS) and Visual Hallucination Rate (VHR). We further introduce CORAL (COntrastive Retrieval-Augmented Learning), a 7B-parameter LoRA fine-tune of Qwen2.5-VL-7B trained with a Contrastive Grounding Objective (CGO) that penalises answer invariance under hard-negative image swaps. On a paired controlled evaluation across four closed-form medical VQA benchmarks (PathVQA, PMC-VQA, SLAKE, VQA-RAD; n=400 total), CORAL improves macro accuracy by +6.7 pp (P(Delta>0)=0.988) and reduces VHR by 8.0 pp (P<0.001) over the matched Qwen2.5-VL-7B base; neither MedVLThinker RL variant achieves a significant gain on either metric. Cross-domain diagnostics further reveal that image substitution costs only <=6.5 pp on medical benchmarks versus 48-61 pp on general-domain tasks, situating the grounding gap that CGO targets. We discuss evaluation limitations openly including train/eval benchmark overlap and underpowered secondary metrics and release our framework, training code, and model weights to support reproducible grounding audits of medical VLMs.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) achieve strong results on visual reasoning benchmarks, but answer accuracy alone does not indicate whether a model relied on the correct visual evidence. This gap is particularly important in multi-view driving scenes used for autonomous driving, where a model can produce a plausible answer while grounding it in the wrong camera view. We introduce a multi-view visual question answering benchmark for evaluating evidence-source identification: given six synchronized NuScenes views and a question, the model must identify the supporting camera view and answer the question. The benchmark contains 122 conflict-centric question-answer pairs from 73 scenes, spanning causality, counterfactual reasoning, and intent prediction. View labels are proposed by an automatic conflict-mining pipeline and manually verified by annotators. We evaluate three settings: camera-view selection, oracle QA given the golden view, and joint prediction in which the model selects a view and answers in one pass. Answers are evaluated in both multiple-choice and free-form formats, using exact match for structured predictions and an LLM judge for free-form responses. By explicitly separating visual-source identification from answer correctness, the benchmark exposes grounding failures that answer-only evaluation misses.

Multi-module systems often expose every module to the full input. We test whether restricting evidence visibility changes which solutions gradient-based training discovers. Four-cell societies share one frozen pretrained language model and one low-rank adapter, communicating only through two model-width continuous vectors in a fixed relay. On a prospectively sealed natural-language function-composition task, we train ten matched restricted/global pairs sharing initialization bytes, training order, token layout, parameters, and computation; only the attention mask differs. Restricted societies outperform their globally visible twins by at least 20 points at both depths in 9 of 10 pairs, with median paired advantages of 0.7648 and 0.6050. Cutting communication reduces every restricted society to chance, and the depth-three advantage remains 0.558 on programs whose composite function never appeared in training. Across six audited restricted societies, same-value packet transplants preserve behavior at 0.94-1.00 across all tested interfaces; destructive interventions collapse performance; and counterfactual packets redirect outputs toward the mathematically predicted answer. The sole high-performing global model also requires communication, but its same-value packets are not interchangeable across episodes. Restricted visibility is thus not necessary for composition; under this protocol it substantially increases the probability of a generalizing relay and favors a reusable, value-indexed interface. The complete preregistered battery nevertheless formally fails because restricted-arm median depth-three accuracy is 0.6988, below the 0.70 floor. An earlier qualification cohort likewise yielded 0/10 complete passes: one model met every task-performance gate, but all ten failed ordinary-language preservation, confining the system to explicitly task-gated use.

A speech deepfake detector estimates whether a recording is synthetic, but a forensic analyst also asks which system produced it, whether recordings share a source, and what evidence supports each conclusion. We present VeriSpoof, an audio language model that unifies five tasks with shared weights: deepfake detection, generator attribution (generator, acoustic model and vocoder), recording-condition analysis, synthesized-span localisation, and source verification. Each decision is supported by grounded rationales whose statements can be independently verified. Answers are scored by sentence likelihood, allowing detection and source verification to be thresholded without separate heads. Rationale statements can be checked against waveform measurements, span labels, or generator metadata. Counterfactual examples train decisions to follow the stated evidence. Across the 14 Speech-DF-Arena test sets, VeriSpoof-Plus achieves 2.14% pooled EER, ranking third of 28 systems and first among open-weight systems. VeriSpoof-Base, trained only on official training splits of eight corpora, achieves 4.43% EER, less than half that of the next open-weight detector. With the same weights, VeriSpoof-Plus verifies whether recordings from generators unseen in training share a source at 6.2% EER. Controlled studies show that the audio representation governs detection, the LLM governs recording comparison, and source supervision is necessary for neural-codec fakes. Statement-checkable rationales catch partial fakes missed by one-step answers (99.6% vs. 78.4% on PartialEdit) and determine decisions under edits unseen in training (99.5%). Training updates only 29.7M of 2.85B parameters, fitting a single 24 GB GPU with gradient checkpointing. We release both models, inference code, a demo, and VeriSpoof-Bench, the evaluation suite covering these questions.

Algorithmic approaches to interpreting machine learning models have proliferated in recent years. We carry out human subject tests that are the first of their kind to isolate the effect of algorithmic explanations on a key aspect of model interpretability, simulatability, while avoiding important confounding experimental factors. A model is simulatable when a person can predict its behavior on new inputs. Through two kinds of simulation tests involving text and tabular data, we evaluate five explanations methods: (1) LIME, (2) Anchor, (3) Decision Boundary, (4) a Prototype model, and (5) a Composite approach that combines explanations from each method. Clear evidence of method effectiveness is found in very few cases: LIME improves simulatability in tabular classification, and our Prototype method is effective in counterfactual simulation tests. We also collect subjective ratings of explanations, but we do not find that ratings are predictive of how helpful explanations are. Our results provide the first reliable and comprehensive estimates of how explanations influence simulatability across a variety of explanation methods and data domains. We show that (1) we need to be careful about the metrics we use to evaluate explanation methods, and (2) there is significant room for improvement in current methods. All our supporting code, data, and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/peterbhase/InterpretableNLP-ACL2020

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) paradigm provides a powerful way to decompose inscrutable dense layers into smaller, modular computations often more amenable to human interpretation, debugging, and editability. A major problem however lies in the computational cost of scaling the number of experts to achieve sufficiently fine-grained specialization. In this paper, we propose the Multilinear Mixutre of Experts (MMoE) layer to address this, focusing on vision models. MMoE layers perform an implicit computation on prohibitively large weight tensors entirely in factorized form. Consequently, MMoEs both (1) avoid the issues incurred through the discrete expert routing in the popular 'sparse' MoE models, yet (2) do not incur the restrictively high inference-time costs of 'soft' MoE alternatives. We present both qualitative and quantitative evidence (through visualization and counterfactual interventions respectively) that scaling MMoE layers when fine-tuning foundation models for vision tasks leads to more specialized experts at the class-level whilst remaining competitive with the performance of parameter-matched linear layer counterparts. Finally, we show that learned expert specialism further facilitates manual correction of demographic bias in CelebA attribute classification. Our MMoE model code is available at https://github.com/james-oldfield/MMoE.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) make grounded predictions in real-world scenes by combining visual and textual cues, yet existing benchmarks rarely reveal how they arbitrate between these evidence sources when they conflict. We introduce SIGNPOST-Bench, a controlled counterfactual benchmark for evaluating text-vision conflict resolution. Each source image is transformed into a counterfactual quintuplet of Original, Blank, Similar, Random, and Adversarial variants. Synthetic, localized scene-text interventions are designed to preserve non-textual content, enabling paired measurements of changes in localization performance and directed shifts toward geographic targets introduced by conflicting text. SIGNPOST-Bench contains 5,111 counterfactual groups and 25,555 image variants from four datasets. We evaluate 20 MLLMs from seven providers. Compared with Original images, Adversarial variants raise median localization error from 282 km to 1,347 km, a 4.8-fold increase. Among geocodable adversarial samples, 6.5-20.1% of predictions lie less than 50 km from the injected target across models, and every evaluated model exhibits a positive mean paired reduction in target distance from Blank to Adversarial. Compatible, unrelated, and conflicting text replacements produce distinct effects on model predictions, while clean-input localization performance does not fully predict robustness to conflicting text. These results establish visual geolocation as a continuous diagnostic of scene-text arbitration and provide a controlled framework for evaluating how MLLMs resolve conflicting multimodal evidence.

