Huggy Turf — Baseline Bernoulli (Winner Prediction)
Baseline shipped as a taste of what the full Huggy Database unlocks. Serious backtests need the full archive — see pricing below.
🇬🇧 English
Baseline winner-prediction model for French horse races, built on the Huggy Database — French Horse Races dataset. Meant as a reference point for evaluating more advanced models (XGBoost, LightGBM, neural networks).
Approach
Bernoulli logistic regression on final PMU odds plus 8 form features (recent finishes, jockey_win_rate_90d, trainer_win_rate_90d, draw, normalized distance, weight, age, sex).
Performance (Q4 2025 validation)
| Metric | Baseline | Public odds |
|---|---|---|
| Log loss | 0.298 | 0.312 |
| Top-1 accuracy | 22.4% | 21.1% |
| Flat ROI (1€ stake) | -8.2% | -14.5% |
Usage
import joblib, pandas as pd
model = joblib.load("baseline_bernoulli.joblib")
X = pd.read_parquet("runners_upcoming.parquet")
probs = model.predict_proba(X)[:, 1]
Limitations
- Not calibrated for real betting.
- No performance guarantee — research use only.
- The full dataset requires a commercial license — see https://huggydatabase.com/.
Get the full dataset
| Tier | Price | Contents |
|---|---|---|
| R&D Pack | 2 950€ | 2 years sample · full schema |
| Full Archive | 9 500€ | 1996-2026 · PMU/PMH spread · 40+ vars |
| Reasoning Engine | 45 000€+ | Source code · Monte-Carlo · Query Builder |
Order: https://huggydatabase.com/ · contact@huggydatabase.com
🇫🇷 Français
Modèle baseline de prédiction du gagnant d'une course hippique française à partir du dataset Huggy Database — French Horse Races. Sert de point de comparaison pour évaluer des modèles plus avancés (XGBoost, LightGBM, réseaux de neurones).
Approche
Régression logistique Bernoulli sur les cotes PMU finales et 8 features de forme (musique, jockey_win_rate_90j, entraineur_win_rate_90j, corde, distance normalisée, poids, âge, sexe).
Performance (validation Q4 2025)
| Métrique | Baseline | Cote publique |
|---|---|---|
| Log loss | 0.298 | 0.312 |
| Top-1 accuracy | 22.4% | 21.1% |
| ROI flat (mise 1€) | -8.2% | -14.5% |
Limites
- Modèle non calibré pour paris réels.
- Aucune garantie de performance : à des fins de recherche uniquement.
- Le dataset complet nécessite une licence commerciale — voir https://huggydatabase.com/.
Obtenir le dataset complet
| Offre | Prix | Contenu |
|---|---|---|
| R&D Pack | 2 950€ | 2 ans d'échantillon · schéma complet |
| Full Archive | 9 500€ | 1996-2026 · spread PMU/PMH · 40+ variables |
| Reasoning Engine | 45 000€+ | Code source · Monte-Carlo · Query Builder |
Commander : https://huggydatabase.com/ · contact@huggydatabase.com
Links / Liens
- Dataset : https://huggingface.co/datasets/huggy-engine/horse-racing-database-fr
- Space demo : https://huggingface.co/spaces/huggy-engine/huggy-database-query-builder
- Site : https://huggydatabase.com/
🔗 Huggy ecosystem / Écosystème Huggy
The same project is mirrored on several platforms. Everything points back to the canonical source, huggydatabase.com.
| Where | Link |
|---|---|
| 🌐 Official site — full archive, pricing, Query Builder | https://huggydatabase.com/ |
| 📄 Methodology article (Bernoulli, Poisson, calibration, ROI) | https://huggydatabase.com/methode |
| 🤗 Hugging Face — dataset | https://huggingface.co/datasets/huggy-engine/horse-racing-database-fr |
| 🤗 Hugging Face — baseline model (you are here) | https://huggingface.co/huggy-engine/turf-baseline-bernoulli |
| 🤗 Hugging Face — Query Builder Space | https://huggingface.co/spaces/huggy-engine/huggy-database-query-builder |
| 📊 Kaggle — dataset (free sample) | https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/huggydatabase/french-horse-races-1996-2026 |
| 📓 Kaggle — starter EDA notebook | https://www.kaggle.com/code/huggydatabase/french-horse-racing-pmu-eda-starter |
Kaggle and Hugging Face host the same free sample; the full 356,371-race archive lives at huggydatabase.com — contact@huggydatabase.com.
Kaggle et Hugging Face hébergent le même échantillon gratuit ; l'archive complète de 356 371 courses est sur huggydatabase.com — contact@huggydatabase.com.
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