Rubric-based reinforcement learning extends reward-driven optimization to open-ended tasks by assigning partial credit to individual response requirements. However, rubric judges can assign a high criterion score even when the information or action it requires is absent from the response, a failure mode we term Vacuous Credit. Such awards persist after the required information is removed and can reverse the sign of a response's GRPO advantage. To address this problem, we introduce MetaRubric, which alternates evidence-aware policy optimization with response-guided rubric adaptation. We construct counterfactual counterparts by changing one task-relevant fact in each prompt. During policy optimization, credit is assigned only when the response contains sufficient evidence to satisfy the required rubric criterion. After each policy-optimization stage, current policy responses guide revisions to original and counterfactual criteria while preserving the meaning of the original prompt's initial rubric as interpreted under each prompt's facts. We also adapt criterion weights at stage boundaries to better address observed policy errors. Across multiple backbones, MetaRubric improves PubMedQA accuracy by 6.00--20.40 percentage points over static-judge GRPO, with further gains on HealthBench-Hard and two multimodal medical benchmarks.

Video multimodal large language models (MLLMs) keep climbing video question answering benchmarks, yet shuffling the frames, masking the segment that supports the answer, or occluding the target object barely changes their predictions. The accuracy rests on appearance and language priors, not on the temporal evidence the question asks for. We trace this to the unit of post-training: rewards are computed on a single response to the original clip, so the model is never asked to behave consistently across views. We propose Behavior Pack Optimization (BPO), which replaces the single response with a behavior pack of outputs across counterfactual views chosen by question type, scored jointly. The pack reward asks for stability when the intervention is irrelevant, sensitivity when key evidence is removed, and abstention when no evidence remains. To keep this objective stable at small pack sizes, BPO uses an anchor-relative advantage: the response on the original view serves as a per-prompt reference instead of a group mean over mixed views. On TempCompass, MVBench, and NExT-QA, BPO improves the macro accuracy of Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct by 4.7 pp, the temporal-hard subset by 7.8 pp, and abstention F1 by 20.0 pp over a budget-matched vanilla GRPO baseline from the same SFT checkpoint. The gains transfer to Video-MME, LongVideoBench, and to LLaVA-Video-7B; ablations confirm they follow the view sets, not the rollout count. We hope this pack-level perspective offers a useful starting point for the video MLLM and multimodal post-training community as the field moves toward evidence-grounded video reasoning.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are deployed through pipelines that end users cannot audit, and a poisoned VLA can behave normally on clean observations while a small visual trigger redirects a long-horizon robot policy before any failure becomes observable. Existing vision or language defenses rarely explain what a triggered VLA representation looks like or how to recover behavior without retraining. We study this gap through two independently proposed VLA attacks from groups with distinct injection strategies, BadVLA and INFUSE; the latter persists after downstream clean adaptation. Across the evaluated poisoned models, we identify a recurring internal mechanism: a compact causal footprint, namely a small visual support that is attention-seeded, spatially compact, and causal in a precise sense -- masking it returns a clean-calibrated evidence-evolution score to the normal operating region. This footprint motivates TrustVLA, a mechanism-guided inference-time defense that adapts the Dirichlet evidence framework from trusted classification to monitor per-token, per-layer epistemic uncertainty in VLA policies. With only a small clean calibration set, TrustVLA (i)~detects abnormal evidence evolution, (ii)~localizes the compact support by counterfactual mechanism-score drop, and (iii)~recovers the observation by localized inpainting. Across OpenVLA/LIBERO and π_{0.5} transfer evaluations, TrustVLA reduces attack success while preserving clean-task performance, providing a retraining-free, mechanism-guided defense for visual-triggered VLA backdoors.

Automatic fact-checking poses a significant challenge in Arabic natural language processing due to the scarcity of datasets and resources. In this manuscript, we introduce Arafa, a new large-scale dataset for fact-checking in Modern Standard Arabic, constructed through an automated framework leveraging large language models (LLMs). The dataset was constructed through a three-step pipeline: (1) claim generation from Arabic Wikipedia pages with supporting textual evidence, (2) claim mutation to generate challenging counterfactual claims with refuting evidence, and (3) an automatic validation step to validate that the generated claims are either supported or refuted by their accompanying evidence, or if the evidence does not provide enough information to judge the validity of the claims. The resulting dataset comprises 181,976 claim-evidence pairs labeled as supported, refuted, or not enough information. Human evaluation carried out on a test sample from the dataset demonstrated strong inter-annotator agreement (kappa = 0.89) using Cohen's Kappa for supported claims and (kappa = 0.94) for refuted claims. Automatic validation based on a human-evaluated sample achieved 86% accuracy for supported claims and 88% for refuted ones. To showcase Arafa's value as a resource for automatic Arabic fact-checking, four open-source transformer-based models were fine-tuned using Arafa, with the top-performing model achieving a Macro F1-score of 77% on the test data. In addition to Arafa being the first large-scale dataset for Arabic fact-checking, our framework presents a scalable approach for developing similar resources for other low-resource languages.

We study body-only, 12-class acted-emotion classification from skeleton motion under leave-performer-out (LPO) evaluation, a hard, underdetermined setting: chance is 8.3%, and a protocol-matched reproduced STGCN++ baseline reaches only 25.73 +/- 4.03% Macro-F1. We show that reliable gains come not from a new architecture but from combining eleven models with orthogonal error modes: under 10-fold LPO cross-validation on the labeled training performers, an equal-weight logit-mean ensemble reaches 36.80 +/- 4.00% per-fold Macro-F1, a protocol-matched +11.07 pp (+43% relative) over the same-split reproduced baseline. Our central contribution is a tested explanation suite: for a strong ensemble member, part-masking and counterfactual edits show (rather than assert) that its decisions depend on motion-grounded body-region evidence, and this region saliency aligns with rule-based Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) attributes far more than with classical kinematics: region-level saliency-LMA Spearman rho = +0.500 versus +0.033, roughly 15x, and the alignment holds for the submitted 11-way ensemble itself at rho = +0.517; the audit is post hoc and needs no retraining. The same suite faithfully reports a negative: within-window temporal saliency is diffuse rather than localized. On the hidden challenge test set the submitted ensemble scored 37.23 % Macro-F1 and received the Best Performance Award of the MMAC Challenge 2026 (Human score is 39 %). Code is available at https://github.com/nawta/diema-challenge and the presentation at https://nawta.github.io/mmac2026/.

Omnimodal large language models (OLLMs) are susceptible to cross-modal hallucinations under audio-visual interference. We find that, for a substantial fraction of incorrect joint predictions, the question-relevant unimodal branch can still recover the correct answer, suggesting that task-relevant evidence can remain recoverable from the relevant modality even when it is not reflected in the joint prediction. We refer to this recoverable failure pattern as modality misrouting. We propose CaRe (Conflict-aware Residual Intervention), a training-free inference-time method for identifying and correcting modality misrouting. CaRe uses a text-only modality probe to identify a candidate modality-specific counterfactual branch, and flags potential misrouting when its prediction conflicts with the original joint prediction. For such cases, CaRe computes a residual direction from the discrepancy between the counterfactual and fused representations and uses it to steer the original multimodal state toward the relevant modality evidence, while retaining both modalities in the original audio-visual inference path. The intervention strength is adapted based on the confidence of the counterfactual branch. Experiments on CMM and AVHBench across two OLLMs show that CaRe consistently outperforms the evaluated inference-time hallucination-mitigation baselines.

Physical reasoning underpins how embodied systems understand and act in the physical world, yet vision-language models (VLMs) remain unreliable on questions about dynamics and physical causality. Progress is critically constrained by the scarcity of grounded counterfactual training data, as observational videos capture only the factual trajectory that occurred. The self-evolving paradigm offers a route beyond fixed datasets by enabling models to construct their own training problems. Extending this paradigm to physics, however, requires an external source of truth that can both validate model-proposed environments and verify alternative physical outcomes under intervention. We introduce , a verifier-grounded self-evolving framework that trains VLMs for causal physical reasoning from model-proposed executable worlds and simulation-authored tasks. At each round, a shared VLM proposes executable world programs and evidence schemas; a deterministic physics engine freezes each valid world, simulates matched baseline and body-elided counterfactual branches, and synthesizes discrete, answer-bound visual tasks. Exact verifier feedback from task solving updates both the shared policy via GRPO and an adaptive curriculum over physical intents. Starting from Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct, achieves targeted gains across PhysBench, CausalPhys, and ContPhy without human intervention data, improving PhysBench Throwing by 8.8 points and ContPhy Counterfactual Removal and Goal-Pit by 7.4 and 24.4 points. These gains concentrate on interaction-sensitive and altered-world questions, demonstrating zero-shot transfer of causal principles to unseen complex dynamics (cloth, fluid, soft bodies) and real-world video.

Large language models produce fluent text but struggle with systematic reasoning, often hallucinating confident but unfounded claims. When Apple researchers added irrelevant context to mathematical problems, LLM performance degraded by 65% Apple Machine Learning Research, exposing brittle pattern-matching beneath apparent reasoning. This epistemic gap, the inability to ground claims in traceable evidence, limits AI reliability in domains requiring justification. We introduce Pramana, a novel approach that teaches LLMs explicit epistemological methodology by fine-tuning on Navya-Nyaya logic, a 2,500-year-old Indian reasoning framework. Unlike generic chain-of-thought prompting, Navya-Nyaya enforces structured 6-phase reasoning: SAMSHAYA (doubt analysis), PRAMANA (evidence source identification), PANCHA AVAYAVA (5-member syllogism with universal rules), TARKA (counterfactual verification), HETVABHASA (fallacy detection), and NIRNAYA (ascertainment distinguishing knowledge from hypothesis). This integration of logic and epistemology provides cognitive scaffolding absent from standard reasoning approaches. We fine-tune Llama 3.2-3B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B on 55 Nyaya-structured logical problems (constraint satisfaction, Boolean SAT, multi-step deduction). Stage 1 achieves 100% semantic correctness on held-out evaluation despite only 40% strict format adherence revealing that models internalize reasoning content even when structural enforcement is imperfect. Ablation studies show format prompting and temperature critically affect performance, with optimal configurations differing by stage. We release all models, datasets, and training infrastructure on Hugging Face to enable further research on epistemic frameworks for AI reasoning.

Modern coding agents are usually evaluated by whether they eventually produce a correct patch, but patch generation depends on an earlier context-acquisition stage: finding the repository files needed for the task. We introduce Agent Retrieval Bench, a file-level benchmark for this upstream retrieval problem. Samples are built from real coding-workflow signals and evaluated against frozen base-commit repositories, with relevance defined by what an agent needs next rather than direct query-file semantic similarity. The benchmark covers four positive-retrieval tasks: code2test, comment2context, trace2code, and edit2ripple; a fifth subset evaluates selective retrieval using natural evidence-backed no-gold cases and counterfactual wrong-repository controls. Agent Retrieval Bench contains 427 samples across 25 repositories: 345 positive examples, 50 natural no-gold examples, and 32 counterfactual controls. The corpus includes 308 base-commit snapshots, 392,000 files, and 7.9 million chunks. We evaluate lexical retrieval, RepoMap, open-source embeddings, selective abstention, and logged agent context selection. No single retrieval family dominates: Qwen3-Embedding-4B has the best sample-weighted MRR on positive samples, Qwen3-Embedding-8B the best Recall@20, and RepoMap the best budgeted context yield at 8K tokens, with task-level winners differing substantially. Selective thresholds calibrated with counterfactual controls do not improve selective success on natural no-gold cases, revealing a calibration gap. Logged trajectories also miss every gold file on 27-35 percent of samples. A controlled seed-intervention pilot finds that retrieval-derived initial context yields higher file F1 with less post-seed exploration than random non-gold context, while oracle gold context shows substantial remaining headroom.

Language model agents are increasingly used to simulate social interaction, and the resulting transcripts read as though the agents understand one another. We ask whether that appearance rests on a model of the partner's mind or on the surface record of what the partner said. We build a social simulation in which both questions have exact answers: 40 multi-issue negotiations whose hidden preference weights and whose full Pareto frontier are known by construction. Two model families negotiate across 160 dyads, every transcript is frozen before any measurement, and 2880 counterfactual probes then hold the evidence byte identical while moving one factor at a time: the reader's own stake, the partner's tone, an identity label, and the order of recursion. The agents are socially fluent and economically poor. They reach agreement in 96.2% of dyads with 0 protocol failures, yet only 0.7% of deals land on the Pareto frontier, they leave 20.5% of the available joint value unclaimed, and they miss the one issue on which their interests are perfectly aligned in 76.6% of deals; on the frontier and on that aligned issue, a package drawn at random from the set both sides would accept does as well. The probes locate the failure. Swapping only the reader's own payoff sheet, while the partner's words and offers stay identical, moves the inferred top priority by 15.0 percentage points, which is egocentric projection rather than inference, while a tone rewrite moves it by 5.3 percentage points and an identity label by 0.0. Most tellingly, an agent predicts what its partner believes about it 72.5% of the time while that partner's belief is itself correct only 51.2% of the time: the agents track the conversation far better than they track the mind behind it.

Modern recommender systems treat observed actions as reliable proxies for user preferences, yet interactions often reflect exploration or comparison rather than stable preference expression. As interfaces evolve from static layouts toward generative UIs and immersive extended reality (XR), the need for deeper, modality-agnostic user understanding grows: these adaptive environments must decide not only what to present but where, when, how prominently, and most importantly why a user acts. We propose an Inverse Theory of Mind (IToM) pipeline that reasons backward from observed interactions to infer the beliefs, preferences, and decision-making traits that explain behavior. The pipeline reconstructs each user's decision context, including what was chosen and what alternatives were available, applies LLM-driven counterfactual reasoning to produce evidence-grounded natural-language belief statements, and synthesizes these beliefs through multi-hypothesis abductive inference into a structured user persona. We evaluate on the OPeRA dataset against ground-truth personality assessments, attitudinal surveys, and interview-based personas across four tasks: next action prediction, shopping attitude alignment, Big Five personality inference, and held-out category prediction. Results show that inferred personas match or exceed ground-truth personas and that multi-hypothesis reasoning is essential for accurate personality prediction. We further demonstrate cross-modal transferability with a persona-driven spatial banking application on VisionOS.

LLM-integrated software, which embeds or interacts with large language models (LLMs) as functional components, exhibits probabilistic and context-dependent behaviors that fundamentally differ from those of traditional software. This shift introduces a new category of integration defects that arise not only from code errors but also from misaligned interactions among LLM-specific artifacts, including prompts, API calls, configurations, and model outputs. However, existing defect localization techniques are ineffective at identifying these LLM-specific integration defects because they fail to capture cross-layer dependencies across heterogeneous artifacts, cannot exploit incomplete or misleading error traces, and lack semantic reasoning capabilities for identifying root causes. To address these challenges, we propose LIDL, a multi-agent framework for defect localization in LLM-integrated software. LIDL (1) constructs a code knowledge graph enriched with LLM-aware annotations that represent interaction boundaries across source code, prompts, and configuration files, (2) fuses three complementary sources of error evidence inferred by LLMs to surface candidate defect locations, and (3) applies context-aware validation that uses counterfactual reasoning to distinguish true root causes from propagated symptoms. We evaluate LIDL on 146 real-world defect instances collected from 105 GitHub repositories and 16 agent-based systems. The results show that LIDL significantly outperforms five state-of-the-art baselines across all metrics, achieving a Top-3 accuracy of 0.64 and a MAP of 0.48, which represents a 64.1% improvement over the best-performing baseline. Notably, LIDL achieves these gains while reducing cost by 92.5%, demonstrating both high accuracy and cost efficiency.

Model merging efficiently combines specialized large language models (LLMs) without joint retraining, but can substantially alter expert routing in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Such routing drift is often interpreted as routing failure, raising a fundamental question that remains unclear: does routing drift after MoE merging actually indicate routing failure, and what evidence should justify repair? We investigate these questions across DeepSeekMoE, OLMoE, and Qwen3-MoE proposing a routing analysis toolkit for controlled counterfactual interventions and token-level analysis. By crossing source and merged router inputs and parameters, we attribute most expert reassignments to input shifts rather than parameter changes at the same layer. However, source-relative routing differences poorly predict next-token likelihood gains from source-route restoration, and different expert selections can produce directionally similar mixture outputs. We therefore operationalize routing failure as task loss recoverable under a specified routing intervention, with non-routing parameters fixed. These tests detect recoverable loss under deliberate router corruption, whereas source-route restoration does not establish reliable task benefits in the evaluated merged models. Motivated by these, we propose Selective Router Repair (SRR) as a case study, and find that source-specialist token-likelihood advantages do not reliably identify beneficial local corrections. Together, these findings show that routing drift alone is insufficient evidence of routing failure: source-informed corrections must be judged by their task-level intervention effects. The analysis toolkit and SRR code are released.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Counterfactual reasoning requires models to reason beyond the observed world and explain how altered conditions propagate through downstream consequences. Existing benchmarks largely target bounded settings with fixed variables or single gold outcomes, overlooking open-domain scenarios requiring causal-process evaluation. To this end, we present WhatIfBench, a diagnostic benchmark for open-domain, open-form, long-horizon counterfactual causal reasoning, containing 220 what-if questions across STEM, HSS, and Hybrid scenarios. To evaluate free-form responses, we further propose PRISM, which first converts each natural-language explanation into a Response-Derived Semantic Causal Graph of events, states, and mechanisms. On top of this graph, PRISM then jointly applies a Process Metric assessing graph-level causal validity and a Rubric Metric assessing answer-level explanatory adequacy. Evaluating six frontier LLMs with this framework, we find that WhatIfBench remains far from saturated: even the strongest model reaches only a 64.62% final score. Further analysis reveals persistent causal gaps, premise drift, and topology fragmentation, suggesting that fluent counterfactual narratives often mask fragile causal processes. The benchmark, code, and evaluation scripts are available at https://github.com/zju-gt/WhatIfBench{WhatIfBench}.

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one categorical feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges for texts, however, as some attribute values may not necessarily align with plausible real-world events. In this paper we propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by intervening in the space of text representations which bypasses this limitation. We argue that our interventions are minimally disruptive and that they are theoretically sound as they align with counterfactuals as defined in Pearl's causal inference framework. To validate our method, we first conduct experiments on a synthetic dataset of counterfactuals, allowing for a direct comparison between classifier predictions based on ground truth counterfactuals (obtained through explicit text interventions) and our counterfactuals, derived through interventions in the representation space. Second, we study a real world scenario where our counterfactuals can be leveraged both for explaining a classifier and for bias mitigation.

This study evaluates the effect of counterfactual explanations on the interpretation of chest X-rays. We conduct a reader study with two radiologists assessing 240 chest X-ray predictions to rate their confidence that the model's prediction is correct using a 5 point scale. Half of the predictions are false positives. Each prediction is explained twice, once using traditional attribution methods and once with a counterfactual explanation. The overall results indicate that counterfactual explanations allow a radiologist to have more confidence in true positive predictions compared to traditional approaches (0.15pm0.95 with p=0.01) with only a small increase in false positive predictions (0.04pm1.06 with p=0.57). We observe the specific prediction tasks of Mass and Atelectasis appear to benefit the most compared to other tasks.

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models - a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Counterfactual reasoning requires predicting how alternative events, contrary to what actually happened, might have resulted in different outcomes. Despite being considered a necessary component of AI-complete systems, few resources have been developed for evaluating counterfactual reasoning in narratives. In this paper, we propose Counterfactual Story Rewriting: given an original story and an intervening counterfactual event, the task is to minimally revise the story to make it compatible with the given counterfactual event. Solving this task will require deep understanding of causal narrative chains and counterfactual invariance, and integration of such story reasoning capabilities into conditional language generation models. We present TimeTravel, a new dataset of 29,849 counterfactual rewritings, each with the original story, a counterfactual event, and human-generated revision of the original story compatible with the counterfactual event. Additionally, we include 80,115 counterfactual "branches" without a rewritten storyline to support future work on semi- or un-supervised approaches to counterfactual story rewriting. Finally, we evaluate the counterfactual rewriting capacities of several competitive baselines based on pretrained language models, and assess whether common overlap and model-based automatic metrics for text generation correlate well with human scores for counterfactual rewriting.

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual reasoning. In contrast to previous studies that primarily focus on commonsense causal reasoning, where LLMs often rely on prior knowledge for inference, we specifically assess their ability to perform counterfactual inference using a set of formal rules. To support this evaluation, we introduce a new benchmark dataset, CounterBench, comprising 1K counterfactual reasoning questions. The dataset is designed with varying levels of difficulty, diverse causal graph structures, distinct types of counterfactual questions, and multiple nonsensical name variants. Our experiments demonstrate that counterfactual reasoning poses a significant challenge for LLMs, with most models performing at levels comparable to random guessing. To enhance LLM's counterfactual reasoning ability, we propose a novel reasoning paradigm, CoIn, which guides LLMs through iterative reasoning and backtracking to systematically explore counterfactual solutions. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves LLM performance on counterfactual reasoning tasks and consistently enhances performance across different LLMs.Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CounterBench/CounterBench.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine learning based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our position is that causal inference specifies what constitutes a valid mapping from model activations to invariant high-level structures, the data or assumptions needed to achieve it, and the inferences it can support. Specifically, Pearl's causal hierarchy clarifies what an interpretability study can justify. Observations establish associations between model behaviour and internal components. Interventions (e.g., ablations or activation patching) support claims how these edits affect a behavioural metric (e.g., average change in token probabilities) over a set of prompts. However, counterfactual claims -- i.e., asking what the model output would have been for the same prompt under an unobserved intervention -- remain largely unverifiable without controlled supervision. We show how causal representation learning (CRL) operationalises this hierarchy, specifying which variables are recoverable from activations and under what assumptions. Together, these motivate a diagnostic framework that helps practitioners select methods and evaluations matching claims to evidence such that findings generalise.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is essential for advancing LLMs' causal understanding and expanding their applications in high-stakes domains such as scientific research. However, existing efforts in assessing LLM's counterfactual reasoning capabilities tend to skip the abduction step, effectively reducing to interventional reasoning and leading to overestimation of LLM performance. To address this, we introduce executable counterfactuals, a novel framework that operationalizes causal reasoning through code and math problems. Our framework explicitly requires all three steps of counterfactual reasoning and enables scalable synthetic data creation with varying difficulty, creating a frontier for evaluating and improving LLM's reasoning. Our results reveal substantial drop in accuracy (25-40%) from interventional to counterfactual reasoning for SOTA models like o4-mini and Claude-4-Sonnet. To address this gap, we construct a training set comprising counterfactual code problems having if-else condition and test on out-of-domain code structures (e.g. having while-loop); we also test whether a model trained on code would generalize to counterfactual math word problems. While supervised finetuning on stronger models' reasoning traces improves in-domain performance of Qwen models, it leads to a decrease in accuracy on OOD tasks such as counterfactual math problems. In contrast, reinforcement learning induces the core cognitive behaviors and generalizes to new domains, yielding gains over the base model on both code (improvement of 1.5x-2x) and math problems. Analysis of the reasoning traces reinforces these findings and highlights the promise of RL for improving LLMs' counterfactual reasoning.

Interventional counterfactuals evaluate statements such as "had A been a" by replacing the assignment for A while keeping the unit's exogenous background fixed. Backtracking counterfactuals reverse this logic: they preserve the structural assignments and instead vary background conditions across worlds. This semantics is natural for diagnostic explanation, but full backtracking may be too permissive because every exogenous coordinate can vary. We introduce scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, in which the modeler specifies which coordinates may vary while the remainder are shared across worlds. The scope determines the admissible carriers of the contrast, while a cross-world kernel governs the plausibility of their alternative values. We present model-based inference for general scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, derive sharp marginal bounds for a specified explanatory query, and establish frontier and compatibility conditions under which this explanatory query admits a modified-value policy representation. A linear-Gaussian example distinguishes local-noise, ancestor, irrelevant-noise, and infeasible explanations across scopes, while an application to the UCI Adult benchmark illustrates kernel specification, sensitivity, and how much of the explanation is carried by the cross-world coupling itself.

Counterfactual explanations is one of the post-hoc methods used to provide explainability to machine learning models that have been attracting attention in recent years. Most examples in the literature, address the problem of generating post-hoc explanations for black-box machine learning models after the rejection of a loan application. In contrast, in this work, we investigate mathematical programming formulations for scorecard models, a type of interpretable model predominant within the banking industry for lending. The proposed mixed-integer programming formulations combine objective functions to ensure close, realistic and sparse counterfactuals using multi-objective optimization techniques for a binary, probability or continuous outcome. Moreover, we extend these formulations to generate multiple optimal counterfactuals simultaneously while guaranteeing diversity. Experiments on two real-world datasets confirm that the presented approach can generate optimal diverse counterfactuals addressing desired properties with assumable CPU times for practice use.

Models driven by spurious correlations often yield poor generalization performance. We propose the counterfactual (CF) alignment method to detect and quantify spurious correlations of black box classifiers. Our methodology is based on counterfactual images generated with respect to one classifier being input into other classifiers to see if they also induce changes in the outputs of these classifiers. The relationship between these responses can be quantified and used to identify specific instances where a spurious correlation exists. This is validated by observing intuitive trends in face-attribute and waterbird classifiers, as well as by fabricating spurious correlations and detecting their presence, both visually and quantitatively. Furthermore, utilizing the CF alignment method, we demonstrate that we can evaluate robust optimization methods (GroupDRO, JTT, and FLAC) by detecting a reduction in spurious correlations.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

Counterfactual statements describe events that did not or cannot take place. We consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) in product reviews. For this purpose, we annotate a multilingual CFD dataset from Amazon product reviews covering counterfactual statements written in English, German, and Japanese languages. The dataset is unique as it contains counterfactuals in multiple languages, covers a new application area of e-commerce reviews, and provides high quality professional annotations. We train CFD models using different text representation methods and classifiers. We find that these models are robust against the selectional biases introduced due to cue phrase-based sentence selection. Moreover, our CFD dataset is compatible with prior datasets and can be merged to learn accurate CFD models. Applying machine translation on English counterfactual examples to create multilingual data performs poorly, demonstrating the language-specificity of this problem, which has been ignored so far.

Vision Language Models (VLMs) have recently shown significant advancements in video understanding, especially in feature alignment, event reasoning, and instruction-following tasks. However, their capability for counterfactual reasoning, inferring alternative outcomes under hypothetical conditions, remains underexplored. This capability is essential for robust video understanding, as it requires identifying underlying causal structures and reasoning about unobserved possibilities, rather than merely recognizing observed patterns. To systematically evaluate this capability, we introduce CounterVQA, a video-based benchmark featuring three progressive difficulty levels that assess different aspects of counterfactual reasoning. Through comprehensive evaluation of both state-of-the-art open-source and closed-source models, we uncover a substantial performance gap: while these models achieve reasonable accuracy on simple counterfactual questions, performance degrades significantly on complex multi-hop causal chains. To address these limitations, we develop a post-training method, CFGPT, that enhances a model's visual counterfactual reasoning ability by distilling its counterfactual reasoning capability from the language modality, yielding consistent improvements across all CounterVQA difficulty levels. Dataset and code will be further released.

Multimodal counterfactual reasoning is a vital yet challenging ability for AI systems. It involves predicting the outcomes of hypothetical circumstances based on vision and language inputs, which enables AI models to learn from failures and explore hypothetical scenarios. Despite its importance, there are only a few datasets targeting the counterfactual reasoning abilities of multimodal models. Among them, they only cover reasoning over synthetic environments or specific types of events (e.g. traffic collisions), making them hard to reliably benchmark the model generalization ability in diverse real-world scenarios and reasoning dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we develop a video question answering dataset, ACQUIRED: it consists of 3.9K annotated videos, encompassing a wide range of event types and incorporating both first and third-person viewpoints, which ensures a focus on real-world diversity. In addition, each video is annotated with questions that span three distinct dimensions of reasoning, including physical, social, and temporal, which can comprehensively evaluate the model counterfactual abilities along multiple aspects. We benchmark our dataset against several state-of-the-art language-only and multimodal models and experimental results demonstrate a significant performance gap (>13%) between models and humans. The findings suggest that multimodal counterfactual reasoning remains an open challenge and ACQUIRED is a comprehensive and reliable benchmark for inspiring future research in this direction.

We study causal logistic bandits with counterfactual fairness constraints. The causal structure is given through known factual and counterfactual feature maps that share an unknown logistic reward parameter, but the learner observes only factual rewards. Consequently, the directions determining counterfactual feasibility need not be identifiable from the available feedback. The closest prior analyses either omit a coverage condition or impose a comparatively strong one, and do not establish matching lower bounds. We first show that some coverage condition is necessary: without a coverage-type restriction, factually indistinguishable environments with different optimal fair actions force Ω(T) expected joint loss. Under a weaker full-rank condition on the factual covariance pooled across actions, we identify a target-specific information scale V_star that measures the difficulty of estimating rewards and counterfactual effects from factual feedback. We construct worst-case families satisfying this condition on which every policy incurs expected joint loss Ωleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}right). We also give an explore--then--exploit procedure tuned using V_star and an adaptive algorithm that does not require its value. Both algorithms achieve max{R_T,V_T}=Oleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}+κd/σ_0^2right), where R_T is regret relative to the best fair action and V_T denotes the cumulative stage-wise positive violations. Thus the upper and lower bounds match in their leading dependence on T, V_star, and min{log K,d}, up to logarithmic factors.

Understanding and manipulating the causal generation mechanisms in language models is essential for controlling their behavior. Previous work has primarily relied on techniques such as representation surgery -- e.g., model ablations or manipulation of linear subspaces tied to specific concepts -- to intervene on these models. To understand the impact of interventions precisely, it is useful to examine counterfactuals -- e.g., how a given sentence would have appeared had it been generated by the model following a specific intervention. We highlight that counterfactual reasoning is conceptually distinct from interventions, as articulated in Pearl's causal hierarchy. Based on this observation, we propose a framework for generating true string counterfactuals by reformulating language models as Generalized Structural-equation. Models using the Gumbel-max trick. This allows us to model the joint distribution over original strings and their counterfactuals resulting from the same instantiation of the sampling noise. We develop an algorithm based on hindsight Gumbel sampling that allows us to infer the latent noise variables and generate counterfactuals of observed strings. Our experiments demonstrate that the approach produces meaningful counterfactuals while at the same time showing that commonly used intervention techniques have considerable undesired side effects.

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous models are reliant on clue phrases to predict counterfactuality, so they suffer from significant performance drop when clue phrase hints do not exist during testing. Moreover, these models tend to predict non-counterfactuals over counterfactuals. To address these issues, we propose to integrate neural topic model into the CFD model to capture the global semantics of the input statement. We continue to causally intervene the hidden representations of the CFD model to balance the effect of the class labels. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms previous state-of-the-art CFD and bias-resolving methods in both the CFD and other bias-sensitive tasks.

The aim of Logic2Text is to generate controllable and faithful texts conditioned on tables and logical forms, which not only requires a deep understanding of the tables and logical forms, but also warrants symbolic reasoning over the tables. State-of-the-art methods based on pre-trained models have achieved remarkable performance on the standard test dataset. However, we question whether these methods really learn how to perform logical reasoning, rather than just relying on the spurious correlations between the headers of the tables and operators of the logical form. To verify this hypothesis, we manually construct a set of counterfactual samples, which modify the original logical forms to generate counterfactual logical forms with rarely co-occurred table headers and logical operators. SOTA methods give much worse results on these counterfactual samples compared with the results on the original test dataset, which verifies our hypothesis. To deal with this problem, we firstly analyze this bias from a causal perspective, based on which we propose two approaches to reduce the model's reliance on the shortcut. The first one incorporates the hierarchical structure of the logical forms into the model. The second one exploits automatically generated counterfactual data for training. Automatic and manual experimental results on the original test dataset and the counterfactual dataset show that our method is effective to alleviate the spurious correlation. Our work points out the weakness of previous methods and takes a further step toward developing Logic2Text models with real logical reasoning ability.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, yet they frequently generate hallucinations outputs that are fluent but factually incorrect or unsupported. We propose Counterfactual Probing, a novel approach for detecting and mitigating hallucinations in LLM outputs. Our method dynamically generates counterfactual statements that appear plausible but contain subtle factual errors, then evaluates the model's sensitivity to these perturbations. We hypothesize that genuine knowledge exhibits robustness to counterfactual variations, while hallucinated content shows inconsistent confidence patterns when confronted with plausible alternatives. Our comprehensive evaluation on TruthfulQA, factual statement datasets, and curated hallucination examples demonstrates that counterfactual probing achieves superior detection performance compared to baseline methods, while our adaptive mitigation strategies reduce hallucination scores by an average of 24.5%. The approach requires no model retraining and can be integrated into existing LLM pipelines as a realtime verification mechanism.

Counterfactual examples have proven to be valuable in the field of natural language processing (NLP) for both evaluating and improving the robustness of language models to spurious correlations in datasets. Despite their demonstrated utility for NLP, multimodal counterfactual examples have been relatively unexplored due to the difficulty of creating paired image-text data with minimal counterfactual changes. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable framework for automatic generation of counterfactual examples using text-to-image diffusion models. We use our framework to create COCO-Counterfactuals, a multimodal counterfactual dataset of paired image and text captions based on the MS-COCO dataset. We validate the quality of COCO-Counterfactuals through human evaluations and show that existing multimodal models are challenged by our counterfactual image-text pairs. Additionally, we demonstrate the usefulness of COCO-Counterfactuals for improving out-of-domain generalization of multimodal vision-language models via training data augmentation.

As machine learning models evolve, maintaining transparency demands more human-centric explainable AI techniques. Counterfactual explanations, with roots in human reasoning, identify the minimal input changes needed to obtain a given output and, hence, are crucial for supporting decision-making. Despite their importance, the evaluation of these explanations often lacks grounding in user studies and remains fragmented, with existing metrics not fully capturing human perspectives. To address this challenge, we developed a diverse set of 30 counterfactual scenarios and collected ratings across 8 evaluation metrics from 206 respondents. Subsequently, we fine-tuned different Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict average or individual human judgment across these metrics. Our methodology allowed LLMs to achieve an accuracy of up to 63% in zero-shot evaluations and 85% (over a 3-classes prediction) with fine-tuning across all metrics. The fine-tuned models predicting human ratings offer better comparability and scalability in evaluating different counterfactual explanation frameworks.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

Although counterfactual reasoning is a fundamental aspect of intelligence, the lack of large-scale counterfactual open-domain question-answering (QA) benchmarks makes it difficult to evaluate and improve models on this ability. To address this void, we introduce the first such dataset, named IfQA, where each question is based on a counterfactual presupposition via an "if" clause. For example, if Los Angeles was on the east coast of the U.S., what would be the time difference between Los Angeles and Paris? Such questions require models to go beyond retrieving direct factual knowledge from the Web: they must identify the right information to retrieve and reason about an imagined situation that may even go against the facts built into their parameters. The IfQA dataset contains over 3,800 questions that were annotated annotated by crowdworkers on relevant Wikipedia passages. Empirical analysis reveals that the IfQA dataset is highly challenging for existing open-domain QA methods, including supervised retrieve-then-read pipeline methods (EM score 36.2), as well as recent few-shot approaches such as chain-of-thought prompting with GPT-3 (EM score 27.4). The unique challenges posed by the IfQA benchmark will push open-domain QA research on both retrieval and counterfactual reasoning fronts.

Text-to-image (T2I) generation models have achieved remarkable progress in producing visually realistic images from natural language prompts. Yet it remains unclear whether their success reflects genuine causal understanding or sophisticated pattern matching over visual-textual correlations. Inspired by Russell's inductivist turkey, we introduce Counterfactual-World (CF-World), a counterfactual benchmark designed to investigate whether text-to-image models can generate images under rules that systematically contradict real-world priors. CF-World organizes each scenario into three progressive levels: factual generation under ordinary world knowledge, explicit counterfactual generation with direct visual instructions, and implicit counterfactual generation requiring causal deduction from altered rules. We evaluate both open-source and closed-source T2I models using a Vision Language Model (VLM)-based evaluator (CF-Eval). Furthermore, we introduce two metrics: Prior Resistance Rate (PRR), which measures a model's ability to overcome entrenched real-world priors, and Reasoning Retention Rate (RRR), which assesses whether models can maintain reasoning-dependent counterfactual generation without explicit visual cues. Experiments show that all models exhibit sharp degradation from factual to counterfactual settings. Further analyses suggest that these failures arise because current T2I models encode world knowledge and visual appearances as tightly coupled patterns. Consequently, their heavy reliance on frequent visual co-occurrences within the training data forces them to default to familiar commonsense priors when tasked with rendering counterfactual worlds.

While state-of-the-art NLP models have been achieving the excellent performance of a wide range of tasks in recent years, important questions are being raised about their robustness and their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases that may exist in their training and test data. Such issues come to be manifest in performance problems when faced with out-of-distribution data in the field. One recent solution has been to use counterfactually augmented datasets in order to reduce any reliance on spurious patterns that may exist in the original data. Producing high-quality augmented data can be costly and time-consuming as it usually needs to involve human feedback and crowdsourcing efforts. In this work, we propose an alternative by describing and evaluating an approach to automatically generating counterfactual data for data augmentation and explanation. A comprehensive evaluation on several different datasets and using a variety of state-of-the-art benchmarks demonstrate how our approach can achieve significant improvements in model performance when compared to models training on the original data and even when compared to models trained with the benefit of human-generated augmented data.

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the causal relationships of the slate to reweight the rewards in the logging policy in a way that approximates the expected sum of rewards under the target policy. Extensive experiments in simulation and on a live recommender system show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of bias and data efficiency for the sequential track recommendations problem.

Counterfactual inference in Gaussian-process structural causal models (GP-SCMs) has been developed primarily for continuous endogenous variables, limiting applicability to causal graphs that contain discrete child nodes with continuous parents. We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for counterfactual inference with heterogeneous variable types by pairing GP predictors with explicit exogenous noise mechanisms. For discrete outcomes, we derive exact conditional noise-abduction procedures using a uniform threshold for binary variables, a Gumbel-max race for nominal categories, and a latent Gaussian cut-point model for ordinal ones. In each case, we propagate abducted noise through interventions while accounting for posterior uncertainty in the GP latent functions, and prove that the resulting mechanisms reproduce the fitted model's observational and interventional distributions. On synthetic SCMs with known ground-truth counterfactuals, we evaluate estimation accuracy, consistency, and robustness to coupling misspecification. A key finding is that applying a categorical coupling to ordinal data inflates counterfactual error roughly threefold even when observational fit remains comparable, and that this error does not diminish with more data. As the training set grows, the fitted structural equation converges to the truth while the counterfactual error flattens onto a floor. In the reverse direction, forcing a false order onto nominal data instead degrades the fitted equation itself. The choice of coupling must therefore be justified on structural grounds rather than read off the fit.

Counterfactual explanations are most useful when they can be generated with low latency, remain close to the factual input, and satisfy input-domain, categorical, and actionability constraints. Achieving these objectives simultaneously is challenging for deep neural networks. Heuristic methods are often fast but may return invalid counterfactuals, whereas exact methods can certify global proximity but may not finish within practical time limits. We introduce DASH, a batched heuristic search method for finding close, valid, and actionable counterfactuals for deep neural networks under ell_1, ell_2, and ell_infty objectives. DASH uses directional Lipschitz bounds and local affine models to generate anchors, then ranks and expands promising regions with batched network evaluations. We compare DASH against nine prior heuristic methods and time-limited exact mixed-integer baselines on four tabular datasets, with network depths from 2 to 32, and evaluate scalability on PBMC3k. Across 9,000 tabular query-norm cases, DASH returns a valid counterfactual within 5% of the best heuristic-observed valid distance in 94.6% of cases, with a median CPU search runtime of 0.061 s. PGD-bisect, the baseline with the highest pooled within-5% coverage, meets this criterion in 41.1% of cases, with a median runtime of 0.298 s. These results show that the proposed search maintains high valid proximity across norms while keeping its search runtime practical.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate counterfactual simulatability of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers "yes" to the input question "Can eagles fly?" with the explanation "all birds can fly", then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer "yes" to the counterfactual input "Can penguins fly?". If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may not be a sufficient solution.

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either explicit or implicit causal reasoning, yet there is a strong need for a unified approach combining both to tackle a wide array of causal relationships more effectively. This research proposes a novel architecture called Context Aware Reasoning Enhancement with Counterfactual Analysis(CARE CA) framework to enhance causal reasoning and explainability. The proposed framework incorporates an explicit causal detection module with ConceptNet and counterfactual statements, as well as implicit causal detection through LLMs. Our framework goes one step further with a layer of counterfactual explanations to accentuate LLMs understanding of causality. The knowledge from ConceptNet enhances the performance of multiple causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery, causal identification and counterfactual reasoning. The counterfactual sentences add explicit knowledge of the not caused by scenarios. By combining these powerful modules, our model aims to provide a deeper understanding of causal relationships, enabling enhanced interpretability. Evaluation of benchmark datasets shows improved performance across all metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. We also introduce CausalNet, a new dataset accompanied by our code, to facilitate further research in this domain.

Causal explanations of the predictions of NLP systems are essential to ensure safety and establish trust. Yet, existing methods often fall short of explaining model predictions effectively or efficiently and are often model-specific. In this paper, we address model-agnostic explanations, proposing two approaches for counterfactual (CF) approximation. The first approach is CF generation, where a large language model (LLM) is prompted to change a specific text concept while keeping confounding concepts unchanged. While this approach is demonstrated to be very effective, applying LLM at inference-time is costly. We hence present a second approach based on matching, and propose a method that is guided by an LLM at training-time and learns a dedicated embedding space. This space is faithful to a given causal graph and effectively serves to identify matches that approximate CFs. After showing theoretically that approximating CFs is required in order to construct faithful explanations, we benchmark our approaches and explain several models, including LLMs with billions of parameters. Our empirical results demonstrate the excellent performance of CF generation models as model-agnostic explainers. Moreover, our matching approach, which requires far less test-time resources, also provides effective explanations, surpassing many baselines. We also find that Top-K techniques universally improve every tested method. Finally, we showcase the potential of LLMs in constructing new benchmarks for model explanation and subsequently validate our conclusions. Our work illuminates new pathways for efficient and accurate approaches to interpreting NLP systems.

We introduce Multi-Objective Counterfactuals for Design (MCD), a novel method for counterfactual optimization in design problems. Counterfactuals are hypothetical situations that can lead to a different decision or choice. In this paper, the authors frame the counterfactual search problem as a design recommendation tool that can help identify modifications to a design, leading to better functional performance. MCD improves upon existing counterfactual search methods by supporting multi-objective queries, which are crucial in design problems, and by decoupling the counterfactual search and sampling processes, thus enhancing efficiency and facilitating objective tradeoff visualization. The paper demonstrates MCD's core functionality using a two-dimensional test case, followed by three case studies of bicycle design that showcase MCD's effectiveness in real-world design problems. In the first case study, MCD excels at recommending modifications to query designs that can significantly enhance functional performance, such as weight savings and improvements to the structural safety factor. The second case study demonstrates that MCD can work with a pre-trained language model to suggest design changes based on a subjective text prompt effectively. Lastly, the authors task MCD with increasing a query design's similarity to a target image and text prompt while simultaneously reducing weight and improving structural performance, demonstrating MCD's performance on a complex multimodal query. Overall, MCD has the potential to provide valuable recommendations for practitioners and design automation researchers looking for answers to their ``What if'' questions by exploring hypothetical design modifications and their impact on multiple design objectives. The code, test problems, and datasets used in the paper are available to the public at decode.mit.edu/projects/counterfactuals/.

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions. CVR prediction models are typically trained solely based on clicked samples, as conversions can only be determined following clicks. However, the sparsity of clicked instances necessitates the collection of a substantial amount of logs for effective model training. Recent works address this issue by devising frameworks that leverage non-clicked samples. While these frameworks aim to reduce biases caused by the discrepancy between clicked and non-clicked samples, they often rely on heuristics. Against this background, we propose a method to counterfactually generate conversion labels for non-clicked samples by using causality as a guiding principle, attempting to answer the question, "Would the user have converted if he or she had clicked the recommended item?" Our approach is named the Entire Space Counterfactual Inference Multi-task Model (ESCIM). We initially train a structural causal model (SCM) of user sequential behaviors and conduct a hypothetical intervention (i.e., click) on non-clicked items to infer counterfactual CVRs. We then introduce several approaches to transform predicted counterfactual CVRs into binary counterfactual conversion labels for the non-clicked samples. Finally, the generated samples are incorporated into the training process. Extensive experiments on public datasets illustrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Online A/B testing further empirically validates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in real-world scenarios. In addition, we demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method on latent conversion data, showcasing its robustness and superior generalization capabilities.

Despite the increasing effectiveness of language models, their reasoning capabilities remain underdeveloped. In particular, causal reasoning through counterfactual question answering is lacking. This work aims to bridge this gap. We first derive novel metrics that balance accuracy in factual and counterfactual questions, capturing a more complete view of the reasoning abilities of language models than traditional factual-only based metrics. Second, we propose several fine-tuning approaches that aim to elicit better reasoning mechanisms, in the sense of the proposed metrics. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the fine-tuned language models in a variety of realistic scenarios. In particular, we investigate to what extent our fine-tuning approaches systemically achieve better generalization with respect to the base models in several problems that require, among others, inductive and deductive reasoning capabilities.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

When people reason about cause and effect, they often consider many competing "what if" scenarios before deciding which explanation fits best. Analogously, advanced language models capable of causal inference can consider multiple interventions and counterfactuals to judge the validity of causal claims. Crucially, this type of reasoning is less like a single calculation and more like an internal dialogue between alternative hypotheses. In this paper, we make this dialogue explicit through a dual-agent debate framework where one model provides a structured causal inference, and the other critically examines this reasoning for logical flaws. When disagreements arise, agents attempt to persuade each other, challenging each other's logic and revising their conclusions until they converge on a mutually agreed answer. To take advantage of this deliberative process, we specifically use reasoning language models, whose strengths in both causal inference and adversarial debate remain under-explored relative to standard large language models. We evaluate our approach on the CLadder dataset, a benchmark linking natural language questions to formally defined causal graphs across all three rungs of Pearl's ladder of causation. With Qwen3 and DeepSeek-R1 as debater agents, we demonstrate that multi-agent debate improves DeepSeek-R1's overall accuracy in causal inference from 78.03% to 87.45%, with the counterfactual category specifically improving from 67.94% to 80.04% accuracy. Similarly, Qwen3's overall accuracy improves from 84.16% to 89.41%, and counterfactual questions from 71.53% to 80.35%, showing that strong models can still benefit greatly from debate with weaker agents. Our results highlight the potential of reasoning models as building blocks for multi-agent systems in causal inference, and demonstrate the importance of diverse perspectives in causal problem-solving.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have significantly enhanced their capabilities in complex problem-solving by introducing a thinking draft that enables multi-path Chain-of-Thought explorations before producing final answers. Ensuring the faithfulness of these intermediate reasoning processes is crucial for reliable monitoring, interpretation, and effective control. In this paper, we propose a systematic counterfactual intervention framework to rigorously evaluate thinking draft faithfulness. Our approach focuses on two complementary dimensions: (1) Intra-Draft Faithfulness, which assesses whether individual reasoning steps causally influence subsequent steps and the final draft conclusion through counterfactual step insertions; and (2) Draft-to-Answer Faithfulness, which evaluates whether final answers are logically consistent with and dependent on the thinking draft, by perturbing the draft's concluding logic. We conduct extensive experiments across six state-of-the-art LRMs. Our findings show that current LRMs demonstrate selective faithfulness to intermediate reasoning steps and frequently fail to faithfully align with the draft conclusions. These results underscore the need for more faithful and interpretable reasoning in advanced LRMs.

Models trained with counterfactually augmented data learn representations of the causal structure of tasks, enabling robust generalization. However, high-quality counterfactual data is scarce for most tasks and not easily generated at scale. When crowdsourced, such data is typically limited in scale and diversity; when generated using supervised methods, it is computationally expensive to extend to new counterfactual dimensions. In this work, we introduce DISCO (DIStilled COunterfactual Data), a new method for automatically generating high quality counterfactual data at scale. DISCO engineers prompts to generate phrasal perturbations with a large general language model. Then, a task-specific teacher model filters these generations to distill high-quality counterfactual data. While task-agnostic, we apply our pipeline to the task of natural language inference (NLI) and find that on challenging evaluations such as the NLI stress test, comparatively smaller student models trained with DISCO generated counterfactuals are more robust (6% absolute) and generalize better across distributions (2%) compared to models trained without data augmentation. Furthermore, DISCO augmented models are 10% more consistent between counterfactual pairs on three evaluation sets, demonstrating that DISCO augmentation enables models to more reliably learn causal representations. Our repository is available at: https://github.com/eric11eca/disco

Concept-based explanations quantify how high-level concepts (e.g., gender or experience) influence model behavior, which is crucial for decision-makers in high-stakes domains. Recent work evaluates the faithfulness of such explanations by comparing them to reference causal effects estimated from counterfactuals. In practice, existing benchmarks rely on costly human-written counterfactuals that serve as an imperfect proxy. To address this, we introduce a framework for constructing datasets containing structural counterfactual pairs: LIBERTy (LLM-based Interventional Benchmark for Explainability with Reference Targets). LIBERTy is grounded in explicitly defined Structured Causal Models (SCMs) of the text generation, interventions on a concept propagate through the SCM until an LLM generates the counterfactual. We introduce three datasets (disease detection, CV screening, and workplace violence prediction) together with a new evaluation metric, order-faithfulness. Using them, we evaluate a wide range of methods across five models and identify substantial headroom for improving concept-based explanations. LIBERTy also enables systematic analysis of model sensitivity to interventions: we find that proprietary LLMs show markedly reduced sensitivity to demographic concepts, likely due to post-training mitigation. Overall, LIBERTy provides a much-needed benchmark for developing faithful explainability methods.

Large-scale video generation models are increasingly viewed as a promising path toward world models, yet their ability to capture causally coherent physical dynamics remains poorly understood. Existing evaluations largely emphasize visual quality, prompt adherence, or broad physical plausibility, leaving open whether a model can faithfully realize a complete causal cascade, in which an initiating event propagates through causally dependent interactions to a terminal outcome. We introduce CausalCascade, a simulator-grounded benchmark centered on 50 event-rich Blender scenes with structured event graphs, graph-grounded diagnostic VQA, three levels of future-event specification, and 2,832 controlled counterfactual variants, and use it to evaluate nine image-to-video models with complementary motion-, event-, and counterfactual-level diagnostics. Across the evaluated models, generated motion is more reliably localized spatially than realized with correct spatiotemporal evolution, while richer future-event specification improves event recovery but leaves physical realization limited. Counterfactual evaluation further reveals weak selective responsiveness to physical interventions, while most audited failures are foundational, arising at scene consistency or event occurrence. Together, these results position causal cascade generation as a process-level test of world modeling and highlight the need to jointly recover the intended future, faithfully realize its physical evolution, selectively respond to physical interventions, and maintain a coherent physical world over time. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepDeltaLab/CausalCascade .

Logical reading comprehension is a challenging task that entails grasping the underlying semantics of text and applying reasoning to deduce the correct answer. Prior researches have primarily focused on enhancing logical reasoning capabilities through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) or data augmentation. However, previous work constructing chain-of-thought rationales concentrates solely on analyzing correct options, neglecting the incorrect alternatives. Addtionally, earlier efforts on data augmentation by altering contexts rely on rule-based methods, which result in generated contexts that lack diversity and coherence. To address these issues, we propose a Premise-Oriented Data Augmentation (PODA) framework. This framework can generate CoT rationales including analyses for both correct and incorrect options, while constructing diverse and high-quality counterfactual contexts from incorrect candidate options. We integrate summarizing premises and identifying premises for each option into rationales. Subsequently, we employ multi-step prompts with identified premises to construct counterfactual context. To facilitate the model's capabilities to better differentiate the reasoning process associated with each option, we introduce a novel thought-path contrastive learning method that compares reasoning paths between the original and counterfactual samples. Experimental results on three representative LLMs demonstrate that our method can improve the baselines substantially across two challenging logical reasoning benchmarks (ReClor and LogiQA 2.0). The data and code are released at https://github.com/lalalamdbf/TPReasoner.

Automated detection of vulnerabilities in source code is an essential cybersecurity challenge, underpinning trust in digital systems and services. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a promising approach as they can learn structural and logical code relationships in a data-driven manner. However, their performance is severely constrained by training data imbalances and label noise. GNNs often learn 'spurious' correlations from superficial code similarities, producing detectors that fail to generalize well to unseen real-world data. In this work, we propose a unified framework for robust and interpretable vulnerability detection, called VISION, to mitigate spurious correlations by systematically augmenting a counterfactual training dataset. Counterfactuals are samples with minimal semantic modifications but opposite labels. Our framework includes: (i) generating counterfactuals by prompting a Large Language Model (LLM); (ii) targeted GNN training on paired code examples with opposite labels; and (iii) graph-based interpretability to identify the crucial code statements relevant for vulnerability predictions while ignoring spurious ones. We find that VISION reduces spurious learning and enables more robust, generalizable detection, improving overall accuracy (from 51.8% to 97.8%), pairwise contrast accuracy (from 4.5% to 95.8%), and worst-group accuracy (from 0.7% to 85.5%) on the Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE)-20 vulnerability. We further demonstrate gains using proposed metrics: intra-class attribution variance, inter-class attribution distance, and node score dependency. We also release CWE-20-CFA, a benchmark of 27,556 functions (real and counterfactual) from the high-impact CWE-20 category. Finally, VISION advances transparent and trustworthy AI-based cybersecurity systems through interactive visualization for human-in-the-loop analysis.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in performing complex tasks. While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been effective in aligning LLMs with human preferences, it is susceptible to spurious correlations in reward modeling. Consequently, it often introduces biases-such as length bias, sycophancy, conceptual bias, and discrimination that hinder the model's ability to capture true causal relationships. To address this, we propose a novel causal reward modeling approach that integrates causal inference to mitigate these spurious correlations. Our method enforces counterfactual invariance, ensuring reward predictions remain consistent when irrelevant variables are altered. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our approach mitigates various types of spurious correlations effectively, resulting in more reliable and fair alignment of LLMs with human preferences. As a drop-in enhancement to the existing RLHF workflow, our causal reward modeling provides a practical way to improve the trustworthiness and fairness of LLM finetuning.

Large language model (LLM)-powered agents can translate high-level user intents into plans and actions in an environment. Yet after observing an outcome, users may wonder: What if I had phrased my intent differently? We introduce a framework that enables such counterfactual reasoning in agentic LLM-driven control scenarios, while providing formal reliability guarantees. Our approach models the closed-loop interaction between a user, an LLM-based agent, and an environment as a structural causal model (SCM), and leverages test-time scaling to generate multiple candidate counterfactual outcomes via probabilistic abduction. Through an offline calibration phase, the proposed conformal counterfactual generation (CCG) yields sets of counterfactual outcomes that are guaranteed to contain the true counterfactual outcome with high probability. We showcase the performance of CCG on a wireless network control use case, demonstrating significant advantages compared to naive re-execution baselines.

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

VQA models may tend to rely on language bias as a shortcut and thus fail to sufficiently learn the multi-modal knowledge from both vision and language. Recent debiasing methods proposed to exclude the language prior during inference. However, they fail to disentangle the "good" language context and "bad" language bias from the whole. In this paper, we investigate how to mitigate language bias in VQA. Motivated by causal effects, we proposed a novel counterfactual inference framework, which enables us to capture the language bias as the direct causal effect of questions on answers and reduce the language bias by subtracting the direct language effect from the total causal effect. Experiments demonstrate that our proposed counterfactual inference framework 1) is general to various VQA backbones and fusion strategies, 2) achieves competitive performance on the language-bias sensitive VQA-CP dataset while performs robustly on the balanced VQA v2 dataset without any augmented data. The code is available at https://github.com/yuleiniu/cfvqa.

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

Machine learning predicts outcomes well, but predictive accuracy does not ensure reliable counterfactual responses. We examine how to combine machine learning and theory for measurement and counterfactual analysis, using maritime CO2 emissions where physics provides a benchmark speed response. Matching hourly tracking data for dry bulk and container ships to annual fuel consumption reported under EU regulations, we compare engineering calculations, structural regressions, hybrid models, and machine learning. Out of sample, all estimated models predict within a few percent of reported totals, outperforming standard engineering calculations. Yet pure machine learning and unrestricted structural regression imply attenuated speed responses. Hybrids preserve the structural component's speed response by excluding speed-related inputs from the machine learning component. A cost-benefit analysis of speed reductions illustrates the policy stakes: an attenuated speed response can flip the sign of net benefits. Accurate aggregate predictions therefore cannot substitute for scrutiny of the restrictions determining counterfactual responses.

Recent advancements in recommender systems have focused on leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve user preference modeling, yielding promising outcomes. However, current LLM-based approaches struggle to fully leverage user behavior sequences, resulting in suboptimal preference modeling for personalized recommendations. In this study, we propose a novel Counterfactual Fine-Tuning (CFT) method to address this issue by explicitly emphasizing the role of behavior sequences when generating recommendations. Specifically, we employ counterfactual reasoning to identify the causal effects of behavior sequences on model output and introduce a task that directly fits the ground-truth labels based on these effects, achieving the goal of explicit emphasis. Additionally, we develop a token-level weighting mechanism to adjust the emphasis strength for different item tokens, reflecting the diminishing influence of behavior sequences from earlier to later tokens during predicting an item. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CFT effectively improves behavior sequence modeling. Our codes are available at https://github.com/itsmeyjt/CFT.

Counterfactual medical image generation enables clinicians to explore clinical hypotheses, such as predicting disease progression, facilitating their decision-making. While existing methods can generate visually plausible images from disease progression prompts, they produce silent predictions that lack interpretation to verify how the generation reflects the hypothesized progression -- a critical gap for medical applications that require traceable reasoning. In this paper, we propose Interpretable Counterfactual Generation (ICG), a novel task requiring the joint generation of counterfactual images that reflect the clinical hypothesis and interpretation texts that outline the visual changes induced by the hypothesis. To enable ICG, we present ICG-CXR, the first dataset pairing longitudinal medical images with hypothetical progression prompts and textual interpretations. We further introduce ProgEmu, an autoregressive model that unifies the generation of counterfactual images and textual interpretations. We demonstrate the superiority of ProgEmu in generating progression-aligned counterfactuals and interpretations, showing significant potential in enhancing clinical decision support and medical education. Project page: https://progemu.github.io.

This paper uncovers a critical yet overlooked phenomenon in multi-modal large language models (MLLMs): detrimental concept drift within chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning during non-stationary reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), where reasoning token distributions evolve unpredictably, thereby introducing significant biases in final predictions. To address this, we are pioneers in establishing the theoretical bridge between concept drift theory and RFT processes by formalizing CoT's autoregressive token streams as non-stationary distributions undergoing arbitrary temporal shifts. Leveraging this framework, we propose a novel counterfact-aware RFT that systematically decouples beneficial distribution adaptation from harmful concept drift through concept graph-empowered LLM experts generating counterfactual reasoning trajectories. Our solution, Counterfactual Preference Optimization (CPO), enables stable RFT in non-stationary environments, particularly within the medical domain, through custom-tuning of counterfactual-aware preference alignment. Extensive experiments demonstrate our superior performance of robustness, generalization and coordination within RFT. Besides, we also contributed a large-scale dataset CXR-CounterFact (CCF), comprising 320,416 meticulously curated counterfactual reasoning trajectories derived from MIMIC-CXR. Our code and data are public.

As Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are increasingly employed in diverse decision-making problems using reward preferences, it becomes important to ensure that policies learned by these frameworks in mapping observations to a probability distribution of the possible actions are explainable. However, there is little to no work in the systematic understanding of these complex policies in a contrastive manner, i.e., what minimal changes to the policy would improve/worsen its performance to a desired level. In this work, we present COUNTERPOL, the first framework to analyze RL policies using counterfactual explanations in the form of minimal changes to the policy that lead to the desired outcome. We do so by incorporating counterfactuals in supervised learning in RL with the target outcome regulated using desired return. We establish a theoretical connection between Counterpol and widely used trust region-based policy optimization methods in RL. Extensive empirical analysis shows the efficacy of COUNTERPOL in generating explanations for (un)learning skills while keeping close to the original policy. Our results on five different RL environments with diverse state and action spaces demonstrate the utility of counterfactual explanations, paving the way for new frontiers in designing and developing counterfactual policies.

In recent years, there has been a rapidly expanding focus on explaining the predictions made by black-box AI systems that handle image and tabular data. However, considerably less attention has been paid to explaining the predictions of opaque AI systems handling time series data. In this paper, we advance a novel model-agnostic, case-based technique -- Native Guide -- that generates counterfactual explanations for time series classifiers. Given a query time series, T_{q}, for which a black-box classification system predicts class, c, a counterfactual time series explanation shows how T_{q} could change, such that the system predicts an alternative class, c'. The proposed instance-based technique adapts existing counterfactual instances in the case-base by highlighting and modifying discriminative areas of the time series that underlie the classification. Quantitative and qualitative results from two comparative experiments indicate that Native Guide generates plausible, proximal, sparse and diverse explanations that are better than those produced by key benchmark counterfactual methods.